OLEFINSCAN

Volume 30 / Issue 22 / August 21, 2015

Ethylene Assessments

Ethylene

Europe
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Average
FD NWE*
1006.00-1010.00
976.00-980.00 973.00-977.00 969.00-973.00 949.00-953.00 974.60-978.60
CIF NWE**
1114.00-1118.00 1077.00-1081.00 1077.00-1081.00 1085.00-1089.00 1077.00-1081.00 1086.00-1090.00
CIF MED**
1077.00-1081.00

Europe

Several deals heard

Bearishness regarding CP

Monthly Contract Price (Aug)*: 1035.00-1035.00 FD NWE

Platts Cracker Margin (spot):
Platts Cracker Margin (contract):

($/mt) (Eur/mt)
890.27
784.79
971.68
878.45

* Eur/mt, **$/mt

US (/lb)
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Average
FD USG M1 AUG 21.750-22.250 22.500-23.000 22.750-23.250 24.250-24.750 22.750-23.250 22.800-23.300
FD USG M2 SEP 22.500-23.000 23.250-23.750 23.500-24.000 25.000-25.500 23.500-24.000 23.550-24.050
Posted Contract Price (AUG ): NA-NA Delivered
Net Contract Price (AUG ): NA-NA Delivered

Asia ($/mt)
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Average
FOB Korea
869-871

CFR SE Asia 899-901 899-901 899-901 894-896 885-887

895.20-897.20
CFR NE Asia 948-950 948-950 944-946 918-920 909-911
933.40-935.40
Asian ethylene spot assessments reflect LC 0-30 days.

Propylene Assessments
Europe (Eur/mt)
Poly Grade Monday Tuesday
Wednesday Thursday
Friday
Average
FD NWE
860.00-864.00 858.00-862.00 857.00-861.00 856.00-860.00 834.00-838.00 853.00-857.00
CIF NWE
851.00-855.00 849.00-853.00 848.00-852.00 847.00-851.00 825.00-829.00 844.00-848.00
Chem Grade Spot Friday
Average
FD NWE
808.00-812.00

CIF NWE
778.00-782.00

Poly Grade Monthly Contract Price (Aug): 930-930

US (/lb)
Dlvd USG Monday Tuesday
Wednesday Thursday
Friday
Average
Poly Grade M1 AUG
29.000-29.500 29.000-29.500 28.750-29.250 27.750-28.250 27.500-28.000 28.400-28.900
Poly Grade M2 SEP
29.000-29.500 29.000-29.500 28.750-29.250 27.750-28.250 27.500-28.000 28.400-28.900
Chem Grade

24.50-25.00

Ref Grade
19.750-20.250 19.750-20.250 18.875-19.375 18.750-19.250 18.750-19.250 19.175-19.675
Poly Grade Contract Price (AUG ): 33.00-33.00 Delivered
Chem Grade Contract Price (AUG ): 31.50-31.50 Delivered

Asia ($/mt)
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Average
FOB Korea 824-826 820-822 811-813 809-811 797-799
812.20-814.20
CFR Taiwan

834-836

CFR SE Asia

782-784

FOB Japan

784-786

CFR China
857-859
855-857
849-851
849-851
837-839
849.40-851.40
Asian ethylene spot assessments reflect LC 0-30 days.

www.platts.com

Now online at pmc.platts.com

Northwest European ethylene prices

continued their descent this week, closing
Friday at Eur951/mt, down Eur20/mt on the
day. This week, a US cargo and a Singaporean
cargo were both heard fixed to Europe. This
continues the flurry of US cargoes that have
already been fixed to Europe in the past
month. Domestically, 7,000 mt was heard
traded Thursday. One buyer said that
improved rates at Shells Moerdijk cracker in
the Netherlands along with derivative outages
had weighed on prices. Production of certain
other cracker products as well as stabilization
of the overall supply chain may take time, a
spokesman said in mid-July. Shell shut its
petrochemical units at Moerdijk last October
following a steam leak in the plants utilities
systems. Spot ethylene in Europe is currently
pegged at a discount of 5% to the September
contract price. The September CP has yet to
settle. The August CP settled at Eur1,035/mt
FD NWE, down Eur70 on the month. Sources
expect a similar drop in September, tracking
the naphtha price. Naphtha was assessed at
$457.25/mt CIF NWE when propylene last
settled, and was assessed at $403.75/mt
Wednesday, its lowest since January. A
number of trades were heard this week. One
spot deal was heard done for 3kt, FD NWE
October arrival, at MCP -9%. The buyer
confirmed. Another spot deal was heard done
for 4.5kt, CIF NWE October arrival, at $937/mt,
also confirmed by the buyer. Another spot
trade was heard done at September MCP -5%,
CIF NWE, 3kt, September supply. Seller
confirmed. Another spot trade was heard
done for 1kt, September delivery, on the ARG
at September MCP -5%. Both parties
confirmed. Another spot trade was heard
done at MCP-5%, 6kt, September/October FD
NWE, at MCP month of delivery. Buyer
confirmed. Another spot deal was heard done
at MCP flat, for 2kt, delivered ARG, for delivery
H2 August. Both parties confirmed.

PEtroChEmICAls

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

Ethylene Glycol Assessments

Rationale

Europe

Ethylene was assessed at Eur951/mt, down

Eur20/mt on the day, and Eur82/mt on the
week. Indications for August were pegged at
MCP flat, and September was assessed at
Eur917/mt, a discount to Platts September
MCP estimate of Eur965/mt.

Spot Friday
MEG FCA NWE T2 (Eur/mt)
MEG FD NWE T2 (Eur/mt)
MEG CIF NWE T2 (Eur/mt)
MEG CIF NWE T2 ($/mt)

808-812
838-842
768-772
871-875

MEG Monthly Contract Price (Aug): NA-NA (Eur/mt)

United States

DEG FCA NWE T2 (Eur/mt)

DEG FD NWE T2 (Eur/mt)

918.00-922.00
948.00-952.00

Dow Chemical and DuPont restarting

Texas plants

US (/lb)

Spot slides to 22 cents/lb on Monday

Spot Friday
FOB USG A/F*

32.00-33.00

Fiber Grade Monthly Contract Price (Aug ): 42.45-42.95

Asia ($/mt)
Spot Friday
CFR SE Asia

696-698

China assessments
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Average
CFR China 751-753 731-733 731-733 711-713 693-695
723.40-725.40
Domestic
5855-5875 5760-5780 5810-5830 5660-5680 5440-5460
5705.00-5725.00
CFR China assessments in $/mt. Domestic in Yuan/mt

MEG CP Nomination (Aug) CFR Asia:

MEGlobal: 1000

Sabic: 1020

Shell: 1020

*A/F denotes anti-freeze grade. Asian ethylene glycol assessments are basis L/C 90 days.

Butadiene Assessments
Europe
Spot Friday
FD NWE (Eur/mt)
FOB Rdam ($/mt)

Weekly Average

723.00-727.00 723.00-727.00
756.00-760.00 770.00-774.00

Butadiene Monthly Contract FD NWE AUG: 770-770 (Eur/mt)

US (/lb)
Spot Friday
CIF USG

41.50-42.50

Monthly Contract Price (Aug ): 36-47

Asia ($/mt)
Spot Friday
FOB Korea
CFR Taiwan
CFR SE Asia
CFR China

914-916
914-916
894-896
914-916

NWE Crude C4 / Raffinate 1 assessments ($/mt)

Spot CIF NWE Crude C4
Spot CIF NWE Raffinate 1
Crude C4 factor
Raffinate 1 factor

419.75-421.75
485.28-486.28
1.10
1.27

Ethylene

Propylene

Net
Posted

PGP
CGP

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

918.00-920.00

915.00-917.00

Rationale

Last settled US olefins contracts (cts/lb)

32.75 JUL
37.25 JUL

Weekly Average

US spot ethylene declined 0.25 cent/lb week on

week for prompt-month material, assessed
Friday at 22.75-23.25 cents/lb delivered. The
forward-month assessment also slipped 0.25
cent/lb to 23.5-24 cents/lb FD. August prices
dropped to 22 cents/lb on Monday, following
talks oversupply, strong ethylene production
rates and two polyethylene outages, sources
said. On Tuesday, DuPont suffered a production
upset and an outage at its Orange, Texas, plant,
while on Wednesday afternoon, Dow Chemical
suffered a process upset at its LHC#8 unit in
Freeport, after a lightening storm, sources said.
The two production disruptions pushed prices
up to 26 cents/lb MtB Wms late Wednesday
afternoon and the early Thursday morning,
however the hike in prices was short-lived, as
Dow was heard resuming normal operations
early Friday morning, while DuPont was to
resume normal operations on August 24,
sources said. On August 15, Flint Hills Resources
took its Port Arthur, Texas, steam cracker offline
as part of a two-month planned turnaround,
market sources said, in response to the
companys filing with state regulators. The
company expects to complete the turnaround
by October 14, Flint Hills said in a filing with the
Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
Sources said that the unexpected outages,
combined with the planned outage of the
largest merchant ethylene producer in Texas
was making prices susceptible to sudden hikes.
The last long-term planned outage at the site
started on September 21,2012, and was
completed in November of 2012, according to
Platts data. The cracker produces an estimated
634,000 mt/year of ethylene.

33.00 AUG
31.50 AUG

US spot ethylene was assessed Friday at

22.75-23.25 cents/lb FD USG for prompt month
delivery, down 0.25 cents/lb week on week,
and 0.25 cent/lb lower at 23.5-24 cents/lb FD

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

Platts Rubber Index ($/kg)

FOB Basis Singapore Monday Tuesday
TSR 20 (M+1)
1.28-1.29 1.27-1.29
TSR 20 (M+2)
1.28-1.29 1.27-1.29
RSS 3 (M+1)
1.36-1.37 1.34-1.36
RSS 3 (M+2)
1.37-1.38 1.35-1.37

Wednesday Thursday
1.27-1.28 1.26-1.27
1.27-1.28 1.26-1.27
1.34-1.36 1.34-1.36
1.35-1.37 1.35-1.37

Friday
1.26-1.28
1.26-1.28
1.35-1.36
1.36-1.37

Average
1.27-1.28
1.27-1.28
1.35-1.36
1.36-1.37

Latin America

Technically Specified Rubber price trend

1.6

USG for next-month deliveries. Augusts assessment was based on a

deal at 23 cents/lb MtB Wms. September ranges were at 20.25-26
cents/lb MtB Wms, and Septembers assessment presumed the 0.75
cent/lb contango structure seen in markets throughout the week, per
market feedback. July contracts settled down 1 cent/lb to 32.75 cents/
lb for the net transaction price, sources said. August contracts had not
settled by close of assessment.

Argentina bouncing back from Winter

($/kg)

Downstream PE import prices tumble

TSR20 M+1

1.5

1.4

1.3
24-Jun

01-Jul

08-Jul

15-Jul

23-Jul

30-Jul

06-Aug

More charts at pmc.platts.com

Platts SBR weekly prices

NWE SBR October 16


ESBR 1500
ESBR 1502
ESBR 1723
ESBR 1783
SSBR 5025

FD NWE
(/mt)
1048.00-1052.00
1048.00-1052.00
978.00-982.00
978.00-982.00
1378.00-1382.00

Change
on week
-25.00
-25.00
-25.00
-25.00
-25.00

FOB NWE
($/mt)
1191.00-1195.00
1191.00-1195.00
1112.00-1116.00
1112.00-1116.00
1566.00-1570.00

Change
on week
-29.00
-29.00
-28.00
-28.00
-29.00

Change
on week
25.00

CFR SE Asia
($/mt)
1279.00-1281.00

Change
on week
25.00

Asian SBR October 16

ESBR 1502

CFR NE Asia
($/mt)
1229.00-1231.00

Asia

Global Ethylene Prices

1500

($/mt)

CFR NEA falls $39/mt on week

CFR NE Asia
CIF NWE Ethylene
Spot Ethylene FD USGC

1200

900

600
23-Jun

Etileno XXI, Brazils Braskem and Mexicos Grupo Idesas joint worldscale ethylene and polyethylene project under construction in the
Veracruz state of Mexico, has surpassed the 96% completion mark, a
Braskem-Idesa spokeswoman said. The project is still on track to start
up at the end of the year, spokeswoman Yeraseth Bello said. Brazils
Braskem holds 75% ownership and Mexicos Grupo Idesa holds 25% in
the joint venture, which will include a one million mt/year ethylenecapacity steam cracker as well as three polyethylene plants, according
to Braskem-Idesa. The completion mark also included the purchase of
the railways and the logistics platform, the company source said.
Braskem-Idesa will have a fleet of 1,300 rail cars all with the capacity to
hold up to 90-mt each. The station will be able to park 450 rail cars at
once and will operate on 23 kilometers of rail track across 20 acres,
according to Braskem-Idesa data. Originally slated to be completed
during the first half of 2015, Etileno XXI was expected to start operations
in Q4 2015, sources have said. Etileno XXI was on pace to become the
first new steam cracker built in North America in more than a decade. In
Argentina, Dow continues to running its crackers at capacity as the
winter -- and the colder months -- were coming to an end, a source
with knowledge of company operations said. Petrochemical producers
in Argentina typically see feedstock supply curtailments during the
winter months, when heating and other residential use tends to be at
its highest. In downstream markets, PE pricing was stable to lower in
Peru and Brazil, as US-origin offers were considered aggressivelypriced and bearish market conditions -- including sliding demand -kept buyers away, sources said. Sluggish economic conditions in both
Brazil and Peru continued to hamper trade activity amid weakened
domestic currencies and a strong US dollar.

3-Jul

15-Jul

More charts at pmc.platts.com

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

27-Jul

Tianjin port disruption diverts cargoes

Asian ethylene sank $9/mt day on day and $39/mt week on week to $910/
mt CFR Northeast Asia Friday, a six-month low, due to a surplus of
cargoes and weaker crude futures. CFR Northeast Asia was last assessed
at $910/mt on February 12. October ICE Brent crude stood at $46.14/b at
0830 GMT, down $3.18/b week on week. Spot activity was thin for most of
the week but picked up Friday. A trader said the disruption of port
operations at Tianjin had resulted in one downstream derivative end-user
having to offer its cargoes elsewhere. Since Monday, Chinas Tianjin
Transport and Logistics Council has indefinitely suspended the loading of
dangerous chemicals at all berths within the Tianjin municipality. The

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

suspension comes after two explosions at a warehouse on August 12 that

killed 114 people. On the production side, Thailands PTT Global Chemical
plans to restart its ethane-based I4-2 steam cracker at Map Ta Phut by
August 26 after it unexpectedly shut Sunday, a source close to the
company said Friday. The outage was a result of an unspecified technical
problem but the situation is now under control, the source said. I4-2 has a
design capacity of 400,000 mt/year of ethylene.

Rationale
The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene marker was assessed at $910/mt CFR
NEA Friday, down $9/mt from Thursday. A confirmed deal was concluded
at $910/mt CFR NEA for a cargo of 3,000-3,500 mt for H2 September. An
offer of $905/mt was heard after the Platts Market on Close assessment
process for about 4,000 mt of ethylene for H1 September. CFR Southeast
Asia also fell $9/mt to $886/mt CFR SEA, in line with Northeast Asian
prices. FOB Korea prices were assessed $39/mt lower week on week at
$870/mt, tracking CFR NEA price assessments.

Ethylene Glycol

Europe

and a shortage of imported material providing bullish sentiment on the

other. Prices were heard pegged at Eur790-840/mt FCA NWE. Platts
assessed within the range heard. The initial August monthly contract
price settlement at Eur986/mt, a decrease of Eur102/mt, has not been
followed. One buyer said this price does not reflect the market
situation sufficiently. It is thought that it should be lower than that. A
producer said the initial settlement was too low. Derivative
polyethylene terephthalate spot and contract prices fell this week amid
a combination of a decline in feedstock and oversupply. PET spot
prices were assessed down Eur30/mt on the week Wednesday at
Eur930/mt FD NWE, while contract prices were down Eur10/mt to
Eur975/mt FD NWE. MEG feedstock ethylene prices fell as well. The
daily spot price declined Eur4/mt Thursday to Eur971/mt. One ethylene
buyer said this week that a similar fall to last months contract price
was expected for September, and this had filtered through to
downstream purchasing. The ethylene contract was settled at
Eur1,035/mt FD NWE in August, down Eur70/mt, falling for the first time
since February. A shortage of MEG arrivals in Europe provided bullish
sentiment. Diethylene glycol prices were heard pegged at Eur900-935/
mt. Platts assessed stable on the week at Eur920/mt FCA NWE, within
the range heard, on stable MEG prices.

Rationale

Bearish signals upstream and downstream

But imports in short supply

European monoethylene glycol spot prices were assessed stable on

the week at Eur810/mt FCA NWE and Eur770/mt CIF NWE, caught
between bearish upstream and downstream signals on the one hand

MEG prices were assessed stable on the week at Eur810/mt FCA

NWE and Eur770/mt CIF NWE, caught between bearish upstream and
downstream signals, and a shortage of imported material. DEG
prices were heard pegged at Eur900-935/mt. Platts assessed stable
on the week at Eur920/mt FCA NWE, within the range heard, on
stable MEG prices.

Global Production Update

Company Location
LBI
FPC OL#2
Dow LHC#3
Huntsman
Westlake P1
Shell OL5
Flint Hills
CP Chem 22
Dow
LBI
Borealis
Versalis
Ineos
Unipetrol
HIPs
Dow
PTT (I4-1)
PTT (I4-2)
KPIC
Lotte Chem
YNCC (OCU)
Showa Denko
Tosoh
Mitsui Chem
Mitsui Chem
CPC 4
CSPCL
Fushun
Zhejiang Satellite PDH
Zhangjiagang Yangzi

Capacity Timing Status

Corpus Christi, TX
770,000
Point Comfort, TX
816,000
Plaquemine, LA
500,000
Port Neches, TX
193,000
Lake Charles, LA
744,000
Norco, LA
885,000
Port Arthur, TX
630,000
Old Ocean, TX
250,000
Bohlen
565
Munchmunster 400
Sweden
625
Brindisi
440
Grangemouth
1 mil
Litvinov
544
Serbia
200
Bohlen
565
Map Ta Phut
515/310
Map Ta Phut
400/50
Onsan
470/230
Daesan, South Korea
1,000E/500P/150BD
Yeosu, South Korea
140P
Oita
695E/425P
Yokkaichi
530/316
Sakai
500E/280P
Chiba
600E/331P
Linyuan
380/193
Huizhou
950/500/165
Liaoning
800/500/120
Zhejiang
450P
Jiangsu
600P

TA = scheduled turnaround; SD! = unplanned shutdown; SU = startup; DB = debottlenecking; OR = operating rate

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

Q4 2016
TA - 40-60 days
Oct 2016
TA - 4 weeks
April 2016
TA - 40-60 days
March 2016
TA - 15-21 days
H2 2016
TA - 60 days TA
Q4 2015
TA - 40-60 days
August 13
TA - 60 days
August 1-3
SU
Sept-Oct TA
Sept-Oct TA
Aug-Sept TA
Aug-Sept T/A
Aug-Sep
TA - 7 weeks
mid August
SD
Aug 19
TA - one month
end July
SU reduced rates
Q3 2015
TA
Q3 2015
TA
H1 2017
DB
Oct-Nov 2015
TA
August 2015
SU
2018
TA
April 2016
TA - four weeks
September
OR to 85% for maintenance
August
RS after TA, OR full
November 2
TA - 55 days
H1 October
TA - 50 days
September
TA - one month
August
TA
July
TA PDH, 15-25 days

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

United States

Lower crude, Asian MEG lead to bearishness

Upcoming turnarounds may stabilize pricing

US monoethylene glycol prices fell 3 cents week on week, assessed at

a seven-month low of 32.50 cents/lb FOB USG on Friday on falling
Asian MEG prices and weaker buying interest, sources said. The
assessment reached its lowest level since January 30 when it was at
32 cents/lb FOB USG, according to Platts data. US market sentiment
remained bearish on the falling Asian spot prices along with dropping
crude prices, sources said. October NYMEX crude settled at $40.45/b
Friday, and sources said further crude drops would likely cause US
prices to lower into the 20s cents/lb. Asian spot prices declined $66/
mt on the week to $694/mt CFR China on a sharp build-up of China
inventory. US prices typically track Asian prices, per market feedback.
In addition to Asia and crude, feedstock ethylene has remained at
multi-year lows, assessed at 23 cents/lb FD USG Friday. Lower
ethylene prices create the potential for MEG prices to fall further,
sources said, as the differential between MEG and ethylene has
widened. MEG demand was slow to average as some buyers were
holding off on purchasing product until September in anticipation of
lower prices, sources said. MEG supply could tighten in September and
into the fourth quarter as turnarounds have been planned during that
time, sources said, adding that tighter supply could cause pricing to
stabilize. In contracts, expectations called for a decrease in September
US MEG contracts due to a fall in Asian spot pricing. August US MEG
contracts for fiber and PET makers were assessed at 42.7 cents/lb,
down 3.4 cents from July, based on a weighted formula that applies
discounts to announced contract prices.

Rationale
US monoethylene glycol was assessed down 3 cents at 32.5 cents/lb
FOB USG based on spot talked in the low-30s cents/lb. August US MEG
contracts for fiber and PET makers were assessed at 42.7 cents/lb,
down 3.4 cents from July, based on a weighted formula that applies
discounts to announced contract prices. MEGlobal nominated its
August Asian Contract Price for monoethylene glycol at $1,000/mt CFR
Asian main ports; Sabic nominated its August ACP at $1,020/mt CFR
Asia main ports; and Shell also nominated its August ACP for MEG at
$1,020/mt CFR Asia main ports, while MEGlobal dropped its North
American benchmark contract price for MEG at 49 cents/lb. The
formula discounts the North American price by 15% and the ACP
average by 5%, with each segment equally weighted, per market
feedback.

Asia

East China inventory rises 115,000 mt

MEG futures down Yuan 280/mt Friday

Asian MEG prices plummeted $66/mt week on week to $694/mt CFR

China and $697/mt CFR Southeast Asia on Friday, dragged down by a
sharp build-up of 115,000 mt in East Chinas inventory level to 744,000
mt this week. Traders have turned increasingly gloomy amid falling
crude prices, which had depressed prices of both polyester
feedstocks. This was exacerbated by news of the huge build in East

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

Chinas inventory, which was attributed to low operating rates at

Chinese PET and polyester plants. Market sentiment was also very
bearish amid another dive in Chinese equity markets, with the
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index falling a sharp 4.27%
Friday, and also on news that the Chinas flash purchasing managers
index fell to a six-and-a-half year low of 47.1 for August. Actively traded
October MEG futures on the Huaxicun Commodity Exchange fell by a
sharp Yuan 280/mt in a single day, from Fridays open at Yuan 5,496/mt
to close at Yuan 5,776/mt. Traders were heard to be short-selling both
H1 and H2 September cargoes, with trading in the physical market
tracking the fall in MEG futures. Spot prices fell from Mondays $752/mt
CFR China to $694/mt CFR China by Friday. Meanwhile, several PET
and and polyester plants in China and Taiwan are said to be operating
at reduced rates of 70%-75%. Chinese domestic PTA prices also fell
substantially, by Yuan 460/mt week on week to be assessed at Yuan
5,450/mt.

Rationale
Asian MEG prices were assessed at $694/mt CFR China and $697/mt CFR
Southeast Asia Friday. Before the Platts Market on Close assessment
process, deals were heard at $690-$695/mt CFR China for H1 September
loading. Off-screen during the MOC process, two trades were heard at
$692/mt CFR China for H1 September loading, and at $695/mt CFR China
for H1 September loading. Platts assessed between the traded levels of
$692/mt and $695/mt CFR China, taking into consideration falling MEG
futures and sharply lower Chinese domestic prices.

Propylene

Europe

ADNOC exports first propylene cargo

Bearishness surrounds CP

European propylene spot prices fell this week on bearish contract price
expectations and easing supply, sources said. Prices were assessed at
Eur836/mt on Friday, down Eur22/mt on the day. State-owned Abu
Dhabi Oil Refining Company (Takreer) has exported its first propylene
cargo to Europe from its Ruwais refinery, sources said Thursday.
7,000-9,000 mt ex Ruwais to ARA is loading soon, a shipping source
said Thursday. Takreer was not immediately available for comment.
Europe does not usually import propylene from the Middle East. In
2014, EU imports of propylene totaled 231,715 mt with 90,859 mt from
Norway, 36,224 mt from Serbia and 26,357 mt from Brazil. A fresh US
import was also fixed this week to Europe. Europe has imported 4,500
mt from the US, and 3,300 mt sailed end July. More imports are
expected in September, the shipping source added. Eurostat data
showed 13,614 mt was imported in June. The arb from the US has been
open since May.

Rationale
Platts assessed polymer grade at Eur836/mt, FD NWE, a discount of
5% to the August MCP, and September, with September assessed at
Eur827/mt a discount to Platts Sep MCP estimation of Eur860/mt. The
September CP was put at a discount to August on bearish sentiment
and falling upstream naphtha

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

United States

Supply length persists amid high run rates

August contracts fall 3.5 cents/lb

US spot refinery-grade propylene fell 1.5 cent/lb week on week to a

Friday assessment of 18.75-19.25 cents/lb delivered, on continued talks
of ample supply, strong refinery run rates and expectations of polymergrade propylene production capacity increases, sources said. Fridays
RGP assessment was at its lowest since January 8, 2009 (18.125 cents/
lb delivered), according to Platts data. US spot polymer-grade propylene
was assessed at 27.5-28 cents/lb FD USG for August delivery, down .25
cents/lb week on week. The assessment was based on September deal
at 27.75 cents/lb MtB-pipe and was the lowest since April 24, 2009,
when the spot price was assessed at 26.625 cents/lb. US propylene
production facilities -- including refineries, steam crackers, splitters and
propane dehydrogenation units -- have seen steady operation in the
past few months, contributing to the length in the market, sources said.
In contracts, US propylene contract prices for August settled 3.5 cents
lower, with polymer-grade propylene closing at 33 cents/lb and
chemical-grade propylene at 31.5 cents/lb, sources said. The drop was
3.5 cents/lb below the initial nomination of a rollover heard in late July.
The settlement put US propylene contracts at their lowest level since
May 2009. The slide marked the sixth consecutive decrease in as many
months. Sources talked of 1-2 cent/lb decrease in September contracts,
as spot trading below the 30 cent/lb mark was becoming
commonplace. In downstream markets, Formosa Plastics announced a
6-cent price hike for its September polypropylene deliveries, according
to a letter to customers. The increase would be independent from any
change in propylene contract pricing. Formosa is the fourth producer to
push for September hikes, with Phillips 66, Braskem America and Ineos
also pushing for higher polypropylene prices amid strong demand.

Rationale
US spot RGP dropped 1.5 cent/lb week on week to 18.75-19.25 cents/lb
delivered on Friday. The assessment was based on bid levels at 17.5
cents/lb MtB-pipe against no offers, and allowed 1.5 cents/lb for
negotiation. August and September PGP assessments fell 1.5 cent/lb
for the week, assessed at 27.5-28 cents/lb FD USG, based on an
September trade at 27.75 cents/lb MtB-pipe. August was assessed flat
to September, maintaining the structure seen throughout the week, as
no bids or trades were heard by the close of assessment. Spot CGP
was down 1.5 to 24.5-25 cents/lb delivered. No spot deals, bids or
offers were heard for the period. In the absence of price indicators, the
3- to 30-day assessment was based off spot PGP assessments, with a
3-cent/lb discount applied, per market feedback. August propylene
contracts were settled at 33 cents/lb for PGP and 31.5 cent/lb for CGP,
per market feedback, both 3.5 cents/lb lower than July levels.

Latin America

LyondellBassell sells PP producer

Downstream prices dip in key markets

Argentinas YPF is buying a 46% stake in polypropylene producer

Petroquimica Cuyo or Petrocuyo from Grupo Invesor Petroquimica, YPF
announced this week. State-owned YPF did not disclose the value of

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

the deal for Petrocuyo, but said that purchase, and its share of a joint
deal with Grupo Invesor Petroquimica -- or GIP -- to buy LyondellBasells
PP producer Petroken were together valued at $122 million. The
announcement came after LyondellBasell said YPF and GIP would
together buy Petroken for $145 million. Each would have 50% stakes in
Petroken. The moves by YPF mark its return to Argentinas downstream
segment of the petrochemicals industry, which it left in 2005. These
acquisitions are in line with our strategy to continue to build an
integrated company, YPF CEO Miguel Galuccio said in his companys
statement. The petrochemical sector has enormous potential in
Argentina, he added. Brazilian group Kelvin Corp will continue to hold
8% of Petrocuyo, according to YPF. Petrokens polypropylene plant in
Ensenada, Buenos Aires province has a production capacity of 180,000
mt/year while Petrocuyos polypropylene plant is in Lujan de Cuyo,
Mendoza province produces 130,000 mt/year. Their combined 310,000
mt/year of polypropylene capacity still leaves Argentina net short, with
an expected deficit of 82,000 mt in 2015, according to Platts Analytics
data. Argentina relies on polypropylene imports from Brazils Braskem
for the bulk of the unmet demand. Both Petroken and Petrocuyo rely on
YPF for propylene feedstock for polypropylene production. YPF is one
of the principal propylene suppliers in Argentina and sufficient
feedstock exists in the country to support both companies, a source
with knowledge of YPF company operations said. In downstream
markets, import pricing fell in both Peru and Brazil, with market players
pointing to weak demand amid anticipation of lower prices. Economic
conditions also played a part as a strong US dollar continued to
dominate domestic currencies in Brazil and Peru.

Asia

New China PDH plan offers first cargoes

New S Korea PDH plant achieves on spec output

Propylene was assessed at $838/mt CFR China Friday, falling $12/mt from
the day before and down $21/mt week on week, as supply increased on
new plant startups and lower buying ideas. Chinas Yantai Wanhua
Chemical last Friday started up its new propane dehydrogenation plant in
Shandong that can make 750,000 mt/year of propylene. A source in
China said cargoes from the new plant were being offered in the market
this week. South Koreas Hyosung Corp. achieved on-specification
production of propylene at its new PDH last week, a source said this
week. The plant in Ulsan can produce 300,000 mt/year of propylene. The
supply from these new plants did not fully offset an expected reduction in
operating rates by Japans Mitsui Chemicals, which plans to cut rates at
its Sakai steam cracker to 85% in early September for one week for
minor maintenance. The FOB Korea propylene marker was assessed at
$798/mt, down $12/mt from Thursday and down $27/mt from last Friday.

Rationale
Propylene was assessed at $838/mt CFR China Friday, down $12/mt
from Thursday and down $21/mt from the week before. The bid level
was heard around $800/mt Friday, with a sell idea heard around $840/
mt the day before. A CFR China deal was heard Friday to have traded at
$840/mt the day before. The FOB Korea propylene marker was
assessed at $798/mt, down $12/mt day on day and dropping $27/mt
week on week as CFR China prices fell. The spread between CFR China
and FOB Korea widened to $40/mt from $34/mt last Friday.

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

Butadiene

Europe

Europe seen consisten tly exporting cargoes to USG

Downstream SBR, upstream CC4 seen flat

European butadiene prices were assessed at $758/mt FOB Rdam

Friday, down $36 week on week. In the European domestic markets,
prices were unchanged during the same period at Eur725/mt ($822/
mt) FD NWE. A consumer who bought a 1,000-1,500 mt cargo at
Eur725/mt FD NWE this week said that he would peg the FOB Rdam
prices at Eur685/mt. A 4,500 mt cargo was seen being shipped out of
Europe to the US by the end of August. Trade sources said that this
could be a contract volume being shipped by a regular trader. Most of
the 10,000 mt of butadiene shipped out of Europe to the US last week
was also heard to be contract volume. The trader who sold these
cargoes declined to provide any details. Pressure on butadiene came
from additional supplies seen in the spot markets. Three new
butadiene capacities have come up in Europe recently. Germanys
Evonik has started up its new 100,000 mt/year butadiene plant in
Antwerp, Belgium. Austrias OMV has started up its new 80,000 mt/
year plant at Burghausen, Germany. Hungarys TVK is also heard to
have commenced operations at its new 130,000 mt/year plant at
Tiszaujvaros, Hungary. Feedstock European crude C4s factor was
assessed flat week on week at a 1.1 factor to naphtha and provided no
fresh direction to butadiene. Downstream styrene butadiene rubber
1500 grade was assessed flat week on week at Eur1,195/mt FD NWE.

Rationale
FOB Rdam was assessed at $758/mt, down $36 week on week and
within the market pegs placed by trade sources in the wide range of
$700-807/mt FOB Rdam. In the domestic markets, the was assessed
at Eur725/mt FD NWE where a deal was heard this week.

United States

Buyers, sellers remain at standstill

Global pricing remains on downward trend

US spot butadiene prices held unchanged on the week, assessed Friday

at 42 cents/lb CIF USG, with buyers and sellers at a standstill as
fundamentals of sluggish demand and lengthening supply remained
intact, sources said. Buyers have been seeking prices at or below 40
cents/lb CIF USG, and sellers have looked for prices in the mid-40s cents/
lb, sources said. Market sentiment remained bearish on falling global
prices and falling crude prices, sources said. Downward movement in
Asian and European prices have been expected to pressure US prices
lower, sources said. US spot supply has been tight for most of the last
four months, but with more European capacity online, supply was
expected to improve in that region and also in the US, sources said. US
demand remained weak, with downstream demand in the styrenebutadiene rubber and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene markets steady,
sources said. In global markets, European butadiene fell $36/mt on the
week to $758/mt FOB Rotterdam, while Asian butadiene was assessed
Friday at $915/mt CFR China and $915/mt FOB Korea, down $5-$10/mt on
the week. The arbitrage from Europe to the US was closed, sources said.

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

As much as 10,000 mt of butadiene was loading out of Europe in early to

mid-August destined for the US, according to a shipping report. However,
sources were uncertain if this material was contract or spot. In contracts,
no September US butadiene nominations were heard by time of time of
publication Friday, but expectations were for a rollover to a drop of 2-3
cents from August. The August US butadiene contract price settled at a
rollover to down 2 cents/lb ($44/mt) from July at a 36-47 cents/lb ($794$1,036/mt) split settlement, sources said.

Rationale
US spot butadiene was assessed flat at 42 cents/lb CIF USG Friday
based on buyers at 40 cents/lb or below and sellers in the mid-40s
cents/lb, leaning toward the buyer side on weak demand and
expectations for better supply. The August contract price was settled
at a 36-47 cents/lb split settlement at the end of July, sources said.

Latin America

Mexico imports from Europe, Brazil

Brazilian port strikes could bring delays

Latin American trade activity -- including imports into Mexico and

exports from Brazil -- are expected to be restricted to contractual basis,
trader sources said. Sources have maintained that the spot market
deals are becoming more scare due to stable to lower demand this
year. Demand is not picking up, its stable at best, a buyer source said.
The unstable crude and furthermore energy complex has also come
into play, Olefin market players said. Meanwhile Europe- and Brazilorigin cargos -- totaling almost 13,000-mt -- were unloaded at the
Mexican port of Altamira this week, port records showed. Export cargos
have found a home in Mexico throughout 2015, according to sources.
Braskem recently announced that their export sales improved almost
25% year on year although the majority headed to Asia, the Brazilian
company said. In Brazil, delivery time for plastic resins and other goods
could be delayed by up to 30 days as a result of a strike by the National
Union of Customs Officials, known as National Sindifisco. The strike
could delay shipping operations at the ports in Brazil. The strike may
not result in a complete work stoppage, but more likely working at
minimal levels, a Brazil-based ship broker has said. The strike, which
was resulting in the minimum permitted number of staff on duty,
currently has no set end-date, the National Sindifisco spokesman said.

Asia

SBR tumbles $50-$111/mt

TSRC to shut BR plant for maintenance

Asian butadiene was assessed at $915/mt for both CFR China and FOB
Korea, down $5/mt and $10/mt, respectively, week on week, in line with
falling upstream and downstream markets. October ICE Brent crude oil
futures ended at $46.14/barrel at 4:30 pm Singapore time (0830 GMT)
Friday, down $3.18/b week on week, while naphtha fell over the same
period by $30.50/mt to $423.75/mt CFR Japan. The styrene-butadienerubber market sank $50-$111/mt week on week on lower demand. The
CFR Northeast East Asia spot price for SBR was assessed down $111/mt
on week at $1,149/mt Friday, while CFR Southeast Asia SBR was assessed
down $50/mt week on week at $1,249/mt CFR SEA. However, butadiene

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

prices could be set to rebound from September, market sources said,

when some end-users return to the market to replenish inventories and
some producers limit availability ahead of upcoming plant turnarounds.
We have enough inventories right now but well consider purchases in
late September and October, a buyer in Taiwan said, adding that rising
demand would support prices. I have just received phone calls from two
end-users asking for spot sales, said an Asian producer, noting that
demand seems to be already picking up in Korea and China. A Korean
producer agreed customer inquiries were rising. However, we are
keeping on the sidelines and deciding whether to sell to the domestic
market or supply overseas. Were still in negotiations because buyers
dont want to commit to fixed prices, he said, adding that customers
were increasingly looking to lock deals on a floating basis instead. In
related news, Taiwans TSRC plans to shut its 60,000 mt/year butadienerubber plant at Kaohsiung from mid-September to early October for a
turnaround, sources close to the company said Friday. The company also
operates a 100,000 mt/year styrene-butadiene-rubber plant at the same
site, but it will not be affected by the shutdown of the BR plant.

were also assessed lower, both down $0.06/kg from last week. Both
months were assessed at $1.445/kg Friday. RSS 3 notional deal levels
for September and October were heard in a range of $1.44-1.455/kg.

Synthetic RUBBER

Europe

Bids seen being lowered from last week

Low South Korean offers pressure NWE prices

Asia

European emulsion styrene butadiene rubber 1500/1502 grades were

assessed at Eur1,195/mt ($1,356/mt) FD NWE Friday, unchanged on the
week. ESBR-1723 grade was assessed at Eur1,145/mt FD NWE, at a
Eur50 discount to ESBR-1500/1502 prices, whereas ESBR-1783 grade
was assessed at a Eur60/mt discount to ESBR-1500/1502. Russian
origin cargoes were heard offered at Eur1,200-1,225/mt FD NWE this
week, slightly higher than last weeks levels. However, the producer
offering these cargoes complained that the bids came at much lower
numbers. Europe origin ESBR 1500/1502 offers were heard higher than
Eur1,300/mt for the third week in a row. In Asia, SBR 1502 prices fell
$50-$111/mt week on week Friday to be assessed at $1,149/mt CFR
Northeast Asia and $1,249/mt CFR Southeast Asia respectively and
pressured prices in Europe. Small volumes of South Korean origin
cargoes were seen being offered into Europe at $1,225/mt CFR NWE.
Bearish feedstock butadiene pressured SBR prices in Europe. There is
a firm expectation that the European butadiene contract price for
September will reduce. As a result, many buyers for BR [butyl rubber]
and SBR are holding off purchasing, expecting prices to reduce, or at
least limit purchases to minimum quantities required, a trader said.

Macroeconomic concerns keep buying limited

Rationale

TSR 20 down 4.5 cents, RSS 3 down 6 cents

European ESBR 1500/1502 grades were assessed at Eur1,195/mt FD

NWE Friday. Spot offer indications ranged from Eur1,200-1,300/mt FD
NWE while bid levels were heard well below Eur1,200/mt FD NWE. Platts
assessed at Eur1,195/mt FD NWE Friday, Eur5 lower than the lowest
offer heard. SBR 1723 was assessed at Eur1,145/mt FD NWE, at a Eur50
discount to SBR 1500 and at the peg placed by several market
participants. SBR 1783 was assessed at Eur1,135/mt FD NWE, at a Eur60
discount to ESBR 1500/1502.

Rationale
Butadiene was assessed unchanged day on day at $915/mt for both
CFR China and FOB Korea as no new deals, bids or offers could be
confirmed. Week on week, CFR China was down $5/mt and FOB Korea
was down $10/mt. Some sellers said bids were rising to $950/mt CFR
China, but that remained unconfirmed amid tumbling crude oil and
other bearish fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

Asian natural rubber prices fell 4.5 cents-6 cents/kg from the previous
week. Sentiments have remained bearish amid Chinas volatile equity
markets and falling crude oil prices. Participants stayed on the sidelines,
keeping buying activity limited. They are not buying additional
[volumes], a trade source said Friday. Some were hoping for a rebound in
prices. A second trade source said: Its [the price has] been down for 12
consecutive weeks. The market is expecting it to have a slight recovery.
Overall [the market] is still pretty gloomy. Technically Specified Rubber
20, or TSR 20, for September and October were both assessed at $1.305/
kg Friday -- falling $0.045/kg on the week. Notional deal levels for
September-loading and October-loading cargoes were heard at $1.30$1.31/kg. FOB Singapore Ribbed Smoked Sheet 3, or RSS 3, for September
and October fell by $0.06/kg week on week and were both assessed at
$1.445/kg Friday. Similar to the past few months, notional deal levels for
both months were heard at a range of $1.44-$1.455/kg.

Rationale
FOB Singapore Technically Specified Rubber 20, or TSR 20, for
September and October dropped $0.045/kg from a week ago and both
months were assessed at $1.305/kg Friday. Notional deal levels for
September and October cargoes were heard between $1.30/kg and
$1.31/kg. Ribbed Smoked Sheet 3, or RSS 3, for September and October

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

Asia

Demand pulled down by lower crude, yuan

Tire makers cut operating rates

The Asian styrene-butadiene-rubber market sank $50-111/mt week on

week on lower demand. Buying appetite remained bearish on
macroeconomic concerns including the yuan depreciation, falling crude
oil futures and Chinas weaker-than-expected purchasing managers
index, an indicator of the manufacturing sector. The yuan depreciation
has made imports more expensive for Chinese buyers. A Northeast
Asian producer said tire makers in China are running at lower rates as a
result. A second source said synthetic rubber manufacturers have also
reduced rates. But August and September cargoes are limited, he said.
Platts assesses cargoes 30-60 days forward, which covers end-

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

September and October delivery cargoes. One producer had a standing

offer for September- and October- delivery at $1,150/mt CFR NE Asia
Friday but this was not taken up. The producer said the market was
very, very weak and he saw no demand. CFR NE Asia dropped $111/mt
week on week to $1,149/mt, while CFR Southeast Asia fell $50 week on
week to $1,249/mt. Sources said demand in SE Asia was relatively
better compared to China. One market participant said there is an
uptick in exports from SE Asia to the US.

Rationale
The CFR Northeast East Asia spot price for SBR was assessed down
$111/mt on week to $1,149/mt Friday, below the offer heard at $1,150/mt
CFR NE Asia for end September/October delivery cargoes. CFR
Southeast Asia SBR was assessed down $50/mt on week at $1,249/mt
CFR SEA. That is below the offer heard at $1,250/mt for September/
October delivery cargoes.

Raffinate 1

Europe

actually inked. Turkeys Petkim, one of the largest CC4 producers

globally, was the only major producer seen active in the spot markets
and was expected to sell a total of about 14,000 mt of butadiene in
August. A major share of Petkims cargoes may be for contract, a
trader said. A near 11% drop in naphtha prices in August pressured CC4
prices. Shells 900,000 mt/year Dutch Moerdijk cracker; Total/Ineos
joint-venture 740,000 mt/year Naphtachimie cracker in Lavera, France;
and Dows 565,000 mt/year Bohlen cracker in Germany have yet to run
at full rates following their respective restarts. Unipetrols 485,000 mt/
year cracker in Litvinov, Czech Republic remained shut this week and
ensured continuing tight supplies of several petrochemicals in the
European domestic markets. Downstream butadiene, which saw no
demand in the domestic spot markets, sent bearish signals to CC4.

Rationale
Crude C4 was assessed stable on the week at a 1.1 factor to naphtha. A
deal was heard being negotiated at this level this week. This was also
the level where a cross section of trade sources, including producers,
traders and consumers pegged the market.

News Briefs

Entire C4s chain faces price pressure

Downstream MTBE looks bearish

European raffinate 1 was assessed stable on the week at a factor of

1.27 to naphtha. No spot deals for the product were heard for the
second week in a row. About 3,500 mt of raffinate-1 was heard to have
traded at this level two weeks earlier. While upstream crude C4 was
also seen stable this week, downstream MTBE was volatile.
Downstream MTBE prices saw a near consistent drop this week on
falling crude and sliding demand for blending components. A near 11%
drop in naphtha prices in August also pressured raffinate-1 prices.
Shells 900,000 mt/year Dutch Moerdijk cracker; Total/Ineos jointventure 740,000 mt/year Naphtachimie cracker in Lavera, France; and
Dows 565,000 mt/year Bohlen cracker in Germany have yet to run at
full rates following their respective restarts. Unipetrols 485,000 mt/
year cracker in Litvinov, Czech Republic remained shut this week. This
kept the products supplies tight.

Rationale
Platts assessed raffinate 1s factor to naphtha stable on the week at
1.27. Several market sources including producers and traders pegged
the market at this level. Platts assessed at what was the most
representative peg seen in the market.

Crude C4

Europe

Sharp drop in naphtha applies pressure on CC4

Turkey remains consistent in supplies

European crude C4s factor to naphtha was assessed flat week on

week at 1.1. A deal was heard being negotiated this week at a 1.1 factor
to naphtha on an FD NWE basis but it could not be confirmed if it was

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

India PP producers cut offers

for third time in Aug on weak demand
Singapore Indias polypropylene producers have cut offers in the
domestic market for the third time in August while extending a new
price protection scheme for customers until August 31, citing weak
demand, industry sources said. The CFR South Asia PP raffia marker fell
$60/mt on the week to $1,035/mt on Wednesday, according to Platts
data, as abundant supplies from the Middle East and flat demand from
China weighed on then India domestic market. Reliance Industries
Limited, Indian Oil Corporation and other major producers announced
new domestic PP offers late August 19 for September-loading cargoes,
at around Rupee 80,230/mt ex-plant, equivalent to $1,101/mt on an
import parity basis and down Rupee 800/mt from August 13. The price
protection scheme will cover domestic clients until August 31, whereby
producers have agreed to refund the difference in purchase price if
offers were lowered before the next scheduled offer announcement
early September, according to industry sources. Indian producers
generally issue fresh offers at the beginning of a month, unless prices
move quickly enough to warrant a price correction during the month.

Atypical US benzene-WTI ratio

could mean benzene is overvalued: sources
Houston A higher benzene-WTI ratio than the industry-accepted 1.80
could mean US spot benzene is overvalued and prices could soon
decline, sources said. The US benzene-WTI ratio was 2.18 Thursday, and
has been consistently higher than 1.8 since June 8, when the ratio was
at that level, according to Platts data. WTI crude prices have trended
lower since their June 10 settle at $61.43/b for the NYMEX front-month
crude futures contract. But US spot benzene prices stayed consistently
higher than that same dates assessment at $2.68/gal ($801.32/mt) FOB
US Gulf Coast, until they started to decline at the end of July. During the
same period, the benzene-WTI ratio peaked at 2.54 on July 22. A ratio

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

above 1.8, coupled with bearish fundamentals of slow demand and

ample supply with more benzene expected to arrive from Asia at the
end of August through October supports a decline in US benzene
prices, sources said. Things dont look too hot for US benzene pricing
in September, but you cant always be too certain with this market, a
trader source said. US spot benzene was assessed Thursday at $2.14/
gal FOB USG, while NYMEX crude settled at $41.14/b.

European methanol demand recovery

expectation hit by China economic woes
London Optimism about a recovery in demand for European
methanol spot barges have dwindled following the recent economic
downturn in China, a fall in raw material prices and the devaluation of
the yuan, traders said this week. With buy interest having fallen to a
trickle at the start of the third quarter, largely driven by the seasonal
decline in demand for methanol, traders were banking on the return of
buyers in September and a rise in global demand from the derivative
methanol-to-olefins segment in China. The impact of the weaker
Chinese economy has already been felt in the oil market, where ICE
Brent hit $45.74/b yesterday, its lowest level since January 13, when
Platts assessed at a multi-year low of $45.22/b. Similarly, European
methanol prices have been assessed at Eur275.50/mt FOB Rotterdam,
its lowest level since the end of January. Recently, market sources
anticipated that about 4 million mt of new MTO capacity was due to
start up between September and the first quarter of 2016, which would
see a significant increase in global methanol demand. MTO units
require roughly 3 mt of methanol to produce 1 mt of olefins. According
to Platts analytics data, a total of 10 MTO projects by Sinopec
Engineering Group, Wison and KBR in China were set to be launched in
2015 and 2016. But the downturn in China has forced some traders to
re-think their demand estimates, on which MTO largely hinged, given
that some plant startups could be delayed. Im a little more bearish
than I was. If the [Chinese] output drops as much as they say and the
stock market falls and it hits oil; as soon as that happens, thats going
to impact the energy side, and the olefins, and its going to hit the MTO
side of things, an industry source said. Another agreed, adding: It
does not look super good indeed. The only light of hope is MTO/MTP

OLEFINSCAN
Volume 30 / Issue 22 / August 21, 2015
Editorial: Sydney +61-2-9255-9842. Singapore +65-6530-6584. Tokyo +81-3-3593-8831.
London +44-20-7176-6264. New York +1-212-904-3070. Houston +1-713-658-3232.
Client services information: E-mail: support@platts.com North America: 800-PLATTS8 (800-752-8878);
direct: +1-212-904-3070; Europe & Middle East: +44-20-7176-6111, Asia-Pacific: +65-6530-6430,
Latin America: +54-11-4121-4810.
Restrictions on Use: You may use the prices, indexes, assessments and other related information
(collectively, Data) in this publication only for your personal use or, if your company has a license from
Platts and you are an Authorized User, for your companys internal business. You may not publish,
reproduce, distribute, retransmit, resell, create any derivative work from and/or otherwise provide access to
Data or any portion thereof to any person (either within or outside your company including, but not limited
to, via or as part of any internal electronic system or Internet site), firm or entity, other than as authorized by
a separate license from Platts, including without limitation any subsidiary, parent or other entity that is
affiliated with your company, it being understood that any approved use or distribution of the Data beyond
the express uses authorized in this paragraph above is subject to the payment of additional fees to Platts.

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

10

units returning to profitability. And this was looking likely with spot
prices globally falling. However, this meant that spot discounts over
the contract were steadily rising beyond yardstick measures. The
European spot discount over the third-quarter contract price of
Eur359/mt was assessed at 23% on Thursday, the highest level in 2015
and the highest since June 2014. Looking beyond the fourth quarter,
some European sources felt that the current low oil price could
continue to impact the market going forward and might force a
re-think on MTO. The Chinese economy is a problem on the one hand,
and the impact of low oil prices on MTO economics [is another]. If you
can produce olefins with crude at a competitive level, why use MTO? a
trader said. I think that things will be delayed for some of the MTO
plants as oil price will last at low levels, a second trader said. MEOH
might be impacted by the low oil price in the medium or longer term.
Looking at next year, the price will go down and the discount will get
bigger, the second trader said.

Czech Republics Unipetrol petchems

shutdown may tighten NWE styrene: sources
London Styrene prices in Northwest Europe may rise after
Unipetrols 485,000 mt/year cracker in Litvinov, Czech Republic shut
down on Thursday due to a fire, trade sources said Friday.
Petrochemicals producer Synthos gets its feed from the Litvinov
cracker for its 130,000 mt/year styrene facility in Oswiecim, Poland,
Platts data shows. If Unipetrol will be out for a long time, that could be
problematic, a chemicals trader said Friday morning, referring to the
potential shortage of styrene feedstock for Synthos production. A
second trader source said a styrene order had been placed from the
Czech Republic. A third market source said it was likely that some
styrene would flow from Northwest Europe into more eastern parts of
the continent due to Unipetrols shutdown. The European spot price of
styrene was assessed at $1,290/mt FOB ARA for 5-30 days forward on
Thursday. The styrene spot market has remained on the tighter side in
the second half of August due to the upcoming shutdown of Trinseos
300,000 mt/year styrene facility in Boehlen, Germany.

Disclaimer: DATA IN THIS PUBLICATION IS BASED ON MATERIALS COLLECTED FROM ACTUAL MARKET
PARTICIPANTS. PLATTS, ITS AFFILIATES AND ALL OF THEIR THIRD-PARTY LICENSORS DISCLAIM ANY AND
ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE AS TO THE DATA, OR THE RESULTS
OBTAINED BY ITS USE OR AS TO THE PERFORMANCE THEREOF. A REFERENCE TO A PARTICULAR
INVESTMENT, SECURITY, RATING OR ANY OBSERVATION CONCERNING A SECURITY OR INVESTMENT
PROVIDED IN THE DATA IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD SUCH INVESTMENT OR
SECURITY OR MAKE ANY OTHER INVESTMENT DECISIONS. NEITHER PLATTS, NOR ITS AFFILIATES OR
THEIR THIRD-PARTY LICENSORS GUARANTEE THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS OR
COMPLETENESS OF THE DATA OR ANY COMPONENT THEREOF OR ANY COMMUNICATIONS, INCLUDING
BUT NOT LIMITED TO ORAL OR WRITTEN COMMUNICATIONS (WHETHER IN ELECTRONIC OR OTHER
FORMAT), WITH RESPECT THERETO.
ACCORDINGLY, ANY USER OF THE DATA SHOULD NOT RELY ON ANY RATING OR OTHER OPINION CONTAINED
THEREIN IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. PLATTS, ITS AFFILIATES AND THEIR THIRDPARTY LICENSORS SHALL NOT BE SUBJECT TO ANY DAMAGES OR LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS, OMISSIONS
OR DELAYS IN THE DATA. THE DATA AND ALL COMPONENTS THEREOF ARE PROVIDED ON AN AS IS BASIS
AND YOUR USE OF THE DATA IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Limitation of Liability: IN NO EVENT WHATSOEVER SHALL PLATTS, ITS AFFILIATES OR THEIR THIRD-PARTY
LICENSORS BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE OR CONSEQUENTIAL
DAMAGES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OF PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES, OR LOST TIME OR
GOODWILL, EVEN IF THEY HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, WHETHER IN
CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT LIABILITY OR OTHERWISE.
Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be
photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without
prior written authorization from Platts. Platts is a trademark of McGraw Hill Financial.

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

Subscriber notes
Platts to assess ARA as basis location for NWE ethylene, propylene effective
Aug 17 Platts will assess Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp as the basis location
for its daily and weekly FD and CIF Northwest European ethylene and propylene
assessments from August 17, 2015. Platts previously reflected the wider
northwest European area without specifying a basis location within that area.
The port of Antwerp is the biggest petrochemical hub in Europe. Rotterdam/
Terneuzen/Flushing/Moerdijk are large import/throughput and trading hubs for
both ethylene and propylene. Propylene pipelines connect important chemical
sites in the Netherlands and Belgium. The ARG network is an ethylene pipeline
network that connects the Belgian, German and Dutch chemical industry to the
ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam. Several pipelines also flow from Antwerp to
Terneuzen, Rotterdam, Feluy and the Rhine-Ruhr area. Platts currently
publishes assessments for FD and CIF NWE Ethylene and Propylene in the
European Olefinscan and on pages PC0300 PC03 and PC0543 respectively.
Assessments to be normalized to basis ARA: Ethylene: FD NWE HPAJE00 CIF
NWE PHAJD00 Propylene: Polymer grade FD NWE HPAJQ00, CIF NWE HPAJP00
Chemical grade FD NWE HPAJZ00, CIF NWE HPAJY00 Please send any
comments and questions to: petchems@platts.com and copy
pricegroup@platts.com.
Platts to discontinue weekly US CGP assessments starting Oct 30 Following an
extended comment period, Platts will discontinue its weekly US chemical grade
propylene spot assessments due to a lack of liquidity in the market. Platts
intends to end publication of the assessments from October 30, 2015. Affected
assessments and codes: Propylene Chem Grade FD USG cts/lb Weekly spot
PHAXI04 Propylene Chem Grade FD USG cts/lb MAvg PHBCO03 The
assessments are also currently published in the Platts Petrochemical Alert.
Please send any feedback or questions to petchems@platts.com and
pricegroup@platts.com. For written comments, please provide a clear indication
if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts
will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as
confidential available upon request.
Platts to end publishing Asian natural rubber assessments Platts will
discontinue the Platts natural rubber assessments from December 30, 2015.
The natural rubber assessments would not be published anymore on Platts
Petrochemical Alert page 680 (PCA680), the Olefinscan, and under the following
codes in the Platts price database from the said date: Platts Rubber Index Daily
NOON Assessments Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDN00
Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDM00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDP00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDO00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDR00 Rubber RSS 3
FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDQ00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD
KG AAWDT00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDS00 Platts
Rubber Index Daily Assessments Mavg Wavg Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD KG AAWDF00 AAWDF03 AAWDF04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD MT AAWDE00 AAWDE03 AAWDE04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo02 USD KG AAWDH00 AAWDH03 AAWDH04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo02 USD MT AAWDG00 AAWDG03 AAWDG04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD KG AAWDJ00 AAWDJ03 AAWDJ04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01
USD MT AAWDI00 AAWDI03 AAWDI04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD
KG AAWDL00 AAWDL03 AAWDL04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDK00 AAWDK03 AAWDK04 Please send any feedback or questions to
petchems@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com
Platts invites feedback on proposal to stop publishing Asian natural rubber
assessments Platts is inviting feedback on a proposal to discontinue its daily
Asian natural rubber assessments from December 14, 2015. These assessments
are published on Platts Petrochemical Alert page 680 (PCA680), the Olefinscan,
and under the following codes in the Platts price database: Platts Rubber Index
Daily NOON Assessments Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG
AAWDN00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDM00 Rubber TSR
20 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDP00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo02
USD MT AAWDO00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDR00
Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDQ00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

11

Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDT00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDS00 Platts Rubber Index Daily Assessments Mavg Wavg Rubber TSR 20
FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDF00 AAWDF03 AAWDF04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDE00 AAWDE03 AAWDE04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDH00 AAWDH03 AAWDH04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDG00 AAWDG03 AAWDG04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDJ00 AAWDJ03 AAWDJ04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDI00 AAWDI03 AAWDI04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDL00 AAWDL03 AAWDL04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDK00 AAWDK03 AAWDK04 In addition, these
assessments are published in the Platts Rubber Index (RBX) newsletter, which
Platts is proposing to discontinue from June 15, 2015. Please send any feedback
or questions to petchems@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com by June 15,
2015. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are
not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all
comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential
available upon request.
Platts proposes to discontinue posted US ethylene contract assessment Platts
proposes to discontinue its US ethylene posted contract price assessment from
December 1, 2015. Market feedback indicates domestic business has moved
away from referencing and using the posted price in contract settlements. The
assessment is currently published in the Platts Petrochemical Platts to assess
ARA as basis location for NWE ethylene, propylene effective Aug 17 Platts will
assess Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp as the basis location for its daily and
weekly FD and CIF Northwest European ethylene and propylene assessments
from August 17, 2015. Platts previously reflected the wider northwest European
area without specifying a basis location within that area. The port of Antwerp is
the biggest petrochemical hub in Europe. Rotterdam/Terneuzen/Flushing/
Moerdijk are large import/throughput and trading hubs for both ethylene and
propylene. Propylene pipelines connect important chemical sites in the
Netherlands and Belgium. The ARG network is an ethylene pipeline network that
connects the Belgian, German and Dutch chemical industry to the ports of
Antwerp and Rotterdam. Several pipelines also flow from Antwerp to
Terneuzen, Rotterdam, Feluy and the Rhine-Ruhr area. Platts currently
publishes assessments for FD and CIF NWE Ethylene and Propylene in the
European Olefinscan and on pages PC0300 PC03 and PC0543 respectively.
Assessments to be normalized to basis ARA: Ethylene: FD NWE HPAJE00 CIF
NWE PHAJD00 Propylene: Polymer grade FD NWE HPAJQ00, CIF NWE HPAJP00
Chemical grade FD NWE HPAJZ00, CIF NWE HPAJY00 Please send any
comments and questions to: petchems@platts.com and copy
pricegroup@platts.com.
Platts to discontinue weekly US CGP assessments starting Oct 30 Following an
extended comment period, Platts will discontinue its weekly US chemical grade
propylene spot assessments due to a lack of liquidity in the market. Platts
intends to end publication of the assessments from October 30, 2015. Affected
assessments and codes: Propylene Chem Grade FD USG cts/lb Weekly spot
PHAXI04 Propylene Chem Grade FD USG cts/lb MAvg PHBCO03 The
assessments are also currently published in the Platts Petrochemical Alert.
Please send any feedback or questions to petchems@platts.com and
pricegroup@platts.com. For written comments, please provide a clear indication
if comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts
will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as
confidential available upon request.
Platts to end publishing Asian natural rubber assessments Platts will
discontinue the Platts natural rubber assessments from December 30, 2015.
The natural rubber assessments would not be published anymore on Platts
Petrochemical Alert page 680 (PCA680), the Olefinscan, and under the following
codes in the Platts price database from the said date: Platts Rubber Index Daily
NOON Assessments Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDN00
Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDM00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDP00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDO00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDR00 Rubber RSS 3

OLEFINSCAN

August 21, 2015

Subscriber notes
FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDQ00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD
KG AAWDT00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDS00 Platts
Rubber Index Daily Assessments Mavg Wavg Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD KG AAWDF00 AAWDF03 AAWDF04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD MT AAWDE00 AAWDE03 AAWDE04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo02 USD KG AAWDH00 AAWDH03 AAWDH04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore
Mo02 USD MT AAWDG00 AAWDG03 AAWDG04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore
Mo01 USD KG AAWDJ00 AAWDJ03 AAWDJ04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01
USD MT AAWDI00 AAWDI03 AAWDI04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD
KG AAWDL00 AAWDL03 AAWDL04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDK00 AAWDK03 AAWDK04 Please send any feedback or questions to
petchems@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com
Platts invites feedback on proposal to stop publishing Asian natural rubber
assessments Platts is inviting feedback on a proposal to discontinue its daily
Asian natural rubber assessments from December 14, 2015. These assessments
are published on Platts Petrochemical Alert page 680 (PCA680), the Olefinscan,
and under the following codes in the Platts price database: Platts Rubber Index
Daily NOON Assessments Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG
AAWDN00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDM00 Rubber TSR
20 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDP00 Rubber TSR 20 FOB Singapore Mo02
USD MT AAWDO00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDR00
Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDQ00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDT00 Rubber RSS 3 FOB Singapore Mo02 USD MT
AAWDS00 Platts Rubber Index Daily Assessments Mavg Wavg Rubber TSR 20
FOB Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDF00 AAWDF03 AAWDF04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDE00 AAWDE03 AAWDE04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB

Copyright 2015 McGraw Hill Financial

12

Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDH00 AAWDH03 AAWDH04 Rubber TSR 20 FOB

Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDG00 AAWDG03 AAWDG04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD KG AAWDJ00 AAWDJ03 AAWDJ04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo01 USD MT AAWDI00 AAWDI03 AAWDI04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD KG AAWDL00 AAWDL03 AAWDL04 Rubber RSS 3 FOB
Singapore Mo02 USD MT AAWDK00 AAWDK03 AAWDK04 In addition, these
assessments are published in the Platts Rubber Index (RBX) newsletter, which
Platts is proposing to discontinue from June 15, 2015. Please send any feedback
or questions to petchems@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com by June 15,
2015. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are
not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all
comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential
available upon request.
Platts proposes to discontinue posted US ethylene contract assessment Platts
proposes to discontinue its US ethylene posted contract price assessment from
December 1, 2015. Market feedback indicates domestic business has moved
away from referencing and using the posted price in contract settlements. The
assessment is currently published in the Platts Petrochemical Alert on pages
PC301 and PC006. Affected assessments: Ethylene USG Posted CP cts/lb
PHAJI00 Ethylene USG Posted CP cts/lb MAvg PHBDC03 Please send any
feedback or questions to petchems@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com by
September 30. For written comments, please provide a clear indication if
comments are not intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts
will consider all comments received and will make comments not marked as
confidential available upon request.