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Contents
THE FUTURE UPON US ..............................................................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................................5
1. RUSSIA AND ASIA PACIFIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY ...........................................................................................7
1.1. Reasons behind the turn to the East
...............................................................................................7
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
To our readers
Address by the Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development
andSupport of the Valdai Discussion Club
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Andrey Bystritskiy
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
INTRODUCTION
Todays Russia has all but completed its
turn toward Asia. However, it remains to be seen
how far-reaching and successful it will be, and in
what specific areas it will evolve and what will
be its content, benefits, and costs. This features
three key elements highlighted in three reports
released by the Valdai Discussion Club between
2012-2015. Some of the provisions and ideas
put forward by the authors of these reports
made their way into Russias public policy and
paved the way to concrete political decisions.
The first of these three reports, titled Toward
the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of
Russia, highlighted new opportunities for Russia
and, most importantly, for Russia to the east of
the Urals, against the backdrop of accelerated
development of Asian countries. The report
called for making use of these opportunities. The
second report, titled Toward the Great Ocean2,
or Russias Breakthrough to Asia, focused on
opportunities for cooperation in specific areas
and proposed new frameworks for initiatives of
this kind to succeed. The third report, Toward the
Great Ocean3: Creating Central Eurasia, was
aimed at building a new system of international
relations within the greater Eurasia area and
explored opportunities for facilitating substantive
cooperation and aligning the Eurasian integration
processes and Chinas Silk Road Economic Belt
project.
Dozens of experts took part in writing these
reports with a view of devising recommendations
that would help create favorable external
conditions for Russias development, its presence
in Asia and Eurasia, whilst also facilitating
regional trade and economic cooperation for
Siberia and the Russian Far East. The latter
objective has been equally important, if not more
important, than the former. It is obvious that
attracting massive investment flows from Asian
countries and Europe, and providing as much
freedom as possible to local business initiatives
is the only way for Siberia and the Russian Far
East to foster development.
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Sergei Karaganov
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
India
15
12
9
6
ASEAN
countries
South Korea
Japan
14.2%
10.4%
10.1%
8.3%
6.5%
8%
7.4%
5.6%
4.7%
3.3%
4.6%
3
2.4%
4.7%
0%
0
-3
-5.5%
-6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
2011
140
2012
2013
2014
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
China
Indonesia
Japan
South
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
India
220
22
200
20
180
Defense
spending,
bln US dollars
160
140
Share of
government
spending
18
Share
of GDP
16
14
120
12
100
10
80
60
40
20
0
China
Indonesia
Japan
South
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
India
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Naval
bases
Army
Marin
arine
Corp
Cor
Corps
Littoral
Combat Ships
500 Number
of trtroops
South Korea
Japan
28,500
8,800
250
49,400
11,900
19,250
19,200
250
2,400
15,850
Perma
Pe
ermanent
a
Guam
Current
nt Rotational
RRot
ot
l Acces
Access
ss Ag
Agreeme
Agreemen
eemen
ments
5,500
2,000
3,500
PPotential RRotat
Rotational
ot tional Acces
ess Agreem
es
reem
eements
Thailand
Utapao
Philippines
Sattahip
Enhanced Defense
Cooperation
Agreement 2014
Australia
British Indian
Ocean Territory/
Diego Garcia Island
180
Darwin
550
Singapore
Malaysia
190
Labuan
Talks on creating maritimeN?RPMJ?GPAP?BCR?AFKCLR
Marine Corps
Logistics Group
* as of December 2014
Source: The Military Balance 2015. IISS
10
2,500
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
%
1.5
1.23%
1
0.5
0.34%
0
0.5
0.36 %
0.7 %
0.91 %
1.06 %
1.5
Indonesia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
11
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
CYCLES
CYCLESOF
OFRUSSIAS
RUSSIASACTIVITY
ACTIVITYWITH
WITHAPEC
APECBYBYTHE
THENUMBER
NUMBER
OF
OF PROPOSED
PROPOSEDCOOPERATION
COOPERATIONPROJECTS
PROJECTS(20092015)
(20092015)
25
Number of initiatives
23
20
15
11
10
5
0
6
4
2009
2010
3
2011
2012
2013
6RXUFH2IFLDO$3(&ZHEVLWH
12
8
6
2014
1
2015
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
13
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
14
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
88.35
2014
80
2015
63.55
60
40
27.29
20
30.77
18.06
21.31
9.51 7.83
China
South Korea
Japan
India
15
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
16
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
2. TURN TO THE EAST: THE RISE OF RUSSIAS SIBERIA AND FAR EAST
Stepping up political and economic
cooperation with Asian countries is not only
important and needed in its own right, but is also
a tool and driver of accelerated socioeconomic
development of Russian territories to the east of
the Urals, i.e. Siberia and the Far East. The rapid
economic growth of Asian countries has created
real development opportunities for Russias Siberia
and Far East. Without a new federal and local
governance model these opportunities dont have
much of a chance to materialize. Russia had better
set its sails in order to catch the wind of Asian
growth.
This process started back in 2012 with the
establishment of the Ministry for the Development
of the Russian Far East, which was tasked with
coordinating public policy regarding eastern
territories. Over the three years that have elapsed
since then, the minister has changed, the regional
development model was revised, and many new
tools for implementing it were developed and
launched. It is now time to sum up the preliminary
results and highlight the most important
developments for Russia to the east of the Urals
and the integration of these territories into the APR
economic space.
The institutional framework for the turn
to the East was developed in 2015. This effort
included the selection of the first nine priority
development areas in Russias Far East. Three of
them have already been launched: Komsomolsk,
specializing in aircraft parts manufacturing and
timber processing; Khabarovsk with metal works,
an agricultural greenhouse complex, a warehousing
transport and logistics complex and an airport;
and Nadezhdinskaya with a transport and logistics
complex, a confectionery plant, and enterprises
specializing in processed food production.
A list of investment projects has been
established. By the end of 2015 it included six
initiatives, and three more were added in February
2016. Development institutions were created and
are now up and running, including the Far East
Development Fund, the Far East Development
17
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Change in volumes
of industrial output
in 2015 compared
to 2014, %
1.7
3.4
5.4
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT
Republic of Altai
Change in volumes
of manufacturing
in 2015 compared
to 2014, %
0.2
2.5
2.7
5.6
22.6
Republic of Tyva
12.1
4.4
4.5
1.9
2.9 2.3
3.5
5.7
2.1
0.3
0.8
0.8
3.5
0.6
1.2
0.0
0.5
0.6
2.3
Irkutsk Region
Republic of Buryatia
Kemerovo Region
2.0
Novosibirsk Region
Omsk Region
1.1
0.7
0.6
Altai Territory
Tomsk Region
1.1
2.1
1.3
Krasnoyarsk Territory
Zabaykalsky Territory
Republic of Khakassia
7.2
4.8
2.1
10.4
10.0
25.6
8.5
8.0
4.6
6.7
1.0
6.1
Sakhalin Region
0.6
Magadan Region
6.5
4.9
3.8
4.4
2.0
0.7
2.5
0.4
16.7
13.0
Kamchatka Territory
Khabarovsk Territory
3.5
15.5
Amur Region
Chukotka Autonomous Area
13.3
1.7
2.2
7.1
12.3
14.9
14.2
8.6
20
15
10
38.5
5
18
9.0
8.6
9.0
Primorye Territory
13.8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
10.9
18.6
Republic of Altai
Republic of Tyva
6.7
Irkutsk Region
5.6
Republic of Buryatia
4.8
10.1
Kemerovo Region
Novosibirsk Region
14.1
Omsk Region
14.9
16.6
Altai Territory
23.9
Tomsk Region
27.6
Krasnoyarsk Territory
31.6
Zabaykalsky Territory
Republic of Khakassia
39
4.9
59.6
Sakhalin Region
Magadan Region
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
14.3
Kamchatka Territory
14
Khabarovsk Territory
2.7
3.7
Amur Region
59.3
7.1
Primorye Territory
8.5
27.5
40
30
20
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
20
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
21
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
70% 68%
50%
41%
Platinum-group metals
Gold
Hydro energy and timber
Lead
Molybdenum
Coal
Zinc
Copper
Nickel
Source: sfo.gov.ru/okrug/ekonomika/strategiya/
22
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
23
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
24
D e s p i t e a n i n i t i a l a cce l e r a t i o n ,
cooperation subsequently slowed down. In this
connection, the Supreme Eurasian Economic
Council, at its meeting in October 2015,
decided to draft a roadmap for EAEU-China
cooperation. Put in charge of the project,
the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEC)
at first stage seemed to remove itself from
the effort. Thus, after the intellectual work
reached a new level, it is important to infuse
it with the necessary practical tempo, which
means creating institutional mechanisms
for daily practical cooperation between
the EAEU and China. This should include
cooperation between state authorities, the
EAEU supranational institutions, cooperation
between development institutions (Silk Road
Fund and Eurasian Development Bank), and
dialogue between businesses, experts, and civil
societies.
To r e i t e r a t e , t h e p o t e n t i a l fo r
intensified interstate and inter-regional
cooperation in Central Eurasia is not only
and not so much a transport project as a codevelopment project involving countries in
the region. This macro-region possesses a
huge potential based on its economic vigor,
rich mineral resources, Chinese investments,
and common institutional and legal projects
like the EAEU, the SCO, and the CSTO. All of
this creates prerequisites for the revival of
the original Silk Road as a continental belt
of trade, economic, and cultural cooperation
between adjacent states, which enables them
to gain wealth and prosperity.
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
25
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
26
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
856,179
779,779
647,521 636,975
600,000
463,600
400,000
335,220
168,040
200,000
150,846
0
Domestic shipments
2014
Imports
Transit
Export
2015
Source: Calculations by InfraNews.ru information portal based on open quotes by Transcontainer, Russkaya Troyka,
Kazakhstan Temir Zholy.
27
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
300
50
270
240
210
180
153.8
150
45
90
22.8
30
0
2008
18.8
2009
2010
25
117.3
100.1
90.0
85.1
2011
20
15
10
33.7
28.5
35
30
118.8
60
217.2
166
152.5
120
40
251
234.5
228.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average rates to deliver one TEU to Moscow by sea via St. Petersburg
versus the Trans-Siberian Railway
Shanghai St. Petersburg Moscow
5,600
$
5,000
5,300
5,000
4,500
4,000
4,000
4,300
3,700
3,700
3,200
3,000
2,800
3,250
2,500
3,100
2,400
2,000
2,700
2,200
1,000
0
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
28
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
TOTAL
47.8%
EAEU
30.9%
Afghanistan,
Iran, Iraq
30.6%
8.8%
Turkey
12.1%
261.2
USD bn
2014
45%
TOTAL
178.2
Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan
6.6%
3.3%
Ukraine, Moldova
5.4%
4%
1.8%
Baltic states
2.1%
0.7%
Georgia, Azerbaijan
0.8%
USD bn
2015
Foreign trade turnover between China and participating SREB countries, USD bn
72.8
EAEU
52.1
24.3
37.3
27.5
16.0
20.7
19.3
42.9
17.6
12.7 7.9
18.6
9.5
Imports
Exports
2014
2015
Source: General Administration of Customs and National Bureau of Statistics of Peoples Republic of China.
29
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
110,060.6
120,000
115,688.6
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
18,114.3
155.0 189.7
2,188.1 3,080.5
Armenia
2014
Belarus
8,199.5
Kazakhstan
2,688.2 1,163.0
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
2015
*with possible margin of error, since not all product categories are measured in metric tons
Source: Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, National Bureau of Statistics of Peoples Republic of China.
30
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Bres
Br
Bres
rest
Yekaterinburg
Moscow
Kazan
Orenburg
burg
BELARUS
Tyumen
Omsk Novosibirsk
1.2
mln TEU / year
Trans-Siberian Railway
Krasnoyarsk
Potii
Po
Ashgabatt
BBaku
a
Tehran
IRAN
150
thousand TEU / year
China Iran
Chita
Ulan-Ude
Saksaulskaya
Alma
lma
maty
ma
a
T ke
Tashke
Tas
Tashk
kkent
RUSSIA
Irkutsk
ts
tsk
KAZAKHSTAN
GEORGIAA
15
China Georgia
China Iran
China Turkmenistan
(highway)
Urumqi
qii
Zabaikals
Zabaikalsk
Khabarovsk
ovsk
Harbin
Vladiv
ladivos
ladivo
vostok
oss
Dalian
ian
CHINA
TURKM
MENIS
M
ISTAN
IS
SSTAN
TAN
N
Shanghaii
100
thousand TEU / year
China Turkmenistan (highway)
31
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
Routes
utess
2P?LQ1G@CPG?L0?GJU?W
Chhi
hina (Shanghai)
nghai) Vladivostok Br
Brest
Chi
hina (Dalian) Zabaik
hi
Zabaikalsk Brest
Chiina (Urumqi)
Urumqi) K
Kazakhstan (Alma-Ata) Brest
Chin
ina Georg
in
Georgia
China
na Iran
Chin
hina Turkmenistan (highway)
hin
700
More than
thousand TEU / year
2FPMSEFRP?AGLAJSBGLEGLRCPL?JBMKCQRGAA?N?AGRW
2FPMSEFRP?ACVAJSBGLEGLRCPL?JBMKCQRGAA?N?AGRW
RUSSIA
Yekaterinburg
Moscow
Kazan
Bres
Br
Bres
rest
Orenburg
burg
!FGL?c%CMPEG?
!FGL?c
c %CMPEG?
MPE ?
Novosibirsk
Irkutsk
ts
tsk
Tehran
TURKM
KMENIS
KM
ISTAN
IS
SSTAN
TAN
IRAN
Vladiv
ladivos
ladivo
vostok
oss
CARRIAGE
AGE BY SEA
RFPMS
RFPM
PMSEF1SCX
PMS
A?L?J
L?J
PMSLBDPGA?
DPMK!FGL?RM#SPMNC
SPMNC
DPMK#SPMNCRM!FGL?
4.5
KJL2#3
year
11.2
KJL2#3 WC?P
Source: calculations from the information portal InfraNews.ru based on tender offers
of TransContainer, Russkaya Troyka, the Republican State Enterprise Kazakhstan temir zholy
32
Dalian
lian
!FGL?c)?X?IFQR?Lc PCQR
!FGL?c'P?L
255c
Zabaikalsk
Khabarovsk
ovsk
Harbin
Urumqi
qii
Chita
Ulan-Ude
Alm
Almaty
Alma
ma
TTashke
Tashk
kkent
ke
Ashgabatt
Baku
B
a
8?@?GI?JQIc PCQR
Krasnoyarsk
Saksaulskaya
GEORGIA
A
Tyumen
Omsk
KAZAKHSTAN
BELARUS
Poti
Po
4J?BGTMQRMIc PCQR
Sh
Shanghai
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
3.4. Agenda
Institutional differences between EAEU
and SREB projects could become one of the
obstacles to their future alignment. A common
platform should be created in order for them
to be able to work out their shared vision. The
Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has been
quite passive in conducting talks with China due
to the fact that the EECs authority is limited
solely to the drafting of a non-preferential
trade treaty with China. Expanding the EECs
authority to investment and transportation
makes sense, since it would create conditions
for developing a single approach among
participating countries to all issues related to
the alignment initiative, preventing member
countries from embarking on any projects
with China separately. The need to strengthen
the EECs role in the transportation industry
is also driven by the aspiration to deeper
transport and logistics cooperation between
EAEU countries and other states (as per Par. 1
and 2, Article 114 of the Treaty), as well as to
promote Eurasian integration in this sector. The
Commission should also play a bigger role in
promoting investment cooperation in order to
address issues related to protecting the rights
33
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
34
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
35
TOWARD THE GREAT OCEAN 4: TURN TO THE EAST. PRELIMINARY RESULTS AND NEW OBJECTIVES
36
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Discussion Club
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valdai@valdaiclub.com
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