INTERNAL ASSESSMENT

Unemployment rate vs Homicide Rate

IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE
HOMICIDE RATE?

CANDIDATE NAME: MATEUSZ GRECKI

CANDIDATE CODE:
CANDIDATE NUMBER:
SUBJECT: MATHEMATICS (STUDIES SL)
SESSION: MAY 2016
SCHOOL: STANISAW STASZIC HIGH SCHOOL NO.1 IN LUBLIN
TEACHERS NAME: JACEK WOKO

INTRODUCTION
The Homicide Rate and Unemployment rate is a subject of a heated debate in the media. One
side of the argument claims, that the people without employment are vulnerable to crimes and
that there is a relation between Homicide and Unemployment rate. On the contrary, it is said
that there is no correlation between these two. Recently, I watched the news, where the man
without Job killed the cashier, who did not want to give him the money. Because of this event,
many people started to claim that people without employment tend to commit crimes. I came
across the idea, to check it practically in my exploration. That is why, in this investigation, I
want to show, if there is a relationship between the Unemployment rate and the Homicide
rate. I will perform the following steps:
1. Collect data from a website.
2. Show the two variables in a table.
3. Draw the scatter diagram using Excel programme to see if there is a relation between two
variables. I will analyse if the relationship is seen by eye on the above diagram.
4. Calculate the Persons correlation coefficient using the formula and the Excel Programme
to verify linear correlation between the variables.
5. Calculate the Persons correlation coefficient using the GDC calculator to support previous
results.
6. If applicable, calculate line of best fit using both the formula and the technology.
7. Confirm the dependency of variables using
8. Conclude and validate.

test.

9. Suggest what can be cone to improve the project design.

DATA COLLECTION
The raw data collected by me shows the percentage of unemployment and the percentage of
the homicide in random selected countries. To ensure diversity and fairness of results, the
variety of countries from Africa, America, Europe, Asia and Oceania would be included
during the sampling.
Unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force,
where the latter consists of the unemployed plus those in paid or self-employment.
Unemployed people are those who report that they are without work, that they are available
for work and that they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks. When
unemployment is high, some people become discouraged and stop looking for work; they are
then excluded from the labour force. This implies that the unemployment rate may fall, or
stop rising, even though there has been no underlying improvement in the labour market. The
unemployment rate is an important indicator of economic and social well-being1.
Intentional homicide is defined as unlawful death inflicted upon a person with the intent to
cause death or serious injury2.
The percentage of the Unemployment rate3 and the Homicide rate4 in 2012 in the chosen
countries are presented in the Table 1.
1 Unemployment rate, OECD, accessed December 14, 2015,
https://data.oecd.org/unemp/unemployment-rate.htm.

2 Intentional homicide, counts and rates per 100,000 population, UNODC, accessed
December 14, 2015, https://data.unodc.org/sys/rpt?reportfile=crime-statistics-homicidecountdata&REGION=__ALL&REGION__label=All&SUBREGION=__ALL&SUBREGION__label=All&C
OUNTRY=__ALL&COUNTRY__label=All+
%28219%29&format=html&fullscreen=true&showtoc=true#state:0.

I obtained the data from the UNODC website and International Labour Organization website.

Table 1. Table shows the percentage of the Unemployment rate and the Homicide rate in
these countries in 2012.
Country

Unemployment Rate
(%)

China
Qatar
Bhutan
Norway
United Arab
Emirates
Nepal
Liberia
India
Cuba
Solomon
Islands
Estonia
Moldova
North Korea
Argentina
Kenya
Lithuania
Barbados
Kazakhstan
Uruguay
Iraq
Burundi
Philippines
Russia
Peru
Paraguay
Comoros
Togo
Zambia
Sudan

Homicide rate (%)

( y)

(x)
4,5
0,5
2,1
3,2
4,0

1,0
1,1
1,7
2,2
2,6

2,7
3,7
3,6
3,2
3,9

2,9
3,2
3,5
4,2
4,3

10,1
5,6
4,7
7,2
9,2
13,2
11,6
5,3
6,5
15,1
8,6
7,3
5,5
3,6
4,9
7,9
8,5
13,1
15,3

5,0
5,0
5,2
5,5
6,4
6,7
7,4
7,8
7,9
8,0
8,0
8,8
9,0
9,6
9,7
10,0
10,3
10,7
11,2

3 Unemployment rate per country (%), ILO, accessed December 14, 2015,
http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/multimedia/maps-and-charts/WCMS_233936/lang-en/index.htm.

4 Intentional homicide, counts and rates per 100,000 population.

Nicaragua
Ethiopia
Turkmenistan
Guyana
Namibia
Botswana
Dominican
Republic
Swaziland

7,8
5,4
10,9
11,3
16,7
17,7
15,0

11,3
12,0
12,8
17,0
17,2
18,4
22,1

22,6

33,8

As seen in the above table I assigned variable

y

to be the Unemployment rate and

to the Homicide rate.

CALCULATIONS

The first step that was carried out was calculating the mean, which is the sum of all entries
divided by the number of them, so:

x=

4.5+0.5+ 2.1+3.2+ 4.0+... 302

=
=8,162
37
37

y=

1.0+1.1+1.7+2.2+2.6+ ... 323.5

=
=8,743
37
37

Then I stated the median, which is the middle score. To find the median of Unemployment
rate and Homicide rate I organised both Unemployment rate and Homicide rate of 37
countries from the smallest to the biggest one.
37
=18.5
2

So the 19th score for Unemployment rate is 6.5% and for Homicide rate is 7.9%. Therefore,
median of the Unemployment rate ( x) is 6.5% and the Homicide rate ( y ) is 7.9%

If the median is smaller than the mean, it means that there are lot of countries with the
Homicide rate and Unemployment rate smaller than the mean. However, there are few
countries with a significantly higher Homicide rate and Unemployment rate. That is why the
mean is higher than mode.
Then I stated the mode the most common score, so mode of
y

is 3.6 and the mode of

is 5.0 and 8.0.

Using Excel programme, I draw the scatter plot of the percentage of unemployment rate and
the percentage of homicide rate. This will enable me to see if there is any trend between the
two variables.
I will use the unemployment rate (in %) as independent variable and it will appear on
the horizontal axis whereas homicide rate (in %) will be the dependent variable and will
appear on the vertical axis.

Unemployment rate and Homicide rate

Graph 1. Graph shows the scatter plot showing the unemployment rate (%) and
homicide rate (%).
I can see, that there is some positive relation. In the next step, I will try to find the line of best
fit to illustrate the relation between the two variables. But before starting the drawing and
calculating the equation of the line of best fit, I will calculate Pearsons correlation coefficient
using the formula in Excel programme and with usage of GDC calculator, to confirm the
results.
In order to calculate Pearsons correlation coefficient r

Unemployment rate (%), variable

I assigned variable

x to be

to be Homicide rate (%) and variable n to be the

total number of the countries.

I will use the following formula to calculate Pearsons correlation coefficient:

r=

n ( xy ) ( x )( y )

[n x ( x) ][n y ( y ) ]
2

Using Excel programme, I created table in order to calculate the remaining entries needed in
the Pearsons correlation coefficient formula (Table 2).
Table 2. Table showing the Unemployment rate (%) and Homicide rate (%) represented
respectively as x and y, and the remaining entries needed in the Pearsons correlation
coefficient formula.
Country

Unemployment rate

Homicide rate

(%) ( x )

(%) ( y )

x y

China
Qatar
Bhutan
Norway
United Arab
Emirates
Nepal
Liberia
India
Cuba
Solomon
Islands
Estonia
Moldova
North Korea
Argentina
Kenya
Lithuania
Barbados
Kazakhstan
Uruguay
Iraq
Burundi
Philippines
Russia
Peru
Paraguay
Comoros
Togo
Zambia
Sudan
Nicaragua
Ethiopia
Turkmenistan
Guyana
Namibia
Botswana
Dominican
Republic
Swaziland

4.5
0.5
2.1
3.2
4.0

1.0
1.1
1.7
2.2
2.6

4.5
0.6
3.6
7.0
10.4

20.3
0.3
4.4
10.2
16.0

1.0
1.2
2.9
4.8
6.8

2.7
3.7
3.6
3.2
3.9

2.9
3.2
3.5
4.2
4.3

7.8
11.8
12.6
13.4
16.8

7.3
13.7
13.0
10.2
15.2

8.4
10.2
12.3
17.6
18.5

10.1
5.6
4.7
7.2
9.2
13.2
11.6
5.3
6.5
15.1
8.6
7.3
5.5
3.6
4.9
7.9
8.5
13.1
15.3
7.8
5.4
10.9
11.3
16.7
17.7
15.0

5.0
5.0
5.2
5.5
6.4
6.7
7.4
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.0
8.8
9.0
9.6
9.7
10.0
10.3
10.7
11.2
11.3
12.0
12.8
17.0
17.2
18.4
22.1

50.5
28.0
24.4
39.6
58.9
88.4
85.8
41.3
51.4
120.8
68.8
64.2
49.5
34.6
47.5
79.0
87.6
140.2
171.4
88.1
64.8
139.5
192.1
287.2
325.7
331.5

102.0
31.4
22.1
51.8
84.6
174.2
134.6
28.1
42.3
228.0
74.0
53.3
30.3
13.0
24.0
62.4
72.3
171.6
234.1
60.8
29.2
118.8
127.7
278.9
313.3
225.0

25.0
25.0
27.0
30.3
41.0
44.9
54.8
60.8
62.4
64.0
64.0
77.4
81.0
92.2
94.1
100.0
106.1
114.5
125.4
127.7
144.0
163.8
289.0
295.8
338.6
488.4

22.6

33.8

763.9

510.8

1142.4

x=302.0

n=37

y =323,5

xy=3613.3
x =3408.9
y 2=4363,4

Then I substituted the values in the formula and calculated the Pearsons correlation
coefficient:

r=

37 ( 3613.3 ) ( 302 )( 323.5 )

[ 37 ( 3408.9 )(302.0) ] [ 37(4363.4)( 323.5 ) ]

2

=0.808

Calculation of Pearsons correlation coefficient.

The r

is equal to 0.808 so there is strong positive linear relation between Homicide rate

(%) and Unemployment rate (%).

I will confirm my calculations using GDC calculator to confirm the results. The following
steps have to be carried out:
1. On the home screen press Add Lists & Spreadsheet to: New Document.

2. Name A list: hr (Homicide rate) and B list: ur (Unemployment Rate).

3. Type the Homicide rate points on list A and Unemployment rate points on list B.

4. Press menu Statistics Stat Calculations

5. Press Linear Regression (a+bx),,,

6. Read the result of r

- Pearsons Correlation Coefficient.

And therefore the result obtained from the GDC is r=0.808217 .

The GDC calculations of r

are nearly the same as my results using the formula therefore it

is justified to move on and find the line of best fit.

Now I will try to find the equation of the line of best fit using the following formula:
y=a+bx

Where a and b are determined by:

a= yb x

x 2 n
b=

xy 1n ( x )( y)

I substituted values from my previous calculations of mean, and also from the Table 2, so:
a=8.7431.03063 8.162=0.330998

1
( 302 ) (323.5)
37
=1.03063
1
2
3408.9 (302)
37

3613.3
b=

So

y=0.330998+1.03063 x (Equation #1)

Now I will confirm the results by finding the equation of the line of best fit using Excel
Programme and drawing the graph.

Unemployment rate and Homicide

f(x) = 1.03x + 0.33

R = 0.65

As seen on the above diagram, the line of best fit from Excel is

y=1.0306+ 0.3311 which

is very close to the calculations I did myself using the formula (Equation #1).
As seen on the scatter diagram, there is positive relation between Unemployment Rate and
Homicide rate which was confirmed by the value of the Pearsons correlation coefficient. The
gradient of the line of best fit is positive (1.03) therefore it can be concluded that with the
growth of unemployment rate the homicide rate rises as well.
This line shows us the general trend of analysed data. Just as we said before, the relationship
is noticeable increasing, and as r
not perfect.

suggests, it is a strong positive linear relation, but it is

Another way to check the dependency will be the use of

null hypothesis and

H1

test. 2 hypotheses:

H0

alternative hypothesis will be stated:

H 0 : Homicide rateis independent on Unemployment rate

H 1 : Homicide rate is dependent onUnemployment rate

I divided Homicide rate and Unemployment rate into intervals of length of one Standard
Deviation. Standard Deviation of Unemployment rate ( x ) and Homicide rate ( y ) were
calculated using GDC calculator:
Standard Deviation for

x : x =5.05

Standard Deviation for

y : y =6.44

The last interval for both unemployment rate and Homicide rate was extended to the
maximum value needed in order to avoid short interval (having very low frequency).

Unemployment rate (%)

Table 3. Table shows the observed values while calculating

0-5.05
5.06-10.11
10.12-15.17
15.18-20.6

0-6.44
11
4
0
0

Homicide rate (%)

6.45-12.89
2
9
5
1

2 test.

12.90-19.34
0
0
1
2

19.35-33.8
0
0
1
1

In order to calculate the degrees of freedom I used the following formula:

df =( r1 ) (c 1)

Therefore, for us:

df =( 41 ) ( 41 )=9

Table 4. Table shows the expected values obtained from GDC calculator while

Unemployment rate (%)

calculating

2 test.

0-5.05
5.06-10.11
10.12-15.17
15.18-20.6

0-6.44
5.27
5.27
2.84
1.62

Homicide rate (%)

6.45-12.89
5.97
5.97
3.22
1.84

12.90-19.34
1.05
1.05
0.568
0.324

19.35-33.8
0.703
0.703
0.378
0.216

The P Value obtained from GDC calculator is 0.000139, so it is below 0.05. Therefore, we

reject

H0

- the null hypothesis. And we accept

H1

- the alternative hypothesis. It

means, that the Homicide rate is dependent on Unemployment rate.

Because there are many rows in which the frequency is below 5 or even 0, the result is not
very reliable. I tried to find a different method that would account for the cells being less than
5. I found the method called Yates correction. The formula that I will use is:

k
2

Yates=

(|f 0f e|0.5)
fe

Using Excel programme, I created table in order to calculate the remaining entries needed in
the Yates correction formula. (Table 5).
Table 5. Table showing the remaining entries needed in the Yates correction formula.
Observed
values

Expected

(f 0)
values

(from
Table 3)

11
2
0
0
4
9
0
0
0
5
1
1
0
1
2
1

f 0f e

|f 0f e|

|f 0f e|0.5

(|f 0f e|0.5 )

(from Table
4)
5,27
5,97
1,05
0,703
5,27
5,97
1,05
0,703
2,84
3,22
0,568
0,378
1,62
1,84
0,324
0,216

5,73
-3,97
-1,05
-0,703
-1,27
3,03
-1,05
-0,703
-2,84
1,78
0,432
0,622
-1,62
-0,84
1,676
0,784

5,73
3,97
1,05
0,703
1,27
3,03
1,05
0,703
2,84
1,78
0,432
0,622
1,62
0,84
1,676
0,784

5,23
3,47
0,55
0,203
0,77
2,53
0,55
0,203
2,34
1,28
-0,068
0,122
1,12
0,34
1,176
0,284

27,3529
12,0409
0,3025
0,041209
0,5929
6,4009
0,3025
0,041209
5,4756
1,6384
0,004624
0,014884
1,2544
0,1156
1,382976
0,080656

f
f
(| 0 e|0.5 ) 2

5,190304
2,016901
0,288095
0,058619
0,112505
1,072178
0,288095
0,058619
1,928028
0,50882
0,008141
0,039376
0,774321
0,062826
4,268444
0,373407

Validity
I first draw the scatter plot to see the relation between the two variables. The scatter plot
clearly showed a positive linear relation between the two variables. The value of the Pearsons
correlation coefficient r

confirmed that there is a strong positive linear correlation between

Homicide rate and Unemployment rate. The value of r

calculated using the formula was

confirmed with the usage of GDC calculator. It was nearly the same. Therefore, it means, that
the results are reliable. Then the line of best fit, both using the formula and technology was
calculated. The slope 1.03063 confirmed the relationship, too.

test and Yates

correction demonstrated that Homicide rate and Unemployment rate are dependent on each
other. Therefore, the tests that I carried out provide a strong support that there is a correlation
between Homicide rate and Unemployment rate.
Areas of improvement
To be more sure if the two variables are dependent on each other, few things could be
improved. More countries could be collected in the data (e.g. 50 or 60). The bigger variety of
countries could be given. A relationship between countries from one continent could be
evaluated (e.g. Europa, or Africa). Also, the relationship between these two variables could be

shown in only one country over many years. The another relationship than linear could be
looked for (e.g. quadratic regression, cubic regression or others).