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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy
College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China
Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 9 June 2015
Received in revised form
8 October 2015
Accepted 18 October 2015
Available online xxx
A framework for the reliability evaluation of grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) systems with intermittent
faults is proposed using DBNs (dynamic Bayesian networks). A three-state Markov model is constructed
to represent the state transition relationship of no faults, intermittent faults, and permanent faults for PV
components. The model is subsequently fused into the DBNs. The reliability and availability of three
simple PV systems with centralized, string, and multistring congurations, as well as a complex PV
system, are analyzed through the proposed framework. The sequence of the degree of importance of PV
components is investigated using mutual information. The effects of intermittent fault parameters,
including the coefcients of intermittent fault, permanent fault, and intermittent repair, on the reliability
and availability are explored. Results show that the reliability and availability of the PV system with
centralized conguration rapidly decrease, compared with those of the PV systems with string and
multistring congurations. The sequence of the degree of importance of PV components is DC/AC
inverter, DC/DC converter, DC combiner, and PV module arranged from the largest to the smallest. The
nding indicates that the DC/AC inverter should be given considerable attention to improve the reliability and availability and to prevent their possible failures.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Dynamic Bayesian networks
Reliability evaluation
Intermittent faults
Photovoltaic systems
1. Introduction
Given the concerns about increasing environmental problems,
the development and application of grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) power systems to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have aroused a great deal of interest [1e4].
However, PV systems usually work in extreme conditions, (e.g.,
desert), and the modules and balance-of-system components of
these systems deteriorate because of environmental and operational stresses [5e7]. Therefore, the reliability and availability of
these systems need to be quantitatively predicted.
A few studies have evaluated the reliability and availability of PV
systems and their components using general reliability analysis
methods, such as fault tree, Monte Carlo simulation, Petri nets, and
Markov models. Each of these methods has its advantages and
1309
1310
Fig. 1. Three simple PV system congurations: (a) centralized, (b) string, and (c) multistring congurations.
1311
l l1 l2
(1)
l2 x$l
(2)
l3 y$l2
(3)
m1 z$l2
(4)
1312
PV2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Comb1
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
PV3
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
PV4
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Comb2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
99.9
.055
.082
Conv
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
99.8
.082
0.12
Inve
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
99.7
0.13
0.20
PV_system
Work
Fail
PV5
NF
IF
PF
PV6
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
Comb3
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
100
0
PV7
99.9
.055
.082
NF
IF
PF
PV8
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
Comb4
99.9
.033
.049
Conv1
Inve1
PV_system1
Work
Fail
98.9
1.13
(a)
NF
IF
PF
PV1
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
PV2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Comb1
100
0
0
Work
Fail
String1
100
0
NF
IF
PF
Conv1
100
0
0
Inve1
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
NF
IF
PF
PV3
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
PV4
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Comb2
100
0
0
Work
Fail
String2
100
0
NF
IF
PF
Comb4
99.9
.055
.082
Work
Fail
String4
98.9
1.12
NF
IF
PF
Conv2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Inve2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
Conv4
99.7
0.11
0.16
NF
IF
PF
Inve4
99.5
0.22
0.33
PV_System
Work 100
Fail
0
NF
IF
PF
PV5
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
PV6
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
Comb3
99.9
.055
.082
Work
Fail
String3
98.9
1.12
NF
IF
PF
Conv3
99.7
0.11
0.16
NF
IF
PF
Inve3
99.5
0.22
0.33
NF
IF
PF
PV7
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
PV8
99.9
.033
.049
PV_System1
Work 100
Fail
.012
(b)
PV1
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
PV2
NF
IF
PF
Comb1
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
Conv1
NF
IF
PF
PV3
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
PV4
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
String1
Work
Fail
Comb2
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
99.9
.055
.082
Conv2
NF
IF
PF
100
0
0
NF
IF
PF
99.7
0.11
0.16
String2
100
0
Work
Fail
100
0
Inve
String
Work
Fail
NF
IF
PF
100
0
100
0
0
PV_System
Work
Fail
PV5
NF
IF
PF
99.9
.033
.049
PV6
NF
IF
PF
Comb3
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
99.9
.055
.082
Conv3
NF
IF
PF
100
0
PV7
99.7
0.11
0.16
NF
IF
PF
PV8
99.9
.033
.049
NF
IF
PF
String3
Work
Fail
Comb4
99.9
.033
.049
Conv4
String4
99.4
0.57
Work
Fail
99.4
0.57
Inve1
String5
Work
Fail
NF
IF
PF
100
.003
99.7
0.13
0.20
PV_System1
Work
Fail
99.7
0.33
(c)
Fig. 3. DBNs of PV systems with (a) centralized, (b) string, and (c) multistring congurations the presence of intermittent faults.
1314
NF
IF
PF
1
(a)
NF
IF
PF
1
2
(b)
Fig. 5. State transition diagram in the presence of intermittent faults (a) without and
(b) with repair.
Table 1
Transition relations between the consecutive nodes without repair.
t
tDt
NF
IF
PF
NF
el1 l2 Dt
IF
1em1 l3 Dt m1
m1 l3
1el1 l2 Dt l2
l1 l2
em1 l3 Dt
1el1 l2 Dt l1
l1 l2
1em1 l3 Dt l3
m1 l3
PF
conditional probabilities are dened based on the series and parallel relationship between the root and leaf nodes.
The PV system with a string conguration in Fig. 3(b) is used as
example. PV modules #1 and #2, the DC combiner, DC/DC converter, and DC/AC inverter in the left string are considered a series.
Similarly, PV modules #3 and #4, the DC combiner, DC/DC converter, and DC/AC inverter in the right string are regarded as a series. The left and right strings provide backup for each other. Thus,
they are considered parallel. The relationship between nodes PV1,
PV2, Comb1, Conv1, Inve1, and node String1 is AND. When the
states of all parent nodes are NF, the state of String1 is work;
otherwise, the state of String1 is fail, as shown in Table 5 (for
simplicity, we omit some terms with the fail state). The relationship
between nodes String1, String2, and node PV_System is OR. Only
when the states of all parent nodes are fail does, the state of
PV_System is denoted as fail; otherwise, the state of PV_System is
work, as presented in Table 6. The conditional probability table
for the PV systems with centralized and multistring congurations
can be obtained using the series and parallel relationship among
nodes.
Table 2
Transition relations between the consecutive nodes with repair.
t
tDt
NF
IF
PF
NF
el1 l2 Dt
IF
1em1 l3 Dt m1
m1 l3
1 em2 Dt
1el1 l2 Dt l2
l1 l2
em1 l3 Dt
1el1 l2 Dt l1
l1 l2
1em1 l3 Dt l3
m1 l3
em2 Dt
PF
1315
Table 3
Failure and repair rates of the PV components.
Component
Centralized
PV module
DC combiner
DC/DC converter
DC/AC inverter
String
Multistring
Repair rate
Repair rate
Repair rate
3.2232
5.3720
8.0580
12.8928
0.0667
0.1667
0.1250
0.0833
3.2232
5.3720
10.7440
21.4880
0.0667
0.1667
0.1250
0.0833
3.2232
5.3720
10.7440
12.8928
0.0667
0.1667
0.1250
0.0833
Table 4
Failure and repair rates of the PV components for the complex PV system.
Component
Repair rate
PV module
DC combiner
DC/AC micro-converter
DC/AC converter
AC combiner
3.2232
5.3720
40.2901
21.4880
2.6860
0.0667
0.1667
0.1000
0.0833
0.0556
Table 5
Conditional probability table of node String1 for the PV system with string
conguration.
No.
PV1
PV2
Comb1
Conv1
Inve1
String1
1
2
3
4
5
6
238
239
240
241
242
243
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
NF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
PF
NF
NF
NF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
PF
PF
PF
NF
IF
PF
NF
IF
PF
NF
IF
PF
NF
IF
PF
Work
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Fail
Table 6
Conditional probability table of node PV_System for the PV system with string
conguration.
No.
String1
String2
PV_System
1
2
3
4
Work
Work
Fail
Fail
Work
Fail
Work
Fail
Work
Work
Work
Fail
1316
Fig. 6. Reliability (a) without and (b) with intermittent faults, and availability (c) without and (d) with intermittent faults of three PV systems within ten years.
Fig. 7. Reliability and availability of the complex PV system with intermittent faults
within ten years.
1317
Fig. 8. Mutual information of PV components and PV system (a) centralized, (b) string, and (c) multistring congurations in the presence of intermittent faults in the 1st, 5th, and
10th year.
4.5. Discussions
Previous studies have analyzed the reliability evaluation of gridconnected PV systems and components using various methods.
However, this line of research failed to consider a signicant feature
of electronic products, that is, intermittent faults. Therefore, the
current study propose a novel DBN-based reliability evaluation
methodology with intermittent faults to predict the reliability and
availability of PV systems based on the collected failure data of
components. The research results indicate that intermittent faults
only slightly affect the reliability value of three simple PV systems,
and systems with intermittent faults have a slightly higher reliability than those without intermittent faults because of auto recovery. Nevertheless, the reliability values are not remarkably
important because repair actions are performed once faults occur
in reality. Thus, the availability values are more important than the
reliability values. The availabilities of the three PV systems
continuously decrease, but they do not stabilize at certain levels.
This is because intermittent faults cannot be repaired manually.
Therefore, these faults should be diagnosed and repaired timely.
The degree of importance of PV components is another important
issue. Unlike other reliability evaluation methods, DBN is a
powerful tool for examining mutual information and for identifying
the degree of importance. The component with high degree of
important should be given considerable attention to improve the
1318
Fig. 9. Effect of model parameters (a) x, (b) y, (c) z on the reliability, (d) x, (e) y, and (f) z on the availability of PV systems in 5th year.
1319
1320