Documenti di Didattica
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SECTIONAL UPDATE
6/27/2016
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IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ................................................................................................. 977
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost....................................................................................................................................... 979
IBERIA - Bank Deposits Were Leaving, Now they Are Fleeing .................................................................................................................. 980
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem .............................................................................................................................................. 981
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support .............................................................................................................................. 982
CHINA: A LARGE FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS OUTFLOW PROBLEM! .................................................................................................................. 991
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 991
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing 2002-2015 .................................................................................................................... 991
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP ............................................................................................................... 991
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Ratio of Aggregate Financing to Nominal GDP ................................................................................................. 992
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Growth vs Nominal GDP Growth .................................................................................... 992
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Annual Increase in Aggregate Finance vs The Annual Increase in Nominal GDP ........................................... 993
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Ratio of Increase in Aggregate Finance to the Increase in Nominal GDP ........................................................ 993
NEW-CHARTS How Much Credit Will It Ztake? ....................................................................................................................................... 994
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Projected to 2025 ......................................................................................................... 994
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Annual Increase - Yuan ................................................................................................ 995
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Aggregate Financing Annual Increase US$ ................................................................................................ 995
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Credit Growth US versus China ...................................................................................................................... 996
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP Projected to 2025 ............................................................................................ 996
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing & Nominal GDP Projected to 2025 ............................................................................................ 997
NEW-CHARTS Non-Performing Loans .................................................................................................................................................... 997
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Will Not Grow at 12.6% a Year ..................................................................................................... 998
NEW-CHARTS A Different Scenario A Gradual Slowdown in Credit Growth ....................................................................................... 998
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Projected to 2025 Under a Gradual Slowdown Scenario............................................................. 999
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Annual Change Yuan 2003-2025 est. ....................................................................................... 999
NEW-CHARTS Aggregate Financing Annual Change US$ 2003-2025 est. ...................................................................................... 1000
NEW-CHARTS The Ratio of Aggregate Financing to GDP (Under a Different Scenario) ..................................................................... 1000
NEW-CHARTS Approaches to Chinese Funding? ................................................................................................................................. 1001
NEW-CHARTS The Balance of Payments Surplus Wont Be Enough! ................................................................................................. 1001
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Balance of Payments = Change in FX Reserves ............................................................................................ 1002
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Balance of Payments = Balance of Payments Must Balance! ........................................................................ 1002
NEW-CHARTS Breakdown of Chinas Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................ 1003
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Current Account ................................................................................................................................................ 1003
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Capital Account ................................................................................................................................................. 1004
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Financial Account .............................................................................................................................................. 1004
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Net Error & Omissions ...................................................................................................................................... 1005
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Foreign Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 1005
NEW-CHARTS Is a Chinese Devaluation a Possibility? ........................................................................................................................ 1006
NEW-CHARTS Is a Change in the Chinese RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) a Possibility? .................................................................. 1006
NEW-CHARTS Changing the RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) - 1 .......................................................................................................... 1007
NEW-CHARTS Changing the RRR (Required Reserve Ratio) - 2 .......................................................................................................... 1007
NEW-CHARTS Is A Chinese QE a Possibility?-1 ................................................................................................................................... 1008
NEW-CHARTS Is A Chinese QE a Possibility?-2 ................................................................................................................................... 1008
NEW-CHARTS A Breakdown of the Peoples Bank of Chinas Assets .................................................................................................. 1009
NEW-CHARTS Chinese QE Would BE Potentially Different It Could Cause a Destabilizing Inflation Shock .................................... 1009
NEW-CHARTS Chinese CPI Annual Percentage Change Remember Tiananmen Square! .............................................................. 1010
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Yuan Devaluation, RRR Reductions and QE Coming..................................................................................... 1010
CHARTS Chinas Hot Money Flows ....................................................................................................................................................... 1011
CHARTS Capital Outflows and Falling Foreign Direct Investment ........................................................................................................ 1012
CHARTS Exchange Rates & Foreign Exchange Reserves ................................................................................................................... 1012
CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings v-China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1013
CHARTS Belgiums US Treasury Holdings ............................................................................................................................................ 1013
CHARTS China Containerized Freight Index ......................................................................................................................................... 1014
CHARTS China Fiscal Spending Y-o-Y Increase ................................................................................................................................... 1014
CHARTS GDP Growth Steady At 6.9% in Q3 2015 ............................................................................................................................... 1015
CHARTS Debt Fueled But Not Much Growth ......................................................................................................................................... 1015
CHARTS Chinese New Loan Breakdown .............................................................................................................................................. 1016
CHARTS CAI Suggests China Economic Activity Below Reported GDP .............................................................................................. 1016
CHARTS Chinese Bank NPLs Are Gradually Rising Every Quarter ...................................................................................................... 1017
CHARTS A Tale of Two Economies ....................................................................................................................................................... 1017
CHARTS Chinas Investment Share of GDP Higher than Ever in Japan or Korea ................................................................................ 1019
CHARTS China Treasury Holding Have Peaked But US Commercial Banks Taking Uo the Slack ..................................................... 1020
CHARTS China 2014 Labor Force Declines First Time in at Least Two Decades ................................................................................ 1020
CHARTS Ponzi Finance: Chinese Firms Are Issuing More Debt Just to Pay Interest .......................................................................... 1021
CHARTS Chinese Global Trade Index 2001 ....................................................................................................................................... 1021
CHARTS Chinese Imports Exports..................................................................................................................................................... 1022
CHARTS Chinas Economic Weakness Wider Deeper In September ................................................................................................ 1023
CHARTS Sinking Li Keqiamg Index Contrasts With Stable GDP .......................................................................................................... 1024
CHARTS China is the Undisputed Engine of Global Growth ................................................................................................................. 1025
CHARTS China Has Been Consuming Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials ............................................................................... 1025
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment & Consumption in China Y-o-Y Growth ........................................................................................ 1026
CHARTS Fixed Asset Investment Rises Least Since 2000 ................................................................................................................... 1027
CHARTS Economic Indicators Point to Lower Growth than the Headline Figures ................................................................................ 1027
CHARTS Gains of Real Estate Development Investment 1/10th of 2010 Pace ..................................................................................... 1028
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China as a % of GDP ............................................................................................................................... 1028
CHARTS Foreign Exports to China for Chinas Domestic Use as a % of GDP ..................................................................................... 1029
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CHARTS China & Belgium Treasury Holdings vs China FX Reserves ................................................................................................. 1029
CHARTS Breakdown of Chinese Imports ............................................................................................................................................... 1030
CHARTS Chinese Imports Slow to 5 Year Low...................................................................................................................................... 1031
CHARTS Chinas Increasing Substitution of Imports for Made in China Products .............................................................................. 1031
CHARTS Developing Economies Exposure to Chinese Domestic Demand ......................................................................................... 1032
CHARTS Chinas GDP Monthly Tracker and Target .............................................................................................................................. 1033
CHARTS China Matters Less for US Consumers than for Stock Investors ........................................................................................... 1033
CHARTS Monthly Change in Foreign Reserves .................................................................................................................................... 1033
CHARTS Monthly FX Purchases ............................................................................................................................................................ 1034
CHARTS Chinas Estimated Productivity Growth Based on IP & Employment Shifts ........................................................................... 1034
CHARTS Shanghai Composite Index Profits% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................... 1035
CHARTS Corporate & Household Debt as % GDP ................................................................................................................................ 1035
CHARTS Weak Yuan Supported Much of 21-Year Export Rise to U.S. ................................................................................................ 1036
CHARTS Outstanding Balance of Margin Finance Shanghai Composite ........................................................................................... 1037
CHARTS Currency Rout Goes Global as Risk Seen of 50% Loss ........................................................................................................ 1037
CHARTS Yuan Trading Band ................................................................................................................................................................. 1038
CHARTS Historical Yuan FX Pattern...................................................................................................................................................... 1039
CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan .................................................................................................. 1039
CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes....................................................................................................................................... 1040
CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP........................................................................................................................................ 1041
CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ........................................................................................................................... 1042
CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ................................................................................................................................................ 1042
CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ...................................................................................................................................................... 1043
CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................... 1043
CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ...................................................................................................................... 1044
CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore ............................................................................................................................................ 1044
CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ............................................................................................................................................................... 1045
CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ....................................................................................................................... 1045
CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP .................................................................................................................. 1046
CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .............................................................................................................. 1046
CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown........................................................................................................................................... 1047
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts .......................................................................................................................... 1047
CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ....................................................................................................................... 1048
CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 1048
CHARTS Chinese PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1049
CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ....................................................................................................................... 1050
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 1050
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 1050
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 1051
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 1051
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 1052
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 1052
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 1053
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 1054
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 1054
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 1055
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 1055
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 1056
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 1056
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 1057
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 1058
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 1058
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1059
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 1059
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 1060
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 1061
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 1061
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 1063
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 1063
CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1063
CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 1064
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 1065
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 1065
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 1066
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 1066
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 1067
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 1068
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 1069
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 1070
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 1070
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 1072
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 1073
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 1074
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1074
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1076
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1077
CHARTS - CHINA Industrial Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 1078
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MONETARY POLICY GLOBAL SLOW DOWN FORCES FED TO HOLD ON RATE INCREASE ......................................................... 1627
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1627
NEW-CHARTS: US Monetary Base Growth versus S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................... 1628
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- US Dollar Index ................................................................................................................................................ 1628
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1629
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- S&P 500 PE Ratio ............................................................................................................................................ 1629
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................................................ 1630
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- HYG .................................................................................................................................................................. 1630
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 1631
NEW-CHARTS: Post QE-3- LQD .................................................................................................................................................................. 1631
NEW-CHARTS: Feds US PCE Y-o-Y ........................................................................................................................................................... 1632
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 1632
NEW-CHARTS: US Industrial Production ..................................................................................................................................................... 1633
NEW-CHARTS: US Durable Goods New Orders ......................................................................................................................................... 1633
CHARTS: US Monetary Velocity Declines as Excess Leverage Weighs on Consumption .......................................................................... 1634
CHARTS: Velocity of Money Shows Transmission System Broken ............................................................................................................. 1634
CHARTS: Interest Rates Reflect Economic Growth & Inflation .................................................................................................................... 1635
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Change versus S&P 500 .............................................................................................................................. 1635
CHARTS: Fed Policy Initiatives versus S&P 500 Actions ............................................................................................................................. 1636
CHARTS: Total US Credit Old versus New Series .................................................................................................................................... 1636
CHARTS: Banks Treasuries Stash Boosts Case for Fed Delay .................................................................................................................. 1637
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FISCAL POLICY RECIPE FOR COLLAPSE: RISING MILITARY & SOCIAL WELFARE SPENDING ................................................... 1653
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 1655
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1655
FINANCING The Debt Ceiling Debt Limit is Likely to Fall in November ..................................................................................................... 1655
FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .............................................................. 1655
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ........................................................................... 1656
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ........................................................................... 1656
FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change ........................................................................................................ 1657
FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 1657
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 1658
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1659
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 1660
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 1660
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 1661
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1662
NEW-CHARTS Where Did Every Dollar in Spending Go? ........................................................................................................................ 1662
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 1662
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 1663
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 1664
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 1664
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 1665
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 1665
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 1666
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 1666
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 1668
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 1669
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 1670
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 1675
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 1676
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 1678
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 1682
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 1687
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1697
NEW-CHARTS Connecticut Bond Yield Spreads Over AAA Munis .......................................................................................................... 1697
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 1697
NEW-RESEARCH - Countdown To Insolvency Begins For Chicago Pensions As State Supreme Court Rejects Reform Bid ...... 1698
NEW-RESEARCH - Connecticut Credit Risk Spikes to Record High ..................................................................................................... 1700
RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke .................................................................................................................. 1702
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 1706
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 1712
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1717
NEW-Charts Revenues Completely Consumed By Major Entitlements & Interest by 2025 ..................................................................... 1717
NEW-Charts In FY 2014 Medicaid Accounted for 8% of Federal Outlays ................................................................................................. 1717
NEW-Charts Medicare Spending is a Growing Share of the Federal Budget ........................................................................................... 1718
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 1719
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 1722
US REGULATORY COSTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1725
CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ................................................................................................................. 1725
RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty............................................................................................................................................................... 1725
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1727
NEW-CHARTS Marginal Tax Rates Must Nearly Double to Fund Entitlement Spending ......................................................................... 1727
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 1728
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 1729
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 1732
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 1732
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CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 1733
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 1734
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 1734
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 1735
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1739
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 1742
NEW-CHARTS Size of US military Spending Dwarfs all others- Spends more than the Next 15 Combined ........................................... 1742
CHARTS Competing Visions of Government ............................................................................................................................................. 1742
CHARTS - Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1744
CHARTS - Growing Government Dependence ............................................................................................................................................. 1745
CHARTS - Coming Demographic Shock ....................................................................................................................................................... 1745
CHARTS - Fiscal Cliff Outcome .................................................................................................................................................................... 1749
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RECESSION Durable Goods v Core-Durable Goods (Ex Defense) versus Recessions ...................................................................... 1847
RECESSION Real Gross Domestic Investment versus Recessions ..................................................................................................... 1847
RECESSION Total Real Private Fixed Investment as % of Real GDP versus Recessions .................................................................. 1848
RECESSION Businesses Operate Against Actual Demand versus Recessions .................................................................................. 1848
RECESSION ISM Composite Index versus Recessions........................................................................................................................ 1849
RECESSION Capacity Utilization versus Industrial Production versus Recessions ............................................................................. 1849
RECESSION Retail Sales (NSA) Annual % Chg of 12 Month Average versus Recessions ................................................................. 1850
RECESSION Monthly Retail Control Purchases Y-o-Y % Chg versus Recessions......................................................................... 1850
RECESSION Major Economic Trends.................................................................................................................................................... 1851
NEW-RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1852
NEW- RECESSION Economists are starting to warn about the risk of a new U.S. recession .............................................................. 1852
NEW- RECESSION Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise ............................................................... 1855
RECESSION Retail Sales Slump on Deck ............................................................................................................................................. 1857
RECESSION This Is another "Subprime" Waiting To Blow ................................................................................................................... 1860
RECESSION Record Gap between US Inventories and Sales Screams Recession ............................................................................ 1863
RECESSION August spending was the weakest in nominal dollar terms since 2012 ........................................................................... 1865
RECESSION The Next Recession Will Definitely Not Happen In 2018 ................................................................................................. 1870
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