A.

Bacgrounds
Bank is a financial institution that is very important in running the
economy and trade. People hope that bank is always running healthy
because the want their money is safe. Banks are also expected to perform
activities of credit and various financial services that can serve the needs
and launched a payment system mechanism for all sectors of the economy.
By giving credit to some sectors of the economy, bank is also expected to
ease the flow of goods and services from producers to consumers.
Islamic banking is kind of bank, It has same function with another
bank that is as intermediary institution. There are two kinds of Islamic
bank that are Islamic Commercial Bank (BUS) and Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS). The first development of Islamic banking in Indonesia is marked
by the establishment of Bank Muamalat Indonesia in 1992.
Islamic bank has three common activities that are funding money,
lending money and doing services. Forms of bank lending are based on
Islamic principles, the most well-known transaction are mudarabah,
musyarakah and murabahah. Murabahah is the sale of items by the
institution a customer for a pre-agreed selling price which includes a preagreed profit mark-up over its cost price, this having been specified in the
customers promise to purchase (AAOIFI, 2010:136). Here is a table of
lending accumulation and distribution of Islamic banking.
Table 1.1 Islamic Banking Lending Distribution, January 2016

Transaction
Profit Sharing Financing

Amount
(Billions Rupiah)

75,063
a. Profit sharing Financing to Non Banks
74,107
1. Mudharabah
14,469
2. Musyarakah
59,638
3. Others
b. Profit sharing Financing to Other Banks
956
1. Mudharabah
854
2. Musyarakah
102
3. Others
Receivables/Acceptables
126,768
a. Receivables from Non Banks
126,761
1. Murabahah
122,287
2. Qardh
3,706
3. Istishna'
769
b. Receivables from Other Banks
7
1. Murabahah
7
2. Qardh
3. Istishna'
Ijarah including Leasing receivables
10,357
Source: Statistik Perbankan Syariah OJK, 2016
In the table above, the most widely distributed lending is murabahah
financing by Islamic banks. Proven that over the years more distributed
than other financing. So that, Islamic banks also keep trying further
enhanced and maintained in the distribution of murabaha. Murabaha

financing assessed more easily and does not require sophisticated analysis
as well as profitable.
Moreover, when we did an internship in Indonesia Financial Services
Authority (OJK) we got information from one of Islamic banking
supervisor. He said that Islamic banks actually often force musyarakah
financing and change the transaction with murabahah. He said for
example, on Islamic bank in Yogyakarta offered murabahah transaction to
house Developer Company, actually in normal condition bank should offer
musyarakah contract to the developer but bank chose murabahah contract
otherwise. Why do banks do that? He said the answer is to avoid risk,
because murabahah contract is less risky than other lending forms. To
make it more sense, here is a table of Non-Performing financing ratio
based the form of financing:
Table 1.2 Islamic Bank Transaction and The NPF

Transaction and The NPF

Amount (Billion
IDR)
74,10

1. Profit Sharing Financing

7
3,91

NPF

a. Mudharabah
NPF
b. Musyarakah
NPF

14,46
9
33
9
59,63
8
3,57
4

c. Other Profit Sharing

Financing
NPF

126,76

2. Receivables/Acceptables
a. Murabahah
NPF
b. Qardh

1
122,28
7
6,01
4
3,70
6

NPF
c. Istishna'
NPF

13
6
76
9
1
9

Source: Statistik Perbankan Syariah OJK, 2016

From the table above, if we make a comparison between the amount
of financing and the amount of NPF, we will know that murabaha has the
biggest lending form and also has bigger ratio in NPF (with 4.91%) than
qardh (with 3.6%), istishna(with 2.6%) and mudharabah (with 2.34%) .
This is why we choose NPF as independent variable and the volume of
murabahah financing as dependent variable.
There are many factors that can increase or decrease the volume of
murabahah financing. One of that is profit sharing; some relevant
researches that we have found show a gap. The research by Pramono
(2013) mentions that profit sharing has negative influence outcome
significantly to the Islamic bank financing. In other hand, research by
Andraeny (2011) shows that the level of profit sharing significant positive
influence on profit sharing-based financing. This is way we choose
Equivalent of Profit Sharing as Moderating variable.
Based on these descriptions in the backgrounds, it is necessary to
study how the relationship of banking balance sheet variable,NPF, and
macroeconomics variable, BI Rate, against the volume of Murabaha
Financing in Indonesia Islamic Commercial Bank (BUS) Sharia Business
Unit (UUS) and Sharia Rural Bank (BPRS) for period January, 2015 to
January, 2016 .

B. Research Questions
4

Based on the introduction above, the problem can be formulated as

follows:
a. Does Non-Performing financing have significant relationship with
the volume of Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank
(BUS), Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural
Bank (BPRS)?
b. Does BI Rate have significant relationship with the volume of
Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia
Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS)?
c. Does The Equivalent of Profit Sharing have significant
relationship with the volume of Murabaha financing in Comercial
Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and Financing
of Sharia Rural Bank (BPRS)?
d. Does Non-Performing financing that is moderated by Ekuivalent
Profit Sharing have significant relationship with the volume of
Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia
Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS)?
e. Does Bi Rate that is moderated by Ekuivalent Profit Sharing have
significant relationship with the volume of Murabaha financing in
Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and
Financing of Sharia Rural Bank (BPRS)
C. Research Objectives

Based on the problems that have been formulated above, then the
objectives of this research are:
a. This research intends to answer the question Does NonPerforming financing have significant relationship with the
volume of Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS),
Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS)
b. This research intends to answer the question Does BI Rate have
significant relationship with the volume of Murabaha financing in
Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and
Financing of Sharia Rural Bank (BPRS)
c. This research intends to answer the question Does The Equivalent
of Profit Sharing have significant relationship with the volume of
Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia
Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS)
d. This research intends to answer the question Does NonPerforming financing that is moderated by Ekuivalent Profit
Sharing have significant relationship with the volume of
Murabaha financing in Comercial Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia
Business Unit (UUS) and Financing of Sharia Rural Bank
(BPRS)

e. This research intends to answer the question Does BI Rate that is

moderated by Ekuivalent Profit Sharing have significant
relationship with the volume of Murabaha financing in Comercial
Islamic Bank (BUS), Sharia Business Unit (UUS) and Financing
of Sharia Rural Bank (BPRS)
D. Research Benefit
This research is useful for
1. For Authors
a. Increase knowledge in the field of Islamic Macro-financial,
islamaic banking development startegy.
b. Increase knowledge about Non-Performing financing, Islamic
Banking Risk, Profit Sharing System.
c. Improve scientific thinking pattern on the author.
2. For Government and Indonesia Financial System Authority
a. This research has a big goal, we hope that this research can give
good suggestion to banking policy maker especially Indonesia in
developing islamic bank in financing strategy.
3. For readers and other next authors
a. Add useful information about Non-Performing financing, Islamic
Banking Risk, Profit Sharing System.
b. Can be used as material for further research.
4. For Academic Purposes
a. The results are expected to contribute the study of knowledge.
b. Can be used as a subsequent research.
E. Literature Review
1. Non-Performing financing
Non-Performing financing is same with non-performing loan. The
basic thing that makes it different is Non-Performing financing is identic
with Islamic Banking while non-performing loan is identic with
Conventional Bank. NPLs are those whose interest and principal payments
are past due for more than 90 days or for which there is a good reason to

consider that these payments will never be made in full (Scardovi,

2016:10).
NPLs are a natural and unavoidable component of the balance sheet of
any bank, but following the financial crisis they have moved from being a
physiological element to becoming a pathological problem. Since 2008,
nonperforming loans have been an increasingly hot topic in the
international scene, due to their important and rising volume and their
impact on the economy as a whole, on the banking system and on its credit
supply (Scardovi, 2016:9). Based on this theory we conlude the hypotheses
as follows:
H1: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
Volume of Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H2: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H3: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
2.

Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank

Interest Rate
The concept of interest rate belongs to our every-day life and has

entered our minds as something familiar we know how to deal with. When
depositing a certain amount of money in a bank account, everybody
expects that the amount grows (at some rate) as time goes by. The fact that
lending money must be rewarded somehow, so that receiving a given
amount of money tomorrow is not equivalent to receiving exactly the same
amount today, is indeed common knowledge and wisdom (Brigo and
Mercurio, 2006:2).
3. Profit Sharing Concept

The profit-sharing/loss-sharing concept implies a direct concern for

the profitability of the physical investment on the part of the creditor (the
Islamic bank). Conventional banks are also concerned about profitability
of a project, because of concerns about potential default on the loan.
However, conventional banks emphasize receiving the interest payments
according to set time intervals, and so long as this condition is met, the
banks profitability is not directly affected by whether the project has a
particularly high or a low rate of return. In contrast, Islamic banks have to
focus on the return on the physical investment, because their own
profitability is directly linked to the real rate of return (Askari, Iqbal, &
Mirakhor, 2015: 201).
4. Murabahah Financing
Murabahah is kind of trade financing, There are many types of
murabahah transaction. murabahah which involves the customers
promise to purcase the items from the institution is called Murabahah to
the purchase orderer. By this it is distinguished from the normal types of
Murabahah which does not involve such a promise by the customer. The
murabahah to the purchases orderer is the sale of an items by the
institution a customer for a pre-agreed selling price which includes a preagreed profit mark-up over its cost price, this having been specified in the
customers promise to purchase (AAOIFI, 2010:136)
F. Relevant Researches
1. Aristantia Radis Agista (2015 ), Title: Analisis Pengaruh DPK,
CAR, NPF dan ROA terhadap pembiayaan di PT Bank Muamalat
Indonesia tbk. Periode 2007 2013. From the research, found that the

DPK, CAR, ROA NPF and simultaneously affect the financing. The
four variables are able to explain the variable financing amounted to
94.81%, and the balance of 5.19% is explained by other factors. Based
on t test, DPK and ROA variables significant effect on the financing of
the significance of t count equal to 0.0000 and 0.0377 (<0.05), while
the variable CAR and NPF t significance of 0.2798 and 0.8082 (>
0.05) so that no significant effect on the variable financing.
2. Armaiyanti (2014), Title: Pengaruh Simpanan, Spread Bagi Hasil,
Dan

Rnnon

Performing

Financing

Terhadap

Pembiayaan

Mudharabah Pada Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia. Multiple

regression analysis was employed to analysis data. The result show
variable of deposits, spread profit sharing, and non performing
financing are effect simultaneously to the Mudharabah financing.
For partial results, deposits, spread profit sharing, and non
performing financing are not effect to Mudharabah financing. Based
this research we conclude 3 hypotheses these are:
H1: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H2: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H3: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank
3. Devki Prasasti (2014), Title: Pengaruh Financing To Deposit Ratio,
Non Performing Financing, Spread Bagi Hasil Dan Tingkat Bagi

10

Hasil Terhadap Pembiayaan Bagi Hasil (Studi Pada Bank Umum

Syariah Di Indonesia Periode 2008 2013). The results showed
that the coefficient of determination through the four test variables:
Financing to Deposit Ratio, Non Performing Ratio, equivalent rate
of profit sharing and spread profit sharing can explain the variation
in the dependent variable for profit and loss sharing financing by
89% while the rest is explained by other causes beyond the research
variables . Four variables simultaneously affect the results because
the financing for the significance level of less than 0.05. From the
partial results only variable non-performing ratio has negative
significant affect to profit and loss sharing financing, while the
other three variables Financing to Deposit Ratio, equivalent rate of
profit sharing and spread profit sharing have positive significant
affect to profit and loss sharing financing.
4. Prastanto (2013), Title: Pengaruh Financing To Deposit Ratio
(FDR), Non Performing Financing (NPF), Debt To Equity Ratio
(DER), Quick Ratio (QR), Dan Return On Equity (ROE) Terhadap
Pembiayaan Murabahah Pada Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia.
The research show that FDR, NPF, DER, QR, and ROE
simultaneously affect to murabahah financing. The influence of the
five independent variables for financing amounted to 39.5% and the
remaining 60.5% is influenced by other variables outside of the
study. For partial results, FDR variables negatively affect
murabahah financing. NPF variable does not affect the murabahah

11

financing. As for the variable ROA, CAR, and equivalent rate of

profit sharing positive effect of murabahah financing.
5. Erge Etem Hakan and Arslan Bengul Gulumser (2011), Title:
Impact of Interest Rates on Islamic and Conventional Banks: The
Case of Turkey. It is theoretically expected that the Islamic banks,
relying on interest-free banking, shall not be affected by the interest
rates; however, in concurrence with the previous studies, the article
finds that the Islamic banks in Turkey are visibly influenced by
interest rates. Based on this research we conclude these hypotheses:
H1: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H2: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H3: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank
6. Radiah Abdul Kader and Yap Kok Leong (2009). Title: The Impact
of Interest Rate Changes on Islamic Bank Financing. This study
investigates the impact of interest rate changes on the demand for
Islamic financing in a dual banking system. Theoretically, any
change in the interest rate would lead customers who are guided by
the profit motive to substituteIslamic financing for conventional
bank loans and vice versa. Using monthly data from 1999 to 2007,
the study found that any increase in the base lending rate would
induce customers to obtain financing from Islamic banks and vice

12

versa. The study concludes that because customers are profit

motivated, Islamic banks in the dual system are exposed to interest
rate risks despite operating on interest free principles.
7. Solarin Sakiru Adebola, Wan Sulaiman Wan Yusoff dan Jauhari
Dahalan (2011). Title: The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables On
Islamic Banks Financing In Malaysia. The study investigates the
impact of conventional bank interest rate on the volume of
financing of Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period spanning
2006:12 to 2011:3. Omitted variable bias is provided for, by
including several control variables such as production index, real
effective exchange rate, price index and stock market index as
additional explanatory variables. The relationship among the
variables is examined with the ARDL approach to cointegration.
Findings suggest the existence of one long runrelationship among
the variables. Furthermore, the study shows that interest rate
significantly affects Islamic banks financing Malaysia. This is taken
to mean that Islamic banks financing is complementary rather than
substitute

to

conventional

banks

financing.

Hence,

it

is

recommended that Islamic banks in Malaysia should accommodate

more profit and loss products in order to be more interest-free.
8. Liza Marwati Mohd Yusoff, Aisyah Abdul Rahman dan Norazlan
Alias (2001) Title: Interest Rate and Loan Supply: Islamic Versus
Conventional Banking System. This paper attempts to explore the
effect of interest rate 011 loan supply of Islamic banking alld

13

Convemional banking system. The analysis segregated the Islamic

and COllvellfional banking system imo commercial bank, finance
company alld merchant bank. Overnight alld 3 month Klibor are
llsed as interest proxy. Unit root test, Granger Causality test, Akaike
Information Criterion and Regression analysist are IIsed in the
study. The results of Granger Causality test indicate that the growth
of overnight Klibor causes changes in the growth of Islamic and
Conventional loan of Mercham Banks significantly and from the
regression analysis, it is confirm that Islamic and Conventional loan
growth of merchant bank are significantly positive related to
overnight Klibor.
G. Hipotesis
From all of the descriptions that we have written in the sections above
we can make some following hypotheses:
H1: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
Volume of Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H2: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H3: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H4: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H5: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H6: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H7: Non-Performing financing has significant relationship with the
Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank

14

H8: BI Rate has significant relationship with the Volume of

Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank
H9: Equivalent of Profit Sharing has significant relationship with
the Volume of Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank
H10: Non-Performing financing that is moderated by Equivalen
Profit Sharing has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Islamic Comercial Bank
H11: BI Rate that is moderated by Equivalen Profit Sharing has
significant relationship with the Volume of Murabaha Financing in
Islamic Comercial Bank
H12: Non-Performing financing that is moderated by Equivalen
Profit Sharing has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Sharia Business Unit
H13: BI Rate that is moderated by Equivalen Profit Sharing has
significant relationship with the Volume of Murabaha Financing in
Sharia Business Unit
H14: Non-Performing financing that is moderated by Equivalen
Profit Sharing has significant relationship with the Volume of
Murabaha Financing in Sharia Rural Bank
H15: BI Rate that is moderated by Equivalen Profit Sharing has
significant relationship with the Volume of Murabaha Financing in
Sharia Rural Bank
H. Research Framework
Berdasarkan tema yang kami angkat di atas, maka dapat disimpulkan
kerangka penelitian sebagai berikut:
NPF

BI Rate

Murabaha
Financing
Volume

15

Moderating Variable
Equivalent PS

Gambar 1.1 Kerangka Penelitian

I.
1.

Research Methodology
Type of Investigation
This research is using causal study. Causal study is a study in which

the researcher wants to delineate the cause of one or more problems

(Sekaran and Bougie, 2009:135).
2. Population And Sample
a. Population
Population includes all possible observation about which we would
like to know something (Nolan and Heinzen, 2008:3). In this research the
population is all Islamic Financial Institution.
b.

Sample
A sample is a subset of the units in a population (Bowerman and

OConnell, 2007: 4). In this research we choose purposive sampling or

judgmental sampling. Purposive sampling is a type of non-probability
sampling in which you select the units to be observed on the basis of your
own judgment about which ones will be the most useful (Babbie,
2004:183). And in this research we choose Islamic Comercial Bank in
Indonesia, Sharia Business Unit in Indonesia, and Sharia Rural Bank in
Indonesia.
3. Data-Collection Method
a. Time Series Data
A time series is a time-oriented or chronological sequence of
observations on a variable of interest (Montgomery, Jennings, &Kulahci,

16

2015: 2). In this research we use data that is collected from Indonesia
Financial Services Authority (OJK), Bank of Indonesia (BI) etc.
b. Library Resource
Library resource is Research data and information that are obtained
from published sources such as books, researches, and other reading
materials (Supardi, 2005:34)
4. Measurement
Level of measurement dictates the calculations that can be done to
summarize and present the data. It will also determine the statistical test
that should be performed (Lind, Marchal and Wathen, 2008:9). In this
research; non-perfoming finance, BI Rate, Equivalen Profit Sharing and
the volume of Murabaha financing data are classified as ratio scale. The
Ratio scale is the highest level of measurement, it has all characteristics of
interval level, but, in addition the point 0 is meaningful and the ratio
between two numbers is meaningful. Examples of ratio scale of
measurement include wages and unit of production (Lind, Marchal and
Wathen, 2008: 13).
5. Variables
Variables in this research are:
1. Independent Variable
Independent variable is a predictor variable that can be used to
describe, predict, or control variable dependent (Bowerman and
OConnell, 2007:107). In this research we use two independent
variables; Non-Performing financing, and BI Rate.
2. Dependent Variable
A dependent variable is a type of variable whose values are
dependent on the values taken by the other variables and their
relationship. Generally in relational studies, a variable is influenced/

17

affected by other related variable (Sahu, 2013:36). In this research we

choose the volume of Murabaha financing as Dependent Variable.
3. Moderating Variable
The moderating variable is one that has a strong contingent effect
on the independent variable dependent variable relationship. That is,
the presence of a third variable (the moderating variable) modifies the
original relationship between the independent and the dependent
variables (Sekaran, 2003:91) In this research we choose Equivalent of
Profit Sharing as moderating variable.
6.

Systematic Writing
To find out the description of the contents and facilitate the reader in

understanding the systematic writing of this study, we submit the

following explanation:
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION
In this chapter we will discuss Background, Problem Formulation,
Objectives, Benefits Research and Systematics Writing.
CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW
This chapter discusses the theory, Assessing Review Previous research,
hypothesis, Concept Framework Research.
CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODS
In this chapter we will discuss the Population Sample, Data, and Data
Analysis Techniques.
CHAPTER IV DATA ANALYSIS
This chapter discusses the Descriptive Analysis, Analysis Hypothesis
Testing.
CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS
This chapter discusses the conclusions, suggestions, and limitations of
the study. This study was accompanied by a bibliography and a list of
attachments which include a description of the study sample and the
results of IBM SPSS Statistics 23 output and Eviews Student Lite 9.5.

18

7. Test of Stationarity
Montgomery, Jennings, &Kulahci (2015: 329) said that thestationarity or
unit root of a time series is related to its statistical properties in time. That is,
in the more strict sense, stationary time series exhibits similar statistical
behavior in time and this is often characterized as a constant probability
distribution in time. However, it is usually satisfactory to consider the first two
moments of the time series and define stationarity (or weak stationarity) as
follows:
i.
ii.

The expected value of the time series does not depend on time and
The auto covariance function defined as Cov(yt, yt+k) for any lag k is
only a function of k and not time; that is, y(k) = Cov(yt, yt+k).

In this research we use Augmented DickeyFuller for the test type.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is a test test with up to twelve lags of the
dependent variable in a regression equation on the raw data series with a
constant but no trend in the test equation (Brooks, 2014: 370).
In this case, if the test statistic is not more negative than the critical value,
so the null hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected. If the test statistic is
more negative than the critical value and hence the null hypothesis of a unit
root in the first differences is convincingly rejected (Brooks, 2014: 371-372).

8. Multiple Regression
In this research, we include two independent variables, one dependent
variable and one moderating variable, so we use Multiple Regression to
analyze that. Multiple regressions is a statistical technique through which one

19

can analyze the relationship between a dependent or criterion variable and a

set of independent or predictor variables. As a statistical tool, multiple
regressions are often used to accomplish three objectives:
a. To find the best prediction equation for a set of variables, that is,
given X and Y (the predictors), what is Z (the criterion variable)?
b. To control for confounding factors in order to assess the
contribution of a specific variable or set of variables, that is,
identifying independent relationships.
c. To find structural relationships and provide explanations for
seemingly complex multivariate relationships, such as is done in
path analysis (Ho, 2014:293).
The results in this research will be interpreted with:
i.
Prediction Equation
The prediction equation is Y = A + BX where Y is the
predicted dependent variable, A is the constant, B is the
unstandardized regression coefficient, and X is the value of
the predictor variable. The relevant information for
constructing

least-squares

regression

(prediction)

equation will be presented in the Coefficients table (Ho,

ii.

2014: 238).
Evaluating the Strength of the Prediction Equation
A measure of the strength of the computed equation is Rsquare, sometimes called the coefficient of determination.
R-square is simply the square of the multiple correlation
coefficients listed under R in the Model Summary table,
and represents the proportion of variance accounted for in
the dependent variable by the predictor variable. In a simple

20

regression such as this, where there is only one predictor

variable, the multiple R is equivalent to the simple R (Ho,
2014: 238).
The ANOVA table presents results from the test of the null
hypothesis that R-square is zero. An R-square of zero
indicates no linear relationship between the predictor and
iii.

the dependent variable (Ho, 2014: 238).

Identifying and Independent Relationship
The Coefficients table presents the standardized Beta
coefficient between the predictor variable and the
dependent variable. The Beta coefficient is shown to be
positive and statistically significant at the 0.001 level (Ho,

2014: 238).
The hypothesis tests that will be used in this research are:
i.
A special type of hypothesis test: the t-ratio
Based on Brooks (2014: 111) recall that the
formula under a test of significance approach to
hypothesis testingusing a t -test for the slope
parameter was:

with the obvious adjustments to test a hypothesis

about the intercept. If the test is i.e. a test that
the population parameter is zero against a twosided alternative, this is known as a t ratio test.
Since = 0, the expression above collapses to:

21

Thus the ratio of the coefficient to its standard

error, given by this expression,is known as the tii.

ratio or t-statistic.
Testing multiple hypotheses the F-test
The t -test was used to test single hypotheses, i.e.

hypotheses involving only one coefficient. But what if it is

of interest to test more than one coefficient simultaneously?
For example, what if a researcher wanted to determine
whether a restriction that the coefficient values for 2 and 3
are both unity could be imposed, so that an increase in
either one of the two variables x2 or x3 would cause y to rise
by one unit? The t -testing framework is not sufficiently
general to cope with this sort of hypothesis test. Instead, a
more general framework is employed, centering on an Ftest. Under the F-test framework, two regressions are
iii.

required (Brooks, 2014: 139).

Goodness of fit statistics
It is desirable to have some measure of how well the
regression model actually fits the data. In other words, it is
desirable to have an answer to the question, how well does
the model containing the explanatory variables that was
proposed actually explain variations in the dependent
variable? Quantities known as goodness of fit statistics

22

(Brooks, 2014: 151). The goodness of fit statistics test that

will be used in this research is Adjusted R2. According to
Brooks (2014: 155)he noted that in order to get around the
second of these three problems, a modification to R 2is often
made which takes into account the loss of degrees of
freedom associatedwith adding extra variables. This is
known adjusted R2, which is definedas:

So if an extra regressor (variable) is added to the model, k

increases and unless R2increases by a more than off-setting
amount, adjusted R2 will actually fall. Hence adjusted R2
canbe used as a decision-making tool for determining
whether a given variable shouldbe included in a regression
model or not, with the rule being: include the variableif
adjusted R2 rises and do not include it if adjusted R2 falls.
9. Moderated Regression Analysis
Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) is a specific Multiple linear
regression application where the regression equation contains elements of
interaction or multiplication of two or more independent variables (Liana,
2009: 97). In this study Moderated Regression Analysis was used to answer
the research the 10th until 15th hypothesis.
10. Test of Assumption
a. Multicollinearity

23

Multicollinearity is an often encountered statistical phenomenon in which

two or more independent variables in a multiple regression model are highly
correlated. In its most severe case (if the correlation between two independent
variables is equal to 1 or 1) multicollinearity makes the estimation of the
regression coefficients impossible. In all other cases it makes the estimates of
the regression coefficients unreliable (Sekaran and Bougie, 2009:369).There
are two possible of multicollinearity; perfect multicollinearity and near
multicollinerity.
Aperfect multicollinearity occurs when there is an exact relationship
between two or more variables. In this case, it is not possible to estimate all of
the coefficients in the model. Perfect multicollinearity will usually be
observed only when the same explanatory variable is inadvertently used twice
in a regression. In other hand, near multicollinearity is much more likely to
occur in practice, and would arise when there was a non-negligible, but not
perfect, relationship between two or more of the explanatory variables. Note
that a high correlation between the dependent variable and one of the
independent variables is not multicollinearity (Brooks, 2014: 217).In this
research we are looking at the matrix of correlations between the individual
variables to detect the multicollinearity.
b. Heteroscedasticity
The term homo means same and the term scedastic means scatter. Hence
the errors are assumed to be homoscedastic or have the same scatter. The
alternative is that the errors do not follow the same pattern; hence, they are
heteroscedastic (Hoffmann, 2010:184). In this research we use Goldfeld

24

Quandt test. GoldfeldQuandt test is simply the ratio of the two residual
variances where the larger of the two variances must be placed in the
numerator The test statistic is distributed as an F(T1 k, T2 k) under the null
hypothesis, and the null of a constant variance is rejected if the test statistic
exceeds the critical value (Brooks, 2014: 182-183).
c. Normality
There are several important conditions that SEM (Structural Equation
Modeling) assumes for its statistical estimation process. Most of the SEM
estimation methods (e.g., maximum likelihood) assume multivariate normality
of the sample data. Although it is not always practical to examine all aspects
of multivariate normality (e.g. Normal distribution of all the univariate
variables; normal distribution of all jointed pairs of variables; and linearity of
all bivariate scatter plots), much of multivariatenonnormality can be detected
by examining univariate distributions (Strang, 2015:155).The normality
assumption is required in order to conduct single or joint hypothesis tests
about the model parameters (Brooks, 2014: 209).
In this research we use the BeraJarque (hereafter BJ) test. BJ uses
the property of a normally distributed random variable that the
entire distribution is characterized by the first two moments
the mean and the variance. A normal distribution is not skewed
and is defined to have a coefficient of kurtosis of 3. It is possible
to define a coefficient of excess kurtosis, equal to the coefficient
of kurtosis minus 3; a normal distribution will thus have a
coefficient of excess kurtosis of zero (Brooks, 2014: 209).

25

d. Linearity
SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) estimation methods also assume all
relationships among the study variables to be linear and homogeneous. In fact,
SEM techniques take into account only linear associations among the
variables and, thus, nonlinear effects not represented in the estimation process
could result in underestimating the extant strength of the association. Although
it is difficult to assess linearity and homoscedasticity of all relationships
among the variables, it is desirable that researchers examine bivariate scatter
plots to check if the linearity assumption has been met in the data (Strang,
2015:155).
In this research we use Ramseys RESET test. Ramseys RESET test is a
non-linearity test, or a test for misspecification of functional form, i.e. a
situation where the shape of the regression model estimated is incorrect for
example, where the model estimated is linear but it should have been nonlinear (Brooks, 2014: 220). In this case, if the t , F and 2 test show a
significant value it can be said that there is any evidence for non-linearity in
the regression equation.
e. Autocorrelation
There are several sources of autocorrelation in time series regression data.
In many cases, the cause of autocorrelation is the failure of the analyst to
include one or more important predictor variables in the model. For example,
suppose that we wish to regress the annual sales of a product in a particular
region of the country against the annual advertising expenditures for that
product. Now the growth in the population in that region over the period of

26

time used in the study will also influence the product sales. If population size
is not included in the model, this may cause the errors in the model to be
positively auto correlated, because if the per capita demand for the product is
either constant or increasing with time, population sizeis positively correlated
with product sales (Montgomery, Jennings, & Kulahci, 2015: 177).
In this research we use BreuschGodfrey test.BreuschGodfrey test is a
test for autocorrelation of any order in the residuals from an estimated
regression model, based on an auxiliary regression of the residuals on the
original explanatory variables plus lags of the residuals. In this case, the null
hypothesis of no autocorrelation should be rejected if the p-values are below
0.05 (Brooks, 2014: 208).
11. Research Plan
To make our research is getting more effective and more efficient;
we create a schedule or time table for our research planning as follows:
Table 1.3
Research Plan
Month
No

Plan

2016
1

Proposal

Collecting Data

Data Analysis

Arrange the Research Paper

April
2 3

May
2 3

27

Finishing and Collecting Research

Paper

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