Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Design features for an effective wind energy policy for Viet Nam
Expert Workshop,
14-15 May, InterContinental Hotel Hanoi, Viet Nam
Dear Mr Cuong,
Distinguished guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is a great pleasure to welcome you all on behalf of the German Embassy to this workshop Design
features for an effective wind energy policy in Vietnam.
I am glad to see all the government institutions as well as the energy industry, both public and
private represented here, to discuss the policy framework for wind power in the next two days.
From our experience in renewable energy in Germany, I can tell you: dialogue between all
stakeholders is a critical element to make sure renewable energy markets develop at a rate that is
economically sustainable and acceptable to the entire society.
The German government is eager to share the German experience in the renewable energy sector
also through its development cooperation abroad. This is why we have committed ourselves to
making energy a priority sector in our cooperation with the government of Vietnam. On the basis of
Vietnams Green Growth Strategy we want to support especially the development of renewable
energy technologies as well as energy efficiency.
Both, our financial cooperation through KFW, as well as our technical cooperation through GIZ, are
working closely with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, as well as EVN and other institutions in the
energy sector. Projects and programmes are financed by a variety of German Federal Ministries (BMZ
/ BMUB / BMWi), all of them striving to design modern and sustainable energy policies on the basis
of their respective mandate
At this point, I would like to take the opportunity and thank you, Mr Cuong, and your Ministry and its
staff, for the fruitful and friendly cooperation in recent years, and also extend my word of thanks to
the colleagues from MOIT/GDE and GIZ for the organisation of this workshop!
As most of you know, the most prominent of the renewable energy technologies that we are jointly
working on, is wind power. Vietnam has an excellent potential for electricity generation from wind
resources. We acknowledge that Vietnam has a pressing need to expand its power generation
capacity. In the foreseeable future renewable energy alone is not sufficient in the short-term to
cover the increase of electricity demand.
BUT: renewable energy technologies, and wind power in particular, can make a big contribution to
meeting this need for power. In addition, renewable energy sources offer the opportunity to embark
on the transition to a more sustainable, green and CO2 neutral energy system that can even develop
a new industrial sector, and thereby create many new jobs.
To realise this potential, however, we need a conducive environment. Let me mention three brief
points which, judging from our experiences in Germany, may be decisive also for the development of
the RE sector in Vietnam.
The experience we have made in Germany has taught us that the transition of the energy system
towards renewables, which we call Energiewende (energy transition), is not an easy at times
even painful process as tough political decisions will have to be taken It is a challenge for an
industrialised country like Germany, and even more so for Vietnam. Nevertheless, I believe emerging
markets and economies such as Vietnam can benefit from experiences other countries have made
and thereby shorten the learning process
Renewable energy markets around the world have developed very quickly in the last few years.
Germany has been at the forefront, but so have Denmark, Spain, China, Brazil, and many others.
Most recently, South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco have made big steps forward and in this region,
the Philippines and Thailand present notable success stories.
While those countries differ widely in their economic structure and capacities, one thing they all have
in common is the following:
1) Renewable Energy deployment will not work without the private sector!
On the one hand, it is evident that the public sector does not have the capacity to cover the largescale investments that are required. We need private investors to step in, and provide capital for
wind power projects.
Neither has the public sector the flexibility, the entrepreneurial skills, and the innovative capacity
that is required to realise the energy transition.
Of course, the next point I am going to make, is one, that we all have heard a number of times, BUT,
in my view, it is still an important point to be made as long as it has not been achieved:
2) An attractive, and comprehensive, policy framework is needed to get the private sector on
board.
We, the public sector, have the responsibility to set the framework right. On the one hand, it should
ensure that the Government of Vietnam is not spending more on the development of a wind power
market than it has to. There should be no windfall profits for investors that eventually translate into
a loss for the tax-payer.
On the other, the framework provided, and the incentives given, have to be attractive enough for
investors to make a reasonable amount of profit from it.
This, of course, concerns the Feed-in Tariff, which GIZ has been working on closely with MOIT to help
adjust it to a reasonable level. And we will this discuss this in much greater detail later today.
At least as important, however, is to provide an overarching framework that defines all the processes
and procedures, regulations, and responsibilities of institutions in a clear and transparent way to
investors.
In Germany, we have done this in our Renewable Energy Law (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz, EEG). It
clearly defines all mechanisms and regulations for renewable energy markets.
Before Germany started in 2000 implementing the first Law (EEG), there was no renewable energy
industry and the general know-how about wind energy was very limited. The only wind turbines that
had been installed were those of research institutes and private enthusiasts or environmentalists
from their private funds.
Since then, the electricity generation from wind power has increased tenfold! In 2014 alone, we have
installed nearly 5,000 MW (4,750 MW) of additional wind power capacity. The share of wind power
in overall electricity production is now 8.6 %.
Prices for wind power production have dropped substantially in Germany. The average
remuneration for wind energy is expected to be 9.6 EUR cents in 2015 and is expected to decline
further. However, the German market has also led to price reductions abroad, through learning
curves and significantly decreasing technology prices.
Now, of course we have our very own challenges in the energy sector in Germany with our aim to
phase out nuclear power by 2022, while reducing our CO2 emissions substantially at the same time.
However: to date, the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) has been a big success for us and has also
contributed to the development of an entire industry. The wind sector has increasingly
professionalised and on a macroeconomic level, Germany has profited substantially from it. We have
attracted lots of investment, have created thousands of jobs and have exported substantially and
this leads me to my third and last point:
From the perspective of development cooperation, and indeed the perspective of a country on the
trajectory from a developing country towards an industrialised economy, I believe this is a critical
point.
With a clear policy framework, the wind power sector in Vietnam will be able to attract substantial
private investments, from both foreign as well as domestic capital investments that the public
sector does not have to make.
At the same time, if capacities and skills are build up at all levels, there will first be hundreds, and
later thousands of jobs in the wind industry. In the beginning, this will certainly involve construction,
as well as operation and maintenance. But once the market has been established, it will also move up
to the step of building up manufacturing capacities.
To support this process of local value creation, a highly technological sector such as wind power,
requires qualified people. For German Development Cooperation, this is a particularly fruitful field of
cooperation, linking our two priority areas Technical Vocational Training and Education (TVET) and
Energy. We very much look forward to working with the wind and the TVET sector to support the
training of wind technicians, for example.
The current situation provides an excellent opportunity for Vietnam to enter the wind market.
Vietnam will, in my view, benefit substantially in the medium- to long-term from the development of
a wind power market.
From the viewpoint of a development partner in Vietnam let me say that the indicator for successful
cooperation in the wind sector is not the construction and operationalization of a wind park, but
ultimately the up-scaling and widespread application of technologies. We are proven right when
whatever development impulse has been given by ODA will be up-scaled by market mechanisms on
the basis of sound regulatory frameworks.
Learning from international experiences in numerous other countries, Vietnam can avoid undesirable
developments that have taken place elsewhere (e.g. Germany). At a global level, the industry is well
established, the technology is proven, turbine prices are falling and the lessons of the economics of
the wind market have been learned elsewhere, all of this making it easier for Vietnam than for
preceding countries to introduce wind power
In this sense, I wish us a successful workshop and hope that the discussions taking place today and
tomorrow will lead to the conclusion of a regulatory framework that, this time, is attractive enough
to stimulate the wind energy market in Vietnam.
Implemented by
Page 1
Implemented by
Contents
1. Context of cooperation in the energy sector
2. GIZ Energy Support Programme
3. GIZ support on wind power 2014-2018
Page 2
Implemented by
GER
EEG
RE TAKE OFF
GLOBALLY
Generation
according revised
PDP VII
120
100
80
2020:
258.8-278.9 TWh
60
40
2030:
515.7-632.1 TWh
20
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
Electric P
(kW
1975: Unification
140
Implemented by
RE*;
5.0%
Gas/Oil
; 24.5%
Import;
2.1%
* including SHP
**including storage hydropower
RE*; Import;
6.5% 2.4%
Hydro**
; 39.9%
Coal
thermal
; 28.5%
Installed
Capacity
Gas/Oil;
14.8%
2014:
34 GW
Hydro**;
29.1%
Coal
thermal;
47.3%
2020:
61 GW
Nuclear; Import;
RE*; 3.0%
1.3%
10.2%
Gas/Oil;
17.1%
Hydro**;
17.9%
Coal
thermal;
50.4%
2030:
116 GW
Source: GDE (2015)
Page 4
Implemented by
Limited capacities of
the transmission and
distribution grid
Limited data
availability (and poor
data quality)
Difficult access to
information
Page 5
Implemented by
PRIORITY AREA
Vocational Training
Reform of
Technical and
Vocational
Education and
Training
Hai Phong
Polytechnic College
Bach Nghe
PRIORITY AREA
PRIORITY AREA
Renewable Energy
Support Project
Energy
Upscaling Wind
Energy in Viet Nam
Renewable Energy
and Energy Efficiency
Vocational training
for subway
operation staff
Centre of
Excellence for
Green TVET
Page 6
Implemented by
G 2 G Negotiations
(07/2013)
Renewable Energy
RE+EE (BMZ)
Wind II (BMZ/DKTI)
Bioenergy I (BMUB/IKI) - RESP
Wind I (BMUB)
2009
Legend:
2010
Preparation
2011
2012
Implementation
2013
Extension
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Project Idea
Page 7
Implemented by
Capacity
Development
Technology
Cooperation
Policy Strategies
Government
Institutions
Research
Project Developers
and Investors/
Financial
Institutions
Private Sector
Support
Mechanisms
Regulations
Guidelines
Institution Building
Education
TVET
Implemented by
Solid Waste
Page 9
Implemented by
GIZ/MoIT Wind
Measurement Campaign
Project from 2010-2015
10 sites in 8 provinces
80 m mast
Page 10
Implemented by
Action Area 2:
Capacity Development
Policy advice
Feed-in tariff
Action Area 3:
Technology Cooperation
Market information
Regulation, licensing
Systems analysis
Technical standards, guidelines, e.g.
ESIAs
Page 11
Implemented by
Quantitative:
Wind data
Pre-/feasibility
studies
International
comparison
PDP Targets:
1 GW Wind
Power by 2020
Assumptions
based on P/FS
questionnaires
and international
experience for:
CapEx
O&M
Capacity
Factor
Qualitative:
Interviews
Questionnaires
Assessment of
existing
Framework
Methodology
FIT
calculation
All investor types
must be targeted
with one FIT
Assumed IRR:
10% (internat.
experience)
Basis for
calculations:
LEC (levelized
costs of
electricity)
Additional
incentives like
tax breaks etc.
Result:
10.4 US/kWh (o-s)
Tariff-funded
levy on the electricity
price for 1GW by 2020
less than 5VND/kWh
General
recommendations:
FIT payment system should be
one-stop-shop (not FiT+VNEPF)
Government guarantee for
payments
Better wind measurements and
improved standards
Enforce standard agreements
(network connection and PPA)
Page 12
Implemented by
Develop vision for wind power (as part of the wider electricity sector)
Implemented by
Page 14
20/05/2015
D N NH MY IN GI PH LC
PHU LAC WIND FARM
Hanoi 5/2015
20/05/2015
Main Parameters
Capacity: 24 MW;
Wind Speed: 6.7m/s (60 m);
Location: Ph Lc Commune, Tuy Phong
District; Bnh Thun Province;
Volume: VND 1,089 bil.
Project Progress
Feasibility Study (FS): approved Jan 2010;
Loan Agreement Signing: 04 July 2013;
Local construction activities: 2013-2014;
Selection of consultants: contract signature Nov
2013;
EPC procurement: 2014-2015;
Expected Start: 6/2015
20/05/2015
MEETING WITH KfW TO ARANGE THE LOAN FOR PHU LAC PROJECT
20/05/2015
20/05/2015
20/05/2015
NG VO D N HIN TI
20/05/2015
20/05/2015
Barriers
Lack of reliable information on: wind
measurement, operations
2.
High costs;
Economic/Financial: Intensive capital;
High domestic loan interest
3. Technical:
Biggest barrier:
wind power purchase price!
20/05/2015
VI HNH NH V CNG TY CP
PHONG IN THUN BNH (TBW)
20/05/2015
KONG CHRO
PROJECT
3900 ha
EAH LEO
PROJECT
1920ha
LOI HAI PROJECT
523 ha
VINH HAO
PROJECT
572 ha
10
20/05/2015
11
20/05/2015
12
20/05/2015
13
12/05/2015
Contents
12/05/2015
International Expertise
Wind
Solar
1,260 MW pipeline developed in France, USA, Vietnam and French West Indies
100 MW pipeline developed in France and USA
218m EUR of equity and bank project financing raised in France, Spain and the USA
7.5m EUR of project financing raised in France and 6m USD in Thailand
Project finance advisory on 500 MW in China, USA and Thailand
Project finance advisory on 37 MW in Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh
Wind Engineering experience of 950MW in North America, Australia and South Africa
Biomass
Hydro
12/05/2015
TBC Milestones
The Blue Circle is the only wind focused developer in the Region with:
Incorporation of
The Blue Circle
Nov 2013
12/05/2015
12/05/2015
Example of Regulations or Best practices for Residential areas setback distance (m)
in Wind industry in different countries
10
12/05/2015
11
There is no real regulations nor best practices to the date on the minimum distance
between wind power projects.
However, The limit for wake loss effect generally accepted internationally between
wind turbines is 7 x rotor diameter in the main wind direction. This distance is also
recommended by turbine manufacturers for fatigue mitigation. Nevertheless, wind
turbines could be much closer if not in the main direction.
12
12/05/2015
Each country has its own Aviation Authority Regulations with fairly different
recommendations of setbacks depending of importance of the Structure (how
high is the building/tower/wind turbine) and the type of Airport (major,
secondary, local, small airfield - civil, military, small private airfield, VOR or not
(VOR : VHF Omnidirectional Range) )
Generally Runway are oriented along the prevailing main Wind Direction
For Major Civil Airport, a setback distance of around 15km is generally used as
guide for Exclusion area
For secondary Civil airport / Military, a range from 5 to 10km round or elliptical
buffer (along the prevailing Wind direction/runway) are mentioned, though
some turbines have been located much closer at a few airports.
13
Other Recommendations
The Blue Circle is committed to make Wind Energy become a reality in Vietnam
14
12/05/2015
Contact Details
15
Implemented by
Page 1
Implemented by
Page 2
Implemented by
Risks
Economic Risk
Risk that economic factors beyond the control of the project impact revenues, or
profitability: e.g. recessions, macroeconomic shocks, etc.
Political Risk
Performance Risk
Risk that the wind or solar resource will fluctuate beyond projections, or
underperform: particularly disruptive if this occurs in the early years
Regulatory Risk
Risk that regulators change the rules of the game (e.g. Spain, Czech Republic with
FIT contracts). Investment performance relies on a stable regulatory regime.
Off-taker Risk
Risk that the buyer (e.g. utility) experiences financial difficulties, and can no longer
honor the PPA, or other obligations.
Technology Risk
Construction Risk
Risk that construction faces local opposition, or delays due to operational or project
management failures
Revenue Risk
Currency Risk
Risk that the currency in which sales are denominated changes abruptly or
significantly over time in relation to the currency in which the project was financed
(e.g. EUR, USD)
14/05/2015
Page 3
Implemented by
What is a PPA?
A power purchase agreement (PPA) is a contract between two parties,
one who generates electricity for the purpose (the seller) and one who
is looking to purchase electricity (the buyer).
The PPA defines all of the commercial terms for the sale of electricity
between the two parties, including when the project will begin
commercial operation, schedule for delivery of electricity, penalties for
under delivery, payment terms, and termination.
14/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
What is a PPA?
Goal:
The goal of good PPAs is to provide a revenue stream to the
developer that is sufficient to recover their costs for a given project, plus
a reasonable return on investment. This is what constitutes a
bankable PPA.
Page 5
14/05/2015
Implemented by
14/05/2015
Page 6
Implemented by
Major developers will normally prefer to receive their payments in the same
currency as the one their debt payments are due.
This avoids friction losses due to currency exchange fees, and helps
reassure lenders that the cash flows from the project will be sufficient
to honor the projects debt obligations.
Page 7
14/05/2015
Implemented by
For solar and wind projects an inflation indexation of 5-20% of the tariff
value is generally recommended
should ideally offset, at a minimum, the inflation risk facing the
proportion of project expenditures incurred locally (e.g. O&M
expenses).
14/05/2015
Page 8
Implemented by
Require utilities to purchase all power produced by the project. This is often
referred to as a take and pay arrangement.
particularly important for wind and solar projects, as these incur large
fixed costs that can only be recovered from power sales, which are
predicated on a certain number of full load hours per year, based on
the local solar or wind resource.
Without a guarantee that the power will be purchased when it is
produced, lenders and investors will be unable to confirm that the
revenues from power sales will be sufficient to cover debt payments.
Page 9
14/05/2015
Implemented by
Clearly stipulate who is responsible for any loss revenues that result
applies to any additional or retroactive taxation that were not part of
14/05/2015
Page 10
Implemented by
The PPA should clearly outline (or better, negotiate) what risks the
developer or investor is responsible for assuming.
Page 11
14/05/2015
Implemented by
14/05/2015
Page 12
Implemented by
Outline the specific conditions under which the off-taker or the project owner
can terminate the PPA
Any termination should provide for sufficient grace period to both
parties, as well as cure rights.
Termination clauses should also include specification of a
Page 13
Implemented by
clearly stipulate which party is responsible for connecting the facility to the
network
clearly stipulate how the costs of any additional network upgrades beyond
the connection point with be shared.
In many cases, the costs of any upstream upgrades are assumed by
the utility, and not by the project developer
The project developer is responsible for connecting the facility to the
network at an agreed-upon point, and for building any substations or
14/05/2015
Page 14
Implemented by
It is critical to identify the counterparty to the PPA (the entity purchasing the
power) and to ensure that it is sufficiently capitalized to make all payments
to IPPs as stipulated in the PPAs.
Also, the entity should be provided with implicit or explicit backing (i.e.
guarantee) from the government of Vietnam.
Page 15
14/05/2015
Implemented by
Also, unless exempt, projects >10MW must pay an annual registration fee of
$800.
Process is simple and streamlined, and uses standard documents and forms
14/05/2015
Page 16
Implemented by
14/05/2015
Implemented by
Implemented by
No wind PPA has yet been signed in Vietnam with foreign investors
Page 19
14/05/2015
Implemented by
Clear rules at each step of the process: grid code, licensing, environmental
approvals, etc.
Page 20
10
Implemented by
Concluding Remarks
-
14/05/2015
Page 21
Implemented by
2.
3.
4.
Clarify responsibilities
5.
14/05/2015
Page 22
11
Implemented by
Sample PPAs
NREL 2010, Power Purchase Agreement Checklist for State and Local Governments
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46668.pdf
http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/buygp/solarpower.htm
14/05/2015
Page 23
Implemented by
Sample PPAs
RCREEE 2012, Power Purchase Agreement Model for Electricity Generated From
Renewable Energy in RCREEE Member States, http://www.rcreee.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/03/ModelsGuides_PowerPurchaseAgreementModelForElectricity
GeneratedFromRenewableEnergyInRCREEEMemberStates_2012_EN.pdf
http://mfin.gov.mt/en/home/enemalta/Documents/World%20Bank%20ppa%205.pdf
http://ppp.worldbank.org/public-private-partnership/sector/energy/energy-poweragreements/power-purchase-agreements#key_features
14/05/2015
Page 24
12
Implemented by
www.e3analytics.eu
Page 25
13
20/05/2015
AGENDA
1. Policies and targets for renewable energy
(RE) development
2. Potentials for wind energy resources and
current development of wind power
projects
3. Support policies and mechanisms for
development
May 2015
20/05/2015
2012 National Green Growth Strategy goal: Development of a lowcarbon economy on a sustainable basis, reduced GHG emissions and
increased GHG absorption
PDP VII:
In response to this, the GoV plans to increase the RE share in the national
energy mix (Decision 1208/QD-TT):
2020 : RE share of 4.5%
2030 : RE share of 6%.
2.10%
3%
4.50%
2020
6%
24%
46.80%
2030
4%
19.60%
10%
9%
15%
56%
Hydro power
Coal
Natural gas
RE
Nuclear
Imported
20/05/2015
RE Capacity (MW)
Estimated Developable
Land Area
(km2)
Theoretical
Potential
(MW)
<4
95,916
959,161
4-5
70,868
708,678
5-6
40,473
404,732
6-7
2,435
24,351
7-8
220
2,202
8-9
20
200
>9
10
Tng
209,933
2,099,333
20/05/2015
Technical Potential
MoIT 2012 Assessment
No.
Province
H Tnh
Qung Bnh
Kon Tum
Bnh nh
Gia Lai
Ph Yn
Daklak
District
Speed (m/s)
6.0 6.5
6.5 - 7.0
> 7.0
K Anh
3.9
Qung Ninh
7.9
L Thy
11.9
KonPlng
3.9
Ph M
7.9
Ph Ct
11.9
Quy Nhn
11.9
TP Pleiku
11.9
Mang Yang
39.6
Krong Cho
15.8
Ch S
63.4
Ch Prong
83.2
TX Tuy Ha
7.9
Tuy Ha
11.9
Ea H'leo
55.5
Krong Nng
7.9
Krong Buk
47.5
C M'gar
15.8
Area (km)
Potential (MW)
3.9
15.6
19.8
79.2
3.9
15.6
31.7
126.8
213.9
855.6
19.8
79.2
126.8
507.0
Pham
Ngo Thi
Thuy
ToDung
Nhien
Hanoi,
Berlin,14-15
1-5 July
May,2013
2015
8
9
10
Province
Khnh Ha
Ninh Thun
Bnh Thun
11
B Ra Vng Tu
12
Bn Tre
13
Tr Vinh
14
Sc Trng
Area (km)
Pham
Ngo Thi
Thuy
ToDung
Nhien
District
Speed (m/s)
6.0 - 6.5
6.5 - 7.0
> 7.0
Cam Ranh
32
Ninh Hi
7.9
11.9
Phan Rang
31.7
Ninh Phc
126.8
59.4
TP Phan Thit
83.2
19.8
4.0
Tuy Phong
75.3
59.4
27.7
Bc Binh
114.9
51.5
11.9
Hm Thun Bc
7.9
Hm Thun Nam
67.3
7.9
3.9
7.9
Bnh i
7.9
Ba Tri
4.0
Thnh Ph
31.7
Chu Thnh
3.9
Duyn Hi
67.3
Vnh Chu
Area (km)
Potential
(MW)
320
128.0
237.7
950.6
534.7
2138.6
7.9
31.6
43.6
174.3
71.2
284.9
16
16.0
64.0)
1,105
210
47
1.363
5,451
Hanoi,
Berlin,14-15
1-5 July
May,2013
2015
20/05/2015
Financing sources:
ODA: 02 projects (PhuLac- KfW, LoiHai- Danida)
State budget: 01 project (Ph Qu Island)
Government guarantee: 01 project (Bc Liu
Project, financed by US Eximbank)
IPP: remaining projects
Pham Thuy Dung
20/05/2015
Power purchase responsibility: EVN shall be required to purchase all power generated
from RE sources on the basis of SPPA.
Infrastructure/land incentives
20/05/2015
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Implementation arrangements
20/05/2015
4. Solutions
Management
Focal points for planning management, technical assistance
for the development of RE support/policy mechanisms; ODA
sources for development support or RE projects;
Resource mapping and RE database;
Establishment of national standards for wind power
technology equipment;
Development of support mechanisms for domestic equipment
manufacturing and service industry in the wond power sector;
Organization of capacity development programs for
universities TVET institutions;
Considerations on the possible promulgation of RE Law.
4. Solutions
RE Potential Maps
RE potential maps
Wind
Solar energy
Biomass energy
Hydro power
Management of licensing
procedure
Pham Thuy Dung
20/05/2015
4. Solutions
RE Database
RE-related mechanisms/policies
National and provincial RE
development strategies and goals
Financial mechanisms for and
interest support to RE
development
Database of RE pipeline,
approved, on-going and gridconnected projects
Legal and
policy
frameworks
Integrated
Database on
Renewable
Energy
Database of RE projects
GIS map(s) and reports on RE
potential assessment reports
Information on RE technologies,
enterprises/research institutions
RE-related training/capacity
building materials/handbooks
Strategy
and targets
Local Skills
Financing
resources
R&D
innovation
RE
Database
(potentials,
projects,...)
Implemented by
Page 1
Implemented by
Agenda
Development of the global wind market
Wind energy in Viet Nam benefits
Decentralised deployment
Energy security
Value creation and jobs
Wind in 2030: a vision for the sector
15/05/2015
Page 2
Implemented by
Non-Renewables
(Coal, Gas Nuclear, Oil)
81%
70%
Renewable
energy
expanding
quicker than
conventional
energy
58%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Renewables
42%
19%
10%
0%
Total net capacity
added per year [GW]
Renewables
Non-renewables (Coal,
Gas, Nuclear, Oil)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
104
134
150
153
134
180
200
174
185
232
234
233
207
20
22
34
36
41
47
56
67
85
94
115
116
120
84
111
116
116
93
133
145
107
100
138
118
117
87
Source: IRENA database
15/05/2015
Page 3
Implemented by
MW
369,553
350,000
318,596
300,000
283,068
238,139
250,000
197,953
200,000
159,089
150,000
120,725
100,000
50,000
0
47,620
31,100 39,431
17,400 23,900
7,600 10,200 13,600
59,091
73,959
93,911
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
15/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 5
Implemented by
4500
0.35
4000
0.3
3500
0.25
3000
0.2
2500
0.15
2000
0.1
1500
0.05
1000
India
China
Brazil
United
States
Germany
CAPEX
Europe
LCOE [US$/kWh]
CAPEX [US$/kW]
LCOE
Page 6
Implemented by
()
Source: AWS Truepower (2011)
15/05/2015
Page 7
Implemented by
Benefits wind
Decentralised deployment
South and centre (close to load centres)
Capital requirements for transmission
Regional development (investments,
jobs)
Local ownership
Electrification of remote areas/islands
15/05/2015
Page 8
Implemented by
Benefits wind
Security of supply
15/05/2015
Page 9
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 10
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Grid
Connection
Installation
Financial Services
Education
Reconstruction/
Recycling
O&M
R&D
Consulting
Policy-makers
Legal advisers
Project developers
Site engineers
Operations managers
Environmental consultants
Financial advisers
Construction engineers
(foundations, roads, etc.)
Manufacturing
Procurement specialists
Researchers
15/05/2015
Page 11
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 12
Implemented by
FDI in manufacturing
15/05/2015
Page 13
Implemented by
5/12/2015
Implemented by
Page 15
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 16
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 17
Implemented by
Peter Cattelaens
Technical Advisor
Page 18
Implemented by
Policy design
Page 1
Implemented by
Current Status
-
15/05/2015
Page 2
Implemented by
Current Status
Primary issues holding back wind development:
-
15/05/2015
Page 3
Implemented by
Current Status
Two step process is underway:
1) Improving the investment and regulatory conditions to enable
the first 1.000MW of wind power to be developed and
integrated into the network
2) Create the experience and momentum required to achieve Viet
Nams longer term RE target of over 6.000MW of wind by 2030
15/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 6
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 7
Implemented by
RE Technologies
15/05/2015
Page 8
Implemented by
Page 9
15/05/2015
Implemented by
RE Finance
15/05/2015
Page 10
Implemented by
RE Finance
Page 11
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Page 12
Implemented by
Risks
Economic Risk
Risk that economic factors beyond the control of the project impact revenues, or
profitability: e.g. recessions, macroeconomic shocks, etc.
Political Risk
Performance Risk
Risk that the wind or solar resource will fluctuate beyond projections, or
underperform: particularly disruptive if this occurs in the early years
Regulatory Risk
Risk that regulators change the rules of the game (e.g. Spain, Czech Republic with
FIT contracts). Investment performance relies on a stable regulatory regime.
Off-taker Risk
Risk that the buyer (e.g. utility) experiences financial difficulties, and can no longer
honor the PPA, or other obligations.
Technology Risk
Construction Risk
Risk that construction faces local opposition, or delays due to operational or project
management failures
Revenue Risk
Currency Risk
Risk that the currency in which sales are denominated changes abruptly or
significantly over time in relation to the currency in which the project was financed
(e.g. EUR, USD)
Page 13
Implemented by
Concluding Remarks
What is required is an
evolutionary approach
15/05/2015
Page 14
Implemented by
Page 15
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Page 16
Implemented by
Policy design
Page 1
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 2
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 3
Implemented by
2.
3.
4.
Clarify responsibilities
5.
15/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
One-stop-shop
Tax
Tariff
ODA
Implementation:
Governmental agency
Escrow account
Trust fund
15/05/2015
Page 5
Implemented by
Recommendations (continued)
1. Redesign of FiT distribution payment as one-stop-shop
2. Government guarantee for FiT of sufficient level: 10.4 UScents/kWh
3. Provide better quality wind speed measurements & improved
standards
4. Provide comprehensive information on wind power planning at
provincial and national level
5. Remove current uncertainties regarding overlapping land use
planning
6. Address present limits in local consulting and engineering
capacity and logistics
7. Integrate tax-break opportunities to developers and manufacturers
etc.
15/05/2015
Page 6
Implemented by
Open Discussion
15/05/2015
Page 7
Implemented by
Managing Director
of E3 Analytics
Matobis AG
www.e3analytics.eu
Dominik.Dersch@matobis.de
15/05/2015
Page 8
Implemented by
Monitoring
Page 1
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 2
Implemented by
Project interconnections
Etc.
Page 3
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
Cost Monitoring:
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Cost Monitoring:
Page 6
Implemented by
However, Viet Nam remains far from achieving its RE targets: caps
should therefore not act to restrict wind power development, particularly
in the early stages
See: Kreycik, C., Couture, T., Cory, K., (2011). Innovative FIT Designs that Limit Policy Costs,
National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Available at: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/50225.pdf
Page 7
15/05/2015
Implemented by
2.
15/05/2015
Tariff-based approaches
a.
Germany
b.
France
c.
Denmark
Regulatory approaches
a.
Cape Verde
b.
Ontario
c.
South Africa
Page 8
Implemented by
Tariff-based Approaches
Primary Reasons:
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Page 10
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Page 12
Implemented by
Years 6 20
(Remaining 180 months)
EUR 89.3/MWh
EUR 48.7/MWh
EUR 89.3/MWh
EUR 48.7/MWh
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Map of the
geographic
spread of wind
farms in Germany
(2012)
Source:
http://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/AnalysenKompakt/2014/DL_01_201
4.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3
15/05/2015
Page 14
Implemented by
No reference turbine
All producers receive the same payment for the first 10 years
Page 15
15/05/2015
Implemented by
After year 10, all wind projects in France will fall somewhere on
this curve, and receive the corresponding tariff for the remaining
5 years of the FIT contract. .
Page 16
Implemented by
Page 17
Implemented by
Page 18
Implemented by
Cape Verde
b.
Ontario
c.
South Africa
15/05/2015
Page 19
Implemented by
Page 20
10
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 21
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 22
11
Implemented by
Heritage assessments
Landscape/visual assessment
Socio-economic assessment
15/05/2015
Page 23
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Source: https://redzs.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/SEA-Phase-2-Presentation.pdf
Page 24
12
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Source: https://redzs.csir.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/SEA-Phase-2-Presentation.pdf
Page 25
Implemented by
Concluding Remarks
Oversight is a continuous process. It requires:
-
A layered approach
Transparent rules
15/05/2015
Page 26
13
Implemented by
Concluding Remarks
- There are no major challenges integrating low shares (<10%)
of variable RE (vRE) technologies (IEA 2014)
- However, avoiding hot spots remains important
- A sound planning and monitoring regime is therefore required
- New inverter and control technologies (e.g. reactive power
supply) can also help stabilize the grid and improve system
integration of wind power
-
These are now required for all large wind plants in Germany
15/05/2015
Source: http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/givar2014sum.pdf
Page 27
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 28
14
Implemented by
Page 29
15/05/2015
Implemented by
Page 30
15
Implemented by
Page 1
Implemented by
Agenda
Local/domestic value creation along the value chain for wind energy
projects
Summary
15/05/2015
Page 2
Implemented by
political strategies
capability of the industrial sector
specific knowledge of wind energy experts
ability to cooperate internationally
structure of the conventional power sector
access to fossil fuels
15/05/2015
Page 3
Implemented by
We distinguish between
15/05/2015
Page 4
Implemented by
*) Imported fuels, products or services, e.g. through external expertise in project development or imported material
do not add to local value!
15/05/2015
Page 5
Implemented by
Project Planning/Development
Project
Realisation
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
(*):
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Project
Realisation
Pro
Develo
Supporting
Processes
P
M
Consulting
2015-05-14
Page 6
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Manufacturing
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
Page 7
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
civil engineering
infrastructure works
side preparation
access roads
cranes and transport*)
Foundation
and assembling of wind farm.
*) For a project of 150 MW, transportation requirements could be as much as 689 truckloads,
140 railcars and 8 ships
2015-05-14
Page 8
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid Connection
Grid
Connection
Education
Reconstruction/
Recycling
O&M
R&D
Consulting
Page 9
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
2015-05-14
Page 10
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Decommissioning
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
deconstruction,
recycling, disposal or reselling of components
refurbishing of equipment
And a process for repowering can be started with additional value added
along the value chain.
2015-05-14
Page 11
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
2015-05-14
Page 12
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
Policy has to set long term targets for a permanent increase of the share
of wind energy on the general energy mix
and guarantee legal frame work conditions to create a calculable basis for
long term planning for
Investors
Developers
Manufacturers
Operators
education and training centers, training departments of the industry
but also for the personal career planning of wind energy experts
2015-05-14
Page 13
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
2015-05-14
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Financial Services
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
Funds may also come from private investors (green funds) and from
municipalities.
2015-05-14
Page 15
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
O&M
R&D
Reconstruction/
Recycling
Consulting
Page 16
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
Reconstruction/
Recycling
O&M
R&D
Consulting
Page 17
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Education
Reconstruction/
Recycling
O&M
R&D
Consulting
Page 18
Implemented by
Supporting
Processes
Project
Development
Policy
Making
Manufacturing
Installation
Financial Services
Grid
Connection
Reconstruction/
Recycling
O&M
Education
R&D
Consulting
technical expertise
legal competence
Lawyers to assist in drafting and reviewing contracts and legal structures, including
tax legislation or financial issues
Technical consultants to evaluate the wind potential on a specific site
Page 19
Implemented by
Beginning of
wind energy
development
First projects
realized, local
industries
suitable for
participating
Many projects
realized, national
wind industry
developing
Project
development
medium if PD are
available
otherwise low
medium to high
high
Manufacturing
Local components
Installation
Low to medium
medium
high
Grid connection
high
high
high
Operation &
maintenance
Low to medium
high
high
The Potential domestic value creation in a country depends much on its status
of wind energy sector development
Page 20
10
Implemented by
Beginning of
wind energy
development
First projects
realized, local
industries
suitable for
participating
Many projects
realized, national
wind industry
developing
Consulting
medium to high
high
Capacity
Building
medium if trainer
available
Medium to high
high
Research &
development
low
medium
high
Financial
services
medium
increasing
high
Policy making
required
required
required
The Potential domestic value creation in a country depends much on its status
of wind energy sector development
The Socio-economic Benefits of Solar and Wind Energy, Irena 2014/revised KK
Page 21
Implemented by
20.05.2015
Page 22
11
Implemented by
20.05.2015
Page 23
Implemented by
20.05.2015
Page 24
12
Implemented by
20.05.2015
Page 25
Implemented by
Summary I/III
Development of wind energy can create high economic values and social
and environmental benefits for Vietnam but he potential of domestic value
creation depends on:
the political support resp. on the legal, economic and financial framework conditions,
on the development status of the domestic renewable energy sector,
and to a very great extent on the knowledge and experience of
experts along the renewable energy value chain
The more services performed on the different levels of the value chain
nationally, the higher the national value added (direct added value, indirect
and induced values)
To add local value, employment opportunities have to be extended on all
relevant sectors. This needs capacity building and international
cooperation
2015-05-14
Page 26
13
Implemented by
Summary II/III
Vietnam can import high technology at reasonable prices and thus contribute
to possibly lower prices for wind electricity
if negotiations with deliverers are favorable,
but without direct added local economic value.
Or Vietnam tries to develop the wind energy sector on all levels as fast as
possible. Increasing economic added value can then be realized,
but it may need some time to reach international quality level and low
costs for the equipment,
but an increasing number of Vietnamese experts are gaining also
knowledge and experience in a high tech sector useful also for other
technical developments, needed on Vietnams planned way to become
a industrialized country by 2020.
2015-05-14
Page 27
Implemented by
Summary III/III
Environmental and socio-economic advantages
Environmental benefits can be achieved even when most of the components
or the complete wind farm equipment is imported and project developing is
done by foreign experts. But, as said, there is hardly any economic direct
domestic value added!
Socio-economic and environmental advantages of wind energy deployment:
increasing air quality
less acid rain
reduced costs for unemployment
a more balanced trade balance and balance of payment (saving foreign
currency and reduce dependency from fluctuating exchange rates and
increasing dependency from import of fossil fuels).
Technical, managerial knowledge will increase as well as environmental
sensibility and better understanding of climate issues are possible
2015-05-14
Page 28
14
Implemented by
15/05/2015
Page 29
15