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Banking
2013-2014
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
RISKS IN BANKING
Contents
Questions
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
Overview of Risks
Market Risk
Foreign Exchange Risk
Country Risk
Off balance sheet risk
Solvency Risk
Operational Risk
Past Year Exam Questions
References
What is risk?
Recall
Surplus Units
(net savers)
Deficit Units
(net borrowers)
Cash
Deposits
(Short-term, Liquid, Small
denomination, Low Risk)
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Debt
FI
(Long-term, Illiquid, Large
(asset
transformers) Denomination, High Risk)
Cash
ASSETS
(e.g., loans)
LIABILITIES
(e.g., deposits)
Long Term
Fixed Rate
Short Term
Floating Rate
Illiquid
Liquid
China
USD
Singapore
SGD
2013-2014
To
When
They
Financial
Risks
Banking
Lending, borrowing
activities
& liabilities that are relatively illiquid and
held for longer periods
Customers: non-financial corporations,
individuals
Assets
Discrete Risks
E.g.,
Banking Book
Assets
Liabilities
Trading
book
Trading
transactions
Assets,
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Question
14
Trading Book
Assets
Liabilities
Exercise:
think-pairshare
1.
2.
3.
Interest
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Credit risk
}
To be
Liquidity risk
}
discussed
Interest rate risk
}
later
Market risk
Foreign exchange risk
Country or sovereign risk
Off-balance sheet risk
Solvency risk
Operational & technology risk
Trading
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Illustration
19
Example
20
Example
21
Exercise
22
Open /
Liquidation
Price
Unhedged
Action
Expectation
Position
Exercise:
think-pairshare
Price
Risk
LONG
SHORT
Risk of adverse deviations of the mark-tomarket value of the trading portfolio due to
market movements, during the period
required to liquidate the transactions (Bessis,
2010)
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of asset price
The
_________
of the asset
With
Wrong-way
Lost
Lost
Source: seekingalpha.com
Questions
30
Measurement
of exposure
Control mechanisms for direct market risk and
employee created risks
Hedging mechanisms
Of interest to regulators
BIS
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31
32
Market risk
Can
Internal
Value
Exercise:
think-pairshare
Exercise
33
Review Questions
34
period
Volatility
Liquidity
(transaction volume)
True or False?
35
True or False?
36
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Questions
37
38
Given
Trading
foreign currencies
Making foreign currency loans
Buying foreign issued securities
Issuing foreign denominated debt
Purchase
http://www.dbs.com/ratesonline/Pages/fxbr
a.aspx
Exercise
42
FI
Sources of FX Risk
Spot
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Currency
Assets Liabilities
FX Bought FX Sold
UK pound 24,600
70,000
170,400
321,000
Yen 31,000
20,400
250,000
220,000
2013-2014
Exercise (contd)
43
44
Compute
Exercise:
received
share
45
In Future
Risk
Receive FCY
Reason
Receive 1m worth:
Pay FCY
45
Compute
S$ paid
True or False?
48
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Review Question
49
1.
Foreign
_________ _________
Debt repudiation
WW II, only China, Cuba and North
Korea have repudiated debt.
Recent steps to forgive debts of most severe
cases conditional on reforms targeted to
improve poverty problems
Since
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/glob
alpost-blogs/macro/greece-defaultsovereign-debt
Rescheduling
Most
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Sovereign Risk
55
2.
_________ _________
Weak
Increased
Many
Country
If
True or False?
60
Euromoney Index
The
Institutional
Investor Index
Credit
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rating agencies
10
2013-2014
Off-Balance-Sheet Activities
61
Does
Loan
commitments
Letters of credit
Derivative
less than 1
Forward,
positions
futures, options and swap contracts
Earns
Off-Balance-Sheet Risk
63
Credit
In
During a
Documentation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1001/prudential-financial-reports-3-billion-loancommitment.html
Political
risk
Risks in swaps
Interest
Counterparty
Legal
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Review Question
68
BIS Basel rules require banks to convert OFFB/S activities to ON B/S equivalents & hold
capital against these activities
2.
3.
4.
5.
Review Question
69
True or False?
70
A. on-balance-sheet assets.
B. off-balance-sheet assets.
C. off-balance-sheet liabilities.
D. on-balance-sheet liabilities.
E. equity capital.
Question
71
Solvency Risk
72
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Solvency Risk
73
Illustration: 2 banks
74
Balance Sheet
Capital adequacy
Assets
minimum
Impaired
Liabilities
by incurred losses
Resulted in
75
True or False?
76
Source: BBC
Questions
77
Economies
Economies
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information system,
systems,
internal risks monitoring rules and internal
procedures designed to take timely
corrective actions, or
the compliance with the internal risk policy
rules
reporting
Losses
Technology
Employees
Customer relationships
Capital assets
External
error
risk
Mark-to-market error
Management information
IT/Telecomm systems outage
Technology provider failure
Contingency planning
Model
Recall
Phishing
Spoofing
FIs
Identity
theft concerns
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86
Employees
Turnover
Key
personnel
Fraud
Errors
Rogue
http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/press_releases/2
010/MAS_Lifts_Ban_on_the_Sale_of_Structured_Note
s_for_DBS_Bank_Malayan_Banking_and_RBS.html
87
88
Contractual disagreement
Dissatisfaction from poorly performing
technology
Default
Exercise:
which is the
Credit Event Redemption Amount
correct
formula?
89
= (aggregate principal
amount) x
(the final price)
= (aggregate principal
amount) x
(1 - the final price)
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Safety
Security
Operating costs
Fire/flood
15
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External fraud
Taxation risk
Legal risk
War
Market collapse
Reputation risk
Relationship risk
Training,
Basic
Indicator Approach
Standardized
Internal
Approach
Measurement Approach
Review Questions
95
Review Question #1
96
1.
2.
3.
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Review Question #2
97
Review Question #3
98
Review Question #4
Review Question #5
99
100
Reading
102
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Essential:
Saunders:
chapters 7, 10 and 16
Further:
Bessis:
chapters 3,4,15-18
& Thompson: Chapter 13, sect 13.1,
13.2, 13.4 and 13.6.
Matthews
17