Bangladesh Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model-Update 1 June 2014

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for
Bangladesh- Tarun Das
PDP Australia Pty. Ltd
Draft for Discussion and Consultation with Stakeholders
AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR BANGLADESH- ANALYTICAL
FRAMEWORK, MODEL STRUCTURE, DATA BASE, TEST AND
CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES AND BASE LINE MEDIUM AND LONGTERM PROJECTIONS
DR. TARUN DAS, TECHNICAL ADVISER (DEBT MANAGEMENT

POLICY)1
AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DR. ZIAUL ABEDIN, NATIONAL CONSULTANT (DEBT MANAGEMENT)

MS. MAHMUDA BEGUM, NATIONAL CONSULTANT (DEBT MANAGEMENT)
UPDATED 01 JUNE 2014

DMTBF and Strengthening Financial Accountability Project
Finance Division, Ministry of Finance
Government of Bangladesh, Dhaka-1200, Bangladesh.
20th Floor, 6th Building, Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka-1200.
The Report expresses personal views of the Consultants which need not necessarily reflect the views
of the DMTBF Project, PDP Australia Pty Ltd, Finance Division or the Government of Bangladesh. It
is needless to mention that the authors are solely responsible for any errors, misrepresentations and
omissions which might have crept unintentionally in the Report.
1


FOREWORD
The present Draft Report entitled An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic

Forecasting Spreadsheet Model for Bangladesh has been prepared by Dr. Tarun
Das, International Expert (Debt Management and Policy) in association with Dr. Ziaul
Abedin and Ms. Mahmuda Begum, National Experts (Debt Management and Policy),
of the sub-component C1.2 of the DMTBF Project. Authors have also benefitted from
valuable discussions with and support from the officers of the Treasury and Debt
Management Wing (TDMW) and Macroeconomic Wing (MEW) of the Finance
Division, Ministry of Finance.
Earlier, an alternative and full fledged Macro-Fiscal Econometric Model was built by
the Macro Fiscal Modeling Team (subcomponent C1.1) with the help of the EViews7
Software and on the basis of more advanced econometric techniques. However, that
econometric model provides projections for only three years and cannot provide long
term projections.
The present Operational Macroeconomic Model has been developed, tested and
calibrated by the C1.2 Team for producing projections of major macroeconomic
variables for the years FY2014 to FY2035, which form essential inputs for
conducting Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) on the basis of IMF and World Bank
DSA Framework and Excel Templates and Spreadsheets.
This Draft is being circulated for general comments and to initiate further
consultations with multi stakeholders. We would welcome any comments from all
stakeholders for verification of facts, data and information contained in this draft
Report and suggestions to revise, update and improve the document.
Mr. Muslim Chowdhury

Component Director (C1 and C2)
01 JUNE 2014

PREFACE
Consultants of the DMTBF Project with the support of the Treasury and Debt
Management Wing (TDMW) of the Finance Division have prepared a draft Report
entitled An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic accounting Spreadsheet Model
For Bangladesh Analytical Framework, Model Structure, Data Base, Test and
Calibration Techniques and base Line Medium and Long Term Projections
An alternative and full fledged Macro-Fiscal Econometric Model has already been
built by the Macro Fiscal Modeling Team (Sub-Component C1.1) with the help of the
EViews7 Software. However, that econometric model provides projections for only
three years and cannot provide long term projections.
But, for conducting Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) on the basis of IMF and World
Bank DSA Framework and Templates, we need forecasts of major macro-economic
variables for 20-25 years as inputs. The present Macroeconomic Accounting Model
has been built by the Debt Management and Policy Team in the DMTBF Project to fill
in this gap and to produce long term projections of the macroeconomic variables up
to the year 2035. As compared with the Macro-Fiscal Econometric Model developed
by the Macro-Fiscal Modeling Team, this model is a spreadsheet model calibrated by
using Excel Software on the basis of simple economic concepts like trend growth
rates and econometric relations for determination of elasticity and secular trends.
However, the model satisfies the basic statistical and econometric tests for such
models and is used in many other countries and accepted by the donors as a long
term forecasting model.
The Draft Report is being circulated to all stakeholders for their comments and to
initiate further consultations with them. On the basis of their comments the Draft
report will be revised. All stakeholders are, therefore, requested to provide their
comments and suggestions for revision and improvement of the Report.
Mr. Md. A R N Sakib

Additional Secretary
Treasury and Debt Management Wing
Finance Division
Ministry of finance
01 JUNE 2014

AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING SPREADSHEET

MODEL FOR BANGLADESH- ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK, MODEL STRUCTURE,
DATA BASE, TEST AND CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES AND BASE LINE MEDIUM
AND LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
CONTENTS
Contents
Pages
Foreword by Mr. Muslim Chowdhury, Component Director (C1 / C2)

Preface by Mr. Md. A R N Sakib, Additional Secretary (TDMW)
CONTENTS
1. Objectives, Scope, Analytical Framework and Model Structure
1.1 Objectives and Overview of the Model
1.2 Analytical Framework and Model Structure
1.3 Inter-Sectoral Financial Transaction Matrix
3
4
5
6-12
6
7
12
2. Data base and basic presumptions for the projections

2.2
Data Base on National Accounts
2.3
Basic Presumptions for Projections
13
13
13
3. Projection Techniques
3.1 Historical Growth Rates for the Real Sector
3.2 Base Line Time Trend Projections
3.3 Projections of GDP for the Years FY2015 to FY2035
3.4 Projections of other variables
3.5 Test and Calibration Techniques
14-16
14
15
16
16
16
4. Major Macroeconomic Assumptions and Projections
17-19
5. Development Prospects and Challenges
19-20
6. Basic Inputs for Debt sustainability Analysis (DSA)
21-24
Selected references
25
Annex-1: Variables and identities used in the model- descriptions and

units for measurement
Annex-2: Basic data for the years FY2004-FY2013, Summary
Statistics and Regression Equations, and Projections of Variables for
the FY2014-2035
Annex-3: Base Period (FY2014-FY2013) and Projected (FY2014FY2035) Growth Rates of Variables
Annex-4: Base Period (FY2014-FY2013) and Projected (FY2014-
27-31
33-53
55-75
77-96

FY2035) Ratios of Variables to GDP

AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

SPREADSHEET MODEL FOR BANGLADESH- ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK,
MODEL STRUCTURE, DATA BASE, TEST AND CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES AND
BASE LINE MEDIUM
AND LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
1. Objectives, Scope, Analytical Framework and Model Structure
1.1 Objectives and An Overview of the Model
The basic purpose of this exercise is to build up, test and calibrate an operational
macroeconomic model2 for Bangladesh within the consistent macroeconomic accounting
framework, depicting the underlying structure, trends and interrelations among major
macroeconomic variables. An alternative and full fledged Macro-Fiscal Econometric Model
has already been built by the Macro Fiscal Modeling Team with the help of the EViews7
Software on the basis of more advanced econometric techniques. However, that econometric
model provides medium term projections for only three years and cannot provide long term
projections, while for conducting Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) within the IMF and
World Bank DSA Framework and Templates we need forecasts of major macro-economic
variables for 20-25 years as inputs. The present Macroeconomic Accounting Model has been
built by the Debt Management and Policy Team in the DMTBF Project to fill in this gap. As
compared with the Macro-Fiscal Econometric Model developed by the Macro-Fiscal
Modeling Team, this model is a spreadsheet model calibrated by using Excel Software on the
basis of simple economic and econometric relations. However, this model satisfies the basic
statistical and econometric tests for such models and has the following advantages:
(1) The model is based on simple economic concepts viz. trend, exponential and secular
growth rates and elasticity of a macroeconomic variable with respect to GDP or related
other variables influencing the original variable;
(2) It is a spreadsheet model and can be calibrated very easily on the basis of Excel Software;
(3) The model satisfies the basic econometric tests and calibration techniques.
(4) It can produce standard projections and can perform simulations for alternative scenarios.
Brief Description of the Methodology
Derailed methodology for tests and calibration of the model is discussed in Section 3. Here
we present a brief introduction to the methodology. First of all, 10 sub-sector components of
GDP in agriculture, industry and services are projected on the basis of secular growth rates
observed in the past. Then, GDP at current market prices (total of 10 sub-sector GDP) is
taken as the leading factor influencing a variable, and elasticity ( ) of a variable with respect
to GDP is used to project major macroeconomic variables in various sub-models. The
elasticity of a variable with respect to GDP is estimated by fitting log-linear functions:
log (Yt) = + log (GDPMPt)
We
observe that both the exponential time trends and log-linear functions provide very good fits
as judged by R2. The results are indicated in Tables-1.1 to 1.19 in Annex-2 of this Report.
where Yt is a variable in year t and GDPMTt is GDP at current market prices in yeat t.
Similar types of the Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Models had been built by
the International Consultant Dr. Tarun Das for Nepal in South Asia and the Gambia in West Africa (see the
respective references in the bibliography at the end of this Report)..

As regards data base, time series data on major macroeconomic variables for the period from
FY20043 to FY2013 have been collected and processed on Excel Workfiles. The descriptions
and units of variables are presented in Annex-1. The time series data for the past years from
FY2004 to FY2013 along with standard descriptive statistics are given in Tables-1.1 to 1.13
in the Annex-2. We have also carried out the KPSS Unit Root tests on EViews7 for all the
variables used in our model and observed that most of the variables are trend stationary
within 5 percent level of significance. Therefore, the Classical Least Squares (CLS) method
can be used to fit the regression lines. Finally, we have tested the Granger causality test and
observed that the GDP at current market prices granger causes most of the macroeconomic
variables in the government finance, balance of payments, and monetary and financial blocks.
Therefore, we can use GDP elasticity for forecasting a variable provided we get a good loglinear (double log) fit relating a particular variable to GDP at current market prices.
1.2 Analytical Framework and Model Structure
The analytical framework used for this Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model is
consistent with the basic concepts and interrelations under the UN System of National
Accounts (UN-SNA), and the IMF Government Finance Statistics (GFS), Balance of
Payments (BOP) Statistics. the Monetary-Financial Statistics (MFS), and the Public Debt and
External Debt Statistics. The model consists of five inter-related accounts as indicated below:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Real Sector (National Accounts)

Government Sector (Fiscal Account)
External Sector (Balance of Payments Account)
Monetary Sector (Monetary and Financial Account) and
External Debt (Public Debt Account).
The basic structures of these sub-models and their interrelations are depicted in the form of a
flow diagram in Box-1.1. The linkages between key aggregates of the national accounts and
the balance of payments flows and government finance statistics can be summarized
algebraically within a savings/investment framework.
Acronyms and Symbols
Let us use the following symbols,
National Accounts System (NAS) and Real Sector
PVTC = Private Consumption Expenditure
GOVC = Government Consumption Expenditure
GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation = Gross Domestic Investment (GDI)
S = Gross Domestic Savings (GDS)
XGS = Exports of Goods and (Non-Factor) Services
MGS = Imports of Goods and (Non-Factor) Services
NFY = Net Factor Income from Abroad
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
GNP = Gross National Product = GDP + NFY
3
FY2004 means the fiscal year ending with June 2004. In other words, FY2004 starts with July 2003 and ends
with June 2004. Other fiscal years have similar interpretations.

GNDY = Gross National Disposable Income = GNP + Net Transfer from abroad
NT = Net Transfer from abroad
Supply Side of GDP
On the supply side, overall GDP equals the sum of sectoral value added for three broad
sectors viz. agriculture, industry and services, which are further divided in 10 subsectors as
described below. GDP for these 10 sub-sectors are projected at constant factor cost.
GDPFC = Real GDP at constant Factor Cost (FC) = GDPSector
= GDPAgriculture + GDPIndustry + GDPServices
In our model, Agriculture has one broad sector called agriculture. For practical purpose, it
comprises four sub-sectors viz. (a) Crops, (b) Livestock, (c) Forestry and (d) Fishing. For
simplicity, these sub-sectors are not modeled separately and grouped together to form one
sector called Agriculture.
Industry is modeled separately for four sub-sectors viz.
(a)
Mining and quarrying (Mining),
(b)
Manufacturing (Manuf),
(c)
Public utilities (Utility-comprising electricity, gas and water
supply), and
(d)
Construction (Const).
Service is modeled separately for five sub-sectors viz.
(a)
Trade (comprising wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants);
(b)
Transport and Communications (Trans);
(c)
Financial services, real estate, business and professional services
(Finance);
(d) Public Administration (PubAdm); and
(e) Other services (Others- comprising health, education and religious, personal
and community services).
Demand Side of GDP
The demand side of GDP comprises:
GDP=PVTC+GOVC+GFCF+XGS-MGS+Stocks
Where Stocks include inventories, stocks and errors and omissions in GDP estimation.
These subcomponents at current market prices are modeled separately by using elasticity with
respect to GDP. Gross National Income (GNI) equals GDP plus Net Factor Income (NFI)
from abroad, while Gross National Disposable Income equals GNI plus Net Transfer.
Balance of Payments (BOP)
CAB = current account balance in the balance of payments = TB + SB + FIB + NCT
RT = reserve asset transactions
9

TB = Merchandise trade balance = Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports

SB = Non-factor service balance (travel, tourism, financial, business, ICT etc.)
FIB = Factor income balance (interest, dividends, wages, rent, royalties etc.)
NCT = Net current transfer (official grants, private grants, remittances)
NKT = net capital transfers
NPNNA = net purchases of non-produced, non-financial assets
NFI = net foreign investment or net lending/ net borrowing vis--vis the rest of the world
NKA = net capital and financial account (i.e., all capital and financial transactions excluding
reserve assets)
Government Finance Statistics (GFS)
Receipts= Revenue plus Grants = R+GR
R = Revenue = T + NT
T = Tax revenue
NT = Non-tax revenue
GR = Grants
GEXP = Government expenditure and net lending = G + GK
G = government consumption expenditure
GK = Government capital expenditure and net lending = GCE + ND
GCE = Government capital expenditure
ND = Net lending
GFD = Gross Fiscal Deficit = (R+GR) GEXP
Basic Balance= Revenue less (GEXP excluding externally financed capital expenditure)
Basic Primary Balance = Basic Balance plus Interest Payments
Monetary-Financial Statistics (MFS)
MD = Demand for money = NFA+CRG + CRPE+CRP + OI
MS = Supply of money = Currency + Quasi Money = CN+(DD + TD)
M1= Quasi money = DD+TD
NFA = Net foreign assets
CRG = Credits to the government
CRPE= Credits to the public enterprises
CRP = Credits to the private sector
OI = Other items
DD = Demand deposits
TD = Time deposits
CN = Currency and notes in circulation
Prices, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
CPI = Consumer Price Index
GDPDF = GDP Deflator
Yield= Yield of Treasury Bills
INT = Rate of interest
ER = Exchange rate of the Gambian Dalasi per US dollar
10

The Macroeconomic Balance Equations stand as follow:

GDP = C + G + I + XM
(XM = balance on goods and services in the balance of payments)
GNP = GDP + NFY
CAB = X M + NFY+NCT
GNDY = C + G + I + CAB
GNDY = C + G + S
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Equating (4) and (5) we get:

S I = CAB i.e. saving-investment gap (resource gap) equals CAB
(6)
S I + (NKT NPNNA) = CAB + (NKTNPNNA) = NFI
(7)
(NKT NPNNA) = balance on the capital account of the balance of payments.
Interrelationship between the internal and external sectors of an economy can be seen in
greater detail by distinguishing between private and public sectors. Private saving and
investment (Sp and Ip) and government saving and investment (Sg and Ig) are identified as:
SI = Sp+SgIpIg
(8)
Use of the definition of the external current account from equation (1) then gives:
CAB = (SpIp) + (SgIg) = SI
(9)
Equation (9) shows that the private savings-investment balance plus the government fiscal
balance equals the current account balance. It also implies that, if government sector
dissaving is not offset by net saving of the private sector, the current account will be in
deficit. More specifically, the equation shows that the budgetary position of the government
(Sg-Ig) may be an important factor influencing the current account balance.
Government deficit is financed by borrowing from the domestic sector, borrowing from the
external sector and borrowing from the central bank. All these factors have influences on the
domestic capital and financial markets and also on the balance of payments.
Economists generally agree that a persistent fiscal deficit may ultimately spill over the
current account deficit in the balance of payments. On the converse, a sustained current
account deficit may reflect persistent government spending in excess of receipts, and such
excess spending may suggest that fiscal tightening is the appropriate policy action to tackle
both fiscal and balance of payments problems.
We also know that
CAB = NKA+RT = SI
(10)
Equation (10) shows that the current account balance is necessarily equal (with sign reversed)
to the net capital and financial account balance plus reserve asset transactions. This
relationship shows that the net provision, as measured by the current account balance, of
resources to or from the rest of the world mustby definitionbe matched by a change in
net claims on the rest of the world.
It may be useful to rewrite CAB as:
SI = CAB = TB+SB+FIB+NCT = NKA+RT, where
(11)
Where TB, SB, FIB and NCT stand for trade balance, services balance, factor incomes
balance and transfer balance respectively.
11

Box-1.1: Basic Structures of Macroeconomic Sub-models and Inter-linkages
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
Revenues
Taxes and non-taxes
Grants
Expenditures
Current
Capital
Overall balance
Financing
Domestic financing (net)
Banking system
Nonbanking sector
External financing (net)
REAL SECTOR
National Accounts
GDP at current market prices
Private consumption
General govt. consumption
General govt. investment
Private investment
Exports of goods and
Non-factor services
Imports of goods and
Non-factor services
MONETARY SECTOR
Monetary Authorities
Net Foreign Assets
Net domestic assets:
Net credit to central
govt.
Credit to banks
Other items (net)
Reserve money
Balance of Payments
CURRENT ACCOUNT
Exports of goods and
Non-factor services
Imports of goods and
Non-factor services
Factor services (net)
Transfers (net)
Official
Private
Deposit Money Banks

Banks' reserves
Net Foreign Assets
Net domestic assets:
Net credit to central
govt.
Credit to private sector
Other items (net)
Liabilities to monetary
authorities
Private sector deposits
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
Direct investment
Medium/long-term
capital (net)
Short-term capital (net)
Overall balance
Change in net foreign
assets
12

1.3 Inter-Sectoral Financial Transactions Matrix

In a paper entitled Balances, Imbalances and Fiscal Targets- a New Cambridge Model
Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance
(CERF), University of Cambridge used a simplified accounting matrix to illustrate the
interrelations of financial transactions among various sectors of the economy. They
argued that macroeconomic analysis would be easier if the main income and expenditure
flows comprising the GDP are arranged in a double entry format as in Table-1.1. The
two-way table indicates clearly the transactions among any two economic agents viz.
producers, consumers, government, and rest of the world. The matrix shows how the gap
between receipts and outlays of any sector implies an equivalent rise or fall in its net
acquizition of financial assets.
Table-1.1: A Simplified Macro Transactions Matrix
1.Pvt. Exp
Income/
Expenditure
-C
Production
Governmen
t
Rest of the
World
+C
Total
0
2.Gov. Exp
+G
3.Exports
+X
-X
4.Imports
-M
+M
5.GDP
+Y
6.Taxes,
Fact. Pay.
7.Financial
Balances
-TP
+NAFA
= Y-C-TP
-G
-Y
+T
-TF
+PSNB
=T-G
-BP
=M-X-TF
In this matrix the national income identity is shown, running vertically down in column 2,
as the appropriation account of a postulated production sector. It says that gross domestic
product, Y, is equal to private expenditure, C plus government expenditure, G, plus
exports, X, less imports, M. Every item in the GDP identity has a counterpart with the
opposite sign in some other column. Taxes less transfers, T, are received or paid by the
government; net property income, taxes and tranfers, TF and TP, are paid by respectively
the external and private sectors. The total in line 7 shows that public borrowing, PSNB,
equals the private net acquisition of financial assets, NAFA, (that is saving less
investment, or net saving) minus the balance of payments surplus, BP or plus the deficit.
Wynne Godley and Alex Izurieta illustrated the analysis with the help of UK and USA
data. One important conclusion of the analysis is that the financial balances (relative to
income flows) must stay within certain limits for maintaining the sustainability of public
debt over time. This in turn implies that that a strict monitoring of these basic balances is
essential for formulation of effective macro stabilization policies.
13

2 Data Base and Basic Presumptions for Projections

The basic data for major macro economic variables 4 for the years FY2004 to FY2013 5 are obtained
from various official sources and those for major macroeconomic variables are compiled by the
Macroeconomic Wing (MEW) of the Finance Division. Basic data on national accounts are obtained
from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (GBOS). Data on government finance statistics are obtained
from the Finance Division. Data on monetary and financial statistics and the balance of payments
statistics are obtained from the Bangladesh Bank (BB). Data on External Debt are obtained from the
FABA and Domestic Debt is obtained from the Debt Department of the BB.
2.1 Data Base on National Accounts

It presents time series data on sectoral GDP at both current and constant 1995 prices in
national currency (millions of Bangladesh Taka) for the years FY2004-FY2013. It has data on
both broad sectors of the economy viz. agriculture, industry and services, and sub-sectors
within these broad sectors. As mentioned above, agriculture and allied sectors comprising
crops, animal husbandry, forestry and fishing is modeled as a single sector. Industry is sub
divided into four sub-sectors viz. mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction and
public utilities (comprising electricity, gas and water supply). Services sector is sub divided
into five sub-sectors viz. (a) Trade (comprising wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants); (b) Transport and Communications; (c) Financial services, real estate and
business and professional services; (d) Public Administration; and (e) Other services
(comprising health, education and religious, personal and community services).
2.2 Basic Presumptions for Projections
Our forecasts of key macro-economic variables for the years FY2015-FY2035 take into
account the developments in the current year FY2014 and IMF-World Bank Medium Term
Outlook for the years 2015 to 2017. We further assume that the recent past problems of
hartals and political disturbances are unlikely to reappear in future. In addition, our
projections are based on the following presumptions:
(a) Government will continue with the prudent macroeconomic management and debt
management policies and strategy.
(b) Government will continue to encourage for foreign and private investment;
(c) There will be no political disturbances or no labor unrest;
(d) There will be no weather socks or no major natural disasters;
(e) There will be no other internal and external shocks, except for volatile oil prices.
(f) Tourists arrivals and travel incomes would continue to be at normal levels;
(g) Remittances would continue to be buoyant;
(h) Donors support would continue at normal levels;
(i) Major projects such as metro rail and Padma bridge will be completed in time;
(j) There will be stability in the real exchange rate of the Bangladesh Taka during the
projection period i.e. the rate of depreciation of Bangladesh Taka will be equal to
the difference between the domestic inflation rate and USA inflation rate.
3 Projection Techniques
4
The list of variables with descriptions and units is presented in Annex-1.

The year refers to the calendar year starting with January and ending with December, which is also the fiscal
year for the Gambia.
5
14

Components of supply side of the GDP (i.e. sectoral value added) are projected on the basis
of the historical growth rates adjusted for large variations, if any. Other variables in the model
are estimated by elasticity with respect to nominal GDP at current market prices. However,
only individual items in different sub-models are projected by this method, while the
aggregates are estimated on the basis of standard identities and balance equations to satisfy
consistency among various variables and partial equilibrium within the system.
3.1 Historical Growth Rates for the Real Sector
Basic methodology used is the standard time series analysis to estimate historical growth
rates on the basis of three kinds of time trend growth rates viz., least squares time trend
growth rate, exponential growth rate and simple average annual growth rate. To start with,
we estimate the average historical growth rate for each of 10 sub-sectors of GDP (1 in
agriculture, 4 in industry and 5 in services). Three kinds of growth rates, as indicated below,
are estimated on the basis of the past time series data for the period from FY2004 to FY2013
and presented in the Tables 1.1 to 1.19 in Annex-2.
(a) Least-squares time trend growth rate
The IMF uses the Least-squares growth rates to forecast the country growth rates for their
World Economic Outlook (WEO) published twice in a year, wherever there is past data for at
least 9 years to permit a reliable calculation. The least-squares growth rate, r, is estimated by
fitting a linear regression trend line to the logarithmic annual values of the variable in the
relevant period. The regression equation takes the form
Ln Yt = a + bt
which is equivalent to the logarithmic transformation of the compound growth equation,
Yt = Yo (1 + r)t
In this equation, Y is the variable, t is time, r is the trend growth rate, Ln is the natural
logarithm operator, and a = log Yo and b = Ln (1 + r) are the parameters to be estimated.
If b* is the least-squares estimate of b, the average annual growth rate, r, is obtained as
r = [exp(b*) 1] and is multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.
The calculated growth rate is an average rate that is representative of the available
observations over the entire period. It does not necessarily match the actual growth rate
between any two years.
(b) Exponential growth rate
The exponential growth rate between two points in time for a variable is calculated from the
following equation
r = Ln (Yn /Y1)/(n-1)and is multiplied by 100 to express it as a percentage.
15

where Yn and Y1 are the last and first observations in the period, n is the number of years in
the period, and Ln is the natural logarithm operator. This growth rate is based on a model of
continuous and exponential growth between two points in time. It does not take into account
the intermediate values of the series.
(c) Average of Annual Growth rates
Average Annual Growth Rate () = GRi /n
GRi = 100 * (Yi / Yi-1 -1) for i=1, 2, n for the years 1975,1976 ..... 2009.
CV = 100 * SD/
SD = (GRi - ) / n
Where Ln stands for natural logarithm, GRi for growth rate for the i-th year, CV for
coefficient of variation and SD for standard deviation.
3.2 Base Line Time Trend Projections
On the supply side, the projections of sectoral value added for the years 2014-2020 are done
on the basis of the maximum of the three types of growth rates as mentioned above. In
general, for most of the variables, the trend growth rate happens to be the maximum growth
rate and is taken for projecting the sectoral GDP at both constant and current prices 6. Thus we
have,
YCST= YCSTAGR+YCSTIND+YCSTSER-YCSTFISM
YFC=YFCAGR+YFCIND+YFCSER-YFCSISM
YFCIND=YFCMIN+YFCMANF+YFCUTILITY+YFCCONST
YFCSER=YFCTRADE+YFCTRANS+YFCFIN+YFCSOCIAL
YMP=YFC+YINDTAX
YGNI = YMP+BOPINCOME
YGNDI=YGNI+BOPTRANSFER
As mentioned earlier, past data for the years 2004-2013 along with standard descriptive
statistics are presented in Tables 1.1 to 1.19 in Annex-2. These Tables also present the
projections of sector GDP at both current and constant prices for the years 2015-2035. These
Tables also indicate the fitted regression lines log (Yt) = + Time; and log (Y t) = +
log (GDPMPt) and the corresponding R for estimation of the trend growth rates of the
variables and the elasticity of the variable with respect to the GDP at current market prices.
3.3 Projections of GDP for the years 2014 to 2035

In general, we use the following equation for forecasting:
It may also be possible that annual growth rates are volatile with high standard deviation
(SD) and co-efficient of variation (CV=SD/). Then the corresponding average annual
growth rates cannot hold good for the medium and long term. If for any variable, there is high
CV (say exceeding 50%), the projected growth rate can be modified on the basis of the
following formula: Projected growth rate = Trend growth rate minus 25 percent of SD.
6
16

Yt = Yo (1 + r)t
Where Yo = GDP in the base year FY2013
0 = Base year FY2013
t = 1, 2, 3, ------22 for years 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017------------------------------and 2035
Nominal GDP at current market prices is projected by the following equation:
GDPNt = GDPt (1 + 0.01 * INFGDPt)
Where INFPGDPt is the projected inflation factor (i.e. 1+Inflation rate) in terms of GDP
deflator for the year t.
3.4 Projections of other variables
Projections of other macroeconomic variables for government finance, balance of
payments, and money supply are done on the basis of standard elasticity approach. As
mentioned earlier, first of all, a log linear regression equation is fitted by regressing
natural logarithm of a variable on the natural logarithm of GDP at current market prices.
LnYt = + LnGDPt
where Yt is the value of a variable in year t and GDP t is the nominal GDP at current market
prices in year t for the years 2003 to 2013. It is clear that is the elasticity of the variable
with respect to GDP.
y,gdp = LnYt / LnGDPt
Projected growth rate for the variable for a year is estimated by the following relation:
Projected growth rate for a variable Y = y,gdp times GRgdp
Where y,gdp = elasticity of Y with respect to GDP (which is constant) and
GRgdp = Growth rate of GDP in year t (which may change over the years).
Tables 2.1 to Tables 2.19 in Annex-3 presents the projections of all variables for the years
2015-2035 along with resultant annual growth rates and the ratio of a variable to the GDP at
the current market prices. The table clearly indicates the projection method and the average
growth rate with CV for a variable for the projection period.
3.5 Test and Calibration Techniques
As mentioned earlier, trend growth rates are estimated by fitting exponential (semi-log)
time trends and elasticity of a variable with respect to GDP at current market prices is
estimated by fitting log-linear (double log) regression equations. The ordinary least
squares (OLS) method is used for fitting these relations. The goodness of fit is judged by
R2 which is observed to be very high for most of the variables (Appendix-2).
7. Major Macroeconomic Assumptions and Projections
17

On the basis of assumptions as described in section 2.2 above, various macro

economic variables will have the projected trends as given in Tables 2.1 to 2.19,
3.1 to 3.19 and 4.1 to 4.19 in Annex-2, Aneex-3 and Annex-4 respectively. Trends
of major variables are summarized in Table below.
Table-4.1: Growth Rates of Major Macroeconomic Variables
(Average Growth Rate per Annum)
Items
Average Rate
Annual growth rate of real GDP (%)

CPI (Base 1995/96) Inflation Rate (%)
Rate of Depreciation of Taka per US$ (%)
Annual growth rate of GDP at current prices (%)
Growth rate of private consumption (%)
Growth rate of public consumption (%)
Growth Rate of Investment (%)
Growth rate of Money Supply (%)
Growth rate of revenue receipts (%)
Growth rate of Taxes (%)
Growth rate of Nontax receipts (%)
Growth rate of Government Expenditure (%)
Growth rate of current expenditure (%)
Growth rate of capital expenditure (%)
Growth rate of exports of goods and services (%)
Growth rate of imports of goods and services (%)
Growth rate Income, net from abroad (%)
Growth rate of Foreign Transfers (%)
Growth rate of Remittances (%)
Growth rate of Foreign Direct Investment (%)
FY2004
to
FY2014
6.3
6.0
3.7
13.3
13.2
13.9
14.8
18.4
16.1
16.3
16.3
16.2
16.8
17.1
15.4
15.6
16.9
15.6
17.7
21.9
FY2015
to
FY2021
6.8
5.0
2.5
14.3
14.4
14.5
15.4
19.5
17.0
17.3
15.7
17.1
17.7
15.7
12.6
12.9
15.0
10.0
11.0
12.5
FY2022
to
FY2035
6.8
5.0
2.3
14.2
13.8
13.6
14.6
18.7
17.0
17.2
15.6
15.1
15.0
15.5
12.7
10.8
15.1
10.0
11.0
12.2
\
Table 4.2: Ratios of Major Macroeconomic Variables to GDP (in percentage)
Agriculture value added (% of GDP)
Industry value added (% of GDP)
Services value added (% of GDP)
Private consumption (% of GDP)
Government consumption (% of GDP)
Gross domestic investment (% of GDP)
Money Supply (% of GDP)
Revenue receipts (% of GDP)
Tax Receipts (% of GDP)
Nontax Receipts (% of GDP)
Government expenditure (% of GDP)
Current Expenditure (% of GDP)
Capital Expenditure (% of GDP)
Capital A/C Balance in GFS (% of GDP)
Revenue A/C Balance (% of GDP)
Budget Balance (% of GDP)
Current A/C Balance in BOP (% of GDP)
19.9
28.9
51.2
74.7
5.5
25.1
49.6
11.6
9.4
2.2
15.2
10.1
5.0
-5.0
1.7
-3.2
1.0
18
16.3
32.8
50.9
75.4
5.7
28.1
73.7
14.7
12.2
2.5
18.9
13.1
5.8
-5.8
1.6
-3.5
-0.5
12.8
36.8
50.5
74.0
5.5
30.0
113.8
18.9
16.1
2.8
21.8
15.2
6.6
-6.6
3.7
-1.8
0.1

Items
Average Rate
FY2004
to
FY2014
-7.8
20.1
28.0
-1.4
10.2
9.5
1.0
8.3
Goods & services Balance (% of GDP)

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)
Income, net from abroad (% of GDP)
Transfers from abroad (% of GDP)
Remittances (% of GDP)
FDI
Reserves (% of GDP)
FY2015
to
FY2021
-9.1
25.0
34.0
-2.2
10.8
10.9
1.0
8.5
FY2022
to
FY2035
-6.2
27.7
33.8
-3.1
9.3
10.3
1.1
4.2
GDP growth rate: As compared to the past average growth rate of 6.3 percent
per annum, GDP at constant market prices is expected to grow at the rate of 6.8
in the projection period up to the FY2035. This assumption is based on the fact
that in spite of the global recession and financial crisis observed in the recent
past, export from Bangladesh managed to rebound to upward trend recently
which implicitly indicates competitiveness of Bangladeshi export items.
Moreover, as the adult literacy rate of the country is increasing coupled with
significant level of women empowerment, total factor productivity is expected to
improve. It is also expected that the government will undertake large
infrastructure investment projects such as the Padma Bridge, extension of metro
rail, another deep sea port etc. and these investments are expected to boost
GDP growth rate.
Inflation: The current monetary policy aims at containing inflation around 7.5%.
MEW assumes that the policy will be successful to achieve the target over the
years. Inflation will further come down to 5%.
Exchange rate: Historically Taka depreciated against the US dollar at a rate of
around 3.7% (for the period FY 2004 to FY 2014). It is assumed that both the
domestic and the trading partners inflation rates will stabilize at low level, and
government will adopt monetary policies to keep the real exchange rate
constant over thev years. Accoordily Taka is expected to depreciate by 2.7 per
cent in the medium term and 2.3 per cent in the long tern
Tax revenue: The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has already taken steps to
reform its tax policy to increase tax base and mobilize additional tax revenues. It
is expected that through befitting tax policy reforms, revenue as percentage of
GDP will rise from 14.7% in the madim term to 18.9% in the long term.
Remittance: Although currently growth rate of remittance is rebounding strongly
and showing upward trend, it is expected that growth rate of remittance will
stabilize at a level lower than its historical average (14%). Because of the
ongoing global recession, employment opportunities abroad for unskilled workers
are shrinking and this might affect adversely the growth rate of remittances from
abroad. Yet, as the Bangladeshi wage earners traditionally have strong family
bondage at home, this might help the growth rate of remittance from falling
19

abruptly. It is assumed that the long-run growth rate of remittance will be around
11%.
Net FDI: Bangladesh has been cited by global research organizations as one of
most potential investment destination. However, political situation in the country
is still not clear and may turn towards adverse directions in near future. The level
of governance is often characterized as unsatisfactory and level of corruption is
regarded widespread. These factors increase the cost of doing business in the
country. Therefore, in spite of having a good geographical location and large pool
of cheap labor, the country might not be able to attract substantial FDI.
Therefore, it has been assumed that in the long-run, net FDI will have a modest
growth of 12.5 per cent per annum and FDI would constitute barely 1.1% of GDP.
Overall deficit: The GOB is keen to keep its fiscal policy at manageable level and
therefore usually does not allow the budget deficit to grow beyond 5% of GDP.
The same trend is expected in the medium term and the long term. According to
the SFYP, the government will try to keep the deficit (including grants) at 3.5% of
GDP in the medium term and 2.8 per cent of GDP in the long term.
5. Development Prospects and Challenges

As reported earlier, despite the unprecedented global financial crisis and economic recession
in the developed countries in the USA and Europe since 2009 and the consequent slowdown
in the emerging developing economies in recent years, the medium term prospects for
sustained growth and poverty reduction of Bangladesh are considered to be bright, but
vulnerable to both internal and external risks. With its fertile land accompanied by plenty of
water and sunshine, significant gas reserves, talented people and strategic geographical
location in the South Asia to support two giant neighboring countries China and India and
other countries, Bangladesh has a natural advantage to achieve growth rates in the range of
6.5 to 7 per cent in the medium and long term. But, there will be pressures on both domestic
finances and external balance of payments in the medium and long term.
Bangladesh's Ba3 sovereign rating by the International Credit Rating Agency Moods is
influenced by the recent political disturbances, low per capita income and low institutional
and government financial strengths. Offsetting such weak structural fundamentals,
Bangladesh has established a track record of resilient growth and ongoing poverty reduction
and employment generation through various anti-poverty programs and development projects
while exhibiting a low susceptibility to external risks. The future outlook for economic
growth and development is, therefore, very bright and stable.
Recent macroeconomic pressures stemming from a negative terms of trade shocks, decline in
remittances caused by political disturbances in the Middle East and delays in aid
disbursements have weakened the balance of payments. However, current external liquidity
remains sufficient and does not create problems for the medium term, but export products and
market concentration risks might introduce some degree of vulnerability in near term. While
desirable and effective monetary and financial policies have resulted in stable inflation, a
sustainable moderation in price pressures, particularly stemming from food and fuel prices,
would rest on continued expenditure restraints and a containment of government borrowings.
20

An Extended Credit Facility (ECF) by the IMF and the ongoing Deepening Medium Term
Budget Framework (DMTBF) administered by the World Bank are guiding the pipeline for
economic policy changes and governance reforms. The successful completion of the general
elections of 2014 has also induced financial market stablization and fiscal discipline.
Policymakers appear to be on track towards meeting targets for outputs and outcomes of
several ongoing development projects and programs.
Overall, economic outlook remains bright with manageable external financing position and
debt service burden. Official access to low-cost and long-term external financing
would limit exchange rate and sovereign debt rollover risks. The successful general
election and the newly formed government have created investor confidence and
risks from external and internal sources remain manageable.
The main challenge will be to ensure fiscal sustainability and stability in prices and real
exchange rates by adopting strict fiscal and monetary discipline and sound management of
public debt and external assistance. In addition to these policy risks, medium term output is
vulnerable to unfavorable weather shocks in the domestic sector and risk of sharp upward
trends of global prices of petroleum and food products and downward trend of export prices
of its traditional products of garments and cloths.
An important development challenge is to use government revenues to attain higher growth
and at the same time to tackle the problems of poverty and regional and interpersonal
inequity. In this respect, the ongoing efforts on the Public Financial Management Reforms
(PFMR) and the intentions of the government to introduce Strategic and Business Planning
and Budgeting for the line Ministries and Divisions within the Medium Term Expenditure
Framework (MTEF) are in the right directions.
Although the concerned ministries have the major responsibilities for achieving MDG targets
and the Planning Commission has the responsibility to achieve regional equity and to assist
the budgetary agencies for the preparation of strategic plans and Public Investment Programs
(PIPs), the Ministry of Finance, being the coordinating and leading Ministry for budgeting
and funding, has special responsibilities to provide necessary advice and directions to other
ministries on Medium Term Budgeting and Strategic Business Planning.
The core challenge for the government budget is how to adopt long-term MDG targets within
the short-term and medium-term national budget constraints and priorities. MDG strategies
are both needs based and resource constrained. The national budget must take care of
poverty reduction strategies as a guide to MDG action, and set out clear priorities for pro-poor
public expenditure and investment plans based on a realistic assessment of the available
resources and the needs of other sectors. Management of overall resources and internal and
external public debt must be well managed to complement and supplement these budgetary
and fiscal policies to achieve sustained high growth with stability in prices, exchange rates
and interest rates.
21

8. Inputs for Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been conducted by using the standard DSA
Framework7 and Excel Templates and Spreadsheets formulated jointly by the World Bank
and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Inputs for the DSA include two kinds of inputs
(a) major macroeconomic variables and (b) public debt profiles. For both these groups we
need base year data for the last ten years (FY2004 to FY2013) and projections of these
variables for the next 22 years (FY2014 to FY2035). The paper deals with
macroeconomic variables. Inputs for the macroeconomic variables are needed for the
following variables:
Items
C/A BOP Balance (US$ Bln)
Exports of goods & services (US$ Bln)
Imports of goods & services (US$ Bln)
Current transfers, net total (US$ Bln)
Current transfers, official (US$ Bln)
Gross Workers' Remittances (US$ Bln)
Net foreign direct investment (US$ Bln)
Exceptional financing (US$ Bln)
Gross Reserves (Flow) (US$ Bln)
Pub Sector balance (Bln TK)
Pub Sector Rev.(incl.grants) Bln TK)
Public sector grants Bln TK)
Privatization receipts Bln TK)
Public sector expenditure Bln TK)
Public sector int. exp. Bln TK)
GDP CurMP (U.S. $ Billion)
GDP Cst. Prices (Billion Taka)
US GDP Deflator (Index)
Exch Rate. BTK/US$ end.FY
Exch Rate, BTK/US$,average
Growth rate of GDP at CMP (percentage)
The ten year base period data and 22 years projections of these major macroeconomic
variables are given in detaills in Tables in Annexes 2 to 4 and summarized in Tables 6.1
to 6.6 below.
Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis, the Fiscal Affairs
Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF, Approved by Carlo Cottarelli and Reza
Moghadam, pp.1-58, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., August 5, 2011.
22

Table-6.1 BASE DATA and Medium/Long Term Projections for

Major Macroeconomic Variables for DSA
Items
Exports of goods & services
Imports of goods & services
Current transfers, net total
Current transfers, official
Gross Workers' Remittances
Net foreign direct investment
Exceptional financing
Gross Reserves (Flow)
Pub Sector Rev.(incl.grants)
Public sector grants
Privatization receipts
Public sector expenditure
Public sector int. exp.
US GDP Deflator
Growth rate of GDP at CMP
2003-04
0.2
8.4
11.6
3.7
0.1
3.7
0.4
0.0
0.2
-78.0
366.0
15.0
0.0
444.0
149.4
56.5
2519.7
97.9
60.4
58.9
6.3
2004-05
-0.6
9.8
13.9
4.3
0.0
4.3
0.8
0.0
0.1
-114.0
404.0
12.0
0.0
518.0
155.6
60.4
2669.8
100.0
63.8
61.4
6.0
2005-06
0.8
11.8
15.7
5.4
0.1
5.3
0.7
0.0
0.3
-114.0
467.0
21.0
0.0
581.0
170.0
62.0
2846.7
102.4
69.7
67.1
6.6
2006-07
1.0
13.5
18.3
6.6
0.1
6.5
0.8
0.0
1.5
-134.0
507.0
11.0
0.0
641.0
174.9
68.4
3029.7
104.2
68.8
69.0
6.4
2007-08
0.7
16.0
22.9
8.5
0.1
8.4
0.7
0.0
0.3
-262.0
645.0
25.0
0.0
907.0
173.9
79.6
3217.3
106.4
68.5
68.6
6.2
2008-09
2.5
17.4
23.7
10.2
0.1
10.2
1.0
0.0
2.1
-205.0
688.0
21.0
0.0
893.0
174.4
89.4
3402.0
109.5
69.1
68.8
5.7
Table-6.2 Medium/Long Term Projections for Major Macroeconomic

Variables for DSA
Items
US GDP Deflator
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
3.5
18.7
25.1
11.4
0.1
11.3
0.9
0.0
2.9
-192.0
823.0
32.0
0.0
1015.0
175.3
100.4
3608.6
113.0
69.5
69.2
6.1
-1.7
25.2
37.7
12.3
0.1
12.2
0.8
0.0
-0.7
-305.0
978.0
24.0
0.0
1283.0
180.4
111.9
3850.7
116.6
74.2
71.2
6.7
-0.4
26.7
39.0
13.4
0.1
13.3
1.2
0.0
0.5
-290.0
1209.0
36.0
0.0
1499.0
200.5
116.1
4090.5
119.5
81.8
79.1
6.2
2.5
29.4
39.6
15.0
0.1
14.9
1.3
0.0
0.3
-305.6
1366.1
66.0
0.0
1671.7
210.2
124.2
4337.0
121.5
77.8
79.9
6.0
23
P201314
1.5
34.7
46.9
16.5
0.1
14.9
1.5
0.0
0.7
-376.0
1662.3
77.9
1.0
2038.3
243.9
144.7
4628.9
126.1
79.7
81.9
6.7
P201415
1.1
39.1
52.9
18.2
0.1
16.4
1.6
0.0
0.7
-439.1
1944.7
92.0
1.0
2383.7
265.5
161.3
4941.8
128.5
81.7
83.9
6.8


Variables for DSA
Items
US GDP Deflator
P201516
0.6
44.0
59.7
20.0
0.1
18.1
1.9
0.0
0.7
-513.0
2275.7
108.6
1.0
2788.7
295.6
179.8
5277.1
130.9
83.7
86.0
6.8
P201617
-0.1
49.5
67.4
22.0
0.1
19.9
2.1
0.0
0.7
-599.6
2664.1
128.3
1.0
3263.7
302.3
200.5
5636.6
133.4
85.8
88.2
6.8
P201718
-1.0
55.8
76.1
24.2
0.1
21.9
2.3
0.0
0.7
-701.2
3119.7
151.6
1.0
3821.0
349.2
223.6
6022.2
135.9
87.9
90.4
6.8
P201819
-2.1
62.8
85.9
26.6
0.1
24.1
2.6
0.0
0.7
-820.5
3654.6
179.2
1.0
4475.0
405.3
249.5
6435.8
138.5
90.1
92.6
6.9
P201920
-3.5
70.8
97.0
29.2
0.1
26.5
3.0
0.0
0.8
-960.5
4282.5
211.9
1.0
5243.0
474.6
278.4
6879.5
141.2
92.4
94.9
6.9
P202021
-5.1
79.8
109.6
32.2
0.1
29.1
3.3
0.0
0.8
-1125.0
5019.9
250.7
1.0
6144.9
549.5
310.7
7355.7
143.8
94.7
97.3
6.9

Variables for DSA
Items
US GDP Deflator
P202122
-7.2
90.0
123.9
35.4
0.2
32.0
3.8
0.0
0.8
-1318.3
5886.3
296.6
1.0
7204.5
567.8
346.9
7866.8
146.6
97.0
99.7
6.9
P202223
-6.7
101.2
136.9
38.9
0.2
38.8
4.2
0.0
0.8
-1395.8
6871.3
347.5
2.5
8267.1
640.2
386.4
8384.1
149.4
98.7
102.0
6.6
24
P202324
-5.9
113.9
151.2
42.8
0.2
42.6
4.7
0.0
0.8
-1467.5
8022.0
407.1
2.5
9489.5
725.7
430.5
8938.1
152.2
100.4
104.4
6.6
P202425
-5.0
128.1
167.2
47.1
0.2
46.9
5.3
0.0
0.8
-1527.4
9368.8
477.0
2.5
10896.2
828.3
479.9
9531.7
155.1
102.1
106.8
6.6
P202526
-3.8
144.2
184.8
51.8
0.2
51.6
5.9
0.0
0.9
-1569.8
10945.8
558.8
2.5
12515.5
940.2
535.0
10167.7
158.0
103.9
109.3
6.7
P202627
-2.2
162.4
204.3
57.0
0.2
56.8
6.7
0.0
0.9
-1587.4
12792.7
654.7
2.5
14380.0
983.4
596.6
10849.3
161.0
105.7
111.9
6.7


Variables for DSA
Items
US GDP Deflator
P202728
-0.2
183.0
226.0
62.7
0.3
62.4
7.5
0.0
0.9
-1571.2
14956.4
767.1
2.5
16527.6
1127.1
665.5
11580.0
164.1
107.5
114.5
6.7
P202829
2.2
206.2
250.1
69.0
0.3
68.7
8.4
0.0
0.9
-1509.5
17492.2
898.7
2.5
19001.7
1288.1
742.6
12363.5
167.2
109.4
117.2
6.8
P202930
5.2
232.4
276.8
75.9
0.3
75.5
9.4
0.0
0.9
-1388.2
20464.8
1052.9
2.5
21853.0
1692.0
828.9
13203.8
173.6
111.3
119.9
6.8
P203132
8.8
262.0
306.4
83.4
0.4
83.1
10.5
0.0
0.9
-1189.1
23950.7
1233.6
2.5
25139.8
1852.2
925.5
14105.2
176.9
113.2
122.7
6.8

Variables for DSA
Items
US GDP Deflator
P203233
13.1
295.5
339.2
91.8
0.4
91.4
11.8
0.0
1.0
-890.0
28039.7
1445.3
2.5
28929.7
28929.7
1033.6
15072.3
1749.9
115.2
125.6
2033-34
2034-35
18.4
333.4
375.7
101.0
0.4
100.5
13.3
0.0
1.0
-463.3
32837.5
1693.4
2.5
33300.8
33300.8
1154.6
16110.1
1821.1
117.2
128.5
24.7
376.2
416.2
111.1
0.5
110.6
14.9
0.0
1.0
125.0
38468.7
1984.0
2.5
38343.7
38343.7
1290.1
17224.1
1895.2
119.2
131.5
25

6.9
6.9
6.9
Selected References
Budget Directorate (2010) Budget Call Circular for the 2011 Budget, pp.1-21, Ministry
of Finance (MOF), The Republic of the Gambia, July 2010.
Das, Tarun (2009) Inception Report- Macroeconomic Analysis, Modeling and
Projections, pp.1-57, Institutional Support Project for Economic Financial
Governance (ISPEFG), The Department of State for Financial and Economic Affairs
(DOSFEA), the Gambia, Quadrangle, Banjul, January 2009.
Epstein, Gerald and Ilene, Grabel (2007) Training Module No.3: Financial Policy,
International Poverty Centre (IPC), Brazil, July 2007.
Filho, Alfredo Saad (2007) Training Module No.2: Monetary Policy, International
Poverty Centre (IPC), Brazil, July 2007.
International Monetary Fund (2010a) The Gambia- Building on the Gambia Revenue
Authority (GRA) Success- A Tax Reform Program anchored on VAT, Report prepared by
the IMF TA Mission comprising David Kloeden (Head of TAM), Patriick Fossat and
Maureen Kidd, pp.1-62, IMF, June 2010.
International Monetary Fund (2010b) The World Economic Outlook Update, July
2010, IMF, Washington D.C.
International Monetary Fund (2010c) The Gambia- Strengthening Budgetary
Management and Sequencing Reforms, Report prepared by the IMF TA Mission
comprising Duncan Last (Head of TAM), Florence Kuteesa and Camille Caramaga, pp.151, IMF, July 2010.
International Monetary Fund (2010d) The Gambia- Staff Report for the 2010 Article
IV Consultation, pp.1-46, IMF, 12 July 2010.
Ministry of Finance, The Republic of the Gambia (2010) Draft Memorandum of
Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), submitted by the Government of the Gambia,
16 July 2010, PP.1-16.
Statistics and Special Studies Division (SSSD (2010a) The Gambia Monthly Economic
Bulletin, pp.1-38, Ministry of Finance (MOF), The Republic of the Gambia, June 2010.
Statistics and Special Studies Division (SSSD) (2010b) Macroeconomic Framework
and Fiscal Envelope for the Budget 2011, pp.1-24, Ministry of Finance (MOF), The
Republic of the Gambia, July 2010.
26

Weeks, John and Shruti Patel (2007) Training Module-1: Fiscal Policy,
International Poverty Centre (IPC), Brazil, July 2007.
27

28

Annex-1
Variables used for the Operational Consistent
Macroeconomic Accounting
Spreadsheet Model for Bangladesh
29

30

Annex-1
Variables used for the Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting
Spreadsheet Model for Bangladesh
Serial
No.
1
2
Description
Time
Population
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Type
Variable
GDPcstMP
AGR
MINING
MANUF
UTILITY
CONST
TRADE
TRANS
FINANCE
PUBADM
OTHERS
INDTAX
NFI
GNI
CPI (95/96)
GDPDF
EndExRTK
AveExRTK
GDPCURMP
PVTC
GOVC
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
GFCF
XGS
MGS
STOCKS
GNICurMP
GDCF
GNS
GDS
NCT
PCGDP(TK)
PCGNI(TK)
35
36
37
38
39
40
M1(BlnTK)
Currency
DemDepo
Quasimony
MoneySup
FornAssets
1 to 33 with Year FY2003 to FY2035

Population
Real sector and National Accounts Block
Overall GDP at constant 1995-96 market prices
=GDP for Agriculture, Industry and Services
Agriculture GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Mining & Quarrying GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Manufacturing GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Public utilities GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Construction GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Trade and storage GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Transport & Communications GDP at constant 1995-96
prices
Financial Services GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Public Administration GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Other Services GDP at constant 1995-96 prices
Indirect taxes
Net factor income from abroad
Gross National Income= GDP+NFI
Consumer Price Index (Base 1995/96=100)
GDP Deflator=GDP at current prices/ GDP at constant prices
End period Exchange Rate (Taka per US$)
Average period Exchange Rate (Taka per US$)
GDP at current market prices
=PVTC+GOVC+GFCF+XGS-MGS+STOCKS
Private consumption at current market prices
Government consumption at current market prices
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
= Gross domestic investment (GDI)
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Stocks (Inventories including Errors and Omissions)
GNI at current market prices
Gross Domestic Capital Formation
Gross National Savings
Gross Domestic Savings
Net capital transfer from abroad
Per capita GDP in Taka
Per capita GDP in Taka
Money Supply and Demand
Money Supply (M1) in Billion Taka
Currency in circulation with the public
Demand Deposit
Quasi Money
Money Supply
Foreign Assets
31
Exogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenbous
Derived
Endogenous
Derived
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Derived
Derived
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous

Serial
No.
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
84
85
86
87
Description
Variable
DomCredit
Credit-GOV
Credit-PVT
Credit-Others
Other Items
REV&G(BITK)
REV
CurREV
Tax
NonTax
CapREC
Grants
EXP&NL
EXP
CurEXP
CapEXP
CAPBAL
REVBAL
BUDBAL
DOMBOR
FRBR
CASH
C/AC (ML$)
Bal-G&S
XGS
MGS
Income, net
Transfer
Official
Private
Remittances
CapA/C
Fin A/C
FDI
Portfolio
Other Inv
Errors
BOP BAL
Reserves
GDPMP(bl$)
ExtDT(ML$)
LT Debt
ST Debt
IMF Credit
ExtDT/GNI
LTDT/Debt
STDT/Debt
DTSER/XGS
Domestic Credtit = Credit-GOV+Credit-PVT+Credit-Others

Credit to government
Credit to private sector
Credit to others
Other items in money demana
Government Finance Block
Revenue and grants (in billion Taka)=REV + grants
Revenue Receipts = CURREV + CapREC
Current Revenue receipts = Tax + Nontax
Tax receipts
Non-Tax rexeipts
Capital receipts
Grants
Government expenditure and net lending
Government expenditure = CurEXP + CapEXP
Government current expenditure
Government capital expenditure
Capital Balance=CapREC-CapEXP
Revenue Balance= CurREV-CurEXP
Budget Balance = CAPBAL + REVBAL
Domestic Borrowing
Foreign Borrowing
Use of cash balances
Current Account in BOP in Million US$ =BALG&S +Income+
Transfer,Net
Balance in goods and services = XGS-MGS
Exports of goods and servces
Imports of goods and services
Net Income from abroad
Net transfers from abroad = Official + Private
Official transfers
Private transfers
Remittances from abroad
Capital Account in BOP
Financial Account
Foreign direct investment
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Errors and omissions in BOP
BOP Balance = Cur A/C + Cap A/C
Foreign exchange reserves
GDP at market prices (Billion US$)
External debt in million US$ = LT DEBT + ST DEBT
Long Term Debt
Short Term Debt
Credits from IMF
External Debt to Gross National Income Ratio
Long term debt to total dent ratio
Long term debt to total dent ratio
Debt services to exports of goods and services
32
Type
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Identity
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Identity
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Identity
Derived
Derived
Identity
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Derived
Derived
Derived
Derived

Serial
No.
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
Description
Variable
Debt Services
Amortization
Int on LTD
Int on STD
Interest (%)
Maturity(yr)
Grace
Grant (%)
Amort/Debt
Interest TL (%)
Int long term
Int short term
XGS($Bln)
MGS($Bln)
TTrans($Bln)
Off Trans
($BLn)
Debt services
Repayment of principal, Million US$
Interest payments for long tern debt
Interest payment on Short term debt
Rate of interest (in percentage}
Average Maturing in years
Grace period in years
Grant percentage in total loan
Ratio of amortization to total debt
Rate of interest on total loan
Rate of interest on long term loan
Rate of interest on short term loan
Exports of goods and services (US$ billion)
Imports of goods and services (US$ billion)
Total Transfer in US$
Official transfer in US$ billion
33
Type
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Derived
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous
Endogenous

34

Annex-2
Base Data for FY2004 to FY2013,
Basic Statistical Characteristics and
Projections for FY2014 to FY2035
35

36

Table-2.1: Base Data for FY2004 to FY2013 and Projections for FY2014 to FY2035
Items
POP (Mln)
GDPCstMP
Agr
Mining
Manuf
Utility
2003-04
136.7
2519.7
558.1
26.8
390.7
38.5
2004-05
138.6
2669.8
570.4
29.1
422.7
41.9
2005-06
140.6
2846.7
598.5
31.8
468.2
45.1
2006-07
142.6
3029.7
625.8
34.4
513.7
46.1
2007-08
144.7
3217.3
645.9
37.5
550.8
49.2
2008-09
146.7
3402.0
672.4
41.2
587.5
52.1
2009-10
148.6
3608.6
707.7
44.8
625.7
55.9
2010-11
150.6
3850.7
744.0
47.0
684.8
59.6
2011-12
152.5
4090.5
767.1
50.6
749.0
66.8
2012-13
154.6
4337.0
783.7
56.3
818.9
72.5
Mean
145.6
3357.2
667.4
39.9
581.2
52.8
Median
145.7
3309.6
659.2
39.3
569.2
50.7
CV(%)
4.1
18.2
12.2
24.3
24.1
20.8
SKEW
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.6
KURT
-1.2
-1.1
-1.4
-1.0
-0.8
-0.5
(of Trend)
4.9
7.6
6.2
3.0
5.7
3.4
(of Trend)
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
4.1
4.0
3.8
-1.8
0.9
-0.6
=wrtY
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.5
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
1.4
6.0
3.8
8.2
8.2
7.0
TRGR
1.4
6.2
4.1
8.5
8.3
6.9
AveGR
1.4
6.2
3.9
8.5
8.4
7.5
STDGR
0.1
0.3
1.1
1.7
1.5
2.5
CVGR(%)
4.5
4.8
29.6
19.4
17.7
33.9
ProjMethod
Average
Identity
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
PGR
1.4
Variable
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
P2013-14
156.8
4628.9
819.7
61.0
887.3
77.5
P2014-15
158.9
4941.8
857.4
66.2
961.3
82.8
P2015-16
161.1
5277.1
896.9
71.8
1041.5
88.5
P2016-17
163.3
5636.6
938.1
77.8
1128.4
94.6
P2017-18
165.6
6022.2
981.2
84.4
1222.5
101.2
P2018-19
167.9
6435.8
1026.3
91.6
1324.5
108.1
P2019-20
170.2
6879.5
1073.5
99.3
1435.0
115.6
P2020-21
172.5
7355.7
1122.9
107.7
1554.8
123.5
P2021-22
174.9
7866.8
1174.5
116.8
1684.5
132.0
P2022-23
177.3
8384.1
1222.3
126.5
1820.4
140.5
P2023-24
179.7
8938.1
1272.0
137.0
1967.4
149.5
P2024-25
182.2
9531.7
1323.8
148.4
2126.1
159.1
P2025-26
184.7
10167.7
1377.6
160.8
2297.7
169.3
P2026-27
187.3
10849.3
1433.6
174.1
2483.1
180.2
P2027-28
189.8
11580.0
1492.0
188.6
2683.5
191.8
P2028-29
192.5
12363.5
1552.6
204.3
2900.1
204.1
P2029-30
195.1
13203.8
1615.8
221.3
3134.2
217.2
P2030-31
197.8
14105.2
1681.5
239.7
3387.1
231.1
P2031-32
200.5
15072.3
1749.9
259.6
3660.4
245.9
P2032-33
203.3
16110.1
1821.1
281.2
3955.9
261.7
P2033-34
206.1
17224.1
1895.2
304.6
4275.1
278.5
P2034-35
208.9
18420.0
1972.2
329.9
4620.1
296.4
37

Items
Const
Trade
Trans
Finance
PubAdm
Others
2003-04
213.5
337.7
236.8
39.8
63.5
512.1
2004-05
231.2
361.6
255.5
43.4
68.6
536.6
2005-06
250.4
386.0
275.9
47.1
74.2
563.5
2006-07
268.0
417.0
298.1
51.4
80.4
593.0
2007-08
283.2
445.4
323.6
56.0
85.4
623.0
2008-09
299.3
473.1
349.5
61.0
91.4
655.4
2009-10
317.3
500.9
376.4
68.1
99.1
691.5
2010-11
337.9
532.5
397.8
74.7
108.6
730.5
2011-12
363.5
562.5
424.1
82.9
114.9
769.3
2012-13
392.8
620.2
452.6
90.4
120.8
781.9
Mean
295.7
463.7
339.0
61.5
90.7
645.7
Median
291.3
459.2
336.5
58.5
88.4
639.2
CV(%)
19.6
19.7
21.6
27.9
21.8
14.9
SKEW
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
KURT
-0.8
-0.8
-1.3
-1.0
-1.3
-1.4
(of Trend)
5.1
5.6
5.2
3.3
3.9
6.0
(of Trend)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
1.3
1.7
0.9
-2.1
-0.4
3.1
=wrtY
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.4
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
6.8
6.8
7.2
9.1
7.1
4.7
TRGR
6.7
6.8
7.5
9.6
7.5
5.1
AveGR
7.1
7.0
7.3
9.3
7.4
4.8
STDGR
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.2
CVGR(%)
15.5
19.2
13.0
13.9
18.6
24.1
ProjMethod
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
TRGR
PGR
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
P2013-14
423.1
665.1
491.2
99.9
129.9
821.5
P2014-15
455.7
713.4
533.1
110.5
139.7
863.0
P2015-16
490.8
765.1
578.6
122.3
150.2
906.6
P2016-17
528.7
820.6
627.9
135.3
161.6
952.5
P2017-18
569.4
880.1
681.5
149.6
173.7
1000.7
P2018-19
613.3
944.0
739.7
165.5
186.9
1051.3
P2019-20
660.6
1012.4
802.8
183.0
200.9
1104.4
P2020-21
711.5
1085.9
871.3
202.5
216.1
1160.3
P2021-22
766.4
1164.6
945.6
224.0
232.4
1219.0
P2022-23
823.6
1248.7
1022.3
246.6
248.6
1272.9
P2023-24
885.1
1338.8
1105.3
271.6
265.9
1329.3
P2024-25
951.3
1435.5
1194.9
299.1
284.4
1388.1
P2025-26
1022.3
1539.1
1291.9
329.4
304.1
1449.6
P2026-27
1098.6
1650.2
1396.7
362.8
325.3
1513.8
P2027-28
1180.7
1769.3
1510.0
399.5
347.9
1580.8
P2028-29
1268.9
1897.0
1632.5
440.0
372.1
1650.8
P2029-30
1363.7
2033.9
1764.9
484.6
398.0
1723.8
P2030-31
1465.5
2180.7
1908.1
533.7
425.7
1800.2
P2031-32
1574.9
2338.2
2062.9
587.7
455.3
1879.9
P2032-33
1692.6
2506.9
2230.2
647.2
487.0
1963.1
P2033-34
1819.0
2687.9
2411.1
712.8
520.9
2050.0
P2034-35
1954.8
2881.9
2606.7
785.0
557.1
2140.7
38

Items
IndTax
NFI
GNI
GDPCstMP CPI(95/96)
GDPDF
2003-04
102.2
132.8
2652.5
2519.7
143.9
132.1
2004-05
108.8
136.3
2806.1
2669.8
153.2
138.9
2005-06
106.0
186.3
3033.0
2846.7
164.2
146.0
2006-07
101.8
226.2
3255.9
3029.7
176.1
155.9
2007-08
117.3
285.2
3502.5
3217.3
193.5
169.7
2008-09
119.0
309.3
3711.3
3402.0
206.4
180.7
2009-10
121.2
335.7
3944.3
3608.6
221.5
192.4
2010-11
133.3
350.5
4201.2
3850.7
239.9
206.9
2011-12
139.8
397.9
4488.4
4090.5
260.7
224.5
2012-13
147.0
452.4
4789.4
4337.0
269.1
239.4
Mean
119.6
281.3
3638.5
3357.2
203
178.7
Median
118.2
297.3
3606.9
3309.6
200
175.2
CV(%)
13.3
38.7
19.8
18.2
22
20.6
SKEW
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
KURT
-0.9
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.3
-1.1
(of Trend)
4.4
4.4
7.6
7.6
5.0
4.6
(of Trend)
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
R (of Trend
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.4
1.0
(DbLog)
2.0
-3.8
3.7
4.0
0.4
0.6
=wrtY
0.3
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.4
1.0
ExpGR
4.0
13.6
6.6
6.0
7.0
6.6
TRGR
4.2
14.9
6.8
6.2
7.5
7.0
AveGR
5.7
13.7
6.7
6.2
7.1
6.6
STDGR
7.2
11.3
0.8
0.3
1.8
1.5
CVGR(%)
126.3
82.6
11.3
4.8
25
22.2
ProjMethod
AdjGR
AdjGR
Identity
Identity
TRGR
TRGR
PGR
3.9
10.9
Variable
Variable
7.5
7.0
P2013-14
152.7
501.6
5130.5
4628.9
289.5
256.1
P2014-15
158.6
556.1
5497.8
4941.8
311.3
274.0
P2015-16
164.7
616.5
5893.6
5277.1
384.8
293.2
P2016-17
171.1
683.5
6320.1
5636.6
360.1
313.7
P2017-18
177.8
757.8
6780.0
6022.2
387.4
335.6
P2018-19
184.6
840.1
7275.9
6435.8
416.4
359.0
P2019-20
191.8
931.4
7810.9
6879.5
447.9
384.1
P2020-21
199.2
1032.6
8388.3
7355.7
487.1
411.0
P2021-22
206.9
1144.8
9011.6
7866.8
518.1
439.7
P2022-23
211.5
1240.1
9624.2
8384.1
555
470.3
P2023-24
216.2
1343.3
10281.4
8938.1
594
502.9
P2024-25
221.0
1455.1
10986.8
9531.7
637
537.9
P2025-26
225.9
1576.2
11743.9
10167.7
682
575.3
P2026-27
230.9
1707.4
12556.7
10849.3
730
615.3
P2027-28
236.0
1849.5
13429.5
11580.0
782
658.1
P2028-29
241.2
2003.4
14366.9
12363.5
838
703.8
P2029-30
246.5
2170.1
15373.9
13203.8
898
752.7
P2030-31
252.0
2350.7
16455.9
14105.2
961
805.0
P2031-32
257.6
2546.4
17618.6
15072.3
1030
861.0
P2032-33
263.3
2758.3
18868.4
16110.1
1103
920.9
P2033-34
269.1
2987.8
20211.9
17224.1
1181
984.9
P2034-35
275.0
3236.5
21656.4
18420.0
1265
1053.3
39

Items
EdExRTK/$ AvExRTK/$ GDPCurMP
PVTC
GOVC
GFCF
2003-04
60.4
58.9
3329.7
2495.2
184.1
799.9
2004-05
63.8
61.4
3707.1
2759.8
205.3
909.2
2005-06
69.7
67.1
4157.3
3085.2
230.3
1024.8
2006-07
68.8
69.0
4724.7
3502.1
261.1
1155.9
2007-08
68.5
68.6
5458.2
4061.4
288.3
1321.3
2008-09
69.1
68.8
6148.0
4589.4
323.5
1498.4
2009-10
69.5
69.2
6943.2
5175.0
372.7
1695.1
2010-11
74.2
71.2
7967.1
5969.4
460.9
2003.8
2011-12
81.8
79.1
9181.5
6900.0
512.9
2436.9
2012-13
77.8
79.9
10380.0
7792.0
583.0
2779.1
Mean
70.3
69.3
6199.7
4632.9
342.2
1562.4
Median
69.3
68.9
5803.1
4325.4
305.9
1409.9
CV(%)
8.9
9.5
38.5
38.9
40.0
42.6
SKEW
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
KURT
0.3
0.1
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
(of Trend)
4.0
4.0
7.6
7.3
4.7
6.1
(of Trend)
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
2.5
2.3
0.0
-0.4
-3.0
-2.1
=wrtY
0.2
0.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
R (DbLog)
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
2.8
3.4
12.6
12.7
12.8
13.8
TRGR
2.7
3.0
13.6
13.7
13.9
14.8
AveGR
3.3
3.8
13.2
13.1
13.8
14.8
STDGR
5.2
4.2
1.6
2.2
3.8
2.9
CVGR(%)
156.4
109.9
12.1
16.7
27.3
19.5
ProjMethod
RealEx
RealEx
Derived
Elasticity
Elasticity
Elasticity
PGR
2.5
2.5
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
79.7
81.9
11856.1
8908.2
667.2
3205.1
P2014-15
81.7
83.9
13541.9
10184.1
763.6
3696.3
P2015-16
83.7
86.0
15471.3
11645.8
874.2
4264.0
P2016-17
85.8
88.2
17680.2
13320.7
1000.9
4920.2
P2017-18
87.9
90.4
20209.7
15240.4
1146.4
5679.0
P2018-19
90.1
92.6
23106.8
17441.2
1313.4
6556.5
P2019-20
92.4
94.9
26426.0
19964.9
1505.0
7571.7
P2020-21
94.7
97.3
30229.6
22859.6
1725.1
8746.5
P2021-22
97.0
99.7
34589.3
26180.6
1977.9
10106.2
P2022-23
98.7
102.0
39426.4
29772.4
2245.0
11578.4
P2023-24
100.4
104.4
44953.6
33857.1
2548.3
13265.0
P2024-25
102.1
106.8
51271.2
38502.1
2892.5
15197.3
P2025-26
103.9
109.3
58494.1
43784.4
3283.3
17411.1
P2026-27
105.7
111.9
66754.3
49791.4
3726.8
19947.4
P2027-28
107.5
114.5
76203.1
56622.5
4230.2
22853.2
P2028-29
109.4
117.2
87014.6
64390.9
4801.6
26182.3
P2029-30
111.3
119.9
99388.2
73225.0
5450.2
29996.3
P2030-31
113.2
122.7
113553.5
83271.1
6186.5
34365.9
P2031-32
115.2
125.6
129773.7
94695.5
7022.2
39372.0
P2032-33
117.2
128.5
148351.5
107687.3
7970.7
45107.4
P2033-34
119.2
131.5
169634.9
122461.4
9047.4
51678.2
P2034-35
121.2
134.6
194023.6
139262.5
10269.6
59206.2
40

Items
XGS
MGS
Stocks
NFI
GNICuMP
GDCF
2003-04
514.9
693.0
28.6
175.5
3505.2
799.9
2004-05
614.7
854.3
72.4
189.3
3896.4
909.2
2005-06
788.8
1049.5
77.7
272.1
4429.4
1024.8
2006-07
934.4
1261.6
132.8
352.8
5077.5
1155.9
2007-08
1110.2
1569.3
246.3
483.9
5942.1
1321.3
2008-09
1194.4
1632.4
174.7
559.0
6707.0
1498.4
2009-10
1278.0
1736.9
159.4
646.0
7589.3
1695.1
2010-11
1824.5
2518.4
226.9
725.1
8692.2
2003.8
2011-12
2127.5
2949.2
153.4
893.0
10074.5
2436.9
2012-13
2513.3
3488.8
204.2
1037.9
11420.7
2779.1
Mean
1290.1
1775.4
147.6
533.5
6733.4
1562.4
Median
1152.3
1600.9
156.4
521.5
6324.5
1409.9
CV(%)
51.4
52.2
47.9
55.3
39.9
42.6
SKEW
0.8
0.8
-0.3
0.4
0.5
0.8
KURT
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-0.5
(of Trend)
5.6
5.9
3.4
4.4
7.6
6.1
(of Trend)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
-4.5
-4.4
-6.7
-7.7
-0.3
-2.1
=wrtY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.0
1.1
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
17.6
18.0
21.8
19.7
13.1
13.8
TRGR
18.6
18.9
18.9
22.7
14.2
14.8
AveGR
19.8
19.7
31.3
20.7
13.7
14.8
STDGR
10.2
11.2
58.7
12.6
2.0
2.9
CVGR(%)
51.4
57.2
187.8
60.6
14.4
19.5
ProjMethod
Elasticity
Elasticity
Residual
AdjGR
Identity
Elasticity
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
16.6
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
2989.9
4160.8
246.4
1210.3
13066.4
3205.1
P2014-15
3556.8
4962.0
303.0
1411.4
14953.2
3696.3
P2015-16
4232.6
5919.5
374.3
1645.8
17117.1
4264.0
P2016-17
5038.4
7064.1
464.0
1919.2
19599.4
4920.2
P2017-18
5999.6
8432.8
577.0
2237.9
22447.6
5679.0
P2018-19
7146.5
10070.0
719.2
2609.7
25716.5
6556.5
P2019-20
8515.5
12029.1
897.9
3043.1
29469.1
7571.7
P2020-21
10149.9
14374.0
1122.5
3548.6
33778.2
8746.5
P2021-22
12101.9
17181.5
1404.3
4138.0
38727.3
10106.2
P2022-23
14092.2
20009.8
1748.2
4693.9
44120.3
11578.4
P2023-24
16409.8
23303.7
2177.1
5324.5
50278.2
13265.0
P2024-25
19108.7
27139.8
2710.4
6039.8
57311.1
15197.3
P2025-26
22251.3
31607.3
3371.3
6851.2
65345.4
17411.1
P2026-27
25910.9
36810.3
4188.1
7771.6
74525.9
19947.4
P2027-28
30172.3
42869.8
5194.7
8815.7
85018.8
22853.2
P2028-29
35134.5
49926.7
6432.0
10000.0
97014.6
26182.3
P2029-30
40912.8
58145.3
7949.2
11343.4
110731.6
29996.3
P2030-31
47641.5
67716.8
9805.3
12867.3
126420.7
34365.9
P2031-32
55476.8
78863.9
12071.1
14595.9
144369.5
39372.0
P2032-33
64600.7
91846.0
14831.4
16556.7
164908.2
45107.4
P2033-34
75225.2
106965.0
18187.7
18781.0
188415.9
51678.2
P2034-35
87597.0
124572.9
22261.2
21304.0
215327.6
59206.2
41

Items
GNS
GDS
NFI
NCT
PCGDP(TK PCGNI(TK)
2003-04
847.1
650.4
175.5
21.2
24357.7
25641.6
2004-05
958.1
742.0
189.3
26.8
26746.8
28112.6
2005-06
1150.4
841.8
272.1
36.5
29568.1
31503.4
2006-07
1354.2
961.5
352.8
39.9
33132.5
35606.6
2007-08
1649.1
1108.5
483.9
56.7
37720.8
41064.9
2008-09
1818.1
1235.0
559.0
24.1
41908.4
45719.0
2009-10
2084.0
1395.5
646.0
42.5
46724.3
51071.8
2010-11
2292.9
1536.8
725.1
31.0
52902.1
57717.1
2011-12
2679.5
1768.5
893.0
17.9
60199.4
66054.5
2012-13
3064.5
2008.0
1037.9
18.6
67146.4
73858.7
Mean
1789.8
1224.8
533.5
31.5
42040.7
45635.0
Median
1733.6
1171.8
521.5
28.9
39814.6
43391.9
CV(%)
41.5
36.8
55.3
39.4
34.6
35.9
SKEW
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.5
KURT
-0.9
-0.8
-0.9
0.3
-0.9
-0.9
(of Trend)
6.2
6.0
4.4
3.7
9.6
9.7
(of Trend)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
-0.3
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
-2.3
-1.3
-7.7
5.8
2.9
2.6
=wrtY
1.1
1.0
1.6
-0.3
0.9
0.9
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
-0.3
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
14.3
12.5
19.7
-1.5
11.3
11.8
TRGR
15.4
13.2
22.7
-3.3
12.1
12.7
AveGR
15.2
13.6
20.7
6.6
11.7
12.1
STDGR
3.9
1.8
12.6
41.0
1.6
1.9
CVGR(%)
25.6
13.2
60.6
623.2
13.7
16.1
ProjMethod
Identity
Elasticity
AdjGR
Elasticity
Derived
Derived
PGR
Variable
Variable
16.6
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
3512.7
2284.5
1210.3
17.9
75632.8
83353.7
P2014-15
4027.5
2599.0
1411.4
17.2
85213.7
94094.8
P2015-16
4619.8
2957.6
1645.8
16.5
96032.9
106248.6
P2016-17
5301.4
3366.4
1919.2
15.8
108253.5
120004.2
P2017-18
6085.9
3832.8
2237.9
15.2
122060.3
135576.8
P2018-19
6989.0
4364.8
2609.7
14.6
137663.0
153210.5
P2019-20
8029.0
4971.9
3043.1
14.0
155299.5
173183.2
P2020-21
9226.8
5664.8
3548.6
13.5
175239.6
195810.6
P2021-22
10606.8
6455.8
4138.0
12.9
197789.5
221451.7
P2022-23
12025.5
7319.2
4693.9
12.4
222385.6
248861.9
P2023-24
13634.5
8298.0
5324.5
11.9
250116.7
279741.8
P2024-25
15459.1
9407.8
6039.8
11.5
281390.8
314539.1
P2025-26
17528.2
10665.9
6851.2
11.0
316669.9
353760.4
P2026-27
19874.5
12092.3
7771.6
10.6
356477.3
397978.9
P2027-28
22535.3
13709.5
8815.7
10.2
401406.0
447843.3
P2028-29
25552.7
15542.9
10000.0
9.8
452127.8
504087.8
P2029-30
28974.3
17621.5
11343.4
9.4
509404.2
567543.6
P2030-31
32854.4
19978.1
12867.3
9.0
574098.1
639151.9
P2031-32
37254.5
22649.9
14595.9
8.7
647188.2
719978.6
P2032-33
42244.0
25679.0
16556.7
8.3
729783.9
811231.2
P2033-34
47902.1
29113.2
18781.0
8.0
823143.9
914277.5
P2034-35
54318.3
33006.6
21304.0
7.7
928695.7
1030667.5
42

Items
M1(BlnTK)
Currency
DemDep
QuasiMony
MoneySup
FornAssets
2003-04
304.5
158.1
146.4
992.7
1297.2
163.3
2004-05
354.0
185.1
168.9
1160.4
1514.4
182.3
2005-06
426.5
228.6
197.9
1380.2
1806.7
215.3
2006-07
496.8
266.4
230.4
1618.2
2115.0
324.0
2007-08
593.1
326.9
266.2
1894.8
2487.9
373.2
2008-09
664.3
360.5
303.8
2300.7
2965.0
474.6
2009-10
879.9
461.6
418.3
2750.4
3630.3
670.7
2010-11
1031.1
548.0
483.1
3374.2
4405.2
705.7
2011-12
1097.2
584.2
513.0
4073.9
5171.1
788.2
2012-13
1286.4
686.8
599.5
4812.9
6099.2
969.1
Mean
713.4
380.6
332.8
2435.8
3149.2
486.6
Median
628.7
343.7
285.0
2097.8
2726.5
423.9
CV(%)
47.8
47.7
47.9
53.2
51.9
58.0
SKEW
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.4
KURT
-1.2
-1.1
-1.3
-0.6
-0.7
-1.2
(of Trend)
5.1
4.4
4.3
6.2
6.4
4.2
(of Trend)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
-4.7
-5.4
-5.3
-4.3
-3.9
-8.2
=wrtY
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.6
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
16.0
16.3
15.7
17.5
17.2
19.8
TRGR
17.9
18.1
17.7
19.4
19.1
23.4
AveGR
17.2
17.5
16.9
18.6
18.3
22.0
STDGR
6.7
6.3
8.0
2.6
2.4
14.2
CVGR(%)
39.0
36.3
47.1
13.9
13.4
64.5
ProjMethod
Identity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Identity
Elasticity
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
1521.1
813.3
707.8
5761.2
7282.3
1194.7
P2014-15
1798.7
963.0
835.6
6896.3
8695.0
1472.8
P2015-16
2127.6
1140.7
986.9
8257.8
10385.4
1816.5
P2016-17
2517.4
1351.6
1165.9
9891.5
12409.0
2241.1
P2017-18
2979.7
1601.9
1377.7
11852.4
14832.1
2766.1
P2018-19
3527.9
1899.3
1628.6
14206.8
17734.7
3415.3
P2019-20
4178.3
2252.5
1925.8
17034.5
21212.8
4218.6
P2020-21
4950.2
2672.3
2277.8
20431.9
25382.0
5212.8
P2021-22
5866.4
3171.3
2695.1
24515.0
30381.4
6443.7
P2022-23
6833.4
3705.6
3127.8
29175.3
36008.7
7722.1
P2023-24
7959.9
4329.9
3630.1
34721.5
42681.4
9254.1
P2024-25
9272.2
5059.3
4212.9
41322.1
50594.3
11090.0
P2025-26
10801.0
5911.6
4889.4
49177.4
59978.4
13290.2
P2026-27
12582.0
6907.5
5674.5
58526.1
71108.0
15926.9
P2027-28
14656.8
8071.2
6585.6
69651.9
84308.7
19086.6
P2028-29
17073.9
9430.9
7643.0
82892.8
99966.7
22873.3
P2029-30
19889.9
11019.7
8870.2
98650.7
118540.6
27411.1
P2030-31
23170.6
12876.2
10294.4
117404.3
140574.9
32849.3
P2031-32
26992.7
15045.4
11947.4
139722.9
166715.6
39366.3
P2032-33
31445.7
17580.0
13865.7
166284.3
197730.0
47176.3
P2033-34
36633.7
20541.6
16092.1
197895.0
234528.7
56535.7
P2034-35
42678.1
24002.2
18675.9
235515.0
278193.0
67751.9
43

Items
DomCredit Credit-GOV Credit -PVT CreditOther
OtherItems REV(BlTK)
2003-04
1267.9
219.5
958.7
89.7
-134.0
366.0
2004-05
1488.3
255.8
1120.1
112.4
-156.2
404.0
2005-06
1790.8
316.2
1323.2
151.4
-199.4
467.0
2006-07
2056.7
360.4
1521.8
174.5
-265.7
507.0
2007-08
2486.7
469.1
1901.4
116.3
-372.0
645.0
2008-09
2885.5
581.8
2179.3
124.4
-395.1
688.0
2009-10
3402.1
543.9
2707.6
150.6
-442.5
823.0
2010-11
4335.3
734.4
3407.1
193.8
-635.8
978.0
2011-12
5183.3
920.3
4079.0
184.0
-800.4
1209.0
2012-13
6114.8
1079.1
4834.7
201.0
-984.7
1366.1
Mean
3101.1
548.0
2403.3
149.8
-438.6
745.3
Median
2686.1
506.5
2040.4
151.0
-383.6
666.5
CV(%)
52.9
52.5
55.1
25.5
-65.1
46.2
SKEW
0.8
0.7
0.8
-0.1
-0.9
0.8
KURT
-0.5
-0.4
-0.6
-1.4
-0.2
-0.6
(of Trend)
6.4
4.7
6.1
4.4
4.0
5.2
(of Trend)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
-4.0
-5.7
-4.8
0.3
-9.2
-3.7
=wrtY
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.5
1.7
1.2
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
17.5
17.7
18.0
9.0
22.2
14.6
TRGR
19.2
19.2
20.1
7.3
25.0
16.2
AveGR
18.8
19.3
19.4
12.2
26.5
15.5
STDGR
3.6
11.4
4.2
19.7
12.3
6.7
CVGR(%)
19.4
59.2
21.8
161.8
46.4
43.0
ProjMethod
Identity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Residual
Identity
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
7325.0
1289.7
5818.9
216.5
-1237.4
1662.3
P2014-15
8777.6
1541.3
7003.1
233.1
-1555.4
1944.7
P2015-16
10525.2
1842.7
8431.4
251.1
-1956.2
2275.7
P2016-17
12628.7
2203.7
10154.5
270.5
-2460.8
2664.1
P2017-18
15161.7
2636.3
12234.0
291.4
-3095.7
3119.7
P2018-19
18213.3
3154.9
14744.3
314.0
-3894.0
3654.6
P2019-20
21891.2
3776.8
17775.9
338.5
-4897.0
4282.5
P2020-21
26325.8
4522.8
21438.2
364.8
-6156.6
5019.9
P2021-22
31675.0
5417.9
25863.8
393.3
-7737.3
5886.3
P2022-23
37556.4
6313.9
30837.5
405.0
-9269.8
6871.3
P2023-24
44542.8
7358.1
36767.7
417.0
-11115.4
8022.0
P2024-25
52842.6
8575.0
43838.2
429.4
-13338.3
9368.8
P2025-26
62703.7
9993.1
52268.5
442.1
-16015.4
10945.8
P2026-27
74420.8
11645.7
62319.9
455.2
-19239.7
12792.7
P2027-28
88344.6
13571.6
74304.3
468.7
-23122.6
14956.4
P2028-29
104892.0
15816.0
88593.3
482.6
-27798.5
17492.2
P2029-30
124558.7
18431.6
105630.1
497.0
-33429.2
20464.8
P2030-31
147934.7
21479.8
125943.2
511.7
-40209.1
23950.7
P2031-32
175721.5
25032.0
150162.5
526.9
-48372.2
28039.7
P2032-33
208753.6
29171.7
179039.4
542.6
-58200.0
32837.5
P2033-34
248024.0
33996.0
213469.3
558.7
-70031.0
38468.7
P2034-35
294713.7
39618.2
254520.3
575.3
-84272.6
45080.0
44

Items
REV
CurREV
Tax
Nontax
CapREC
Grants
2003-04
351.0
351.0
283.0
68.0
0.0
15.0
2004-05
392.0
392.0
319.5
72.5
0.0
12.0
2005-06
446.0
446.0
361.8
84.2
0.0
21.0
2006-07
496.0
496.0
392.5
103.5
0.0
11.0
2007-08
620.0
620.0
480.1
139.9
0.0
25.0
2008-09
667.0
667.0
555.3
111.7
0.0
21.0
2009-10
791.0
791.0
624.8
166.2
0.0
32.0
2010-11
954.0
954.0
795.5
158.5
0.0
24.0
2011-12
1173.0
1173.0
962.9
210.2
0.0
36.0
2012-13
1354.0
1354.0
1112.3
241.7
0.0
66.0
Mean
724.4
724.4
588.8
135.6
0.0
26.3
Median
643.5
643.5
517.7
125.8
0.0
22.5
CV(%)
47.1
47.1
48.3
43.3
161.0
61.2
SKEW
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.0
1.8
KURT
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-1.2
4.1
(of Trend)
5.2
5.2
5.0
3.6
#NUM!
1.9
(of Trend)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
#NUM!
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
#NUM!
0.8
(DbLog)
-3.8
-3.8
-4.2
-4.7
#NUM!
-7.1
=wrtY
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
#NUM!
1.2
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
#NUM!
0.8
ExpGR
15.0
15.0
15.2
14.1
#DIV/0!
16.5
TRGR
16.4
16.4
16.7
15.1
#NUM!
16.2
AveGR
16.0
16.0
16.2
16.3
#DIV/0!
29.7
STDGR
5.7
5.7
5.6
20.2
#DIV/0!
56.3
CVGR(%)
35.5
35.4
34.7
123.8
#DIV/0!
189.6
ProjMethod
Identity
Identity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Fixed
AdjGR
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Nil
10.5
P2013-14
1584.4
1583.4
1303.9
279.5
1.0
77.9
P2014-15
1852.7
1851.7
1528.4
323.3
1.0
92.0
P2015-16
2167.1
2166.1
1792.1
374.0
1.0
108.6
P2016-17
2535.8
2534.8
2102.0
432.8
1.0
128.3
P2017-18
2968.1
2967.1
2466.2
500.9
1.0
151.6
P2018-19
3475.3
3474.3
2894.3
580.0
1.0
179.2
P2019-20
4070.5
4069.5
3397.8
671.7
1.0
211.9
P2020-21
4769.2
4768.2
3990.1
778.1
1.0
250.7
P2021-22
5589.7
5588.7
4687.0
901.7
1.0
296.6
P2022-23
6523.8
6521.3
5480.8
1040.5
2.5
347.5
P2023-24
7614.9
7612.4
6411.3
1201.1
2.5
407.1
P2024-25
8891.9
8889.4
7502.4
1386.9
2.5
477.0
P2025-26
10386.9
10384.4
8782.4
1602.0
2.5
558.8
P2026-27
12137.9
12135.4
10284.4
1851.1
2.5
654.7
P2027-28
14189.3
14186.8
12047.3
2139.5
2.5
767.1
P2028-29
16593.5
16591.0
14117.2
2473.7
2.5
898.7
P2029-30
19411.9
19409.4
16548.4
2861.0
2.5
1052.9
P2030-31
22717.1
22714.6
19404.7
3309.9
2.5
1233.6
P2031-32
26594.4
26591.9
22761.5
3830.4
2.5
1445.3
P2032-33
31144.2
31141.7
26707.6
4434.0
2.5
1693.4
P2033-34
36484.8
36482.3
31347.9
5134.4
2.5
1984.0
P2034-35
42755.5
42753.0
36806.0
5947.0
2.5
2324.4
45

Items
EXP&NL
EXP
CurEXP
CapEXP
CAPBAL
REVBAL
2003-04
444.0
444.0
283.9
160.1
-160.1
82.1
2004-05
518.0
518.0
333.2
184.8
-184.8
70.8
2005-06
581.0
581.0
366.2
214.8
-214.8
100.8
2006-07
641.0
641.0
454.1
186.9
-186.9
52.9
2007-08
907.0
907.0
574.3
332.8
-332.8
70.8
2008-09
893.0
893.0
626.8
266.2
-266.2
61.2
2009-10
1015.0
1015.0
731.6
283.4
-283.4
91.4
2010-11
1283.0
1283.0
828.6
454.4
-454.4
149.4
2011-12
1499.0
1499.0
1009.9
489.2
-489.1
199.2
2012-13
1671.7
1743.0
1174.5
568.5
-496.2
146.5
Mean
945.3
952.4
638.3
314.1
-306.9
102.5
Median
900.0
900.0
600.5
274.8
-274.8
86.8
CV(%)
44.8
46.0
46.7
45.7
-42.5
46.2
SKEW
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
-0.5
1.1
KURT
-0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.9
-1.4
0.3
(of Trend)
5.5
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.5
3.7
(of Trend)
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.7
(DbLog)
-3.4
-3.5
-4.4
-3.8
-3.3
-2.1
=wrtY
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.8
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.7
ExpGR
14.7
15.2
15.8
14.1
12.6
6.4
TRGR
16.1
16.4
17.2
15.0
14.1
10.1
AveGR
15.7
16.1
16.7
17.2
15.8
13.6
STDGR
11.3
11.3
5.9
30.2
30.6
36.5
CVGR(%)
72.5
69.8
35.2
175.0
193.9
269.3
ProjMethod
Identity
Identity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Derived
Derived
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
2038.3
2038.3
1381.3
656.9
-655.9
203.0
P2014-15
2383.7
2383.7
1624.6
759.1
-758.1
228.1
P2015-16
2788.7
2788.7
1911.2
877.5
-876.5
255.9
P2016-17
3263.7
3263.7
2249.2
1014.5
-1013.5
286.6
P2017-18
3821.0
3821.0
2647.6
1173.3
-1172.3
320.5
P2018-19
4475.0
4475.0
3117.7
1357.4
-1356.4
357.6
P2019-20
5243.0
5243.0
3672.3
1570.7
-1569.7
398.2
P2020-21
6144.9
6144.9
4326.9
1818.0
-1817.0
442.4
P2021-22
7204.5
7204.5
5099.6
2104.9
-2103.9
490.1
P2022-23
8267.1
8267.1
5840.2
2426.9
-2424.4
683.6
P2023-24
9489.5
9489.5
6690.3
2799.2
-2796.7
924.5
P2024-25
10896.2
10896.2
7666.7
3229.6
-3227.1
1225.2
P2025-26
12515.5
12515.5
8788.2
3727.4
-3724.9
1598.8
P2026-27
14380.0
14380.0
10076.8
4303.2
-4300.7
2061.1
P2027-28
16527.6
16527.6
11557.9
4969.6
-4967.1
2631.4
P2028-29
19001.7
19001.7
13260.7
5741.0
-5738.5
3332.8
P2029-30
21853.0
21853.0
15218.8
6634.2
-6631.7
4193.1
P2030-31
25139.8
25139.8
17471.1
7668.7
-7666.2
5246.0
P2031-32
28929.7
28929.7
20062.5
8867.2
-8864.7
6531.9
P2032-33
33300.8
33300.8
23044.8
10256.0
-10253.5
8099.3
P2033-34
38343.7
38343.7
26477.9
11865.8
-11863.3
10006.9
P2034-35
44163.1
44163.1
30430.8
13732.3
-13729.8
12324.7
46

Items
BUDBAL
DOMBR
FRBR
CASH
C/AC (ML$)
Bal-G&S
2003-04
-78.0
73.3
52.7
-48.0
176.0
-3193.0
2004-05
-114.0
66.5
61.9
-14.4
-557.0
-4167.0
2005-06
-114.0
91.4
89.6
-67.0
824.0
-3912.0
2006-07
-134.0
91.0
51.8
-8.8
952.0
-4719.0
2007-08
-262.0
141.0
87.6
33.4
680.0
-6855.0
2008-09
-205.0
141.9
102.2
-39.1
2536.0
-6329.0
2009-10
-192.0
158.2
151.5
-117.7
3535.0
-6398.0
2010-11
-305.0
305.9
26.3
-27.2
-1686.0
-12547.0
2011-12
-290.0
344.7
74.0
-128.7
-447.0
-12321.0
2012-13
-305.6
152.8
152.8
0.1
2525.0
-10169.0
Mean
-200.0
156.7
85.0
-41.7
853.8
-7061.0
Median
-198.5
141.5
80.8
-33.1
752.0
-6363.5
CV(%)
-43.5
60.8
48.9
-122.3
189.0
-48.9
SKEW
0.0
1.3
0.6
-0.6
0.2
-0.7
KURT
-1.8
0.7
-0.3
-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
(of Trend)
3.9
3.6
3.9
5.0
5.3
7.5
(of Trend)
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.1
R (of Trend
0.9
0.9
0.3
-0.3
0.6
0.9
(DbLog)
-4.9
-5.7
1.1
18.3
-5.5
-1.4
=wrtY
1.2
1.2
0.4
-1.8
1.4
1.2
R (DbLog)
0.9
0.9
0.3
-0.3
0.6
0.9
ExpGR
15.2
8.2
11.8
-68.6
29.6
12.9
TRGR
16.1
17.0
5.0
-20.0
20.9
16.1
AveGR
18.1
23.8
37.5
-38.1
-125.1
17.7
STDGR
34.7
46.6
73.6
271.7
263.5
34.6
CVGR(%)
191.9
196.0
196.1
-713.5
-210.6
195.7
ProjMethod
Derived
Policy
Policy
Residual
Identity
Identity
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
-376.0
188.0
188.0
0.0
1523.1
-12172.0
P2014-15
-439.1
219.5
219.5
0.0
1101.6
-13825.2
P2015-16
-513.0
256.5
256.5
0.0
553.4
-15706.7
P2016-17
-599.6
299.8
299.8
0.0
-147.0
-17848.3
P2017-18
-701.2
350.6
350.6
0.0
-1029.3
-20286.7
P2018-19
-820.5
410.2
410.2
0.0
-2128.4
-23063.7
P2019-20
-960.5
480.3
480.3
0.0
-3485.3
-26226.8
P2020-21
-1125.0
562.5
562.5
0.0
-5148.0
-29830.8
P2021-22
-1318.3
659.1
659.1
0.0
-7172.7
-33937.8
P2022-23
-1395.8
697.9
697.9
0.0
-6656.4
-35682.3
P2023-24
-1467.5
733.8
733.8
0.0
-5942.5
-37389.6
P2024-25
-1527.4
763.7
763.7
0.0
-4992.6
-39026.2
P2025-26
-1569.8
784.9
784.9
0.0
-3761.5
-40551.5
P2026-27
-1587.4
793.7
793.7
0.0
-2196.8
-41915.7
P2027-28
-1571.2
785.6
785.6
0.0
-237.5
-43058.5
P2028-29
-1509.5
754.8
754.8
0.0
2187.1
-43907.1
P2029-30
-1388.2
694.1
694.1
0.0
5159.2
-44373.8
P2030-31
-1189.1
594.5
594.5
0.0
8774.0
-44354.0
P2031-32
-890.0
445.0
445.0
0.0
13141.7
-43722.6
P2032-33
-463.3
231.6
231.6
0.0
18389.7
-42330.9
P2033-34
125.0
-62.5
-62.5
0.0
24665.4
-40002.4
P2034-35
916.9
-458.4
-458.4
0.0
32138.9
-36528.3
47

Items
XGS
MGS
Income, net
Transfers
Official
Private
2003-04
8445.0
11638.0
-374.0
3743.0
61.0
3682.0
2004-05
9750.0
13917.0
-680.0
4290.0
37.0
4253.0
2005-06
11752.0
15664.0
-702.0
5438.0
125.0
5313.0
2006-07
13537.0
18256.0
-883.0
6554.0
97.0
6457.0
2007-08
16042.0
22897.0
-994.0
8529.0
127.0
8402.0
2008-09
17415.0
23744.0
-1361.0
10226.0
72.0
10154.0
2009-10
18701.0
25099.0
-1474.0
11407.0
127.0
11280.0
2010-11
25165.0
37712.0
-1454.0
12315.0
103.0
12212.0
2011-12
26683.0
39004.0
-1549.0
13423.0
106.0
13317.0
2012-13
29396.0
39565.0
-2315.0
15009.0
64.0
14945.0
Mean
17688.6
24749.6
-1178.6
9093.4
91.9
9001.5
Median
16728.5
23320.5
-1177.5
9377.5
100.0
9278.0
CV(%)
41.2
42.8
-47.9
43.8
34.5
44.1
SKEW
0.4
0.4
-0.6
0.0
-0.4
0.0
KURT
-1.2
-1.4
0.5
-1.5
-1.1
-1.5
(of Trend)
8.5
8.8
5.5
7.7
4.1
7.6
(of Trend)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3
1.0
(DbLog)
0.2
0.3
-4.3
-1.8
1.7
-1.9
=wrtY
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.2
0.3
1.3
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3
1.0
ExpGR
13.9
13.6
20.3
15.4
0.5
15.6
TRGR
15.0
15.4
18.3
17.4
4.4
17.5
AveGR
15.1
15.3
16.5
16.1
15.9
16.3
STDGR
8.4
14.6
16.0
7.9
86.5
7.6
CVGR(%)
55.5
95.8
97.4
48.8
544.5
46.5
ProjMethod
Elasticity
Elasticity
Elasticity
Identity
Policy
AdjGR
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
10.0
10.0
P2013-14
34733.1
46905.1
-2814.7
16509.9
70.4
16439.5
P2014-15
39084.5
52909.8
-3234.0
18160.9
77.4
18083.5
P2015-16
43993.4
59700.0
-3716.9
19977.0
85.2
19891.8
P2016-17
49532.5
67380.8
-4273.4
21974.7
93.7
21881.0
P2017-18
55784.4
76071.1
-4914.7
24172.1
103.1
24069.1
P2018-19
62842.7
85906.4
-5654.0
26589.4
113.4
26476.0
P2019-20
70813.6
97040.4
-6506.7
29248.3
124.7
29123.6
P2020-21
79817.2
109648.0
-7490.3
32173.1
137.2
32035.9
P2021-22
89990.1
123927.9
-8625.4
35390.4
150.9
35239.5
P2022-23
101205.5
136887.8
-9903.5
38929.5
166.0
38763.5
P2023-24
113856.2
151245.8
-11375.4
42822.4
182.6
42639.8
P2024-25
128130.2
167156.4
-13071.0
47104.7
200.9
46903.8
P2025-26
144240.5
184792.0
-15025.1
51815.1
220.9
51594.2
P2026-27
162428.4
204344.1
-17277.7
56996.7
243.0
56753.6
P2027-28
182967.5
226026.0
-19875.3
62696.3
267.3
62429.0
P2028-29
206168.4
250075.4
-22871.8
68965.9
294.1
68671.9
P2029-30
232383.0
276756.8
-26329.6
75862.5
323.5
75539.1
P2030-31
262010.8
306364.8
-30320.9
83448.8
355.8
83093.0
P2031-32
295505.2
339227.8
-34929.4
91793.7
391.4
91402.3
P2032-33
333380.6
375711.5
-40252.4
100973.0
430.6
100542.5
P2033-34
376221.1
416223.5
-46402.5
111070.4
473.6
110596.7
P2034-35
424689.8
461218.1
-53510.2
122177.4
521.0
121656.4
48

Items
Remittance
CapA/C
Fin A/C
FDI
Portfolio
Other Inv
2003-04
3372.0
196.0
-31.0
385.0
6.0
-313.0
2004-05
3848.3
163.0
784.0
800.0
0.1
-16.0
2005-06
4802.4
375.0
-141.0
743.0
32.0
-916.0
2006-07
5978.5
490.0
762.0
760.0
106.0
-137.0
2007-08
7914.8
576.0
-457.0
748.0
47.0
-1252.0
2008-09
9689.3
451.0
-825.0
961.0
-159.0
-1627.0
2009-10
10987.4
512.0
-651.0
913.0
-117.0
-1447.0
2010-11
11650.3
642.0
-1920.0
775.0
-28.0
-2667.0
2011-12
12843.4
469.0
-955.0
1191.0
198.0
-2148.0
2012-13
14461.1
510.3
-1026.0
1300.0
222.8
-2255.4
Mean
8554.7
438.4
-446.0
857.6
30.8
-1277.8
Median
8802.0
479.5
-554.0
787.5
19.0
-1349.5
CV(%)
46.1
35.1
-186.0
29.8
395.8
-72.6
SKEW
0.0
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
KURT
-1.5
0.1
0.0
0.8
-0.4
-1.3
(of Trend)
7.5
5.0
3.9
5.9
-0.9
3.2
(of Trend)
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.4
R (of Trend
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
(DbLog)
-2.5
-1.5
-12.4
0.7
-31.7
-20.1
=wrtY
1.3
0.9
2.1
0.7
4.1
3.1
R (DbLog)
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
ExpGR
16.2
10.6
38.9
13.5
40.2
21.9
TRGR
18.5
11.9
32.2
9.4
68.9
48.1
AveGR
17.7
10.6
-344.3
22.8
3061.1
535.3
STDGR
8.0
49.8
832.3
62.9
10136.9
1839.4
CVGR(%)
45.5
468.9
-241.7
276.0
331.2
343.6
ProjMethod
AdjGR
AvGR
Identity
Policy
Policy
Policy
PGR
11.0
10.6
Variable
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2013-14
16051.9
564.5
-655.1
1462.5
250.6
-2368.2
P2014-15
17817.6
624.5
-559.3
1645.3
281.9
-2486.6
P2015-16
19777.5
690.9
-442.8
1851.0
317.2
-2610.9
P2016-17
21953.0
764.4
-302.3
2082.3
356.8
-2741.5
P2017-18
24367.9
845.6
-134.5
2342.6
401.4
-2878.5
P2018-19
27048.3
935.5
64.6
2635.5
451.6
-3022.5
P2019-20
30023.6
1035.0
299.4
2964.9
508.0
-3173.6
P2020-21
33326.2
1145.0
574.8
3335.5
571.5
-3332.3
P2021-22
36992.1
1266.7
896.6
3752.5
643.0
-3498.9
P2022-23
41061.3
1401.4
1258.5
4209.0
723.3
-3673.8
P2023-24
45578.0
1550.3
1677.2
4721.0
813.8
-3857.5
P2024-25
50591.6
1715.1
2160.4
5295.3
915.5
-4050.4
P2025-26
56156.7
1897.5
2716.5
5939.5
1029.9
-4252.9
P2026-27
62333.9
2099.2
3355.1
6662.0
1158.7
-4465.5
P2027-28
69190.6
2322.3
4087.1
7472.5
1303.5
-4688.8
P2028-29
76801.6
2569.2
4924.7
8381.5
1466.4
-4923.3
P2029-30
85249.8
2842.3
5881.5
9401.2
1649.7
-5169.4
P2030-31
94627.2
3144.5
6972.9
10544.8
1855.9
-5427.9
P2031-32
105036.2
3478.7
8216.3
11827.6
2087.9
-5699.3
P2032-33
116590.2
3848.5
9631.1
13266.5
2348.9
-5984.2
P2033-34
129415.1
4257.7
11239.4
14880.4
2642.5
-6283.5
P2034-35
143650.8
4710.3
13065.8
16690.6
2972.9
-6597.6
49

Items
Errors
BOPBAL
Reserves
GDPMP(bl$
2003-04
-170.0
171.0
2705.0
56.5
2004-05
-323.0
67.0
2930.0
60.4
2005-06
-720.0
338.0
3484.0
62.0
2006-07
-695.0
1493.0
5077.0
68.4
2007-08
-490.0
331.0
6149.0
79.6
2008-09
16.0
2058.0
7471.0
89.4
2009-10
-720.0
2865.0
10750.0
100.4
2010-11
-263.0
-656.0
10912.0
111.9
2011-12
-650.0
494.0
10364.0
116.1
2012-13
-663.0
252.8
15315.0
124.2
Mean
-467.8
741.4
7515.7
86.9
Median
-570.0
334.5
6810.0
84.5
CV(%)
-56.8
143.4
56.0
29.0
SKEW
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.2
KURT
-0.9
0.4
-0.6
-1.7
(of Trend)
5.4
4.9
7.1
3.6
(of Trend)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
R (of Trend
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
2.3
-3.5
-4.6
-2.1
=wrtY
0.4
1.1
1.5
0.8
R (DbLog)
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
15.1
4.3
19.3
8.7
TRGR
5.5
16.1
21.8
10.1
AveGR
-445.3
74.2
5.6
8.7
STDGR
1462.0
250.2
43.7
4.6
CVGR(%)
-328.3
336.9
787.5
52.8
ProjMethod
Policy
Identity
Identity
Identity
PGR
2.0
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
-676.3
676.3
15991.3
144.7
P2014-15
-689.8
689.8
16681.0
161.3
P2015-16
-703.6
703.6
17384.6
179.8
P2016-17
-717.7
717.7
18102.3
200.5
P2017-18
-732.0
732.0
18834.3
223.6
P2018-19
-746.6
746.6
19580.9
249.5
P2019-20
-761.6
761.6
20342.5
278.4
P2020-21
-776.8
776.8
21119.3
310.7
P2021-22
-792.3
792.3
21911.7
346.9
P2022-23
-808.2
808.2
23525.7
386.4
P2023-24
-824.4
824.4
24350.0
430.5
P2024-25
-840.8
840.8
25190.9
479.9
P2025-26
-857.7
857.7
26048.5
535.0
P2026-27
-874.8
874.8
26923.3
596.6
P2027-28
-892.3
892.3
27815.7
665.5
P2028-29
-910.2
910.2
28725.8
742.6
P2029-30
-928.4
928.4
29654.2
828.9
P2030-31
-946.9
946.9
30601.1
925.5
P2031-32
-965.9
965.9
31567.0
1033.6
P2032-33
-985.2
985.2
32552.2
1154.6
P2033-34
-1004.9
1004.9
33557.0
1290.1
P2034-35
-1025.0
1025.0
34582.0
1442.0
50

Table-2.15: Data and Projections for FY2014-2035

Items
ExtDT(ML$)
LT Debt
ST Debt
2003-04
19659.2
18643.4
712.0
2004-05
18448.8
17384.6
688.4
2005-06
20105.8
18380.4
1178.0
2006-07
21372.6
19428.0
1369.7
2007-08
22952.4
20299.9
1894.3
2008-09
24618.8
21209.9
1934.2
2009-10
25751.7
21399.6
2949.2
2010-11
27043.3
22350.1
3422.3
2011-12
27820.0
23450.0
3750.0
2012-13
28736.3
23960.3
4125.0
Mean
23650.9
20650.6
2202.3
Median
23785.6
20754.9
1914.3
CV(%)
15.5
10.7
57.8
SKEW
0.0
0.1
0.3
KURT
-1.6
-1.2
-1.5
(of Trend)
9.6
9.6
5.7
(of Trend)
0.1
0.0
0.2
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
1.0
(DbLog)
6.6
7.6
-6.9
=wrtY
0.4
0.3
1.7
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
1.0
ExpGR
4.2
2.8
19.5
TRGR
5.2
3.5
23.9
AveGR
4.6
3.2
22.8
STDGR
4.3
3.8
23.7
CVGR(%)
91.5
120.4
103.9
ProjMethod
Identity
+CapA/C
GR
PGR
Variable
Variable
10.0
P2013-14
29745.8
24524.8
4537.5
P2014-15
30858.3
25149.3
4991.3
P2015-16
32084.2
25840.2
5490.4
P2016-17
33435.3
26604.6
6039.4
P2017-18
34924.4
27450.2
6643.4
P2018-19
36565.8
28385.7
7307.7
P2019-20
38375.2
29420.7
8038.5
P2020-21
40369.8
30565.7
8842.3
P2021-22
42568.8
31832.4
9726.5
P2022-23
44993.3
33233.8
10699.2
P2023-24
47666.6
34784.1
11769.1
P2024-25
50614.3
36499.2
12946.0
P2025-26
53864.9
38396.7
14240.6
P2026-27
57449.5
40495.9
15664.7
P2027-28
61402.7
42818.2
17231.1
P2028-29
65762.7
45387.4
18954.3
P2029-30
70571.5
48229.7
20849.7
P2030-31
75875.5
51374.2
22934.7
P2031-32
81726.1
54852.9
25228.1
P2032-33
88179.7
58701.5
27750.9
P2033-34
95298.8
62959.1
30526.0
P2034-35
103152.4
67669.4
33578.6
51

Items
IMF credit
ExDT/GN% LTDT/DT % STDT/DT % DTSR/XG% Debt Servc
2003-04
303.8
33.1
94.8
3.6
8.2
651.1
2004-05
375.8
29.1
94.2
3.7
7.0
798.2
2005-06
547.4
30.4
91.4
5.9
7.5
708.8
2006-07
575.0
29.1
90.9
6.4
5.4
987.7
2007-08
758.2
26.5
88.4
8.3
6.9
873.6
2008-09
1474.7
25.3
86.2
7.9
5.0
924.3
2009-10
1402.9
23.5
83.1
11.5
5.6
976.0
2010-11
1270.8
22.1
82.6
12.7
4.7
1357.7
2011-12
620.0
21.8
84.3
13.5
5.0
1426.7
2012-13
651.0
21.0
83.4
14.4
4.2
1253.5
Mean
797.9
26.2
87.9
8.8
5.9
995.8
Median
635.5
25.9
87.3
8.1
5.5
950.2
CV(%)
53.5
15.7
5.3
45.4
22.6
26.9
SKEW
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.5
KURT
-1.1
-1.2
-1.6
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
(of Trend)
5.6
3.7
4.6
0.7
2.3
6.2
(of Trend)
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
0.6
-1.0
-0.9
1.0
-0.9
0.9
(DbLog)
-0.6
6.7
5.6
-8.9
6.2
1.4
=wrtY
0.8
-0.4
-0.1
1.3
-0.5
0.6
R (DbLog)
0.6
-1.0
-0.9
1.0
-0.9
0.9
ExpGR
8.5
-5.0
-1.4
15.3
-7.4
7.3
TRGR
11.5
-4.9
-1.6
17.7
-6.4
8.3
AveGR
25.2
-4.1
-1.4
17.1
-7.0
9.4
STDGR
48.9
4.1
1.6
20.1
18.7
19.2
CVGR(%)
194.0
-100.5
-118.8
117.9
-268.3
205.7
ProjMethod
GR
Identity
Identity
Identity
Identity
Identity
PGR
5.0
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
683.6
18.6
82.4
15.3
3.6
1302.8
P2014-15
717.7
17.3
81.5
16.2
3.2
1357.1
P2015-16
753.6
16.1
80.5
17.1
2.9
1417.0
P2016-17
791.3
15.0
79.6
18.1
2.6
1482.9
P2017-18
830.9
14.1
78.6
19.0
2.3
1555.6
P2018-19
872.4
13.2
77.6
20.0
2.1
1635.8
P2019-20
916.0
12.4
76.7
20.9
1.9
1724.1
P2020-21
961.8
11.6
75.7
21.9
1.7
1821.4
P2021-22
1009.9
11.0
74.8
22.8
1.6
1928.7
P2022-23
1060.4
10.4
73.9
23.8
1.5
2047.0
P2023-24
1113.4
9.9
73.0
24.7
1.4
2177.5
P2024-25
1169.1
9.4
72.1
25.6
1.3
2321.2
P2025-26
1227.6
9.0
71.3
26.4
1.2
2479.8
P2026-27
1288.9
8.6
70.5
27.3
1.1
2654.5
P2027-28
1353.4
8.3
69.7
28.1
1.1
2847.2
P2028-29
1421.1
7.9
69.0
28.8
1.0
3059.7
P2029-30
1492.1
7.6
68.3
29.5
1.0
3294.0
P2030-31
1566.7
7.4
67.7
30.2
0.9
3552.4
P2031-32
1645.0
7.1
67.1
30.9
0.9
3837.2
P2032-33
1727.3
6.9
66.6
31.5
0.8
4151.4
P2033-34
1813.7
6.7
66.1
32.0
0.8
4497.8
P2034-35
1904.3
6.4
65.6
32.6
0.7
4879.9
52

Items
Amortizatin
Int on LTD
Int on STD
Interest (%) Maturity(Yr)
Grace
2003-04
452.0
175.4
23.7
1.0
36.6
9.4
2004-05
566.1
197.0
35.1
1.3
35.2
9.2
2005-06
482.5
167.5
58.8
1.1
33.6
8.7
2006-07
735.4
180.3
72.0
1.2
32.3
8.2
2007-08
631.9
202.7
39.0
1.1
37.5
9.5
2008-09
703.3
197.1
23.9
0.9
25.6
7.4
2009-10
743.3
200.9
31.8
0.9
34.5
8.9
2010-11
1049.9
258.3
49.5
1.1
34.7
3.6
2011-12
1093.9
277.8
55.0
1.2
35.8
9.3
2012-13
862.1
263.6
127.9
1.4
35.8
9.0
Mean
732.0
212.0
51.7
1.1
34.2
8.3
Median
719.4
199.0
44.3
1.1
34.9
8.9
CV(%)
29.8
18.7
60.1
13.4
9.8
21.4
SKEW
0.5
0.8
1.8
0.0
-2.1
-2.5
KURT
-0.6
-1.0
4.0
-0.5
5.3
6.6
(of Trend)
5.8
4.9
3.1
0.0
3.5
2.3
(of Trend)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
R (of Trend
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.3
(DbLog)
0.6
1.8
-2.1
-0.5
3.5
4.0
=wrtY
0.7
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
-0.2
R (DbLog)
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.3
ExpGR
7.2
4.5
18.7
3.3
-0.2
-0.6
TRGR
9.2
5.3
9.2
0.9
-0.1
-2.9
AveGR
9.9
5.7
36.8
4.6
2.6
11.1
STDGR
24.1
11.9
53.8
14.1
17.2
56.7
CVGR(%)
243.3
206.8
146.2
304.1
674.1
512.8
ProjMethod
AveRatio
AveRatio
AveRatio
Derived
MinGR
MinGR
PGR
9.9
5.7
36.8
4.6
-0.2
-2.9
P2013-14
892.4
269.8
140.7
1.4
35.7
8.7
P2014-15
925.7
276.6
154.7
1.4
35.6
8.5
P2015-16
962.5
284.2
170.2
1.4
35.5
8.2
P2016-17
1003.1
292.7
187.2
1.4
35.4
8.0
P2017-18
1047.7
302.0
205.9
1.5
35.3
7.7
P2018-19
1097.0
312.2
226.5
1.5
35.3
7.5
P2019-20
1151.3
323.6
249.2
1.5
35.2
7.3
P2020-21
1211.1
336.2
274.1
1.5
35.1
7.1
P2021-22
1277.1
350.2
301.5
1.5
35.0
6.9
P2022-23
1349.8
365.6
331.7
1.5
34.9
6.7
P2023-24
1430.0
382.6
364.8
1.6
34.8
6.5
P2024-25
1518.4
401.5
401.3
1.6
34.7
6.3
P2025-26
1615.9
422.4
441.5
1.6
34.6
6.1
P2026-27
1723.5
445.5
485.6
1.6
34.6
5.9
P2027-28
1842.1
471.0
534.2
1.6
34.5
5.8
P2028-29
1972.9
499.3
587.6
1.7
34.4
5.6
P2029-30
2117.1
530.5
646.3
1.7
34.3
5.4
P2030-31
2276.3
565.1
711.0
1.7
34.2
5.3
P2031-32
2451.8
603.4
782.1
1.7
34.1
5.1
P2032-33
2645.4
645.7
860.3
1.7
34.0
5.0
P2033-34
2859.0
692.6
946.3
1.7
34.0
4.8
P2034-35
3094.6
744.4
1040.9
1.7
33.9
4.7
53

Items
Grant(%)
Amor/Debt
Int TL (%)
Int LT
Int ST
XGS($ Bln)
2003-04
76.3
2.4
1.0
0.9
3.3
8445.0
2004-05
71.1
3.3
1.3
1.1
5.1
9750.0
2005-06
66.1
2.6
1.1
0.9
5.0
11752.0
2006-07
64.6
3.8
1.2
0.9
5.3
13537.0
2007-08
75.4
3.1
1.1
1.0
2.1
16042.0
2008-09
54.9
3.3
0.9
0.9
1.2
17415.0
2009-10
74.6
3.5
0.9
0.9
1.1
18701.0
2010-11
69.1
4.7
1.1
1.2
1.4
25165.0
2011-12
75.5
4.7
1.2
1.2
1.5
26683.0
2012-13
75.4
3.0
1.4
1.1
3.1
29396.0
Mean
70.3
3.4
1.1
1.0
2.9
17688.6
Median
72.8
3.3
1.1
1.0
2.6
16728.5
CV(%)
9.8
22.2
13.4
10.6
58.4
41.2
SKEW
-1.4
0.7
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.4
KURT
1.7
-0.3
-0.5
-1.8
-1.7
-1.2
(of Trend)
4.2
0.8
0.0
-0.1
2.0
8.5
(of Trend)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
R (of Trend
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.5
-0.6
1.0
(DbLog)
3.9
-1.7
-0.5
-1.2
9.5
0.2
=wrtY
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
-1.0
1.1
R (DbLog)
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.5
-0.6
1.0
ExpGR
-0.1
2.4
3.3
1.7
-0.8
13.9
TRGR
0.4
4.4
0.9
1.8
-11.8
15.0
AveGR
2.0
5.5
4.6
2.7
14.8
15.1
STDGR
17.0
26.1
14.1
12.7
50.6
8.4
CVGR(%)
848.5
477.6
304.1
475.3
342.8
55.3
ProjMethod
MinGR
Derived
Derived
Derived
Derived
Derived
PGR
-0.1
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
75.3
3.0
1.4
1.1
3.1
34733.1
P2014-15
75.2
3.0
1.4
1.1
3.1
39084.5
P2015-16
75.1
3.0
1.4
1.1
3.1
43993.4
P2016-17
75.0
3.0
1.4
1.1
3.1
49532.5
P2017-18
74.9
3.0
1.5
1.1
3.1
55784.4
P2018-19
74.9
3.0
1.5
1.1
3.1
62842.7
P2019-20
74.8
3.0
1.5
1.1
3.1
70813.6
P2020-21
74.7
3.0
1.5
1.1
3.1
79817.2
P2021-22
74.6
3.0
1.5
1.1
3.1
89990.1
P2022-23
74.5
4.1
1.5
1.1
3.1
101205.5
P2023-24
74.4
4.1
1.6
1.1
3.1
113856.2
P2024-25
74.3
4.2
1.6
1.1
3.1
128130.2
P2025-26
74.2
4.2
1.6
1.1
3.1
144240.5
P2026-27
74.1
4.3
1.6
1.1
3.1
162428.4
P2027-28
74.0
4.3
1.6
1.1
3.1
182967.5
P2028-29
73.9
4.3
1.7
1.1
3.1
206168.4
P2029-30
73.8
4.4
1.7
1.1
3.1
232383.0
P2030-31
73.7
4.4
1.7
1.1
3.1
262010.8
P2031-32
73.7
4.5
1.7
1.1
3.1
295505.2
P2032-33
73.6
4.5
1.7
1.1
3.1
333380.6
P2033-34
73.5
4.5
1.7
1.1
3.1
376221.1
P2034-35
73.4
4.6
1.7
1.1
3.1
424689.8
54

Items
MGS($ bln) TTrans$bln OfTRS($bln
2003-04
11638.0
3.7
0.1
2004-05
13917.0
4.3
0.0
2005-06
15664.0
5.4
0.1
2006-07
18256.0
6.6
0.1
2007-08
22897.0
8.5
0.1
2008-09
23744.0
10.2
0.1
2009-10
25099.0
11.4
0.1
2010-11
37712.0
12.3
0.1
2011-12
39004.0
13.4
0.1
2012-13
39565.0
15.1
0.1
Mean
24749.6
9.1
0.1
Median
23320.5
9.4
0.1
CV(%)
42.8
43.9
31.8
SKEW
0.4
0.0
-0.9
KURT
-1.4
-1.5
-0.1
(of Trend)
8.8
0.7
-3.0
(of Trend)
0.1
0.2
0.1
R (of Trend
1.0
1.0
0.6
(DbLog)
0.3
-8.7
-7.4
=wrtY
1.1
1.2
0.6
R (DbLog)
1.0
1.0
0.6
ExpGR
13.6
15.5
7.1
TRGR
15.4
17.4
7.8
AveGR
15.4
16.2
20.7
STDGR
14.7
7.8
84.4
CVGR(%)
95.6
48.5
406.7
ProjMethod
Derived
Derived
Derived
PGR
Variable
Variable
Variable
P2013-14
46905.1
16.5
0.1
P2014-15
52909.8
18.2
0.1
P2015-16
59700.0
20.0
0.1
P2016-17
67380.8
22.0
0.1
P2017-18
76071.1
24.2
0.1
P2018-19
85906.4
26.6
0.1
P2019-20
97040.4
29.2
0.1
P2020-21
109648.0
32.2
0.1
P2021-22
123927.9
35.4
0.2
P2022-23
139709.9
38.9
0.2
P2023-24
157555.0
42.8
0.2
P2024-25
177738.6
47.1
0.2
P2025-26
200574.0
51.8
0.2
P2026-27
226417.2
57.0
0.2
P2027-28
255672.6
62.7
0.3
P2028-29
288800.3
69.0
0.3
P2029-30
326323.2
75.9
0.3
P2030-31
368836.1
83.4
0.4
P2031-32
417015.7
91.8
0.4
P2032-33
471631.8
101.0
0.4
P2033-34
533560.8
111.1
0.5
P2034-35
603799.9
122.2
0.5
55

56

Annex-3
Past (FY2003-2013) and
Projected Growth Rates (FY2014-2035)
Of Macroeconomic Variables
57

58

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35
Table-3.1: Past (FY2003-2013) and Projected Growth Rates (FY2014-2035)

Mining
Manuf
Utility
POP (Mln)
GDPCstMP
Agr
7.6
7.1
9.1
1.4
6.3
4.1
8.6
8.2
8.8
1.4
6.0
2.2
9.3
10.8
7.6
1.4
6.6
4.9
8.2
9.7
2.2
1.4
6.4
4.6
9.0
7.2
6.7
1.5
6.2
3.2
9.9
6.7
5.9
1.4
5.7
4.1
8.7
6.5
7.3
1.3
6.1
5.2
4.9
9.4
6.6
1.3
6.7
5.1
7.7
9.4
12.1
1.3
6.2
3.1
11.2
9.3
8.5
1.4
6.0
2.2
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.7
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.8
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.8
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.8
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.8
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.9
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.9
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.9
4.6
8.5
8.3
6.9
1.4
6.9
4.6
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.6
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.6
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.6
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.7
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.7
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.7
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.8
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.8
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.8
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.9
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.9
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.9
4.1
8.3
8.1
6.4
1.4
6.9
4.1
59

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

Const
Trade
Trans
Finance
PubAdm
Others
8.3
6.6
6.2
7.0
7.1
4.6
8.3
7.1
7.9
9.0
8.0
4.8
8.3
6.7
8.0
8.5
8.2
5.0
7.0
8.0
8.0
9.1
8.4
5.2
5.7
6.8
8.6
8.9
6.2
5.1
5.7
6.2
8.0
8.9
7.1
5.2
6.0
5.9
7.7
11.7
8.4
5.5
6.5
6.3
5.7
9.7
9.6
5.6
7.6
5.6
6.6
11.0
5.8
5.3
8.1
10.3
6.7
9.0
5.1
1.6
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.7
7.3
8.5
10.6
7.5
5.1
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
7.5
7.2
8.1
10.1
7.0
4.4
60

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

IndTax
NFI
GNI
GDPCstMP CPI(95/96)
GDPDF
18.2
1.5
6.0
6.3
5.8
4.2
6.5
2.6
5.8
6.0
6.5
5.1
-2.6
36.7
8.1
6.6
7.2
5.2
-4.0
21.4
7.3
6.4
7.2
6.8
15.2
26.1
7.6
6.2
9.9
8.8
1.5
8.5
6.0
5.7
6.7
6.5
1.8
8.5
6.3
6.1
7.3
6.5
10.0
4.4
6.5
6.7
8.3
7.5
4.9
13.5
6.8
6.2
8.7
8.5
5.2
13.7
6.7
6.0
3.2
6.7
3.9
10.9
7.1
6.7
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.2
6.8
7.7
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.2
6.8
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.2
6.8
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.3
6.8
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.3
6.9
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.4
6.9
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.4
6.9
7.5
7.0
3.9
10.9
7.4
6.9
7.5
7.0
2.2
8.3
6.8
6.6
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
6.8
6.6
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
6.9
6.6
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
6.9
6.7
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
6.9
6.7
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.0
6.7
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
2.2
8.3
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
61

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

EndExRTK/ AveExRTK/ GDPCurMP
PVTC
GOVC
GFCF
$
$
3.3
2.3
10.8
9.2
14.6
13.7
9.0
8.1
11.3
10.6
11.5
13.7
9.3
9.3
12.1
11.8
12.2
12.7
-1.2
2.9
13.6
13.5
13.4
12.8
-0.4
-0.6
15.5
16.0
10.4
14.3
0.8
0.3
12.6
13.0
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
12.9
12.8
15.2
13.1
6.8
2.9
14.7
15.3
23.7
18.2
10.3
11.1
15.2
15.6
11.3
21.6
-5.0
1.0
13.1
12.9
13.7
14.0
2.5
2.5
14.2
14.3
14.4
15.3
2.5
2.5
14.2
14.3
14.4
15.3
2.5
2.5
14.2
14.4
14.5
15.4
2.5
2.5
14.3
14.4
14.5
15.4
2.5
2.5
14.3
14.4
14.5
15.4
2.5
2.5
14.3
14.4
14.6
15.5
2.5
2.5
14.4
14.5
14.6
15.5
2.5
2.5
14.4
14.5
14.6
15.5
2.5
2.5
14.4
14.5
14.7
15.5
1.7
2.3
14.0
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.0
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.1
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.1
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.1
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.2
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.2
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.2
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.3
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.3
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.3
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.3
13.7
13.5
14.6
1.7
2.3
14.4
13.7
13.5
14.6
62

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

XGS
MGS
Stocks
NFI
GNICuMP
GDCF
20.5
15.1
-9.5
5.9
10.5
13.7
19.4
23.3
153.1
7.9
11.2
13.7
28.3
22.8
7.3
43.7
13.7
12.7
18.5
20.2
71.0
29.7
14.6
12.8
18.8
24.4
85.5
37.2
17.0
14.3
7.6
4.0
-29.1
15.5
12.9
13.4
7.0
6.4
-8.8
15.6
13.2
13.1
42.8
45.0
42.4
12.2
14.5
18.2
16.6
17.1
-32.4
23.1
15.9
21.6
18.1
18.3
33.1
16.2
13.4
14.0
19.0
19.3
20.7
16.6
14.4
15.3
19.0
19.3
23.0
16.6
14.4
15.3
19.0
19.3
23.5
16.6
14.5
15.4
19.0
19.3
24.0
16.6
14.5
15.4
19.1
19.4
24.4
16.6
14.5
15.4
19.1
19.4
24.6
16.6
14.6
15.5
19.2
19.5
24.9
16.6
14.6
15.5
19.2
19.5
25.0
16.6
14.6
15.5
19.2
19.5
25.1
16.6
14.7
15.5
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
13.9
14.6
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
14.0
14.6
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
14.0
14.6
16.4
16.5
24.4
13.4
14.0
14.6
16.4
16.5
24.2
13.4
14.0
14.6
16.4
16.5
24.0
13.4
14.1
14.6
16.4
16.5
23.8
13.4
14.1
14.6
16.4
16.5
23.6
13.4
14.1
14.6
16.4
16.5
23.3
13.4
14.2
14.6
16.4
16.5
23.1
13.4
14.2
14.6
16.4
16.5
22.9
13.4
14.2
14.6
16.4
16.5
22.6
13.4
14.3
14.6
16.4
16.5
22.4
13.4
14.3
14.6
63

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

GNS
GDS
NFI
NCT
PCGDP(TK PCGNI(TK)
)
13.3
16.1
5.9
-1.9
9.2
9.0
13.1
14.1
7.9
26.4
9.8
9.6
20.1
13.4
43.7
36.2
10.5
12.1
17.7
14.2
29.7
9.3
12.1
13.0
21.8
15.3
37.2
42.1
13.8
15.3
10.2
11.4
15.5
-57.6
11.1
11.3
14.6
13.0
15.6
76.5
11.5
11.7
10.0
10.1
12.2
-27.0
13.2
13.0
16.9
15.1
23.1
-42.3
13.8
14.4
14.4
13.5
16.2
3.9
11.5
11.8
14.6
13.8
16.6
-3.9
12.6
12.9
14.7
13.8
16.6
-3.9
12.7
12.9
14.7
13.8
16.6
-3.9
12.7
12.9
14.8
13.8
16.6
-4.0
12.7
12.9
14.8
13.9
16.6
-4.0
12.8
13.0
14.8
13.9
16.6
-4.0
12.8
13.0
14.9
13.9
16.6
-4.0
12.8
13.0
14.9
13.9
16.6
-4.0
12.8
13.1
15.0
14.0
16.6
-4.0
12.9
13.1
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.4
12.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.5
12.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.5
12.4
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.5
12.5
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.6
12.5
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.6
12.5
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.6
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.7
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.4
-3.9
12.7
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.4
-4.0
12.7
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.4
-4.0
12.8
12.7
13.4
13.4
13.4
-4.0
12.8
12.7
13.4
13.4
13.4
-4.0
12.8
12.7
64

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

M1(BlnTK)
Currency
DemDep
QuasiMone
MoneySup
FornAssets
y
13.9
13.7
14.0
13.8
13.8
15.9
16.3
17.1
15.4
16.9
16.7
11.6
20.5
23.5
17.2
18.9
19.3
18.1
16.5
16.5
16.4
17.2
17.1
50.5
19.4
22.7
15.5
17.1
17.6
15.2
12.0
10.3
14.1
21.4
19.2
27.2
32.5
28.0
37.7
19.5
22.4
41.3
17.2
18.7
15.5
22.7
21.3
5.2
6.4
6.6
6.2
20.7
17.4
11.7
17.2
17.6
16.9
18.1
17.9
22.9
18.2
18.4
18.1
19.7
19.4
23.3
18.2
18.4
18.1
19.7
19.4
23.3
18.3
18.4
18.1
19.7
19.4
23.3
18.3
18.5
18.1
19.8
19.5
23.4
18.4
18.5
18.2
19.8
19.5
23.4
18.4
18.6
18.2
19.9
19.6
23.5
18.4
18.6
18.2
19.9
19.6
23.5
18.5
18.6
18.3
19.9
19.7
23.6
18.5
18.7
18.3
20.0
19.7
23.6
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.5
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.5
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.5
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.5
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
16.5
16.8
16.1
19.0
18.6
19.8
65

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

DomCredit Credit-GOV Credit -PVT
CreditOther
REV&G(BlT
Others
items
K)
15.6
13.9
15.7
18.9
36.5
11.8
17.4
16.5
16.8
25.3
16.6
10.6
20.3
23.6
18.1
34.7
27.7
15.6
14.8
14.0
15.0
15.3
33.2
8.6
20.9
30.2
24.9
-33.4
40.0
27.2
16.0
24.0
14.6
7.0
6.2
6.7
17.9
-6.5
24.2
21.1
12.0
19.6
27.4
35.0
25.8
28.7
43.7
18.8
19.6
25.3
19.7
-5.1
25.9
23.6
18.0
17.3
18.5
9.2
23.0
13.0
19.8
19.5
20.4
7.7
25.7
21.7
19.8
19.5
20.4
7.7
25.7
17.0
19.9
19.6
20.4
7.7
25.8
17.0
20.0
19.6
20.4
7.7
25.8
17.1
20.1
19.6
20.5
7.7
25.8
17.1
20.1
19.7
20.5
7.8
25.8
17.1
20.2
19.7
20.6
7.8
25.8
17.2
20.3
19.8
20.6
7.8
25.7
17.2
20.3
19.8
20.6
7.8
25.7
17.3
18.6
16.5
19.2
3.0
19.8
16.7
18.6
16.5
19.2
3.0
19.9
16.7
18.6
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.0
16.8
18.7
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.1
16.8
18.7
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.1
16.9
18.7
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.2
16.9
18.7
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.2
17.0
18.7
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.0
18.8
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.0
18.8
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.1
18.8
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.1
18.8
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.1
18.8
16.5
19.2
3.0
20.3
17.2
66

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

REV
CurREV
Tax
Nontax
CapREC
13.8
13.7
13.4
14.6
0.0
10.7
10.9
12.9
2.8
-45.9
13.8
13.8
13.2
16.1
#DIV/0!
11.2
11.2
8.5
22.9
#DIV/0!
25.0
25.0
22.3
35.2
#DIV/0!
7.6
7.6
15.7
-20.2
#DIV/0!
18.6
18.6
12.5
48.8
#DIV/0!
20.6
20.6
27.3
-4.6
0.0
23.0
23.0
21.0
32.6
0.0
15.4
15.4
15.5
15.0
-100.0
17.0
16.9
17.2
15.7
#DIV/0!
16.9
16.9
17.2
15.7
0.0
17.0
17.0
17.3
15.7
0.0
17.0
17.0
17.3
15.7
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.3
15.8
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.4
15.8
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.4
15.8
0.0
17.2
17.2
17.4
15.8
0.0
17.2
17.2
17.5
15.9
0.0
16.7
16.7
16.9
15.4
150.0
16.7
16.7
17.0
15.4
0.0
16.8
16.8
17.0
15.5
0.0
16.8
16.8
17.1
15.5
0.0
16.9
16.9
17.1
15.5
0.0
16.9
16.9
17.1
15.6
0.0
16.9
16.9
17.2
15.6
0.0
17.0
17.0
17.2
15.7
0.0
17.0
17.0
17.3
15.7
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.3
15.7
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.3
15.8
0.0
17.1
17.1
17.4
15.8
0.0
17.2
17.2
17.4
15.8
0.0
67
Grants
-10.9
8.6
75.0
-47.6
127.3
-16.0
52.4
-25.0
50.0
83.3
18.1
18.1
18.1
18.1
18.2
18.2
18.2
18.3
18.3
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.2

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

EXP&NL
EXP
CurEXP
CapEXP
CAPBAL
REVBAL
13.0
13.0
12.2
14.1
13.9
10.1
12.7
12.7
17.4
6.3
6.6
-9.3
12.2
12.2
9.9
16.2
16.2
42.4
10.3
10.3
24.0
-13.0
-13.0
-47.5
41.5
41.5
26.5
78.0
78.0
33.7
-1.5
-1.5
9.2
-20.0
-20.0
-13.5
13.7
13.7
16.7
6.5
6.5
49.3
26.4
26.4
13.3
60.3
60.3
63.5
16.8
16.8
21.9
7.6
7.6
33.3
11.5
16.3
16.3
16.2
1.4
-26.4
21.9
16.9
17.6
15.6
32.2
38.6
16.9
16.9
17.6
15.6
15.6
12.3
17.0
17.0
17.6
15.6
15.6
12.2
17.0
17.0
17.7
15.6
15.6
12.0
17.1
17.1
17.7
15.7
15.7
11.8
17.1
17.1
17.8
15.7
15.7
11.6
17.2
17.2
17.8
15.7
15.7
11.4
17.2
17.2
17.8
15.7
15.8
11.1
17.2
17.2
17.9
15.8
15.8
10.8
14.7
14.7
14.5
15.3
15.2
39.5
14.8
14.8
14.6
15.3
15.4
35.2
14.8
14.8
14.6
15.4
15.4
32.5
14.9
14.9
14.6
15.4
15.4
30.5
14.9
14.9
14.7
15.4
15.5
28.9
14.9
14.9
14.7
15.5
15.5
27.7
15.0
15.0
14.7
15.5
15.5
26.7
15.0
15.0
14.8
15.6
15.6
25.8
15.0
15.0
14.8
15.6
15.6
25.1
15.1
15.1
14.8
15.6
15.6
24.5
15.1
15.1
14.9
15.7
15.7
24.0
15.1
15.1
14.9
15.7
15.7
23.6
15.2
15.2
14.9
15.7
15.7
23.2
68


BUDBAL
DOMBR
FRBR
CASH
CurAC
Bal-G&S
(ML$)
2003-04
17.2
92.4
15.8
-173.5
0.0
4.7
2004-05
19.6
-9.3
17.5
-186.6
-416.5
42.2
2005-06
0.0
37.4
44.7
365.3
-247.9
-6.1
2006-07
17.5
-0.4
-42.2
-86.9
15.5
20.6
2007-08
95.5
54.9
69.1
-479.5
-28.6
45.3
2008-09
-21.8
0.6
16.7
-217.1
272.9
-7.7
2009-10
-6.3
11.5
48.2
201.0
39.4
1.1
2010-11
58.9
93.4
-82.6
-76.9
-147.7
96.1
2011-12
-4.9
12.7
181.4
373.4
-73.5
-1.8
2012-13
5.4
-55.7
106.5
-100.1
-664.9
-17.5
P2013-14
23.0
23.0
23.0
0.0
-39.7
19.7
P2014-15
16.8
16.8
16.8
0.0
-27.7
13.6
P2015-16
16.8
16.8
16.8
9.0
-49.8
13.6
P2016-17
16.9
16.9
16.9
0.0
-126.6
13.6
P2017-18
16.9
16.9
16.9
0.0
600.1
13.7
P2018-19
17.0
17.0
17.0
0.0
106.8
13.7
P2019-20
17.1
17.1
17.1
0.0
63.8
13.7
P2020-21
17.1
17.1
17.1
0.0
47.7
13.7
P2021-22
17.2
17.2
17.2
0.0
39.3
13.8
P2022-23
5.9
5.9
5.9
0.0
-7.2
5.1
P2023-24
5.1
5.1
5.1
0.0
-10.7
4.8
P2024-25
4.1
4.1
4.1
0.0
-16.0
4.4
P2025-26
2.8
2.8
2.8
0.0
-24.7
3.9
P2026-27
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
-41.6
3.4
P2027-28
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-89.2
2.7
P2028-29
-3.9
-3.9
-3.9
0.0
-1020.8
2.0
P2029-30
-8.0
-8.0
-8.0
0.0
135.9
1.1
P2030-31
-14.3
-14.3
-14.3
0.0
70.1
0.0
P2031-32
-25.2
-25.2
-25.2
0.0
49.8
-1.4
P2032-33
-47.9
-47.9
-47.9
0.0
39.9
-3.2
P2033-34
-127.0
-127.0
-127.0
0.0
34.1
-5.5
P2034-35
633.4
633.4
633.4
0.0
30.3
-8.7
Items
69

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35
XGS
15.9
14.0
20.5
15.2
18.5
8.6
7.4
34.6
6.0
10.2
18.2
12.5
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.5
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.7
12.7
12.8
12.8
12.9
12.9
MGS
13.0
20.6
12.6
16.5
25.4
3.7
5.7
50.3
3.4
1.4
18.6
12.8
12.8
12.9
12.9
12.9
13.0
13.0
13.0
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.8
10.8
10.8
Income, net
10.0
13.3
3.2
25.8
12.6
36.9
8.3
-1.4
6.5
49.5
21.6
14.9
14.9
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.1
15.1
15.2
14.8
14.9
14.9
14.9
15.0
15.0
15.1
15.1
15.2
15.2
15.2
15.3
15.3
70
Transfers
8.8
14.6
26.8
20.5
30.1
19.9
11.5
8.0
9.0
11.8
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Official
-25.6
-39.3
237.8
-22.4
30.9
-43.3
76.4
-18.9
2.9
-39.6
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
Private
9.6
15.5
24.9
21.5
30.1
20.9
11.1
8.3
9.0
12.2
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0


Remittance
CapA/C
Fin A/C
FDI
Portfolio
Other Inv
s
2003-04
15.0
-54.2
-107.5
-26.6
200.0
-994.3
2004-05
15.5
-16.8
-2629.0
189.9
-98.3
-94.9
2005-06
24.8
130.1
-118.0
-7.1
31900.0
5625.0
2006-07
24.5
30.7
-640.4
2.3
0.0
-85.0
2007-08
32.4
17.6
-160.0
-1.6
-55.7
813.9
2008-09
22.4
-21.7
80.5
28.5
-438.3
30.0
2009-10
13.4
13.5
-21.1
-5.0
-26.4
-11.1
2010-11
6.0
25.4
194.9
-15.1
-76.1
84.3
2011-12
10.2
-26.9
-50.3
53.7
-807.1
-19.5
2012-13
12.6
8.8
7.4
9.2
12.5
5.0
P2013-14
11.0
10.6
-36.2
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2014-15
11.0
10.6
-14.6
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2015-16
11.0
10.6
-20.8
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2016-17
11.0
10.6
-31.7
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2017-18
11.0
10.6
-55.5
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2018-19
11.0
10.6
-148.0
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2019-20
11.0
10.6
363.4
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2020-21
11.0
10.6
92.0
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2021-22
11.0
10.6
56.0
12.5
12.5
5.0
P2022-23
11.0
10.6
40.4
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2023-24
11.0
10.6
33.3
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2024-25
11.0
10.6
28.8
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2025-26
11.0
10.6
25.7
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2026-27
11.0
10.6
23.5
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2027-28
11.0
10.6
21.8
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2028-29
11.0
10.6
20.5
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2029-30
11.0
10.6
19.4
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2030-31
11.0
10.6
18.6
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2031-32
11.0
10.6
17.8
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2032-33
11.0
10.6
17.2
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2033-34
11.0
10.6
16.7
12.2
12.5
5.0
P2034-35
11.0
10.6
16.2
12.2
12.5
5.0
Items
71


Errors
BOPBAL
Reserves
GDPMP(BL
$)
2003-04
-15.8
-79.0
-79.0
8.2
2004-05
90.0
-60.8
-60.8
3.0
2005-06
122.9
404.5
18.9
2.6
2006-07
-3.5
341.7
45.7
10.4
2007-08
-29.5
-77.8
21.1
16.2
2008-09
-103.3
521.8
21.5
12.3
2009-10
-4600.0
39.2
43.9
12.3
2010-11
-63.5
-122.9
1.5
11.5
2011-12
147.1
-175.3
-5.0
3.7
2012-13
2.0
-48.8
47.8
7.0
P2013-14
2.0
167.5
4.4
16.6
P2014-15
2.0
2.0
4.3
11.4
P2015-16
2.0
2.0
4.2
11.5
P2016-17
2.0
2.0
4.1
11.5
P2017-18
2.0
2.0
4.0
11.5
P2018-19
2.0
2.0
4.0
11.6
P2019-20
2.0
2.0
3.9
11.6
P2020-21
2.0
2.0
3.8
11.6
P2021-22
2.0
2.0
3.8
11.6
P2022-23
2.0
2.0
3.6
11.4
P2023-24
2.0
2.0
3.5
11.4
P2024-25
2.0
2.0
3.5
11.5
P2025-26
2.0
2.0
3.4
11.5
P2026-27
2.0
2.0
3.4
11.5
P2027-28
2.0
2.0
3.3
11.6
P2028-29
2.0
2.0
3.3
11.6
P2029-30
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.6
P2030-31
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.6
P2031-32
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.7
P2032-33
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.7
P2033-34
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.7
P2034-35
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.8
Items
72

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35

ExtDT(ML$)
LT Debt
ST Debt
6.9
5.8
15.4
-6.2
-6.8
-3.3
9.0
5.7
71.1
6.3
5.7
16.3
7.4
4.5
38.3
7.3
4.5
2.1
4.6
0.9
52.5
5.0
4.4
16.0
2.9
4.9
9.6
3.3
2.2
10.0
3.5
2.4
10.0
3.7
2.5
10.0
4.0
2.7
10.0
4.2
3.0
10.0
4.5
3.2
10.0
4.7
3.4
10.0
4.9
3.6
10.0
5.2
3.9
10.0
5.4
4.1
10.0
5.7
4.4
10.0
5.9
4.7
10.0
6.2
4.9
10.0
6.4
5.2
10.0
6.7
5.5
10.0
6.9
5.7
10.0
7.1
6.0
10.0
7.3
6.3
10.0
7.5
6.5
10.0
7.7
6.8
10.0
7.9
7.0
10.0
8.1
7.3
10.0
8.2
7.5
10.0
73


IMF credit
Ext DT/GNI
LTDT/debt
STDT/debt
DTSER/XG
Debt
%
%
%
S%
Service
2003-04
111.6
-1.0
-1.1
7.9
-20.2
10.9
2004-05
23.7
-8.7
-0.6
3.0
-14.4
22.6
2005-06
45.7
4.8
-3.0
57.0
7.3
-11.2
2006-07
5.0
-4.6
-0.6
9.4
-27.4
39.3
2007-08
31.9
-8.8
-2.7
28.8
26.9
-11.6
2008-09
94.5
-4.7
-2.6
-4.8
-27.3
5.8
2009-10
-4.9
-7.0
-3.5
45.8
11.2
5.6
2010-11
-9.4
-5.7
-0.5
10.5
-16.6
39.1
2011-12
-51.2
-1.4
2.0
6.5
7.5
5.1
2012-13
5.0
-3.7
-1.1
6.5
-16.6
-12.1
P2013-14
5.0
-11.4
-1.1
6.3
-14.4
3.9
P2014-15
5.0
-7.1
-1.2
6.0
-10.3
4.2
P2015-16
5.0
-6.9
-1.2
5.8
-10.1
4.4
P2016-17
5.0
-6.7
-1.2
5.6
-9.9
4.7
P2017-18
5.0
-6.5
-1.2
5.3
-9.7
4.9
P2018-19
5.0
-6.3
-1.2
5.1
-9.5
5.2
P2019-20
5.0
-6.1
-1.2
4.8
-9.3
5.4
P2020-21
5.0
-5.9
-1.2
4.6
-9.2
5.6
P2021-22
5.0
-5.7
-1.2
4.3
-9.0
5.9
P2022-23
5.0
-5.1
-1.2
4.1
-6.7
6.1
P2023-24
5.0
-4.9
-1.2
3.8
-6.5
6.4
P2024-25
5.0
-4.7
-1.2
3.6
-6.3
6.6
P2025-26
5.0
-4.5
-1.1
3.4
-6.1
6.8
P2026-27
5.0
-4.3
-1.1
3.1
-5.9
7.0
P2027-28
5.0
-4.1
-1.1
2.9
-5.7
7.3
P2028-29
5.0
-4.0
-1.0
2.7
-5.6
7.5
P2029-30
5.0
-3.8
-1.0
2.5
-5.4
7.7
P2030-31
5.0
-3.6
-0.9
2.3
-5.2
7.8
P2031-32
5.0
-3.5
-0.9
2.1
-5.1
8.0
P2032-33
5.0
-3.3
-0.8
1.9
-4.9
8.2
P2033-34
5.0
-3.2
-0.8
1.8
-4.8
8.3
P2034-35
5.0
-3.1
-0.7
1.6
-4.7
8.5
Items
74


Amortizatio
Int on LTD
Int on STD Interest (%) Maturity(Yr)
n
2003-04
9.0
9.8
82.2
7.8
15.1
2004-05
25.3
12.3
48.0
24.2
-3.9
2005-06
-14.8
-15.0
67.8
-10.5
-4.5
2006-07
52.4
7.6
22.4
4.9
-3.7
2007-08
-14.1
12.5
-45.8
-10.8
15.9
2008-09
11.3
-2.8
-38.7
-14.8
-31.7
2009-10
5.7
1.9
33.1
0.6
34.6
2010-11
41.2
28.6
55.8
26.0
0.7
2011-12
4.2
7.5
11.0
5.1
3.2
2012-13
-21.2
-5.1
132.5
13.9
0.0
P2013-14
3.5
2.4
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2014-15
3.7
2.5
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2015-16
4.0
2.7
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2016-17
4.2
3.0
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2017-18
4.5
3.2
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2018-19
4.7
3.4
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2019-20
4.9
3.6
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2020-21
5.2
3.9
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2021-22
5.4
4.1
10.0
1.3
-0.2
P2022-23
5.7
4.4
10.0
1.2
-0.2
P2023-24
5.9
4.7
10.0
1.2
-0.2
P2024-25
6.2
4.9
10.0
1.1
-0.2
P2025-26
6.4
5.2
10.0
1.1
-0.2
P2026-27
6.7
5.5
10.0
1.1
-0.2
P2027-28
6.9
5.7
10.0
1.0
-0.2
P2028-29
7.1
6.0
10.0
1.0
-0.2
P2029-30
7.3
6.3
10.0
0.9
-0.2
P2030-31
7.5
6.5
10.0
0.9
-0.2
P2031-32
7.7
6.8
10.0
0.8
-0.2
P2032-33
7.9
7.0
10.0
0.7
-0.2
P2033-34
8.1
7.3
10.0
0.7
-0.2
P2034-35
8.2
7.5
10.0
0.6
-0.2
Items
75
Grace
14.6
-2.5
-5.0
-6.0
15.9
-22.5
20.8
-59.6
158.4
-3.7
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9


Grant(%)
Amor/Debt
Interst TL
Int long
Int short
XGS($ Bln)
(%)
term
term
2003-04
8.9
3.1
7.8
3.8
57.9
14.3
2004-05
-6.8
34.3
24.2
20.4
53.1
16.0
2005-06
-7.1
-19.4
-10.5
-19.6
-1.9
20.5
2006-07
-2.1
44.2
4.9
1.8
5.3
15.2
2007-08
16.6
-17.8
-10.8
7.6
-60.8
18.5
2008-09
-27.2
6.5
-14.8
-6.9
-40.0
8.6
2009-10
35.9
4.7
0.6
1.0
-12.7
7.4
2010-11
-7.4
35.2
26.0
23.1
34.2
34.6
2011-12
9.3
-0.7
5.1
2.5
1.3
6.0
2012-13
-0.1
-35.7
13.9
-7.1
111.4
10.2
P2013-14
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
18.2
P2014-15
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.5
P2015-16
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2016-17
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2017-18
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2018-19
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2019-20
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2020-21
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2021-22
-0.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2022-23
-0.1
35.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
12.5
P2023-24
-0.1
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
12.5
P2024-25
-0.1
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
12.5
P2025-26
-0.1
1.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2026-27
-0.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2027-28
-0.1
1.1
1.0
0.0
0.0
12.6
P2028-29
-0.1
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2029-30
-0.1
1.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2030-31
-0.1
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0
12.7
P2031-32
-0.1
0.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
12.8
P2032-33
-0.1
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.0
12.8
P2033-34
-0.1
0.8
0.7
0.0
0.0
12.9
P2034-35
-0.1
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.0
12.9
Items
76


MGS ($
Ttrans($
OffTrans($
bln)
bln)
bln)
2003-04
12.8
8.8
-25.6
2004-05
21.8
14.6
-39.3
2005-06
12.6
26.8
237.8
2006-07
16.5
20.5
-22.4
2007-08
25.4
30.1
30.9
2008-09
3.7
19.9
-43.3
2009-10
5.7
11.5
76.4
2010-11
50.3
8.0
-18.9
2011-12
3.4
9.0
2.9
2012-13
1.4
12.3
9.0
P2013-14
18.6
9.6
-39.0
P2014-15
12.8
10.0
10.0
P2015-16
12.8
10.0
10.0
P2016-17
12.9
10.0
10.0
P2017-18
12.9
10.0
10.0
P2018-19
12.9
10.0
10.0
P2019-20
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2020-21
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2021-22
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2022-23
12.7
10.0
10.0
P2023-24
12.8
10.0
10.0
P2024-25
12.8
10.0
10.0
P2025-26
12.8
10.0
10.0
P2026-27
12.9
10.0
10.0
P2027-28
12.9
10.0
10.0
P2028-29
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2029-30
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2030-31
13.0
10.0
10.0
P2031-32
13.1
10.0
10.0
P2032-33
13.1
10.0
10.0
P2033-34
13.1
10.0
10.0
P2034-35
13.2
10.0
10.0
Items
77

78

Annex-4
Macroeconomic Variables As
Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices
79

80

Table-4.1: Macroeconomic Variables As Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices (%)

Items
POP (Mln) GDPCstMP
Agr
Mining
Manuf
Utility
2003-04
100.0
22.1
1.1
15.5
1.5
2004-05
100.0
21.4
1.1
15.8
1.6
2005-06
100.0
21.0
1.1
16.4
1.6
2006-07
100.0
20.7
1.1
17.0
1.5
2007-08
100.0
20.1
1.2
17.1
1.5
2008-09
100.0
19.8
1.2
17.3
1.5
2009-10
100.0
19.6
1.2
17.3
1.5
2010-11
100.0
19.3
1.2
17.8
1.5
2011-12
100.0
18.8
1.2
18.3
1.6
2012-13
100.0
18.1
1.3
18.9
1.7
P2013-14
100.0
17.7
1.3
19.2
1.7
P2014-15
100.0
17.4
1.3
19.5
1.7
P2015-16
100.0
17.0
1.4
19.7
1.7
P2016-17
100.0
16.6
1.4
20.0
1.7
P2017-18
100.0
16.3
1.4
20.3
1.7
P2018-19
100.0
15.9
1.4
20.6
1.7
P2019-20
100.0
15.6
1.4
20.9
1.7
P2020-21
100.0
15.3
1.5
21.1
1.7
P2021-22
100.0
14.9
1.5
21.4
1.7
P2022-23
100.0
14.6
1.5
21.7
1.7
P2023-24
100.0
14.2
1.5
22.0
1.7
P2024-25
100.0
13.9
1.6
22.3
1.7
P2025-26
100.0
13.5
1.6
22.6
1.7
P2026-27
100.0
13.2
1.6
22.9
1.7
P2027-28
100.0
12.9
1.6
23.2
1.7
P2028-29
100.0
12.6
1.7
23.5
1.7
P2029-30
100.0
12.2
1.7
23.7
1.6
P2030-31
100.0
11.9
1.7
24.0
1.6
P2031-32
100.0
11.6
1.7
24.3
1.6
P2032-33
100.0
11.3
1.7
24.6
1.6
P2033-34
100.0
11.0
1.8
24.8
1.6
P2034-35
100.0
10.7
1.8
25.1
1.6
81


Items
Const
Trade
Trans
Finance
PubAdm
Others
2003-04
8.5
13.4
9.4
1.6
2.5
20.3
2004-05
8.7
13.5
9.6
1.6
2.6
20.1
2005-06
8.8
13.6
9.7
1.7
2.6
19.8
2006-07
8.8
13.8
9.8
1.7
2.7
19.6
2007-08
8.8
13.8
10.1
1.7
2.7
19.4
2008-09
8.8
13.9
10.3
1.8
2.7
19.3
2009-10
8.8
13.9
10.4
1.9
2.7
19.2
2010-11
8.8
13.8
10.3
1.9
2.8
19.0
2011-12
8.9
13.8
10.4
2.0
2.8
18.8
2012-13
9.1
14.3
10.4
2.1
2.8
18.0
P2013-14
9.1
14.4
10.6
2.2
2.8
17.7
P2014-15
9.2
14.4
10.8
2.2
2.8
17.5
P2015-16
9.3
14.5
11.0
2.3
2.8
17.2
P2016-17
9.4
14.6
11.1
2.4
2.9
16.9
P2017-18
9.5
14.6
11.3
2.5
2.9
16.6
P2018-19
9.5
14.7
11.5
2.6
2.9
16.3
P2019-20
9.6
14.7
11.7
2.7
2.9
16.1
P2020-21
9.7
14.8
11.8
2.8
2.9
15.8
P2021-22
9.7
14.8
12.0
2.8
3.0
15.5
P2022-23
9.8
14.9
12.2
2.9
3.0
15.2
P2023-24
9.9
15.0
12.4
3.0
3.0
14.9
P2024-25
10.0
15.1
12.5
3.1
3.0
14.6
P2025-26
10.1
15.1
12.7
3.2
3.0
14.3
P2026-27
10.1
15.2
12.9
3.3
3.0
14.0
P2027-28
10.2
15.3
13.0
3.5
3.0
13.7
P2028-29
10.3
15.3
13.2
3.6
3.0
13.4
P2029-30
10.3
15.4
13.4
3.7
3.0
13.1
P2030-31
10.4
15.5
13.5
3.8
3.0
12.8
P2031-32
10.4
15.5
13.7
3.9
3.0
12.5
P2032-33
10.5
15.6
13.8
4.0
3.0
12.2
P2033-34
10.6
15.6
14.0
4.1
3.0
11.9
P2034-35
10.6
15.6
14.2
4.3
3.0
11.6
82

Table-4.3: Macroeconomic Variables As

Items
IndTax
NFI
2003-04
4.1
5.3
2004-05
4.1
5.1
2005-06
3.7
6.5
2006-07
3.4
7.5
2007-08
3.6
8.9
2008-09
3.5
9.1
2009-10
3.4
9.3
2010-11
3.5
9.1
2011-12
3.4
9.7
2012-13
3.4
10.4
P2013-14
3.3
10.8
P2014-15
3.2
11.3
P2015-16
3.1
11.7
P2016-17
3.0
12.1
P2017-18
3.0
12.6
P2018-19
2.9
13.1
P2019-20
2.8
13.5
P2020-21
2.7
14.0
P2021-22
2.6
14.6
P2022-23
2.5
14.8
P2023-24
2.4
15.0
P2024-25
2.3
15.3
P2025-26
2.2
15.5
P2026-27
2.1
15.7
P2027-28
2.0
16.0
P2028-29
2.0
16.2
P2029-30
1.9
16.4
P2030-31
1.8
16.7
P2031-32
1.7
16.9
P2032-33
1.6
17.1
P2033-34
1.6
17.3
P2034-35
1.5
17.6
Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices (%)

GNI
GDPCstMP CPI(95/96)
GDPDF
105.3
100.0
105.1
100.0
106.5
100.0
107.5
100.0
108.9
100.0
109.1
100.0
109.3
100.0
109.1
100.0
109.7
100.0
110.4
100.0
110.8
100.0
111.3
100.0
111.7
100.0
112.1
100.0
112.6
100.0
113.1
100.0
113.5
100.0
114.0
100.0
114.6
100.0
114.8
100.0
115.0
100.0
115.3
100.0
115.5
100.0
115.7
100.0
116.0
100.0
116.2
100.0
116.4
100.0
116.7
100.0
116.9
100.0
117.1
100.0
117.3
100.0
117.6
100.0
83


Items
EndExRTK/ AveExRTK/ GDPCurMP
PVTC
GOVC
GFCF
$
$
2003-04
100.0
74.9
5.5
24.0
2004-05
100.0
74.4
5.5
24.5
2005-06
100.0
74.2
5.5
24.7
2006-07
100.0
74.1
5.5
24.5
2007-08
100.0
74.4
5.3
24.2
2008-09
100.0
74.6
5.3
24.4
2009-10
100.0
74.5
5.4
24.4
2010-11
100.0
74.9
5.8
25.2
2011-12
100.0
75.2
5.6
26.5
2012-13
100.0
75.1
5.6
26.8
P2013-14
100.0
75.1
5.6
27.0
P2014-15
100.0
75.2
5.6
27.3
P2015-16
100.0
75.3
5.7
27.6
P2016-17
100.0
75.3
5.7
27.8
P2017-18
100.0
75.4
5.7
28.1
P2018-19
100.0
75.5
5.7
28.4
P2019-20
100.0
75.6
5.7
28.7
P2020-21
100.0
75.6
5.7
28.9
P2021-22
100.0
75.7
5.7
29.2
P2022-23
100.0
75.5
5.7
29.4
P2023-24
100.0
75.3
5.7
29.5
P2024-25
100.0
75.1
5.6
29.6
P2025-26
100.0
74.9
5.6
29.8
P2026-27
100.0
74.6
5.6
29.9
P2027-28
100.0
74.3
5.6
30.0
P2028-29
100.0
74.0
5.5
30.1
P2029-30
100.0
73.7
5.5
30.2
P2030-31
100.0
73.3
5.4
30.3
P2031-32
100.0
73.0
5.4
30.3
P2032-33
100.0
72.6
5.4
30.4
P2033-34
100.0
72.2
5.3
30.5
P2034-35
100.0
71.8
5.3
30.5
84


XGS
MGS
Stocks
NFI
GNICuMP
GDCF
Items
2003-04
20.5
15.1
-9.5
5.9
10.5
13.7
2004-05
19.4
23.3
153.1
7.9
11.2
13.7
2005-06
28.3
22.8
7.3
43.7
13.7
12.7
2006-07
18.5
20.2
71.0
29.7
14.6
12.8
2007-08
18.8
24.4
85.5
37.2
17.0
14.3
2008-09
7.6
4.0
-29.1
15.5
12.9
13.4
2009-10
7.0
6.4
-8.8
15.6
13.2
13.1
2010-11
42.8
45.0
42.4
12.2
14.5
18.2
2011-12
16.6
17.1
-32.4
23.1
15.9
21.6
2012-13
18.1
18.3
33.1
16.2
13.4
14.0
P2013-14
19.0
19.3
20.7
16.6
14.4
15.3
P2014-15
19.0
19.3
23.0
16.6
14.4
15.3
P2015-16
19.0
19.3
23.5
16.6
14.5
15.4
P2016-17
19.0
19.3
24.0
16.6
14.5
15.4
P2017-18
19.1
19.4
24.4
16.6
14.5
15.4
P2018-19
19.1
19.4
24.6
16.6
14.6
15.5
P2019-20
19.2
19.5
24.9
16.6
14.6
15.5
P2020-21
19.2
19.5
25.0
16.6
14.6
15.5
P2021-22
19.2
19.5
25.1
16.6
14.7
15.5
P2022-23
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
13.9
14.6
P2023-24
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
14.0
14.6
P2024-25
16.4
16.5
24.5
13.4
14.0
14.6
P2025-26
16.4
16.5
24.4
13.4
14.0
14.6
P2026-27
16.4
16.5
24.2
13.4
14.0
14.6
P2027-28
16.4
16.5
24.0
13.4
14.1
14.6
P2028-29
16.4
16.5
23.8
13.4
14.1
14.6
P2029-30
16.4
16.5
23.6
13.4
14.1
14.6
P2030-31
16.4
16.5
23.3
13.4
14.2
14.6
P2031-32
16.4
16.5
23.1
13.4
14.2
14.6
P2032-33
16.4
16.5
22.9
13.4
14.2
14.6
P2033-34
16.4
16.5
22.6
13.4
14.3
14.6
P2034-35
16.4
16.5
22.4
13.4
14.3
14.6
85


Items
GNS
GDS
NFI
NCT PCGDP(TK PCGNI(TK)
)
2003-04
25.4
19.5
5.3
0.6
2004-05
25.8
20.0
5.1
0.7
2005-06
27.7
20.2
6.5
0.9
2006-07
28.7
20.4
7.5
0.8
2007-08
30.2
20.3
8.9
1.0
2008-09
29.6
20.1
9.1
0.4
2009-10
30.0
20.1
9.3
0.6
2010-11
28.8
19.3
9.1
0.4
2011-12
29.2
19.3
9.7
0.2
2012-13
29.5
19.3
10.0
0.2
P2013-14
29.6
19.3
10.2
0.2
P2014-15
29.7
19.2
10.4
0.1
P2015-16
29.9
19.1
10.6
0.1
P2016-17
30.0
19.0
10.9
0.1
P2017-18
30.1
19.0
11.1
0.1
P2018-19
30.2
18.9
11.3
0.1
P2019-20
30.4
18.8
11.5
0.1
P2020-21
30.5
18.7
11.7
0.0
P2021-22
30.7
18.7
12.0
0.0
P2022-23
30.5
18.6
11.9
0.0
P2023-24
30.3
18.5
11.8
0.0
P2024-25
30.2
18.3
11.8
0.0
P2025-26
30.0
18.2
11.7
0.0
P2026-27
29.8
18.1
11.6
0.0
P2027-28
29.6
18.0
11.6
0.0
P2028-29
29.4
17.9
11.5
0.0
P2029-30
29.2
17.7
11.4
0.0
P2030-31
28.9
17.6
11.3
0.0
P2031-32
28.7
17.5
11.2
0.0
P2032-33
28.5
17.3
11.2
0.0
P2033-34
28.2
17.2
11.1
0.0
P2034-35
28.0
17.0
11.0
0.0
86


Items
M1(BlnTK)
Currency
DemDep QuasiMone
MoneySup FornAssets
y
2003-04
9.1
4.7
4.4
29.8
39.0
4.9
2004-05
9.5
5.0
4.6
31.3
40.9
4.9
2005-06
10.3
5.5
4.8
33.2
43.5
5.2
2006-07
10.5
5.6
4.9
34.2
44.8
6.9
2007-08
10.9
6.0
4.9
34.7
45.6
6.8
2008-09
10.8
5.9
4.9
37.4
48.2
7.7
2009-10
12.7
6.6
6.0
39.6
52.3
9.7
2010-11
12.9
6.9
6.1
42.4
55.3
8.9
2011-12
12.0
6.4
5.6
44.4
56.3
8.6
2012-13
12.4
6.6
5.8
46.4
58.8
9.3
P2013-14
12.8
6.9
6.0
48.6
61.4
10.1
P2014-15
13.3
7.1
6.2
50.9
64.2
10.9
P2015-16
13.8
7.4
6.4
53.4
67.1
11.7
P2016-17
14.2
7.6
6.6
55.9
70.2
12.7
P2017-18
14.7
7.9
6.8
58.6
73.4
13.7
P2018-19
15.3
8.2
7.0
61.5
76.8
14.8
P2019-20
15.8
8.5
7.3
64.5
80.3
16.0
P2020-21
16.4
8.8
7.5
67.6
84.0
17.2
P2021-22
17.0
9.2
7.8
70.9
87.8
18.6
P2022-23
17.3
9.4
7.9
74.0
91.3
19.6
P2023-24
17.7
9.6
8.1
77.2
94.9
20.6
P2024-25
18.1
9.9
8.2
80.6
98.7
21.6
P2025-26
18.5
10.1
8.4
84.1
102.5
22.7
P2026-27
18.8
10.3
8.5
87.7
106.5
23.9
P2027-28
19.2
10.6
8.6
91.4
110.6
25.0
P2028-29
19.6
10.8
8.8
95.3
114.9
26.3
P2029-30
20.0
11.1
8.9
99.3
119.3
27.6
P2030-31
20.4
11.3
9.1
103.4
123.8
28.9
P2031-32
20.8
11.6
9.2
107.7
128.5
30.3
P2032-33
21.2
11.9
9.3
112.1
133.3
31.8
P2033-34
21.6
12.1
9.5
116.7
138.3
33.3
P2034-35
22.0
12.4
9.6
121.4
143.4
34.9
87


Items
DomCredit Credit-GOV Credit -PVT
CreditOther REV&G(BlT
Others
items
K)
2003-04
38.1
6.6
28.8
2.7
-4.0
11.0
2004-05
40.1
6.9
30.2
3.0
-4.2
10.9
2005-06
43.1
7.6
31.8
3.6
-4.8
11.2
2006-07
43.5
7.6
32.2
3.7
-5.6
10.7
2007-08
45.6
8.6
34.8
2.1
-6.8
11.8
2008-09
46.9
9.5
35.4
2.0
-6.4
11.2
2009-10
49.0
7.8
39.0
2.2
-6.4
11.9
2010-11
54.4
9.2
42.8
2.4
-8.0
12.3
2011-12
56.5
10.0
44.4
2.0
-8.7
13.2
2012-13
58.9
10.4
46.6
1.9
-9.5
13.2
P2013-14
61.8
10.9
49.1
1.8
-10.4
14.0
P2014-15
64.8
11.4
51.7
1.7
-11.5
14.4
P2015-16
68.0
11.9
54.5
1.6
-12.6
14.7
P2016-17
71.4
12.5
57.4
1.5
-13.9
15.1
P2017-18
75.0
13.0
60.5
1.4
-15.3
15.4
P2018-19
78.8
13.7
63.8
1.4
-16.9
15.8
P2019-20
82.8
14.3
67.3
1.3
-18.5
16.2
P2020-21
87.1
15.0
70.9
1.2
-20.4
16.6
P2021-22
91.6
15.7
74.8
1.1
-22.4
17.0
P2022-23
95.3
16.0
78.2
1.0
-23.5
17.4
P2023-24
99.1
16.4
81.8
0.9
-24.7
17.8
P2024-25
103.1
16.7
85.5
0.8
-26.0
18.3
P2025-26
107.2
17.1
89.4
0.8
-27.4
18.7
P2026-27
111.5
17.4
93.4
0.7
-28.8
19.2
P2027-28
115.9
17.8
97.5
0.6
-30.3
19.6
P2028-29
120.5
18.2
101.8
0.6
-31.9
20.1
P2029-30
125.3
18.5
106.3
0.5
-33.6
20.6
P2030-31
130.3
18.9
110.9
0.5
-35.4
21.1
P2031-32
135.4
19.3
115.7
0.4
-37.3
21.6
P2032-33
140.7
19.7
120.7
0.4
-39.2
22.1
P2033-34
146.2
20.0
125.8
0.3
-41.3
22.7
P2034-35
151.9
20.4
131.2
0.3
-43.4
23.2
88


Items
REV
CurREV
Tax
Nontax
CapREC
Grants
2003-04
10.5
10.5
8.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
2004-05
10.6
10.6
8.6
2.0
0.0
0.3
2005-06
10.7
10.7
8.7
2.0
0.0
0.5
2006-07
10.5
10.5
8.3
2.2
0.0
0.2
2007-08
11.4
11.4
8.8
2.6
0.0
0.5
2008-09
10.8
10.8
9.0
1.8
0.0
0.3
2009-10
11.4
11.4
9.0
2.4
0.0
0.5
2010-11
12.0
12.0
10.0
2.0
0.0
0.3
2011-12
12.8
12.8
10.5
2.3
0.0
0.4
2012-13
13.0
13.0
10.7
2.3
0.0
0.6
P2013-14
13.4
13.4
11.0
2.4
0.0
0.7
P2014-15
13.7
13.7
11.3
2.4
0.0
0.7
P2015-16
14.0
14.0
11.6
2.4
0.0
0.7
P2016-17
14.3
14.3
11.9
2.4
0.0
0.7
P2017-18
14.7
14.7
12.2
2.5
0.0
0.8
P2018-19
15.0
15.0
12.5
2.5
0.0
0.8
P2019-20
15.4
15.4
12.9
2.5
0.0
0.8
P2020-21
15.8
15.8
13.2
2.6
0.0
0.8
P2021-22
16.2
16.2
13.6
2.6
0.0
0.9
P2022-23
16.5
16.5
13.9
2.6
0.0
0.9
P2023-24
16.9
16.9
14.3
2.7
0.0
0.9
P2024-25
17.3
17.3
14.6
2.7
0.0
0.9
P2025-26
17.8
17.8
15.0
2.7
0.0
1.0
P2026-27
18.2
18.2
15.4
2.8
0.0
1.0
P2027-28
18.6
18.6
15.8
2.8
0.0
1.0
P2028-29
19.1
19.1
16.2
2.8
0.0
1.0
P2029-30
19.5
19.5
16.7
2.9
0.0
1.1
P2030-31
20.0
20.0
17.1
2.9
0.0
1.1
P2031-32
20.5
20.5
17.5
3.0
0.0
1.1
P2032-33
21.0
21.0
18.0
3.0
0.0
1.1
P2033-34
21.5
21.5
18.5
3.0
0.0
1.2
P2034-35
22.0
22.0
19.0
3.1
0.0
1.2
89

Table-4.10: Macroeconomic Variables As

Items
EXP&NL
EXP
2003-04
13.3
13.3
2004-05
14.0
14.0
2005-06
14.0
14.0
2006-07
13.6
13.6
2007-08
16.6
16.6
2008-09
14.5
14.5
2009-10
14.6
14.6
2010-11
16.1
16.1
2011-12
16.3
16.3
2012-13
16.1
16.8
P2013-14
17.2
17.2
P2014-15
17.6
17.6
P2015-16
18.0
18.0
P2016-17
18.5
18.5
P2017-18
18.9
18.9
P2018-19
19.4
19.4
P2019-20
19.8
19.8
P2020-21
20.3
20.3
P2021-22
20.8
20.8
P2022-23
21.0
21.0
P2023-24
21.1
21.1
P2024-25
21.3
21.3
P2025-26
21.4
21.4
P2026-27
21.5
21.5
P2027-28
21.7
21.7
P2028-29
21.8
21.8
P2029-30
22.0
22.0
P2030-31
22.1
22.1
P2031-32
22.3
22.3
P2032-33
22.4
22.4
P2033-34
22.6
22.6
P2034-35
22.8
22.8
Percentage of GDP at Current Market Prices (%)

CurEXP
CapEXP
CAPBAL
REVBAL
8.5
4.8
-4.8
2.5
9.0
5.0
-5.0
1.9
8.8
5.2
-5.2
2.4
9.6
4.0
-4.0
1.1
10.5
6.1
-6.1
1.3
10.2
4.3
-4.3
1.0
10.5
4.1
-4.1
1.3
10.4
5.7
-5.7
1.9
11.0
5.3
-5.3
2.2
11.3
5.5
-4.8
1.4
11.7
5.5
-5.5
1.7
12.0
5.6
-5.6
1.7
12.4
5.7
-5.7
1.7
12.7
5.7
-5.7
1.6
13.1
5.8
-5.8
1.6
13.5
5.9
-5.9
1.5
13.9
5.9
-5.9
1.5
14.3
6.0
-6.0
1.5
14.7
6.1
-6.1
1.4
14.8
6.2
-6.1
1.7
14.9
6.2
-6.2
2.1
15.0
6.3
-6.3
2.4
15.0
6.4
-6.4
2.7
15.1
6.4
-6.4
3.1
15.2
6.5
-6.5
3.5
15.2
6.6
-6.6
3.8
15.3
6.7
-6.7
4.2
15.4
6.8
-6.8
4.6
15.5
6.8
-6.8
5.0
15.5
6.9
-6.9
5.5
15.6
7.0
-7.0
5.9
15.7
7.1
-7.1
6.4
90

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35
BUDBAL
-2.3
-3.1
-2.7
-2.8
-4.8
-3.3
-2.8
-3.8
-3.2
-2.9
-3.2
-3.2
-3.3
-3.4
-3.5
-3.6
-3.6
-3.7
-3.8
-3.5
-3.3
-3.0
-2.7
-2.4
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-1.0
-0.7
-0.3
0.1
0.5
DOMBR
2.2
1.8
2.2
1.9
2.6
2.3
2.3
3.8
3.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2
FRBR
1.6
1.7
2.2
1.1
1.6
1.7
2.2
0.3
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2
91
CASH
-1.4
-0.4
-1.6
-0.2
0.6
-0.6
-1.7
-0.3
-1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CurAC
(ML$)
0.3
-0.9
1.3
1.4
0.9
2.8
3.5
-1.5
-0.4
2.0
1.1
0.7
0.3
-0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-1.3
-1.7
-2.1
-1.7
-1.4
-1.0
-0.7
-0.4
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
Bal-G&S
-5.7
-6.9
-6.3
-6.9
-8.6
-7.1
-6.4
-11.2
-10.6
-8.2
-8.4
-8.6
-8.7
-8.9
-9.1
-9.2
-9.4
-9.6
-9.8
-9.2
-8.7
-8.1
-7.6
-7.0
-6.5
-5.9
-5.4
-4.8
-4.2
-3.7
-3.1
-2.5


Items
XGS
MGS Income, net
Transfers
Official
Private
2003-04
14.9
20.6
-0.7
6.6
0.1
6.5
2004-05
16.1
23.0
-1.1
7.1
0.1
7.0
2005-06
19.0
25.3
-1.1
8.8
0.2
8.6
2006-07
19.8
26.7
-1.3
9.6
0.1
9.4
2007-08
20.2
28.8
-1.2
10.7
0.2
10.6
2008-09
19.5
26.6
-1.5
11.4
0.1
11.4
2009-10
18.6
25.0
-1.5
11.4
0.1
11.2
2010-11
22.5
33.7
-1.3
11.0
0.1
10.9
2011-12
23.0
33.6
-1.3
11.6
0.1
11.5
2012-13
23.7
31.9
-1.9
12.1
0.1
12.0
P2013-14
24.0
32.4
-1.9
11.4
0.0
11.4
P2014-15
24.2
32.8
-2.0
11.3
0.0
11.2
P2015-16
24.5
33.2
-2.1
11.1
0.0
11.1
P2016-17
24.7
33.6
-2.1
11.0
0.0
10.9
P2017-18
24.9
34.0
-2.2
10.8
0.0
10.8
P2018-19
25.2
34.4
-2.3
10.7
0.0
10.6
P2019-20
25.4
34.9
-2.3
10.5
0.0
10.5
P2020-21
25.7
35.3
-2.4
10.4
0.0
10.3
P2021-22
25.9
35.7
-2.5
10.2
0.0
10.2
P2022-23
26.2
35.4
-2.6
10.1
0.0
10.0
P2023-24
26.4
35.1
-2.6
9.9
0.0
9.9
P2024-25
26.7
34.8
-2.7
9.8
0.0
9.8
P2025-26
27.0
34.5
-2.8
9.7
0.0
9.6
P2026-27
27.2
34.3
-2.9
9.6
0.0
9.5
P2027-28
27.5
34.0
-3.0
9.4
0.0
9.4
P2028-29
27.8
33.7
-3.1
9.3
0.0
9.2
P2029-30
28.0
33.4
-3.2
9.2
0.0
9.1
P2030-31
28.3
33.1
-3.3
9.0
0.0
9.0
P2031-32
28.6
32.8
-3.4
8.9
0.0
8.8
P2032-33
28.9
32.5
-3.5
8.7
0.0
8.7
P2033-34
29.2
32.3
-3.6
8.6
0.0
8.6
P2034-35
29.5
32.0
-3.7
8.5
0.0
8.4
92


Items
Remittance
CapA/C
Fin A/C
FDI
Portfolio
Other Inv
s
2003-04
6.0
0.3
-0.1
0.7
0.0
-0.6
2004-05
6.4
0.3
1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
2005-06
7.7
0.6
-0.2
1.2
0.1
-1.5
2006-07
8.7
0.7
1.1
1.1
0.2
-0.2
2007-08
9.9
0.7
-0.6
0.9
0.1
-1.6
2008-09
10.8
0.5
-0.9
1.1
-0.2
-1.8
2009-10
10.9
0.5
-0.6
0.9
-0.1
-1.4
2010-11
10.4
0.6
-1.7
0.7
0.0
-2.4
2011-12
11.1
0.4
-0.8
1.0
0.2
-1.9
2012-13
11.6
0.4
-0.8
1.0
0.2
-1.8
P2013-14
11.1
0.4
-0.5
1.0
0.2
-1.6
P2014-15
11.0
0.4
-0.3
1.0
0.2
-1.5
P2015-16
11.0
0.4
-0.2
1.0
0.2
-1.5
P2016-17
10.9
0.4
-0.2
1.0
0.2
-1.4
P2017-18
10.9
0.4
-0.1
1.0
0.2
-1.3
P2018-19
10.8
0.4
0.0
1.1
0.2
-1.2
P2019-20
10.8
0.4
0.1
1.1
0.2
-1.1
P2020-21
10.7
0.4
0.2
1.1
0.2
-1.1
P2021-22
10.7
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.2
-1.0
P2022-23
10.6
0.4
0.3
1.1
0.2
-1.0
P2023-24
10.6
0.4
0.4
1.1
0.2
-0.9
P2024-25
10.5
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.2
-0.8
P2025-26
10.5
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.2
-0.8
P2026-27
10.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.2
-0.7
P2027-28
10.4
0.3
0.6
1.1
0.2
-0.7
P2028-29
10.3
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.2
-0.7
P2029-30
10.3
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.2
-0.6
P2030-31
10.2
0.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
-0.6
P2031-32
10.2
0.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
-0.6
P2032-33
10.1
0.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
-0.5
P2033-34
10.0
0.3
0.9
1.2
0.2
-0.5
P2034-35
10.0
0.3
0.9
1.2
0.2
-0.5
93


Items
Errors
BOPBAL
Reserves
GDPMP(BL Reserve(M
Gold
$)
L$)
2003-04
-15.8
-79.0
-79.0
8.2
2004-05
90.0
-60.8
-60.8
3.0
2005-06
122.9
404.5
18.9
2.6
2006-07
-3.5
341.7
45.7
10.4
2007-08
-29.5
-77.8
21.1
16.2
2008-09
-103.3
521.8
21.5
12.3
2009-10
-4600.0
39.2
43.9
12.3
2010-11
-63.5
-122.9
1.5
11.5
2011-12
147.1
-175.3
-5.0
3.7
2012-13
2.0
-48.8
47.8
7.0
P2013-14
2.0
167.5
4.4
16.6
P2014-15
2.0
2.0
4.3
11.4
P2015-16
2.0
2.0
4.2
11.5
P2016-17
2.0
2.0
4.1
11.5
P2017-18
2.0
2.0
4.0
11.5
P2018-19
2.0
2.0
4.0
11.6
P2019-20
2.0
2.0
3.9
11.6
P2020-21
2.0
2.0
3.8
11.6
P2021-22
2.0
2.0
3.8
11.6
P2022-23
2.0
2.0
3.6
11.4
P2023-24
2.0
2.0
3.5
11.4
P2024-25
2.0
2.0
3.5
11.5
P2025-26
2.0
2.0
3.4
11.5
P2026-27
2.0
2.0
3.4
11.5
P2027-28
2.0
2.0
3.3
11.6
P2028-29
2.0
2.0
3.3
11.6
P2029-30
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.6
P2030-31
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.6
P2031-32
2.0
2.0
3.2
11.7
P2032-33
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.7
P2033-34
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.7
P2034-35
2.0
2.0
3.1
11.8
94


Items
FE
IMFRes
SDRs
ExtDT(ML$)
LT Debt
ST Debt
2003-04
34.8
33.0
1.3
2004-05
30.6
28.8
1.1
2005-06
32.4
29.7
1.9
2006-07
31.2
28.4
2.0
2007-08
28.8
25.5
2.4
2008-09
27.6
23.7
2.2
2009-10
25.7
21.3
2.9
2010-11
24.2
20.0
3.1
2011-12
24.0
20.2
3.2
2012-13
23.1
19.3
3.3
P2013-14
20.6
16.9
3.1
P2014-15
19.1
15.6
3.1
P2015-16
17.8
14.4
3.1
P2016-17
16.7
13.3
3.0
P2017-18
15.6
12.3
3.0
P2018-19
14.7
11.4
2.9
P2019-20
13.8
10.6
2.9
P2020-21
13.0
9.8
2.8
P2021-22
12.3
9.2
2.8
P2022-23
11.6
8.6
2.8
P2023-24
11.1
8.1
2.7
P2024-25
10.5
7.6
2.7
P2025-26
10.1
7.2
2.7
P2026-27
9.6
6.8
2.6
P2027-28
9.2
6.4
2.6
P2028-29
8.9
6.1
2.6
P2029-30
8.5
5.8
2.5
P2030-31
8.2
5.6
2.5
P2031-32
7.9
5.3
2.4
P2032-33
7.6
5.1
2.4
P2033-34
7.4
4.9
2.4
P2034-35
7.2
4.7
2.3
95

Items
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
P2013-14
P2014-15
P2015-16
P2016-17
P2017-18
P2018-19
P2019-20
P2020-21
P2021-22
P2022-23
P2023-24
P2024-25
P2025-26
P2026-27
P2027-28
P2028-29
P2029-30
P2030-31
P2031-32
P2032-33
P2033-34
P2034-35
IMF credit
Ext DT/GNI
%
LTDT/debt
%
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
96
STDT/debt
%
DTSER/XG
S%
Debt
Service
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3


Items
Amortizatio
Int on LTD
Int on STD Interest (%) Maturity(Yr)
Grace
n
2003-04
0.8
0.3
0.0
2004-05
0.9
0.3
0.1
2005-06
0.8
0.3
0.1
2006-07
1.1
0.3
0.1
2007-08
0.8
0.3
0.0
2008-09
0.8
0.2
0.0
2009-10
0.7
0.2
0.0
2010-11
0.9
0.2
0.0
2011-12
0.9
0.2
0.0
2012-13
0.7
0.2
0.1
P2013-14
0.6
0.2
0.1
P2014-15
0.6
0.2
0.1
P2015-16
0.5
0.2
0.1
P2016-17
0.5
0.1
0.1
P2017-18
0.5
0.1
0.1
P2018-19
0.4
0.1
0.1
P2019-20
0.4
0.1
0.1
P2020-21
0.4
0.1
0.1
P2021-22
0.4
0.1
0.1
P2022-23
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2023-24
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2024-25
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2025-26
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2026-27
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2027-28
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2028-29
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2029-30
0.3
0.1
0.1
P2030-31
0.2
0.1
0.1
P2031-32
0.2
0.1
0.1
P2032-33
0.2
0.1
0.1
P2033-34
0.2
0.1
0.1
P2034-35
0.2
0.1
0.1
97


Items
MGS ($
Total Trans
OffTrans($
bln)
($ bln)
bln)
2003-04
6.6
0.1
2004-05
7.1
0.1
2005-06
8.8
0.2
2006-07
9.6
0.1
2007-08
10.7
0.2
2008-09
11.4
0.1
2009-10
11.4
0.1
2010-11
11.0
0.1
2011-12
11.6
0.1
2012-13
12.1
0.1
P2013-14
11.4
0.0
P2014-15
11.3
0.0
P2015-16
11.1
0.0
P2016-17
11.0
0.0
P2017-18
10.8
0.0
P2018-19
10.7
0.0
P2019-20
10.5
0.0
P2020-21
10.4
0.0
P2021-22
10.2
0.0
P2022-23
10.1
0.0
P2023-24
9.9
0.0
P2024-25
9.8
0.0
P2025-26
9.7
0.0
P2026-27
9.6
0.0
P2027-28
9.4
0.0
P2028-29
9.3
0.0
P2029-30
9.2
0.0
P2030-31
9.0
0.0
P2031-32
8.9
0.0
P2032-33
8.7
0.0
P2033-34
8.6
0.0
P2034-35
8.5
0.0
98

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An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Bangladesh- Tarun Das

PDP Australia Pty. Ltd

Draft for Discussion and Consultation with Stakeholders

AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

DR. TARUN DAS, TECHNICAL ADVISER (DEBT MANAGEMENT

DR. ZIAUL ABEDIN, NATIONAL CONSULTANT (DEBT MANAGEMENT)

UPDATED 01 JUNE 2014

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

The present Draft Report entitled An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic

Mr. Muslim Chowdhury

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Mr. Md. A R N Sakib

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING SPREADSHEET

Foreword by Mr. Muslim Chowdhury, Component Director (C1 / C2)

2. Data base and basic presumptions for the projections

4. Major Macroeconomic Assumptions and Projections

5. Development Prospects and Challenges

6. Basic Inputs for Debt sustainability Analysis (DSA)

Annex-1: Variables and identities used in the model- descriptions and

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

FY2035) Ratios of Variables to GDP

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

AN OPERATIONAL CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTING

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Real Sector (National Accounts)

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

TB = Merchandise trade balance = Merchandise Exports Merchandise Imports

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

The Macroeconomic Balance Equations stand as follow:

Equating (4) and (5) we get:

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Box-1.1: Basic Structures of Macroeconomic Sub-models and Inter-linkages

Deposit Money Banks

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

1.3 Inter-Sectoral Financial Transactions Matrix

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

2 Data Base and Basic Presumptions for Projections

2.1 Data Base on National Accounts

The list of variables with descriptions and units is presented in Annex-1.

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

3.3 Projections of GDP for the years 2014 to 2035

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

On the basis of assumptions as described in section 2.2 above, various macro

Annual growth rate of real GDP (%)

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Goods & services Balance (% of GDP)

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

5. Development Prospects and Challenges

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

8. Inputs for Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Table-6.1 BASE DATA and Medium/Long Term Projections for

Table-6.2 Medium/Long Term Projections for Major Macroeconomic

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for

Table-6.3 Medium/Long Term Projections for Major Macroeconomic

Table-6.4 Medium/Long Term Projections for Major Macroeconomic

An Operational Consistent Macroeconomic Accounting Spreadsheet Model for