esa_3

Fundamental of Energy Systems II

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Constraints:

Integration Demand - Supply
Physical:
Matching form value
Matching spatial scales
Matching temporal scales

Societal - Availability of:

Capital
Information
Incentives
Policy attention

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Constraints
Matching form value: need (and limits) of
conversion (e.g. radiantmechanical energy)
Spatial mismatch supply-demand: World
trade in fuels >1000 Billion $ (2003 data);
Temporal mismatch supply-demand (load
curves): Need for storage & interconnection
(capital intensive)
Magnitude mismatch supply-demand: Power
densities, e.g. renewables vs. urban energy
use
Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Constraints I: Space

Fossil fuels: Deposits determined by
nature
Extremely uneven distribution of
reserves: Oil<Coal<Gas
Transport costly:
Electricity<LNG<Gas<Coal<Oil
Inventory (storage) minimization
increases vulnerability (only 90 days oil
use in strategic reserves)
Renewables: Land availability as major
spatial constraint
Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

World Oil Trade 2008 (BP, 2009)

Energy Systems Analysis

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/gas/trademovement.asp#

Arnulf Grubler

US Gas Pipeline Transport Flows

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

World Oil Trade in 2004

(net trade of crude and oil products)
Million Tons

Billion US$

USA

-590.8

-165.3

Europe

-524.0

-147.1

Japan

-254.0

-42.0

China

-149.7

-40.1

Other importers

-862.2

-242.1

Middle East

959.7

269.4

Africa

319.7

89.8

Ex-USSR

314.3

88.2

Latin America

197.7

55.5

Other exporters

589.3

165.4

World Trade

2380.7

668.4

Source: BP Statistical Review of World energy 2005

How Much Do Fuels Costs the World?

The power of back-of-the envelope
calculations
World crude oil trade: 2.6 109 tons*

1000 109 $*
World oil use:
3.8 Gtoe
World energy use:
10 Gtoe
World GDP:
~45 1012$*
Rough (upper) estimate is:
?
* 2005 data from BP Stat. Review 2006 and IMF 2006
using (high) oil prices: <10%;
using avg. energy costs and long-term average oil prices: 3-5% of GWP

Energy Constraints II: Time

Why Electricity Load Curves Matter
Electricity cant be stored at reasonable costs;
storage of other energy forms also costly
Therefore: Electricity must be generated whenever
demand arises
Therefore: Need enough installed generation
capacity to meet peak demand (plus reserve margin),
even though system peaks very rarely (few hrs/yr)
Result: Some plants run only a few hours per year
(economics! efficiency!)
Peak load versus average load: Times 3
Reserve margin: 10-30% of peak load
Fractality: Daily, weekly, monthly, yearly load curves
Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

MW Electricity Demand US PGE

PG&E 2003 Representative Load Curves
20000
18000
16000
12000
10000
8000
6000
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall

4000
2000

un
da
y
S

ay
Sa
tu
rd

id
ay
Fr

Th
ur
sd
ay

W
ed
ne
sd
ay

M
on
d

Tu
es
da
y

ay

Sullivan, 2009

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

US PG&E 2003 Load Duration Curve

20000

1515-18% Reserve Margin Requirement

18000
16000
Load (MW)

Load (MW)

14000

Peak Capacity
(20% of capacity meets 1% of load)

14000
12000

Medium Load

10000
8000
6000

Base Load

4000
2000
0
0

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Hours

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

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MW

Spinning Reserve Requirement

The system must be able to ramp up or down at a
moment
moments notice to meet variation in load.
1,500

1,000

Reg. UP

Reg. Down

500

AGC Signal

-500

-1,000

-1,500

Energy Systems Analysis

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Daily Load Curves: Tokyo

Source: Mogouro et al., 2002

Arnulf Grubler

Linking
Space and
Time in
Tokyo:
Power
Density of
Demand
Source: Mouguro et al., 2002

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Tokyo Electricity Demand

vs. Solar Energy Supply

kWh
100000

Electricity demand

10000
Solar radiation

1000

Solar radiation
converted to electricity

100
10

km2

1
0

1000

2000

3000

Source: TEPCO & NIES, 2002

Spatial Power Densities of Energy Production and

Consumption

Oil fields

Coal fields

High-rises

Thermal
power
plants

Supermarkets

Houses

Industry

Cities

Steel mills,
refineries

Flat plate collectors

Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics
Central
solar
towers

Tidal

Hydro

Wind

Photosynthesis
Photosynthesis

Source: Adapted from Smil 1991:243

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Power Densities II
Spatial mismatch between demand and
supply requires imports
(domestic+international)
>80% of world energy use in urban high
demand density areas
Power density mismatch biggest for
renewables (except large hydro)
Hence: Renewables best suited for
niche markets: low population/energy
density areas (rural),
Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Orders of Magnitude:
1 W/m2 upper energy yield of biomass/wind
~10 kWh/m2 resulting annual energy yield
~30 MJ/m2
~300 GJ/ha
~10,000 liters/ha liquid fuel with 100%
conversion efficiency
~1,000 gal/acre (for the non-metric inclined)
~10 toe/ha tons oil equivalent yield
(max. yield, no losses!)
~3 toe/ha realistic yield incl. conversion losses
US transport energy use: ~600 Mtoe =
200 million ha = ~100% of all cropland
World energy use (PE): ~10 Gtoe =
3000 million ha = 200% of cropland area,
or 75% of forests

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Choice of Energy Systems and

Technologies
Need to satisfy first all energy systems
constraints
Need to satisfy demand for energy
services rather than fuels
Economics not all (invisible costs,
convenience, social visibility, etc.)
Choices available inverse of scale
(family home, plant, vs. planet)
Analysis needs large system
boundaries
Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Environmental Constraints

Local air quality (human health impacts)

Regional/transboundary air pollution
Climate change

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

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PM10 Exposures in 3200 Cities

Source: C. Doll, 2009, based on World Bank data

Exposure: PM10 concentration*City population (capita.g/m 3)

Size of circle indicates exposure (Quintiles)
Color of circle indicates underlying PM10 Concentration (g/m 3) range: 7-358 g/m 3

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Air Pollution in 3200 Cities with 2 Billion People

and WHO PM-10 non-/attainment Status
Source: C. Doll, 2009, based on World Bank data

Only 160 Million breathing clean air.

More than 1 billion need
improved urban air quality.
740 Million above
minimum WHO air quality standard.

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

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Sulfur
Deposition
(gS/m2)
Europe, ca. 1990

China,
A2 Projection for 2020

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

Updated Climate Impacts Synthesis

EU
target

IPCC TAR 2001

Energy Systems Analysis

Smith et al., PNAS Feb.26, 2009

Arnulf Grubler

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Source: Meinshausen & Hare, 2008

Source: Meinshausen & Hare, 2008

Climate targets (e.g. EU 2C) can only be formulated in probabilistic terms!

Energy Systems Analysis

Arnulf Grubler

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