Lecture #23

Flood Frequency Analysis

Flood Frequency Analysis

Purpose of flood analysis
Estimate discharges and chances of occurrence of major flood

events for the design of flood control facilities.

Probabilistic approach for flood analysis

Major hydrologic events are random and independent in nature.

A discharge is assigned a chance of occurrence.

Flood data
Annual series: A series consists of annual maximum discharges

(called annual flood peaks) at a gauging station. This is the most

common type of data used.
Partial series: A series consists of discharges larger than a prespecified flow rate at a gauging station.

Probability Paper
Probability paper is used to show the graphical relationship

between a variable (annual peak discharge) and its

probability of occurrence in a linear manner.

Probability Paper
The scale of probability paper

depends on the probability

distribution being used, such as
normal, log-normal, and logPearson type III distributions.
Ordinate: Value of random
variable (annual peak
discharge)
Abscissa: Probability of its
occurrence:
Exceedance probability
Nonexceedance probability

Probability Paper
for Normal Distribution

Exceedance Probability
vs. Return Period
Exceedance probability (P):
The probability that a flood event of a specified discharge will be equaled or

exceeded in one year.

Nonexceedance probability (1-P):

The probability that a flood event of a specified discharge will not be equaled

or exceeded in one year.

Exceedance Probability
vs. Return Period
Return period (T):
The average length of time between the occurrence of two events of

the same discharge. It is usually expressed in years. Return period is

also called recurrence interval.
T and exceedance probability (P) have the following relationship:
T = 1/P
P

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.1

0.2

0.5

T (Year)

100

50

25

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Probability Distribution
Plotting-Position Methods
Plotting-position method can be used to check the goodness-of-fit of

the probability distribution (in terms of exceedance probability).

Probability distribution for observed flood data of a period of n years
can be approximated based on Weibull formula according to the
following procedure:
Rank the data from the largest to the smallest.
Assign a rank of 1 to the largest event and a rank of n to the
smallest event.
For a rank of i, the exceedance probability Pi can be expressed in
the following formulas:
Pi

i
n 1

Plot the ranked data Qi with Pi in probability paper.

Example
Weibull Plotting-Position Method (1/2)
Original Data

Ranked Data
Pi

i
23 1

Example
Weibull Plotting-Position Method (2/2)

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Probability Distribution
Mathematical Models
Commonly used probability models in flood frequency

analysis include:
Normal distribution
Parameters: mean and standard deviation
Log-normal distribution
Parameters: mean and standard deviation
Log-Pearson type III distribution
Parameters: mean, standard deviation, and skew
coefficient

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Estimates of Distribution Parameters

The parameters (mean X , standard deviation S, and skew

coefficient g) for the population are unknown and may be

estimated from the observed data (called samples) using the
following equations:
n

x
i 1

(x x)
i 1

n 1

n ( xi x )3
i 1

(n 1)(n 2) S 3

In the above equations, xi are observed data with i ranges

from 1 to n.

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Flood Frequency Distribution

(Based on Normal Distribution)
The exceedance probability distribution function can be expressed

as follows:
X X KS
X = Random variable taken as peak discharges

X = Mean of the sample (the observed discharges)

S = Standard deviation of the sample (the observed discharges)
K = Frequency factor, which is a function of exceedance

probability for the normal distribution.

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Frequency Factor K for Normal Distribution

(Also for Log-normal Distribution)
P

T (years)

T (years)

0.0001

10,000

3.719

0.450

2.22

0.126

0.0005

2,000

3.291

0.500

2.00

0.000

0.001

1,000

3.090

0.550

1.82

-0.126

0.002

500

2.880

0.600

1.67

-0.253

0.003

333

2.760

0.650

1.54

-0.385

0.004

250

2.650

0.700

1.43

-0.524

0.005

200

2.576

0.750

1.33

-0.674

0.010

100

2.326

0.800

1.25

-0.842

0.025

40

1.960

0.850

1.18

-1.036

0.050

20

1.845

0.900

1.11

-1.282

0.100

10

1.282

0.950

1.05

-1.465

0.150

6.67

1.036

0.975

1.03

-1.960

0.200

5.00

0.842

0.990

1.01

-2.326

0.250

4.00

0.674

0.995

1.01

2.576

0.300

3.33

0.524

0.999

1.00

-3.090

0.350

2.86

0.385

0.9995

1.00

-3.291

0.400

2.50

0.253

0.9999

1.00

-3.719

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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Normal Distribution)

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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Normal Distribution)

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Flood Frequency Distribution

(Based on Log-normal distribution)
The distribution function can be expressed as follows:

Y Y KS y
Y = Random variable taken as log values of discharges. In other
words, Y = log(X).
Y = Mean of the sample in logarithm
Sy = Standard deviation of the sample in logarithm
K = Frequency factor, which is a function of exceedance

probability for the log-normal distribution (which is same as the

noral distribution).
The analysis follows the same procedure as for normal distribution.

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Frequency Factor for Log-normal Distribution

(Also for Normal Distribution)
P

T (years)

T (years)

0.0001

10,000

3.719

0.450

2.22

0.126

0.0005

2,000

3.291

0.500

2.00

0.000

0.001

1,000

3.090

0.550

1.82

-0.126

0.002

500

2.880

0.600

1.67

-0.253

0.003

333

2.760

0.650

1.54

-0.385

0.004

250

2.650

0.700

1.43

-0.524

0.005

200

2.576

0.750

1.33

-0.674

0.010

100

2.326

0.800

1.25

-0.842

0.025

40

1.960

0.850

1.18

-1.036

0.050

20

1.845

0.900

1.11

-1.282

0.100

10

1.282

0.950

1.05

-1.465

0.150

6.67

1.036

0.975

1.03

-1.960

0.200

5.00

0.842

0.990

1.01

-2.326

0.250

4.00

0.674

0.995

1.01

2.576

0.300

3.33

0.524

0.999

1.00

-3.090

0.350

2.86

0.385

0.9995

1.00

-3.291

0.400

2.50

0.253

0.9999

1.00

-3.719
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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Log-normal Distribution)

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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Log-normal Distribution)

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Flood Frequency Distribution

(Based on Log-Pearson Type III Distribution)

The distribution function can be expressed as follows:

Y Y KS y
Y = Sample of data taken as logarithms of discharges,
namely ( Y log X )

Y = Mean of the sample in logarithm

Sy = Standard deviation of the sample in logarithm

K = Frequency factor, which is a function of exceedance

probability and skew.

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Frequency Factor K
for Log-Pearson Type III Distribution (1/2)

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Frequency Factor K
for Log-Pearson Type III Distribution (2/2)

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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Log-Pearson Type III Distribution)

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Example - Flood Frequency Distribution

(based on Log-Pearson Type III Distribution)

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