TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management

Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Areas Under any Normal Distribution

Theorem:

If X

~
:

X
N ( , ), then
~ N ( 0,1)

According to this theorem, if a random variable is normally distributed,

then a function of it, (X )/, has the standard normal distribution.

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

21

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Converting between Normal distributions

Start with
= 100
= 25
X = 125

0.0180

Center the
distribution over 0
by subtracting the
mean

0.0160
0.0140
0.0120
0.0100
0.0080
0.0060
0.018

0.0040

0.016

0.0020

0.014

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0.012
0.01
0.008

X !
!
125 !100
=
25
=1

z=

0.006
0.004
0 .4 5

0.002

0 .4 0

0
-100

0 .3 5

-75

-25

25

50

75

100

0 .2 5
0 .2 0
0 .15
0 .10
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
-4

Holly Ott

-50

0 .3 0

-3

-2

-1

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

Rescale the x and y

axes by dividing by
the standard
deviation
22

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Areas Under any Normal Distribution

A random variable X ~ N(2.0, 0.0025).
0.13
# X ! 2.0 1.87 ! 2.0 &
=
P
Z

= P(Z 2.6) = 0.0047

"
(a) P(X 1.87) = P %
(
0.05
$ 0.05
0.05 '

"
2.2 ! 2.0 %
' = P(Z > 4.0) = 0.0
(b) P(X > 2.2) = P $ Z >
0.05 &
#

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

23

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Areas Under any Normal Distribution

(c) Find P(1.9 X 2.1)

2.1 2.0
1.9 2.0
P (1.9 X 2.1) = P
Z

0.05
0.05

= 0.972 0.0228 = 0.9544

(d) Find t such that P(X t) = 0.05

#
t"2
t"2&
!
= "1.645 ! t = 1.918
P%Z !
=
0.05
(
$
0.05 '
0.05
Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

24

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Application of Normal Distribution

D is the diameter of bolts (inches), and, D ~ N(0.25, 0.012)
Bolt specs call for 0.24 0.02 inches.
What proportion of the bolts are outside specification?
We need:

P ( D < 0.22) + P ( D > 0.26 )

0.22 0.25
0.26 0.25

= P Z <
+ P Z >

0.01
0.01

= P( Z < 3) + P ( Z > 1)
= 0.00135 + 0.1587 = 0.16
i.e., 16% of the bolts are outside specification.

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

25

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Centering Improves a Process

b) If the process mean is moved to coincide with the center of spec,
what proportion will be defective?
When process mean coincides with spec center:
P(D < 0.22) + P(D > 0.26)
0.22 0.24
0.26 0.24

= P Z <
+ P Z >

0.01
0.01

= 2 0.0228 = 0.0456

i.e., 4.56% will be outside specification

Centering a process will improve process conditions; further
improvement has to come from reducing variability.
Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

26

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Reducing Variability
X is the random variable that denotes the life of batteries in years.
X ~ N(5, 0.25)
a) If any battery failing before 4 years is replaced under warranty
what proportion of batteries need replacement?

4 5

P ( X < 4 ) = P Z <
= P ( Z < 2.0 ) = 0.0228
0.5

i.e., 2.28% will have to be replaced during warranty.

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

27

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Reducing Variability
b) What should be the standard deviation if no more than 0.5% should
require replacement?
Let be the new standard deviation.
Find such that P(X<4) = 0.005

!
4 ! 5$
4(5
! P# Z <
=
0.005
'
= !2.575
&
!' %
!'
"
1
"! '=
= 0.3883
2.575
The standard deviation must be reduced from 0.5 to 0.39; i.e., a 23%
reduction in variability is needed.
Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

28

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Coming Up
Lecture 3.2: The Central Limit Theorem

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

29

TUM School of Management

Production and Supply Chain Management
Prof Martin Grunow

Technische Universitt Mnchen

Practice
Now let's do a practice problem to apply the
normal distribution.
Please complete the next "Practice" module
before continuing with Lecture 3.2.

Holly Ott

Quality Engineering & Management Module 3

30