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CLCULO DE VOLMENES DE
TRNSITO
Tema:
201610
Para obtener una estimacin de los volmenes de trnsito futuro, sobre todo en
carreteras, donde se cuenta con datos de las series histricas de los
volmenes de trnsito promedio diarios TPDS, se utilizan las regresiones
lineales y curvilneas, tipos de la recta, exponencial, potencial y logartmica.
Se nos brind informacin de un estudio realizado anteriormente sobre
volumen de transito durante un da de una determinada zona de estudio,
teniendo as el siguiente cuadro:
HORAS
00:00 01:00
01:00 02:00
02:00 03:00
03:00 04:00
04:00 05:00
05:00 06:00
06:00 07:00
07:00 08:00
08:00 09:00
09:00 10:00
10:00 11:00
11:00 12:00
12:00 13:00
13:00 14:00
14:00 -
MIERCOLES 09/10/14
SUMA HORARIO DE
VEHCULOS
198
212
346
498
655
760
1645
2042
1823
1813
1715
1823
1941
2032
1741
15:00
15:00 16:00
16:00 17:00
17:00 18:00
18:00 19:00
19:00 20:00
20:00 21:00
21:00 22:00
22:00 23:00
23:00 24:00
1702
1843
1957
2491
2355
2148
1624
762
469
1. REGRESIN LINEAL
1.1.
TPDS
1.2.
34640
Fd
0.982
0.994
1.001
1.015
0.977
1.013
1.020
veh/se
m
AO
2011
TPDS (Y)
29,444
REGRESIN LINEAL
X
X2
1
1
Y2
866,956,287
XY
29,444
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
164,541
2
3
4
5
15
1732.01
27712.11
r2
1.00
TPD
estimado
1,732.01*X+27,7
12.11
1.3.
4
9
16
25
55
971,950,993
1,082,945,396
1,199,939,497
1,322,933,296
5,444,725,468
62,352
98,724
138,561
181,861
510,942
AO
TPDS (veh)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
TPD estimado
(veh)
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
38,104
39,836
41,568
43,300
45,032
46,764
48,496
50,228
51,960
53,692
55,424
57,156
58,888
60,620
62,352
64,084
65,816
67,548
69,280
25
2035
71,012
2. REGRESIN EXPONENCIAL
2.1.
TPDS
2.2.
34640
Fd
0.982
0.994
1.001
1.015
0.977
1.013
1.020
veh/se
m
AO
TPDS (Y)
2011
29,444
2012
31,176
2013
32,908
2014
34,640
2015
36,372
164,541
15
REGRESIN
X
1
2
3
4
5
55
EXPONENCIAL
X2
Ln(X)
1
0.00
4
0.69
9
1.10
16
1.39
25
1.61
5
52
Ln(Y) X*Ln(Y)
10.29
10.29
10.35
20.69
10.40
31.20
10.45
41.81
10.50
52.51
157
Ln(Y)^2
105.89
107.07
108.19
109.26
110.28
541
Ln(a)
0.05
1.05
Ln(b)
10.24
28,009.4
8
r2
1.00
TPD
estimado
28,009.48*E^
0.05X
2.3.
AO
TPDS (veh)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
TPD estimado
(veh)
29,523
31,119
32,801
34,574
36,442
38,412
40,488
42,676
44,983
47,414
49,976
52,677
55,524
58,525
61,688
65,022
68,537
72,241
76,145
80,261
84,598
89,171
93,990
99,070
104,424
3. REGRESIN POTENCIAL
3.1.
3.2.
TD
35287
34856
Fd
0.982
0.994
34595
1.001
34126
35462
34201
1.015
0.977
1.013
33954
1.020
TS
24248
1
TPDS
34640
veh/s
em
AO
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
TPDS
(Y)
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
164,54
X
1
2
3
4
5
15
Ln(X) Ln(Y)
0
0.69
1.10
1.39
1.61
5
10.29
10.35
10.40
10.45
10.50
52
Ln(X)*L
n(Y)
0.00
7.17
11.43
14.49
16.90
50
Ln(X)
^2
0.00
0.48
1.21
1.92
2.59
6
Ln(Y)
^2
105.89
107.07
108.19
109.26
110.28
541
1
a
0.13
Lnb
10.28
r2
0.96
TPD
estimado
(E^lnb)*(X
^a)
3.3.
AO
TPDS (veh)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
TPD estimado
(veh)
29,010
31,718
33,418
34,680
35,691
36,539
37,271
37,918
38,497
39,023
39,505
39,950
40,364
40,751
41,115
41,458
41,783
42,091
42,385
42,666
42,935
43,193
43,441
43,680
43,910
4. REGRESIN LOGARITMICA
4.1.
4.2.
TD
35287
34856
Fd
0.982
0.994
34595
1.001
34126
35462
34201
1.015
0.977
1.013
33954
1.020
TS
24248
1
TPDS
34640
veh/se
m
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5
TPDS
(Y)
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
164,541
4,194.18
28,892.2
AO
REGRESIN POTENCIAL
Ln(X Ln(X)^
X
)
2
1
0
0.00
2
0.69
0.48
3
1.10
1.21
4
1.39
1.92
5
1.61
2.59
15
5
6
Y^2
Ln(X)*Y
866,956,287
971,950,993
1,082,945,396
1,199,939,497
1,322,933,296
5,444,725,468
0.00
21,609.65
36,153.28
48,021.43
58,538.72
164,323
2
r2
0.95
TPD estimado
b+
a*LnX
1.1.
AO
TPDS (veh)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
TPD estimado
(veh)
28,892
31,799
33,500
34,707
35,642
36,407
37,054
37,614
38,108
38,550
38,949
39,314
39,650
39,961
40,250
40,521
40,775
41,015
41,242
41,457
41,661
41,857
42,043
42,222
42,393
RESUMEN
AO
LINEAL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
29,444
31,176
32,908
34,640
36,372
38,104
39,836
41,568
43,300
45,032
46,764
48,496
50,228
51,960
53,692
55,424
57,156
58,888
60,620
62,352
64,084
65,816
67,548
69,280
71,012
RESUMEN
EXPONENCI POTENCIA LOGARITMIC
AL
L
A
29,523
29,010
28,892
31,119
31,718
31,799
32,801
33,418
33,500
34,574
34,680
34,707
36,442
35,691
35,642
38,412
36,539
36,407
40,488
37,271
37,054
42,676
37,918
37,614
44,983
38,497
38,108
47,414
39,023
38,550
49,976
39,505
38,949
52,677
39,950
39,314
55,524
40,364
39,650
58,525
40,751
39,961
61,688
41,115
40,250
65,022
41,458
40,521
68,537
41,783
40,775
72,241
42,091
41,015
76,145
42,385
41,242
80,261
42,666
41,457
84,598
42,935
41,661
89,171
43,193
41,857
93,990
43,441
42,043
99,070
43,680
42,222
104,424
43,910
42,393
TPD estimado
120,000
100,000
80,000
Vehculos
60,000
40,000
20,000
10
15
N Aos
20
25