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WATER

RESOURCES

RESEARCH,

VOL. 35, NO. 11, PAGES 3327-3341, NOVEMBER

1999

Analysis of long-term land subsidencenear Mexico City:


Field investigations and predictive modeling
Adrian Ortega-Guerrero
Institutefor Geology,National AutonomousUniversityof Mexico, Mexico City

David L. Rudolph and John A. Cherry


Departmentof Earth Sciences,Universityof Waterloo,Waterloo, Ontario

Abstract. The Mexico City regionhas severalflat plainsformed on exceptionallyporous


(60-90%) lacustrinedepositsoverlyinga highlyproductiveregionalaquifer.Severeland
subsidence
due to consolidationof the lacustrineaquitardcausedby aquifer exploitation
has resultedin restrictionson pumpingin the core of Mexico City. This has led to large
increasesin aquifer pumpingin the outlyinglacustrineplainswhere satellitecommunities
are rapidlyexpanding.The ChalcoBasinis one of theselacustrineareaswhere pumping
beganin the 1950sand greatlyincreasedin the 1980s.The lacustrinesequencein the
Chalcoarea is significantlythicker than anywhereelsein the Basin of Mexico averaging
100 rn and reachinga maximumthicknessof 300 m. Consequently,this area is susceptible
to the highestpotential land subsidenceeffectsas a result of groundwaterextractionof
anywherein the basin.Land subsidence
in the centralpart of the ChalcoBasinhas
increasedto 0.4 m/yr since1984 and by 1991 total subsidence
had reached8 m. The rapid
land subsidencein this area is causingthe accumulationof meteoric waters during the
rainy seasonresultingin extensivefloodingof farmland.This studyfirst demonstratesa
methodologyfor combininghydraulicdata from a network of monitoringwells,
geotechnicaldata from core samples,and a compilationof historicalinformationon land
surfaceelevationto quantifygroundwaterflow and land subsidencephenomenawithin the
rapidly subsidingChalcoBasin.Then a one-dimensionalmathematicalmodel is employed
to developpredictionsof future land subsidence
under a rangeof pumpingconditions.
The model permitsthe hydraulicpropertiesof the aquitardto vary as transientfunctions
of hydraulichead and porosity.Simulationssuggestthat under current pumpingrates,
total land subsidencein the area of thickestlacustrinesedimentwill reach 15 rn by the
year 2010. If pumpingis reducedto the extent that further declinein the potentiometric
surfaceis prevented,total maximumsubsidence
would be significantlyless,-10 m, and
the rate would nearly ceaseby 2010.
1.

Introduction

The metropolitanarea of Mexico City, with a populationof


nearly 20 million people, dependsmainly on groundwaterresourcesfor both the domesticand industrial water supply.
Much of the groundwateris obtained from an extensivedeposit of alluvial-pyroclastic
material that forms a regional,
semiconfinedaquifer underlying thick lacustrine sediments
that cover a large portion of the floor within the Basin of
Mexico (Figure 1). The lacustrineaquitardis composedprimarilyof highlycompressible
andextremelyporous(60-90%)
Quaternarysedimentscontaininga significantamountof clay
and a fairly high organicmatter content. Thin interbedsof
volcanoclastic
material are frequentlyencounteredthroughout
the lacustrinesequence.These interbedsrange from the centimetre scaleup to severalmeters in thicknessand in many
caseshave significantlateral extent. The thicker units are referred to locallyas CapasDuras or hard layers.
Mexico City is locatedalmostentirelyon the flat lacustrine
plain within the Basin and is surroundedby volcanicmounCopyright1999by the AmericanGeophysical
Union.
Paper number1999WR900148.
0043-1397/99/1999WR900148509.00

tains. The Basin is hydrologicallyclosedand as such,a quiescent seriesof interconnectedlakes occupiedthe basin floor
prior to the constructionof an artificial drainagesystemin the
late 1700s[Bribiesca,1960].Throughoutthe city, a networkof
surfacecanalscurrentlyconductsstorm runoff, alongwith domesticand industrialliquid waste,to the main drainagecanal
in the north of the city. A set of deep drainagetunnelshas
subsequentlybeen added to the northern drainage systemto
handle the increasingflow rates. The primary reasonfor the
increasingflow volumesin the drainagesystemhas been the
progressiveincreasein local groundwaterextractionrates,and
the introduction of additional water being brought into the
Basin throughpipelinesfrom distantreservoirsto handle the
increasingwater demand.
Groundwaterextractionfrom the regionalalluvial-pyroclastic aquifer beneaththe lacustrineplain startedin the last century and becameextensiveduring the 1930s[Hiriart and Marsal, 1969].The heavypumping,particularlyin the middle of the
city,causeddepressurization
and consolidationof the aquitard
[Carrillo, 1947] and as a result, extensiveland subsidencewas
documentedin downtownMexico City over severaldecades.
Indeed, the magnitudeof the subsidence
becamesoextremein
somelocations(>9 m) that severeproblemsaroserelated to

3327

3328

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

BASIN OF MEXICO

Chihuahua

SIERRA
DE/\\/

Veracruz

PACHUCA /

"'""'

f -/ '- -- ""

LIMITOF

Mexico
City
/

//.-'
J ,_ LACUSTRINE
PLAIN

/ Metropolitan
J ! Texcoco

?/ Mexico
City
t./ Plain
/!
"'...-, "
' STUDY /-....

SIERRA
DE LAS
CRUCES

"h

SITE/'-'- / ""

...../

\\\

-"J'
\ NEVADA
SIERRA

\ rN/ CHALO0
\ /

SIERRA

I
0

'"'

/-,,

BASIN

OHIOHINAUTZlN

I
20 km

Figure 1. Locationplan of studyarea showingrelative positionof the Basin of Mexico, the limit of the
surficiallacustrinesedimentsand Mexico City. [After Ortegaet al., 1993].

buildingfoundations,sewerdrainage,and transportationsystems. In order to minimize further damagefrom additional


subsidencewithin metropolitan Mexico City, many of the
downtownwells were taken out of productionand new well
fieldswere constructedon the outskirtsof the city. The most
recent well field to be added to the urban supplysystemis
locatedwithin the ChalcoBasin(Figure 1), where one of the
ancientlakesonceexistedin the southernpart of the Basinof
Mexico.

The developmentof the well field in the ChalcoBasinhas


resultedin the partial transferof the land subsidence
problems
from within metropolitanMexico City to the nearly flat agricultural plain within the ChalcoBasin.Sincethe early 1980s,
several meters of subsidence have been recorded in the center
of the Chalco Basin and the current rate of subsidence is --0.4

m/yr [Ortega,1993]. Ortegaet al. [1993] present a review of


historicaldata in conjunctionwith recenthydrogeologic
observations that shows that the land subsidence rates in the Chalco

Basin, as a result of progressiveincreasesin groundwaterextraction,have equalledor surpassed


the maximumvaluesrecordedin the downtownMexico City area.
The lacustrine sediments of the Chalco Basin are the thick-

est documentedwithin the entire Mexico City region (>300


m). Consequently,as groundwaterextractioncontinues,this
area has the potentialto sufferthe mostextensiveland subsidence anywherein the Basin of Mexico. As a result of the
recent land subsidence,elevationgradientshave changedto
sucha degreethat part of the surfacewater drainagenetwork
is no longer functionaland progressively
more of the land
surfaceis becominginundated,particularlyduring the rainy
season.Flooding has not only taken agriculturalland out of
productionbut hasalsobegunto threatenedlocalcommunities
that are expandingfrom the mountainslopesontothe plain. Of
concernin this region thereforeis the total magnitudeof the
land subsidenceand the future subsidence
rate that is likely to
resultfrom the currentgroundwaterextractionsystem.

Consideringthat the dependency


on the semiconfined
aquifer systemwithinthe Basinof Mexicowill likelyremainhighor
evenincreaseinto the future,accuratepredictionsof long-term
land subsidencephenomena will be crucial. Owing to the
highlycompressible
nature of theselacustrinesediments,however, evaluationof subsidencebehaviourhas been problematic. Previousinvestigatorshave suggestedthat conventional
consolidation
theorymaynot be applicableto the MexicoCity
aquitard[Cruikshank,1985;Rudolphand Frind, 1991;Riveraet
al., 1991]. Both local-scaleinvestigationsinvolvingonly the
upperportion of the aquitard[Rudolphand Frind, 1991] and
broad,regional-scale
modelingof the coupledaquifer/aquitard
system[Riveraet al., 1991] have illustratedthe significanceof
the nonlinear hydraulicbehavior of these sedimentsduring
consolidation.In order to make realisticpredictionsof subsidenceevolutionat a specificlocationof interest,suchasin the
Chalco Basin,for example,this nonlinearbehaviormust be
accommodated
in the analysis.In addition,a specificcombination of hydrogeologic,geotechnical,and historicalhydrologicdata mustbe assembled,
and thesedatawill be uniqueto
the local site conditions.

The currentresearchwork hastwo principleobjectives.


The
first is to developa practical,yet comprehensive
protocolfor
the evaluationof land subsidence
phenomenaat locationsinvolvinghighly compressibleaquitardssuch as those encountered within

the Basin of Mexico.

The Chalco Basin was se-

lectedas an examplefield case.Of specificinterestwill be to


prioritizeand assess
the sensitivityof the physicaldata needed
from a givensiteand to demonstratethe validityof simplifying
assumptions
that will significantly
enhancethe efficiencyof the
predictiveanalysis.Extensivereferenceto previouswork on
land subsidence issues within

the Basin of Mexico

will be

made. A summaryof the most relevant information is contained in the followingsection.


The secondmajor focusof the work is to evaluatequantitativelythe transientland subsidence
in the ChalcoBasinand

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

3329

to developpredictionsof the long-termbehavior.The hydrogeologicinvestigations


includean assessment
of historicaldata

the 1950s[Marsaland Mazari, 1959].Among the most signifi-

and the collection and evaluation of additional data related to

of the extremelyhighvolumetricwatercontentsandcompressibilitiesof theseclay-richsediments,the main ramificationof


whichwas the potentialfor unprecedentedland subsidence.
During the late 1960s,detailed investigations
were carried
out north of MexicoCity to constructan artificiallake through
induced land subsidence[Marsal, 1969; Hiriart and Graue,
1969]. A network of large-capacitygroundwaterextraction
wellswasinstalledin a sandunit in the lacustrinedepositsand
over a period of 7 monthsof continuouspumping,---3 m of
subsidencewas inducedin the vicinity of the wells. The constructionof this lake, which is currently used primarily for
floodprotection,illustratedthe dynamicrelationshipbetween
aquifer depressurization
and consolidationin the highlycompressiblelacustrinesediments.The hydrogeologicinteraction
betweenthe aquifer and aquitardunits in this leaky aquifer
systemwas later simulatedby Herrera et al. [1982] usingthe
integrodifferentialequationapproachof Herreraand Figueroa
[1969] and Herreraand Rodarte[1973].

the hydraulicresponseof the lacustrinesediments.A relatively


thick sectionof the aquitard(> 100m) is investigatedthrough
the installationof deepclustersof piezometersand the collection of coresamples.This providesthe opportunityto examine
the lacustrinesequenceat depthsbeyondthe 20-50 m limit
that has been the focusof previousdetailed studies.The hydrogeologicdata are coupledwith geotechnicalinformationto
permit a more comprehensiveevaluationof the hydraulicresponseof the aquitard. In addition, a numerical simulatoris
usedto assess
a conceptualmodel of the aquitardsequencein
the ChalcoBasin,to determinethe sensitivityof variousphysical parameters,and to develop preliminary predictionsof
transientland subsidence.
Implicationsrelatedto groundwater
resourcedevelopmentin the ChalcoBasinare discussed
along
with the potential long-termimpactsthat continuedgroundwater extraction may have on land use in the region. The
intentionis that the resultsof thisstudywill be applicableboth
to other areas within
similar conditions

2.

Previous

the Basin of Mexico

exist elsewhere

Studies

and to sites where

in the world.

of Land

cant conclusions drawn from this work was the determination

Subsidence

2.1. Initial Investigations in Mexico City

The downtownarea of Mexico City has been plagued by


problemsrelated to foundationstabilityand land subsidence
sincethe turn of the century.Gayol[1929]providesone of the
earliestreferenceson this topic reportingincreasingproblems
relatedto the maintenanceof sewerdrainswithin Mexico City.
The first recognitionthat land subsidencewas in someway
relatedto the extractionof groundwater,however,appearedin
the geotechnicalliterature pertainingto foundationsof structures[Cuevas,1936].As MexicoCity grewrapidlyin the 1930s,
the demandfor water increasedand problemsassociated
with
land subsidencebecame acute. A pioneer in the Mexican
geotechnicalcommunity,Nabor Carrillo, publishedthe first
comprehensive
assessment
of the land subsidence
phenomena
and developeda direct link betweenthe volumeof groundwater being extracted and the magnitude of the subsidence
causedby consolidationof the lacustrinesediments[Cardllo,
1947].Zeevaert[1953]providedadditionalinsightinto the land
subsidence
problemthrougha seriesof detailedfield measurementsof pore pressuredistributionsin the surficialsediments.
Authoritiesresponsiblefor the water resourcesin the Basin
of Mexico (Comision Hidrologica del Valle de Mexico,
CHVM) commencedthe installationof a network of more
than 300 multilevel piezometersat locationsthroughoutthe
lacustrineplain during the early 1950s.These siteswere designedto permit monitoringof regionalpore water pressure
variations in the lacustrine sedimentsand consisted,on aver-

age, of six different monitoringlevels rangingin depth from


near groundsurfaceto depthsof around 100 m. Most of the
individual piezometer tips were installed in thin sand layers
interbeddedwithin the lacustrinedepositsto ensurerapid hydraulicresponsewhile monitoringthe aquitard'shydraulicsystem. These piezometerclusters,many of which still function
today,providean invaluablehistoricalrecordof the transient
evolutionof pore pressurechangesin this aquitard.
Concurrentwith the installationof the multilevelpiezometer network,an extensiveinvestigationinto the physicalcharacteristicsof the lacustrinesedimentswas carried out during

2.2.

Significance of Nonlinearity in Hydraulic Parameters

Cruickshank[1985]providedfurther theoreticalinsightinto
the unique hydraulicbehaviorof the lacustrineaquitard.In
thiswork, Cruickshankillustratedthe complexinteractionbetween the pumpedaquifer and the compressibleaquitardduring the cyclicextractionassociated
with variabledaily demand
on the municipal aquifer system.In addition, Cruickshank
[1985]demonstratedthroughnumericalanalysisthat the physical parameterscontrollinggroundwaterflow in a highlycompressibleaquitardmight changesignificantlyduringconsolidation. This would consequentlyinduce a nonlinearity in the
governingflow equation.
Rudolph and Frind [1991] investigatedfurther the significanceof the nonlinear parametricbehavior of compressible
sedimentsduring consolidation.Both field investigationsand
numericalanalysiswere usedto studythe upper 20 m of the
aquitardin the TexcocoPlain (Figure 1). A one-dimensional
numericalmodel designedto simulateboth groundwaterflow
in the aquitard and land subsidence,
while incorporatingthe
nonlinearnatureof the hydraulicparameters,wascalibratedto
local hydraulicdata and historicalinformation. Through this
analysis,it was shownthat both the transienthydraulichead
and land subsidence
processesare influencedby progressive
variation of the physicalparametersin the aquitard during
consolidation.

A number of examplesof regional-scalegroundwaterflow


and land subsidencemodelling associatedwith semiconfined
aquifer systemscan be found in the literature. Of particular
interest in the current studyare those that considerthe nonlinear hydraulic response of the aquitard. Gambolati and
Freeze[1973] acknowledged
the variablenature of the hydraulic parametersin their classicstudyof the subsidence
of Venice
but concludedthat within the smallrangeof pressurechanges
encountered at this site, constant values could be assumed.
Neuman et al. [1982] developeda numericallyefficient,quasi
three-dimensionalmodel for simulationof groundwaterflow
and land subsidencein multiaquifer systemswhere the main
hydraulicparametersof the aquitardsvaried as a functionof
transienthydraulichead.
Several key conclusionscan be drawn from the resultsof
these applications.The first is that the assumptionof onedimensionalvertical flow in the aquitard of a semiconfined

3330

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

DETAILED
A'
_

''300 rn'

LIMIT
IMITOF
OI

LACUSTRINE
;USTRI

Figure 2a. Plan view of the Chalcoclayplain indicatingthe


limit and contoured thickness of the lacustrine sediments and

the positionsof the Santa Catarinawell field, regionalstratigraphiccross-section


A-A' and the SARH-CAVM multilevel
piezometer(FN1) withinthe detailedstudyarea.[After Ortega
et al., 1993].

systemis valid not only for the analysisof hydraulichead


transients but can also be used for the simulation of subsidence

phenomenaresultingfrom the consolidation


process.The second observationis that due to the prevalenceof the vertical
flow componentin the aquitard,horizontalheterogeneity
will
have little influenceon the flow and subsidencephenomena
whereasverticalheterogeneitywill be a significantfactor.
The conclusions
listed abovecan be made for two primary
reasons.Owing to the large contrastin hydraulicconductivity
betweenthe aquiferand the aquitard,lateralflow components
in the aquitard inducedby depressurization
in an adjacent
aquiferare insignificant.
This was initiallyquantifiedby Neuman and Witherspoon
[1969]. In addition,the nature of the
pressuredisturbancegeneratedby groundwaterextraction
from the aquiferunit tendsto be very broadin lateral extent
andwith the.exceptionof the areaimmediatelyadjacentto the
pumpingcenter,has a very gentlelateral gradientawayfrom
the well. The main ramificationis that a fairly uniformpressure
wavepropagates
throughthe aquitardandthat onlyveryminor
lateralgradientsare inducedin the aquitard.The consolidation
processis thereforealmostcompletelyunidimensional
under
theseconditions.This contrastsstronglywith the consolidation

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

This infers then that the main controllingfactorswill be the


verticalvariabilityin the hydraulicparametersand the temporal variabilityin the upper and lower boundaryconditions.
Within the Basinof Mexico,regional-scale
groundwater
flow
and land subsidence
was investigatednumericallyby Riveraet
al. [1991]. Employingthe same simplifyingassumptions
as
those of Neuman et al. [1982], the authorsrepresentlateral
flow in the productionaquifer in two dimensionsand onedimensionalverticalflowin the overlyingaquitardin a classical
quasithree-dimensional
formulation.The aquitardhydraulic
parametersare permittedto vary with changesin hydraulic
headand porosityaccordingto geotechnical
relationships
derivedfrom standardconsolidationtheory.Usingregionallyaveragedinitial valuesof hydraulicparametersin the aquitard
andboundaryconditionsbasedon regionalwaterbalanceconsiderations,
the authorsdemonstratethat acceptablereproduction of boththe transientpiezometricand land subsidence
data
canonlybe madewhenthe nonlinearbehaviorof the aquitard
hydraulicparametersis accommodated.
Theseresultsclearly
demonstratedthat even at the regional scale,the nonlinear
responseof the aquitardmustbe considered
for accuraterepresentationof the aquifer systemin the Basinof Mexico and
that one-dimensionalanalysisof the consolidationprocessin
the aquitardis appropriate.
On the basis of the research results presented above, a
practicalapproachfor the analysisof land subsidence
under
site-specific
conditionswill be developedin this paper and
appliedto oneof the mostrapidlysubsiding
areasin theworld,
the Chalco Basin near Mexico City.

3.

Hydrogeologyand Groundwater Pumping

in the Chalco

Basin

Drilling records and surface geophysicalsurveysin the


ChalcoBasinindicatethat the thicknessof the lacustrineaquitard increasesfrom the edgesof the former lake to a maximum
thicknessof --300m in the center of the plain (Figure 2a)
[(SARH-CAVM),1982;Beuhumeaand Vazquez,1988;SARHCEAS, 1989]. The lacustrinesedimentsare interbeddedwith
Quaternarybasaltsand pyroclasticdepositsnear Sierra Chichinautzinand in the vicinityof the SantaCatarinaWell Field
(Figure 2b) [Departamento
del DistritoFederal(DDF), 1979,
1986]. The lacustrineaquitard overliesa regionalgranular
aquiferconsisting
primarilyof alluvialandpyroclastic
material
andrangingin thicknessbetween200 and400 m. The granular
aquiferis underlainby Tertiary volcanicbedrock.
Core samplesfrom boreholesdrilled to evaluatethe comprocess
associated
withthedissipatio
n ofexcess
porepressurepositionaland geotechnicalpropertiesof the lacustrinesediof
under a point surfaceload suchas a building.Under these ments(CH1 to CH3, Figure3a), indicateda highpercentage
conditions,fully three-dimensionalanalysisis generallywar- organicmaterial,plant remains,and smallfossils.In addition,
interbeds of fine black volcanic sand and pumice were freranted [Craig,1978].
These observationsalso imply that if the uniform pressure quentlyencounteredwithin the lacustrinesequence[SARHpulse interceptsa more permeablesublayersuchas a sand CAVM, 1981;Hansen,1989;DDF, 1990]. Someof thesemore
There is a
interbed,the locallateralgradientsgeneratedin the permeable permeableinterbedsare severalmetersin thickness.
unit will be extremelysmall.Consequently,
the pressurepulse paucity of data regardingthe mineralogyof the lacustrine
will migrateverticallythroughthe more permeable,lesscom- materials in the Chalco Basin itself, but elsewherein the Basin
pressibleunit and into the overlyingaquitardmaterial,likely of Mexico, several detailed mineralogical studies of the
with verylittle drop in hydraulicpotential.It shouldbe noted lacustrinesedimentshavebeencompleted.MarsalandMazari,
that this last observationwould onlybe validwhere the draw- [1959] reportedthat the lacustrinedepositscontainbetween
20% and65% clay-sizefraction(particles<2/m), with --50%
down coneis large in areal extent.
of smectite,montmorillonite
The final implication of these observationsis that at any of the clay-sizefractionconsisting
givenlocationwithin the aquitard,one-dimensional
consolida- in particular.Other mineralogystudieson the MexicoCity clay
tion processes
can be assumedwith reasonableconfidence. have estimatedthat 10% of the clay-sizefraction is smectite

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

3331

A'
SOUTH

NORTH

2500
,,,%
SIERRA
CHICHINAUTZIN SANTA
CATARINA
WELL
FIELD
1

'-'

2100

<

19oo

>

' .........................

""

! l

" -----'

U31700
1500

2 km

Figure 2b. Regionalstratigraphiccrosssection(A-A') trendingfrom southto north throughthe Chalco


Basinadjacentto the SantaCatarinawell field. Stratigraphicsequenceis basedon drillinglogsandgeophysical
surveyresultsthroughoutthe valley. [After Ortegatal., 3993].

which may be interlayeredwith hydroxidecomplexesof aluminium, iron, and possiblymagnesium.The remainingportion is


reported to be cristobalitesilica, allophane,and fine opaline
siliceousfragmentsof diatoms[Meshet al., 1975; Warrenand
Rudolph,1997].Thesestudiesillustratethe stratigraphiccomplexityand heterogeneityof the lacustrinedeposits.
Vertical fractureshave been reported in the upper 15 m of
the lacustrineaquitardin the Basinof Mexicoby geotechnical
researchers[Marsaland Mazari, 1959;Hiriart and Marsal, 1969;
Resendizand Solana, 1969; Juarez-Badillo,1978; Murillo and
Garcia,!978;Alberro,1988].Small-scalefractureswere studied

Town of

Santa

mO
;o

VWP1

drilled

.100 m"

CH2

4P2'--,
Santa

Catarina

Drainage

Canal
mO

Nest
of
Piezometers

[]

Core Hole

PumpingWell

NP3

rock in the foothills

of the Sierra

Chi-

wasapproximately
5 m3/s[DDF, 1979].Fourteendeepwells

Wells
LEGEND

in the basaltic

chinautzinand Sierra Santa Catarina during the early ]960s.


Springssituatedat the foothillsof Sierra Chichinautzinsubsequently disappeareddue to this exploitationof the basaltic
aquifer.
By the mid-1970sthe total extractionin the Chalco Basin

vo

in a hydrogeologiccontext by Rudolph et al. [1991] in the


Texcocoaquitard and Ortega[3993] in the Chalco aquitard.
These studiesconcludedthat fracturessignificantlyinfluence
groundwaterflow and solute transport in the aquitard to a
depthof at least20 m. Also, large regional-scalefractureshave
been observedas wide as ] m at ground surfaceand tens to
hundredsof metersin length at isolatedlocationsin the Basin
of Mexico, althoughit is unclearhow continuousthey are with
depth. Groundwaterflow conditionsalongtheselocal and regional fracturesare the focusof ongoingresearch.
Pumping of the unconfinedgranular aquifer around the
peripheryof the aquitard in the Chalco Basin started during
the early ]940s for local use. Historic information indicates
that the southernmostedge of the Basin was an area of
groundwaterdischargeprior to the onsetof heavygroundwater
extractionfrom the regionalaquiferunderneaththe lacustrine
aquitard in the 1950's [Ortegaet al., 1993]. The first wells
installed to provide water to Mexico City by pipeline were

Multilevel
Monitoring

Well

m m m

Access Road

Main Road

forming the Santa Catarina well field were drilled in the


Chalco Basin in the early 1980s to depths of up to 400 m
(Figures2 and 3) to meet the increasingwater demand of
Metropolitan Mexico City. Since 1984 thesewells have sup-

pliedbetween1.4and1.75m3/sto thecity[Ortega
etal., 1993].
The total amount of groundwaterwithdrawal in the Chalco

Basinin 1988wasof theorderof 7.75m3/s[Huizar,1989]and


in 1991wasestimated
tobe ---8m3/s[Ortega
etal., 1993].Water
balance estimatesfor the Basin suggestthat the production

aquiferreceives
a totalannualrecharge
of -6.5 m3/s[Huizar,

1989].When comparedto currentoverallextractionrates,this


would indicate that the aquifer is being overexploited by
Figure 3a. Detailed location plan of study area indicating
-20%.
positionsof the groundwatermonitoringsitesand core holes
Measurementsof hydraulichead in the aquitard near the
used during the investigationrelative to the Santa Catarina
well field and the approximatethicknessof the lacustrinesed- middle of the Chalco Basin started in 1954 [SARH-CAVM,
iments.
1960]when the multilevelpiezometer(FN1) was installedin
---100 m --'

AquitardThickness

3322

DAHAN

ET AL.:

FLOW

-:;::

Potentialflow pahs

IN A FRACTURE

...,57-:-"
:..

::'

'-;...
'.-..,,,:,:
.,:,,::'.::-,

INTERSECTING

....,-v:.
:
......

CHALK

of 0.9. The slightlyhigherflow rate out of pond 8 with respect


to the combinedflow rate of the samplercellscanbe attributed
to (1) minor water contributionsfrom pond 8 to other cells
(e.g.,cells8, 9, 10, 11, and 15; Figure6), (2) diversionof pond
water awayfrom the horizontalboreholeinto secondary,small
fracturesintersectingthe main fracture,and (3) unknowncontributionsto other cellsalong trajectoriesthat were not intercepted during the two tracer tests.
3.3.2.

Scale
(cm)

UNSATURATED

Ponds 5 and 7 and sampler cells 8, 9, 10, and 11.

During the first tracer test, pond 5 servedas the main water
sourcefor samplercells8, 9, 10, and 11. However, during the
secondtest the amount of taggedwater from pond 7 to these
cellsincreased(Figure 6). Thus it appearsthat ponds5 and 7

Figure 7. The fracture opening and its filling material as


shownat the coreholeceiling.The photorevealsthe separation
betweentwo potentialflow pathsthat may occuron both sides
of the filling material.

Pond8 and samplercells4, 5, 6, 13, 14, 16

(a)

8O

?%

6O

sourceof cells8, 9, 10, and 11, but duringthe secondtest,pond


7 became the main sourcefor cells 10 and 11, while the relative

4O

contributionof pond5 to thesecellsdeclined.Thesetemporal


variationsof the relativecontributionsfrom pondsto sampler
cells,demonstratedby thesetwo examples,canbe easilytied to
the increasein fluxesfrom ponds7 and 8 during the second
tracer test (Figure 3).

2O

'

3.3. Confirmation of Flow Trajectories


Using Water Flux Data

'

48

'

72

'

96

120

Ponds5 and7 andsamplercells8 - 11


1500

The resultsobtainedfrom the tracer experimentswere reevaluatedwith the measuredwater fluxes.For that purpose,
fluxesfrom both endsof the flow path, at the donor pondson
land surfaceand at the receivingsamplercellsin the borehole,
were comparedand had to be reasonablysimilar.It shouldbe
noted,however,that whereasthe trajectorieswere established

80O

600

400

on the basis of the two tracer tests, the duration of which was

200

<10% of the total time of the experiment,fluxeswere compared over the entire durationof the experiment.Considering
the temporal variationsin flow trajectoriesobservedin these
two tracer tests,only the dominanttrajectories(bold lines in
Figure 6) connectingsourcepondsto samplercellswere analyzed. In the following,water fluxeswere comparedfor individualflow domainswithin the fractureplane. It shouldalsobe
noted that the time lag from the pondsto the samplercells,as
definedby the tracer breakthroughcurves,was of the order of

24

48

72

96

120

Ponds11 - 16 andsamplercells 16 - 21

$00

200

a few minutesfor trajectories


of highflowrates(e.g.,sampler

150

cell 10) to a maximumof 1 hour for trajectoriesof very low


flowrate (e.g.,samplercell4). Consideringthe timescaleof the
entire experiment,these short time lags were ignored when
comparingthe flow curves.
3.3.1.

24

100
50

Pond 8 and sampler cells 4, 5, 6, 13, 14, and 16.

During both tests,tracersfrom pond 8 were found in large


relative concentrationsin samplercells4, 5, 6, 13, 14, and 16

24

48

72

96

120

Time (h)

(Figure6). Thereforethecombined
flowrate,calculated
for all

Legend:
.
Combinedflow curvefor samplercells

of these cells, was comparedto the flow rate of their main


water source,pond 8 (Figure 8a). Althoughthe flow rate of the
pondwasconsistently
higher(by 25%) than that of the combinedcells,the fluxpatternwasidentical,andmostfluctuations
observedon the flow rate curveof the pondwere alsoseenon
that of the samplercells(Figure 8a). A linear regressionanalysisperformed on the fluxesmeasuredat pond 8 and at the

Figure 8. Comparisonof temporal variations in flow rates


from contributingpondsto receivingsamplercells:(a) pond 8
and samplercells4, 5, 6, 13, 14, and 16; (b) ponds5 and 7 and
samplercells 8-11; and (c) ponds 11-16 and samplercells

sampler
cellsyieldedgoodfitswitha correlation
coefficient
R2

16-21.

........ Combinedflow curvefor ponds

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

Thesewellswere placedin sandyunitsencounteredat various


depthsin the lacustrinesequencebetween50 and 130m below
groundsurfaceprovidingthe deepestpiezometricinformation
availablefor the Chalco aquitard.
4.2.

Site Instrumentation

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

3333

hydraulicresponseand consolidationof the lacustrineaquitard. The model incorporatesempiricalexpressions


that relate
the hydraulicparametersof specificstorage(Ss') andhydraulic
conductivity(K') to the soil mechanics
parametersvoid ratio

(e) and effectivestress(O'e).During the processof transient

flow and consolidation,the values of K' and Ss' change as


Clustersof piezometerswere installedin the aquitardalong functionsof e and tre. The standard 1-D groundwaterflow
a transect,orientedroughlyparallelto the SantaCatarinawell equationthat solvesfor the hydraulichead distributionconsefield. The instrumentedtransectextendsfrom the edge of the quentlybecomesnonlinear. By assumingconstanttotal stress
clay plain where the aquitardthicknessis ---35 m, inward to- conditions,the nodal effectivestressrequiredfor updatingthe
wardsthe middleof the plainwhereit is ---300m thick(Figures K' and Ss' parameters,can be calculatedfrom the hydraulic
3a and3b).Thispermitteddifferentthicknesses
of the aquitard headvaluesprovidedby the model. The main equationsrelatto be investigated.To obtain detailedvertical profilesof hy- ing the nonlinear hydraulic parameters to the geotechnical
draulichead, three clustersof drive-pointpiezometers(NP1, parametersare presentedbriefly below.
The changein void ratio (de) as a functionof a changein
NP2, and NP3) with an averageof 10 piezometerseach and
one clusterof 8 vibratingwire piezometers(VWP1) were in- effectivestress(dire) is relatedin
stalledalongthe transectas shownin Figure 3a. At each site,
the piezometerswere installedas deeply as possible.At site
ITeo
/
NP1, 10 monitoringpointswere installedbetweenthe water
table and the point of refusal at 35 m. The vibrating wire where Cc is the compressionindex, the slope of the linear
piezometerslocated at VWP1 reacheda maximumdepth of portionof the e-log treplot and treOis the effectivestressunder
56 m before reachingrefusal.NP2 is locatedadjacentto core currenthydraulichead conditionsprior to a subsequent
pore
hole CH2 and to the deepwell clusterinstalledby DDF. Seven pressurechange.
drivepointswere installedat this sitefrom near groundsurface
The specificstorage(Ss') of the aquitardis related to the
to a total depth of 45 m and when combinedwith the DDF void ratio (e) and effectivestress((re) through
wells,providedthe deepestand mostcompleteverticalprofile.
The final site (NP3) waspositionedfar out into the clayplain
where the lacustrinesequenceis extremelythick (300 m). A
O'eo
total of 10 piezometerswere installedat this siteto a maximum
Ss'(e,(re)
=
do-e(1
+ e0)
(2)
depth of 85 m.
Each drive-pointpiezometertip wasconstructedof a 15-cm where p is the densityof water, # is the accelerationdue to
sectionof perforated 1/2"or 3/4" stainlesssteelpipe wrapped gravity,and eo is the current void ratio prior to a subsequent
with fine nylon screenand shieldedwith perforated stainless changein effectivestress.With (2), variationsin specificstorcan be accounted
steel externalpipe. The piezometertip was connectedinter- age that may arise during depressurization
nally to a 1.0-cminsidediameter(ID) polyethylenetube and for.
Finally, an empirical expressionrelating the changein hyexternallyto a black-ironpipe. An additional20-cmsectionof
of the aquitard(K') to variationsin void
stainless
steelpipewasplacedbetweenthe filter andthe black- draulicconductivity
iron pipe to avoidchemicalinfluencedue to metal corrosionat ratio can be expressedas
the filter tip. The vibratingwirepiezometers(VWP1) consistof
dK'(e) = K;(e)(10ae/m
- 1)
(3)
a stainlesssteeldrive-pointchamberfitted with smalldiameter
filtersthat permit pore water pressureto be transmittedto an where (K;) is the initial hydraulicconductivityand (m) repinternal diaphragm and subsequentlyto the vibrating wire resentsthe slopeof the e-log K' plot, generallyestimatedon
mechanismthat convertswater pressureto an equivalentelec- laboratorysamples[Larnbeand Whitman,1969].
Within the numericalsolutionprocess,the changesin effectronic signal.The signalis transmittedthrough a cable to a
recordinginstrumenton ground surface.The vibratingwire tive stressthroughoutthe domainresultingfrom transientvaripiezometerswere installedaspart of a parallel studyon long- ations in hydraulichead are calculatedeach time step. Eleterm pore pressurefluctuations,but the data provedusefulin mental void ratios and lengths, along with the K' and Ss'
the current study to provide an additionalvertical hydraulic valuesare then updatedusing(1), (2), and (3) prior to the
subsequenttime step. Changesin void ratio as a result of
head profile.
pore pressures
are calculatedon an elementalbasis
The piezometerswere installedat eachsite usinga combi- decreasing
nationof portablehand-heldequipment,includinga gasoline- and summedover the entire lengthof the discretizeddomain
poweredjack hammer (Pionjar, model 120), a pneumatic- to determine the total volume change of the consolidating
powered hammer and a portable rotary drilling machine sediment.The nodal spacingis then modified to accountfor
(Winkie Drill). After installation,the piezometerswere devel- the changein domainlength each time step.More detailson
oped and allowed to recover to static conditions.Stabilized the numerical approachare provided by Rudolph and Frind
hydraulic heads were subsequentlyrecorded. Bail recovery [1991].
For the numericalanalysisconductedin this study,the 1-D
testswere conductedon all of the drive-pointwells and values
of hydraulicconductivitywere estimatedwith the method of model was calibrated simultaneouslyto observedhydraulic
head profiles and historicchangesin land surfaceelevation
Hvorslev[1951].
usingfield-measuredvaluesof the hydraulicparameters.The
4.3. Numerical Analysis Approach
calibratedmodel wasthen usedto predict long-termland subpotentialpumpingstrategiesdesignedto
A one-dimensional
(l-D) finiteelementmodel[Rudolphand sidenceand to assess
Frind, 1991]was usedfor the numericalanalysisof transient minimize the magnitudeof the subsidence.

de(tre)
=Cc
log
(tre
+dtrel

pgCclog(cre+dc

3334

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.'

LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

CH2

LACUSTRINE
g

SEDIM

***/

ee

-2

-5

SAND

;-7

LAY

-1

-12

GRANUAL.-'3
AQUIFER "

-1

VOID

(a)

RATIO

(b)

'12 0

COMPRESSION INDEX (Cc)

(c)

8 '10"12 10'1 10-8 '10


-6
K' ( m/s )

(d)

Figure 4. Vertical profilesof stratigraphic


and geotechnical
informationfrom corehole CH2 including(a)
generalstratigraphic
sequence,
(b) voidratio (e), (c) compression
index(Cc), and(d) hydraulicconductivity
(K').

5.

Results

5.1. Hydrostratigraphy and Physical Properties


of the Lacustrine Aquitard

were conductedby DDF to estimatethe compressionindex


(Cc). Theseresultsare presentedin Figures4b and 4c.
The void ratio of the lacustrine

sediments varies between

and 8 throughoutthe vertical profile althoughboth the magnitudeandvariabilitydecreasesignificantly


with depth(Figure
4b). The porosityvariesbetween60% and 90%. The valuesof
the geotechnicalpropertiesare consistentwith measurements
madeon the lacustrinesedimentsin otherpartsof the Basinof
Mexico[MarsalandMazati, 1959].The Cc valuesshowa wide
rangebetweent and 6 with a meanvalue of 3 to 4 and haveno
apparentdepth trend.
Figure4d displaysthe hydraulicconductivity
values(K') for
the sediments,determinedthroughsingle-wellresponsetests
(bail tests)performedon the piezometersby Vargas[1995]
using the method of Hvorslev[1951]. Becauseof the depth
limitations of the piezometer installation method, data are
restrictedto the upper 85 m of the sequence.Although it is
recognizedthat the applicabilityof the Hvorslev[1951]analysis
to single-wellresponsetest data in highlycompressiblesedimentsis problematic,the resultsare includedhere to provide
a generalindicationof the variabilityof hydraulicconductivity
throughoutthe sequence.An extremelywide range of values

On the basisof geologiclogsfrom the SantaCatarinawells,


core descriptionsfrom the DDF boreholesand the variable
penetrationresistanceof the drive-pointpiezometersduring
installation,a generalstratigraphiccrosssectionthroughthe
studyareawasconstructed
(Figure3b). In the northernpart of
the Basin,near the edge of the clay plain, the lacustrinesediments are underlain by basalt. On the basisof the drilling
recordsfrom the productionwells,the basalttendsto be interlayeredwith lacustrinesedimentsindicatingcontemporaneous
deposition.The basaltsoverliethe granularaquifer at depths
of ---tOOm, and there appearsto be some interlayeringbetweenthe basaltand the aquifermaterial.The basaltdoesnot
appearto extendmuch further past the locationof the CHt
borehole(Figure 3b). Along the remainingpart of the cross
sectionthe lacustrinesedimentsare underlainby the granular
aquifer material.
The lacustrine sedimentsalong the crosssectionvary in
thicknessfrom ---35m near site NP1 to 300 m in the vicinityof
siteNP3 andcoreholeCH3 (Figure3b). The sequence
consists
The highest
of clayeylayers,5 to 35 m thick,interbeddedwith thin layersof (2.0 X 10-6 to 5.0 X t0- m/s)wasmeasured.
fine volcanic sand, several centimetres in thickness.The exis- valuesare concentratedin the upper t0 m with a progressive
tence of these sandybeds has been reported throughoutthe decreasingtrend with depth. Owing to the local scaleof this
Basin of Mexico. The piezometersinstalledthroughoutthe type of test, the estimatedhydraulicconductivityvaluesoften
Basinin the t950s [SARH-CAVM, 1960]were generallyplaced do not reflect the large-scaleheterogeneityof the geologic
andfrequentlyunderestimate
the effectivebulk-scale
in them. Two distinctinterbeds,generallyencounteredat 20 sequence
and 40 m below groundsurfaceare up to severalmetersthick value [Bradburyand Muldoon,1990].
A log-linearrelationshipbetweenhydraulicconductivityand
and are referred locallyto as the CapasDuras.
The main geotechnicalparametersof interestin this study void ratio (equation(3)) hasbeennotedby Mesriet al. [1975]
were drawn from the work conductedby DDF [1990] which and Juarez-Badillo[1983] for the lacustrinesedimentswithin
included laboratory analysisof undisturbed samples taken the Basin of Mexico. The slope (m) of this relationshipis
fromthe Shelbytubecorescollectedat CH2 (Figure3). Figure useful in estimatinghydraulicconductivityfor a given void
4a presentsa generalstratigraphiclog constructedfrom exam- ratio value.A value for m of ---3wasdeterminedby both Mesri
inationof the Shelbytube core samples.A total of 26 samples et al. [1975] and Juarez-Badillo[1983]. This value was also
were takenbetweengroundsurfaceand 120m with an average adoptedby Riveraet al. [1991]for their regionalsimulationsof
verticalseparationof 4 m. Void ratio valueswere determined groundwaterflow and land subsidencein the Basinof Mexico.
transient
on each sample and standardoedometertests [Craig, 1978] The sensitivityof hydraulicconductivityin assessing

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

(a)

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

(b)

NEST

NP1

3335

(c)

NEST

VWP1

NEST

NP2

Data from

Vibrating
Wire

j Sediment
Lacustrine

50

Piezometers

J Basalt

j Granular
Aquifer

lOO

Head in the

Head in the

,' Aquifer
150
-30

-20

-10

,' Aquifer

Head in the

'--0

-30

-20

- 10

-30

Aquifer

-20

-10

RELATIVE HYDRAULIC HEAD ( m )

Figure 5. Averagevertical profilesof relative hydraulichead measuredin 1991 and generalstratigraphic


sequenceat (a) monitoringlocationNP1, (b) monitoringlocationVWP1, and (c) monitoringlocationNP2.

hydraulichead profilesand subsidence


evolutionwill be evaluated in the numericalanalysissection.
5.2.

Hydraulic Head

When the Santa Catarina wells were drilled in 1982, static

water levelsin the aquiferwere observedto be -17 m below


groundsurface.If conditionscloseto hydrostaticare assumed
to have existedat the aquifer-aquitardinterfaceprior to the
commencement
of major groundwaterextractionin the 1950s,
an annual declinein the aquifer piezometricsurfaceof about
0.5 m would appearto be reasonablebetweenthis initial date
and the early 1980s. Since pumping began from the Santa
Catarina wells in 1983, this rate of decline in the aquifer piezometricsurfacehas increasedto -1.5 m/yr [Ortegaet al.,
1993].
The piezometric data from both the production aquifer
(Santa Catarinawells) and the aquitardin the ChalcoBasin
indicateclearlythat the regionalflow systemhas not reached
an equilibriumstatebut continuesto evolvedynamically.Hydraulic head data was collectedfrom all newly installed piezometerson a monthlybasisduring 1991 and lessfrequently
for severalsubsequent
years.Seasonalvariationsin water levels were small. Figure 5 showsaveragevertical profiles for
three of the monitoringlocationsin 1991.
Where the aquitard is the thinnest(NP1, Figure 3b), the
influenceof depressurization
in the aquiferis evidentthroughout the entire thicknessof the aquitard(35 m). A downward
componentof groundwaterflow prevailsthroughoutwith the
gradientincreasingprogressively
with depth (Figure 5a). At
the NP1 site,the aquitardis underlainby nearly70 m of basalt,
whichin turn overliesthe deep granularregionalaquifer.The
hydraulicheadin the aquiferat thislocationin 1991,basedon
data from the Santa Catarina wells,was -30 m below ground
surface.Although there are no direct measurementsof the
hydraulicdiffusivityof the basaltmaterial, it is clear that the
pressuredrop in the aquiferhasbeentransmittedthroughthe
basaltinto the aquitard.The high magnitudeof the apparent
gradientthrough the basalt suggeststhat at this location,its
hydraulicconductivityis low, possiblysimilar to that of the
aquitardmaterial.The nonlinearshapeof the hydraulic-head
profile in the aquitardsuggests
that hydraulicequilibriumhas

not yet beenreached,althoughRudolphandFtind [1991]show


that a progressivedecreasein hydraulic conductivitywith
depth producesa similar effect. Continued drawdownin the
underlyingaquifer, however,maintainsa state of nonequilibrium in the aquitard.
At the VWP1 locationthe aquitardthicknessis -60 m and
a 40 m sequenceof basalticrock separatesthe aquitard from
the deep regionalaquifer.The hydraulichead in the aquifer
was again -30 m below ground surfaceat this site and this
pressuredrop has at least been partially transmittedto the
basalt-aquitardinterface (Figure 5b). The vertical hydraulic
head profile is similarto that observedat NP1 with a progressive increasein hydraulicgradientwith depth. Near ground
surface,however,the magnitudeof the gradientis lower than
that observedat NP1 indicatingthat the effectsof aquifer
depressurization
havereachedgroundsurfacemore recentlyat
the VWP1 site.Again, owingto the nonlinearityof the piezometric profile, hydraulicequilibrium conditionshave apparently not yet been reachedand further declinesin hydraulic
headwithin the aquitardcan be anticipated.
A significantlydifferent condition exists at the NP2 site
where no basaltis presentoverlyingthe granularaquifer and
the lacustrinesedimentsare nearly 140 m thick. In the upper
50 m, hydrostaticconditionsprevailin the aquitard,indicating
little or no influencefrom depressurization
in the underlying
aquifer(Figure 5c). Theselikely representthe hydraulicconditionsthat existedthroughoutthe entire thicknessof the aquitard at this site, prior to the commencementof pumpingfrom
the regionalaquifersystem.Below50 m, progressively
increasing downwardflow gradientsexist, indicatingthat pore pressuresin the bottom 100 m of the aquitardhave decreasedas a
result of aquifer pumping.The hydraulichead profile at the
NP2 site is clearly in a transient state. Pore pressureswill
continueto decreasewith time and thisdecreasewill propagate
verticallyupwardthroughthe entire thicknessof the aquitard.
Vertical hydraulicheadprofilesmeasuredat siteNP3, where
the aquitardis the thickest(>300 m) indicatethat neutral
verticalgradientsexistin the upper85 m of the sequence(data
shownlater on Figure9b). This againillustratesthat wherethe
aquitardis relativelythick (> 100 m), the depressurization
ef-

3336

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.:

LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

NEST
NP1
NESTVWP1
NEST NP2

NEST NP3
z

-10

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

YEAR

Figure 6. Decline in groundsurfaceelevationbetween1960and 1991estimatedat eachof the groundwater


monitoringlocationsbasedon historicalsurveydata.

feetsof the aquiferpumpingare not yet detectablethroughout


the entireunit andconditionssimilarto thosethat existedprior
to the commencement
of pumpingpersistin the upperportion
of the aquitard.
The hydraulichead data indicatethat the aquifer-aquitard
systemwithin the Chalco Basin is hydraulicallyevolvingin a
very dynamicfashion.This conditionwill likely continuewell
into the future as long as heavy groundwaterextractioncontinues.Downwardgroundwaterflow conditionscurrentlyexist
in the aquitardwithin ---100m of the aquifer-aquitardinterface
and these downward

flow conditions

will continue

to increase

and expandthroughoutthe lacustrineplain.

FN1 site in 1960. The evolution of land subsidence at each site

is estimatedby plottingthe assumed1960elevationsalongwith


the data from severalof the level surveysconductedbetween
1984and 1991(Figure6). The highestmagnitudes
andratesof
subsidence occur where the lacustrine sediments are the thick-

est and have experiencethe largestdeclinesin pore pressure


(NP2, NP3). Conversely,at sitesNP1 and VWP1, the largest
pore pressuredecreaseoccursacrossthe basaltunit,.which is
essentiallyincompressible.
Although the pore pressureshave
begunto declinein the overlyinglacustrinesedimentsat these
sites,the magnitudeof the stresschangeis relativelylow and
subsequently
the amountof inducedcompression
is alsofairly
low.

5.3.

Evolution

of Land

Some of the earliest

Subsidence

documented

After the commencement


of pumpingfrom the SantaCataelevation

data from the

rina wells in 1984, the subsidence rate at NP2 and NP3 in-

centre of the Chalco Basin are associatedwith level surveys creasedsignificantlyrelative to sites NP1 and VWP1. This
conducted around the time of the installation

of the multilevel

piezometerstation(FN1) by CAVM in the late 1950s(Figure


3a). Thesedataindicatethat in 1960,the surfaceof the Chalco
clayplainwasrelativelylevel,not yet influencedsignificantly
by
pumping-induced
subsidence.
In the vicinityof the FN1 multilevel piezometersite,the elevationwas 2240.3masl [SARHCAI/M, 1981].Regionaltopographicsurveysin the late 1970s

accelerated

differential

settlement

has resulted

in the forma-

tion of a significanttopographicdepressionlocated approximately in the centre of the Basin (Figure 7). The elevation
gradient in the surface drainage canal network, which was
designedto maintaingroundwaterlevelsbelowgroundsurface,
has significantlydecreasedand in some areasreversed,such
that duringthe rainy seasona fairly large surfacewater body
recorded elevations of between 2237 and 2238 masl in the
now forms in the low lying areas [Ortegaet al., 1993]. This
vicinity of the FN1 site. This indicatesthat an averageland relativelyconcentricdepressionwill continueto expandand
subsidence
rate of 0.10 to 0.15 m/yr persistedin the centrepart deepenas groundwaterextractionand subsidencecontinues.
of the Basinprior to the installationof the SantaCatarinawell
The highlytransientand nonlinearnature of the subsidence
field. This land subsidenceis presumablydue to loweringof processin this lacustrinesequencemakeslong-termpredicaregional piezometric levels in the aquifer due to pumping tion of the total magnitudeand distributionof the land subsiaround the lateral boundariesof the clay plain. Additional dencein the ChalcoBasindifficult,althoughsomeinsightcan
elevation data were collected when the Santa Catarina wells
be derivedfrom numericalanalysisas discussed
below.
were drilled in the early 1980s,and on severalother occasions
up to 1991[SARH-CAI/M, 1984;CNA-GAI/M, 1991a,b; Ortega 5.4. Numerical Analysis
et al., 1993].
At the site of the NP2 piezometercluster,approximately
On the basisof the earlysurveydata, the surfaceelevationat midwayalongthe studytransect(Figure 3a), the most comeachof the newpiezometersites(NP1, VWP1, NP2, NP3) can plete set of subsurfaceinformation is concentrated.This inbe assumed to have been close to that recorded around the
cludesgeotechnicaldata from the nearby CH2 core hole, hy-

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.'

LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

3337

iour near the NP3 site, where the sedimentsare the thickest, to

BOUNDARY
OF
TyNE

VOLCAN O

_',

',',,,,

Basin.

5.4.1. Hydraulic parameters. The physical parameters


requiredby the model includethe specificstorage(Ss') and
the hydraulicconductivity(K') for the flow simulations.In
addition,the compression
index(Cc) is requiredfor calculating changesin Ss' (equation(2)) and for the calculationof
landsubsidence
(equation(1)) andrn is neededfor estimating
changesin K' (equation(3)).
As indicatedin (2), Ss' is a functionof the voidratio (e) and
Cc and varieswith the effectivestress((re). Figure 4c shows
that Cc valuesdeterminedfrom the CH2 core samplesvary

_.__.81AIIC)N
XiCO)

,"'--'2
rn }

investigatevariousalternativepumpingscenariosdesignedto
minimize the magnitude of land subsidencein the Chalco

Figure 7. Estimates of cumulative land subsidencein the


Chalco Basin between 1984 and 1989. [After Ortegaet al.,
1993].

primarily between 1 and 6, averagingaround 3-4. In order to


calculateSs', an initial valueof e = 8 near groundsurfacewas
selectedbasedon the data from CH2 shownin Figure 4b. The
calculatedvariationof initial e with depth is shownrelative to
the field data in Figure 8a as a functionof different Cc values

draulic-headdata from the deepestpiezometercluster(NP2)


and severalmeasurementsof the changesin land surfaceele-

(equation(1)). Althoughthereis significant


scatterin the data,
Cc valuesbetween3 and5 envelopemostof the voidratio data
belowthe 10 m depth.The mostappropriateaveragevaluefor
the Cc parameterwill be determinedthroughthe combined
calibrationof the model to field measuredvaluesof both hy-

vation over time. In addition, this site has a continuous, rela-

draulic head and land subsidence.

The upper 8 m of the lacustrinesequencewasspecifiedasan


tivelythicksectionof lacustrinesediment(140 m) that is representativeof much of the Chalco clay plain. Therefore the overconsolidated zone to be consistent with evidence from
one-dimensional(l-D) numerical simulationsof transient elsewherein the Basin of Mexico, where the clay has been
groundwaterflow and land subsidencewere focusedin this unaffectedby pumping[Rudolphet al., 1991].The overconsolidation in these shallow sediments is believed to be the result of

area.

dessication.
At depthsabove8 m the void ratio wasassumedto
be essentiallyinsensitiveto changesin effective stresswith
transient hydraulichead and the land subsidencedata mea- depth and thereforeconstantvaluesof K' and Ss' were specsuredat the NP2 site. On the basisof this coupledcalibration ified in this shallowregionfor all simulations.
procedureand sensitivityanalysis,a set of hydraulicparameAs discussed
earlier, hydraulicconductivityvaluesrepresenters would be determined
for the lacustrine sediments that
tative of the bulk porous medium are difficult to determine
could then be used to simulate conditions elsewhere in the
throughthe use of single-wellresponsetests.The vertical disChalco Basin and to facilitate predictive simulation.Finally, tribution of K' thereforewas determinedthroughthe calibrathe model was usedto simulatelong-termsubsidence
behav- tion procedurerather than by directly adoptingthe response
The modelingexerciseinvolvedthree main objectives.The

first was to calibrate

the 1-D finite element

model to both the

50

c=6

NEST

NP2

10
-

lOO

n K'o = 1.0x10'7m/s
o K'o = 5.0x10'7m/s

n K'o = 2.3x10-7m/s
A K'o = 5.0x 10'7 m/s
o K'o = 8.0x 10'7m/s

A K'o = 2.3x10-7m/s
rvl msure
tta
I

150

VOID

RATIO

(a)

15

10

1960

FIELD DATA

1980

FIELD DATA
I

2000

1960

1980

YEAR

YEAR

(b)

(c)

2000

Figure 8. Resultsof numericalanalysis


including(a) sensitivity
of calculatedvoidratiovariationwith depth
as a functionof compression
index(Cc), and calculatedvaluesof relativeland subsidence
as a functionof
differentinitial valuesof hydraulicconductivity(K) at, (b) monitoringlocationNP2, and (c) monitoring
location

NP3.

3338

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.:

LONG-TERM

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

test results(Figure 4d). Equation(3) is usedto calculatethe field observationas discussedearlier. As a first step,transient
vertical distributionof K'. The relationshiprequiresa speci- land subsidence was calculated at the NP2 and NP3 sites for
fied initial value of hydraulicconductivity(K) near ground various values of K'. Several of these simulations are shown in
surface,the variation in void ratio with depth and the slopeof Figures8b and 8c. The best fit to the subsidencedata at the
NP2 site was achievedwith a K' value of 2.3 x 10-7 m/s,
the e-logK' plot (m).
A value of m = 3 was selected based on estimates made for

whereas
at the NP3 site,K' = 5.0 x 10-7 m/sprovidedthe

the lacustrine sediments in several areas within the Basin of

closest match to the data.

Mexico [Mesh et al., 1975;Juarez-Badillo,1983]. The vertical


distributionin void ratio, however,requiresthe specification
of
an appropriateCc value(equation(1)). Thiswill representone
of the key calibrationparametersfor the simulationsand cannot be specifiedin advance.Severalinvestigations
of the shallow lacustrinesedimentshaveindicatedthat an averagevalue
of hydraulicconductivitynear groundsurface(<8 m) should

Thesevalueswere then usedto simulatethe verticalhydraulic headprofilesat eachsite. In order to investigatethe sensitivity of the Cc parameter, a seriesof simulationswere conductedwith Cc valuesrangingfrom 1 to 6. As can be seenin
Figure 9a, Cc = 3 providesthe bestfit to the hydraulichead
data at the NP2 site, which correlates with the value selected

for the initial subsidence


simulations(Figure 8). It is interestfall between1 x 10-7 and1 x 10-6 m/s[Rudolph
andFrind, ing to note that the K' valuescalculatedby (3) throughoutthe
1991; Ortega,1993; Vargas,1995]. This rangewill be used to profilerangebetween
2.3 x 10-7 m/sneargroundsurface
and
constrainK, which will also be consideredas a calibration 1.1x 10-8 m/sat theaquifer-aquitard
interface.
Thesevalues
parameter.
are comparableto both the regionalscalemodelingof Herrera
5.4.2. Initial and boundaryconditions. Detailed hydrau- et al. [1982] and Rivera et al. [1991] and to the valuesdeterlic head profilesdo not existthroughthe lacustrinesediments minedin the TexcocoPlain (Figure 1) byRudolphet al. [1991].
prior to the constructionof the multilevelpiezometerstationat
Becausethe hydraulichead data at NP3 is only availablein
FN1 near to NP3 (Figure 3a) by CAVM in the late 1950s. the upper 85 m where hydrostaticconditionsstill persist,the
Initial data from these piezometersindicate that very gentle sensitivityof the hydraulichead simulationsto the Cc paramupwardflow conditionsexistedthroughthe upper 100m of the eter (Figure 9b) cannotbe clearlyascertained.
Therefore,on
aquitard in the central part of the Basinprior to the onsetof the basis of the combined calibration results for the NP2 and
heavypumpingalong the southernboundaryof the Basin in NP3 sites,valuesof K = 5.0 x 10-7 m/sandCc = 3 will
the early 1960s[Ortegaet al., 1993]. For the simulations,the be adoptedas representativeof the conditionsat the NP3 site
assumptionis made that hydrostatic conditions prevailed for use in further predictivesimulations.
5.4.4. Prediction of long-term land subsidence. In order
throughoutthe entire thicknessof the aquitardin 1960,just
before major exploitationof the aquifer commenced.
to assess
the maximumpotentialmagnitudeof land subsidence
A simulationperiodof 31 yearswasselectedto representthe within the ChalcoBasin,a 300-m-thicksectionof the aquitard,
time from when the hydraulichead at the aquitard-aquifer equivalentto the thickestpoint measuredin the centerof the
interface likely began to decreaseunder the clay plain as a Basin(near NP3), was selectedfor the simulations.The simresultof groundwaterpumpingin 1960,to the time when the ulated conditionsat the NP3 site for 1991were projectedto
most recent field data were collectedin 1991.By the time the 2010for the sakeof discussion.
Adaptingthe assumption
that
SantaCatarinawellswent into full operationin 1983-1984,the the annual rate of decline in the aquifer piezometricsurface
hydraulichead in the aquifer had droppedbeneath the study remainsequalto the currentrate overthe entiretime period at
site an averageof 17 m from the estimatedinitial hydrostatic thispoint in the aquitard(1.5 m/yr), the maximumdrawdown
conditions.In order to accommodatethis changein head be- will reach ---60m by the year 2010. This continueddeclinein
tween 1960 and 1984, a variable first-typeboundarycondition hydraulichead at the aquifer-aquitardinterfacewasappliedto
was specifiedat the lower boundaryof the domain.The initial the lower boundaryof the domainduringthe projectedsimuvalue was set to representhydrostaticconditionsthroughout lation period. Under these conditionsthe rate of land subsithe entire domain. The lower boundaryvalue was then de- dencecontinuesat ---0.4m/yr and the estimatedtotal amount
creasedevenlythroughthe time steppingprocessat a rate of of subsidence
is 15 m in the centerof the Basin(Figure10, case
0.7 m/yr in order to produce the required 17 m decline in 1), much greater than that recordedto date in Metropolitan
Mexico City. Under these conditions,significantsubsidence
hydraulichead at the aquifer-aquitard
interfaceby 1984.
Between 1984 and 1991, when the Santa Catarina wells were would continuewell beyondthe 2010 date.
If extraction rates were decreased such that no additional
in full production,data from the productionwellsindicatedan
annual decline in aquifer head of 1.5 m/yr near the NP2 and drawdownoccurredin the vicinityof the productionwells,the
NP3 sites[Ortegaet al., 1993].This rate of declinewasassigned rate of land subsidence
would decreasesignificantlyover the
to the lower boundary conditionsup to 1991. The upper 19-yeartime periodto <0.1 m/yr in 2010with a predictedtotal
boundary of the domain was also specifiedas a first-type of 10-msubsidence.
In thiscase,the systembeginsto approach
boundarybut washeld constant,equalto the initial hydrostatic a steadystate (Figure 10, case5). This indicatesthat even
under most favourable conditions, at least 10 m of total land
condition,throughoutthe simulationperiod.
5.4.3. Simulation results. The initial step in the simula- subsidence
is expectedin the thickestpart of the Basin.
tion processinvolved a simultaneouscalibrationto both the
Figure 10 showsseveralother casesrangingbetween25%
hydraulichead and land subsidencedata at the NP2 site. The and 75% of the current annual increase in drawdown. These
main calibrationparametersincludedthe Cc value (equation simulationsdemonstratethat where the aquitardis thick,tran(1) and (2)) and the initial hydraulicconductivity
valueK in sient hydraulicbehaviourwill persistunder existingpumping
the upper8 m of the domain(equation(3)). The sensitivity
of conditionswell into the nextcentury.The mostlikelycondition
the K parameterwasinvestigatedfirstby selectingan average falls somewhere between the two extremes of cases 1 and 5.
value of Cc -- 3 for the initial simulations.The range of K
It is alsoof interestto observethe evolutionof the leakage
was constrainedbetween 1 x 10-7 and 1 x 10-6 m/s basedon fluxfrom the aquitardto the underlyingregionalaquiferunder

ORTEGA-GUERREROET AL.: LONG-TERM LAND SUBSIDENCE


0

3339

NEST NP2

NEST NP3

50

100

100 Cc-1 200 Cc


I2
150

300

-30

-20

-10

RELATIVEHYDRAULICHEAD (m)

-40

-30

-20

-10

RELATIVEHYDRAULICHEAD (m)

(a)

(b)

Figure9. Sensitivity
ofsimulated
relative
hydraulic
headprofiles
asafunction
ofcompression
index
(Cc)at
(a) monitoring
location
NP2and(b)monitoring
location
NP3.Simulated
timeperiodfrom1960to 1991.
the differentscenarios.
Ortegaet al. [1997]showedthat the increasein leakageflux occurredwhen the Santa Catarina
porewater in the aquitardcontainselevatedconcentrations
of

wellswereput into productionin 1984.If the rate of drawdown

totaldissolved
solids(TDS) thatin someareasmaythreaten remains
constant
(case1, Figure11),increases
in theleakage
thequalityofwaterpumped
fromtheregional
aquifer.Figure fluxwillcontinue
whichmayresultin theprogressive
release
of
11 showsthe transientnatureof the leakageflux at the NP3 high TDS pore water to the aquifer.On the other hand,a
site under the five cases considered above. A considerable significant
decrease
in thedrawdown
rate(cases
4 and5, Figure 11) will resultin a lowerfluxof highTDS waterinto the
aquifer.Whetheror nottheworstcaseleakageratewill sig0
nificantly
impairwaterqualityin the regionalaquiferis unknown.

2.0
1

co -lO

5
4

1.0-

-15

0.5-

-2o

1960

1980

2000

2020
1960

YEAR

Figure 10. Predicted transient evolution of the total subsi-

1980

2000

2020

YEAR

Figure11. Predicted
transientevolution
of the leakageflux
dencein the middleof the ChalcoBasinnearmonitoring enteringthe aquifer in the middle of the Chalco Basinnear
locationNP3 to the year 2010 if the rate of drawdownin the monitoring
locfitionNP3 to theyear2010if the rateof drawproduction
aquiferisreduced
by,0% (case1), 25%(case2), downin theproduction
aquiferis reduced
by,0% (Case1),
50%(case3), 75%(case4), and100%(case5).
25%(Case2), 50%(Case3), 75%(Case4), 100%(Case5).

3340

6.

ORTEGA-GUERRERO

ET AL.: LONG-TERM

Summary and Conclusions

The transferof a considerableportion of the groundwater


extractionfrom the central part of Mexico City to the Chalco
Basin in order to reduce land subsidence in the core of Mexico

City hasresultedin the developmentof hydrologicproblemsin


the ChalcoBasin.Detailed investigations
of transientgroundwater

flow and land subsidence

in the Chalco

Basin reveal

severeoverexploitationof the regionalaquifer system,resulting in a progressiveloweringof piezometriclevelsin the regional aquifer and an accelerateddecline in land surface.
Aquifer depressurization
andsubsidence
beganthroughoutthe
ChalcoBasinprior to the constructionof SantaCatarinawell
field in the middle of the plain. This initial subsidencewas
likely due to pumpingalongthe boundariesof the Basin,particularlyin the rechargeareasin the southernpart of the Basin.
Sincepumpingcommencedfrom the SantaCatarinawells,the
regionalpiezometricsurfacein the aquiferhasbeendropping
at a rate of approximately1.5 m/yr. The currentrate of land
subsidence
in the centralpart of the clayplain is in the order
of 0.4 m/yr, the highestwithin the entire Basinof Mexico.As
this trend continues,a progressively
larger part of the Chalco
Basinwill becomeflooded,inundatingboth rural and urban
land.

LAND

SUBSIDENCE

current rate of continuedannual drawdownprevailsover the


entire time period, a maximumtotal of 15 m of subsidence
wouldresultin the centralpart of the plain.This total wouldbe
muchlargerthan total subsidence
in otherpartsof the Basinof
Mexico. Even if the pumping rates were to be reduced to
preventfurther declinein the aquifer potentiometricsurface,
---10m of total subsidence
would occurby 2010. Reductionin
pumpingrateswould alsolead to a decreasein the leakageflux
from the aquitard,which may have ramificationsrelative to
long-termwater quality in the aquifer. The simulationsalso
indicatethat even if drasticchangesin the pumpingscenario
were implemented,the benefitswould not be realizedfor an
extendedperiod of time.
Acknowledgments. We thank Hector Hacias, Rafael Huizar, and
Marcos Mazari of the National AutonomousUniversity of Mexico
(UNAM) for the insightthat theyhaveprovidedon geotechnical
and
hydrologicalaspectsof lacustrinesedimentsin the Basinof Mexico.
Dante Moran of UNAM providedinfrastructuresupportduringthis
studyand JorgeSanchezand Felip Lopez of the Departamentodel
DistritoFederal(DDF) providedcoreholeandpiezometerdatawithin
the studyarea. We alsowish to acknowledgeRoberta Ortega of Geo
IngenieraInternationalS.A. de C.V. for adviceon field methodsand
Robert Ingletonwho helpeddevelopnew techniquesand applythem
duringthe field program.We are also indebtedto Nadia Bahar for
preparationof the figuresand to RebeccaJacksteitfor technicaland
editorialreviewsof the manuscript.Finally, we wish to gratefullyacknowledgethe independentreviewsof Mark Person and Alfonso
Rivera. Financial support for this investigationwas provided by
CONACYT (Mexico) and NSERC (Canada).

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