RPT GMTP 2016 08 PEEK

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD
An Election for the Sole of America
US SECTIONAL REPORT
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS AUGUST 2016
7/28/2016
1 August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved
Restricted & Confidential

general@GordonTLong.com
AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD

An Election for the Sole of America
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - AUGUST 2016
GLOBAL RISK .......................................................................................................................................... 25

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................. 25
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!".................................................................................................................................................... 25
LIQUIDITY is Neither WEALTH nor COLLATERAL ................................................................................................................................................ 26
Our Assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
James Rickards Global Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................ 39
MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 87
IMF ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 91
NEW-IMF Dark economic cloud over IMF-World Bank meeting ................................................................................................................. 91
NEW-IMF World faces 'lost year' as policymakers sleepwalk towards fresh crisis, warns IMF .................................................................. 92
NEW-IMF Beware self-fulfilling prophecy of crashing markets, IMF warns as growth is cut again ............................................................ 96
NEW-IMF IMFS WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORT Too Slow for Too Long ....................................................................... 100
NEW-IMF IMFs GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT (GFSR) Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization ...................... 102
NEW-IMF IMFs FISCAL MONITOR Acting Now, Acting Together ....................................................................................................... 104
IMF IMF warns of stagnation threat to G7 economies .............................................................................................................................. 105
IMF IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch ................................................................................................................................................... 107
IMF Tells Regulators to Brace for Global Liquidity Shock ......................................................................................................................... 109
IMF- Lagarde warns of lopsided global growth .......................................................................................................................................... 114
IMF warns of new threats to global economy due to excessive risk taking ................................................................................................ 115
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 117
NEW-OECD "Negative Rates Are Dangerous" OECD Chair Warns "Our Entire System Is Unstable" ................................................... 117
OECD World cannot spend its way out of a slump, warns OECD chief .................................................................................................. 125
OECD OECD Chief Economist: It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets ................................................................................ 127
OECD Leading Indicator Casts Doubt on US Economic Rebound .......................................................................................................... 129
OECD Warns 40 Million People Will Be Out of Work Next Year .............................................................................................................. 130
OECD Cuts Global Growth Projections Again ............................................................................................................................................. 133
WORLD BANK ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 133
WB Key Takeaways From the World Bank/IMF Meetings ....................................................................................................................... 133
WB Federal Reserve rate rise would cause panic and turmoil, warns World Bank .................................................................................. 134
WB World Bank - Global Economic Prospects Report .............................................................................................................................. 135
WB Warns Developing Nations Growth Slowing 2.8% Global 2015 Growth ........................................................................................ 136
WB Global Growth Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................ 139
WB- World Bank warns 100M Unemployed, 447M Working Poor, 600M Required for Population Growth Alone ................................. 140
WB- World Bank Says 300M Young People neither Working nor Studying ............................................................................................... 141
BIS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 143
BIS BIS Warns of Major Faultlines In Global Debt Bubble ..................................................................................................................... 143
BIS - BIS Quarterly Report ........................................................................................................................................................................... 145
BIS - BIS Slams The Fed: The Solution To Bubbles Is Not More Bubbles ................................................................................................. 145
BIS - Former BIS Chief Economist: "The System Is Dangerously Unanchored ......................................................................................... 146
BIS - Even the BIS Is Shocked At How Broken Markets Have Become ..................................................................................................... 148
BIS - Perhaps The BIS Can Share Its Next "Debt Trap" Warnings With Its Own Board Of Directors First ................................................ 152
BIS - The Next Time The BIS Wants To Warn About Monetary Kool-Aid, Bubbles, Lack Of Liquidity Or Complacency .......................... 155
BIS - "Low Volatility Everywhere" - BIS Sounds Alarm Alert On Pervasive Complacency Masking Systemic Shocks ............................. 156
BIS - BIS warns on 'violent' reversal of global markets ............................................................................................................................... 161
WEF WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ............................................................................................................................................................ 165
WEF Global Business Risks ..................................................................................................................................................................... 167
WEF The 2015 Global Risk Landscape ................................................................................................................................................... 168
WEF Evolving Risk Landscape (2007-2015) ............................................................................................................................................ 169
WEF Global Risk Exposures By Region ................................................................................................................................................... 170
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 171
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 173
Credit Denominated in US Dollars ............................................................................................................................................................... 173
IMFs Global GDP Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................... 173
IMF Economic Forecasts Are So Consistently Bad That it Says they Dont Understand the Problem! .................................................... 174
Total Global Credit-Market Debt Owed as % of GDP ................................................................................................................................. 175
57T Increase in Total Debt Since 2007 and $112T Since 2000 Dotcom Bubble Implosion ....................................................................... 176
Global Risk Landscape Grid ........................................................................................................................................................................ 177
Geopolitical Risks Are Climbing: Interstate Conflict is Highest Risk in 2015 .............................................................................................. 178
Global Risks of Highest Concern ................................................................................................................................................................. 178
Global Risks Versus Impact ......................................................................................................................................................................... 179
The economic balance of the world is shifting ............................................................................................................................................. 180
Global Conflict Intensity is heating up.......................................................................................................................................................... 181
August 2016 Edition

2

World Conflict Map ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 182

World Conflict Map Details........................................................................................................................................................................ 183
Global Conflict & Protest Intensity ............................................................................................................................................................... 184
Deutsche Banks Key Global Risk ............................................................................................................................................................... 184
Political and Financial Risk Now Outnumber Real Economy Risks ............................................................................................................ 185
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 186
Why Are The IMF, The UN, The BIS And Citi All Warning That An Economic Crisis Could Be Imminent? ............................................... 186
The G-30 Group Of Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World" ................................................................................. 188
A Generation in Crisis- - The World Needs 5 Million Jobs-Month To Stymie Youth Extremism................................................................. 191
Presenting SocGen's 5 Black Swans For 2016 ........................................................................................................................................... 192
Paul Brodsky: "Expect The Unexpected. It Might Be Time To Duck And Cover" ....................................................................................... 195
McKinsey Institute says global debt is $199 Trillion and UNSUSTAINABLE .............................................................................................. 198
Deutsche Bank's Ominous Warning: A "Perfect Storm" Is Coming In 2018 ............................................................................................... 202
Global Conflict Intensity Spikes To 7-Year High.......................................................................................................................................... 205
These Are 2015's "Black Swans" According To SocGen ............................................................................................................................ 206
"Globalization Is Turning In On Itself And It Is Each Man For Himself"....................................................................................................... 208
Putin Unleashes Fury at US Follies in Major Pivotal Speech ................................................................................................................... 211
Putin Warns Of Risk of Major Conflict, Says Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status ............................................................................... 212
Putin Accuses U.S. of Blackmail, Weakening Global Order ....................................................................................................................... 213
REFERENCE PAPERS Position Reminders Lest We Forget ................................................................................................................... 216
FOURTH TURNING ACCELERATING ....................................................................................................................................................... 216
AMERICAS GLOBAL RETREAT ................................................................................................................................................................ 227
THE OLD WORLD ORDER IS OVER ......................................................................................................................................................... 230
THE DEMOGRAPHIC THREAT TO DEVELOPED NATIONS ................................................................................................................... 231
THE RISK CONTINUUM ............................................................................................................................................................................. 234
GLOBAL TRENDS THE SIX FRAMING MEGATRENDS ........................................................................................................................ 236
GLOBAL THEMES TEN STRUCTURALTHEMES FOR STRATEGY ..................................................................................................... 238
DEBT SATURATION - A COLLAPSING PONZI SCHEME......................................................................................................................... 240
WINTER 2015 EVENT RISK DOMINATES ........................................................................................................................................... 242
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 249

GEO-POLITICAL RISK - SOCIAL, ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL ........................................................................................................ 251
EU REFUGEE CRISIS Tearing EU Apart........................................................................................................................................................... 251
NEW-EU REFUGEE - Latest Shock in Europe's Refugee Crisis: Austria Right-Wing Party Sweeps 1st Round of Presidential Election ..... 251
NEW-EU REFUGEE - Turkey Blackmails Europe on Visa-Free Travel ......................................................................................................... 253
NEW-EU REFUGEE - Switzerland Readies Military in Preparation For A New Wave Of Migrants ............................................................... 256
NEW-EU REFUGEE - Is Sweden Facing Another Migrant Invasion? ............................................................................................................ 262
NEW-EU REFUGEE - "There .......................................................................................................................................................................... 268
GROWING ELECTORATE ANGER Failing Social Contract .............................................................................................................................. 269
NEW-ELECTORATE - Why Voters Will Stay Angry ....................................................................................................................................... 269
PARIS SHOCKER ISIS Reality ........................................................................................................................................................................... 277
TERRORISM - "There's No Such Thing As ISIS": Journalist Destroys West's Terror Narrative, Warns Of Crackdown On "Dissidents" ..... 277
TERRORISM - Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel: ISIL poses a threat greater than 9/11. ....................................................................... 278
TERRORISM - Two Reasons the 'War On Terror' Will Always Fail ................................................................................................................ 279
TAXATION Setting the Stage for the Coming Taxation Explosion ..................................................................................................................... 281
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 281
TAXATION Taxes must be paid, says George Osborne, as he backs crackdown on havens. ............................................................... 281
TAXATION The Coming Tax Tsunami Will Erode Wealth and Capital at a Shocking Pace ................................................................... 283
DEMOGRAPHICS Aging Population & Youth Unempolyment........................................................................................................................... 285
CHART OF NOTE............................................................................................................................................................................................ 285
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Population ........................................................................................................................................ 285
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Aging ................................................................................................................................................ 285
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Global Aging By Country ............................................................................................................................. 286
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 288
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT - "A Generation In Crisis" - The World Needs 5 Million Jobs/Month To Stymie Youth Extremism ............... 288
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT - Four Ticking Global Time-Bombs Few Even Hear ...................................................................................... 289
GEO-POLITICAL RISK TENSIONS & CONFLICTS..................................................................................................................... 294

NEW-SAUDI-IRAN CONFLICT A Persian/Arab Sunni/Shiite Conflict ...................................................................................................... 294
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN Saudi Arabia Shows Obama How Dissatisfied they are With His Administration and the Iran Deal. .................. 294
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN - Deep Rifts With Saudi Arabia Overshadow Obamas Trip .................................................................................... 294
NEW-SAUDI-IRAN - Saudi Arabia, U.S. drifting apart despite Obamas efforts Russian media ......................................................... 296
ISIS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 299
ISIS THE SUNNI / SHIA /KURD PROBLEM ............................................................................................................................................ 300
ISIS - An Undercover Look Inside ISIS .................................................................................................................................................... 304
ISIS - Obama Says ISIS War Powers Request Not About 'Another Ground War' .................................................................................. 306
ISIS - President Obama Explains His "Boots On The Ground" ISIS-War Strategy................................................................................. 306
ISIS- Kobani Overshadows Larger Battles .............................................................................................................................................. 307
SYRIA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 310
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ..................................................................................................................................................................... 310
SYRIA - Pipeline Politics: Russia, Turkey Clash Over Energy As Syria Rift Shifts Focus To German Line ............................... 311
SYRIA - Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead ............................................. 314
SYRIA - Is The US Going To War With Syria Over A Natural Gas Pipeline? .................................................................................... 316
SYRIA - Why Did Obama Choose Syria? ............................................................................................................................................. 319
August 2016 Edition

3

SYRIA - Syria "Welcomes" Larger Russia Presence .......................................................................................................................... 320

SYRIA - This has the Earmarks of the Kennedy Ear "Cuban Missile" Crisis .................................................................................. 321
SYRIA - Syrian War You Are Not Being Told About ........................................................................................................................... 323
SYRIA - 25 Quotes .................................................................................................................................................................................. 324
SYRIA - What Coalition? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 327
SYRIA - US Supporting Fully an "Al Qaeda Operation" ..................................................................................................................... 329
SYRIA - Decision Already Taken to Bomb Syria ................................................................................................................................. 331
SYRIA - Market Patterns Before and Immediately After Conflict Begins ................................................................................................ 339
SOUTH CHINA SEA TERRITORIAL PROBLEMS ......................................................................................................................................... 341
CHINA SEA - Why China Wants Control of The South China Sea In 10 Charts .............................................................................. 342
CHINA SEA - "Strongly Dissatisfied" China Warns US "Accident" Is "Highly Likely" In South China Sea ................................. 348
CHINA SEA - PLA Officer: China Must Establish South China Sea ADIZ; Will "Fight .................................................................... 349
IRAN ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 352
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 352
IRAN A Mistake of Historic Proportion! Bibi Netanyanhu ................................................................................................................... 352
IRAN NBC Special Report: Nuclear Agreement Reached With Iran .................................................................................................... 355
YEMEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 356
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 356
YEMEN Strategic Position .................................................................................................................................................................... 356
YEMEN al-Houthis and Saleh Concentrations ..................................................................................................................................... 357
YEMEN The Decisive Storm Coalition ............................................................................................................................................... 357
YEMEN Global Oil Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................................................... 358
YEMEN Middle Eastern Oil Production & Chokepoints ........................................................................................................................ 358
YEMEN Chinese Import Countries & Oil Routes .................................................................................................................................. 360
YEMEN Major Crude Oil Trade Flows in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................ 361
YEMEN Regional Territorial Claims in the South China Sea ............................................................................................................... 362
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 363
YEMEN Risk of World War between NATO and Russia on Ukraine Escalation as Yemen Bombed for Third Day .......................... 363
YEMEN Yemen Ground Invasion by Saudi, Egyptian Troops Imminent .............................................................................................. 365
YEMEN Middle East Proxy War: Presenting The Massive "Decisive Storm" Coalition ....................................................................... 368
YEMEN Saudi Arabia Imposes Naval Blockade on Red Sea Strait, Deploys 150,000 Troops ........................................................... 369
YEMEN Another Middle East War Breaks Out: Saudis Begin Bombing Yemen, US Military Taking Action ....................................... 371
YEMEN Presenting The Theater Of War; Who Controls Yemen? ....................................................................................................... 376
YEMEN US-Armed Rebels Force Yemen President To Flee Country As Saudis Prepare For War ................................................... 378
UKRAINE EAST/WEST CONFLICT The New Colder War ..................................................................................................................... 383
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 390
NEW-COLD WAR - "They Should Be Met By Force" - US General Warns Russia Future Fly-Bys "Won't End Well For You" ............. 390
UKRAINE - Putin Is Becoming A "Vulture" Bond Investor ....................................................................................................................... 391
UKRAINE - West Further Infuriates & Antagonizes Russia with Debt Restructuring Pressures ............................................................ 392
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms Shipments.................................................................................................. 396
UKRAINE - US Taxpayers to Fund Ukraine Bailout via Bond Guarantee ............................................................................................... 400
UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms .................................................................................................................... 401
UKRAINE - White House Explains Where Your $1.3 Billion Went In Ukraine ........................................................................... 404
UKRAINE - Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don't Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover "Schemes" ............................... 407
UKRAINE - Putin Security Council Slams Obama Attempts at "New World Order" ............................................................................... 408
UKRAINE- A Russian Viewpoint .......................................................................................................................................................... 410
UKRAINE- This Is What Is Really Taking Place Behind The Scenes Of The Second US-Russian Cold War....................... 424
GEO-POLITICAL RISK GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE......................................................................................................... 426

NEW-BREXIT ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 426
NEW-BREXIT Brexit Is No Business of U.S.................................................................................................................................................. 426
NEW-BREXIT Cameron could not have asked for more from Obama's Brexit warning .............................................................................. 426
NEW-BREXIT The G-30 Group of Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World" ........................................................... 427
NEW-BREXIT TTIP is a Very Bad Excuse to vote for Brexit ........................................................................................................................ 428
GENERAL .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 429
GOVERNANCE The G-30 Group of Central Bankers Warn They Can "No Longer Save The World" ........................................................ 429
ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK A Threat to World Bank and US$ Reserve Status ..................................................... 433
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 436
AIIB Demanding Infrastructure .............................................................................................................................................................. 436
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 437
AIIB - The Nepo-Cold War, The World Bank and the AIIB Threat .............................................................................................. 437
AIIB - Washington Blinks: Will Seek Partnership With China-Led Development Bank ........................................................................... 439
AIIB - China "Is Not Another US", Does Not Seek "Yuan Hegemony" .................................................................................................... 440
AIIB - Obama administration proposes co-financing projects with new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ............. 442
AIIB - Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait AND Saudi Arabia have applied Goodbye Petrodollar! .............................................................. 445
AIIB - Obama continues to be humiliated by the rising anti-dollar alliance ............................................................................. 447
AIIB - Did De-Dollarization Just Reach Escape Velocity? ....................................................................................................................... 449
EMERGING BRICS ALLIANCE NEW MULTI-POLAR WORLD .................................................................................................................. 453
MULTI-POLAR-Money Supply The New World Economy ....................................................................................................................... 453
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalist Impose Monetary Hegemony .............................................................................................................. 455
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalists Controlling the Political Process ........................................................................................................ 457
ADVANCING GLOBAL FINANCIAL REPRESSION ....................................................................................................................................... 460
HENRY KISSINGER CALLS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER (NWO) ............................................................................................................... 462
KISSINGER- Henry Kissingers World Order ............................................................................................................................................ 462
August 2016 Edition

4

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 465

AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX ............................................................................................................................................. 465
NEW-BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD ................................................................................................................................................ 466
NEW-BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD ........................................................................................................................................................... 466
NEW-CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS ....................................................................................................................... 467
NEW-CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS .................................................................................................................................. 467
NEW-CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE ......................................................................................................................... 468
NEW-ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX ......................................................................................................................................... 469
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 ......................................................................................................................... 471
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY ............................................................................................................................................... 471
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES ......................................................................................................................................................... 472
NEW-COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES .................................................................................................................................... 473
AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL ................................................................................................................................................................................ 474
GLOBAL MACRO: TIPPING POINTS ...................................................................................................................................... 475

OVERALL CATEGORY RANKINGS Q2 2016 ................................................................................................................................................... 475
CURRENT RANKINGS Versus Longer Term Benchmarks ............................................................................................................................... 476
TREND NOTES...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 480
CHANGES TO RANKINGS - Longer Term Benchmarks ...................................................................................................................................... 481
CHANGES TO MACRO MAP$ ROADMAP$ - Longer Term Trends .................................................................................................................... 482
TIPPING POINTS: TOP 5 FOCUS - MAY 2016 .................................................................................................................................................... 484
NEW-I - RISK REVERSAL .............................................................................................................................................................................. 484
NEW-II - CHINA HARD LANDING .................................................................................................................................................................. 498
NEW-III - EU BANKING CRISIS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 502
NEW-IV BOND BUBBLE .............................................................................................................................................................................. 509
NEW-V- GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK ........................................................................................................................................................ 517
REGIONAL .............................................................................................................................................. 521

UK THE SHOCKING BREXIT REFERENDUM VOTE ....................................................................................................................................... 521
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 522
NEW-CHARTS - UK A Shocking Outcome Cameron Resigns ............................................................................................................. 522
NEW-CHARTS - UK The Regional Brexit Vote Will Scotland Revisit its Referendum? ....................................................................... 523
NEW-CHARTS - UK 400 Richest Lose $127B ON Friday BREXIT Announcement Alone ..................................................................... 523
NEW-CHARTS - UK Banks to Be Most Impacted by BREXIT ................................................................................................................. 524
NEW-CHARTS - UK Danske Bank Expecting A Recession in UK .......................................................................................................... 524
NEW-CHARTS - UK Brexit Polls .............................................................................................................................................................. 525
NEW-CHARTS - UK Current Account Deficit & Sterling Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate ..................................................................... 525
NEW-CHARTS - UK Since the Post GFC Stimulus Recovery, A Steady GDP Decline ........................................................................... 526
NEW-CHARTS - UK Steady Long Term GDP Erosion ............................................................................................................................ 526
NEW-CHARTS - UK Net Trade an Economic Drag ................................................................................................................................. 527
NEW-CHARTS - UK US versus UK Productivity Growth ......................................................................................................................... 528
NEW-CHARTS - UK Global Leader in Financial Services Net Exports ................................................................................................... 528
NEW-CHARTS - UK Global Leader in Exports as % of GDP .................................................................................................................. 529
CHARTS - UK - U.K. Productivity growth remains dismal........................................................................................................................... 529
CHARTS - UK - The UK's increasingly polarized politics ............................................................................................................................ 529
CHARTS - UK GBPUSD Volume trended higher into the election - above peak seen around the Scottish referendum. ...................... 530
CHARTS - UK The UK's financial sector has the highest exposure to China .......................................................................................... 530
CHARTS - UK UK retail sales -0.5% in March, biggest fall since May last year and breaking longest run of increases in 5 years ....... 531
CHARTS - UK - Deficit One of Worst of Developed Economies ................................................................................................................. 531
CHARTS - UK Private Sector Surplus Eliminated .................................................................................................................................... 532
CHARTS - UK Self-Employment At Record High ........................................................................................................................................ 533
CHARTS - UK Rate Voting Shows Preference for Inflation Report Months ............................................................................................... 534
CHARTS - UK Below 2% Target But 2nd Highest in EU ........................................................................................................................... 534
CHARTS - UK CPI Below Target for 7th Month ........................................................................................................................................ 535
CHARTS - UK Real-Wage Decline Longest Since At Least 1964 ........................................................................................................... 536
CHARTS - UK Wage-Neutral Unemployment Rate Falling ...................................................................................................................... 536
CHARTS - UK CPI Too Low for BOE and Falling .................................................................................................................................... 537
CHARTS - UK GDP .................................................................................................................................................................................. 538
CHARTS - UK Population Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 538
CHARTS - UK - Crushed Disposable Income ............................................................................................................................................. 539
CHARTS - UK - BOE Balance Sheet Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 540
CHARTS - UK - Lending .............................................................................................................................................................................. 541
CHARTS - UK - Unemployment .................................................................................................................................................................. 541
CHARTS - UK - GDP - Pre and Post Recession Levels ............................................................................................................................. 542
CHARTS - UK - GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................... 542
CHARTS - UK - BOE Rates ......................................................................................................................................................................... 543
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 544
NEW-RESEARCH Brexit: the worlds most complex divorce begins ....................................................................................................... 544
NEW-RESEARCH Ratings agency Moody's says Britain at risk of credit downgrade ............................................................................ 546
NEW-RESEARCH S&P says Britain's 'AAA' credit rating untenable after Brexit vote ............................................................................. 547
NEW-RESEARCH The Banks Hardest Hit Because of Brexit .................................................................................................................. 547
NEW-RESEARCH The Brexit Delusion .................................................................................................................................................... 549
August 2016 Edition

5

NEW-RESEARCH Brexit: 5 Things Investors Need to Know .................................................................................................................. 553

NEW-RESEARCH Brexit vote would affect UK's top credit score, says Standard & Poor's ................................................................... 557
NEW-RESEARCH Mark Carney issues stark warning on global growth as storm clouds gather ........................................................... 558
RESEARCH British General Threatens Military Coup If Corbyn Elected ................................................................................................ 559
RESEARCH The End of Britain? Martin Armstrong On Jeremy Corbyn's Resurrection Of Marx ........................................................... 561
RESEARCH What is Jeremy Corbyn's programme for government? ...................................................................................................... 564
RESEARCH What does Jeremy Corbyn stand for? Jeremy Corbyn's policies and views explained ...................................................... 570
RESEARCH Who is Jeremy Bernard Corbyn? ........................................................................................................................................ 574
RESEARCH The City Of London Has Turned Britain into A "Civilized Mafia State" ............................................................................... 579
RESEARCH What Remains of the UK Middle? ....................................................................................................................................... 580
RESEARCH Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts ....................................................................................................... 581
RESEARCH Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading .................................... 584
RESEARCH Consensus See UK Rate Increase in February 2015 Possibility of November ............................................................... 587
RESEARCH BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................... 589
RESEARCH - UK workers' wage squeeze is longest since the 1870s ....................................................................................................... 592
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 593
UK - What you need to Know....................................................................................................................................................................... 593
UK - Joins Currency War - Down 8% YTD ............................................................................................................................................... 594
UK - Specter of Stagflation Haunts UK ........................................................................................................................................................ 595
UK - Public Policy turns Against Austerity and PM Cameron .............................................................................................................. 596
UK - Doomsday Debt Machine .................................................................................................................................................................... 597
UK - QE Extension Coming ......................................................................................................................................................................... 600
UK - Small Business Credit Squeeze Now Acute - Loan Rejections Rising ....................................................................................... 602
UK - Technically in a Depression ............................................................................................................................................................. 603
EU THE EU IS BEGINNING TO COME APART AT THE PERIPHERAL! ......................................................................................................... 606
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 606
NEW-CHARTS Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote OUT? ........................................................................................ 606
NEW-CHARTS Europes Anti-Establishment Shake-Up .......................................................................................................................... 606
NEW-CHARTS UK A Major GDP Contributor to Europe ......................................................................................................................... 607
CHARTS Negative Interest Rates on 40% of Outstanding European Government Bonds ..................................................................... 607
CHARTS Once Unorthodox Negative Rates Now Increasingly Orthodox ............................................................................................... 607
CHARTS EU Savings Rates Surge in Countries With NIRP .................................................................................................................... 608
CHARTS 1 Million Syrian Refugee Arrivals By Land & Sea in 2015 ....................................................................................................... 608
CHARTS Main Migrant Route to Germany ............................................................................................................................................... 610
CHARTS Alternative Migrant Route to Europe......................................................................................................................................... 610
CHARTS Many Migrant Routes Being Taken .......................................................................................................................................... 611
CHARTS Many Migrant Routes Being Taken- Air, Land and Sea ........................................................................................................... 612
CHARTS Migrants Entering Hungary ....................................................................................................................................................... 613
CHARTS Schengen Non Shengen EU Countries ................................................................................................................................. 614
CHARTS Schengen Non Shengen EU Countries-2 .............................................................................................................................. 614
CHARTS Migrant Detentions .................................................................................................................................................................... 615
CHARTS German Asylum Applications ................................................................................................................................................. 616
CHARTS Euro Area and EU28 Unemployment Rates ............................................................................................................................. 617
CHARTS Unemployment Rates by Country Seasonally Adjusted ........................................................................................................ 617
CHARTS Inflation Tracks Commodity Prices ............................................................................................................................................ 618
CHARTS Tracing EU Dis-Inflation towards Deflation ................................................................................................................................ 618
CHARTS Bond Rout Reduces Negative Yielding Govt Debt by ~1T Euros ........................................................................................... 620
CHARTS Eurozone GDP Since 1999 ....................................................................................................................................................... 621
CHARTS "Real GDP in the Euro area is lagging behind other major economies since the...Crisis" ...................................................... 621
CHARTS "European firms are paying out more of their earnings as dividends than US firms are." ....................................................... 622
CHARTS "Over 1/2 of all government bonds yield less than 1%." ........................................................................................................... 623
CHARTS A weaker Euro has been good for the STOXX 600 .................................................................................................................. 624
CHARTS Eurozone equity inflows continue to rise .................................................................................................................................. 624
CHARTS YTD flows into European equity funds ..................................................................................................................................... 624
CHARTS 3 Mo EURIBOR Drops to -0.001% - Below Zero for First Time? ............................................................................................. 625
CHARTS Negative Yields Have Become the New Norm in the Euro area ............................................................................................ 625
CHARTS "Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield" ................................................................. 626
CHARTS Feb Retail Sales Y-o-Y +3.0% versus 2.8% est. ...................................................................................................................... 626
CHARTS Draghi Had To Deliver or it would have been a Collateral Massacre....................................................................................... 627
CHARTS EU Disconnect Between Equity Prices & Earnings and Dividends .......................................................................................... 627
CHARTS Eurozone is the Biggest Drag on Global Profits ....................................................................................................................... 628
CHARTS Eurozone Government & Private Debt 276% of GDP (Excluding Financials) ......................................................................... 628
CHARTS EU PMIS Rolling Over .............................................................................................................................................................. 629
CHARTS Eurozone Banks Too Big To Be Bailed Out! ............................................................................................................................ 630
CHARTS Eurozone Area Consumer Confidence May Be Misleading ..................................................................................................... 631
CHARTS Eurozone GDP & Recession Pattern ........................................................................................................................................ 631
CHARTS EU-Area PMI Shows Sustained Deterioration .......................................................................................................................... 632
CHARTS Euro Area CPI Seen Below 1% for 11th Month ......................................................................................................................... 632
CHARTS Euro Area Domestic Demand has lagged US & Japan by 9% since 2010 .............................................................................. 633
CHARTS Euro Area Inflation Levels ......................................................................................................................................................... 634
CHARTS Geo-Political Tensions May Weigh on Confidence .................................................................................................................. 635
CHARTS Stalling Euro-Area Recovery Heightens ECB QE Pressure ..................................................................................................... 635
CHARTS Industrial Production Slows In Line With PMIs ......................................................................................................................... 636
CHARTS ZEW Expectations Signals Slowdown Ahead .......................................................................................................................... 637
CHARTS Euro-Area July PMI ................................................................................................................................................................... 637
CHARTS Corporate Borrowing Spreads Remain Wide ........................................................................................................................... 638
August 2016 Edition

6

CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ................................................................................................................................. 638

CHARTS EU Financial Conditions Deteriorating ...................................................................................................................................... 639
CHARTS EU Confidence .......................................................................................................................................................................... 640
CHARTS - Slow Money Growth May Stoke Deflation Concerns ................................................................................................................ 640
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation at Lowest Level Since 2009 Individual Countries ................................................................................... 641
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation Aggregate ................................................................................................................................................ 642
CHARTS - 10M Part-Time Workers Underemployed in EU ........................................................................................................................ 643
CHARTS - Euro-Area Housing Prices Decline ............................................................................................................................................ 644
CHARTS - Euro-Area Trade Surplus ........................................................................................................................................................... 645
CHARTS - Euro-Area Composite PMI ......................................................................................................................................................... 646
CHARTS - EU Area Weakness ................................................................................................................................................................... 647
CHARTS - EU Area GDP ............................................................................................................................................................................. 648
CHARTS - EU Area PMI .............................................................................................................................................................................. 649
CHARTS - EU Area PMI .............................................................................................................................................................................. 650
CHARTS - EU Real Rates ........................................................................................................................................................................... 651
CHARTS - EU -NON Euro Members GDP RELIANCE ............................................................................................................................... 652
CHARTS - EU GLOBAL GDP GROWTH CONTRIBUTION ....................................................................................................................... 653
CHARTS - EU PMI ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 653
CHARTS - EU CPI ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 655
CHARTS - Regional Risk-Reward ............................................................................................................................................................... 656
CHARTS - Europe's "Core" Problem is France ...................................................................................................................................... 657
CHARTS - Germany's Preoccupation with Inflation is More Than It Would Seem ............................................................................. 660
CHARTS - Evidence OF Global Slowing Now Indisputable ................................................................................................................... 661
CHARTS - EU Credit Downgrades, France and UK On Tap ..................................................................................................................... 663
CHARTS - Perceived Reduction in Risk, A Temporary Aberration ............................................................................................................. 665
CHARTS - Dangerous Delusional Divergences ...................................................................................................................................... 667
CHARTS - IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS ................................................................................................................................. 668
CHARTS - Air Cargo Shipments Confirm Slowing Global Growth .............................................................................................................. 669
CHARTS - Eurozone Misery Indices Never Been Higher ....................................................................................................................... 670
CHARTS - Euro Currency ............................................................................................................................................................................ 672
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 677
NEW-RESEARCH Anti-establishment tsunami sweeps Europe .............................................................................................................. 677
NEW-RESEARCH Alan Greenspan says British break from EU 'is just the tip of the iceberg ............................................................... 680
RESEARCH Migrant Crisis Sparks Balkan Border Battles As EU Buckles Under Overwhelming Refugee Flow .................................. 681
RESEARCH Buiter: Migrant Crisis "May Signal The Beginning Of The End" For EU ............................................................................. 686
RESEARCH "The End of The EU": Merkel's "Heroic" Refugee Response May Destroy Union, Slovakia Warns .................................. 687
RESEARCH Europe's Refugee Crisis "Out of Control", Hungary PM Rages "This Is A German Problem, Not An EU Problem" ......... 694
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ..................................................................................................................................... 697
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................... 699
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble .............................................................................. 700
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP.............................................................................................................. 702
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case ................................................................................ 702
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision ............................................................................................................................................................ 704
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................... 707
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................... 708
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate.................................................................................................................................... 710
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ............................................................................. 712
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ........................................................................................................................................................... 714
RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems ...................................................................................... 714
RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets ........................................................................ 717
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ................................................................................................................................................. 719
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ........................................................................................................ 720
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece ................................................................ 723
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................................................................................................... 725
PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ....................................................................................................................... 725
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ........................................................................................................................................ 728
PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees. ................... 730
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ..................................................................................................... 735
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ................................................................................................................. 739
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ......................................................................................................... 741
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent ......................................................................................... 742
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities" .......................................................................................... 743
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................... 749
ITALY ANTI ESTABLISHMENT 5 STAR PARTY DCAPTURES MAJORAL ELECTIONS ............................................................................. 751
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 752
CHARTS - ITALY Lack of Capital Expenditure Has Inevitably Lead to Italian Budget Shortfalls ............................................................ 752
CHARTS - ITALY Debt & NGDP Diverge ................................................................................................................................................. 752
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Assets versus NGDP ............................................................................................................................... 753
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bank Loans Outstanding By Sector Households, Government & Non-Financial ......................................... 754
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Gross Investment versus France ...................................................................................................................... 754
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Real Labor Productivity Per Person Italy versus France .............................................................................. 755
CHARTS - ITALY Measuring Italian Bad Debt ......................................................................................................................................... 755
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Debt Maturity Profile w/ Implied Roll-Over and Estimated Deficits .................................................................. 756
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Interest Paid on the Public Debt ....................................................................................................................... 756
CHARTS - ITALY Target2 Liabilities Held By Banca dItalia .................................................................................................................... 757
CHARTS - ITALY Marketable Securities Held by Banca dItalia .............................................................................................................. 757
August 2016 Edition

7

CHARTS - ITALY Italian Real Annual Gross Wages ............................................................................................................................... 758

CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Gross and Net Debt Comparisons as % of NGDP ...................................................................... 758
CHARTS - ITALY Non-Performing Loans by Region ............................................................................................................................... 759
CHARTS - ITALY Gross Italian Impaired Loans....................................................................................................................................... 760
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Government Debt .............................................................................................................................................. 760
CHARTS - ITALY Banks Non-Performing Loans .................................................................................................................................... 761
CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth ................................................................................................................................................ 762
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ................................................................................................................. 762
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment .................................................................................................................................................. 764
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ..................................................................................................................................................... 764
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ......................................................................................................................................... 765
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................... 766
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................... 767
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ....................................................................................................................................................... 767
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ........................................................................................................................................... 768
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................... 769
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ......................................................................................................................................................... 770
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 771
NEW-RESEARCH Italy's Anti-Establishment 5-Star Movement Delivers Dramatic Victories In Key Mayoral Races ............................ 771
RESEARCH How Italy Will Fail And Drag Down The European Project ................................................................................................. 772
RESEARCH Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising "Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable"............. 782
RESEARCH Italy Is "Willing To Temporarily Suspend Schengen" In Response To Refugee Crisis 09-02-15 Zero Hedge .................. 785
RESEARCH Italy Non-Performing Loans Hit A New Record High ....................................................................................................... 790
RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low ............................................................................... 795
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ....................................................................................... 797
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ........................................................................................................................................................ 801
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ....................................................... 803
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ......................................................................................................................................... 807
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ................................................................... 808
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People .............................................................................................................................. 810
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar ...................................................................................................................................... 814
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise!............................................................................. 816
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................... 817
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................... 819
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily .................................................................................................................... 822
FRANCE MARINE LE PEN PLEDGES FRENCH REFERENDUM ................................................................................................................... 824
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 824
NEW-CHARTS FRANCE Marine Le Pen Pledges French Referendum Vote ...................................................................................... 824
CHARTS FRANCE Total Net Government Liabilities ............................................................................................................................ 824
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. .......................................................... 825
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ............................................................................................................. 825
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ......................................................................... 825
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................... 826
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ............................................................................................................................................. 826
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ............................................................................................. 828
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................... 828
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ....................................................................................................................... 829
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................... 830
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out........................................................................................ 830
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens ................................................................................................ 831
CHARTS - FRANCE - GDP ......................................................................................................................................................................... 832
CHARTS - FRANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT .................................................................................................................................................. 833
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUDGET DEFICIT ................................................................................................................................................... 834
CHARTS - FRANCE - TAX v GDP .............................................................................................................................................................. 835
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUSINESS CONFIDENCE...................................................................................................................................... 836
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 837
RESEARCH Hollande says France in state of economic emergency ..................................................................................................... 837
RESEARCH France Just Enshrined Its "State Of Emergency" In the Constitution ................................................................................. 837
RESEARCH France Changes Constitution to Protect "Emergency" Police Powers from Court Challenges .......................................... 838
RESEARCH France's Far-Right Party Calls For Nation To "Re-Arm Itself", Revoke Muslims' Passports .............................................. 840
RESEARCH Moody's Downgrades France, Blames "Political Constraints", Sees No Material Reduction in Debt Burden ................... 841
RESEARCH When It Comes To Total Debt, Greece Is Not That Much Worse Than France (Or The USA) ................................... 845
RESEARCH Economic Malaise Sparks Political Crisis in France ........................................................................................................... 846
RESEARCH - France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government ............................................................ 848
RESEARCH Prime Minister Manuel Vall Resigns .................................................................................................................................... 850
RESEARCH - European Voters Are Revolting; France Warns "Situation Is Grave for France, Europe" ................................................... 850
RESEARCH - Steady Breakdown Underway ........................................................................................................................................... 853
RESEARCH - France Loses its Coveted and NEEDED AAA Rating ..................................................................................................... 857
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................................................................................................... 859
FRANCE - An astoundingly high number of French people don't have faith in Hollande 05-02-15 BI ....................................................... 859
FRANCE - French utility EDF seeks to cut workers 10-week holiday quota 05-26-15 FT ......................................................................... 859
FRANCE - What You Need to Know ........................................................................................................................................................... 861
FRANCE - Key Indicators ............................................................................................................................................................................ 862
FRANCE: Sharpest Drop in Private Sector Output in Four Years .............................................................................................................. 865
FRANCE - Quits on Austerity - Never a Doubt This Would Happen........................................................................................................ 868
August 2016 Edition

8

FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ........................................................................................................................................................... 869

FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism ................................................................................................................................................... 871
FRANCE - Losing Its Way through Political Illusions and Lies ................................................................................................................... 872
FRANCE - Uncompetitive ............................................................................................................................................................................ 873
FRANCE - Titan Tire Calls Out French Labor ............................................................................................................................................. 875
FRANCE - France Responds to Titan Tire .................................................................................................................................................. 877
FRANCE - What Happens In France When Companies Fire People ......................................................................................................... 879
FRANCE - Hollande's Economically Insane campaign Promise ................................................................................................................. 880
GERMANY GERMANY MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT TO THE EUROPENA UNION THAN BREXIT! ........................................................... 882
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 882
CHARTS - GERMANY GDP Growth ........................................................................................................................................................ 882
CHARTS - GERMANY 10-year Bund yields have now moved above JGB yields ................................................................................... 883
CHARTS - GERMANY German Industrial Output -0.5% MM, +0.1% YY ................................................................................................ 884
CHARTS - GERMANY Germany now leading the way back up in Euro Zone ........................................................................................ 884
CHARTS - GERMANY On rolling bi-weekly basis, the 10-yr Bund yield rise of 43 bps is about as big as it gets in recent history ....... 885
CHARTS - GERMANY - 1.179% 30 Year Bond Yield ................................................................................................................................ 885
CHARTS - GERMANY 2 Year Sovereign Yield Goes Negative .............................................................................................................. 885
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury ................................................................................................ 886
CHARTS - GERMANY German & Japanese Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close ................................................................................ 887
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Y European Yields.......................................................................................................................................... 888
CHARTS - GERMANY German Unemployment ...................................................................................................................................... 889
CHARTS - GERMANY German Core Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 889
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury ................................................................................................ 889
CHARTS - GERMANY Expectations Component Peaked In January ..................................................................................................... 890
CHARTS - GERMANY Ifo Rolls-Over....................................................................................................................................................... 890
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Bund Below 1% ..................................................................................................................................... 891
CHARTS - GERMANY - Inflation ................................................................................................................................................................. 891
CHARTS - GERMANY - IFO Investor Confidence ...................................................................................................................................... 892
CHARTS - GERMANY - ZEW Expectations ................................................................................................................................................ 893
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 895
NEW-RESEARCH - END OF THE EU? Germany warns FIVE more countries could leave Europe after Brexit ...................................... 895
NEW-RESEARCH - Europe's Woes: The Escalating Cost To Germany .................................................................................................... 897
NEW-RESEARCH - Germany May Be A Bigger Threat To The European Union Than Brexit .................................................................. 900
RESEARCH - German Finance Minister: Expansive policies may have laid foundation of next crisis ...................................................... 902
RESEARCH - Furious Germans Stage Massive Anti-Islam Protest ........................................................................................................... 902
RESEARCH - Germany Has Repatriated Over 366 Tonnes Of Gold From New York And Paris .............................................................. 910
RESEARCH - U.S. Will Station New Nuclear Weapons in Germany against Russia ................................................................................. 916
RESEARCH - Refugee Crises At Dangerous Tipping Point As Hungary Deploys Army, Germany Loses Patience ................................. 917
RESEARCH - Why Volkswagen Is Systematically Important For Germany And Europe ........................................................................... 922
RESEARCH - Europe's Woes: The Escalating Cost to Germany ............................................................................................................... 924
RESEARCH - Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo ...................................................................................................... 927
RESEARCH - Five charts that show Germany is heading into recession 10-19-14 The Guardian............................................................ 928
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September ............................................ 931
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak............................................................................................ 933
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges ...................................................................................................................... 935
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners............................................................................................. 938
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany................................................................................................................ 939
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ........................................................................... 944
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel ....................................................................... 945
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" .......................................................................................................................... 947
IBERIAN PENINSULA NIRP IS KILLING US SAYS SPAINS SECOND BIGEST BANK. ................................................................................ 949
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 949
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains Debt-to-GDP ................................................................................................................................................... 949
CHARTS - SPAIN Spains & Portugals Unemployment Rate June 2015 Seasonally Adjusted ........................................................... 949
CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ..................................................................................... 949
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ......................................................................................................................... 950
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans........................................................................................................................................ 951
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ................................................................................................................. 952
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 952
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ....................................................................................................................... 953
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................... 954
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 955
NEW-RESEARCH - NIRP is Killing us, Wheezes Spains Second Biggest Bank ............................................................................ 955
RESEARCH - Did Austerity Really Win Out in Portugal? ...................................................................................................................... 956
RESEARCH - Spain's Economic Recovery Is "One Big Lie" ................................................................................................................. 957
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ................................................................................................. 960
RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ................................................................................................. 963
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs ................................................................................................ 967
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion ................................................................ 969
RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam ................................................................................................................ 970
IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................... 972
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ........................................................................................................................ 973
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic .................................................................................................................................................................... 974
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem ......................................................................................................................................................... 975
August 2016 Edition

9

IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ................................................................................................. 980
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost....................................................................................................................................... 982
IBERIA - Bank Deposits Were Leaving, Now they Are Fleeing .................................................................................................................. 983
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem .............................................................................................................................................. 984
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support .............................................................................................................................. 985
CHINA: A LARGE FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS OUTFLOW PROBLEM! .................................................................................................................. 994
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 994
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing 2002-2015 .................................................................................................................... 994
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP ............................................................................................................... 994
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Ratio of Aggregate Financing to Nominal GDP ................................................................................................. 995
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Growth vs Nominal GDP Growth .................................................................................... 995
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Annual Increase in Aggregate Finance vs The Annual Increase in Nominal GDP ........................................... 996
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Ratio of Increase in Aggregate Finance to the Increase in Nominal GDP ........................................................ 996
NEW-CHARTS How Much Credit Will It Ztake? ....................................................................................................................................... 997
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Projected to 2025 ......................................................................................................... 997
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Annual Increase - Yuan ................................................................................................ 998
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Annual Increase US$ ................................................................................................ 998
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Credit Growth US versus China ...................................................................................................................... 999
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP Projected to 2025 ............................................................................................ 999
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP Projected to 2025 .......................................................................................... 1000
NEW-CHARTS Non-Performing Loans .................................................................................................................................................. 1000
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Will Not Grow at 12.6% a Year ................................................................................................... 1001
NEW-CHARTS A Different Scenario A Gradual Slowdown in Credit Growth ..................................................................................... 1001
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Projected to 2025 Under a Gradual Slowdown Scenario........................................................... 1002
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Annual Change Yuan 2003-2025 est. ..................................................................................... 1002
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Annual Change US$ 2003-2025 est. ...................................................................................... 1003
NEW-CHARTS The Ratio of Aggregate Financing to GDP (Under a Different Scenario) ..................................................................... 1003
NEW-CHARTS Approaches to Chinese Funding? ................................................................................................................................. 1004
NEW-CHARTS The Balance of Payments Surplus Wont Be Enough! ................................................................................................. 1004
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Balance of Payments = Change in FX Reserves ............................................................................................ 1005
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Balance of Payments = Balance of Payments Must Balance! ........................................................................ 1005
NEW-CHARTS Breakdown of Chinas Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................ 1006
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Current Account ................................................................................................................................................ 1006
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Capital Account ................................................................................................................................................. 1007
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Financial Account .............................................................................................................................................. 1007
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Net Error & Omissions ...................................................................................................................................... 1008
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Foreign Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 1008
NEW-CHARTS Is a Chinese Devaluation a Possibility? ........................................................................................................................ 1009
NEW-CHARTS Is a Change in the Chinese RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) a Possibility? .................................................................. 1009
NEW-CHARTS Changing the RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) - 1 .......................................................................................................... 1010
NEW-CHARTS Changing the RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) - 2 .......................................................................................................... 1010
NEW-CHARTS Is A Chinese QE a Possibility?-1 ................................................................................................................................... 1011
NEW-CHARTS Is A Chinese QE a Possibility?-2 ................................................................................................................................... 1011
NEW-CHARTS A Breakdown of the Peoples Bank of Chinas Assets .................................................................................................. 1012
NEW-CHARTS Chinese QE Would BE Potentially Different It Could Cause a Destabilizing Inflation Shock .................................... 1012
NEW-CHARTS Chinese CPI Annual Percentage Change Remember Tiananmen Square! .............................................................. 1013
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Yuan Devaluation, RRR Reductions and QE Coming..................................................................................... 1013
CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ....................................................................................................................................................... 1014
CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ........................................................................................................ 1015
CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves ................................................................................................................... 1015
CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1016
CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings ............................................................................................................................................ 1016
CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ......................................................................................................................................... 1017
CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ................................................................................................................................... 1017
CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ............................................................................................................................... 1018
CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ......................................................................................................................................... 1018
CHARTS Chinese New Loan Breakdown .............................................................................................................................................. 1019
CHARTS CAI Suggests China Economic Activity Below Reported GDP .............................................................................................. 1019
CHARTS Chinese Bank NPLs Are Gradually Rising Every Quarter ...................................................................................................... 1020
CHARTS A Tale of Two Economies ....................................................................................................................................................... 1020
CHARTS Chinas Investment Share of GDP Higher than Ever in Japan or Korea ................................................................................ 1022
CHARTS China Treasury Holding Have Peaked But US Commercial Banks Taking Uo the Slack ..................................................... 1023
CHARTS China 2014 Labor Force Declines First Time in at Least Two Decades ................................................................................ 1023
CHARTS Ponzi Finance: Chinese Firms Are Issuing More Debt Just to Pay Interest .......................................................................... 1024
CHARTS Chinese Global Trade Index 2001 ....................................................................................................................................... 1024
CHARTS Chinese Imports Exports..................................................................................................................................................... 1026
CHARTS Chinas Economic Weakness Wider Deeper In September ................................................................................................ 1027
CHARTS Sinking Li Keqiamg Index Contrasts With Stable GDP .......................................................................................................... 1028
CHARTS China is the Undisputed Engine of Global Growth ................................................................................................................. 1029
CHARTS China Has Been Consuming Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials ............................................................................... 1029
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment & Consumption in China Y-o-Y Growth ........................................................................................ 1030
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment Rises Least Since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 1031
CHARTS Economic Indicators Point to Lower Growth than the Headline Figures ................................................................................ 1031
CHARTS Gains of Real Estate Development Investment 1/10th of 2010 Pace ..................................................................................... 1032
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1032
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China for Chinas Domestic Use as a % of GDP ..................................................................................... 1033
August 2016 Edition

10

CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1034
CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low...................................................................................................................................... 1036
CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .............................................................................. 1036
CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ......................................................................................... 1037
CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .............................................................................................................................. 1038
CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ........................................................................................... 1038
CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 1039
CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases ............................................................................................................................................................ 1040
CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ........................................................................... 1040
CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................... 1041
CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ................................................................................................................................ 1041
CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ................................................................................................ 1042
CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ........................................................................................... 1043
CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss ........................................................................................................ 1043
CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ................................................................................................................................................................. 1044
CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern...................................................................................................................................................... 1045
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 1046
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 1047
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1048
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 1049
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 1049
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 1050
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 1050
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 1051
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 1051
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 1052
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 1053
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 1053
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 1054
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 1054
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 1055
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 1056
CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 1056
CHARTS Chinese PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1057
CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ....................................................................................................................... 1058
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 1059
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 1059
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 1060
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 1060
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 1061
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 1061
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 1062
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 1063
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 1063
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 1064
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 1065
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 1065
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 1065
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 1066
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 1067
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 1067
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1068
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 1068
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 1069
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 1070
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 1071
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 1072
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 1072
CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1072
CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 1073
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 1074
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 1074
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 1075
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 1075
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 1076
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 1077
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 1078
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 1079
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 1079
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 1081
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 1082
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 1083
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1084
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1085
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1086
CHARTS - CHINA Industrial Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 1087
August 2016 Edition

11

CHARTS - CHINA - Urban Fixed Asset Investment .................................................................................................................................. 1088

CHARTS - CHINA Retail Sales .............................................................................................................................................................. 1089
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1090
CHINA "China Is A Monumental Doomsday Machine" Stockman Warns .............................................................................................. 1090
CHINA China Faces Capital Flight Punishment ..................................................................................................................................... 1093
CHINA China's Credit Conundrum ......................................................................................................................................................... 1097
CHINA China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years ........................................................................... 1099
CHINA China Outflows Said To Surpass A Staggering $300 Billion in Under Three Months ............................................................... 1102
CHINA China FX Reserve Drop Is Collateral Damage from Yuan Fall .................................................................................................. 1105
CHINA This Isn't 1994: China and That First U.S. Rate Hike ................................................................................................................ 1107
CHINA Expect Regional Ripples, Not Global Waves, From China Selloff ............................................................................................. 1109
CHINA China Risks Downward Spiral of Falling Markets, Growth......................................................................................................... 1110
CHINA China to the Rescue ................................................................................................................................................................... 1112
CHINA Yuan Devaluation Helps Attain U.S. Monetary Tightening Without Fed Rate Hikes ................................................................. 1113
CHINA Devaluation Promises to Boost Exports, But Adds Stability Risk .............................................................................................. 1115
CHINA Risk of a Vicious Circle on Market, Profit Declines .................................................................................................................... 1117
JAPAN: KURODA UNSURE WHETHER NIRP & MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING .................................................................................... 1119
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1120
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN The Biggest Debt to GDP Ratio in the World! ................................................................................................ 1120
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Export & Import Growth in Yen Terms ........................................................................................................... 1121
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Annual Growth in Debt in Yen ........................................................................................................................ 1121
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Fiscal & Monetary Balance Sheets ................................................................................................................ 1121
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Assets versus Japanese GDP Divergence As US TAPER Ended. .................................................... 1122
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN USDJPY & NIKKEI 225 since BOJs NIRP Announcement .......................................................................... 1122
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Contraction PLUS Increase Rate of Contraction .............................................. 1123
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Balance Sheet versus Japanese Manufacturing PMI ............................................................................ 1123
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Real GDP Trajectory......................................................................................................................... 1124
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Real GDP Trajectory with QE Drags ................................................................................................ 1124
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Real Household Consumption less Imputed Rent ........................................................................... 1125
CHARTS - JAPAN Eire Similarities with Abenomics Period and 2007-2009 Crisis ............................................................................... 1125
CHARTS - JAPAN Nikkei 225 versus Kuroda's regime shift to NIRP .................................................................................................... 1126
CHARTS - JAPAN Largest unrealized losses on Margin Buying since Lehman ................................................................................... 1126
CHARTS - JAPAN Exports Y-o-Y versus USDJPY ................................................................................................................................ 1127
CHARTS - JAPAN Imports Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................... 1127
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Holding of Outstanding Japanese Debt ........................................................................................................... 1128
CHARTS - JAPAN NIKKEI In Near Free-Fall ......................................................................................................................................... 1128
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese Bank Stocks Collapsing as they Follow JGB 2-10 Yield Curve Spread ................................................. 1129
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese Buying of Foreign Stock .......................................................................................................................... 1129
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Owns 52% of Entire Japanese ETF Market Assets ........................................................................................ 1130
CHARTS - JAPAN GDP Q-o-Q Quintuple Dip Recession .................................................................................................................. 1130
CHARTS - JAPAN Real Y-o-Y Cash Earnings with Abenomics ............................................................................................................ 1131
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJs Accelerating Purchases of Equity Funds Seen as Driving Force of Tokyo Share Markets ......................... 1131
CHARTS - JAPAN More than a Fourth of Japans Population is Over the Age of 65 ........................................................................... 1132
CHARTS - JAPAN IMFs Forecast of Japanese Population Growth...................................................................................................... 1132
CHARTS - JAPAN Prefectures with More Seniors Saw Steeper GDP Losses ..................................................................................... 1133
CHARTS - JAPAN Aging Population Will Continue Dragging Down Growth......................................................................................... 1133
CHARTS - JAPAN Fewer, Older Citizens Facing Larger Debt Burden ................................................................................................. 1134
CHARTS - JAPAN 20 Years Later China Follows Japans Pattern ....................................................................................................... 1135
CHARTS - JAPAN Financial Repression Gets Heavier in Japan .......................................................................................................... 1135
CHARTS - JAPAN Inventory Build Up Keeps Q1 GDP Afloat ............................................................................................................... 1136
CHARTS - JAPAN 48 Month Trade Balance Deficit .............................................................................................................................. 1137
CHARTS - JAPAN Y-o-Y Contracting Imports ....................................................................................................................................... 1137
CHARTS - JAPAN Monetary Base versus USDJPY .............................................................................................................................. 1138
CHARTS - JAPAN Japan National Debt Rises To 1,053,357,200,000,000......................................................................................... 1138
CHARTS - JAPAN 1.174% 30 Year Bond Yield ..................................................................................................................................... 1140
CHARTS - JAPAN 2 Year Yield Goes Negative..................................................................................................................................... 1140
CHARTS - JAPAN Savings Rate Goes Negative ................................................................................................................................... 1140
CHARTS - JAPAN Stagnate Housing Starts with Historic Low 35 Year Mortgages .............................................................................. 1141
CHARTS - JAPAN Non-Resident Net Investment in Japanese Stocks ................................................................................................. 1141
CHARTS - JAPAN Shifting Demographics - Birth versus Deaths .......................................................................................................... 1142
CHARTS JAPAN Nikkei Strength is all Relative ............................................................................................................................... 1142
CHARTS - JAPAN Trade Balance .......................................................................................................................................................... 1143
CHARTS - JAPAN 10 Year Treasury Approaching Zero (12-27-14) ..................................................................................................... 1144
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Reserve Balances ............................................................................................................................................ 1145
CHARTS - JAPAN Macro Crisis Zones .................................................................................................................................................. 1146
CHARTS - JAPAN Demographics .......................................................................................................................................................... 1147
CHARTS - JAPAN Fiscal Deficit versus BOJ Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................ 1147
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Economy versus the Rest of the World ...................................................................................................... 1148
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Decline in Real Interest Rates .................................................................................................................... 1149
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese GDP Annualized Q-o-Q ........................................................................................................................... 1150
CHARTS - JAPAN Bankruptcies Due to Depreciating Yen .................................................................................................................... 1151
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese & German Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close ...................................................................................... 1151
CHARTS Q2 GDP Downturn Even Worse Than Though or Looks........................................................................................................ 1153
CHARTS Real Incomes Falling at Fastest Rate in a Decade ................................................................................................................ 1153
CHARTS Japan Exports Remained Subdued ........................................................................................................................................ 1154
CHARTS Past Yen Strength Pushed Production Off-Shore .................................................................................................................. 1154
August 2016 Edition

12

CHARTS Japans Export Majors Lost Tech Battle ................................................................................................................................. 1155

CHARTS Japans Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................ 1156
CHARTS Japan Adjusted Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 1156
CHARTS Japan BoP Current Account Balance .................................................................................................................................. 1157
CHARTS 5T Yen of JGB Selling ............................................................................................................................................................. 1157
CHARTS Sovereign Debt % of Tax Revenue ........................................................................................................................................ 1158
CHARTS Public Sector Debt Issuances 2013 as % GDP ...................................................................................................................... 1159
CHARTS - GDP Trend ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1159
CHARTS - CPI Trend ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1160
CHARTS - JAPAN - GDP Resurgence ...................................................................................................................................................... 1160
CHARTS - JAPAN - BOJ Balance Sheet .................................................................................................................................................. 1161
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1162
NEW-JAPAN Did Bank Of Japan's Kuroda Just "Capitulate" Too? ................................................................................................ 1162
NEW-JAPAN XXXXX .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1164
NEW-JAPAN Japan's Broken Economy - 25 Years of Failed "Stimulus" & "Temporary Illusions"........................................................ 1164
NEW-JAPAN Abenomics "Death Cross" Strikes As Japan PMI Plunges To 40-Month Lows ...................................................... 1169
JAPAN Safes Sell Out In Japan, 1,000 Franc Note Demand Soars As NIRP Triggers Cash Hoarding ........................................ 1171
JAPAN "There Will Be Hyperinflation" Japanese Lawmaker Warns "Kuroda Got It Wrong" With NIRP .................................... 1173
JAPAN Abenomics Fails Miserably As Japan's Workers "Get Nothing" In 2015 .......................................................................... 1176
JAPAN Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan ........................................................ 1179
JAPAN S&P Downgrades Japan from AA- To A+ On Doubts Abenomics Will Work - Full Text .................................................. 1182
JAPAN Elderly Japanese Population Hits New Record - Demographic Death-Rattle Continues ................................................ 1184
JAPAN Bank Of Japan Buying Power Runs Dry: "If They Don't Increase Now, It's Going To Be A Shock!" ............................. 1188
JAPAN Abe Ratings Crash to Record Lows, Japan Lowers Minimum Voting Age ....................................................................... 1190
JAPAN Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt ................................................................................. 1193
JAPAN Japan Still the Worlds Top Credit? ....................................................................................................................................... 1194
JAPAN Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation Target ........................................................................................ 1195
JAPAN Japanese trading firms to cut investments, sell assets ...................................................................................................... 1196
JAPAN The BOJ Ups The Ante ............................................................................................................................................................ 1198
JAPAN Is Japan Kaput? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1199
JAPAN - Pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen a year May Become "Open Ended" ............................................................................................... 1202
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 1204
JAPAN - 3 Arrows of ABE-nomics Not Working ........................................................................................................................................ 1207
JAPAN - Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................................. 1209
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 1210
JAPAN - Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses 200tn........................................................................................ 1212
JAPAN - Abe Approval Rating Plunges ................................................................................................................................................. 1214
JAPAN - What the Japanese been Buying ............................................................................................................................................. 1215
JAPAN - Japan May Matter More Than Tapering .................................................................................................................................. 1217
JAPAN - Japan Finances Worse than at Wars End ............................................................................................................................. 1220
JAPAN - BOJ: "The days of constructive ambiguity is over! ......................................................................................................... 1221
JAPAN - Abenomics Third Arrow Growth Strategy Underwhelms .......................................................................................................... 1222
JAPAN - 2nd ABE-nomics $200B Stimulus Package Approved ......................................................................................................... 1224
JAPAN - Worlds Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on ABE-nomics' 2% Inflation Goal ....................................................... 1225
JAPAN - The Abe-nomics Failure ........................................................................................................................................................... 1228
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT & KEY NOTES .......................................................................................................................................... 1230
JAPAN - What You Need to Know............................................................................................................................................................. 1232
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ..................................................................................................................... 1235
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% of GDP in 5 Years .................................................................................................................................. 1235
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ........................................................................................ 1239
JAPAN - How Japan's National Debt Grew ............................................................................................................................................... 1240
JAPAN - ABE-nomics About Lowering Real Interest Rates ................................................................................................................ 1241
JAPAN - Japanese Bonds Have Lost Their Ability to Price Risk ........................................................................................................ 1242
JAPAN - Japanese Structural Problems a "Canary" for Western Developed Economies ................................................................ 1246
JAPAN - Shinzo Abe Hasn't the Stomach for the Heavy Lifting Needed to Accompany ABE-nomics........................................... 1248
JAPAN - A Credit Squeeze Leads Deflationary Leg Down .................................................................................................................. 1251
JAPAN - Some Japanese Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ............................................................................................................. 1252
JAPAN - The ABE (Asset Bubble Evaluator) Index ............................................................................................................................... 1254
JAPAN - Regional Risk-Reward ................................................................................................................................................................ 1255
JAPAN - Now the Frontrunner of Outright Monetization. .................................................................................................................... 1256
JAPAN - Yen Devaluation ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1257
JAPAN - New Bank of Japan Policy - 2% Inflation in 2 Years ............................................................................................................. 1258
JAPAN - Appoints BOJ Governor Firmly Committed to Printing Money ........................................................................................... 1260
EMERGING MARKETS EM CURRENCIES FEEL BREXIT FALLOUT ........................................................................................ 1262

EMERGING MARKETS ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1262
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1262
NEW-CHARTS Brexit Effect Ripples through Emerging Markets ........................................................................................................ 1262
NEW-CHARTS Markets Collapse After Brexit ........................................................................................................................................ 1263
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market Currencies Against the Dollar Since Pre- Brexit June 23rd .......................................................... 1264
CHARTS EM Wave is the Third Wave in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ......................................................................................... 1264
CHARTS Countries Scaled to the Un sustainablilty of Their Debt ......................................................................................................... 1264
CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies ............................................................................................ 1265
CHARTS Estimated Assets in Sovereign Wealth Funds versus Oil & Gas Related -1 ......................................................................... 1267
CHARTS Emerging Market CAPEX A Dominate Part of their Economies-2 ......................................................................................... 1267
CHARTS Emerging Market Collapse Accelerated in May When Global Market Peaked ...................................................................... 1268
August 2016 Edition

13

CHARTS Emerging Market USD Corporate Bond Maturities ................................................................................................................ 1269

CHARTS MSCI EM FX Index - New 6 Year Lows ................................................................................................................................ 1269
CHARTS EM FX Loses Since FOMC Meeting Brazil Noticeably Worse ............................................................................................ 1270
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since FOMC ....................................................................................................................... 1271
CHARTS EM FX Debasement By Country Since 9/7/09 ....................................................................................................................... 1271
CHARTS Brazilians Scramble to Protect their Store of Value (Coming to Other Countries) ................................................................. 1271
CHARTS Brazil Real GDP Y-o-Y% ........................................................................................................................................................ 1272
CHARTS Brazil Real / US$ versus Brazil 5Y CDS ................................................................................................................................ 1273
CHARTS Brazil Change in Yields Compared to Turkey and Mexico .................................................................................................. 1274
CHARTS Brazil Sovereign Gross Debt/GDP Government versus BI Simulation ............................................................................ 1274
CHARTS Brazil Number of days to start a business Worst in the Major Countries! ........................................................................ 1275
CHARTS Brazil Real Reaches Record Low as Budget Pessimism Rises .......................................................................................... 1275
CHARTS 5Y CDS Spreads Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia & Peru .............................................................................. 1276
CHARTS AFRICA-Chinese Investment Offers in Africa Since 2000 ..................................................................................................... 1276
CHARTS AFRICA-Foreign Direct Investment & Trade .......................................................................................................................... 1277
CHARTS AFRICA-Geographic Comparisons ......................................................................................................................................... 1278
CHARTS Emerging Markets Corporate Defaults ................................................................................................................................... 1278
CHARTS Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index ......................................................................................................................... 1279
CHARTS Emerging Markets Currency Change versus USD ................................................................................................................. 1279
CHARTS Emerging Markets Change in Nominal Policy Rate ............................................................................................................... 1280
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator .............................................................................................. 1281
CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator Change Since 2008 Crisis ................................................... 1282
CHARTS Falling EM Currencies ............................................................................................................................................................. 1283
CHARTS Post-China 16 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1284
CHARTS Economies Now Need More Debt to Generate Growth ......................................................................................................... 1285
CHARTS Emerging Markets Benchmark Underperforms US Index ...................................................................................................... 1285
CHARTS - Reserves versus World ............................................................................................................................................................ 1285
CHARTS - Current Account Balances versus GDP .................................................................................................................................. 1287
CHARTS - Emerging Markets Index versus MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................... 1288
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 1289
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Exports ............................................................................................................................................................ 1290
CHARTS - SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1291
CHARTS - TURKEY - Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 1292
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1293
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Seven Countries Most Vulnerable To A Debt Crisis .............................................................................. 1293
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Brexit Effect Ripples Through Emerging Markets .......................................................................... 1301
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-off sentiment hits emerging markets ........................................................................................ 1303
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Turmoil in emerging countries could hinder global insurance penetration .................................. 1305
EMERGING MARKETS - Why Asian Markets Are Collapsing .............................................................................................................. 1306
EMERGING MARKETS - History Suggests Asia Can Handle Fed Tightening ................................................................................... 1309
EMERGING MARKETS - Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" .......................................... 1311
EMERGING MARKETS - North Korea: Chinese Outsourcing Giant ................................................................................................... 1313
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ............................................... 1315
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted .............................................................................................................................. 1317
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................. 1317
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 1323
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia ........................................................................................................... 1323
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ............................................................................................................. 1325
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 1327
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals.................................................................................................................................... 1333
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ......................................................................................................................... 1334
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning .......................................................... 1336
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration ........................................... 1338
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................. 1341
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1345
EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 1345
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business........................................................................................................... 1347
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ................................................................. 1348
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1351
ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 1351
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1356
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Top 7 Private Debt to GDP Growth Rates in 2015 ............................................................................................. 1356
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Australia GDP Plus Credit Growth ...................................................................................................................... 1356
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Hong Kong GDP Plus Credit Growth .................................................................................................................. 1357
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Korea GDP Plus Credit Growth .......................................................................................................................... 1357
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Financing Gaps Current Account Balance as a Percentage of GDP .............................................................. 1358
ASIA: CHARTS Entering More Adverse Part of the Credit Cycle .......................................................................................................... 1359
ASIA: CHARTS Real GDP Slowing, Real Funding Costs Are Rising .................................................................................................... 1360
ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations ....................................................................................................... 1361
ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth............................................................................................ 1362
ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports ........................................................................................................ 1363
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1364
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 1364
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 1366
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 1366
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 1368
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 1369
August 2016 Edition

14

ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 1369

ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .......................................................................................................................... 1370
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................ 1371
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ...................................................................................... 1371
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 1372
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 1374
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems ...................................................................................................................................................... 1375
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ............................................. 1377
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 1379
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 1381
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ................................................................................................................................. 1382
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia ................................................................................................. 1386
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ........................................................................................................................................... 1387
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................ 1390
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 1391
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1393
LATIN AMERICA Latin America Shouldn't Blame the Federal Reserve .......................................................................................... 1393
COLUMBIA Colombian Peso Leads Currency Declines as Crude Falls ......................................................................................... 1395
ARGENTINA Fewer Reserves Are a Plus for Argentine Bondholders ............................................................................................ 1395
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .............................................................................................................. 1396
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................ 1397
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 1399
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1399
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1400
BRICS................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1406
BRICS BRIC GDP versus World GDP Contribution Contracting ...................................................................................................... 1406
BRICS Population, GDP,GDP per Capita ............................................................................................................................................ 1407
BRICS Responsible for 43% of Global Growth in 2013 .................................................................................................................... 1408
BRICS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? ........................................................................................................................................ 1408
BRICS Inflation Problems Abound ...................................................................................................................................................... 1410
BRICS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth .............................................................................................. 1411
BRICS - Insufficient Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support .......................................................................................................... 1412
BRICS - A Development Bank-Forex Reserve Pool-African Integration ............................................................................................ 1414
BRICS - 40% of World Population and 25% of World GDP .................................................................................................................. 1415
BRICS - $3 to $13B GDP in Ten Years ................................................................................................................................................... 1418
BRICS- A World Wide Distrust of Financial Markets Building ............................................................................................................ 1421
BRAZIL........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1423
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Rio state declares financial disaster before Games ............................................................................................ 1423
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazilian Police Fired Tear Gas, Rubber Bullets As Protesters Try To Storm New President's Office .......................... 1423
NEW-BRAZIL - How Brazil, the darling of the developing world, came undone ....................................................................................... 1424
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Rio state declares financial disaster before Games ............................................................................................ 1428
BRAZIL Brazils 2016 Recession Outlook Worsens ............................................................................................................................... 1428
BRAZIL Recession from 2015-2017 to be the Deepest Since 1901 Borders on Depression............................................................. 1429
BRAZIL - Brazil GDP Growth Y-o-Y .......................................................................................................................................................... 1430
BRAZIL Bankruptcy Escalates In Brazil 5525 In 2015 ........................................................................................................................ 1430
BRAZIL Falling Currency against the USD - USDBRL........................................................................................................................... 1431
BRAZIL Rising Yields for Brazilian Companies ...................................................................................................................................... 1431
BRAZIL Sharp Retail Decline ................................................................................................................................................................. 1432
BRAZIL GDP Contraction of -3.5% in 2016 and -0.5% in 2017 ............................................................................................................. 1432
BRAZIL Longest Sequence of Drops in Quarterly GDP Since 1996 ..................................................................................................... 1433
BRAZIL Sharp Decline in Quarterly GDP Growth in Recent Years ....................................................................................................... 1433
BRAZIL High Contribution of External Sector to Growth in 2016 ........................................................................................................... 1434
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Rio state declares "State of Financial Disaster" before Summer Olympic Games ............................................. 1435
BRAZIL - Brazil Cut to Junk by All Three Ratings Agencies After Moody's Joins The Fray ..................................................................... 1435
BRAZIL 5,525 Companies Went Bankrupt In Brazil Last Year: "It's A Legitimate Credit Crisis" ........................................................... 1438
BRAZIL - Brazil Budget Cuts Not Enough to Avoid More Downgrades .................................................................................................... 1441
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is Now A Job Destruction Machine ............................................................................................................... 1443
BRAZIL - Local Rates Hit Hardest by Swift S&P Sovereign Downgrade to Junk ..................................................................................... 1445
BRAZIL - Recession and High Rates Doomed Brazils Investment-Grade Rating ................................................................................... 1447
BRAZIL - Why Brazil Is Not Coming Back Anytime Soon ......................................................................................................................... 1449
BRAZIL - Brazil Returns to Junk as Developing Nations Feel the Squeeze ............................................................................................. 1450
BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ...................................................................................................... 1452
BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................. 1459
BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ...................................................................................................................... 1459
BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector ....................................................................................................... 1460
BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ............................................................................................................... 1460
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 1462
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 1465
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 1468
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 1470
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 1471
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 1471
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 1472
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 1472
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1473
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 1473
August 2016 Edition

15

RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 1474

RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 1474
RUSSIA Russian CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................. 1475
RUSSIA Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge .................................................................................................................................. 1476
RUSSIA CDS Spreads Has Widened 250bp Since Mid-June ............................................................................................................... 1477
RUSSIA Russian 5Y CDS versus USDRUB versus Russian Stocks .................................................................................................... 1478
RUSSIA Crude Oil in Rubles .................................................................................................................................................................. 1479
RUSSIA Russian Reserves versus USDRUB ........................................................................................................................................ 1479
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 1480
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 1481
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 1482
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 1483
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 1484
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 1485
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 1486
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 1486
RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 1488
RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ............................................................................................................... 1488
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1489
INDIA India Imports- Exports Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................ 1489
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 1490
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 1491
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1492
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1493
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1494
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 1495
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1496
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ............................................................................................................. 1498
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ........................................................................................................... 1499
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1501
US ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................................... 1503

THE GLOBAL MACRO OVERLAY ........................................................................................................................................ 1505
MACRO - US Macro Data .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1505
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1505
NEW-MACRO Global Central Bank Liquidity Rises to Highest Since 2013 .......................................................................................... 1505
NEW-MACRO CB Liquidity vs. Global Equities & US HY Spreads ....................................................................................................... 1507
NEW-MACRO MSCI World Stocks versus Global Geo-Political Risk Index.......................................................................................... 1507
NEW-MACRO MSCI World Stocks versus 2016 World GDP Growth Expectations .............................................................................. 1508
NEW-MACRO EUROPE STOXX 600 Stocks versus 2016 EU GDP Growth Expectations .................................................................. 1508
NEW-MACRO FTSE 100 Stocks versus 2016 UK GDP Growth Expectations ..................................................................................... 1509
NEW-MACRO NIKKEI 225 Stocks versus 2016 JAPAN GDP Growth Expectations ............................................................................ 1509
NEW-MACRO Global Debt Continues to Rise While Productivity Growth Declines ............................................................................. 1510
NEW-MACRO OECD Global Trade Shows A Paradigm Shift That is Impervious to Stimulus ........................................................... 1510
NEW-MACRO Financial Business Liabilities Fed Funds Repo - CP ............................................................................................... 1511
MACRO QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 ..................................................................................................... 1512
MACRO Total Y-o-Y Global Export ........................................................................................................................................................ 1513
MACRO MSCI World Index A Rounded Top or Consolidation? ......................................................................................................... 1515
MACRO Central Bank Total Assets Fed,BoJ,BOE,ECB,PBoC .......................................................................................................... 1515
MACRO Global Debt Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 1516
MACRO 10 Fold Increase in Central Banks Assets in 20 Years............................................................................................................ 1516
MACRO Global PMI ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1518
MACRO Global GDP % under Negative Rates ...................................................................................................................................... 1518
MACRO Global Y-o-Y CPI Percentage Change .................................................................................................................................... 1519
MACRO Benchmark NIRP Rates ........................................................................................................................................................... 1520
MACRO Baltic Dry Index At levels Not Seen Since the 1980s .......................................................................................................... 1520
MACRO EM Wave is the Third Wave in the Global Financial Crisis...................................................................................................... 1521
MACRO Deteriorating EM FX, Equity and Debt .................................................................................................................................. 1521
MACRO Global Slowdown Only Getting Worse - China ........................................................................................................................ 1522
MACRO Global Slowdown Only Getting Worse - India .......................................................................................................................... 1523
MACRO Global Import-Export Trends .................................................................................................................................................... 1524
MACRO Developed World Import-Export Trends Has Nearly Halved Since 2000 ................................................................................ 1525
MACRO Emerging Market Import-Export Trends Has Also Fallen ........................................................................................................ 1526
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1527
NEW-MACRO Policymakers Have Been Calling A 'Depression' A 'Recovery' For Nearly A Decade .................................................... 1527
NEW-MACRO- The World's Central Banks Are Making A Big Mistake- The Risky Trinity! ................................................................... 1531
NEW-MACRO- Investor Complacency Regarding Macro Risks & Potential Geopolitical Shocks ........................................................... 1534
MACRO- The 8 Major Macro Economic Problems The Next President Will Face ................................................................................... 1537
Problem #1: Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1537
Problem #2: China ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1538
Problem #3: Australia .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1538
Problem #4: The Middle East .............................................................................................................................................................. 1538
Problem #5: Russia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1538
Problem #6: Europe ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1538
Problem #7: The Americas .................................................................................................................................................................. 1539
August 2016 Edition

16

Problem #8: The United States ........................................................................................................................................................... 1539

A Recession is Inevitable .................................................................................................................................................................... 1539
MACRO- Deutsche Bank's Dire Warning On Global Trade: "The Currency War Is Futile" ...................................................................... 1539
US INVESTMENT CYCLE ...................................................................................................................................................... 1543

CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1544
NEW-CHART Household Net Worth as a Percentage of Disposable Income ....................................................................................... 1544
NEW-CHART We have a Classic DOW Non-Confirmation.................................................................................................................... 1545
NEW-CHART Worrisome Divergence Growing Between Jobs & Corporate Profits .............................................................................. 1546
NEW-CHART Not a Good Economic Investment Environment ............................................................................................................. 1546
NEW-CHART Not A Good Economic Investment Environment ............................................................................................................. 1546
NEW-CHART US Non-Financials Y-o-Y Change in Net Debt vs Operating Cash Flow (%) ................................................................. 1547
NEW-CHART US Industrial Production vs S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 1547
NEW-CHART US Macro & 10Y UST vs S&P 500 .................................................................................................................................. 1548
NEW-CHART US Macro vs S&P 500 Divergences Preceded Jan 2016 Market Drawdowns ............................................................... 1548
NEW-CHART 2017 US GDP Growth Expectations versus S&P 500 .................................................................................................... 1549
NEW-CHART Plummeting US Retail Stocks Relative to S&P 500 ........................................................................................................ 1549
NEW-CHART Productivity vs. Average Real Earnings .......................................................................................................................... 1550
NEW-CHART S&P 500 Index Typically Range Bound Prior to Election Day ........................................................................................ 1551
CHART Professionals Moving to the Sidelines in a Significant Fashion in US Equities ........................................................................ 1552
CHART Financial Cycles and Crisis Are Becoming Longer & Deeper .................................................................................................. 1552
CHART The Business, Credit and Rate Cycles ..................................................................................................................................... 1553
CHART The Business, Credit and Rate Cycles ..................................................................................................................................... 1553
CHART A Secular Problem on the Verge of Also Being a Business /Credit /Rate Cycle Problem ....................................................... 1553
CHART Business Cycle Surprise Index ................................................................................................................................................. 1555
CHART Boom-Bust Cycle In Stocks ....................................................................................................................................................... 1555
RESEARCHOF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1556
NEW-INVESTMENT The Financial Cycle is way ahead of the Economic Cycle .................................................................................... 1556
NEW-INVESTMENT The Real Message from Asset Inflation ................................................................................................................ 1557
INVESTMENT Bonds & Stocks Unhinged from Reality- Financial reversal will fuel backlash against governments and central banks
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1559
GORD'S BIG PICTURE ECONOMIC CYCLE ..................................................................................................................................................... 1562
ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1563
MONTHLY INDICATORS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................. 1563
NEW-RESEARCH The One Key Indicator Pointing To A Bear Market ................................................................................................. 1563
RESEARCH End of the Benign Cycle. ................................................................................................................................................. 1566
RESEARCH - 8 Charts That Prove the US Is Already In A Recession .................................................................................................... 1567
RESEARCH - 16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here .............................................. 1572
THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 1576
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS > CONFIDENCE > CONSUMPTION > GROWTH CYCLE.................................................................................... 1576
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1578
SOME HIGHLIGHTS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1578
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1582
NEW-CHARTS Cumulative Workers Added: 54 and Younger vs 55 and Older .................................................................................... 1582
NEW-CHARTS Americans Are Working Longer-Employment-to-Population Ratio for People 65 Years and Over ............................. 1582
NEW-CHARTS Workers Aged 55 and Over ........................................................................................................................................... 1583
NEW-CHARTS People Over 65 Forced to Work in More Expensive Areas Such as California ........................................................... 1583
NEW-CHARTS Labor Force Status of People via Age Group ............................................................................................................... 1584
CHARTS Waiter / Bartender versus Manufacturing Jobs Post Dec 2007 .......................................................................................... 1585
CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Post 2010 .................................................................................................................. 1585
CHARTS October NFP 60K below Estimates at 142K ........................................................................................................................... 1586
CHARTS Change in Civilian Employment: August 2015 ....................................................................................................................... 1586
CHARTS Peaks In LMCI Leads Declines in Employment...................................................................................................................... 1587
CHARTS September 2015 Monthly Job Change by State Bottoms up Says 22K Jobs Lost ............................................................. 1587
CHARTS Initial Jobless Claims .............................................................................................................................................................. 1588
CHARTS Increased Job Openings not a Sign of Better Employment ................................................................................................... 1590
NEW-CHARTS - U3 & U6 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1591
NEW-CHARTS - Employment Situation Summary ................................................................................................................................... 1592
BUSINESS CYCLE - CONSUMER & BUSINESS SENTIMENT ......................................................................................................................... 1600
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE Shifting Trend ................................................................................................................................................. 1600
NEW-SENTIMENT - Consumer, Investor & Trader ............................................................................................................................................. 1601
NEW-Consumer Confidence - Conference Board ........................................................................................................................................ 1601
NEW-Consumer Sentiment - Michigan ......................................................................................................................................................... 1605
NEW-Consumer Comfort - Bloomberg .......................................................................................................................................................... 1607
NEW-American Association of Independent Investors ................................................................................................................................. 1609
NEW-Investors Intelligence ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1609
NEW-National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) .......................................................................................................... 1610
NEW-Small Business Optimism .................................................................................................................................................................... 1612
NEW-Percentage Stocks above 50 & 200 DMA ........................................................................................................................................... 1614
NEW-Margin Levels ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1615
NEW-Margin Debt Levels versus S&P 500 ................................................................................................................................................... 1617
NEW-NYSE Investor Credit versus Market ................................................................................................................................................... 1618
Mutual Fund Cash Levels v S&P 500 ............................................................................................................................................................ 1618
August 2016 Edition

17

NEW-OSCILLATORS & BREADTH: Indicators of Importance .......................................................................................................................... 1621

NEW-NYSE Overbought / Oversold .............................................................................................................................................................. 1621
NEW-OEX Open Interest (Puts/Calls) ........................................................................................................................................................... 1622
NEW-TRIN ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1623
NEW-McClellan Oscillator ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1624
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1625
CHARTS Small Business Sentiment Trending Down Strongly .................................................................................................................. 1625
CHARTS Small Business Sentiment Margin Squeeze ........................................................................................................................... 1625
CHARTS Bloomberg Consumer Comfort versus Nasdaq ......................................................................................................................... 1626
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE Shifting Trend ................................................................................................................................................. 1627
CHARTS Economic Surprise Index lower highs, lower lows and a reluctant bounce ............................................................................ 1627
CHARTS Nominal & Real Household Spending Expectations .................................................................................................................. 1628
CHARTS Household Spending Expectations by Income Bucket .............................................................................................................. 1628
CHARTS A Very Neutral (Highly Unusual) Bull Market ............................................................................................................................. 1629
CHARTS Historical Swings in Sentiment ................................................................................................................................................... 1629
CHARTS Fed Doing the Lending Not the Banks What Are the Banks Worried About?...................................................................... 1631
CHARTS Investors Intelligence Bulls & Bears ........................................................................................................................................... 1631
CHARTS A/D Line Diverging from Price, Suggesting Weakening Momentum ......................................................................................... 1632
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1633
SENTIMENT Oblivious To Risk - Complacency Still Reigns .................................................................................................................. 1633
SENTIMENT UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles to 12-Month Lows with Biggest Miss on Record................................................... 1637
SENTIMENT Elderly Americans' Confidence Collapses To 11-Month Lows (As Middle-Aged Hope Surges) ......................................... 1638
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1640
NEW-CHARTS Personal Consumption Expenditure Continues to Decline ........................................................................................... 1641
NEW-CHARTS Real PCE vs GDP & Employment ................................................................................................................................ 1641
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales & Food Services Decline .......................................................................................................................... 1642
NEW-CHARTS US Y-o-Y Change In Personal Consumption on Healthcare & Insurance ................................................................... 1642
CHARTS US Spending Consumption in 2015 Was in Healthcare Up Dramatically ........................................................................... 1644
CHARTS US Spending Unaffordable Housing Shifting to Unaffordable Rentals ............................................................................... 1644
CHARTS US Spending Gap Between Earnings and House Prices Now Larger than During Housing Bubble ................................. 1644
CHARTS October Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y & Sequential Change ......................................................................................... 1646
CHARTS October Retail Y-o-Y Sales ..................................................................................................................................................... 1646
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Autos M-o-M .................................................................................................................................................. 1647
CHARTS Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 1647
CHARTS Consumer Credit Car Loans ................................................................................................................................................... 1648
CHARTS Consumer Loans Owned by the Government ........................................................................................................................ 1648
CHARTS Student & Car Loans ............................................................................................................................................................... 1650
CHARTS Total Non-Revolving Credit ..................................................................................................................................................... 1650
CHARTS August Sequential Change in Revolving and Non-Revolving Credit ..................................................................................... 1651
CHARTS Gas Prices Below $2/Gallon by December? .......................................................................................................................... 1651
CHARTS Aggregate Income Proxy versus Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas ............................................................................................ 1652
CHARTS Consumption Items Sampling - Y-o-Y Growth........................................................................................................................ 1652
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1654
NEW-CONSUMPTION Soaring cost of Medical Care and the Rising Cost of Rents Killing Consumption ............................................ 1654
CONSUMPTION This Is What Americans Spent Most Money On In 2015 Spoiler Alert: Obamacare ............................................... 1655
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1656
NEW-CHARTS 2016 GDP Expectations ................................................................................................................................................ 1660
NEW-CHARTS US Service & Manufacturing PMI Trend ....................................................................................................................... 1661
CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Tumbles to 1.4% ................................................................................................................... 1661
CHARTS Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP Forecast Trend is steadily down ........................................................................................................... 1662
CHARTS Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports Y-o-Y .......................................................................................................................... 1663
CHARTS Markit PMI Both Services and Manufacturing falling Since June 2014 ............................................................................... 1664
CHARTS Markit Composite PMI and US GDP....................................................................................................................................... 1664
CHARTS US Economic Growth in 2015 Was in Healthcare Consumption ........................................................................................... 1665
CHARTS Strong Dollar, High Inventories to Slow US Factory Output ................................................................................................... 1666
CHARTS US ISMs 3 Mo MA................................................................................................................................................................... 1666
CHARTS September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ............................................................................................................... 1667
CHARTS Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) .................................................................................................. 1668
CHARTS Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates ........................................................................................ 1669
CHARTS Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 ................................................................................................ 1669
CHARTS Predicted US Quarterly GDP Grow Q-o-Q Annualized ....................................................................................................... 1670
CHARTS Predicted US Annual Growth % Through 2024 ...................................................................................................................... 1670
CHARTS Predicted US Growth Compared to UK and Eurozone .......................................................................................................... 1671
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1672
GROWTH Core Durable Goods Tumble For 13th Month, Longest Non-Recessionary Stretch In 70 Years ........................................ 1672
GROWTH PMI Services Signals "Softest Expansion of New Business Since 2009 ............................................................................. 1674
GROWTH Healthcare Is About To Surpass Housing As The Biggest Source Of American "Growth" ................................................... 1676
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 1679
US PUBLIC POLICY ELECTION OUTCOME PORTENDS MAJOR CHANGE .................................................................... 1686
August 2016 Edition

18

NEW-AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD: The Reality of US Foreign Policy (Must See video) ........................................... 1689
NEW-CHARTS Federal Government Supplementing Consumer Purchasing Power through Income Redistribution Programs ......... 1691
NEW-CHARTS Federal Government Outlays and Income Redistribution Programs ............................................................................ 1692
NEW-CHARTS Net Annual Change in the Number of New Firms (US) - Latest Release .................................................................... 1692
NEW-CHARTS Federal Outlays Per Capita Come With Both Parties ................................................................................................... 1693
CHARTS The Changing Shape of US Income Distribution .................................................................................................................... 1694
CHARTS US infrastructure spending as a % of GDP is the lowest it has been since 1950 .................................................................. 1694
CHARTS The Cost of Healthcare By Country Spending Per Person ................................................................................................. 1695
CHARTS The Bankrupt US Healthcare System .................................................................................................................................. 1695
CHARTS Rise in Number of Homeless Children ................................................................................................................................... 1696
CHARTS One-Third of All Homeless Live in These 10 Cities ................................................................................................................ 1697
CHARTS Trends in American Public Schooling Since 1970 .................................................................................................................. 1698
CHARTS Size of US Army Since 1946................................................................................................................................................... 1698
CHARTS Lack of Trust in Government to Handle International & Domestic Problems ......................................................................... 1699
CHARTS Changing Presidential Stance ................................................................................................................................................ 1700
CHARTS Public Support to Withdraw from Union .................................................................................................................................. 1700
CHARTS - US Incarceration Rate Out of Control ...................................................................................................................................... 1701
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1702
NEW-POLICY - America Has Become A "Parasitocracy" ......................................................................................................................... 1702
NEW-POLICY - America Is Being Divided and Conquered Into Oblivion ................................................................................................. 1705
NEW-POLICY - The Politics Of Fairness Have Created The Economics Of Hopelessness .................................................................... 1713
POLICY - These Are the 8 Biggest Barriers to Economic Growth ............................................................................................................ 1716
POLICY Obamacare: Written by Insurance companies to benefit Insurance companies ..................................................................... 1718
POLICY Former UK Ambassador To Syria: US/UK Foreign Policy Is Doomed, Even Corrupt ............................................................. 1720
MONETARY POLICY US MONETARY POLICY EITHER IN DISARRAY & CONFUSION OR FOCUSED ON ASSET SUPPORT............ 1723
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTECHARTS: US Monetary Base Growth versus S&P 500 (Brexit June 27 th) ....................................................... 1723
NEW-CHARTS: The Fed Has Borrowed From Future Consumption More Than Ever Before ........................................................................... 1723
NEW-CHARTS: Bond Yields Illustrate the Opposite of Fed Confidence ................................................................................................... 1724
NEW-CHARTS: Pace of Fed Hikes vs Yield Curve and GDP Growth Expectations .................................................................................... 1725
NEW-CHARTS: Economic Output Composite Index vs Central Bank Actions ............................................................................................ 1726
CHARTS: Post QE-3- US Dollar Index .......................................................................................................................................................... 1727
CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1727
CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 PE Ratio ..................................................................................................................................................... 1728
CHARTS: Post QE-3- MSCI World Index ...................................................................................................................................................... 1729
CHARTS: Post QE-3- HYG ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1730
CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1731
CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1731
CHARTS: Feds US PCE Y-o-Y .................................................................................................................................................................... 1732
CHARTS: US Industrial Production ............................................................................................................................................................... 1732
CHARTS: US Industrial Production ............................................................................................................................................................... 1733
CHARTS: US Durable Goods New Orders ................................................................................................................................................... 1733
CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 1734
CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ............................................................................................................. 1734
CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .................................................................................................................... 1735
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 1735
CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ............................................................................................................................. 1736
CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series .................................................................................................................................... 1736
CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay .................................................................................................................. 1737
CHARTS: US Treasuries Purchased by Domestic Mutual Funds ................................................................................................................ 1737
CHARTS: Total Debt and Loans versus US GDP ......................................................................................................................................... 1738
CHARTS: Credit Markets Instruments All Sectors- Liability Levels ........................................................................................................... 1738
CORE CHARTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1739
QUANTITATIVE EASING .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1739
CORE: QE Stages versus US Treasury Market ........................................................................................................................................ 1739
CORE: QE Stages versus US Equity Market ............................................................................................................................................ 1739
CORE: QE Correlation with US Equity Market .......................................................................................................................................... 1740
CORE: US Monetary Base Growth Correlation with US Equity Market .................................................................................................... 1740
CORE: QE Correlation with Global Growth Barometer & S&P 500 .......................................................................................................... 1741
CORE: Expect Exponential Growth in the Fed Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................. 1741
CORE: Total Assets Held by the Federal Reserve ................................................................................................................................... 1743
CORE: Exponential Growth in US Credit a Requirement.......................................................................................................................... 1743
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1744
NEW-RESEARCH Former Fed Governor Admits "Fed Is Not Data Dependent; It Is Propping Up Asset Markets"................................. 1744
NEW-RESEARCH The Real Reason the Fed Will Not Raise Rates Again ............................................................................................... 1745
RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates ....................................................... 1747
RESEARCH BEN BERNANKE: What tools does the Fed have left? Part 2: Targeting longer-term interest rates .................................. 1753
RESERCH Why Lower Gasoline Prices Are Not Stimulating The Economy ............................................................................................. 1756
FISCAL POLICY US DEBT GROWS UNABATED! .................................................................................................................... 1758

FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 1760
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1760
NEW-FINANCING Entitlements, Defense & Interest Will Consume All Tax Revenue in 2019 .................................................................. 1760
NEW-FINANCING Lost Tax Revenue from a 2018 Recession Will Create Massive Deficits .................................................................... 1760
August 2016 Edition

19

NEW-FINANCING Government Investment Remains Very Weak ............................................................................................................. 1761

NEW-FINANCING Withholding Taxes Annual Percentage Change ........................................................................................................... 1761
NEW-FINANCING US Increase in Debt / Increase in GDP 5 Year Trailing Average .............................................................................. 1762
NEW-FINANCING a $211T True US Fiscal Gap ........................................................................................................................................ 1762
NEW-FINANCING Falling GDP Per Capita ~ Productivity.......................................................................................................................... 1763
FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ..................................................................................................... 1763
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 1764
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 1764
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 1765
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 1765
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 1766
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 1767
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1767
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 1768
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 1768
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 1769
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1770
CHARTS Where Did Every Dollar in Spending Go? .................................................................................................................................. 1770
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 1770
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 1771
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 1772
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 1772
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 1773
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 1773
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 1774
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 1774
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 1776
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart ......................................................................................................................... 1777
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government ........................................................................................................................ 1778
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 1783
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 1784
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 1786
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 1790
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 1794
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1804
CHARTS Connecticut Bond Yield Spreads Over AAA Munis .................................................................................................................... 1804
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 1804
RESEARCH - Countdown To Insolvency Begins For Chicago Pensions As State Supreme Court Rejects Reform Bid ............................ 1805
RESEARCH - Connecticut Credit Risk Spikes to Record High .................................................................................................................... 1807
RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke ........................................................................................................................ 1809
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ........................................................................................................................................... 1813
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 1819
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1824
Charts Revenues Completely Consumed By Major Entitlements & Interest by 2025 ............................................................................... 1824
Charts In FY 2014 Medicaid Accounted for 8% of Federal Outlays .......................................................................................................... 1824
Charts Medicare Spending is a Growing Share of the Federal Budget ..................................................................................................... 1826
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 1827
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 1831
US REGULATORY COSTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1834
CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ................................................................................................................. 1834
RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty............................................................................................................................................................... 1834
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1836
NEW-CHARTS US Companies Hoarding the Most Money Offshore (Tax Exempt) ................................................................................. 1836
CHARTS Marginal Tax Rates Must Nearly Double to Fund Entitlement Spending ................................................................................... 1837
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 1838
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 1839
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 1842
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 1842
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 1843
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons .......................................................................................................................................................... 1844
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 1844
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 1845
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1849
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 1852
CHARTS Size of US military Spending Dwarfs all others- Spends more than the Next 15 Combined..................................................... 1852
CHARTS Competing Visions of Government ............................................................................................................................................. 1852
CHARTS - Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1854
CHARTS - Growing Government Dependence ............................................................................................................................................. 1855
CHARTS - Coming Demographic Shock ....................................................................................................................................................... 1855
CHARTS - Fiscal Cliff Outcome .................................................................................................................................................................... 1859
KEY DRIVERS MUST HAVE CATALYSTS OF CHANGE ................................................................................................... 1861

EMPLOYMENT .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1861
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1862
August 2016 Edition

20

COMING AUTOMATION ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1862

NEW-CHARTS Falling NFP M-o-M Change .......................................................................................................................................... 1862
NEW-CHARTS Wage Gap Fuels Election Anger ................................................................................................................................... 1864
NEW-CHARTS Declining Profits Heighten Risk of Lower Labor Input .................................................................................................. 1864
NEW-CHARTS Falling Workers Share of GDP ...................................................................................................................................... 1865
CHARTS Waiter / Bartender versus Manufacturing Jobs Post Dec 2007 .......................................................................................... 1867
CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Post 2010 .................................................................................................................. 1867
CHARTS NRA Restaurant Performance Index Pre 2010 ................................................................................................................... 1868
CHARTS Labor Force Participation Rate versus Food Stamp Participants .......................................................................................... 1868
CHARTS World Youth Unemployment A Crisis .................................................................................................................................. 1868
CHARTS Change in Civilian Employment since December 2007 ......................................................................................................... 1869
CHARTS Total Foreign-Born versus Native-Born Workers since Dec 2007 ......................................................................................... 1870
CHARTS Manufacturers versus Waiter/Bartenders Since 2007 ............................................................................................................ 1871
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1872
EMPLOYMENT The "Restaurant Recovery" Is Over: Casual Dining Sales Tumble For Fourth Straight Month .................................. 1872
REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1875
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1875
NEW-CHARTS The Struggle To Maintain a Standard of Living .......................................................................................................... 1875
NEW-CHARTS The Struggle To Maintain a Standard of Living -2 ...................................................................................................... 1875
NEW-CHARTS Personal Savings Rate .................................................................................................................................................. 1876
NEW-CHARTS Cost of Dining Out vs Home-Cooked Meals ................................................................................................................. 1876
NEW-CHARTS Higher Assets Prices with Less Income to Buy Them Usually ends An Asset Bubble ................................................ 1876
CHARTS Wages as a percentage of GDP have been falling for decades ............................................................................................ 1878
CHARTS Middle class wealth is based not in stocks but in the family home ........................................................................................ 1878
CHARTS Inflation-adjusted household income has dropped back to levels first reached in the 1980s ................................................ 1879
CHARTS Wages have declined regardless of educational attainment .................................................................................................. 1879
CHARTS US Productivity versus Wage Growth 1947-Now ................................................................................................................ 1880
CHARTS US Productivity versus Non-Supervisory Compensation 1947-Now .................................................................................. 1880
CHARTS Productivity has been slipping since around 2003: Alan Greenspan:"Productivity is dead .................................................. 1881
CHARTS Middle class household wealth has absolutely cratered since the top of the housing bubble in 2007 .................................. 1881
CHARTS Income gains have all flowed to the top 10% ......................................................................................................................... 1882
CHARTS Higher education and healthcare have exploded higher ........................................................................................................ 1884
CHARTS Average Hourly Earnings of all Employees Total Private .................................................................................................... 1885
CHARTS Individuals Annually Receiving Foods Stamps ....................................................................................................................... 1885
CHARTS Homeless among Students is Growing .................................................................................................................................. 1886
CHARTS Stagnant Middle Class Wages ................................................................................................................................................ 1886
CHARTS Median Earnings by Sex ......................................................................................................................................................... 1887
CHARTS Disconnect Between Productivity and Typical Workers Compensation 1948-2014 ........................................................... 1888
CHARTS Unemployment Rate is close to 24% according to Shadow Stats ......................................................................................... 1889
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls less HES Complex ................................................................................................................................... 1889
CHARTS Childcare Costs Surge Past Rent, Tuition in Most of US ....................................................................................................... 1890
CHARTS Illinois the Biggest User of Food Stamps in Mid-West ........................................................................................................... 1891
CHARTS Illinois has Regained Few Manufacturing Jobs Since the Great Recession .......................................................................... 1891
CHARTS Food Stamps Outpace Manufacturing Jobs 25-1 in Illinois .................................................................................................... 1891
CHARTS Debt by Generation ................................................................................................................................................................. 1892
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1894
DI What Killed The US Middle Class? .................................................................................................................................................... 1894
US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1903
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1903
NEW-POLICY New & Existing Home Sales 12Mo MA ....................................................................................................................... 1903
NEW-POLICY Homebuilders Index ........................................................................................................................................................ 1903
NEW-POLICY Shelter & Rent Inflation Y-o-Y Percentage Change ....................................................................................................... 1904
NEW-POLICY Median Asking Rent for Vacant Rent Units .................................................................................................................... 1904
NEW-POLICY Falling US Homeownership Rate ................................................................................................................................... 1905
POLICY Renter versus Owner Occupied Housing Units Since 1996 .................................................................................................... 1907
POLICY Home prices are floating out of reach for average wage earners ............................................................................................ 1907
POLICY US Home Price Growth versus Wage Growth ......................................................................................................................... 1908
POLICY Pending Home Sales Falling .................................................................................................................................................... 1908
POLICY Existing Home Sales M-o-M ..................................................................................................................................................... 1909
POLICY Pending Home Sales Falling .................................................................................................................................................... 1909
POLICY New Home Sales Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................................................ 1910
POLICY Total New Home Sales vs Median New Home Sales Prices ................................................................................................... 1911
POLICY US Cities with Highest Median Prices of Single-Family Homes .............................................................................................. 1912
POLICY NAHB Sentiment Much Higher than Permits and Starts? ........................................................................................................ 1912
POLICY Flattenening NAHB Sentiment ................................................................................................................................................. 1913
POLICY New Homes Sales versus Ave Wage Grow Y-0-Y versus MBA 30Y rate versus Real Median Inc ........................................ 1914
POLICY Mortgage Purchase Application Index versus Fed Balance Sheet .......................................................................................... 1915
POLICY Total News Home Sales v Median New Home Sale Price ...................................................................................................... 1916
POLICY San Francisco Y/Y Price Increase Indicator ............................................................................................................................. 1916
POLICY Meaningful Housing Recovery On Hold Until Spring ............................................................................................................... 1918
POLICY Housing Starts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1918
POLICY Existing & New Home Sales ..................................................................................................................................................... 1919
POLICY Home Ownership Rate versus Rental Rate ............................................................................................................................. 1919
POLICY Mortgages Past Due and Foreclosure Starts ........................................................................................................................ 1920
POLICY Mortgage Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................... 1920
POLICY Lumber Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1921
August 2016 Edition

21

RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1924

RESIDENTIAL Housing Will Support, Not Lead, U.S. Growth This Time .............................................................................................. 1924
RESIDENTIAL For the Average American, Owning A Home Is Increasingly Unaffordable .................................................................. 1926
RESIDENTIAL New Home Sales Plunge Most Since June 2014 .......................................................................................................... 1929
RESIDENTIAL Existing Home Sales Crash Most In 6 Years: NAR Blames Slowing Economy, Bubbly Home Prices ......................... 1931
US COMMERCIAL RETAIL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................................................... 1935
NEW-CHARTS Delinquent CMBS Loans ............................................................................................................................................... 1935
NEW-CHARTS CMBS Delinquency Rate .............................................................................................................................................. 1935
CHARTS Vacancy Rate - Indoor Malls versus Strip Malls ..................................................................................................................... 1937
CHARTS McDonalds Global Sales Fall 2.5% - 35,000 Franchise Operators In Trouble...................................................................... 1937
CHARTS McDonalds US Same Store Sales Down ~4% Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................ 1937
CHARTS Top US Franchise Defaulters ................................................................................................................................................. 1938
CHARTS Online Retailers Beginning to Dominate Worlds Largest Retailers by Market Cap .............................................................. 1939
CHARTS Shippers Being Squeezed By Online Retailers ...................................................................................................................... 1939
CHARTS Consumer Discretionary Underperforming Consumer Staples Signs of Increasing Squeeze ............................................ 1940
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales Trend ............................................................................................................................................ 1940
CHARTS US Retail Sales Ex-Auto & Parts ............................................................................................................................................ 1941
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex-Auto Adjusted for Inflation & Population Growth .......................................................................................... 1943
CHARTS Retail Space Opened Pre-2008 versus Current Rate ............................................................................................................ 1944
CHARTS CMBS Recovered Somewhat but Malls In Trouble ................................................................................................................ 1944
CHARTS Department Store Sales Continue to Erode ........................................................................................................................... 1945
SPECIAL FOCUS US RECESSION UPDATE ..................................................................................................................... 1946

US RECESSION UPDATE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1946
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1947
NEW-RECESSION The Recovery/Expansion is Already Fairly Long.................................................................................................... 1948
NEW-RECESSION Change in the Labor Market Conditions Index ....................................................................................................... 1948
NEW-RECESSION Lost Tax Revenue from a 2018 Recession Will Create Massive Deficits ............................................................. 1949
NEW-RECESSION Entitlements, Defense & Interest Will Consume All Tax Revenue in 2019 ............................................................ 1949
NEW-RECESSION Three Long-Term Manufacturing Indicators Have Moved into Recession Territory .............................................. 1950
NEW-RECESSION Negative Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) is Latest Sign of Upcoming Recession .................................................... 1952
NEW-RECESSION Typical Recessionary Sequence ............................................................................................................................ 1953
NEW-RECESSION US Pretax Domestic Non-Financial Profits Falling more steeply than in 1998 ................................................... 1954
NEW-RECESSION US Pretax Domestic Non-Financial Profits Falling and Leading Business Investment ...................................... 1954
NEW-RECESSION It is Always Falling Business Investment that Causes Recessions ....................................................................... 1954
NEW-RECESSION Manufacturing New Orders Falling ......................................................................................................................... 1955
NEW-RECESSION Annual Growth Rate in Income & Employment Taxes Withheld Has Collapsed in 2016 ...................................... 1956
NEW-RECESSION Recession Risks Rising as Profits Fall the Most Since 2008 ................................................................................. 1956
NEW-RECESSION Corporate Profits Y-o-Y versus Employment Y-o-Y ............................................................................................... 1958
RECESSION Recession Risks Rising as Profits Fall By Most Since 2008 ........................................................................................... 1958
RECESSION Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transports Y-o-Y ................................................................................................................... 1960
RECESSION Markit Composite PMI and US GDP ................................................................................................................................ 1960
RECESSION A US Recession is now a VERY Likely Outcome! ........................................................................................................... 1961
RECESSION Manufacturing Indicators & Industrial Production In Recession Territory ....................................................................... 1962
RECESSION The Real Employment Economic Picture & Recessionary Driver .................................................................................. 1962
RECESSION Inflation Creeping Into Recessionary Statistics ............................................................................................................... 1963
RECESSION 15-month Continuous Y-o-Y drop in Factory orders Historically Has Signaled A Recession for 60 Years .................... 1964
RECESSION Productivity Slows As Recoveries Age (Y-o-Y%) ............................................................................................................ 1964
RECESSION St.Louis Recession Probability ......................................................................................................................................... 1965
RECESSION Recession Probability Based on Probit Model ................................................................................................................. 1965
RECESSION Recession Probability The Economic Output Composite Index ................................................................................... 1966
RECESSION Recession Probability HY Spreads Have not Traded at Current Levels Outside a US Recession .............................. 1966
RECESSION Recession Probability Market Sentiment Can Become A Driver of Recessions .......................................................... 1967
RECESSION Recession Probability Inflation tends to Rise Into and During a Recession ................................................................. 1967
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories -to - Sales..................................................................................................................................... 1968
RECESSION Industrial Production Is Rolling Over ................................................................................................................................ 1968
RECESSION US Recession Probabilities .............................................................................................................................................. 1970
RECESSION We are already in a US GDP Recession ......................................................................................................................... 1970
RECESSION HY Close to 2001 Recession Levels ................................................................................................................................ 1971
RECESSION US Recession Cycle Suggests Economic & Earnings Cycle May Be Close To Ending ................................................. 1972
RECESSION US Recession Cycle Suggests Cycle May Be Close To Ending ..................................................................................... 1972
RECESSION Current Economic Cycle Is Getting Old In The Tooth ................................................................................................... 1973
RECESSION Average Monthly Job Growth Deteriorating ..................................................................................................................... 1973
RECESSION Annual Percent Change In Real GDP .............................................................................................................................. 1974
RECESSION US Manufacturing Sector Recession ............................................................................................................................... 1974
RECESSION Large Profit Margin Declines Coincides With Recessions ............................................................................................... 1975
RECESSION Buybacks Drop on Reduced Free Cash Flow Drop Compared to Previous Recession ............................................... 1975
RECESSION Annual % Change in 12Mo Forward EPS Expectations Turn Negative .......................................................................... 1976
RECESSION US Recession Estimates Pop .......................................................................................................................................... 1976
RECESSION US Recession Indicator & Relative Performance of Stocks & Bonds.............................................................................. 1977
RECESSION Real S&P 500 Index with Historical Recessions .............................................................................................................. 1977
RECESSION September Survey Data versus Non Farm Payrolls ........................................................................................................ 1978
RECESSION Regional Surveys for September versus ISM PMI (August) ............................................................................................ 1978
RECESSION Regional Manufacturing Surveys versus Forward EPS Estimates .................................................................................. 1979
RECESSION Historical Regional Index Comparisons Last Seen in 2008 .......................................................................................... 1979
August 2016 Edition

22

RECESSION Global Oil Consumption Leads Economic Growth Trend is Down Global Headwinds .............................................. 1980
RECESSION Gross Domestic Income versus Wilshire 5000 Tells the Story ..................................................................................... 1981
RECESSION CT 2015 Revenue Recession .......................................................................................................................................... 1981
RECESSION Q2 2015 Revenue Recession .......................................................................................................................................... 1982
RECESSION 4 Consecutive months of y/y Spending Declines ............................................................................................................. 1982
RECESSION BOA: Retail sales ex-autos, plunged 0.8% mom seasonally adjusted.......................................................................... 1983
RECESSION Top 10 US Market Areas Signal Retail Problem Underway ............................................................................................ 1983
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories to Sales Spiking To Areas Seen During Recession Trends ....................................................... 1984
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories Less Wholesale Sales ................................................................................................................. 1985
RECESSION Wholesale Inventories vs GDP Trends ............................................................................................................................ 1985
RECESSION Auto Inventories to Sales ................................................................................................................................................. 1986
RECESSION Falling Collateral and Residuals Undermine Real Growth ............................................................................................ 1986
RECESSION Coincident / Lagging Indicator Ratio versus Recessions ................................................................................................. 1987
RECESSION Annual Change in Durable Goods Orders v Recessions ................................................................................................. 1987
RECESSION Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) versus Recessions ...................................................................... 1988
RECESSION Real Gross Domestic Investment versus Recessions ..................................................................................................... 1988
RECESSION Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP versus Recessions .................................................................. 1989
RECESSION Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand versus Recessions .................................................................................. 1990
RECESSION ISM Composite Index versus Recessions........................................................................................................................ 1991
RECESSION Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production versus Recessions ............................................................................. 1991
RECESSION Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average versus Recessions ................................................................. 1992
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions......................................................................... 1992
RECESSION Major Economic Trends.................................................................................................................................................... 1993
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1994
NEW-RECESSION One Analyst's Surprising Indicator Why Recession Is Coming In Early 2017 ....................................................... 1994
NEW-RECESSION Economists are starting to warn about the risk of a new U.S. recession ............................................................... 1997
RECESSION Economists are starting to warn about the risk of a new U.S. recession......................................................................... 1997
RECESSION Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise .......................................................................... 2000
RECESSION Retail Sales Slump on Deck ............................................................................................................................................. 2002
RECESSION This Is another "Subprime" Waiting To Blow ................................................................................................................... 2005
RECESSION Record Gap between US Inventories and Sales Screams Recession ............................................................................ 2008
RECESSION August spending was the weakest in nominal dollar terms since 2012 ........................................................................... 2010
RECESSION The Next Recession Will Definitely Not Happen In 2018 ................................................................................................. 2015
August 2016 Edition

23

MONTHLY PROCESS OF ABSTRACTION

The Global Macro Tipping Points (GMTP) Service is an integral part of our monthly Process of Abstraction research
methodology. The process starts monthly with the Tipping Points and completes with a final Synthesis. The
sequence is optimized to align with the established Macro Economic Data releases.
Plan
Release
Date
III.
Monday following
4th Saturday
of the Month
IV.
II.
Monday following
2tnd Saturday of the
Month
Tuesday following
3rd Saturday
of the Month
Service
Coverage
Tipping Points
Tipping Points
Abstraction
Global Macro
Abstraction
US Economy
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Market Analytics
Fundamental Analysis
Market Analytics
Risk Analysis
Synthesis
Commentary
Synthesis
Commentary
Thesis
Conclusions
Global Macro Tipping Points

(GMTP)
Market Analytics & Technical

Analysis (MTA)
Monthly Market Commentary

(MMC)
August 2016 Edition

24
Focus


RPT GMTP 2016 08 PEEK

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

RPT GMTP 2016 08 PEEK

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD

An Election for the Sole of America

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS AUGUST 2016

1 August 2016 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

AMERICA MUST CHOOSE THE ROAD AHEAD

GLOBAL RISK .......................................................................................................................................... 25

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

World Conflict Map ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 182

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 249

GEO-POLITICAL RISK TENSIONS & CONFLICTS..................................................................................................................... 294

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

SYRIA - Syria "Welcomes" Larger Russia Presence .......................................................................................................................... 320

GEO-POLITICAL RISK GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE......................................................................................................... 426

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 465

GLOBAL MACRO: TIPPING POINTS ...................................................................................................................................... 475

REGIONAL .............................................................................................................................................. 521

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

NEW-RESEARCH Brexit: 5 Things Investors Need to Know .................................................................................................................. 553

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ................................................................................................................................. 638

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS - ITALY Italian Real Annual Gross Wages ............................................................................................................................... 758

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ........................................................................................................................................................... 869

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS - CHINA - Urban Fixed Asset Investment .................................................................................................................................. 1088

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS Japans Export Majors Lost Tech Battle ................................................................................................................................. 1155

EMERGING MARKETS EM CURRENCIES FEEL BREXIT FALLOUT ........................................................................................ 1262

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS Emerging Market USD Corporate Bond Maturities ................................................................................................................ 1269

August 2016 Edition

Copyright 2016 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved

Restricted & Confidential

ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 1369