The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy

1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

Political, Military, and Economic

Dynamics in Iraq: A Graphic Overview
Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair
Revised: October 2007

The Iraq Challenge

May have to leave Iraq suddenly for political reasons, but best
strategy is caution.
Need to seek to contain or limit Iran, resolve Iraqi-KurdishTurkish issue, and reassure Sunni allies have not abandoned
Iraqi Sunnis.
If surge succeeds, and conciliation happens, need to phase out
US forces at rate that best achieves Iraqi and regional stability.
If fails, need phased cuts tied to clear political efforts, aid, and
option of seeking to bloc civil war turning into military
bloodbath.
Need to reassure key allies that will not leave Gulf, will aid them
in dealing with Iran, and seeking some form of stability in Iraq.
Need clear basing plans.

Iraqi Governorates

Iraqi Sectarian & Ethnic Divisions

Iraqi Oil Fields by Governorate

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

High Profile Attacks

Improvised Explosive Devices

State of Al Qaida in Iraq

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

Baghdad Neighborhoods

11

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

Southern Baghdad

13

Diyala

14

Al Anbar & Iraq

15

Insurgents in Anbar

16

Sunni Response in Anbar

17

Al Anbar: Iraqi 7th Division

18

Al Anbar: Iraqi 1st Division

19

Al Anbar: Police Services

20

Al Anbar: Iraqi DBE

21

Tribal Engagement in Iraq

22

Overall Attack Patterns in MNF-I West

23

Civilian Tips in MNF-I West: July 2007

24

Incident Cycles in MNF-I West

25

Incidents by Initiator in MNF-I West

26

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

Decline in Attacks by City

28

Threat Reduction in Ramadi

29

Iraqi Security Force Capabilities

30

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006
Phone: +1-202-775-3270 Fax: +1-202-457-8746
Web: www.csis.org/burke

Iraq: US Aid Status

23,000

TOTAL
IRRF I
18,000

Admin Cost
Private Sector
Water & San

13,000

Transport
Health
8,000

Roads/Bridges
Edu/HR/Gov
Democracy

3,000

Jusitice

ed
bu
rs
Di
s

at
ed
O
bl
ig

Ap
po
rti
on
ed

-2,000

Co
m
m
itt
ed

Oil
Electricty
Security/Law

32

The Electricity Problem

33

Crude Oil Production

34

Crude Oil Revenues

35

Product Import Dependence

36

Iraqi Oil Infrastructure

37

Iraqi Oil Production

June 2006 August 2007
2.5

Production North
Production South
Total Production

1.5

0.5

0
Jun-06

Jul-06

Aug-06

Sep-06

Oct-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Source: DoD. Measuring Security and Stability on Iraq September 14, 2007. Pg. 12
Note: +/- 5%
38

Iraqi Oil Fields

39

Oil and Gas Resources in Anbar

40

Irans Oil Fields

41

Iran & Iraq as Case Studies

Demand for Total Liquids vs. Price
(Millions of Barrels Per Day - Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2007,

6.2
5.8

5
5

5.3

4.2

3.8 4

3.1

Iran
Iraq

2.1
2

1.9

1
0
1990

2005

2030-Low
Price

2030Reference
Case

2030-High
Price

Average world oil prices in 2030 are $36, $59, and $100 per barrel in 2030
42