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doi: 10.14355/ijrsa.2014.0402.03
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Abstract
This paper analyzes the various variables affecting
pedestrian road crashes, placing emphasis on the effect of
daily activity patterns and the built environment, including
the land use of the places. Study also develops a level of
safety model in terms of number of pedestrian accidents in
Chennai. First, eleven potential factors influencing
pedestrian level of safety are summarized: width of road,
width of sidewalk, average running speed of vehicles,
vehicular volume, pedestrian volume, percentage of
sidewalk area encroached, presence of crossing facilities,
sight distance, pedestrian refuge and median, lightings and
curb. The selected roads are typical of those prevalent in
urban areas of Chennai. With the survey data, a stepwise
regression analyses are carried out to develop a reliable
pedestrian level of safety model for road segments, suitable
for use in the vast majority of Indian urban areas. The study
reveals that the factors significantly influencing pedestrian
level of safety at road segments including width of sidewalk,
average running speed of vehicles, percentage of sidewalk
area encroached, presence of pedestrian refuge and median,
lightings and curb.
A model to predict the pedestrian safety level in terms of
number of pedestrian accidents is developed in this study
using regression analysis and integrated with GIS to
produce a colour coded maps showing the predicted
number of pedestrian accidents. The validation has been
done by comparing the predicted number of pedestrian
accidents with actual number of pedestrian accidents
occurred.
Keywords
Safety Model; Stepwise Regression Analysis; Pedestrian Level of
Safety; GIS
Introduction
Worldwide pedestrian-vehicle crashes are considered
as one of the major public health concern, but it is a
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Study Area
Velachery main road and Gandhi mandapam road in
Chennai city have been chosen as the study area for
this study. The Velachery main road on the south,
connects the fastest growing suburbs of south Chennai
and Mount Road (Anna Salai) at Guindy via Velachery.
A section of this road connects Guindy and Velachery
and is home to some of the oldest localities. Latitude
and longitude of Velacherry main road are 12o5522 N
and 80o 70 40 E respectively. Total length of
Velachery main road is 4.4 km and is shown in Fig.1.
Methodology
This section outlines the methodology proposed for
the pedestrian safety modelling and analysis using
GIS. The pedestrian safety model uses the of number
of pedestrian accidents as a measure to describe level
of safety as a function of variables such as width of
sidewalk, average running speed of vehicles,
percentage of sidewalk area encroached, presence of
pedestrian refuge and median, lightings and curb.
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GIS environment
Road is divided into
segments based on
the road
Digitization of road
segments and
inputting values for
variables in the
attribute table
Model development
Data collection
1. Pedestrian accident details
2. Width of road
3. Width of sidewalk
4. Average running speed of
vehicles
5. Vehicular volume
6. Pedestrian volume
7. Percentage of sidewalk area
encroached
8. Presence of crossing
facilities
9. Presence of pedestrian
refuge and median
10. Presence of lightings
11. Presence of curb
12. Sight distance
Preparation of raster
layer for each variable
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Stepwise Regression
analysis using PSPP
Raster calculator
Mathematical equation
R Square
0.90
0.81
Adjusted R
Square
0.79
Standard error of
estimate
0.61
Mathematical Equation
Validation
Model Development
A mathematical model is a simulation of phenomena
using mathematical equations to help forecast the
future trends or to better understand the phenomena.
Integration of this mathematical model with GIS
describes the behaviour of the system spatially in the
form of maps.
Variables Considered
In this study, dependent variable considered is the
number of pedestrian accidents and independent
variables considered are width of road, width of
sidewalk, average running speed of vehicles, vehicular
volume, pedestrian volume, percentage of sidewalk
area encroached, presence of crossing facilities, sight
distance, pedestrian refuge and median, lightings and
curb. Data of variables considered have been collected
for the study stretching from 2006 to 2011.
Stepwise Regression Analysis using PSPP Software
In the variable view of the PSPP software, both
Constant
Width of
sidewalk
Avg. running
speed of
vehicles
Percentage of
sidewalk area
encroached
Pedestrian
refuge and
median
Lightings
Curb
Std.
error
Beta
Significance
2.62
0.09
0.92
0.07
0.00
0.20
2.83
1.26
0.01
0.21
-0.06
0.03
-0.46
-2.39
0.02
0.01
0.01
-0.16
-0.58
0.57
-0.10
0.40
-0.04
-0.24
0.81
0.15
-0.48
0.60
0.54
0.04
-0.24
0.25
-0.89
0.80
0.38
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FIG.4 VALIDATION
GIS Analysis
Raster Layers
100
Raster Calculator
All six raster layers are loaded in the raster calculator.
The mathematical equation involving raster layers are
given in raster calculator and evaluated. The final
output is a colour coded map predicting the number of
accidents.
Results and Discussion
Safety planning and speed control is one of the most
important areas of transport safety because of the
observed correlations between speed level and
accident statistics (Lind, 1997; Archer, 2005). The
probability of a collision accident is an indicator and
can be used to evaluate traffic calming measures
(Davis 2000). The integration of mathematical model
with GIS gives output in the form of map which can
explain the behaviour of system spatially.
A model to predict the pedestrian safety level in terms
of number of pedestrian accidents developed using
regression analysis is integrated with GIS to produce a
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73.
Hakamies-Blomqvist, Liisa, 2003. Ageing Europe: The
Challenges and Opportunities for Transport Safety.
European Transport Safety Council, Brussels.
Lind, G., 1997. Strategic assessment of intelligent transport
systems: a user oriented review of models and methods.
Ph.D. Thesis. Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
Luoma, Juha., and Peltola, Harri. Does facing traffic
improve pedestrian safety?, Accident Analysis and
Prevention 50 (2013) 1207 1210.
Moudon, Anne Vernez., Lin, Lin., Hurvitz, Philip., and
Reeves, Paula. Risk of Pedestrian Collision Occurrence:
Case Control Study of Collision Locations on State
Routes in King County and Seattle, Washington.
Transportation
Research
Record:
Journal
of
the
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
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