27 November 2013

TREASURY RESEARCHNews Bulletin

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange News

A set of US data overnight revealed that the housing sector remains

relatively robust on opposed to markets expectation that the
tightening in financial condition would slowdown the sector.
September building permits exceeded expectation with an increase of
5.2% while S&P case-Shiller sustained its upward momentum for the
same month.
However, consumer confidence in Nov dropped on the back of job
growth pessimism but we see this to be a short term setback. Dollar
continues to remain steady at 80.6 on the back thin flows ahead of
the Thanksgiving holidays tomorrow.
A slew of data will be released today such as initial jobless claims,
Durable goods orders and University of Michigan data for further clues
on the state of the US economy.
Month end flows are likely to drive AxJ FX with familiar trading range
will dominate the market today except for THB which continues to
face political uncertainties.

Markets

Last

% Chg

1w % Chg
0.66

Equity
DJIA

16072.80

0.00

S&P 500

1802.75

0.01

0.83

MSCI EM

1005.40

-0.52

-1.87

12.81

0.16

-4.33

USD LIBOR 3M

0.2366

0.32

-1.05

Euribor 3M

0.2300

1.32

5.51

JPY TIBOR 3M

0.2209

0.00

0.00

VIX
Money Market

Commodities
Gold Spot

1243.20

0.03

-0.08

WTI Crude

93.50

-0.19

-0.37

Source: Bloomberg

Protestors gained entry into the Interior Ministry and removed 4 other
officials,amplifying its protest against the present Government.
Confidence vote have begun in the Parliament with a decision
expected to be announced by today or tomorrow.
It will be interesting to find out what the BOT will do as the central
bank deliberates monetary policy today. Consensus are looking for
BoT to maintain its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% but the question is
whether the ongoing political clashes would change their perception
given its impact on the near term economic outlook. All eyes will be
on the statement if rate remains on hold.

Today's Technical Outlook

G10

EUR

JPY

Regional Swap Points / Implied Yields

GBP

AUD

NZD

C AD

C HF

24hr Outlook
Resistance
Support
AXJ

Support

C NY

INR

Spot

6.0919

62.52

1060 3.2189 1.2513

KRW

MYR

SGD

IDR

THB

11765 32.08

1.3613

101.97

1.6271

0.9255

0.8316

1.0577

0.9141

O/N

1.50

0.07

4.45

0.01

2.05

0.20

1.3593

101.62

1.6244

0.9191

0.8255

1.0559

0.9103

1W

21.50

10.50

0.52

16.00

0.06

14.50

1.39

1.3534

101.04

1.6164

0.9076

0.8144

1.0522

0.9045

1M

70.00

48.50

2.30

70.00

-0.05

69.00

5.55

1.3495

100.81

1.6111

0.9025

0.8094

1.0503

0.9025

3M

160.00

138.00

6.30 190.50

-0.85

207.00 16.25

C NY

INR

KRW

MYR

SGD

IDR

THB

6M

240.00

269.50 11.10 370.00

-3.75

410.00 32.05

9M

311.75

390.25 13.50 530.00

-6.50

630.00 47.50

508.50 18.20 695.00

-9.50

848.00 63.88

24hr Outlook
Resistance

Tenor

6.0968

62.70

1063

3.2306

1.2574

11979

32.22

12M

403.75

6.0943

62.61

1061

3.2248

1.2545

11872

32.15

Implied Ylds

C NY

INR

KRW

MYR

SGD

IDR

THB

6.0897

62.35

1058

3.2136

1.2489

11584

31.98

3M Onshore

1.21

9.10

2.63

2.62

0.21

7.20

2.27

6.0876

62.19

1057

3.2082

1.2462

11403

31.89

3M Offshore

2.93

9.46

3.12

2.04

0.21

2.71

4.68

Disclosure & Disclaimer

By accepting this commentary, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such commentary
in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the
Restrictions on Distributions set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of
law.This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB Investment Bank Berhad
(CIMB). This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this
material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or
passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of
CIMB.This commentary has been prepared by the Sales Research team at the Group Treasury division of CIMB (Group
Treasury Research). The information herein is not intended to constitute research as it is defined by applicable laws.
CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have
positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this commentary or any securities related thereto and may from time
to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its
related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this commentary and may from time to
time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them
to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment
banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory
or other services from any entity mentioned in this commentary. The views expressed in this commentary accurately reflect
the personal views of the analyst(s) at Group Treasury Research about the subject securities or issuers and the
compensation of the analyst(s), is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the performance of the Group Treasury
divisions activities. CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this commentary from receiving any compensation,
incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or
view of, a particular company. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is based on his/their coverage of
company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the personnel
involved in the preparation of this commentary may also participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above.
In reviewing this commentary, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give
rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on
request.
The information contained in this commentary is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue
of this commentary. This commentary does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may
require. CIMB does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy,
completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this commentary and accordingly,
neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall not be liable in any manner whatsoever for any
consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any
reliance thereon or usage thereof.This commentary is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes
only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMBs clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment
objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary. The
information and opinions in this commentary are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer,
recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments
thereof. This commentary is issued and distributed by Group Treasury Research at CIMB. The views and opinions in this
commentary are that of Group Treasury Research as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Group Treasury Research
has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this commentary.Investors are advised to make their own
independent evaluation of the information contained in this commentary, consider their own individual investment
objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal,
business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies)
covered in this commentary. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all
categories of investors. This commentary is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity
who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.