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Vegetable
g
Oils
Presentationthere
on 28
Nov at Oils
& Fats
of Olenex
in Hamburg
somebody
to pick
me Seminar
up tomorrow
at
the airport
oilseeds, oils
& fats and oilmeals
the airport
27 Nov 2013
Palm Oil
Soya Oil
20
Sun Oil
17 Oils/Fats
18
16
14
12
10
8
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
Annual Growth in Mn T
Mn T
Supply Change
Usage Change
5
But the growth will be
4
slowing down in 2013/14
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
3
the airport
2
1
0
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
1000
950
750
700
SepOct NovDecJa13 FebMar AprMayJun Jly AugSepOct Nov
900
Soya oil, Arg.fob
1200
750
1000
600
RBD palm olein, Mal.fob
800
450
600
300
Soya oil Premiums/discounts
400
150
200
-150
Ja10 Jun SepJa11 JunSep Ja12 JunSep Ja13 Jun Nov
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2010 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
1350
Jan 2014
1300
420
400
380
1250
May 2014
1200
360
340
1150
Aug'13
Dec 2013
320
Sep
Oct
Nov
300
NovDecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May JunJly Aug Sep Oct Nov
Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
650
600
850
550
800
750
500
450
Daily futures
50-day moving average
400
Nov'12Ja'13 Feb Mar Apr May JunJly AugSep Oct Nov
700
650
600
OctNov DecJa13Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSepOct Nov
27 Nov 2013
35
400
30
W orld Crushings
350
25
300
20
250
15
200
10
150
100
A nnual change
50
0
92/93
-5
-10
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
90
China
80
70
60
U.S.A.
50
In Brazil the domestic
crushers lost market
shares to soybean
exporters
EU-27
40
30
Brazil
I di
India
20
10
Argentina
95/96 97/98 99/1 0 01/0 2 03/0 4 05/0 6 07/0 8 09/1 0 11/12 13/14
October / September
27 Nov 2013
Soyameal
y
12 Meals
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
2011
2012
2013
500
400
300
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly AugSep Oct NovDec
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 1 2 '13
Soya
y p
pell,, 48%,Brazil,cif
,
, Rott
Rape meal,34%,fob ex-mill Hmb
0
A/J11 O/D11 A/J12 O/D12 A/J13 O/D13 A/J14
J/M11 J/S11 J/M12 J/S12 J/M13 J/S13 J/M14
27 Nov 2013
Soybeans,
y
U.S., cif Rotterdam
Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam
Rapeseed,Europe,00,cif Hamburg
27 Nov 2013
The Outlook
Th
O tl k
of Soybeans &
other Oilseeds
27 Nov 2013
Soybeans 58%
Argentina 12%
Brazil 18%
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
Copra & Palmkernels 4%
Groundnuts 6%
Rapeseed 14%
Cottonseed 9%
Sunflowerseed 8%
27 Nov 2013
42 0
38 0
26 0
34 0
30 0
22 0
18 0
14 0
88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01
U.S.A.
35
30
-95% of world soybean
exports (total 109 Mn T)
25
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
20
In 2020:
the airport
Brazil + Arg will have to
15
produce at least 162-167
10
Mn T of soybeans (vs
Canada
130 in 2013).
5
Huge logistical needs !
Australia
Brazil
Oth. America
Ukraine
89/90
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
25
Indonesia
20
15
Argentina
5
U.S.A.
Canada
Ukraine
90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
27 Nov 2013
10
4,5
4
Exports
3,5
Imports
15
1,5
1
93/94
91/92
97/98
95/96
01/02
05/06
09/10
13/14
99/00
03/04
07/08
11/12
Oc to b er/ Sept em be r
27 Nov 2013
Significant improvement in
production in most
countries in 2013/14
4
2
0
-2
C.I.S.
EU
USA
Can
Bra
Arg
India
Australia
China
27 Nov 2013
11
Rising Chinese
import dependence
on declining domestic oilseed crops
Competition of
other crops
Total agricultural
land shrinking
g
96
88
80
72
64
56
48
40
32
24
16
8
0
Crushings (Mn T)
Production (Mn T)
92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
70
Mn T
60
Oilseeds
50
40
30
20
10
0
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
12
60
Re st of world
50
40
30
20
10
0
91/ 92 93/ 94 95/ 96 97/ 98 99/ 00
01 /02 03 /04 05 /06 07 /08 09 /10 11/ 12 13/ 14F
90/ 91 92/ 93 94/ 95 96/ 97 98/ 99
00 /01 02 /03 04 /05 06 /07 08 /09 10/ 11 12/ 13
The U.S.A.:
This summer, drought
damaged the US soya crop;
but less than expected
Mn T
120
Reports about better than
expected yields in US soya,
confirmed by USDAs Nov 7
upward revision by 3.0 Mn T
100
80
U.S.A.
60
40
20
0
80/81
86/87
92/93
98/99
04/05 10/11
77/78
83/84
89/90 95/96
01/02
07/08
13/14
27 Nov 2013
13
70
%
World Production
60
50
40
U.S.A. Share in %
30
20
87/88
94/95
99/00
05/06
13/14
27 Nov 2013
100
80
U.S.A.
60
In 2013/14 S. American soya crop
70 Mn T above the US crop !
Favorable weather + crop outlook
in Brazil, Paraguay & Uruguay.
In Argentina very good rains in
Nov, following drought in Aug/Oct
40
20
0
80/81
86/87
92/93
98/99
04/05
10/11
77/78
83/84
89/90
95/96
01/02
07/08
13/14
27 Nov 2013
14
In Brazil concern about crop losses from caterpillar infestation. The Bra
Government declared the state of emergency for Mato Grosso to
better control the disease (imports of non-authorized pesticides).
27 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
15
7.90* 6.34
36.50* 31.40
2.12*
5.20*
2.04*
3.22*
10.40
37.83
1.98*
3.30*
7.73* 6.30
29.93* 26.52
1.47*
12.60*
10.31
30.13
1.41* 1.41*
8.76* 11.66*
27 Nov 2013
Argentina:
Reserved soybean
selling by farmers
Keeping soybeans
as a hedge against
inflation and
currency
devaluation
9
8
7
6
5
4
Nov11Ja12 Mar May Jly
May Jly
Sep Nov
27 Nov 2013
16
.
3.93*
3.74*
3.83
3.83
. 14.63* 13.94* 13.29 12.54
.
5.33*
5.38*
5.26
4.80
.
2.27*
2.27
2.01*
2.01
2.13
1.82
.
1.42*
1.33*
2.00
1.56
. 494.42* 466.05* 442.56 456.20
to 12/13
+3.5%
+1 8%
+1.8%
+2.1%
+2.8%
+4.5%
+2.3%
+7.4%
+0.4%
-1.0%
1.0%
+0.7%
+3.3%
USA: Soybean
exports again
front-loaded in
Sept/Febr 2013/14
Sharply higher
exports in 2013/14
Frontloaded exp
US exp. 18.3 Mn T
i Sep/Nov
in
S /N vs 16.8
16 8
08/09
5.58
80 75
80.75
.38
35.95
37.12
Exports
. . . . to 40.00*
there
somebody
pick me up
tomorrow
at 40.87 40.83
45.45* 46.11* 46.35* 44.85* 47.67
Crushings . .
the airport
Other use . .
2.74*
2.29* 2.42* 3.56* 3.00
34.84
45.23
2.88
End. stocks .
4.90*
3.83
4.61
5.85
4.11
3.76
Stock s/usage
5.6%
4.5%
5.4%
6.6%
4.5%
4.5%
27 Nov 2013
17
World production of
rapeseed & canola
set to increase by
3.8 Mn T to a record
67 7 Mn T
67.7
Biggest jump in
Canada
Farmer selling?
7.70*
7.10*
.43*
7.27*
6.72
.30*
8.76*
7.00
.39*
7.20
6.31
.36*
End.stocks. .
2.00*
.61
.75*
2.19
27 Nov 2013
660
600
In Sep/Nov sunseed
prices
there
somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
540
480
420
Sunseed, EU
Rapeseed, EU
360
Jan11 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja12Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja13 Mar May Jly Sep Nov
18
150
100
50
0
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
27 Nov 2013
Palm oil
Soya oil
9 Other oils
Rape oil
Sun oil
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14
27 Nov 2013
19
1997/98 - 2012/13:
48
Palm oil exports (blue line) 45
42
almost quadrupled
39
36
Exports of all 16 other
33
Oils/Fats + 48%
30
27
24
In Oct/Sept 2013/14:
21
Palm oil exports (blue line) 18
15
likely to rise to 45 Mn T
12
9
Combined exports of soya,
6
sun & rapeseed oils (red) to 3
recover to 21 Mn T
0
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
27 Nov 2013
4.6 Mn T
or
8% of 17 oils & fats
In 1990: 11.0 Mn T
or
14%
In 2000: 21.9 Mn T
or
19%
there 46.1
somebody
at
In 2010:
Mn toT pick me
or up tomorrow
27% (only
6% of area)
the airport
In 2011:
50.8 Mn T
or
28% (57% of exports)
In 2012: 53.7 Mn T (plus 5.9 Mn T of Palmkern oil)
In 2013: 56.3 Mn T
In 2020 at least 78 Mn T of palm oil required
27 Nov 2013
20
13.4 Mn T
16 1 M
16.1
Mn T
25.5 Mn T
40.2 Mn T
or
or
or
or
41.5 Mn T
41.7 Mn T
42.8 Mn T
or
or
or
23%
22%
23%
27 Nov 2013
World consumption of
oils/fats reached 184 Mn T
in Jan/Dec 2012
Of which:
Food use 133.7 Mn T
24.3 Mn (13.2%)
133 7 Mn (72
133.7
(72.7%)
7%)
17.1 Mn (9.3%)
Biofuels 24.3 Mn T
8.8 Mn (4.8%)
Chemicals 17.1 Mn T
Other use 8.8 Mn T
Food use
Chemicals
21
New Biodiesel
Programme in Brazil:
B7 to be implemented
probably in March 2014
This will imply a rise of
90-100 per month
Usage of soya oil for biodiesel may rise 0.7 Mn T
in 2014,
requiring sharply higher
soybean crush
2009
1418
Feeds toc k
S oy a oil. .
Tallow . . .
Cotton oil .
Other oils
1098
225
62
33
used
. . 2700* 2020*
..
505*
420*
..
90*
75*
..
85*
85
85*
85
ARGENTINA
2009
430*
5772
4560
..
2270*
1342*
..
..
..
1900*
200*
170*
1179
163*
E nding stoc ks
363*
363
260* 267
260
267* 515
515*
(a) M ainly food.(b) M ore s un oil used for food.
377*
377
300*
300
27 Nov 2013
22
1 7 O ils & F a ts : W o r ld D is a p p e a r a n c e
T o ta l U s a g e a n d A n n u a l C h a n g e (M n T )
1 95
1 80
1 65
1 50
1 35
1 20
1 05
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
W o rld D is a p p e a ra n c e
Annu al Chan ge
8 8 / 8 9 9 1 / 9 2 9 4 / 9 5 9 7 / 9 8 0 0 /0 1 0 3 /0 4 0 6 /0 7 0 9 /1 0
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
13/14
27 Nov 2013
EU-27. . . . . . . -0.20 *
+0.26
U.S.A. . . . . . . . +0.27 *
+0.49
Argentina . . . . +0.35 *
-0.93
Brazil . . . . . . . +0.76 *
+0.04
China,
. . me
. +1.08
*
+1.09at
therefor
somebody
toPR
pick
up tomorrow
Sharply higher usage
India
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
+0.83
*
+0.86
the airport
biodiesel in Brazil
Indonesia . . . +1.13 *
+0.95
Malaysia . . . . +0.14 *
+0.19
Others
.
.
.
.
.
.
+2
+2.38
38
*
+2
+2.11
11
S i factor
Swing
f t Indonesia
I d
i
World. . . . . . . +6.73 *
+5.06
-0.33
+1.19
+0.53
+0.15
+1.04
+0.75
+0.99
-0.11
+2 59
+2.59
+6.79
-0.87
+0.90
+0.55
+0.60
+1.09
+0.48
+1.02
+0.08
+2 41
+2.41
+6.26
+0.93
-0.13
+0.79
+0.88
+1.38
+0.73
+0.60
-0.10
+2 12
+2.12
+7.21
27 Nov 2013
23
Concluding Remarks
27 Nov 2013
Soya Oil
Rape
p Oil
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
October / September
27 Nov 2013
24
55
53
51
49
47
45
w.heinz@oilworld.de,
k.hildmann@oilworld.de
Dec 2013
50-day moving average
43
41
39
37
Nov DecJan13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
Daily futures from 2 Nov 2012 until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
950
400
900
200
850
700
650
Jun13
600
-600
-800
Jly
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Daily prices and basis from 3 June until 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
25
925
900
there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
the875
airport
850
825
Aug 1 Aug15
Sep 2 Sep16Sep26
Oct17 Nov 1
Nov26
1550
1450
1350
p
to cur- 1250
Demand response
rent huge price premiums
1150
higher than the losses
done by the terrible there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at
1050
typhoon Haiyan
the airport
950
850
750
Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
Oct Nov
Daily prices from 1 March 2013 till 26 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
26
10
Production
Demand
8
6
4
2
0
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
O ct o b er / Se pt em be r
27 Nov 2013
10
Production
Ending stocks
0
-2
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Oc tob er / Se pt em ber
27 Nov 2013
27
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Stocks (Mn T)
Stocks/Usage (%)
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Th latest
The
l t t low
l
was much
h 1000
above those of preceding
cycles. But veg.oil prices 800
moved to a higher
600
plateau since 2007.
Weakness in crude
prices and
mineral oil p
slow down of biodiesel
production (e.g. USA) are
potential bearish factors
400
200
0
72
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
'13
28
Thank You
for Your Kind Attention !
If I can be of assistance to you in the future, you are invited to
contact me any time.
More details and background information are given in the Oil World
Weekly & Monthly Reports, which can all be obtained from the
Internet.
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
27 Nov 2013
27 Nov 2013
29