SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
POLICY WORKING BRIEFS
APRIL 2010
UNICEF POLICY AND PRACTICE
Aftershocks from the Global Food Crisis
• A full two years since the
food prices shocks began,
international food prices
remain well above their
10 year average. Domestic
food prices in many
countries have remained
“sticky” and in some
countries have continued
their ascent
• Policies specifically targeted
at children and women
(notably mothers) to help
ensure their nutrition
security are urgently
needed, including policies
to boost social protection
interventions, strengthen
social services, and provide
food and cash transfers
• To help secure the
rights and wellbeing of
future generations of
children, policymakers
must also respond to the
longstanding challenges
related to food security and
poverty, through national
policies and international
collective action
When the global economic crisis began to unfold in full force in 2009, high
food and fuel prices received much less attention. Nevertheless, an analysis
of international and national data suggests that a food crisis persists in many
countries a full two years since food price shocks began to unfold in early
2008. This spells more difficult days ahead for many poor households whose
purchasing power continues to be squeezed, first by high food prices and later by
a decline in income as a result of the global economic crisis. This has particularly
intense impacts on children as the foundation of health and well-being is laid in
childhood. Evidence shows that where children and mothers have poor health,
nutrition and education the consequences can last a lifetime. Children and
poor households will continue to face severe stress, as many of the factors that
contributed to high and volatile food prices remain unaddressed.
International food prices have fallen, but remain well
above their long-term average levels
While international prices for major food grains have decreased significantly since
the initial food price shocks, they remain high compared to their historical ten year
averages:
• Rice fell from its May 2008 peak by 48%, but remains 75% above its ten-year
average;
• Maize fell from its June 2008 peak by 46%, but remains 28% above its ten-year
average;
• Soybean fell from its July 2008 peak by 41%, but remains 32% above its ten-year
average;
• Wheat fell from its February 2008 peak by 57%, but remains 22% above its ten-
year average.
Figures 1 through 3 illustrate these changes, while Figure 4 shows that even the
present price of oil appears to be above its ten-year average by about 54%.
National food prices remain “sticky”
In response to the international food price spikes in 2008, many governments
 intervened in food markets—notably through
export controls (for food exporters), import
tariff reductions (for food importers), and
food price subsidies—in an effort to blunt the
impact on domestic food prices (Dawe, 2008).
These policies put a heavy strain on public
sector budgets, and it remains to be seen
whether governments will be able to sustain
many of them in the context of tighter public
budgets in the medium term as a result of the
global economic slowdown.
A brief review of the recent price trends for
main staple crops in selected countries (and
regions) also suggests that domestic food
prices in many countries have remained high,
and in some cases—for example maize in
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and rice in Hanoi,
Vietnam—prices have actually headed upward
again in recent months. Compared to their
three-year averages, national grain prices
remain high. At the time of writing, the price
of:
• Retail Rice in the Philippines is over 11%
above its three-year average (see Figure
5);
• Wholesale Maize in Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania is almost 62% above its three-
year average (see Figure 6);
• Retail Rice in Hanoi, Vietnam is 36% above
its three-year average (see Figure 7);
• Retail Maize in Zambia is almost 38%
above its three-year average (see Figure
8).
Selected excerpts from recent (October 2009 to
February 2010) FAO reports indicate that large
numbers of people still face high and volatile
domestic food prices, with a significant degree
of variation in food access across and within
countries:
• Congo, DR. There is a good deal of
variation in food prices across the
country—Kisangani for example
appears to have lower commodity prices
2 UNICEF
compared to Bunia (close to the Uganda
border). FAO monitoring of the prices of
17 food products in 23 cities reveal that
the average price for all markets/food
products covered (or national average)
was 41 percent higher than 12 months
earlier.
• Guatemala. Households are depleting
food reserves rapidly, and food shortages
are occurring earlier than expected in
drought-affected areas in the east of the
Corredor Seco and the western highlands.
Due to expected food shortages,
February 2010 prices of white maize
increased approximately 12 per cent
over December 2009 prices. The end of
the period of high demand for labourers
to harvest coffee and cane sugar is
expected to compound poor households’
challenges as seasonal income sources
will also tend to decline.
• India. Due in part to poor crop
performance for the main season crops,
food price inflation is estimated at 17.40
percent. Prices of wheat and rice have
been rising since June 2009 and in many
parts of the country food price inflation
is higher than overall consumer price
inflation. There is also a strong import
demand for rice even as international
prices are rising.
• Kenya. There are reports of inflated
transportation costs for imported maize,
resulting in above average food prices.
The wholesale price of maize was USD
408 per tonne in Nairobi in January
2010—much higher than USD 307 per
tonne 12 months before and USD 223
per tonne 24 months earlier. Low-income
families have restricted access to food,
particularly in urban areas where wages
have not caught up with food price
increases.
• Malawi. Prices of maize have started to
rise since late 2009. Southern areas like
 Nsanje and Chikwawa have seen maize
prices rise faster than in other areas—for
instance from MKW 29/kg in May 2009
to MWK 47/kg in early January 2010 in
Nsanje. In the Southern Malawi districts
of Balaka, Chikwawa and Nsanje, the
estimated number of food insecure
populations has increased from 147,000
in June 2009 to 275,000 in early 2010.
These districts experienced a significant
maize crop reduction due to a prolonged
dry spell in 2009. In addition, households’
income from cotton sales has dropped,
reducing the purchasing power of
affected populations.
• Mongolia. Dzud weather conditions
(an extremely snowy winter in which
livestock are unable to find fodder
through the snow cover) are a major
factor behind food problems in the
country. The ongoing Dzud has killed 1.7
million head of livestock, an estimated
economic cost of about USD 62 million.
An estimated 21,000 families roughly
12% of the total herder households -
have lost more than 50% of their animals.
Although wheat flour prices have come
down steadily since 2008, they remain
well above the pre-crisis levels.
• Philippines. National retail prices of the
main staple rice remain high, following
international price trends. Since the peak
in June of 2008, prices have dropped
14% but remain higher than the pre-peak
period of late 2007-early 2008. Domestic
markets have followed the international
export market and experienced
drastically fluctuating prices over the last
year.
• Tanzania. The onset of the hungry season
in Tanzania brought climbing maize
prices. In the Dar es Salaam market,
January 2010 wholesale maize prices hit
record levels. Moderate food insecurity
exists in parts of north-eastern and
central Tanzania. The high transportation
costs of moving food from surplus to
deficit areas is reflected in high food prices,
negatively impacting households.
• Vietnam. Domestic rice prices remain high;
in fact the retail price in the Hanoi market
surpassed the previous peak reached in May
of 2008. This recent increase in the domestic
market is consistent with international rice
price trends and is influenced by strong
export demand.
• Zambia. In spite of increased domestic
maize availability, the national average
price remains high. With the lean season
approaching, maize supplies are diminishing
and prices have started to climb. Small-scale
farmers have exhausted their own stocks
and vulnerable populations in chronically
food insecure areas may struggle. High
transportations costs and slower pace of
imports, compared to last year, are likely
contributing factors to the high domestic
price of maize.
Critical messages for
policymakers
In light of rising food prices, it is vital and urgent
that policies are in place specifically targeting
children and women (notably mothers) in order
to help ensure their nutrition security, including:
• policies to boost social protection
interventions such as school feeding and
maternal health programs, as well as food
and cash transfers,
• stronger social services as part of a broader
policy response to protect the basic
livelihoods and nutrition of vulnerable
groups, as well as to help ensure that social
and economic recovery is inclusive.
More broadly, ensuring food security in the
longer-term requires policies to address unique
challenges in each country, as reflected by the
brief context-specific review earlier. Past episodes
AFTERSHOCKS FROM THE GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS 3
 of food crises—including the present case— detached from immediate child-focused
are not just an issue of high prices, nor simply policies, including social protection
addressed by boosting supply. The crises that measures—in fact, the rights and
erupted in 2008-2009 are likely part of the long wellbeing of future generations will hinge
standing challenges faced by many developing on effective actions on all these fronts.
countries whose agricultural sectors—where
most of the poor are—have contracted or have Selected References
remained stagnant, and where overall incomes
have remained low. 1. Conceição, Pedro and Ronald U.
Mendoza. 2009a. “Is the global food
crisis over?” Article posted on the
To begin to address these, policymakers will
VoxEU.org Policy Portal, April 18,
need to respond through a combination of 2009. [http://www.voxeu.org/index.
national and international policy reforms. This php?q=node/3459].
spans: 2. Conceição, Pedro and Ronald U.
• addressing supply bottlenecks at the Mendoza. 2009b. “Anatomy of the
Global Food Crisis.” Third World
domestic level,
Quarterly 30(6):1159-1182.
• increasing agricultural investments and 3. FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity
promoting more lucrative and secure in the World 2009. Rome. [ftp://ftp.fao.
urban livelihoods, org/docrep/fao/012/i0876e/i0876e.
• strengthening the incentives and capacity pdf].
4. FAO. 2010. Crop Prospects and Food
of farmers to engage in food production
Situation, February 2010. [http://
(e.g. through stable access to credit), www.fao.org/docrep/012/ak343e/
• undertaking a more pro-poor and ak343e00.pdf].
more inclusive social and economic 5. Mendoza, Ronald U. 2010. “Inclusive
development strategy, Crises, Exclusive Recoveries and
Policies to Prevent a Double Whammy
• cooperating internationally to address
for the Poor.” Mimeo. New York.
cross-border factors, such as climate 6. UNICEF. 2009. “Tracking Progress
change, reforming bio-fuel policies and in Child and Maternal Nutrition,
pursuing possible reforms to mitigate the November 2009.” [http://www.unicef.
vicissitudes of commodity futures trade. org/publications/index_51656.html].
7. World Bank. 2010. “Food Price Watch,
February 2010.” Poverty Reduction
These policy recommendations are not and Equity Group (PREM). World Bank.

About the Working Brief Series

This Working Brief was compiled by Ronald Mendoza and Megan Torres of Economic and Social Policy Unit of UNICEF’s Division of Policy and
Practice (DPP).

For more information on this issue, or to share comments, please contact rmendoza@unicef.org. or mtorres@unicef.org. Working Briefs are
prepared to facilitate greater exchange of knowledge and stimulate analytical discussion on social policy issues. Their findings, interpretations
and conclusions do not necessarily reflect the policies or view of UNICEF. The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal
status of any country or territory, or of its authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers.

The editors of the series are Gaspar Fajth, Isabel Ortiz and David Stewart of the Policy, Advocacy and Knowledge Management Section. For
more information on the series, or to submit a working brief, please contact gfajth@unicef.org, iortiz@unicef.org or dstewart@unicef.org.

4 UNICEF
 Aftershocks from the Global Food Crisis
Annex 1: Charts and Graphs, International Data

Figure 1: Rice, 2000-2010 Figure 2: Maize, 2000-2010

800 350

700 300

600
250
500
200
400
US$/ton

US$/ton
150
300
100
200

100 50

0 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Note: Price for White Broken Rice, Thai A1 Super, f.o.b Bangkok. Note: Price for US No.2, Yellow, U.S. Gulf.
Source: FAO International Commodity Price Database Source: FAO International Commodity Price Database
[http://www.fao.org/es/esc/prices/PricesServlet.jsp?lang=en&ccode=2311]. [http://www.fao.org/es/esc/prices/PricesServlet.jsp?lang=en&ccode=2311].

Figure 3: Wheat 2000-2010 Figure 4: Oil, 2000-2010

160.00

500 140.00

450
120.00
400
350 100.00
US$ per barrel

300
US$/ton

250 80.00

200
60.00
150
100 40.00
50
20.00
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.00
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Note: Price for No.2, Soft Red Winter Wheat , US Gulf (Tuesday). Note: Oil prices refer to Brent US dollars per barrel.
Source: FAO International Commodity Price Database Source: US Department of Energy
[http://www.fao.org/es/esc/prices/PricesServlet.jsp?lang=en&ccode=2311]. [http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/prices.html].

5 UNICEF
 Aftershocks from the Global Food Crisis
Annex 2: Charts and Graphs, national Data

Figure 5: Rice Philippines, 2007-2010 Figure 6: Maize Tanzania, 2007-2010

450

40 400

35
350
30
300
25

US Dollar/Tonne
250
20
Peso/Kg

15 200

10 150

5
100

0
50
Sep 2007

Sep 2008

Sep 2009
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010
May 2007

May 2008

May 2009

May-07

May-08

May-09
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
Note: Price for regular milled rice in the Philippines (national average). Note: Wholesale price for maize in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, National Database Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, National Database
[http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/]. [http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/].

Figure7: Rice Vietnam, 2007-2010 Figure 8: Maize Zambia, 2007-2010

12000 35000

10000 30000

25000
8000
Dong/kg

Kwacha/20kg

20000
6000

15000
4000

10000
2000

5000
0
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010
Jul 2007

Jul 2008

Jul 2009

0
Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09
Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10
Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Note: Retail price for rice in Hanoi, Vietnam. Note: Retail price for maize in Zambia (national average).
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, National Database Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System, National Database
[http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/]. [http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool/].

AFTERSHOCKS FROM THE GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS 6