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Given that there have been articles suggesting that the Government's development plans are
going to lead to a breach of the fiscal management plan (where the deficit has to be reduced
year on year until it reaches 3% by 2016-17), perhaps raising the excise would be a better way
to fund the plans than increasing the deficit.
There are other serious reasons for the government to keep petrol prices up. The environment
is one of them. And while this government has been accused of loosening environmental norms
for infrastructure needs, it could use extra funds to finance urban public transport and cleaner
diesel (Euro V), both of which would help reduce pollution levels in our cities. To move to Euro
V, oil companies will have to spend a great deal to upgrade their refineries and a cess on
Diesel would help pay for that. One could argue that this is a subsidy to the oil companies, but if
you don't fund them, then they will have to raise the prices of petrol and diesel anyway to pay
for modernizing their facilities.
Public transport in our cities is desperately needed. Delhi is heading towards almost 400
kilometres of metro by next year, but it is facing financing problems for the metrobus, and more
importantly, it's struggling to keep metro prices reasonable. Already a long distance ride on
Delhi Metro costs Rs. 21 ( with a peak price of Rs. 29) which means anyone travelling five times
a week from home to work and back would spend over Rs. 1,000 per month on tickets. For the
same Rs. 1,000 the consumer can today buy 16 litres of petrol which would run his motorcycle
800-1000 kilometres. So why would the commuter take the metro? Only because s/he cannot
afford the capital cost of a motorcycle. All this sounds counter-intuitive. We need, if anything, to
subsidise urban public transport, build more metros and have more buses. Cars and
motorcycles must be kept at home and used for going out to dinner or shopping, not for going to
work. High petrol and diesel prices combined with cheaper public transport will do that. (Of
course we don't have to go down the Mumbai Suburban route and charge a niggardly Rs. 215
for a monthly pass from Churchgate to Dadar -that pricing has brought one of the best
suburban transport systems to the verge of collapse).
Finally, the other reason to keep petrol and diesel prices high is that this low-price regime is not
going to last forever. Without too much discussion on the reasons for the current glut of oil and
its low prices, suffice to say that low economic growth in China, India and the EU, along with a
deliberate OPEC policy to discourage further US investment in oil fracking, is not going to last
forever. And when prices rise, will the government allow the oil companies to raise the prices at
the petrol pumps or will they like the UPA Government fear a public backlash? Given the fact
that we now seem to have elections somewhere or the other every six to 12 months, it is likely
that the government will stall price increases. So it is better to take advantage of the current
situation of low prices and keep prices reasonably high and collect as much revenue as
possible.
Assuming that oil prices remain low, the next fiscal would allow the government to collect a hefty
amount of cash for fixing the deficit, funding urban and road transport. One caveat - the
government should earmark a substantial amount directly to these areas rather than letting it all
go into the Consolidated Fund of India where the usage is unknown.