Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Dr.C.K.Narayans
Ni yEdge
17thFebruary2014
GrowthAvenues 2014 AllRightsReserved~h p://www.growthavenues.com1
17thFebruary2014
SUMMARY
Theevidencehas
changedquickly
overtheweekand
nowpointsto
downwarddirec
onfortheindices.
WehaveaTCDfor
17th.Markthe
highandlowofthis
dateandcheck
aheadhowthe
markettrades.
Watchthemoves
intheUsdInrcharts
asitcanimpactthe
trendsintheNi y
inthedaysahead.
17thFebruary2014
It is not necessary that this should happen right o the bat from Monday. Like I stated earlier, the market is currently well liquidated
and there could be some a empt to hoist it higher to get be er prices to sell. I know that sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory but
then the market is indeed ruled by some interested par es, no ma er how much we say they are not. The way I would suggest ap
GrowthAvenues 2014 AllRightsReserved~h p://www.growthavenues.com3
TRADESUMMARY
Shortposi onsifanyin
BankNi ywouldhave
beentriggeredoutata
profitusingthe100
pointtrailingstopas
discussedinFriday
le er.
Nofreshtradesareen
visagedun lthereis
someclarity.Sono
freshtradesasofnow.
17thFebruary2014
Monthly support area to break?
proaching it would be to have a bearish bias, look for levels from where the index should reverse to down, be alert for news and
events that may impact the market nega vely and iden fy some short term supports that need to break to rearm the bearish read
ing. For this I would suggest maintaining the moving average band levels (at 60856100 on Monday) as the higher levels from where it
should drop. At the me of wri ng of this le er, I find the Sgx Ni y trading at that zone already. So perhaps we should be alert for
early in the week for the trend signal to be set up?
The Ni y monthly chart is featured here. We can note the
bearish engulfing pa ern of January and how Feb candle has
been staying below the body of Jan candle, implying con n
ued bearishness. Some arrows are shown. The first one is at
the mid point of the Jan candle body, at 6215, which can be
taken as the resistance levels in case of rallies ahead in this
month. The second one is the mid point of the October 13
candle which was the nearest long body candle. This is at
6050 levels and ideally, this should not be breaking in case
the market does not wish to go lower. Hence a con nued
subsistence below 6050 levels would be a signal of what the
market intends to do ahead. The third arrow is the lower
por on of the candle body at 5800 levels which should be
treated as the major support zone in case of declines ahead.
We are currently on the verge of breaking below the middle
arrow and that would be a bearish signal, quite in line with
some of the other bearish signals that I have discussed earli
er.
Nifty fut Monthly
Candle value areas for definNot shown here but the momentum readings in the monthly
ing supports resistances.
chart never really did confirm the push to new highs that we
got in the month earlier. This is true even in the weekly as
well as daily charts too.
One of the important contributors to the trends in the Ni y is the trends in the INR and hence it would be useful to look at the trends
GrowthAvenues 2014 AllRightsReserved~h p://www.growthavenues.com4
17thFebruary2014
Watch the UsdInr progress..
in this area too. Wri ng in our Forex advisory le er CurrencyRadar, issue dated 8th Feb, I had wri en, Atradabledeclineinthe
UsdInrpairseemstobeintheongahead. Quite in line with this the INR has improved form its lows around 63.35 in end Jan to
around 62.05 by last week. This strengthening has been helped by some dis nct weakness in the Dollar. We had an cipated this in
our Currency Radar le er, commen ng Giventhemul plefailuresatthis
Dollar Index daily
resistanceandthefactthatthemomentumsignalsareconsistentlyfizzling
out,itmaynotbeoutofplacetoexpectadownbreakfromthepa ern.
The Dollar index chart shown here exhibits a dis nct weakness, with a
down break from a triangle pa ern on the daily charts. The accompanying
Rsi chart also shows a slip beneath recent lows, implying that the down
break is accompanied by momentum so more declines ahead for the Dol
lar? Aiding the strengthening of the Rupee is the con nued inflow of FII
money into the debt markets. We have seen a slight resump on of flow
into the equity markets too a er a lull.
So we need to keep an eye out on the Rupee trends ahead because a
strong situa on here would probably slow down any decline in the equity
markets. It is not dicult to think that there is no sovereign yield running at 89% where the Central bank is in good control and the
governor actually raises the rates with an elec on a few months away! That too when the overall economic climate is nothing great.
This would definitely make the FIIs sit up and take no ce and want more of such a market. So con nued inflow of FII money into the
debt side is quite a probability and that ought to be enough to keep the Rupee afloat and the losses in the Ni y contained.
The situa on in the Bank Ni y is not much be er. In fact, the BNF con nues to be weak and any breakdown from current levels would
be an invita on to short further. However, it has formed a ledge and needs to break below 10000 for the declines to get a deeper bite
into the trend. The op on posi on is stacked at 10000 call strike and one can watch how the OI at this strike changes to take a view on
what traders are doing.
It is possible that we may get some vola lity but that could be small range and make trading dicult. I suggest s cking to one side for
trading rather than swing both ways. Current evidence bias is towards the downside and henceun l some new evidence presents
itself we want to look for points to sell and find stocks that are hi ng resistances or breaking down from consolida ons or forming
bearish pa erns etc to trade this week.
GrowthAvenues 2014 AllRightsReserved~h p://www.growthavenues.com5
17thFebruary2014
Stock Trades (Update)
TATAMOTORS
Post results this stock has shown fair bit of resilience and has been char ng higher grounds. We managed to
achieve our targets. The bias in this stock con nues to be bullish and stop can be trailed and held for further
gains.
BATAINDIA
Market whipsaws saw the fortunes fluctuate but this counter managed to hold on and eked out a new recent
high thus achieving our target. With room for more upside we shall revisit a reentry at lower levels.
TATACOMM
Result season has seem some sterling moves from certain counters and this happens to be one amongst them.
The sharp rise beyond our target of 302 almost saw the prices reaching the final target of 308. One should look
to hold this counter with a stop trailed below 300.
HEXAWARE
IT sector is witnessing a sharp rebound however this counter is showing some hesita on. However with the bias
s ll undisturbed one should look to hold the counter with the stops as men oned below 130.