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Thefutureofoureconomy
Asmallerlabourforceisrequiredtomeetextantdemand,leadingtoaviciouscycleoflowerdemandandemployment
Theeconomyhasnotbehavedthewayeconomictextbooks
prescribeeversincetheglobalfinancialcrisisbrokeoveradecade
ago.Economicpoliciesareprovingtobesingularlyineffectivein
revivingtheglobaleconomy.Governmentshavebeenrunninglevels
offiscaldeficitsandpublicdebtthatmosteconomistsbaulkat.
Centralbankshavebeenexperimentingwithunorthodoxpolicies
suchasquantitativeeasing,zerointerestrateandnownegative
interestratepolicy.Butallthekingsmenandhorseshavebeen
unabletoputHumptyDumptybacktogetheragain.
Isthisatemporaryphenomenonoranindicatorofstructural
transformationunderway?Ifso,transformingintowhatexactly?What
doesoureconomicfuturelooklike?Wherecanweturntogeta
glimpseofthis?
Photo:Reuters

Sciencefictionisperhapsouronlysource.Pastexperienceindicates
thathumaningenuityisonlylimitedbyimagination.Afterall,several
fancifulsciencefictionconstructshaveeventuallycomeabout,such
assubmarines,tanks,spaceships,robotsandrecently,3Dprinters.Manymoremaydosointhefuture.Weshouldneverstopimaginingthis
future.
StarTrekhaslongbeenacknowledgedasoneofthemorethoughtfulworksofsciencefiction.Althoughoriginallysetinthe21stcentury
wherethecrewprofileofUSSEnterprisemirroredthatoftheillfatedColumbiaspaceshuttle,thesubsequentNextGenerationseriesisset
inthe24th.Inanewbook,Trekonomics,ManuSaadiahasgleanedthekindofeconomyexpectedfarintothefuture.
Thereisnosuchthingasmoney,theuniversalstoreofvalueandexchange,asthisisasocietyofplentyratherthanofscarcity.Thereis,
consequently,noneedfortradeandmarkets.Allthesehavebeenaroundsincethedawnofhumancivilization.Thisrevolutionary
developmentismadepossiblebythereplicator,somekindofhardwarethatusesadvancedcomputingpowertomaterializeanythingwe
canimagineinanyquantitybyrearrangingatomsandmolecules.Theimplicationisthatcurrenteconomictheory,basedonscarce
resources,nolongerholds.Therewouldbenoneedtomeasuretherateofeconomicgrowthasameasureofwellbeing.Theeconomic
textbooksandAdamSmithsofthefutureremainpartofthefuturefornow.
Soundsutopian?Butconsiderthis:Theglobaleconomyhasforsometimenowbeenafflictedbydemandratherthansupplyconstraints.
Consumerpriceinflationhasbeentamed,andcentralbanksarecurrentlyfindingitdifficulttoraiseittotargetedlevels.Itwasnotlongago
thattheywerestrugglingwithjusttheobverseproblem,ofloweringinflation.Howhasthiscomeabout?
Partofthereasonforsubdueddemandistechnologicaladvancement,leadingproductivitylevelstoreachatippingpoint.Adiminishing
percentageofthelabourforceisrequiredtomeetextantdemand.Thishasledtoaviciouscycleoflowerdemandandloweremployment.As
competitionincreases,thereisenhancedpressuretoimproveproductivity,withinformationtechnology,automation,robotsandartificial
intelligencereplacinghumanlabourmoreandmore.
Atthecurrentbreathtakingpaceoftechnologicalprogress,anavalancheofresourcesisbeingmadeavailable.Considerenergy.Itwasonly
ashortwhileagothatoilpriceshadtouched$150perbarrel.Withrenewablesincreasinglyavailable,theprognosisforoilpricesisnot
bright.Whathappensifandwhenhumanstapdirectlyintothesunsenergy,andatomsandmolecules,thebuildingblocksofallmatter,are
useddirectlyintheproductionprocess?Surelythereplicatorcannotbemorethanacoupleofcenturiesaway?
Withthereplicatorcomesanewmentalitandnewformsofsocialorganization.Tobeginwith,thereisnoneedforhumanstoworktomake
aliving.Therewouldbenoneedtostealortopossessthings.Thisdoesnot,however,turnhumansintoslothsastheyneverthelessdesire
toworkasaformofselfactualizationandtowintheadmirationofpeersbyendeavouringtoimprovetheoveralllotofhumanity.With
everybodyattainingthehigherechelonsofAbrahamMaslowsneedshierarchy,theproportionofthoseinapositiontocontributeto
advancingknowledgewouldrisedramatically,acceleratingtherateofhumanprogress.Globalintegration,atrendlongunderway,is
assuredandwithextraterrestrialcontact,interplanetarycooperationisalsoeminentlylikely,onthelinesoftheunitedfederationofplanets
inStarTrek.Thisismadepossiblebytheinventionofthewarpdrive(enablingintergalactictravelbybeatingthetimebarrier)andtele
transportation(thattakescareofirritatinglastmileconnectivity).
WhereStarTrekstandsoutfrommostothersciencefictionisinitsvisionofmanasultimatelycooperativeandaltruisticratherthan
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ThefutureofoureconomyPrintViewLivemint

dystopian.ThisisinkeepingwiththespiritoftheEuropeanEnlightenmentthatunderscoredtheperfectibilityofman.Itiseasytolosesightof
thiswithtalkofBrexit,nationalistresurgencesandviolenceunleashedbysmall,marginalgroupsleveragingadvanceddestructive
technologiesallofitseeminglyescalatingallaroundus.Butwhilehistoryhasapatternanddirection,discernibleretrospectively,this
directionisneverlinear.Despitethecurrentdoomandgloom,humansaremateriallybetteroffthanwhentheystarted,andtheirfuturelooks
evenbrighter.
Allthesemayseemnotionsonthefringesofourimaginativeabilities.Butifthepastisanyguide,asitshouldbeandifcurrenteconomic
anomaliesareindicativeofstructuraltransitiontosomethingelselookingsofaraheadmaybenoidlefancy.Neithertheauthornorthe
readerwillbearoundtoseetheseideascometofruition.Butcometheywill.
AlokSheelisaretiredcivilservant.
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