The Port that Changed

Everything
The Chabahar Port
Actually, it is just the tip of the iceberg. This is the start of an inevitable
new cold war. Real war is not fought with weapons. It is fought
financially with diplomacy as its weapon. It is not the wars that actually
kill people, it is the fear of war that does killing them every day, slowly.
We always need a cold war to be there to make sure real wars do not
happen. We already witnessed it between Russia and the US in the pastfrom the 1950s till 1990s; that the cold war kept mankind guessing its
fate. But its just eyewash. Cold wars are just to make smaller countries
fear war so that they keep quiet and keep a peace. Not a direct threat for
the players of the war as they are matured enough. They will not waste
weapons when they can use financial dominance and control. This is all
about winning the war without a fight and controlling people without
letting they know about it. That is exactly what 2500 years back Sun Tsu
and Chanakya taught us both. And this Chabahar Port is that start of the
new cold war -a cold war between China and India which will perhaps
last till 2050s.

This cold war is

not a new concept as I told before. But there are some minor changes in
the strategy in this new upcoming cold war between China and India
from the previous cold war and the tactics are completely new although
the core concept of using various socio-cultural and the geopolitical
differences and also the macroeconomic factors to ones advantage

remains the same. The world may look at it as Dragon versus Lion and
what not but the difference is that in this war space and nuclear bombs
will not be the only weapons. It will be outdoing each other in
manufacturing and in the race to trade supremacy. These 2 nations being
the oldest living civilizations had lived for over 8000 years side by side
without going for any major fight or war with each other. Rather the
religion of Buddhism that was born in India based on absolute nonviolence and equality for all mankind was embraced and embossed by
China rather than India. But we are not here to discuss any China-India
related aspect. In this article, we stick to Chabahar and everything that is
at stake because of a port.
There is one thing Pakistan has to accept. There was not, is not, and will
not be any competition for anything between India and Pakistan except
for some sports. Indias competition is China. Rather, Pakistan should
have known long back that their competition is Iran and not India.
India and China from every angle and every point of view is capable
enough to carry on the battle of business in their own level. Truth is; Iran
has the capability to compete with Pakistan in every aspect be it
education, science, technology, defense, and the core and fundamental
intra-religious differences. Iran is not an Arab nation which is only oil
dependent and society is uneducated and foreign dependent for all sort
of development. Rather, they are the decedents of the 7000-year-old
Mesopotamian civilization and the Indo-Persian human race. So the
truth is the big cold war will also carry a small cold war as its baby,
and that is between Iran and Pakistan. Chabahar is the very small and
first step towards that. But in this article let us just only stick to what
advantages Afghanistan will have from Chabahar port.
First and foremost, Afghanistan is not just a tool in this so-called Great
Game and Game Changer or whatever fancy name is given to this
strategy. Rather Afghanistan is not even a part of any sort of rivalry or
competition between these 2 major and 2 minor players of their
upcoming cold war. This concept must be very clear in the first step. A
lot of people are talking about China-Pakistan versus India-IranAfghanistan and all. But the truth is that this is the wrong concept and
such a notion will harm Afghanistans growth and development as well
as its peace building. Afghanistan is a growing nation; it needs to rebuild
everything that was lost in those 30 years and in no position to be a part

of any cold war. Rather Chabahar Port is the gift to Afghanistan from
India for its economic growth.
Afghanistan becomes the only landlocked country in the world to have its
own sea port. That itself is a big deal. Perhaps the biggest hurdle of
Afghanistan is now overcome. Afghanistan no more have to depend on
Pakistan for its export and import issues for most products it needs.
Pakistan has been a big partner all right but was a bulling and controlling
partner of Afghanistan. Whenever there was a thing that they did not like
from Afghanistans side they used to seal their borders as punishment so
that people in Afghanistan suffer. They used this tool to make sure the
Government of Afghanistan gets pressurized to alter their decisions as
citizens were suffering and do exactly as Pakistan wants. In this way,
Pakistan tried to control Afghanistans foreign and home policies both;
even after the fall of Taliban. It is well understood that they always
wanted to keep Afghanistan as their pet slave nation.
Financially strong, socially stable, economically prosperous, and
culturally independent Afghanistan is the last thing Pakistan wants. They
have been using Afghanistan as a breeding, nurturing, training, and
developing ground for terrorism since ages; and wanted to keep it that
way. But as things have changed it makes Pakistan angry. They have
been playing the Muslim brotherhood card far too long and far too often.
They thought they can continue with it. But the real opium for mankind
is not the opium production but socio-economic development along with
stability and peace. Afghans got the flavor of that opium. Now they will
not want to go back to their previous state. This is what Pakistan has
come to understand and their anger start from there. That Jihad is no
more the staple food here. Pakistan also thought they will be able to use
the Pashtoons of both sides of the border for their sole purposes. They
thought as 70 years back Baccha Khan had failed in the hands of Jinnah
in the name of religion, even now they can carry on their game. But
everything has changed in the last 14 years. Even after Ghani came to
power they started to think they will regain ground as initially Ghani was
giving them opportunity to fix the relationship. But they mistook it as
weakness again, and faltered.

Pakistans first nightmare

was Modi coming to power. They tried to defame him but now it is out
of their control. Secondly they never ever thought Modi would be so
interested in Afghanistans growth and development. They had thought
Modi will be more interested in doing tie-up with more socially open and
culturally liberal Islamic nations and not with conservative ones. Thirdly
they still are in big doubt how USA could lift their sanctions and ban on
Iran. This was a massive blow to them for every past plan they had made.
Fourthly, they thought at least UAE and Saudi Arabia will be with them
for whatever they do as it was before. But now even that has changed
fully. UAEs King is making Hindu Temples as per Modis wish and
Saudis King is giving Modi their highest Civilian Award apart from all
other sorts of trade, business and joint developmental tie-ups. Fifth point
is they thought buying a few weapons from Russia and India getting
closer to USA will make them closer to Russia, but in that game also they
realized they have fallen back as Indias economy is too big for Russia to
ignore. Sixth point is they do not understand why and how suddenly
China which is the hands-of-the-world loses its manufacturing
attraction slowly but steadily to likes of India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico
as a whole.
China suddenly finding itself cornered in long term games understood
that Iran cannot be their ally. When there were economic impositions
and sanctions on Iran by the USA at that time China tried a lot to make
Iran an ally but found out that they are too skilled and advanced to
depend on China for anything; plus they have oil-power to go along with
it. Hence, Pakistan became their favorite choice by default. China
thought that they can make use of Pakistans failed state; and economic
instability to control and use them better as USA is losing interest in
Pakistan for others. Therefore they though Gwadar will be a good long
term investment which will be a win-win for both China and Pakistan.

Plus China is concerned about Indias Military presence in Arabian Sea,

and needed to hold a ground.
Chinas ambitious plan for overall economic development of Pakistan,
including Gwadar, took final shape after Xi Jinping visited Modi in India.
Jinping had thought that Modi is the businessman type of political figure
hence for further and bigger economic joint ventures between India and
China he will give up Indias claim for Tibet. But when that did not
happen, China understood Pakistan is their only way out. Economically
stabilize Pakistan so that their ISI, and state-funded extremist groups
can be well funded again to destabilize the region making it even tougher
to control for the US and its allies. China every year bans Ramadan and
all other Islamic festivals as its way to control Islamic extremism. Yet it
flirts with Pakistan in order to undermine India dual personality; Islam
phobic at home, but is making tactical Islamic alliances abroad. And now
these things are getting clear to every Afghan too.
But for India, it was a different ball game and completely different need.
India always had one of the best foreign policies of not taking sides much
and keeping relationship with everyone almost even if others were
against each other. India always bought oil from Iran and arms from
Israel keeping both closer. India suffered a lot when a plane was hijacked
and was taken to Kandahar airport. India had to release lots of terrorists
of Kashmir in return. India had kept quite during Russian attack as at
that time India was an ally of Russia and of course, Congress part was in
power and things were different. But after the fall of Taliban India has
been a part of nation building and is willing to help in whatever way
possible for a socio-economic development of Afghanistan. Even after
spending billions, it is to be noted, that India has not spent even a
million dollar for the development of non-Muslim Afghans as a separate
budget. Indias developmental budget was for everyone. Lots of Indians
died here due to attacks that were ISI and Pakistani Taliban funded but
still nothing stopped. And the show will go on.
Pakistan thought they will be able to spread terrorism inside India easily
by utilizing Indian Muslims. But time and again they failed. Now they
will try even harder than ever before after Chabahar gets fully
operational; because there is a chance of an estimated $ 2.1 billion loss
every year to Pakistan. Attacks on Indians working in Afghanistan will

also increase. Still Indian Government is trying its very level best to
develop Afghanistan and trying to make Afghanistan prosperous, selfdependent and its growth sustainable. Pakistan will also try to disrupt
the smooth flow of items from various cities here to the port and back.
When they will fail to do that they might beg China to disturb some ships
when they travel from the port. China might even play some cards up
their sleeves. To make sure the other land-locked countries do not come
to Iran and Afghanistan to use Chabahar they might let them use some
part of Gwadar for free. But then those are future speculations, and can
be tackled Inshallah. Pakistans biggest shock above the 6 points I
mentioned before is the person whom they wanted to project as the
international face of Hindu terrorism, Modi, has been able to unite the
Shia and Sunni at the international level by uniting Afghanistan and Iran
for Chabahar. Much more shockingly, Modi played a major role in
cooling down both Putin and Obama on the blame game they started on
ISIS.
Afghanistan has many fears. The biggest being over 2 million Afghan
citizens still living in Pakistan as refugees and their welfare might get
hampered if Afghan government fully tends towards India. Plus a lot
more issues like small and short-lived, but quite a few ethnic clashes may
creep up in few parts of Afghanistan; increased frequency and impact of
suicide blasts and other attacks on civilians to name a few; all funded,
instigated, trained and planned by Pakistan due to the naked border of
Thorkham. The good thing is as Chabahar port is in Iran any act of
terrorism from Irans border to the port will not happen. This is because
Iran does not waste time like India and other nations on giving terrorists
free and fair trail. Nor they allow human rights commission to act as the
second class terrorist group in their country. Plus international rules of
the sea will also protect the ships in most parts definitely.

China, Russia, Iran, and India

at least have 1 thing in common in regards to Afghanistan. None wants

extremism in the name of Islam to rise in their countries exported from

outside. They also know that if Pakistan gets a free hand they will again
try to use Afghans for the same purpose again. Therefore, all of them
would like Afghanistan to grow economically. Afghan Government needs
to learn how to channelize Salma Dams water properly now to easily
increase saffron production 20 times in 1 year. In that way, they can
control the global production of 1 item at least very easily. Plus dry fruit
and all sorts of fruit production along with other productions of
agricultural products can be increased very significantly including wheat,
rice, and beans. Chabahar port will be able to transport it everywhere.
Similarly, if the carpet industry can be revived and various other small
scale industries developed in a big scale like honey production and etc.
then there will be big development in the very near future.
India is making a railroad that will connect Chabahar to Haji Gak which
spans almost 1700 kilometers at a cost of $ 400 million. $ 100 million
more than the total cost of Chabahar port. 400 km of its work already
finished. In Haji Gak India is making $ 11 billion steel factory which will
employ 75,000. It will help Afghanistan be able to export iron and steel
all over the world. The $ 17 billion copper factory of Mes Ainak being
made by China can also utilize Chabahar as that will be a lot cheaper due
to railroad making transport a lot cheaper. And everything from Dubai
can come and go by within 5 hours as its very near. Plus, if at least 1
train is made for people to transfer via the railway line, apart from goods
train, then people can travel to Iran very cheap up to Chabahar and then
travel to Dubai by ship. This will make sure people can bring with them
lots of goods after they buy from Dubai with themselves at a far cheaper
cost, than bringing them via cargo planes. Moreover, any joint
businesses between Afghan and Iranian businessmen will also become
easy and they can jointly export their products at very cheap cost by ship.
Moreover, Afghans can trade with India and other countries very easily
too apart from traveling for leisure, treatment and education at far
cheaper cost carrying lots of goods.
The International Airport of Chabahar is called Konarak named after
an Indian temple city. This is a living proof that the actual ancient port of
Chabahar is older than Alexanders time. That airport may start having a
flight each day directly from Kabul and Mumbai and many other cities
once in a week. India, Iran, and Afghanistan can together enhance the
joint tourism sector via Chabahar in the future. Iran is also giving a 1 sq

km (1 km X 1 km) land for Afghan businessmen to store their trading

items. But to make sure only original and quality products at cheapest
possible price comes to Afghanistan some rules must be made. Each and
every single fake product coming from Pakistan via Torkham has to be
completely stopped by making a rule that only manufacturer licensed
national level distributor in Pakistan needs to be contacted by local
wholesalers in Afghanistan. That will serve the purpose. In this way,
Afghanistan can keep using both Torkham and Chabahar depending
upon the items/pricing.
Afghan citizens need not fear that one day Iran will tell them that the
port belongs to them and not to Afghanistan. India is Irans biggest
importer of oil and India is investing another $ 20 billion in Iran for
more oil extraction, a direct gas pipeline under the sea, and megafactories to be set up by 2020. India will also have its own Army present
in Chabahar just in case any problem occurs from Pakistan side. But
more importantly, there are lots of things that the Steel factory and the
Iron ore mine shall need including Dynamites to break mountains and
transporting those safely would be a top most priority. It is a start of a
new journey which will change geography and it will be remembered
after 100 years.

Author is Prithwi Tilak Banerjee. He is an Indian Citizen

living and working in Kabul since March 2009. He is
Advisor to Minister in MCIT and a Business Professor at
various private Universities.
The Afghan Tribune | Prithwi Tilak Banerjee | Published:
June 12, 2016, 07:40 AM