TABLE A.13.

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

136

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.13 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

137

TABLE A.14. UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Scenario

Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Grand total 1995-2050

40
40
40
40
40
40
0
0
0
0
0
1 200

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
12
59
100
119
121
116

0
0
0
188
177
241
280
178
47
29
110

0
0
0
0
0
263
1 373
952
147
0
0

11
62
563
1 529
1 163
1 421
1 765
1 365
759
1 079
2 239

2 634

6 247

13 674

59 775

58 308
58 600
58 694
58 685
59 724
60 860
62 248
63 690
64 456
64 417
64 197
64 354

58 308
58 600
58 694
58 685
58 734
58 833
60 160
67 253
72 598
73 907
74 243
74 398

58 308
58 655
59 078
62 066
70 503
77 858
86 856
97 931
107 299
113 699
121 756
136 138

37 811
38 207
38 739
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873
38 873

37 811
38 207
38 739
38 873
38 180
37 468
37 437
41 359
44 429
45 292
45 860
46 266

37 811
38 246
39 009
41 244
46 397
50 665
55 979
62 859
69 084
73 616
79 089
88 239

4.09
4.09
4.06
3.90
3.50
3.23
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.05
3.06

4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09
4.09

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

58 308
58 830
59 143
59 331
59 566
59 845
59 961
59 619
59 029
58 289
57 488
56 667

58 308
58 600
58 694
58 685
58 734
58 833
58 768
58 449
57 883
57 168
56 393
55 594

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

37 811
38 328
38 981
39 237
38 661
38 062
37 166
35 914
34 938
34 418
34 009
33 406

37 811
38 207
38 739
38 873
38 180
37 468
36 465
35 230
34 266
33 750
33 343
32 745

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.09
4.06
4.03
3.86
3.47
3.21
2.92
2.61
2.41
2.37
2.38
2.37

58 308
58 600
58 694
58 685
58 734
58 833
58 833
58 833
58 833
58 833
58 833
58 833

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

37 811
38 207
38 739
38 873
38 180
37 468
36 510
35 497
34 924
34 902
35 037
35 009

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

138

4.09
4.08
4.06
3.90
3.50
3.23
2.93
2.62
2.41
2.36
2.37
2.36

4.09
4.08
4.06
3.90
3.50
3.23
2.94
2.63
2.45
2.43
2.47
2.49

4.09
4.08
4.06
3.90
3.55
3.33
3.09
2.84
2.68
2.64
2.66
2.64

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.14 (continued)

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Scenario

Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

9 256
9 433
9 675
10 162
11 140
11 859
12 724
13 757
14 478
14 545
14 291
14 107

9 256
9 360
9 535
9 976
10 916
11 604
12 431
13 467
14 197
14 280
14 047
13 881

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

15.9
16.0
16.4
17.1
18.7
19.8
21.2
23.1
24.5
25.0
24.9
24.9

15.9
16.0
16.2
17.0
18.6
19.7
21.2
23.0
24.5
25.0
24.9
25.0

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

11 241
11 069
10 488
9 933
9 765
9 924
10 071
9 949
9 613
9 326
9 188
9 153

11 241
11 033
10 420
9 836
9 637
9 761
9 872
9 751
9 421
9 138
9 003
8 968

9 256
9 360
9 535
9 976
10 916
11 604
12 433
13 481
14 234
14 351
14 161
14 048

9 256
9 360
9 535
9 976
10 951
11 684
12 578
13 705
14 530
14 717
14 635
14 722

9 256
9 360
9 535
9 976
10 916
11 604
12 479
13 786
14 810
15 097
15 046
15 122

9 256
9 362
9 549
10 096
11 357
12 402
13 703
15 387
16 911
18 020
19 360
21 600

15.9
16.0
16.2
17.0
18.3
19.2
20.2
21.5
22.5
22.8
22.8
22.9

15.9
16.0
16.2
17.0
18.6
19.7
20.7
20.5
20.4
20.4
20.3
20.3

15.9
16.0
16.2
16.3
16.1
15.9
15.8
15.7
15.8
15.8
15.9
15.9

11 241
11 033
10 420
9 836
9 900
10 303
10 796
11 111
11 053
10 827
10 689
10 759

11 241
11 033
10 420
9 836
9 637
9 761
10 245
12 108
13 359
13 518
13 336
13 010

11 241
11 048
10 521
10 726
12 749
14 791
17 174
19 686
21 304
22 063
23 307
26 299

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

15.9
16.0
16.2
17.0
18.6
19.7
21.1
22.9
24.2
24.4
24.1
23.9

G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)

11 241
11 033
10 420
9 836
9 637
9 761
9 890
9 854
9 675
9 580
9 635
9 775

H. Potential support ratio in 2050 by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

2.37
3.38
4.97
7.99

2.36
3.37
4.95
7.97

2.49
3.55
5.21
8.38

2.64
3.80
5.61
9.02

3.06
4.34
6.34
10.16

4.09
6.17
9.57
15.92

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

139