HEADLINE: Why Russian subs will once again dominate the Pacific

STRAP: A new generation of quieter, faster and deadlier submarines is poised to

enter service, beefing up the Russian Navys silent service.

Russian submarines are operating in the Pacific at levels not seen in decades. For
the first time since the Cold War, the Russian Pacific Fleet is getting submarines
that are quieter, better armed and have greater range.
According to a study (http://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/russia-asianrebalance.pdf) titled 'Russias Asian Rebalance' by Australia's Lowy Institute for
International Policy, Russias pivot to Asia is resulting in a large-scale revamp of
its Pacific fleet, which over the next decade will go from its smallest to its biggest
naval asset.
New hunter-killer and ballistic missile submarines have been earmarked for the
fleet, which will provide significant heft to Moscows power projection aspirations.
Russia will be operating its new Borei-class SSBNs from its newly upgraded
Pacific base on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Its six new Yasen-class guided missile
submarines are expected to begin entering service in 2017, and it is upgrading
its existing Akula, Oscar and Sierra platforms.
According to Russian military analyst Dmitry Gorenburg,
(https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2015/01/14/russian-naval-capabilities-andprocurement-plans/) The Pacific Fleet is likely to become Russias largest fleet
over the next decade in recognition of the regions increasing geopolitical
importance and the concentration of naval powers in the region.
Changing focus
During the Cold War the Soviet Navy was known for its mega weapons such as
the Typhoon class submarine. With a displacement of 48,000 tons it was almost
as large as an aircraft carrier and dwarfed the largest US Navy submarine by
nearly 20,000 tons. This Soviet leviathan could rain 200 nuclear warheads down
on enemy cities and military installations in a single barrage. However, as the
Cold War ended, these majestic vessels proved incapable of adapting to the new
era of cost cuts.
With the revamp and strengthening of the fleet, the focus is now on expanding
the fleet, especially with the Borei class submarine. Although it is less than half
the size of a Typhoon, the Borei is a major break from the Soviet Navy school of
submarine warfare. The Borei class represents the new generation of extremely
quiet Russian submarines, which are more survivable in the undersea theatre.
Besides being cheaper to run they also require far fewer crew numbers. At the
same time, they do not lack firepower, and are able to launch 16-20 nuclear
missiles, with up to eight independently retargeted warheads.

Russia expects to replace its Cold War subs with a total of 12 Borei SSBNs, says
Gorenburg. Eight are already contracted to be built in the next few years, with
another four expected to be ordered in the next decade. The new subs are likely
to be an updated version of the current Borei II subclass, with improved
electronics and other updated components. The navy plans to locate six in the
Northern Fleet and six in the Pacific Fleet.
The Kuzbass, (http://navaltoday.com/2016/03/21/russian-navy-receivesmodernized-nuclear-powered-submarine/) a multirole Akula-class attack
submarine, is another formidable vessel Russia is introducing in its fleet. To
increase stealth, the sub carries a two-tier anti-vibration mechanism. All the units
are placed on elastic foundations and each one is separated from the next by
pneumatic shock absorbers. This helps lessen the impact of underwater blasts on
the subs mechanisms and crew. Currently completing sea trials, it will soon
resume active duty with the Pacific Fleet.
Power and projection
The increase in the size, firepower and reach of Russian submarines is in step
with Russias re-rise. Throughout the Cold War the US Navy was fond of boasting
that its subs were a lot quieter, which the secretive Soviets never bothered to
rebut. However, with the opening up of Russia, the true capabilities of Russian
submarines are coming out into the open. Russian submariners often tell tall
tales about how they have almost scratched the underbellies of US ships without
the Americans even knowing. They may be closer to the truth than experts
imagine.
Admiral Mark Ferguson, commander of US Naval Forces in Europe, told
(http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/15/politics/mark-ferguson-naval-forces-europerussian-submarines/) CNN that Russia has been deploying combat submarines
and missiles in scales that America has issues keeping pace with. Moscow is
deploying new submarines that are harder for the American Navy to track and
detect.
They are quieter, better armed and have a greater range of operation, noted
Ferguson. "The submarines we're seeing are much more stealthy, Admiral
Ferguson said. We're seeing (the Russians) have more advanced weapons
systems, missile systems that can attack land at long ranges, and we also see
their operating proficiency is getting better as they range farther from home
waters."
Retired Admiral James Stavridis, a former NATO commander, added: "We cannot
maintain 100 per cent awareness of Russian sub activity today."
Future outlook
There is now a plan to develop a new multi-purpose nuclear submarine class,
with the goal of building something cheaper and smaller than the Yasen class.
This would be an attack submarine with decreased missile armament,
comparable to the American Virginia class. The Russian Navy hopes to begin

construction of these subs as early as 2016, with the goal of building a total of
16-18 of them.
Meanwhile, the US Navy has 53 submarines in its inventory, but because of
decommissioning and budget decisions, that figure will drop to 41 by the late
2020s. This makes it abundantly clear that the US Navy will be at a great
disadvantage vis-a-vis the Russia fleet.
Cat and mouse
For decades, Russian and American subs have conducted a game of cat and
mouse under the oceans. Now it appears it doesnt matter how quiet the US
Navy subs are, the Russians can catch them anytime, anywhere.
A Strategy Page report dated February 18, 2015 says: In early 2014 US Navy
submarine detection experts got a scare when a Russian Vishnya class AGI
(Auxiliary General Intelligence, or electronic reconnaissance) ship was seen
several times off the east coast of Florida, in the vicinity of naval air and
submarine bases. The Vishnya spotted off Florida was accompanied by a sea
going tug. Both ships used Cuban ports for resupply. The two ships apparently
first showed up in Cuba in February.
What scared the submarine detection crowd was the recent realisation that
computers had become cheap and powerful enough to make it possible to detect
submarines via the faint signs (like disturbance of the surface waters above
them) that they leave. It has been known for decades that these telltale signs
existed and that with sufficient computing power and sensitive enough sensors
you could use this method to track submarines in real time.
In other words, it no longer mattered how quiet a sub was, just whether it was
there or not and moving. US Navy experts had been doing the math and realised
the time was rapidly approaching, if not already here, when the sensors were
sensitive enough and the computers fast enough to unmask all current subs. All
this sort of thing is generally known in academic circles but exactly what the
navy or intel agencies know is top secret. It is believed that the Russians have,
for decades, done a lot of theoretical work in this area. Since the early 1990s
Russia has had access to the fastest computer tech and latest commercial sensor
technology. Thus on paper this puts the Russians very close to a
breakthrough....
During the Cold War, the bulk of Russias submarine force in the Pacific
comprised attack submarines. Designed to find and kill enemy subs, their
primary task was to prevent enemy SSBNs from launching a nuclear assault and
kill enemy fast attack submarines before they found Russian SSBNs. In the 21 st
century undersea theatre, the Pacific Fleet will be a more rounded fleet with a
larger proportion of SSBNs just enough to keep the Americans on their toes.