J. Ind. Geophys.

Union ( July 2016 )

v.20, no.4, pp: 423-433

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

Vinod Kumar1, Ramesh Chand*2, M. Satya kumar3 and R. B. S. Narayan4
1

Shyam Bhawan, Ashok Nagar, Road No. 11, Kankarbagh Colony, Patna-800020
2
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Prithvi Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003
3
H.No. 6-3-565, Flat No. 301, Akshaya Apartment, Somajiguda, Hyderabad- 500082
4
Meteorological Office, C.S.I. Airport, NTC, Mumbai-400099
*Corresponding Author: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Cold fronts with associated westerly waves (mid-latitude low pressure systems: 30S-60S) move north of
30S from west coast of South Africa (10E or even from 40W) to west coast of Australia (120E) during
southwest monsoon season (winter season: southern hemisphere). They influence Indian summer monsoon
rainfall significantly. Geo-potential height field of 850 hPa levels undergoes large changes in association
with the movement of cold fronts/ upper air troughs from 040W to 120E / 140E and north of 30S/40 S
during April-May. Moisture generated over Atlantic and Indian Oceans (from east of 40W to 120E) by cold
fronts/upper air troughs augment south easterly trades through low level subtropical anticyclones during
summer monsoon season as they move eastwards and equator-wards. Positive (high) and negative (low)
anomalies of 850 hPa level geo-potential heights during April-May, north of 40S from 40W to 120E/140E
have been used to forecast rainfall trend over India during the first week of June.
Key words: Cold fronts/upper air troughs, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, anomaly of 850 hPa geo- potential
heights and quantitative forecast.

INTRODUCTION
The failure of long range forecast of summer monsoon
rainfall in some of the years, e.g., 2002, 2004 and 2009, has
shown that the parameters, which affect Indian Summer
Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) most, could not be identified and
put in use (Kumar et al., 2011b). The country experienced
a deficit of 13% in the summer monsoon of 2004. As
in 2002, this deficit was not predicted either by the
operational empirical models of IMD or by the dynamical
models at national and international centers (Gadgil et al.,
2005). Predictions generated by the leading international
centers using complex models of the coupled Oceanatmosphere system could not foreshadow the drought in
2009. Models had generally predicted above average rainfall
for June-August 2009 over most of the Indian region.
Unfortunately, this turned out to be almost the opposite of
what was observed. For assessing the probable occurrence
of a drought, one has to either rely on past history or on
the links with phenomena that could be predicted, such
as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasting
ISMR, and more particularly its extreme seasons (Excess/
Drought), has, therefore, remained a challenging task
(Francis and Gadgil, 2009).
The strength of southwest monsoon current is
measured by the speed of 850 hPa winds over Arabian Sea,
Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. At the time of onset of
monsoon over Kerala, a strong Cross Equatorial Flow (CEF)
gets established in the lower troposphere over the Indian
Ocean and south Asia at about 850 hPa. The monsoon
current transports moisture generated over the Indian

Ocean to the monsoon rain area. A Low Level Jet (LLJ) is

embedded in it (Joseph et al., 2001). The LLJ axis crosses
the equator as a southerly current in a geographically fixed
and narrow longitude band close to the east African coast.
It passes through peninsular India as a westerly current,
and its axis could be located anywhere from very low
latitudes to almost 25o N (Siji Kumar and Joseph, 2001).
Southwest monsoon extends eastwards as a distinct current
(winds) up to 30N and 140E, which is clearly seen up
to 850 hPa constant pressure level (Kumar et al., 2011a).
The flow entering the northern hemisphere during the
summer monsoon months is concentrated at three regions:
45E-55E, 80E-90E and 100E-120E corresponding to
the three branches of monsoon viz. Arabian Sea, Bay of
Bengal and South China Sea. The peaks of the flow are
at 50E, 80E and 105E, respectively (Mohanty and Das,
1994). Anomalies of meridional winds at 850 hPa show
that the positive anomalies are observed during normal/
excess monsoon months all along the west coast, e.g.,
during July 2009; June, August and September 2011, and
negative anomalies during deficient monsoon months, e.g.,
during July 2002 and 2004 and June 2009 and July 2011
( Kumar et al., 2011b). The sub-tropical high (Mascarene
High) undergoes short period intensity fluctuations due to
passage of extra-tropical westerly waves of the southern
hemisphere. The intensification of Mascarene High
strengthens the CEF in the form of east African LLJ, and
the corresponding monsoon current over the Arabian Sea
(Sikka and Gray 1981). SST-anomalies in Eastern Pacific
are directly connected to anomalies in the position and
intensity of low-level subtropical anticyclones. These low-

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Vinod Kumar, Ramesh Chand, M. Satya kumar and R. B. S. Narayan

level subtropical anticyclones in the eastern Pacific form

a chain of low-level subtropical anticyclones throughout
the global subtropics, and if one anticyclone displays an
anomalous position or intensity, the whole global chain of
low-level subtropical anticyclones manifest anomalies in
position and intensity (Asnani and Verma, 2007).
The passage of cold fronts across Southern Africa and
adjoining oceanic areas exercises marked influence on the
strength of CEF, which in turn leads to the organization
and intensification of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) and its northward movement. Such an event during
May end/June beginning results in the onset of southwest
monsoon over Kerala. It has been observed that the
absence of frontal systems (across Southern Africa and
adjoining southwest Indian Ocean) of moderate and strong
intensity during the 2nd fortnight of May, leads to a delay
in the onset of monsoon. This association could be used
as an aid in forecasting the onset of southwest monsoon
along the west coast of India about 4 to 7 days in advance.
Movement of cold fronts in South Indian Ocean (SIO)
also aid in the formation of intense low pressure systems
in Indian Seas (Kumar et al., 1983). Feeble/moderate cold
fronts (high of intensity of 1024/ 1030 hPa in their rear)
generally do not penetrate north of 25S and are seen
slipping south eastwards between longitudes 35E and 45E.
In their rear an elongated ridge from Atlantic Ocean (AO)
anticyclone extends up to South Mozambique Channel
and invariably forms a new anti cyclonic cell. The deep/
very deep cold fronts (high of intensity up to 1035 hPa/
more than 1035 hPa in their rear) generally move further
eastwards across Mozambique Channel. The Mascarene
high also moves eastwards from its normal position,
50E-60E. As the frontal system further moves eastwards
beyond 45E-50E, the AO anticyclone crosses into south
west IO and stagnates over oceanic area south of Malagasay
(Madagascar) establishing the pressure ridge again. This
causes southerly surge of cold air through the Mozambique
Channel and increases the CEF in Arabian Sea. This in
turn leads to strengthening of equatorial westerlies and
increase in horizontal wind shear. The most noteworthy
surface synoptic feature over Southern Africa is the
rhythmic eastward movement of troughs and ridges across
the south and east coasts of Africa. The normal variation
of pressure at 25S along the southeast coast over periods
of 4 to 7 days is from 1010 to 1025 hPa, but in extreme
cases a variation of about 30 hPa can also occur once in a
month or two. If the cold fronts across southeast Africa,
move in quick succession with overlapping period of one or
two days, the pressure ridge is not maintained and the CEF
becomes insignificant. As a result the strength of monsoon
westerlies decreases and horizontal shear over Indian seas

424

becomes insignificant or even negative, leading to a break

in monsoon situation (Kumar 1992).
Movement of cold fronts with associated westerly
waves from west coast of South Africa (10E: even from
40W) to west coast of Australia (120E) during south
west monsoon season influences Indian summer monsoon
rainfall (ISMR) significantly. Moisture feed from SIO to
Indian Seas is augmented by upper air cyclonic circulation
in addition to cold fronts/upper air troughs. Whenever a
moderate/deep cold front (upper air trough) approaches over
a station along 30S from 40W to 120E, temperature at
300 hPa is observed to be less than 40C/-45C by other
stations also along the route. A few upper air troughs at 850
hPa become more deep (south of 30S-20S) after reaching
east of 60E during monsoon season. It has been shown
by Kumar et al., (2014) that the absence of moderate/deep
cold fronts (upper air troughs) in SIO during southwest
monsoon season is the most common cause of deficient
monsoon in a year.
In the recent past, the importance of the changes in
circulation over SIO in the development of summer monsoon
and its inter-annual variability has been recognized by
many researchers. South Indian Convergence Zone (SICZ)
that forms an important element of Southwest monsoon
circulation system plays a crucial role in its development
and its intra-seasonal oscillations (active/ break cycle).
There is, in general, an inverse relationship between the
intensity of SICZ and summer monsoon (Prasad et al.,
2010). Different features of cloudiness over near equatorial
regions of IO during pre-monsoon months of April and
May have been found to contain signals indicating likely
performance of subsequent southwest monsoon. These
features have been quantified by assigning an index called
South Indian Convergence Zone (SICZ) Activity Index
(SAI) (Prasad et al., 2010, 2012) for developing a new
approach to long range forecasting of summer monsoon
rainfall in India. The ISMR is enhanced (decreased) during
positive (negative) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events: the
recent weakening of ISMR-ENSO relationship may be
interpreted in terms of frequent occurrences of positive
IOD in recent decade (Ashok et al., 2001). Some IOD
events precede ENSO events; three of the major ENSO
events (1972, 1982, and 1997) were associated with positive
IOD events (Yamagata et al., 2002). For improving long
range forecast of ISMR, the focus appears to have now
shifted to identifying circulation features, over the southern
hemisphere, which is intimately related to inter-annual
variability in summer monsoon. In this paper, an attempt
has been made to forecast summer monsoon rainfall over
India synoptically, by using anomalies of 850 hPa /700 hPa
geo-potential heights over the region 40W-120E.

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

DATA
All India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) data from 1948 to
2014 have been collected from IMDs website. Anomalies
of 850/700 hPa level geo-potential height during April-May
and 850 hPa RH and meridional winds (June-September)
for 68 years period from 1948 t0 2015 have been prepared
by using NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (U.S.A.)
web site. Satellite clouds pictures (IR) for 14 years period
from 2002 to 2015, and upper air charts of World Area
Forecast Centre, London, for the period 2012-2015 have
been used. ECMWF analyzed mean sea level pressure and
850 hPa wind speed charts for the period 2012-2014 have
been used in the study.

Analysis and Forecast

Characteristic features in the build up of moisture field
over Atlantic and Indian Oceans, its transport to Indian
sub-continent, anomaly in geo-potential height of 850/700
hPa level, movement of extra tropical low pressure systems
in southern hemisphere have been studied in relation to
development of summer monsoon in India. The features
in anomaly of geo-potential height of 850/700 hPa level
during the pre-monsoon months of April-May have been
found to be related to the performance of summer monsoon
over India. The characteristic features in the anomalies of
geo-potential height at 850/700 hPa level have been used
to develop a tool for long range forecasting of rainfall trend
over India during summer monsoon. For the purpose of
description, the characteristic features have been grouped
into three: (a) at least one pair of positive and negative
anomalies, (b) Continuous negative anomaly from 40
S to 30 N along 90E and (c) presence of a region of
negative anomalies above positive anomalies or a region
of positive anomalies completely surrounded by a region
of negative anomalies. IMDs long range forecast is given
in 5 ranges: Excess >110% of normal, Above Normal
(104-110%), Normal (96-104%), Below Normal (90-96%)
and Deficient < 90%. We have split the normal range into
two i.e., Active and Normal and have used the following
six categories: Excess: rainfall > 110% of normal, Above
Normal: 104% (110-98%), Active: 101% (107-95%),
Normal: 97% (103-91%), Below Normal: 92% (98-86%)
and Deficient: 88% (<90%). The error in all the categories,
based on Statistics, is 6%.
Generation of thick AS clouds in south IO south
of 25S/ 10S shows generation of sufficient moisture
in lower troposphere which is pumped into Indian
Seas by the moderate/ strong cross equatorial flow (
30 knots). Positive RH and wind anomalies over the
country are observed prominently during normal/excess
monsoon months in most of the cases. During 21 normal/
excess monsoon months, negative RH anomaly was not

prominently observed during any month over the country.

Moisture feedings were prominent from AO, IO (including
western coast of Australia) and Bay of Bengal (Kumar et
al., 2014). An examination of anomaly of 850 hPa RH
for 53 years for normal monsoon seasons from Jun - Sep,
it has been observed that high to highest value of positive
anomaly of RH is observed from 40S/south of 40S in
majority of cases over AO and IO. This type of anomaly
has been also observed during deficient monsoon years
1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1974, 1979 and 1987. But
marked negative RH anomaly was observed from north of
15S over AO and north of 20S over Indian Ocean during
1987. During 2002, 2004 and 2009, marked negative
anomalies were observed from south of 40S over AO and
Indian Ocean. During the year 1950, RH anomaly was not
present over AO and IO as there was no departure from
normal values of RH. Maximum positive anomaly of RH
has been observed from north of 25S/ 30S during 2005,
2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Marked negative
anomaly of RH during Jun-Sep has been observed from
east of 050E-060E/ north of 20S during 1988, which
was a La Nina year. This feature has been also observed
during 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994 and 1997.Extra tropical
low pressure systems are located between 40S - 50S and
their trough extends even up to 10S from east of 040W
to 140E and moisture is generated by these low pressure
systems from south of 40S. Transport of moisture from
south of 40S over AO and IO Ocean to Indian mainland
is clearly seen from the anomaly of 850 RH during Jun-Sep
1958 (Figure 1.) There is no change in RH values between
073E and 100E and north of 15N. If moisture generation
and transportation are affected from 40S/ south of 40S
over AO and IO, monsoon rainfall gets affected over India,
which can be seen from the anomaly of 850 hPa RH during
Jun-Sep 2002 (Figure 2.).
For foreshadowing summer monsoon rainfall over
India, transport of moisture from 40S/ south of 40S to
Indian subcontinent has been identified from the anomaly
of 850 hPa geopotential heights during the pre- monsoon
months of April-May. It is well known from the analysis
of surface and 850 hPa synoptic weather charts that high
pressure area (anticyclone) precedes low pressure area
(cyclonic circulation/ upper air trough) and vice versa.
Positive and negative anomalies at 850 geo-potential height
have been called in this study as high and low, respectively.
Highs and lows have been observed from 040W to 120E
along 30S/north of 30S or south of 30S during Indian
Summer Monsoon as sub-tropical highs are located near
30S-35S. Anticyclones are needed to transport moisture
generated by cold fronts/upper air troughs to monsoon
rain area through south easterly trades. For prediction of
monsoon rainfall trend over India, anomaly of 850 hPa/700
hPa geo-potential heights for 68 years (April and May
combined), has been used from 040W to 120E/ 140E,

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Vinod Kumar, Ramesh Chand, M. Satya kumar and R. B. S. Narayan

Figure 1. Anomaly of 850 hPa RH during Jun-Sep 1958

Figure 2. Same as Figure 1 but for the year 2002

north of 40S/ 60S to 30N. To correlate with the findings,
850 hPa RH and meridional winds anomalies of the same
area have also been examined. As mentioned above, the
characteristic features in the anomaly of geo-potential field
at 850/700 hPa level related to the development of summer
monsoon over India and used here for preparing long range
forecast of AIMR have been discussed below, in brief.

(a) At least one pair of positive and negative

anomalies
At least one pair of high (+ anomaly) and low (- anomaly)
combination (high- low or high- low- high or high-low-high-

426

low or high- low- low or low- high- low- high etc.) should
be present at 850 hPa north of 40S/ 30S between 040W
-120E, for normal monsoon rainfall (% of long period
average; rainfall range: 96-104, 97% with an error of
6%). High and low must have horizontal and latitudinal
width at least 25 and 5, respectively. Also, high and low
may remain separated by not more than 20 on horizontal
scale. One high and one low combination has been observed
during 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1958,
1961, 1962, 1967, 1969, 1970 (also under continuous
low), 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986,
1989, 1991 (another high with only 20 lat. width), 1993,
1994, 1997 (prominent at 700 hPa), 1998 (prominent at

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

Figure 3. Anomaly of 850 hPa geopotential height during April-May 1978

Figure 4. Same as Figure 3 but for the year 1997

700), 2003, 2007 (continuous high at 700 hpa) 2010,
2011 and 2014. The combination as high- low-high-low
has been observed during 1948, 1954, 1959, 1978 (Figure
3.), 1979, 1980, 1988, 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2013. When
high-low-high-low combination is observed 101% rainfall
(active rainfall range), with an error of 6%, can be
forecast. Deficient rainfall (% of long period average; rainfall
range: < 90), 88% with an error of 6%, can be forecast
if only low, as was the case in 1968, 2002, or high (as in
2012) or low-high combination (as in 1982, 1987, 2009)
is observed. The geo-potential conditions for normal and
deficient rainfall have been given in Table 1.
High pressure area dominated field at 850 hPa,
from southern hemisphere, has been observed during

1979, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2005,

2012, 2014 (low- high- low- low) and 2015. During the
period beginning from 1948, continuous high pressure
field at 850 hPa from southern hemisphere to northern
hemisphere was first seen in 1979 (low-high-low-high-low).
Anomalies with high- low features during high pressure
area dominated fields from 30S/40S to north of equator
or even up to 20N/30N do not exhibit clear trends for
forecasting normal/deficient monsoon rainfall in majority
of the cases. The anomalies at 700 hPa help in identifying
the features indicative of monsoon rainfall trend during
these years. High pressure dominated field at 850 hPa
from 40S has been observed during El Nino in 1982,
1987, 1997, 2004 and 2015 / La Nina: in 1998/ non-El

427

Vinod Kumar, Ramesh Chand, M. Satya kumar and R. B. S. Narayan

Nino in 1979, 1983, 2003, 2005, 2012 and 2014. During

the year 1982, a low is located in the rear of high and the
low became more marked at 700 hPa level. So, deficient
monsoon rainfall could be forecast in 1982 (an El Nino
year). During 1983, a low had encircled the high from
three sides and high, low, high and low combination was
maintained. However, the high-low feature is not clear. An
examination of the anomalies at 700 hPa level showed that
the high was located in the rear of the low and both were
located to the north of 40S. So, normal monsoon could
be forecast for 1983 monsoon. During the year 1987, a
low is located in the rear of high and a high is observed
over the low not in the rear. At 700 hPa, the high became
more prominent and was observed from 35S instead of
25S, but low ahead was much smaller (15). So, deficient
monsoon rainfall could be forecast for the year 1987 (an
El Nino year). During 1997, low is surrounded by a high
(Figure 4.). High pressure fields have been observed from
40S (between 0 to 50E) to 35N. When it was examined
at 700 hPa geo potential height, high was observed in the
rear of the low. So, normal rainfall could be forecast for
1997. During 2004, high is located in the rear of low along
40S and high is observed above the low from 35S. The
anomaly was examined at 700 hPa. It was found that the
low has split into two and horizontal width has decreased
(<25 long.). This confirms that it weakened at 700 hpa.
There is a similarity in location of high, low and high
in 1994 and 2004. But almost no change has been observed
in composition and width of high, low and high for 1994
even up to 500 hPa. So, for 1994 and 1997 (both El Nino
years) normal monsoon rainfall could be forecast. During
2012, a very small low is seen in terms of horizontal and
latitudinal width at 850 hPa between two highs. It became
slightly more marked at 700 hPa. During 2015, high-lowhigh combination is observed but low is smaller in width
at 850 hPa and the low has further weakened at 700 hPa.
The years 2004, 2012 and 2015 come in between normal
and deficient rainfall conditions. So, below normal rainfall
could be forecast in these three years. During 1998, low is
observed in the rear of high and 850 hpa pressure fields are
dominated by high pressure area. But at 700 hPa high has
been observed in the rear of low and both are located north
of 40S. So, normal monsoon rainfall could be forecast
for 1998. Anomalies at 700 hPa for the years 2003 and
2005 did not suggest any change in forecasting normal
rainfall. During 2014, low- high- low- low, combination
is observed along 40S. High pressure fields extend from
40S/ 0 to 25E to 40N. No change has been noticed at
700 hPa. So, normal rainfall could be forecast for 2014.
The feature for normal rainfall was not observed during
1966 (smaller high in the rear of low followed by low), 1968
(only low), 1972(smaller high in the rear of low followed
by high), 1992( high at two places above low 20W-20E

428

and 46E-76E), 2002 (an El-Nino year), 2007 (two lows

in the rear of high), 2008(only two lows along 40S), and
2009 (an El Nino year). Anomaly of geo-potential height
at 850 hPa for April-May 2002 shows only two lows along
40S (Figure 5.) but anomaly for Jun-Sep shows complete
high pressure dominant fields from southern to northern
hemisphere, 40S to 30N, having maximum positive
pressure anomaly between 40E-90E from 40S-20S. A
low is seen east of 95E along 40S. During the year 1968,
2002 and 2008, high was located south of 40S. In 2009,
low was observed in the rear of high (Figure 6.). If smaller
high (in terms of dimension/area) is located in the rear of
low, as in the case of 1966 and 1972, it should be examined
at 700 hPa. If normal high is observed at 700 hPa in the
rear of a low, then it fulfills the criteria of one high and one
low. It can be inferred that high is developing/descending at
850 hPa, and normal rainfall could be forecast. In case of
1966, and 1972 high shrunk further at 700 hPa in terms
of area. Deficient rainfall was the forecast during both the
years. During 2007 (non El Nino year), low is located in
the rear of high. But two small highs are also located in
the rear of low. As such, the anomaly was examined at
700 hPa geo-potential height. A prominent continuous
high has been observed from 40S in the rear of the low.
So, normal rainfall could be forecast for 2007. The features
for the year 2008 have been discussed below. (This forms
a part of verification)

(b) Continuous negative anomaly from 40 S to

30 N along 90E
This feature has been observed during the years 1955,
1960, 1962, 1963 (an El Nino year), 1964 (a La Nina
year), 1970 (a La Nina year), 1971 (a La Nina year), 1975
(Figure 7 and Figure 8: pertaining to a La Nina Year) and
2008 (at 700 hPa) and for which normal rainfall can be
forecast and which occurred during all these years. During
1966 and 1972 continuous low has been observed from
40S, but it is not covering 30N/90E fully. Anomaly of
850 hPa vector wind for 1975 (not shown here) shows
that a high was located from 40W - 0 between 40S20S and a big low from 90E - 0, between 60S-40S.
So, high-low combination was present and excess rainfall
occurred during 1975 (115.2%). During 1965 (an El Nino
year), continuous low was not observed over India when
anomaly was considered from 60S, so deficient monsoon
was forecast. Anomaly of 850 hPa vector wind confirmed
that high had shifted south of 50S between 70 E-100E
and one big low was observed far away and in the rear
between 20E - 20W/10S-50S. During 1990, a small
high (30W-10W/30S was surrounded by low and also
continuous low was observed from 40S to the whole of
India . A re-examination showed that high had already

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

Figure 5. Same as Figure 3 but for the year 2002

Figure 6. Same as Figure 3 but for the year 2009

developed at 700 hPa. Here high is surrounded by a
low or high is in the rear of a low from 30S or low is
above high, which comes under category (c) for normal
rainfall.
There is no need to re-examine the case under
continuous low. So, normal monsoon rainfall is the forecast
for 1990. During 2008, continuous low has not been
observed over India from 40S, but a trace of high was
observed between two lows along 40S, and continuous
low anomaly from east of 120E was observed over some
parts of India. As such, the anomaly has been rechecked
at 700 hPa from 140E. No high has been observed at
700 hPa along 40S but continuous low has been observed
from 140E and north of 40S (also from 60S). This type

of anomaly gradually descends from 700 hPa to 850 hPa

during ensuing monsoon months. Normal rainfall could
be forecast for 2008.

(c) Presence of a region of negative anomalies

above positive anomalies or a region of positive
anomalies completely surrounded by a region of
negative anomalies
This feature has been observed during 1950, 1984, 1985
(Figure 9.), 1989, 1990: already discussed under (b), 1995
(at 700 hPa), 1999 (La Nina year) and 2000. Normal rainfall
occurred during all these years. Low over high in 1995
has been observed in patches from west to east as such

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Vinod Kumar, Ramesh Chand, M. Satya kumar and R. B. S. Narayan

Figure 7. Same as Figure 3 but for the year 1975

Figure 8. Same as Figure 7 but from 60S

Figure 9. Same as Figure 3 but for the year 1985

the anomaly has been rechecked at 700 hPa geo- potential
height. Continuous low over both highs has been observed
from west to east at 700 hPa for the year 1995. So, the
year 1995 has been considered under this category. The
years 1950, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1995 and 2000 are
all non El Nino years.

430

The characteristic features in geo-potential anomaly

field at 850 hPa levels, as discussed above, and the forecast
of summer monsoon rainfall over India in individual years
have been summarized in Table 1. The realized rainfall in
each year, required for forecast verification, has also been
included.

Forecasting rainfall trend over India during summer monsoon

Table 1. Geopotential conditions

Geo-potential condition between
40W-120E and 40S-30N

and long range forecast of rainfall

Year (realized rainfall)

Forecast

Remarks

One high-one low combination,

with horizontal and latitudinal
width of at least 25 longitude
and 5 latitude. High and low
should be located within 20
longitude.

1949 (100.5), 1951(81.3), 1952 (91.8), 1953

(109.8), 1956 (113.6), 1957 (97.6), 1958 (109.8),
1961 (121.8), 1967 (100.8), 1969 (100.2), 1973
(107.5), 1974 (88.0), 1976 (102.5), 1977 (104.0),
1981 (99.8), 1983 (113.0), 1986 (87.2), 1991
(90.7), 1993 (99.1), 1994 (112.5), 1996 (103.4),
1997 (102.2), 1998 (104.0), 2003 (102.3), 2006
(99.6), 2007 (105.7), 2010 (102.0), 2011 (101.6),
and 2014 (88.0).

Normal

Forecast did
not materialize
in 1951, 1974,
1986 and 2014.

High-low-high-low

1948 (101.8), 1954 (103.1), 1959 (114.3), 1978

(109.2), 1979 (81.0), 1980 (103.9), 1988 (119.3),
1999 (95.6), 2001 (92.2), 2005 (98.7) and 2013
(105.7).

Active normal

Forecast did
not materialize
in 1979.

Continuous low

1955 (110.1), 1960 (100.6), 1962 (97.0), 1963

(97.9), 1964 (109.8), 1970 (112.2), 1971 (104.0),
1975 (115.2) and 2008 (at 700 hPa: 98.3)

Normal

Low above high or low is

surrounded by high

1950 (103.7), 1984 (95.6), 1985 (92.9), 1989

(100.9), 1990 (106.2), 1995 (98.1), 1999 (95.6)
and 2000 (92.2)

Normal

Only low

1968 (89.7) and 2002 (81.8)

Deficient

Low-high
1982 (85.5), 1987 (81.6), 2009 (78.2)
(low was more prominent at 700
hPa in 1982)

Deficient

High- weak low

2004 (86.2), 2012 (92.9), 2015 (86)

Below normal

Weak high-low
(High weakened at 700 hPa.)

1966 (86.8) and 1972 (76.1)

Deficient

High at two places above low

20W- 20E and 46E-76E

1992 (92.3)

Deficient

Active Normal: 101%, Normal 97%, Below Normal: 92%,

Forecast Verification
Details of the realized rainfall and the forecast in individual
years have been given in Table 1. The forecasts of normal
rainfall did not materialize during 5 years (1951, 1974,
1979, 1986 and 2014) out of 56 years. Likely deficiency
in rainfall in these years could not be foreshadowed. This
implies that either the pre-cursors for deficient rainfall in
these years were unavailable in height anomaly field at
850 hPA/700 hPa or the deficient rainfall might have been
the result of large intra-seasonal changes. It could not be
possible also to forecast above normal and excess rainfall.
However, 101% 6% rainfall have been also forecast under
active normal range. During 11 active monsoon years,
forecast was okay in 9 (81%) years. Forecast was also okay
during deficient monsoon years of 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972,
1982, 1987, 2002 and 2009. Deficient rainfall forecast for
1992 did not materialize but the realized rainfall was below
normal. Also, below normal rainfall was forecasted during
2012 and 2015. The realized rainfall was below normal
in 2012 and deficient in 2015. It may be mentioned here
that rainfall was deficient in Jun (-22%) and Jul (-19%)

Deficient: 88% with an error of 06%

in 1992 and in Jun (-28%) and Jul (-13%) in 2012. It has
never happened in 67 years, for which the data have been
presented here, that the rainfall was deficient in both the
months of the first half of the season, i.e., Jun and Jul.
Thus the forecast had captured the rainfall scenario during
the first half. A large part of the deficiency in rainfall during
the first half of 1992 and 2012 was made up during the
second half of the season. This was a result of improvement
in monsoon circulation system during the second half.
The year 2004 has been identified under below normal
rainfall condition, but realized rainfall was deficient. Below
normal rainfall occurred during 1952, 1985, 1991 and 2000
while the forecast was for normal rainfall. Forecast failed
in identifying some of the deficient monsoon years (1951,
1974, 1979, 1986 and 2014) out of a period of 67 years for
which the forecast have been discussed here. 2014 is the
only deficient monsoon year in which deficient monsoon
rainfall occurred only during Jun (57%). Normal monsoon
rainfall occurred in Jul (90%), Aug and Sept (108%). A
discussion on the reasons for the forecast going out in some
of the years did not form a part of the present study. The
same is being investigated and shall be reported separately.

431

Vinod Kumar, Ramesh Chand, M. Satya kumar and R. B. S. Narayan

CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

(i) Anomaly of 850 hPa/700 hPa geo-potential heights (April

and May combined) from 40W to 120E, north of 40S/
60S to 30N could be used for forecasting monsoon
rainfall trend over India.
(ii) Presence of at least one pair of high (+ anomaly)
and low (- anomaly) between 40W-120E/40S-30S is
required for normal rainfall (97% 06%). For deficient
rainfall (88% 06%), only one high or only one low along
40S is observed in the rear of a high or a smaller high
may be present in the rear of a low in the whole of the
longitudinal width, i.e., between 40W and 120E. If smaller
high (in respect of dimension) is located in the rear of a
low, anomalies should be reexamined for their presence at
700 hPa. If normal high is observed at 700 hPa in the rear
of a low, then it fulfills the criterion of one pair of high
and low and normal rainfall should be forecast. Similarly
for smaller low also, the anomaly at 700 hPa must be
checked. For high-low-high-low combination, Active normal
rainfall (101% 06%) could be forecast. If in a combination
of high-low, low is smaller in width horizontally or in
latitudinal direction at 850 hPa and again at 700 hPa, below
normal rainfall (92% 6%) should be forecast.
(iii) Anomalies with high- low feature during high
pressure area dominated field do not exhibit clear trends
for forecasting normal/deficient rainfall in several cases.
The anomalies at 700 hPa are required to be examined
during these years for identifying high-low pair.
(iv) If continuous negative anomaly is observed from
40S up to 30N along 90E at 850 hPa (including Indian
region), anomaly should be reexamined from 60S. If
continuous low is again observed from north of 40S to
30N then normal rainfall should be forecast. When
continuous low is not observed from 40S to 30N along
90E when anomaly has been considered from 60S,
deficient rainfall should be forecast.
(v) A low above high (or a high completely surrounded
by a low) is present north of 40S normal rainfall can be
forecast during a year.
(vi) Except for deficient rainfall in 1951, 1974, 1979,
1986 and 2014, forecast was in order in 63 out of 68
years, i.e., in about 92.6% years. Further, the methodology
has successfully identified deficient monsoon years 1965,
1966, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, and 2009. However,
the deficient rainfall year 2004 has been put under below
normal rainfall category.
(vii) The forecast could be issued during the first week
of June when the global data become available.
(viii) The methodology has been able to forecast the
trend of monsoon rainfall during El Nino / non El Nino /
La Nina as well as years of Positive Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) mode.

The authors are thankful to India Meteorological

Department for using their web site for monthly and
seasonal rainfall data for summer monsoon season for 67
years period. Authors are also thankful to NOAA Earth
System Laboratory (U.S.A.) for using their web site for the
preparation of anomalies of geo- potential height at 850
hPa/ 700 hPa for 68 years period, satellite clouds pictures
and WAFC charts, to NOAA Climate Prediction Centre/
NCEP for ONI data and to ECMWF for using their analyzed
mean sea level pressure/ 850 hPa wind speed charts. The
authors express their sincere thanks to the anonymous
reviewers for their critical comments and Chief Editor for
his encouragement and appropriate editing.

432

Compliance with Ethical Standards

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest
and adhere to copyright norms.

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