Small Countries

Government model

CO2 Costs

Hc
Le
Lp

GDP Impact

Em
Tx
Im
m
Lc
P
Q

EPC Contractor

EPC Price

R
c
Wc
Lc

Investors
Wc

Health costs
Life expectancy costs
Land polution costs
Employment
Taxes
Import reduction
Indirect effect of consumption
Local content of EPC
Price
Quantity
Revenue - Government cost

Static
CO2
CO2
CO2

Dynamic
t
t
t

gdp per capita

Em + PxQ

t
t
t
t
t,Q*

m x Em
%EPC

PxQ

Government cost

CO2 avoided cost

GDP Impact

R&D
Other costs efficiency
WACC
Local EPC

Q(t)
Q
stochastic
S -curve
technology risk
local experience Q*

Cost of capital
Risk alocation
Technology risk
Country risk

Q(t)*
Q(t)
Q(t)*

Assumptions

Source
200

10
0.2
60

Per MWh
CO2 emission
GDP Impact
Discovered price

5
0.2
60

PV

30
0.2
60

Wind
200
116.7
316.7

200
95.8
295.8

20
0.2
60

Coal

15
0.2
60

Gas
0
200.0
200.0

Hydro
100
158.3
258.3

200
137.5
337.5

https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_An
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/63947.pdf

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/scc.html
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/scc-tsd-final-july-2015.pdf
http://cleantechnica.com/2010/02/01/each-ton-of-co2-worth-40-in-health-costs/

/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-SOLAR_PV.pdf

-final-july-2015.pdf
health-costs/

CO2 Cost per ton

Total CO2 Cost per MWh
Employment per MWh
Taxes
Import reduction
Indirect effect of consumption
Local content of EPC
Load Factor
Size of projects
Cummulative size of projects installed WW
Cummulative size of projects installed locally
Avoided CO2 per MWh
Total Avoided CO2 in tonns
Main cummulative cost curve
Cost curve
Other cost curve
Local content curve
EPC Price
Technology risk margin
Country risk margin
Base cost of capital
Total cost of capital
Required Price per MWh by Investors
Government discount rate
Economic price per MWh for government
CO2
Employment
Import reduction
Local content of EPC
Export
Total

Demand growth

Merit order of opportunities

1
40
20.0

2
40
20.0

3
40
20.0

4
40
20.0

5
40
20.0

60
0.7
1.20

60
0.7
1.14

60
0.7
1.08

60
0.7
1.05

60
0.7
1.03

20%
2
1
2
0.5
1752

20%
2
2
2
0.5
1752

20%
2
4
4
0.5
1752

20%
2
8
6
0.5
1752

20%
2
16
8
0.5
1752

1
1

1
1.00

2
0.80

3
0.64

4
0.51

7
0.41

1
30%

1.00
0.60

0.94
0.57

0.86
0.54

0.79
0.53

0.72
0.51

5.20

4.61

4.08

3.65

3.30

5.00%
4.00%
7%
16.0%

4.00%
4.00%
7%
15.0%

3.20%
3.20%
7%
13.4%

2.56%
2.81%
7%
12.4%

2.05%
2.56%
7%
11.6%

243

204

163

136

117

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

40

5
20%
60

20%
1

5%
5%

176
70,080
25,029
210,240
188,860

173
70,080
25,029
210,240
179,417

170
70,080
25,029
210,240
170,446

168
70,080
25,029
210,240
165,408

167
70,080
25,029
210,240
161,923

494,208
141.04

484,765
138.35

475,794
135.79

470,756
134.35

467,272
133.35

6
40
20.0

7
40
20.0

8
40
20.0

9
40
20.0

10
40
20.0

60
0.7
1.01

60
0.7
1.00

60
0.7
0.99

60
0.7
0.98

60
0.7
0.97

20%
2
32
10
0.5
1752

20%
2
64
12
0.5
1752

20%
2
128
14
0.5
1752

20%
2
256
16
0.5
1752

20%
2
512
18
0.5
1752

10
0.33

17
0.26

27
0.21

43
0.17

69
0.13

0.66
0.51

0.61
0.50

0.56
0.49

0.51
0.49

0.47
0.48

3.00

2.74

2.53

2.34

2.18

1.64%
2.38%
7%
11.0%

1.31%
2.25%
7%
10.6%

1.05%
2.14%
7%
10.2%

0.84%
2.05%
7%
9.9%

0.67%
1.97%
7%
9.6%

102

90

81

73

67

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

166
70,080
25,029
210,240
159,272

165
70,080
25,029
210,240
157,137

164
70,080
25,029
210,240
155,355

164
70,080
25,029
210,240
153,827

163
70,080
25,029
210,240
152,492

464,620
132.60

462,486
131.99

460,703
131.48

459,176
131.04

457,841
130.66

http://maaw.info/LearningCurv

ttp://maaw.info/LearningCurveSummary.htm