WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W00A20, doi:10.

1029/2007WR006783, 2009

Sensitivity of the water resources of Rio Yaqui Basin,

Mexico, to agriculture extensification
under multiscale climate conditions
Francisco Munoz-Arriola,1,2 Roni Avissar,3 Chunmei Zhu,4 and Dennis P. Lettenmaier4
Received 14 January 2008; revised 30 April 2009; accepted 20 July 2009; published 11 November 2009.

[1] The Yaqui River Basin (YRB) is the most important wheat-producing region in

Mexico. The main source of irrigation water in the Yaqui basin (over 80%) is surface
water. Crop production sustainability is therefore closely linked to YRB streamflow and
potentially to its sensitivity to climate variability and land use changes. We study the
sensitivity of streamflow to land cover change resulting primarily from conversion of
natural vegetation to unirrigated agriculture within the basin. We also examine how this
sensitivity is influenced by midscale (North American Monsoon) and large-scale
(El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) climate
regimes. Streamflow simulations using the variable Infiltration Capacity Model were
performed in which current land use was altered incrementally within the three major
subbasins of the YRB. In general, we found that the sensitivity of basin runoff to ENSOand PDO-related variations in precipitation was much greater than to land coverrelated
changes and was highest during winter. Furthermore, climate and land cover runoff
sensitivities appear to be related; in El Nino (generally wet) years the sensitivity of
streamflow to land cover change can be four times higher than in La Nina (generally dry)
years. The sensitivity of streamflow to PDO phase was smaller. Streamflow sensitivities to
climate were the highest when PDO and ENSO were in phase. We conclude that climate
variability exerts stronger controls on the surface hydrology than does land use change
associated with the extensification of agriculture. For instance, flows in El Nino versus
La Nina years differed by 76% in winter and 16% in summer, whereas maximum monthly
(winter) flow changes were at most 4%.
Citation: Munoz-Arriola, F., R. Avissar, C. Zhu, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2009), Sensitivity of the water resources of Rio Yaqui Basin,
Mexico, to agriculture extensification under multiscale climate conditions, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A20, doi:10.1029/2007WR006783.

1. Introduction
[2] Land use change has been increasingly recognized
over the last thirty years as a significant driver of changes in
the land surface water and energy balances. Projects such as
the land use and land cover change (LUCC) program
element of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program
(IGBP), have studied the dynamics of land use changes as
well as their impact on climate at multiple scales [Lambin
et al., 2006; Mahmood et al., 2006]. The expansion of
cropland produced by clearing the natural land cover is
known as agricultural extensification and has been a major
form of global land use change at different spatial scales and
during different stages of human cultural evolution [Tilman,
1999; Lambin et al., 2003]. For instance, Goldewijk and
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University,
Durham, North Carolina, USA.
2
Now at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University
of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
3
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of
Miami, Miami, Florida, USA.
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

0043-1397/09/2007WR006783

Ramankutty [2004] report a 50% net increase in agricultural

areas globally in the 20th century. In consequence, the
hydrospheres sensitivity to land use changes is closely
linked to agricultural extensification and deforestation,
which impact the land-atmosphere-ocean water and energy
fluxes at multiple spatial scales. At the regional scale, land
use changes can modify atmospheric mesoscale circulations and redistribute precipitation [Avissar and Liu, 1996;
Weaver and Avissar, 2001; Baidya Roy and Avissar, 2002;
Ramos da Silva and Avissar, 2006; Chhabra and Geist,
2006]; while at the global scale, the impacts can alter
climate through teleconnections [Werth and Avissar, 2005].
With respect to the land surface hydrological cycle, land
use changes alter thermal and dynamic properties of the
atmospheric boundary layer through the enhancement or
inhibition of evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics
[Milly et al., 2005, DOdorico and Porporato, 2006]. The
impacts of land use change on surface hydrology produced
by agricultural extensification and accompanying deforestation have been examined through a combination of
hydrological modeling and retrospective data analysis
[Lorup et al., 1998; Braud et al., 2001; Weber et al., 2001;
De Roo et al., 2001; Fohrer et al., 2001; Klocking and
Haberlandt, 2002; Wegehenkel, 2002; Kokkonen and
Jakeman, 2002; Bronstert and Bardossy, 2003; Bronstert,

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Figure 1. Yaqui River Basin, including channel network, major subbasins, and stream gauge locations.
2004; Twine et al., 2004; Legesse et al., 2003; Cosandey
et al., 2005; Fennell et al., 2006; Claessens et al., 2006;
Zhang and Schilling, 2006].
[3] In surface hydrology, the response of a watersheds
runoff to precipitation is related both to infiltration, which
controls the fast response of a watershed immediately
following precipitation events, and to deep soil moisture
and/or groundwater, which controls the slow response.
Infiltration depends on near-surface soil moisture, and
hence on antecedent evapotranspiration (ET) prior to a
storm event. Runoff is also generated between storms by
slow runoff response, or base flow, which depends on the
accumulated infiltration, as well as antecedent ET from
deep soils (e.g., by trees). Long-term observational studies
have shown increased streamflow following deforestation,
mostly as a result of reduced evapotranspiration, but also
because of changes in infiltration resulting from altered soil
hydraulic properties [De Roo et al., 2001; Klocking and
Haberlandt, 2002].
[4] In southwestern North America (SWN) (see Figure 1)
land use changes in recent decades have resulted from
increasing population (southwestern United States) and
agricultural development (northwestern Mexico). Our
hypothesis is that the impact of agricultural extensification
on the water resources of SWN may be modulated by climate
variability. The North American Monsoon (NAM), which
occurs between about June and September, is responsible for
50 80% of the annual precipitation in SWN. Similarly,
midscale and large-scale climate phenomena, specifically
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), affect the precipitation regimes
in the region, producing wetter or drier monsoon seasons
[Castro et al., 2001; Higgins and Shi, 2001; Englehart and
Douglas, 2004, 2006]. For example, Lau et al. [2004] and
Englehart and Douglas [2006] mentioned that positive PDO
is associated with above normal precipitation during the
monsoon season, while Mantua et al. [1997] generalize that
PDO is positively correlated with winter precipitation over
the northern Mexico. The Yaqui River Basin (YRB) lies
within the domain of influence of NAM (see Figure 1). Its

surface hydrology is strongly affected by seasonal and

interannual precipitation variability, especially as related to
NAM. These patterns define the spatial distribution of runoff
within the basin, which in turn controls YRB streamflow,
some 90% of which is consumed for irrigation and other
human use. Hence, changes in the streamflow of the Yaqui
River directly affect crop yield from the irrigated portion of
the basin, most of which is in the lower portion of the basin
downstream of the Oviachic Dam (see Figure 1). The extent
to which changes upstream of Oviachic could affect the
sustainability of major agricultural developments located
downstream, in the Yaqui Valley, is unclear.
[5] It should be noted that while the irrigated portion of
the basin constitutes only about 3% of its total drainage
area, this irrigated region is critical to the socioeconomic
health not only of the region, but of the entire country
[Naylor et al., 2001; Luers et al., 2003]. Nonetheless, land
cover change has occurred over a much larger portion of
YRB, much of which is unirrigated, and it is the sensitivity
of YRB streamflow to land cover change in this much larger
area that is investigated in this paper. For instance, Instituto
Nacional de Estadstica Geografa e Informatica (INEGI)
(http://www.inegi.gob.mx/inegi/default.aspx?s = geo) suggests that potential changes in current vegetation due to the
extensive agricultural extensification may affect around
10% of the Yaqui basin, and much of this area is located
upstream of the Oviachic Dam.
[6] The interaction of climate variability over a range of
temporal scales from interannual (NAM, essentially interannual variability in the onset and strength of the monsoon),
and multiyear to decadal (ENSO, multiple years and PDO,
multidecadal) with the effects of vegetation change are not
well known. The objective of this study is to evaluate the
sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes in the YRB
under different climatological regimes. To accomplish this
objective, we apply the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)
macroscale hydrology model, which accounts for the
exchanges of water and energy using an explicit representation of the subgrid distribution of vegetation. The structure
of VIC is well suited for examination of the effects of

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Figure 2. Streamflow observations (dashed line) versus

modeled performance (solid line) for the Angostura (0.69,
0.48), Paso Nacori (0.75, 0.77), and Oviachic (0.75, 0.83)
basins in m3 s1; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for the
calibration and the validation is given in parentheses. The
calibration process was based on monthly simulated and
observed values for the calibration period of January 1968
to December 1978 and the validation period of January
1979 to December 1984.

vegetation change on river basin hydrologic response, and it

has been previously applied for this purpose in the Columbia
River basin [Matheussen et al., 2000; Haddeland et al., 2002;
VanShaar et al., 2002] as well as over most of the northern
hemisphere [Haddeland et al., 2007]. We ran VIC over
YRB for the 50 year period 1949 1999, a period of
sufficient length to allow examination of the influence of
NAM, ENSO, and PDO variability on the basins hydrologic response as related to long-term vegetation change.

2. Methodology
[7] The VIC model [Liang et al., 1994, 1996] contains an
explicit representation of the effects of vegetation on land-

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atmosphere energy and moisture fluxes. We used the model

to evaluate possible impacts of gradual increases in (unirrigated) crop areas by running a series of historical simulations.
We used a 50 year (1949 1999) gridded forcing data set for
the NAM region at 1/8 latitude-longitude spatial resolution produced by Zhu and Lettenmaier [2007]. It includes
3-hourly precipitation, surface wind, surface air temperature, and downward and longwave radiation, all of which
are required to force the VIC model. The gridded data are
based on daily observations of precipitation interpolated to
3-hourly intervals from the station archive of Servicio
Meteorologico Nacional. The data were gridded using
methods described by Maurer et al. [2002]. It is worth
noting that the 3-hourly precipitation was disaggregated
from daily data by assuming a constant average precipitation rate throughout the day. This might be expected to
pose problems for simulations in northwestern Mexico,
where the diurnal cycle of precipitation plays an important
role in the surface hydrology [Gochis et al., 2004].
However, as shown by Maurer et al. [2002] the runoff
predicted by VIC at regional and monthly scales shows
only weak sensitivity to different methods of disaggregating
daily precipitation (the diurnal cycle of solar radiation is far
more important, and is the main reason for running the
model at a subdaily time step). Wind speed data were taken
from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis [Kalnay et al., 1996].
Surface air temperature data were gridded from observations; humidity and downward shortwave and longwave
radiation were derived from the daily temperature range and
daily mean temperature following methods summarized by
Maurer et al. [2002]. Soil features were taken from the 5 min
resolution Food and Agriculture Organization data set
[Food and Agriculture (FAO), 1995]. The associated soil
characteristics were obtained using the formulations of
Cosby et al. [1984], Rawls et al. [1998], and Reynolds et
al. [2000]. Vegetation parameters were taken from the
University of Maryland global land cover data set [Hansen
et al., 2000].
[8] The model was run in full energy balance mode as
in the work by Maurer et al. [2002], meaning that the
components of the hydrological cycle were produced every
3 h by iteratively solving the surface energy balance for an
effective surface temperature. Model calibration was performed manually, focusing on the following parameters of
the models three-layer soil column: the soil moisture capacity curve shape parameter (bi), the maximum base flow rate of
the third soil layer (dsm), the fraction of the maximum thirdlayer soil moisture at which base flow becomes nonlinear
(ws), and the thickness of the second soil layer (s2). bi
determines infiltration and the three other parameters define
base flow (slow runoff) response and the water holding
capacity of the two lower soil layers. The routing model
of Lohmann et al. [1998a, 1998b] was used to route the
runoff and base flow from individual grid cells through
the basins channel network and to simulate daily streamflow at three gauges within the basin: Angostura, Paso
Nacori, and Oviachic (see Figure 1). Streamflow observations were obtained from Banco Nacional de Datos de
Aguas Superficiales [2004]. Figure 2 shows VIC model
performance relative to streamflow observations using the
modified parameters for a 10 year calibration and 5 year
validation periods. Aside from a positive bias for peak flows

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Table 1. El Nino and La Nina Periods From 1949 to 1999 Based

on the BEST Indexa
La Nina

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2250 km2, is irrigated, and most of this area is below the

Oviachic station.

El Nino

4. Climatic Regime Identification

02/1950 12/1950
8/1951 10/1951
7/1955 6/1956
8/1956
5/1957 4/1958
8/1963 11/1963
8/1964
6/1965 3/1966
1/1969 3/1969
8/1971 10/1971
6/1972 2/1973
5/1975 2/1976
9/1977 12/1977
5/1982 6/1983
10/1986 12/1987
7/1988 5/1989
6/1991 6/1992
3/1993 7/1993
9/1994 2/1995
5/1997 4/1998
8/1998 2/1999
12/1999
a
The gaps between El Nino and La Nina periods represent the neutral
periods. The dates given in bold are cold PDO (1949 1977), and the other
periods correspond to warm PDO (1978 1999).

at Oviachic, the model plausibly reproduces observations at

the three stations.

3. Site Description
[9] The Yaqui River Basin (73,000 km2) is located
between 34N and 32N in the Mexican states of Sonora
and Chihuahua and part of Arizona in the United States
(see Figure 1). From east to west, the prevalent slope varies
from strong to weak as the river flows from its headwaters to
the Gulf of California. The Yaqui River (main stem length
397 km) is formed by the confluence of the Bavispe (374 km)
and Aros-Papigochi (125 km) rivers, both of which originate in the Sierra Madre Occidental. Downstream it merges
with the Moctezuma River. Twenty hydrometric stations are
located along the Yaqui River system. The Angostura, Paso
Nacori, and Oviachic stations (see Figure 1) were selected
for use in this study based on features such as at most
modest effects of upstream water management, outflow
location, and continuity and reliability of the streamflow
data record. The Angostura station is located on the Rio
Bavispe above the Lazaro Cardenas Dam. This station
accounts for the natural flows drained from portions of
southern Arizona, Sonora, and Chihuahua. Paso Nacori is
located on the Aros Papagochic River above its confluence
with the main stem Yaqui River. Flows at both Paso Nacori
and Angostura are only modestly affected by upstream
management. The Oviachic station is located above the
Alvaro Obregon Dam. This station measures discharge from
the entire YRB drainage area below two large reservoirs and
about 20 smaller reservoirs. The discharge record for this
station has been naturalized based on work by Emerson
[2005] to account for upstream storage and diversions. As
noted above, about 3% of the YRB drainage area, or

[10] The effects of ENSO were evaluated through the

use of the bivariate ENSO time series (BEST) index,
which is based on the SST anomalies (El Nino 3.4) and
sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin in
the East and West Pacific coasts [Smith and Sardeshmukh,
2000]. The PDO index was defined as the first principal
component of the North Pacific sea surface temperature on a
monthly basis following Mantua et al. [1997]. PDO has a
warm phase, which is characterized by negative SST
anomalies in the northwestern Pacific and corresponding
positive SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and a
cold phase with the opposite conditions. For consistency we
use the BEST and PDO indices cited above for purposes of
forming the composites described below.
[11] The main patterns of climate variability were defined
as three ENSO phases: El Nino (EN), La Nina (LN), and
neutral (N) years, each for warm and cold PDO phases. The
effects of land use changes on streamflow were evaluated
through formation of streamflow composites during these
periods (Table 1).
[12] Streamflow composites were formed for monsoon
and winter periods and for each combination of ENSO and
PDO phases. The monsoon period was defined based on
typical monsoon onset and end dates in Mexico portion of
the basin (JJAS) [Douglas et al., 1993; Higgins et al.,
2003]. Winter months were defined as DJFM.
[13] The streamflow composites were normalized by
drainage area, for monsoon and winter months, in each
climate category. EN and LN were based on the BEST
index as defined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000]. NonEN and -LN years were considered to be ENSO neutral (N)
as shown in Table 1. Cold and warm PDO periods were
taken to be 1949 1977 and 1978 1999, respectively,
following Mantua et al. [1997]. Changes in streamflow
resulting from climate variability were tested using the rank
sum test [Berry, 1996] at 5% significance level (two-sided
test).

5. Land Use Change Scenarios

[14] The land use change scenarios consisted of seven
simulations of gradually increasing increments of (unirrigated) crop area. As noted above, our focus is on changes in
vegetation and streamflow in the unirrigated areas upstream
of Angostura, Paso Nacori, and Oviachic. Above Angostura, land cover historically has been dominated by grass
and shrubland, and above Paso Nacori by forest (see
Figure 3a). The basin upstream of Oviachic but downstream of Angostura and Paso Nacori has both land cover
types, but in different proportions than above Angostura
and Paso Nacori.
[15] Figure 3a shows the predominant current vegetation
types (as of 1992 1993 [Hansen et al., 2000]) in the YRB.
We specified eight scenarios corresponding to original (current land use) and the replacement of the original vegetation
by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, and 25% crop-type vegetation above
Oviachic, using the INEGI (http://www.inegi.gob.mx/inegi/
default.aspx?s=geo) (based on INEGI [2001]) data set as a

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Figure 3. (a) Current land use fraction and (b) distribution of the different vegetation types and
distribution of the crop fraction (1, evergreen narrow leaf; 2, evergreen broadleaf; 3, deciduous narrow
leaf; 4, deciduous broadleaf; 5, mixed forest; 6, woodland; 7, wooded grassland; 8, closed shrubland; 9,
open shrubland; 10, grass; 11, crop; 12, bare soil; 13, urban surface).

baseline. Each grid cell in VIC was allowed to have a

maximum of 12 different vegetation types plus bare soil.
Starting with the original scenario, each vegetation type
represented in a grid cell (except bare soil) was reduced by
the percentages mentioned above, and these transitions were
assumed to be to unirrigated cropland. Figure 3b shows the
distribution of the main vegetation types and the distribution
of crop fraction for each grid cell for current conditions and
after increments of 10% and 25% of crop surfaces. For
simplicity, we focus on the increment of 10% cropland. In
Angostura, Paso Nacori, and Oviachic this increment cor-

responds to (new) crop fractions of 11%, 12%, and 13%,

respectively. Figure 3b also shows that in some grid cells
upstream of Oviachic crop fractions can be as high as 40%
for our highest crop fraction scenario.

6. Results
6.1. Multiscale Climatology and Agricultural
Extensification
[16] Agriculture extensification and deforestation in
Mexico are closely related activities and define some of

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Figure 4. Climatological monthly values (mean for all climate categories) for (a) precipitation
(in mm/month), (b) normalized streamflow (in mm/month), and (c) streamflow (in 106 m3/month).
(d) Angostura normalized streamflow difference between current and altered conditions for crop
increments of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, and 10% (mm/month). (e) Same as Figure 4d but for Paso Nacori.
(f) Same as Figure 4d but for Oviachic.

the major changes in land use over northwestern Mexico.

FAO [2007] has determined annual deforestation rates over
Mexico of 0.51% per year. These rates contrast with roughly
equilibrium conditions in Canada and afforestation in the
United States. Over northwestern Mexico, INEGI (http://
www.inegi.gob.mx/inegi/default.aspx?s=geo) estimated
that land use changes caused by agricultural extensification
upstream of Oviachic have affected about 10% of the YRB.
Such changes are mainly due to the development of unirrigated agricultural areas. Some studies have identified
land use changes in basins of northwestern Mexico due to
invasive species, agriculture, and urbanization, affecting the
stability of watersheds [Kepner et al., 2000]. In the following
sections we evaluate how these land use transitions might
affect runoff for different climatic regimes. For simplicity
we specify vegetation changes in terms of crop increments
of 10%, which correspond roughly to the magnitudes of
extensification of agricultural practices reported by INEGI
(http://www.inegi.gob.mx/inegi/default.aspx?s=geo). We

evaluate streamflow changes due to a range of increments

in the crop surface fraction under different climate regimes
(monsoon/winter, ENSO, and PDO).
6.1.1. Genesis and Evolution of NAM
[17] Douglas et al. [1993], Adams and Comrie [1997],
and Higgins et al. [1997, 2003] have identified the genesis
and evolution of the NAM by explaining the spatial
variability of monsoon onset and the fraction of annual
precipitation that falls in summer. Both characteristics vary
among the subbasins of the YRB. For example, Figure 4a
shows that precipitation in Angostura is 1 2 mm/d lower
than in Paso Nacori during the summer but during winter,
precipitation values are similar in all subbasins. A similar
seasonal dependence is visible in the variability of streamflow across subbasins; Angostura summer (normalized)
flows are substantially lower than those of Paso Nacori and
Oviachic but winter differences among subbasins are less
pronounced (see Figures 4b and 4c). These patterns also
coincide with the subregions defined by Comrie and Glenn

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Table 2. Vegetation Parameter VPa

Angostura

Paso Nacori

Oviachic

Monsoon
Current
10%

5.1
5.4 (0.33)

Current
10%

3.3
3.2 (2.27)

6.4
7.1 (1.55)

5.9
6.2 (1.17)

4.1
4.6 (1.06)

3.4
3.8 (0.31)

Winter

a
VP is defined as the product of the vegetation fraction and LAI for
monsoon and winter months. Percentage of change between current and
modified conditions streamflows are given in parentheses.

[1998], who identified four different spatial patterns of

precipitation in the NAM region: two of their subregions
encompass Paso Nacori and southern portion of Oviachic in
the south and Angostura in the north, respectively.
[18] The model-predicted effect of agricultural extensification on streamflow resulting from prescribed changes to
the current spatial distribution of vegetation as described in
section 5 is shown in Figures 4d 4f. Streamflow differences between current and modified land use conditions (for
increments of 10% in crop surface) in Angostura, Paso
Nacori, and Oviachic show two main patterns of variation
throughout the year (Figures 4d 4f). The first pattern of
variability occurs during the monsoon months and consists
of increases of streamflow up to 0.13 mm/month in response
to increased crop area. The second pattern of streamflow
variability is observed during winter, and consists of
decreases in streamflow of as much as 0.4 mm/month in
response to increased crop area. These patterns are also
observed in Paso Nacori and Oviachic but with different
durations and streamflow magnitudes. In Paso Nacori, the
predicted signature of land cover change in monsoon
months is stronger than in winter (Figure 4e). Increments
in the crop areas result in streamflow increases of up to
0.64 mm/month in July. In winter, Paso Nacori streamflow
reductions resulting from agriculture extensification are
considerably smaller than those observed in Angostura. In
fact, Paso Nacoris streamflow increases extend from the
monsoon months up to March of the following year. Paso
Nacoris streamflow reductions last only three months and
are almost a factor of three less than those in Angostura.
Simulated land cover change effects above Oviachic exhibit
responses that are intermediate between those of Angostura
and Paso Nacori (Figure 4f). Oviachics summer streamflow
increases by up to 0.4 mm/month between June and February,
with a maximum in July. Oviachics winter streamflow
decreases by up to 0.2 mm/month, with a duration of four
months and a maximum in March.
[19] The surface hydrological response in the YRB to
increments in crop areas is different among the subbasins.
For example, some of the changes in simulated streamflow
highlight the controls exerted by vegetation and soil physics. In general, changes in streamflow generation are attributable to the large amplitude of the seasonal crop LAI
variation in comparison to that of the natural vegetation that
it replaces. In subbasins containing substantial forest or
grass cover (e.g., Paso Nacori and Oviachic; see Figure 3),
crop LAI may be comparable to that of the natural vegetation. Increasing crop area in these subbasins tends to
decrease winter ET and increase winter streamflows as a

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result. In subbasins such as Angostura that contain less

forest cover and more grass and shrub cover, crop LAI is
comparable to or greater than that of the natural vegetation
even in winter, and therefore increasing crop area tends to
increase winter ET and decrease winter streamflows. Winter
precipitation and soil properties may also contribute to the
predicted increase in streamflow. This distinction between
controls was described by Yildiz and Barros [2007] over a
midlatitude basin, which was controlled alternatively by
vegetation during summer and by soil physics during spring.
[20] Table 2 shows the weighted average of vegetation
fraction and LAI (the effective spatial average LAI) during
the monsoon and winter months for the subbasins of the
YRB, under current and agriculturally extensified conditions. The change in this parameter, which we term the
vegetation parameter (VP), can be used to understand the
effects of agriculture extensification relative to current
vegetation at the basin level. During monsoon months for
all subbasins, the modified land use VP was higher than the
current land use VP, which was reflected in reduced streamflow generation. In winter, for Angostura and Oviachic
basins, modified land use VP increased and streamflow
decreased, however in the Angostura basin, despite a small
reduction in VP, there was a substantial increase in streamflow. The magnitude of the increase, which at first glance
appears to be inconsistent with the magnitude of the
vegetation change, has to do with spatial variations in soil
properties and precipitation; the areas within the basin
where there is the greatest increase in LAI are also the
areas that are disproportionately responsible for runoff
generation within the basin, and therefore the effect of
changes in VP basinwide tends to be amplified.
6.1.2. ENSO
[21] The interaction of ENSO and land cover change in
the YRB provides some insights into the relative effects of
large-scale phenomena as contrasted with local to regional
land use changes. The multiannual variability of simulated
streamflow over the YRB is generally consistent with precipitation variability elsewhere in the NAM region as
reported by Higgins et al. [1999], Castro et al. [2001],
and Gutzler [2004]. The largest streamflows in the Angostura, Paso Nacori, and Oviachic subbasins in EN conditions
occur during winter while the largest streamflow values in
LN conditions occur during summer as shown by the
composites in Figure 5. In Angostura, the streamflow differences between EN and LN (for all years) were on average
80 mm during the winter and 9 mm during the summer;
neutral year streamflows were always intermediate in value
between the EN and LN streamflows. In contrast, streamflow differences between EN and LN above Paso Nacori
were on average 25 mm during winter and close to zero
during the monsoon. In this particular case, positive differences between EN and LN were observed during the cold
PDO phase and negative differences during the warm PDO
phase (both statistically significant), as discussed in detail in
section 6.1.3. As in Angostura, in the Oviachic basin EN
streamflows were less than for LN during the winter and the
opposite is true during the monsoon with average differences of 33 mm and 10 mm, respectively. Monsoon
season streamflow differences between EN and LN were
both statistically significant during the warm phase of PDO
in Angostura and Oviachic. This difference suggests a

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Figure 5. Normalized streamflow composites (mm/month)

for the period 1949 1999 in (top) Angostura, (middle) Paso
Nacori, and (bottom) Oviachic subbasins. LN, La Nina; EN,
El Nino; N, neutral; C, cold PDO; W, warm PDO.

triggering effect of warm PDO on ENSO precipitation

patterns as suggested by Englehart and Douglas [2002]
and Gutzler [2004]. Gutzler [2004] identified a synergistic
effect between the warm PDO and ENSO through the
increase in the correlation between EN 3.4 SST anomalies
and precipitation anomalies. ENSO events and monsoon
precipitation are negatively correlated under warm PDO
[Englehart and Douglas, 2002], also shown by marked and
mild influences of ENSO on the streamflow during winter
and monsoon seasons, respectively.
[22] The sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes for
monsoon and winter months as modulated by ENSO is

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shown in Figure 6. The results are for 10% increments in

crop surfaces; positive differences indicate that increments
in crop surfaces produce an increase in streamflow, while
negative differences indicate streamflow decreases.
[23] Across all subbasins and all climate categories,
streamflow changes due to increasing crop area are less
positive in winter than in monsoon months due to the
temporal variability of LAI (Figure 6). Streamflow changes
in winter during EN are the least positive or even negative,
across all basins (e.g., 1.51 mm in Angostura) due to the
changes in LAI and combined with high precipitation.
Streamflow generation may result from the influence of
changing infiltration capacities, which result from increasing precipitation excess and are regulated by evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage. In Angostura, streamflow
changes are substantially more negative than for the other
two basins for all climate categories. This is also due to the
predominance of grass cover, which in the extensification
scenario is replaced by crops with higher LAI, which during
winter produce more ET, as discussed in section 6.1.1. As a
result in Angostura, the reduction of streamflow caused by
agricultural extensification is most pronounced during EN,
with a major impact during winter. Hence, the main impacts
occur during the period of recharge, which provides water
for downstream irrigation during the following crop season.
Analogous responses were observed by Lorup et al. [1998]
in semiarid catchments, where increments of urban and
crop surfaces in areas originally dominated by woodland/
grassland reduced runoff production. On the other hand,
Paso Nacoris major changes occur during the monsoon
(differences >0.56 mm). In general, streamflow differences
between EN and LN were more pronounced during winter
(>0.3 mm) than during the monsoon (<0.2 mm).
6.1.3. Long-Term Influences
[24] Streamflow differences between cold PDO and warm
PDO phases are larger during winter than during the
monsoon (Figure 6). In fact, Angostura streamflow differences between cold PDO and warm PDO tend to be larger
during EN (38.7 and 71 mm for cold and warm PDO) than
during LN (8.6 and 18.7 mm for cold and warm PDO).
Because Angostura is located in the northernmost portion of
the YRB, these results are consistent with the warm PDOrelated high precipitation over northern Mexico during the
winter (also reported by Mantua et al. [1997]). Over the
southern subbasins, streamflow differences associated with
PDO are smaller and in the case of Paso Nacori, higher
winter streamflow values occur during the cold PDO under
both EN and LN conditions. Brito-Castillo et al. [2003]
also identified the influence of the PDO on the streamflows
over the NAM, using a tree ring reconstructed streamflow
data set and assessing streamflow records over the river
basins draining to the Gulf of California (not including the
YRB).
[25] In the YRB winter streamflow differences were
always more negative under warm PDO for Angostura
and Oviachic, while Paso Nacori maintained the same
positive differences in both summer and winter. Generally,
the PDO is recognized as a climate phenomenon that
primarily influences winter climate, however, the PDO
may influence some components of monsoon physics, such
as surface temperature contrasts between land and sea,
which could furthermore influence the strength of the

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Figure 6. (top) Composite mean streamflow and (bottom) streamflow changes between current
vegetation and 10% more crop area in mm per season (winter is DJFM and monsoon is JJAS) for La Nina
(LN), El Nino (EN), and ENSO neutral (N) under the influence of cold PDO (C) and warm PDO (W) for
(a and d) Angostura, (b and e) Paso Nacori, and (c and f) Oviachic.
monsoon as suggested by Englehart and Douglas [2002,
2006] and Gutzler [2004].
[26] In addition to the simulations reported above, we
performed additional sensitivity tests to evaluate the effects
of replacement of forested areas by crops (not shown here).
The surface hydrological responses were of the same order
of magnitude in the winter and monsoon seasons as those
discussed above. In general, the amplification of surface
hydrologic response to the warm PDO in all subbasins
during summer showed more homogeneous and higher
responses than for cold PDO. In winter, similar hydrologic
responses occurred under the influence of LN during the
same warm PDO. However, during the cold PDO and under
the influence of EN, streamflow differences were higher
than for warm PDO.
6.2. Water Balance
[27] Streamflow is an integrator of hydroclimatological
forcings at the basin scale [Sivapalan et al., 2003]. The
sensitivity of streamflow to agricultural extensification under
the influence of NAM, ENSO, and PDO was evaluated as a
function of the changes in the components of the water cycle
in the YRB subbasins. The surface water balance is
DS
PREB
Dt

where DS is the change in the water storage in a determined

area during the period Dt, P is precipitation, R is (surface)
runoff, E is evapotranspiration, and B is base flow.

[28] Abdulla et al. [1996], Metcalfe and Buttle [1999],

Laio et al. [2001], and Porporato et al. [2004] have used the
water balance approach to show the effects of environmental changes on the hydrological cycle. The analysis of the
components of the water balance allows identification of
where the effect of land use changes is more important and
how it contributes to streamflow generation.
[29] In addition to differences in vegetation cover, differences in soil characteristics play an important (but generally
lesser) role in the subbasin responses to climate variability.
For example, soil moisture is affected by soil permeability,
which influences the temporal variability of base flow
originating in the deepest VIC soil layer (layer 3). Figure 7
shows that decrease in base flow as a result of increasing
crop area are larger (0.008 mm) in Angostura than in the
central part of the YRB (0.003 mm). This spatial distribution of changes follows the spatial distribution of values of
the VIC maximum base flow parameter dsm among the
different subbasins (Angostura > Oviachic > Paso Nacori)
and implies differences in permeability in the soils of these
subbasins. Accordingly, moisture in the bottom soil layer
follows the reverse pattern (Paso Nacori > Oviachic >
Angostura). According to Yildiz and Barros [2007] soil
physics exert major control on surface hydrology during
the dry season and on ET during the wet season. Also,
DOdorico and Porporato [2006] note that in arid domains,
evapotranspiration can be affected to a higher degree by soil
moisture than by the evaporative demand (i.e., these systems are moisture limited). In the YRB, the dominant

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Figure 7. Water balance components under current conditions and changes in water balance (obtained
from the differences between altered conditions (crop increment of 10%) and current conditions). O,
Oviachic; P, Paso Nacori; A, Angostura.

(agricultural) vegetation that we substitute for the native

vegetation can exert important controls on soil moisture.
Angostura is characterized by permeable soils and a variety
of vegetation types including grassland, shrubland, and
woodland [INEGI, 1993]. In the central part of YRB (including Paso Nacori and Oviachic), soils are characterized by
middle to low permeability, and shrubs and grasses dominate vegetation. Toward the northwest, the permeability of
the soils increases and the vegetation is characterized by
Sinaloan deciduous forest, with intrusions of tropical elements [INEGI, 1993; Brown, 1994]. Nonetheless, the ET
differences between modified and current conditions show
similar responses. The base flow and soil moisture temporal
changes are higher in Angostura than any other subbasin
during winter (Figure 7). This produces a pronounced
reduction in runoff and base flow that is reflected in the
negative streamflow changes (see Figures 4d 4f).
[30] Figure 8 shows that an increase in crop area for
the Angostura subbasin could exert a strong impact on its
surface hydrology during winter, where higher reductions in
base flow and soil moisture occurred. During the summer,
the highly wooded areas of Paso Nacori and Oviachic are
mostly affected by the agricultural extensification. In these
areas, the increase in runoff is mostly driven by the reduction
in ET and the increase in soil moisture. Comparing the
changes in hydrological variables after modifying exclusively wooded areas (not shown) with those obtained by the
experiment described above, we observe that base flow and
soil moisture are least affected during the winter and
monsoon seasons in Angostura than in any other subbasin.
This could be due to the reduced presence of wooded areas
in the domain. However, in Paso Nacori and Oviachic these
changes produced different spatiotemporal responses for
base flow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and to a lesser
extent runoff. During the monsoon, base flow, soil moisture,
and evapotranspiration were reduced, while runoff increased. During winter, the opposite occurred, but runoff

increased slightly. Consequently, the sensitivity of streamflow changes in Angostura depends on which current land
use type is converted to cropland.

7. Conclusions
[31] We evaluated the sensitivity of streamflow in the
major subbasins of YRB to land use change resulting from
conversion of natural vegetation to unirrigated agriculture,
and to the influence of midscale (NAM) and large-scale
(El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal
Oscillation PDO)) climate regimes. Our analysis of the
climatic variability of streamflow showed that during monsoon and winter streamflow differences vary according to
the influence of the ENSO and PDO phenomena. Winter
streamflow is most strongly affected by EN (much higher in
EN than LN years) and in subbasins such as the Angostura,
was higher than monsoon streamflow. Monsoon streamflow
was influenced to a much lesser extent by ENSO (generally
slightly lower in EN than LN years), however, it was also
observed that monsoon streamflow in Paso Nacori decreased
under the influence of LN during the cold PDO.
[32] Overall, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate
variations dwarfed the sensitivity associated with land
cover. For instance, the difference between winter flows
in El Nino versus La Nina years was 76%, and for summer
flows was 16%, in contrast to maximum monthly (winter)
flow changes of 5% attributable to the largest land cover
transition alternative tested. The highest sensitivity of runoff
to agriculture extensification was found during winter.
Furthermore, climate and land cover runoff sensitivities
appear to be related; in El Nino (generally wet) years the
sensitivity of streamflow to land cover change can be four
times higher than in La Nina (generally dry) years. The
sensitivity of streamflow to the PDO phase was smaller.
Streamflow sensitivities to climate were highest when PDO
and ENSO were in phase, e.g., during the 1970s, 1980s, and
1990s.

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Figure 8. Spatial distribution of water balance components for monsoon months (mn) and nonmonsoon
months (nm) under current (C) and 10% altered (10%) conditions.
[33] In general, the positive anomaly of precipitation
and streamflow increased the soil moisture content and
reduced the soil moisture drought typical of the winter
months. Wet soil moisture conditions in the subsurface
favor evapotranspiration, producing soil moisture deficits
that contribute to decreases in streamflow. Consequently,

streamflow sensitivities to agricultural extensification in the

YRB under different climatic conditions can be summarized
by two mechanisms.
[34] The first mechanism results from the response of
the spatial variability in streamflow to agricultural extensification. The predominant vegetation type under current

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conditions determines the magnitude and sign of the change

in streamflow production. Specifically, under the dominant
grass/shrub current conditions, an increase in crop surfaces
results in a reduction in streamflow, as occurs in Angostura.
Otherwise, streamflow increases due to the dominance of
woodland in the current distribution of vegetation (Paso
Nacori and Oviachic). The second mechanism results from
the controls exerted by soil properties as evidenced during
dry periods. This mechanism is related to the redistribution
of subsurface moisture, and the controls of soil physics. In
the model results, this is evidenced in the variability of base
flow and soil moisture, and their role in reducing runoff
generation in the northernmost portion of the YRB.
[35] The spatial distribution of vegetation and its changes
affect water resources over the subbasins of the YRB to
different extents. Given the importance of winter streamflows in refilling the water storages for agricultural activities, the sensitivities in Angostura are of special interest. On
the other hand, further work is needed to explore the longterm impact of land use changes on soil moisture patterns
and its impact on drought and flooding in the region.
[36] Acknowledgments. This publication was funded in part by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under grants
NA04OAR4310078 and NA050AR4310014 to Duke University, by the
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologa, and by the NOAA Climate
Program Offices Climate Prediction Program for the Americas under
cooperative agreement NA060AR4310060 with the University of Washington, via the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
(JISAO). This is JISAO contribution 1762.

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R. Avissar, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science,

University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 331491031, USA. (ravissar@rsmas.miami.edu)
D. P. Lettenmaier, F. Munoz-Arriola, and C. Zhu, Department of Civil
and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352700,
Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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