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About Manpower 21
1
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Among U.S. employers polled, 23% anticipate an Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
increase in hiring activity for the first quarter of 2006, Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage
while 10% expect to decrease staff levels. Sixty-one of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity
percent of employers surveyed foresee no change in and subtracting from this the percentage of employers
hiring plans, while 6% are unsure of their staffing needs. that expect to see a decrease in employment at their
location in the next quarter.
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
2
According to seasonally adjusted survey data, employers Year-over-year comparisons show that employers in
in six out of 10 industry sectors surveyed foresee half of the industry sectors surveyed are less confident
minimal changes in hiring activity as they transition into about hiring at the start of 2006 versus a year ago.
2006. Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, A decline in hiring expectations is reported in the
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Mining, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Education and Public Administration employers expect Transportation/Public Utilities and Finance/Insurance/Real
the hiring pace to be about the same as it was during Estate industry sectors while those in the Wholesale/Retail
the fourth quarter of 2005. Trade and Services sectors are expected to hold
steady. The hiring outlook is brighter in several areas,
Construction employers report their most optimistic job
particularly in the Construction sector. Education and
forecast in 27 years, while the hiring pace is likely to
Public Administration employers also expect stronger
soften from the fourth quarter in the Transportation/Public
hiring activity when compared with a year ago.
Utilities and Services sectors. A more visible slowdown
is expected in the Mining sector, where hiring managers
report a moderate slide in employment plans.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
Among the U.S. regions, stronger hiring patterns are in hiring for the coming quarter than they were in early
store for the South and the West when compared with 2005. Conversely, employers in the Midwest foresee
fourth quarter projections. Little change is anticipated in slightly less employment activity for the coming quarter.
the Midwest, while employers in the Northeast foresee
Overall, employers in the West report the most positive
a noticeable slowdown in the hiring pace.
employment outlook for the January to March period,
The employment outlook in the Northeast and the while employers in the Northeast issued the weakest
South is relatively unchanged from a year ago. hiring expectations.
Employers in the West are slightly more optimistic about
3
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Regional Comparisons
Midwest
In the Midwest, 19% of employers surveyed foresee an Education sectors. Mining, Wholesale/Retail Trade
increase in hiring for the first quarter of 2006, while and Public Administration employers report good news
11% plan to reduce staff levels. The result is a Net – a slight increase in the hiring pace compared with
Employment Outlook of 8%. When seasonal factors fourth quarter.
are removed from the data, the survey shows that
Year-over-year comparisons show a decline in
employers expect the hiring pace to remain consistent
employer confidence in half of the industry sectors
with the fourth quarter and to slow down slightly
surveyed – Mining, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services,
compared with a year ago.
Durable Goods Manufacturing and Finance/Insurance/Real
Employers in four out of the 10 industry sectors surveyed Estate. The job market is expected to remain relatively
suggest that hiring activity in the new year will be about unchanged in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
the same as it was at the close of 2005. That is the and Education sectors. Transportation/Public Utilities,
case for the Construction, Transportation/Public Public Administration and Construction employers are
Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services more upbeat about hiring than they were a year ago
sectors. The employment outlook is a bit weaker in the at this time.
Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, and
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,
South Dakota, Wisconsin.
4
Northeast
Among employers surveyed in the Northeast, 22% Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration sectors.
anticipate an increase in payrolls for the beginning months Hiring in Education is expected to remain unchanged,
of 2006 and 12% expect to reduce employment levels. while the hiring pace is likely to accelerate in the Durable
This yields a Net Employment Outlook of 10%. The Goods Manufacturing and Construction sectors.
seasonally adjusted data show that, among the four
When compared with the beginning months of 2005,
U.S. regions, employers in the Northeast are least
the hiring pace is expected to decline in half of the
optimistic about hiring in the new year. The results
industry sectors surveyed. Those sectors are Mining,
suggest a decline in hiring activity compared with fourth
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Non-Durable Goods
quarter, and a jobs picture that is likely to be about the
Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and
same as it was last year at this time.
Services. Little change in hiring activity is predicted
Compared with fourth quarter, job seekers are likely to for the Transportation/Public Utilities and Education
have a more challenging search in the Mining, sectors. On the bright side, the hiring pace is likely to
Wholesale/Retail Trade, Services, Transportation/Public pick up in the Public Administration, Durable Goods
Utilities, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Finance/ Manufacturing and Construction sectors.
30
25
20
15
10
-5
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
South
Twenty-six percent of employers in the South are likely The most noticeable changes in employer optimism
to increase staff levels, while 8% expect to trim payrolls can be found in the Education sector, where there is a
in the January – March period, resulting in a Net moderate drop in confidence about hiring gains, and
Employment Outlook of 18%. On a seasonally adjusted among Wholesale/Retail Trade employers, who anticipate
basis, employers anticipate a slight improvement in the a respectable increase in employment activity.
hiring pace over fourth quarter and little change from
The employment outlook is more positive than it was
a year ago.
a year ago in half of the industry sectors including
Quarter-over-quarter comparisons also reflect the relative Mining, Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing,
stability of the job market in the South. Mining, Durable Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education. The hiring pace
Goods Manufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate is likely to be about the same as it was at the start
and Services employers report hiring intentions that are of 2005 in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
about the same as fourth quarter. A mild slow-down in Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real
hiring activity is predicted by Public Administration and Estate and Services. Public Administration employers
Transportation/Public Utilities employers, while those in are the only group to report decreased hiring
the Construction and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing confidence compared with a year ago.
sectors foresee a slight uptick in the hiring pace.
30
25
20
15
10
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
6
West
In the West, 29% of employers plan to add staff, while outlook is weaker among Mining, Non-Durable Goods
9% expect personnel reductions. This creates a Net Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Employment Outlook of 20%. When seasonal variations Education employers.
are removed from the data, it reveals the strongest
The hiring pace in the Construction, Public Administration,
employment outlook among the four regions, a designation
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services sectors is expected
the West held in the fourth quarter as well. Hiring
to be up over last year at this time. Education and
projections are up from fourth quarter and a year ago.
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing employers foresee
Compared with fourth quarter, hiring activity is likely to be little change in hiring levels. Employers with less optimistic
stronger in the Construction, Wholesale/Retail Trade, hiring plans for the new year include those in the Mining,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public
Administration sectors. Durable Goods Manufacturers Utilities and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sectors.
foresee no change in the hiring pace. The employment
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,
Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
7
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Sector Comparisons
Some variation in first quarter hiring plans is revealed Estate, Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
among the 10 industry sectors on a seasonally adjusted Services, Mining, Transportation/Public Utilities and
basis. Construction employers anticipate the most Wholesale/Retail Trade. Education and Public
promising hiring intentions moving into the new year. Administration employers are more reserved about
A solid hiring pace is expected in Finance/Insurance/Real job prospects for the January – March period.
Construction 13
29
Education 13
14
20
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
20
17
Manufacturing – Durables
21
15
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
18
16
Mining 21
12
Public Administration 15
17
Services 21
15
Transpor tation & Public Utilities 17
5
Wholesale & Retail Trade 21
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
8
Construction
Seasonally adjusted results show that Construction For the first quarter, hiring expectations in the
employers report the strongest employment outlook Construction sector are strongest in the West and
among the 10 industry sectors surveyed. In fact, weakest in the Midwest.
employer optimism is at one of its highest points in
the last three decades, according to survey historical
data. Hiring intentions are improved from fourth quarter
and a year ago.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-20
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Education
Education employers expect job market stability, Hiring intentions among Education employers are
according to the seasonally adjusted survey results. most optimistic in the West and least promising in
Employers anticipate no change in the hiring pace from the Midwest.
fourth quarter, while a year-over-year comparison suggests
slightly more robust employment activity than in the
early months of 2005. Although the report for the
sector is positive, Education employers do have the
weakest hiring plans among the industries surveyed.
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
25
20
15
10
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
10
Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
According to seasonally adjusted data, Non-Durable There is little variation in the Non-Durable Goods
Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady pace Manufacturing employment outlook across the regions.
during the first quarter. The employment outlook is Employers in the West are most optimistic about hiring
in-line with results from the last three quarters, and down by a small margin, while those in the Northeast are a bit
slightly from a year ago. more reserved.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
Mining
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers In the Mining sector, hiring is expected to be most
exhibit a notable decline in hiring plans for the January active in the South, while a much more dismal jobs
– March period. A moderate drop in hiring activity is picture is predicted for the Northeast.
expected over fourth quarter and last year at this time.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
11
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Public Administration
The new year brings continued stability for the Public Employers in the West are most confident about adding
Administration sector, according to the seasonally adjusted staff, while those in the Northeast anticipate slower hiring
data. Employers foresee little change in the hiring pace over than in the other three regions.
fourth quarter, and a mild improvement from last year.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
Services
Confidence among Services employers takes a slight Employers in the West are most likely to welcome job
tumble during the first quarter, according to seasonally seekers, while those in the Northeast report markedly
adjusted survey data. The hiring pace is likely to slow less optimistic hiring plans.
down slightly when compared with the fourth quarter,
however, it is identical to expectations from a year ago.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
12
Transportation & Public Utilities
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Hiring plans are most promising in the Midwest, while
Transportation/Public Utilities employers show a the least amount of employment activity is expected in
measured decrease in confidence regarding employment the West.
prospects for the first quarter. Compared with fourth
quarter and a year ago, moderately weaker job prospects
are expected.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-5
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
-15
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Canada Mexico
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
USA
50
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Australia China
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
16
Japan New Zealand
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Singapore Taiwan
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
France Germany
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
18
Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Spain Sweden
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Switzerland UK
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005. Line shows seasonally adjusted data.
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the
45,000 public and private employers across 23 countries and United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across same forward-looking research format as the United States
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Methodology
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
advancements in the field of market research.
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
standards in market research. The research team for the 23
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
Research and Analysis Division of Right Management
Consultants – an independent operating division of Manpower 2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18
structured to be representative of each national economy. The countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria,
margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,
greater than +/- 4.0%. Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%. 2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the
same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your
location to change in the three months to the end of March 2006
as compared to the current quarter?”
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About Manpower Inc. About Manpower USA
Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of
services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial
meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle. and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower
The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition; on assignment in areas such as information technology,
organizational consulting services and professional financial scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More
services. Manpower’s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in information about Manpower’s US operation can be found at
72 countries and territories enables the company to meet the www.us.manpower.com.
needs of its 400,000 customers per year, including small and
medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the
world’s largest multinational corporations. The focus of
Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved
quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to
concentrate on their core business activities. In addition to the
Manpower brand, the company operates under the brand names
of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells and Elan.
More information on Manpower Inc. is available at
www.manpower.com.
21
1st Quarter 2005