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MODULE NUMBER
MBA 2006
INDIVIDUAL PROJECT
The influence of hedge funds on share prices
SUPERVISOR
Michael A.H. Dempster
Hand in date
Friday 31st August 2007
10901
(Excluding Appendices and Bibliography)
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There are, however, a few occasions where hedge funds evidently did have a
directly attributable (short-term) influence on share prices so that overall the
report concludes that while hedge fund’s influence on German shares is weaker
than in the U.S., in some cases hedge funds are able to make a difference.
2
―Are powerful fundamental factors at work to
keep the market as high as it is now or to push it even
higher, even if there is a downward correction? Or is
the market high only because of some irrational
exuberance— wishful thinking on the part of
investors that blinds us to the truth of our situation?‖
Robert J. Shiller
3
Abstract ................................................................................................................. 2
1 Introduction................................................................................................. 5
1.1 Background.............................................................................................. 5
1.2 Objective .................................................................................................. 8
2 Hedge Funds ............................................................................................... 8
2.1 What is a Hedge Fund ............................................................................ 9
2.2 Types of Hedge Funds .......................................................................... 10
2.3 Activist Hedge Funds ........................................................................... 11
2.4 Implications for the Study .................................................................... 12
3 Share Prices................................................................................................ 13
3.1 Common Valuation Methods ............................................................... 13
3.2 Psychological Effects ............................................................................. 14
3.3 Random Walk ........................................................................................ 15
3.4 Can Hedge Funds Influence Share Prices? .......................................... 15
4 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................... 19
4.1 Methodology ......................................................................................... 20
4.2 The Hypothesis...................................................................................... 24
4.3 Analysis of 46 Hedge Fund Related Events ........................................ 26
4.4 Findings ................................................................................................. 32
5 Conclusion ................................................................................................. 33
References ........................................................................................................... 36
Appendix ............................................................................................................ 39
A. Hedge Fund Events............................................................................... 39
B. Hedge Fund Event Data ....................................................................... 41
C. Performance Graphs ............................................................................. 42
D. Hedge Fund List .................................................................................... 57
E. Hedge Fund Managers ......................................................................... 61
F. Hedge fund strategy categories (as per TASS database) .................... 62
4
Hedge funds have already been around for over half a century. The first
hedge fund was founded by Alfred W. Jones in 1949 and it was called a hedge
fund because Jones hedged his long positions through using short positions. Jones
idea was to outperform the market while at the same time reducing his risk
through hedging and therefore he called his investment fund a “hedge fund”.
Nowadays hedge funds are widely known as very risky investments. The famous
hedge fund manager Mario Gabelli wrote in 2002: "Today, if asked to define a hedge
fund, I suspect most folks would characterize it as a highly speculative vehicle for
unwitting fat cats and careless financial institutions to lose their shirts" (McWhinney,
2005). In fact, research has shown that hedge funds indeed are highly speculative
and risky. Research by the European Central Bank (Garbaravicius and Dierick,
2005) estimates that first year failure rates of hedge funds are in the range of 2%
and 4%. A more detailed study by Chany, Getmansky, et al. (2005) found an
annual attrition rate of 8.8% for the period 1994-2003. The found that the risk
involved differs for different investment strategies and goes up to 14.4% attrition
rate for managed futures strategy hedge funds. Further, they estimate the average
liquidation probability for funds in 2004 is over 11%, which is higher than the
historical unconditional attrition rate of 8.8%. With a yearly attrition rate of 11% it
is fair to say that hedge funds are indeed risky investment vehicles. In July 2006
the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) estimated that there were 8,800 hedge
funds, managing total assets of $1.2 trillion (Cox, 2006). With such large numbers
of hedge funds and high attrition rates it is not surprising that every year
hundreds of hedge funds are liquidated, yet once every few years, when a major
hedge fund collapses, such event is popularized in the news and the public gasps
in disbelieve at how such a large fund can collapse. Famous examples are Long
Term Capital Management in 1998 (which was probably the first time that many
people ever heard the term hedge fund), Tiger Funds in 2000 and very recently
Bear Stearns in 2007. Due to their high leverage and their sheer volumes (mostly
financed by leverage), financial distress of major hedge funds can cause an
avalanche, putting banks and private investors equally at risk. It is therefore of
little surprise that hedge funds receive an increasing amount of press coverage,
5
which, mostly reporting bad news, leads to ill feelings amongst the average
population.
12,000 $1,800
$1,600
Number of Hedge Funds
10,000
$1,400
Assets in billions
8,000 $1,200
$1,000
6,000
$800
4,000 $600
$400
2,000
$200
0 $-
1950 1971 1987 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
According to the International Herald Tribune hedge funds are controlling assets
worth $1.4 trillion (Dougherty, 2007). Alpha Research Inc. estimates that the
largest 100 hedge funds alone manage $1.1 trillion (Rose-Smith, 2006) and further
6
estimates project hedge funds to grow 300% over the next five years (Schiller,
2006). These numbers by themselves are quite impressive. Yet, more relevant is the
finding that 40% to 50% of all trade at the U.S. and U.K. stock exchanges is
conducted by hedge funds (Braun, 2007; Schiller, 2006; Atzler 2005b). Considering
the value of assets controlled by hedge funds, their predicted growth rate as well
as and their already high level of trade, it is apparent that hedge funds have a
significant influence on today’s financial markets.
Not surprisingly, most of the studies available on hedge fund activism and
its impact on corporate governance and on share prices are focusing on the United
States. The U.S. is the biggest financial market in the world with some of the
world’s biggest stock exchanges. Also, the majority of hedge funds is located in
the U.S. However, this doesn’t mean that hedge funds don’t operate globally. On a
global scale hedge funds “only” manage 5% of total global assets (Schiller, 2006),
but the biggest 100 hedge funds alone could completely buy Germany’s biggest 30
companies (the DAX30) and would still have spare money to spend (Süddeutsche
Zeitung, 2007). That’s of course only a hypothetical statement but recent estimates
show that 20%-30% of all German DAX and MDAX shares are owned by hedge
funds (Atzler, 2005a). This means that around one quarter of Germany’s biggest
companies is controlled by hedge funds.
Given the increase in hedge funds and the increase in assets managed by
hedge funds it is rational to assume that competition among hedge funds is
growing. Goetzmann and Roos argue that as a result of this increased competition
hedge funds are more and more investing in new regions and are using new
7
strategies. The overall goal that unites all hedge funds is that they are trying to
beat the market (Goetzmann and Ross, 2000). During the 1990s a lot of hedge
funds specialized in arbitrage trading (Goetmann and Ross, 2000), however, with
the increase in competition such arbitrage opportunities become more difficult to
find. As a result hedge funds are turning to alternative strategies, including hedge
fund activism (Klein and Zur, 2006) but they also invest more and more outside
the U.S, for example in Germany .
Since Franz Müntefering in his speech in 2005 called hedge funds “locusts”
hedge funds have gained significant attention by the German public. Müntefering
of course was not the initiator; he was only the catalyst that started a debate
throughout which hedge funds emerged as one of the great evils of the 21 st
century. This prompts the question if hedge funds in Germany are correctly brand
marked as locusts or whether they maybe even exert a positive influence on the
market as the above mentioned studies from the U.S. have found them to be.
I have explained that hedge funds have a quite substantial equity position in
the German financial market. Recent research on the U.S. market has shown that
hedge funds can have quite a positive impact on share prices and that their overall
influence is quite positive, whereas their image in Germany is that of short-term
investors who destroy companies like locusts.
In this paper I will explore the role that hedge funds in Germany really play.
I will verify if conclusions similar to those from U.S. studies can be drawn with
regards to the German market. More specifically, I will analyze if hedge fund
activity in Germany has a positive influence on share prices, i.e. if hedge funds,
through one way or another, increase the value of shares that they invest in.
Before diving into the analysis of the data I need to come back to the general
definition of hedge funds as this is relevant for the research. The objective of this
research is to analyze this impact of hedge funds on share prices, in particular for
the German market. I have already shown that in the public eye it is often difficult
to differentiate between hedge funds and private equity firms. Also, the objective
8
of this study would lead to conclude that this research needs to include all hedge
fund activities. However, I have already referred to the subset of hedge funds,
namely activist hedge funds that play an important role. In this section I will
define what activist hedge funds are and why I focus on them rather then
including all hedge funds. Before I get to this, there are two key points that require
clarification: first, what exactly are hedge funds, and, second, what different types
of hedge funds exist.
Ronald Lake, a practitioner working for a large hedge fund, defines hedge
funds based on merely two characteristics: ―(i) they are commingled pools that are
offered via private placements to a relatively limited number of institutions and
sophisticated investors, and (ii) the manager receives an incentive fee” (Lake, 2003). That,
as he admits himself, is a fairly loose definition but at the same time it is also very
precise. The problem with hedge funds is that they indeed need not share many
common characteristics and the way they are trying to beat the market differs
quite substantially. Brav et al. (2006) take a similar approach and also define hedge
funds by their key characteristics but they find four common characteristics: “(1)
they are pooled, privately organized investment vehicles; (2) they are administered by
professional investment managers; (3) they are not widely available to the public; and (4)
they operate outside of securities regulation and registration requirements”. Especially
the last point, that hedge funds operate outside of securities regulation has
recently been a point of great concern and at the same time, poses a challenge for
any hedge fund related research. Since hedge funds are not regulated, they are not
obliged to inform anyone of their existence. They don’t have to register with a
central body and therefore no central data source exists that lists all hedge funds.
9
Like all investment funds hedge funds aim to generate a return. Goetzmann
and Ross (2000) very nicely nailed this down to the point that the purpose of
hedge funds is to yield absolute returns above the benchmark of the riskless rate.
There are many ways hedge funds are trying to achieve this. The majority of
hedge funds describe themselves as long/short equity, which is close to what
Alfred Jones’s original concept of hedge funds stood for. Besides that, there are
many different approaches used to exploiting market opportunities. The TASS
database, which is still widely used by hedge fund managers, uses 11 broad
categories (see appendix for detailed definitions).
10
Multi-Strategy: Multi-Strategy is a combination of any of the above
strategies
Fund of Funds: The manager will invest in other hedge funds (at least two,
often more)
The above list is most likely not complete. In fact, the hedge fund market is
evolving quickly and once in a while new strategies appear such as risk arbitrage
(event related securities whose price differences imply different probabilities for
an event), and statistical arbitrage. There is also a special form of hedge funds
which could be classified as arbitrage or as event driven or as global macro but in
fact doesn’t quite fit into any of these categories and some refer to this category as
activist hedge funds.
Up until around 2000, most hedge funds profited from their ability to
identify and capture trading opportunities, mostly arbitrage opportunities
(Goetzmann and Ross, 2000). However, the rapid growth of the hedge fund
industry has made it more and more difficult for managers to identify and exploit
these arbitrage opportunities. As a result, many funds have turned to an
alternative strategy – hedge fund activism (and new regions such as emerging
markets) is just one example but one which is of high relevance to this research.
Klein et al. (2006) define hedge fund activism as a strategy “in which a hedge
fund purchases a 5 percent or greater stake in a publicly-traded firm with the stated intent
of influencing the firm’s policies”. I agree with their statement with the exception of
the 5% stake. The 5% stake is an arbitrary choice and the reason why they picked
5% is because that a 5% stake triggers a 13D filing to the SEC which makes their
research easier. There is simply no other reason. The key message however is that
activist hedge funds actively seek to influence the target firm.
In some cases, especially when facing strong opposition from the target’s
management, activist hedge funds form wolf packs or buy shareholder voting
rights through undisclosed transactions, for example through the stock lending
market (Hu and Black, 2006 and Christoffersen et al., 2006). Through such tactics
activist hedge funds are capable of influencing large international corporations of
11
which they otherwise had o means to accumulate a significant enough block of
shares (>5%) to exert enough influence.
The main leaning out of this is that activist hedge funds, while being a small
group, are the group of hedge funds which is most likely to have direct,
measurable impact on share prices, fundamentally for two reasons: First, it is their
strategy to increase the target’s share price through activism and second, they go
public about it which makes it easier to track and measure their influence.
Overall, there is neither a clear definition of hedge funds, nor a complete list,
and also there is no central record of the dealings of hedge funds. To a large
extend it is just not possible to track which hedge fund invested into which stocks
and when. This lack of data could be regarded as a considerable shortcoming to
this research, but I argue that to the extent that hedge funds trade on the market
anonymously, i.e. without anyone knowing when and into which stock they
invest, hedge funds are not any different from any other institutional investor
such as mutual funds. Arguably, they may have an impact due to the increased
volume of trade, e.g. the market is more, and there are fewer and smaller arbitrage
opportunities. However, overall, anonymously trading hedge funds act like other
institutional investors, which, as Karpoff (2001) and Barger (2006) have shown, are
unable to generate any abnormal returns despite their activist efforts. Therefore,
there should be no notable significant impact on share price movements
attributable to non-activist hedge funds1.
On the other hand, some hedge funds specialize in activism, i.e. they are
trying to actively influence the share price of certain stocks through different
means, primarily through putting pressure on management to initiate changes.
Such activist hedge funds do not act like normal, anonymous investors (Clifford,
2007; Boyson, 2007; Allaire et al. 2007). These activist hedge funds are those most
relevant for this research since they are explicitly aiming to increase share
performance.
1There is one exception though, namely small manipulations due to have trading and
rumours. Recently a claim has been made by an insider that hedge funds can and do
manipulate share prices as needed, i.e. if they have a short position they can manipulate
the price of the share to go down. Such claim hasn’t been substantiated yet and this kind of
exerted influence is beyond the scope of this research.
12
Finally, some private equity firms act similar to activist hedge funds. Since
many people in Germany can’t even tell the difference between the two and since
their actions are often alike, i.e. they buy blocks of shares in companies in order to
exert pressure onto them, I have included some private equity activism events in
my analysis as well.
Since in this study I focus on the influence of hedge funds on share prices it
is inevitable to take a small detour into the fundamentals of share prices. It is
important to understand what drives share prices in order to understand the
specifics of how a hedge fund could influence them.
While most shares are bound to deliver a return, they are not equally likely
to do so. Investments in share aren’t equally risky and since shares aren’t the only
possible investment form they compete amongst each other and against other
investments such as bonds. A reasonable investor who has a large number of
investments to choose from will require a premium for the risk he takes: The
higher the risk, the higher the required premium.
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assumptions on risk. As with all assumptions, an investor can never be certain
about any of them.
Like all other fundamental valuation methods the DDM and FCF valuation
models are calculating the value of an equity based on income streams, assuming
a yearly growth factor and discounting the income by a discount factor. The risk of
the equity return in these models is encapsulated in the discount rate. These
models may be overly simplistic and professional dealers are likely to rely on
much more sophisticated models, but the underlying flaws are still the same. It is
easy to see that expectations about income streams (regardless of whether they are
dividends or cash flows), about growth rates and about risk are all forward
looking assumptions and small changes to these assumptions often result in
significantly higher or lower valuations. More complex models may be more
sophisticated but they still rely on assumptions as input parameters. Quite often
the current market value is used as a reference point against which one’s own
valuations are benchmarked against. This is following one of the fundamental
theories that “the market” is efficient and that the bulk of buyers and sellers, when
in equilibrium, can’t be wrong. There is therefore a strong psychological (peer)
effect underlying most assumptions which normally biases towards the market
average.
Robert Shiller (2000), after analyzing the market of the 1990s, found that
prices are sustained not by real fundamental factors but by investor enthusiasm.
Many investors don’t buy shares because they believe in their real intrinsic value
or future dividend payments, but because they are certain they can sell the shares
to someone else at an even higher price. Simply speaking, “stock prices are driven by
a self-fulfilling prophecy based on a large cross section of investors” (Shiller, 2000).
Nowadays this effect is often referred to as the “greater fool” theory – there
is always a greater fool who will pay even more for the share. The greater fool
theory is also the reason behind stock market bubbles (Fisher and Statman, 2002).
14
If all investors relied on hard facts and fundamental evaluation methods than it
would be unlikely that large bubbles could ever exist.
In 1973 Burton Malkiel published his book “A Random Walk down Wall
Street” in which he introduced the “the random walk” theory. He suggested that a
blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal could pick a
portfolio which would perform just as well as that of an expert. What he meant by
this is that share prices seem to go up and down randomly. Over the long term the
market will work efficient but in the short term it is impossible to predict if the
price of a share will go up or down and hence it is not worse the time or money to
even try to outperform the market. Hedge funds managers of course can not, by
definition, agree to such theories since the sole purpose of a hedge fund to achieve
just that, namely to outperform the market. I mention this theory for three reasons:
1. If the random walk theory holds, then also hedge funds should, over the long
run, not be able to outperform the market. 2. If my research finds that shares of
firms targeted by hedge funds outperform the market, then that would trigger a
follow-up questions, namely if this is due to the hedge fund’s stock picking skill
(contravening the random walk theory), due to the influence of the hedge fund
(e.g. activism), or due to pure luck. 3. If my research finds that hedge funds do
influence share prices (i.e. hedge funds are found to be the reason for share prices
going up or down), than the share price movement would be proven to not be
totally random which would open up arbitrage opportunities. If hedge funds
investments into a share do have an influence, than such hedge fund deals, i.e. a
hedge fund investing in a particular share, could become the trigger for other
investors to also buy the same share since at that point it becomes likely that the
share price is going up (or down if the hedge fund influence is negative). Such
situation would than lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy since many investor
jumping onto the wagon would increase demand for the share, resulting in a
higher price.
15
that hedge funds do have an influence on share prices then this automatically
leads to another question: How is it possible that hedge funds influence the price
of a share? The share price, after all, is the equilibrium of buying and selling prices
which are based on assumptions around profitability, growth and risk. Common
theory would conclude that hedge funds ability to influence the price of a share
must stem from a direct influence on the underlying fundamentals (profitability,
growth, risk). If none of the fundamentals change than the share price shouldn’t
change, unless it’s a bubble. The question then is: Can hedge funds change the
underlying fundamentals?
If through activism a hedge fund could indeed make a firm more profitable,
i.e. generate more free cash flow and generate more growth, than that would
justify an increase in the share price. Klein et al. (2006) identify two strategies
through which hedge funds can improve the target firm’s performance. First,
hedge funds can alter the firm’s strategy, including the redirection of investments
to more profitable (and more risky?) projects but also by divestment, i.e. selling of
less-productive assets. Second, hedge funds can reduce agency cost by forcing the
firm to reduce its excess cash holdings which can be achieved by changing the
gearing, increasing dividends or paying extraordinary dividends or by buying
back shares. Jensen (1986) specifically suggests that a firm can reduce its agency
costs associated with excess cash by paying out dividends to shareholders or
increasing debt and interest payments to creditors.
Brav et al. (2006) find that the majority of activist hedge funds resemble
value investors, i.e. they target companies which they believe are undervalued.
They also find that the majority of hedge fund activism tends to fall into the
second of Klein and Zur’s two categories, i.e. they target general changes (e.g.,
payout policy, excess diversification), rather than firm-specific issues (e.g.,
operational difficulty, sales slump) (Brav et al., 2006) and quite often they succeed
with their plans, achieving, on average, 7%-10% abnormal return (Brav et al.,2006;
Klein et al., 2006; Boyson et al., 2007).
This means that in theory at least hedge funds are capable of improving a
firm’s performance, and that this would lead to higher share prices of the target
firm. However, there’s lack of evidence that hedge funds are achieving this in
16
practice. While there is evidence that hedge funds are associated with abnormal
returns of the shares, underlying performance of these firms isn’t really improving
as theory would expect. Brav et al. (2006) find that in two-thirds of all cases
activist hedge funds are successful in attaining their activist objectives (as stated in
their 13D filings) and they also find that hedge fund activism is associated with in
improvement in return (ROE) in the target firm. However, they find this
association to be weak and can’t confirm causality of the association. Zur et al.
(2006) can’t even find a slight improvement in the accounting performance of the
target firms. On the contrary they even find a decline in performance as measured
in ROE, ROA and EPS in the year after the activism. There is therefore little to no
evidence that hedge funds actually do improve target firm’s performance. Yet,
many studies do find that hedge funds activism is associated with a 7% to 10%
abnormal return of the target’s shares. These are two contravening facts which are
hard to reconcile. There must be another reason why hedge fund activism leads to
significant abnormal return. In fact, there are a couple of other factors which can
help explain these findings.
The first such factor is risk. As pointed out earlier investors demand a risk
premium for their investments and accordingly fundamental valuation methods
incorporate risk into the discount rate. Studies by Brav et al. and Zur et al. have
only measured the change in the firm’s performance such as ROE but they haven’t
considered risk. An increase of the share price could be explained by lower risk.
Reduction of agency cost, divestments, redirections of investments – all factors
which their studies founds that hedge funds were able to achieve – can all be
linked to potentially lower overall risk of the firm. For example divestments of
risky assets or risky operations would also decrease the overall business risk of the
firm. Reduced agency cost can be linked directly to better decision making which
can also result in lower overall risk. Maintaining the same ROE and the same
growth while lowering the risk (and thus the discount rate) would result in a
higher share price.
I don’t have any data to support this theory but at least it gives one feasible
explanation for the above discovered discrepancy.
Yet, there are two more factors to consider. Secondly, it has been shown that
hedge funds are responsible for up to 50% of all trade at the world’s major stock
17
exchanges (Braun, 2007; Schiller, 2006; Atzler 2005b; Campos, 2005). How trade
volumes increased over time can best be illustrated by a few examples. In 1960, the
average holding period for shares of a publicly listed company in the U.S. was
seven years. By 1992 the average holding period had shrunk to two years and by
2006 was down to only seven months (Odland, 2006). In other words, the average
annual share turnover for shares listed at the NYSE was:
12% in 1960
73% in 1987
86% in 1999
87% in 2005
NASDAQ figures are even higher, for example the shares of Amazon.com
turned over every seven days (Bratton, 2006). To a large extend these high levels
of turnover are attributed to hedge funds. Such increases in equity trade levels
certainly have a positive influence on the liquidity of the market, but there is also a
downside. Schiller (2006) found evidence that frequent trading caused by hedge
funds causes wild price fluctuations. There are reported cases of shares falling by
more than 30% in a single week after hedge funds had gone after the company.
Yet, there’s also the third additional factor through which hedge funds could
possibly influence share prices: Psychology. As already discussed, all fundamental
evaluation methods are forward looking and thus depending on expectations.
These expectations are all assumptions and no investor or analyst can be certain
that his assumptions are correct. If an investor sees that others are willing to pay a
higher price for a stock, than that investor may be inclined to review and “adjust”
his own assumptions which may then lead him to evaluate the share at a higher
price. Shiller (2000) concluded that “People are prodded into the market, for example, by
18
the constant suggestion of 'the moral superiority of those who invested well' and the ego-
diminishing envy stirred by hearing that others have earned more in the market than they
have in salary.” In other words, self-doubts and uncertainty paired with fear that
one’s own assumptions could be wrong and could be resulting a financial loss or
foregone gains lead to herd behaviour. Kiev (2002) simply boils it down to the fact
that staying objective is difficult and that investors are “consumed with anxiety, self-
doubt, and frustration”.
Hedge funds could use this to their advantage by luring other investors into
thinking that they know something which others do not know. Greed and self-
doubt and anxiety would lead not all but some investors to believe that they are
loosing out on a profitable opportunity, consequently they will buy shares as a
result of which the share price rises. A very nice illustration of such anxiety is a
very recent example from the German stock market where shares in Deutsche Post
AG climbed 2.4 percent merely based on a rumour that a hedge fund might be
building up a stake in Deutsche Post AG. According to Reuters (2007) traders
stated that “Deutsche Post is jumping on rumours that TCI has already bought 3 percent
of the company via the market” and “Obviously something is really cooking there. There
are big two institutions in the U.S. that have been buying in the past few weeks, I don't
know what their intentions are”. Whether the underlying motivation of the hedge
fund is to use the psychological factor to lift up the share price and achieve a quick
2.4 percent profit or if the hedge fund actually is interested in a long term
investment is hard to say but at the same time it is irrelevant. The fact that the
mere rumour of a hedge fund investing is sufficient to increase the share price is
proof that psychological factors play a considerable role and hedge fund could use
this to their advantage.
So far I have presented evidence based on research from the U.S. that activist
hedge funds are able to generate positive abnormal returns in target firms. I have
also shown that the same studies find little to no evidence that these abnormal
returns are related to real performance improvements of the firms. Finally, I have
provided theories that reconcile the above discrepancy, i.e. I have also outlined
19
how hedge funds are theoretically able to boost share prices without improving
the target firm’s performance.
The final part of my research looks at historic market data to give real
quantitative evidence of the influence of hedge funds on share prices. Since
extensive research was already carried out for the U.S. market I have focused on
the German market, which in many ways differs from the U.S. especially with
regards to shareholder value and corporate governance, both of which are
strongly linked to shareholder activism.
All of the above researchers have also relied on the Security Exchange
Commission’s (SEC) Edgar database which holds all Schedule 13D filings.
Although hedge funds are largely unregulated, section 13D of the Exchange Act of
1934 requires anyone who acquires more than five percent of a public company’s
20
shares to notify the SEC within ten days of crossing the five percent threshold,
resulting in a Schedule 13D filing2. With regards to this Act, hedge funds are
treated like any other investor and are thus equally required to file such disclosure
document which makes the Edgar database a valuable source of data.
However, unlike the Edgar database which keeps all filings, the German
database run by the BaFin only lists current ownership and filings related to them.
This means, it does not keep filings where, for example, a fund exceeds the 3%
threshold but later drops below it again. Once an investor drops below the 3%
threshold, old filings are deleted and no further record will be found in the
database. Since the BaFin only keeps records of current ownership structures,
historic findings are not available, which in the case of hedge funds who trade
frequently, is a considerable downside.
Given the lack of a central data source on hedge funds I used phased
approach to gather the relevant data.
I used four source of information to compile such a list. First, I used the
Thomson One Banker database which includes a deals section. The deals section
list transactions where one institution bought blocks of shares of another
company. I search the deals database for transactions where the target was a
German company and the buyer was classified with any of the following industry
2 This 5% threshold is the reason why Klein et al. refer to a 5% stake in their definition of
hedge fund activism
3 Available at: http://www.bafin.de/database/AnteileInfoWeb/
21
codes: SIC 6282, 6722, 6799, 7389; NAIC: 523910, 523920, VEIC: 9000, 9250,
9299.These industry codes cover financial institutions excluding retail banks. This
search already turned out some relevant deals as well as names of hedge funds
and their targets. Secondly I used the Factiva news database to search for news
relating to Germany (German and English language), including the words “hedge
fund”, “hedge fond” or “hedge-fond”. I noted down all news reports of hedge
funds buying, or intending to buy blocks or shares. I also recorded the names of
all reported hedge funds. Third I used various hedge fund related websites to
gather the names of the biggest, most active and known activist funds. Fourth: I
ran searches on the BaFin database using names of known targets and acquirers
which I had gathered from the previous three sources. The BaFin database would
give me current ownership structure which in some cases led to new names of
other hedge funds.
From all four sources together I was able to gather 400 names (including
synonyms) of hedge funds as well as 30 names of individual investors which own
or manage hedge funds. While this list isn’t exhaustive, it is very unlikely that any
major hedge fund that could have a significant influence on the market would be
left out from my list.
Phase two of the data gathering process was aimed at finding all relevant
German deals where any of these hedge funds or investors were involved. Again,
I turned to the Thomson One Banker database searching for any deals with
German targets where the buyer matched any of the 400 names. I also used the
Factiva news database to search for articles concerning Germany which mentioned
any of the 400 hedge fund names or any of the 30 individuals.
In phase three of the research I retrieved German market index data (DAX,
MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX) for the period from 1/1/2004 to 31/7/2007 from the
Datastream database. I also retrieved the share prices of all target companies
involved in those 46 deals for the same period. I then used the Osiris database to
generate lists of peer companies for each target (using the Osiris peer analysis
function) and for each peer retrieved share price information.
22
The final data was a comprehensive list of the German market index, share
prices of all involved target companies as well as share prices for all peers
(industry groups) for each target.
Based on research from the U.S. market (Brav et al.,2006; Klein et al., 2006;
Boyson et al., 2007) which showed that activist hedge fund on average deliver
abnormal returns of 7%-10%, the hypothesis for the German market was that
hedge funds would have a similar impact on German share prices.
If hedge funds had a positive influence on share prices then the positive
impact should occur near to the time of the investment (day 0) and should not
reverse thereafter. The data that I used was based on news reports or filings in the
Thomson One Banker database or in the BaFin database. In all cases I assumed
that the deal was not reported on the same day that it took place. The BaFin
requires deals crossing a threshold to be reported within 4 days. At the same time
information about the (planned) deal could have leaked to the market several days
before the deal actually took place. To reflect the delay in reporting and possible
leakage, I have used day0 minus 10 days (T-10) as the reference point for share
price performance. I consider T-10 as the time at which the target share price is
free from influence from the hedge fund deal.
23
the case than I would expect to see that any abnormal return that hedge funds
generate upon their engagement would reverse shortly after. There would be a
short-term increase in the share price but as other investors realize that there really
is no improvement to the underlying fundamentals, the share price should return
back to its original state. By applying a wider timer interval such as [-10,+60] and
[-100,+100] I can filter out such effects. If share outperform in the [-10,+30] interval
but perform average over a [-100,+100] interval this would be a strong indicator
for only short-term improvement.
If an abnormal return over the [-10, +60] interval is lower than over the
[-10,+30] period then that is an indicator that the abnormal return is short-term
only and not based on real fundamental improvement.
Finally, an abnormal return over the [-10, +30] interval without any
abnormal return over a [-30,+30] period would indicate that the target firm’s share
took a dip before the hedge fund invested and that the hedge fund is only a free
rider exploiting the situation.
Why a significant abnormal return over the [-10,+30] period alone does not
sufficiently prove my hypothesis is best illustrated with the three below diagrams.
Only the first diagram shows a real share price improvement attributable to the
hedge fund. The other two examples show short-term improvement only and the
free rider example where there is an increase in the share price but not caused by
24
the hedge fund. Rather, the hedge fund is acting opportunistically, speculating
that after a dip the share price will recover.
115
110
105
Hedge Fund
100
Markt
95
90
-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 +90
115
110
105
Hedge Fund
100
Markt
95
90
-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 +90
If the share price increase is only short-term, meaning there is no real change
to the firm’s performance then the initial jump in the share price is expected to
reverse in a subsequent period. This is shown in Figure 3 above.
25
110
105
100
95 Hedge Fund
90 Markt
85
80
-90 -60 -30 0 +30 +60 +90
Lastly, not all share price movements are triggered by the activist hedge
fund. In fact, most share price changes have other reasons. It might therefore be
likely that a share performs above the market over the [-10, +30] period but only
because there was a short-term downwards dip which reversed shortly after.
Should a hedge fund buy during that dip, then the analysis would show a positive
abnormal return, however, this is not causally linked to the hedge fund. Figure 4
above is an example and a visual analysis of the share price performance as well
as referring to a longer term interval [-30, +60] can help identify and isolate such
cases.
Over longer periods [-10, +60] the target shares buy-and-hold return is
equivalent to the market (mean 0%, median 0.1%) and over the even longer
26
[-100,+100] period target shares even under perform against the market with
negative abnormal return of -0.1% (mean) and -6.2% median.
The hedge funds target share performance against industry peers equally is
not significantly different. Abnormal returns are only 1.3% (mean) and negative -
0.5% (median) over the [-10, +30] interval with abnormal returns ranging from
negative -2.6% to 1.5% over the longer intervals.
The overall results are presented in Table 1 (abnormal return against market
index) and Table 2 (abnormal return against peer group) below.
At the 75% percentile target firm’s shares perform well and significantly
outperform the market and peer group. Here I also want to highlight that
abnormal returns are increasing over longer periods. This is a strong indication
that while many times hedge funds fail, in same cases they actually do achieve to
deliver sustainable long term improvements to overall operating performance.
Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the share price for EM.TV AG and SGL Carbon AG
over a six months period around hedge fund activism. The three vertical lines
mark the start, middle and end of the [-10, +30] interval. The most left line marks
t-10, the middle one t-0 and the right one t+30. The two straight lines between the
-10 and +30 markers are the projected market and peer performance as projected
from t-10. If the share price is above these lines then the share is delivering
27
positive abnormal returns and if the share price is below these lines then it is
delivering negative abnormal returns.
3.5
2.5
13
12
11
10
Figure 7 below illustrates the opposite case where hedge fund activism
backfired and was ill perceived by the market as the result of which the share
price dropped substantially by 17%.
28
24
22
20
18
16
14
In chapter 3.4 on page 15pp. I have given the example of a rise of the share
price of Deutsche Post merely based on rumours that a hedge fund bought a 3%
stake. Figure 8 shows the share price performance around this date. This figure is
a wonderful example for two reasons. First, it correlates nicely to Figure 3 on page
25 and to the theory behind the graph which I presented earlier. There is a short
spike going up from € 22.85 on 24/4/2007 to € 25.63 on 27/4/2007. This spike is a
12% rise in just three days. Shortly thereafter the price falls back to €23.4. This is a
typical example for a speculative share prince increase which is not underlined by
any changes to the underlying fundamentals. Secondly, this graph also illustrates
that the sharp share price rise started a few days before day 0, the day of the
official announcement. This strongly indicates that information was leaked to the
market. Such leakage is the reason why for analysis I am using the [-10, +30]
interval instead of a [0, +30] interval. Using the latter would lead to wrong
conclusions as can be seen from the graph in Figure 8.
29
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
14
13
12
11
10
30
The above example could be described as an event driven strategy; the
hedge fund responded to the temporary share price decline. Figure 10 is another
example of even driven strategy. In this example Rinol AG was in financial
distress. Around the date of hedge fund action two major events took place.
Firstly, there was a shareholder meeting at which shareholders approved the
presented turnaround strategy and secondly, banks granted additional loans to
Rinol AG. The share price increase is primarily attributable to the recovery of
Rinol, shareholders agreeing to the turnaround plan and banks granting
additional financing. The hedge fund was only a passive speculator in this case
(maybe having insider information).
31
99
89
79
69
59
49
Finally, there are also cases where even active activism by a hedge fund has
virtually no impact at all on the share price. Figure 12 is such a case. Techem AG’s
share price was flat while the market and peers were growing at normal rates.
This can be explained by the fact that the share price had already gone up
significantly from around € 38 to € 56. While the hedge fund claimed that the
company was underperforming and that the share price needed to rise, the market
had a different view and the hedge fund activism was not successful.
59
54
49
44
39
34
Only in 15 out of 46 cases (33%) there was a significant (>5%) positive abnormal
return over the [-10, +30] observation period. In 5 out of these 15 occurrences the
positive abnormal return was reversed in subsequent periods. Out of the 10
remaining cases for two the rise in the share price appears to be attributable to
32
external factors (e.g. relieve of the distress situation in the case of Rinol AG). This
means that there are only 8 out of 46 cases where hedge funds had a long lasting
positive influence on the target firm’s share price. Even for the 8 remaining cases,
there is no clear evidence that the hedge funds are the source of the share price
increase. It is equally possible that hedge funds were just stock picking the right
shares at that time (8 out of 46 could be pure luck).
The mean abnormal return of the whole sample is only 2.2% measured
against the market index and 1.3% when measured against peer groups, and both
values are not significantly different from 0% at a 95% confidence level. Overall,
there is therefore little to no evidence that hedge funds are a source for share price
increases or real improvements of the target firm’s performance (which should be
reflected in the share price) as I had originally anticipated.
33
Germany (Brealey, Myers, Allen, 2006). Consequently, the U.S. has a much
stronger sense for corporate governance and shareholder value and even
shareholder activism has a long history. In contrast, in Germany managers,
especially in smaller companies, are much less used to the idea of shareholder
value and stakeholder value is much more common. This can be attributed to the
fact that Germany puts a much stronger emphasis on co-determination which
weakens the influence that shareholders have. Shareholder activism is therefore
more difficult and rather uncommon as the shareholders are only one part of a
long list of stakeholders. The first obstacle for activist hedge funds is therefore to
get the firm’s management to listen. There are prominent examples in Germany
where hedge funds were successful (e.g. Deutsche Börse) but there are also other
prominent cases were the target firm’s management just ignored whatever the
hedge funds were demanding (e.g. CeWe). Even if the firm’s management buys in
to the hedge funds ideas, this doesn’t mean that the rest of the market will
appreciate such involvement. Ever since Franz Müntefering, former German
Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs called hedge funds locusts, are
investors scared that a hedge funds involvement could actually lead to poorer
long-term performance. Such anxiety can lead scared investors to sell their shares
upon receiving information that a hedge fund is planning to exert influence on a
firm. While I don’t have evidence for my theory, I do believe that differences in
the financial market and in corporate governance are the reason why hedge funds
in Germany are less successful than in the U.S. in regards to increasing target
firm’s share prices.
34
deals (SEC, 2006). John Coffee believes that hedge funds are the reason behind the
increase in insider trading. He states that “hedge funds are unregulated, and their
managers are not monitored as closely by compliance officers and counsel […]. Because
they trade in larger increments than more diversified institutional investors, they will pay
more for useful tips”. (Bingham McCutchen, 2006). While both sources are referring
to the U.S. market I suspect that also in Germany hedge funds are actively
involved in such manipulation. I dare to say that in some cases (e.g. Deutsche Post
AG), hedge funds pretend to be activist funds to make the market believe that
they will add value to the target’s share in order to benefit from a short-term price
increase. By the time the share price has fallen again, the hedge fund will have
sold its stake already, taking with it a small but profitable 1% or 2% gain.
Unfortunately, it is very hard to prove such suspicions due to the fact that hedge
funds are not regulated. As long as their stake remains below the 3% threshold at
which they would have to report their stake to the BaFin, hedge funds can trade
anonymously and only go public if it suits their need, e.g. they can buy a 2.8%
stake, announce this fact, wait for the price to rise and then sell their stake in
silence. Since hedge funds don’t have to report their dealings it is almost
impossible to get the necessary data to substantiate suspicions such as the one that
I have raised.
35
Allaire, Yvan and Firsirotu, Mihaela E., 2007, “Hedge Funds as Activist Shareholders:
Passing Phenomenon or Grave-Diggers of Public Corporations?‖. Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=961828
Barber, Brad M., 2006, “Monitoring the Monitor: Evaluating CalPERS' Shareholder
Activism”, Working Paper.
Boyson, Nicole M. and Mooradian, Robert M., 2007, “Hedge Funds as Shareholder
Activists from 1994-2005‖. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=992739
Bratton, William W., 2006, “Hedge Funds and Governance Targets”, Available at
SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=928689
Braun, Christian, 2007, “Smoke, mirrors and Hedge Funds”, Ethical Corporation, July
7, 2007, http://www.ethicalcorp.com/content.asp?ContentID=5231
Brav, Alon, Jiang, Wei, Partnoy, Frank and Thomas, Randall S., 2006, “Hedge Fund
Activism, Corporate Governance, and Firm Performance‖. ECGI - Finance Working
Paper No. 139/2006 Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=948907
Brealey, Richard A., Myers, Stewart C., Allen, Franklin, 2006, “Corporate Finance”,
8th Edition, McGraw-Hill
Briggs, Thomas W., 2007, “Corporate Governance and the New Hedge Fund
Activism: An Empirical Analysis”. Journal of Corporation Law, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2007
Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=911072
Campos, Roel C., SEC Commissioner, Speech to the Managed Funds Association,
July 12, 2005
Chany, Nicholas T., Getmansky, Mila, Haas, Shane M. and Lo, Andrew W., 2005,
“Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds‖. MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4535-05 Available
at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=671443
Cox, Christoper, 2006, Testimony concerning the regulation of hedge funds (before
the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs), July 25 2006,
Available at: http://www.sec.gov/news/testimony/2006/ts072506cc.htm
36
Dougherty, Carter, 2007, “Economic power to study growing influence of hedge
funds”, International Herald Tribune, February 10, 2007, available at:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/10/europe/web.0210G7.php
Fisher, Kenneth L., Statman, Meir, 2002, “Blowing Bubbles”, The Journal of
Psychology and Financial Markets, 2002, Vol. 3, No. 1, Pages 53-65
Gabelli, Mario J., 2007, “The History of Hedge Funds – The Millionaire’s Club”,
GAMCO Investors Inc., retrieved on August 1, 2007. Available at:
http://www.gabelli.com/news/mario-hedge_102500.html
Garbaravicius, Thomas, Dierick, Frank, 2005, “Hedge Funds and Their Implications
for Financial Stability”, European Central Bank, Occasional Paper Series, No. 34,
August 2005
Gillan, Stuart L. and Starks, Laura T., 2007, “The Evolution of Shareholder Activism in
the United States”. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=959670
Goetzmann, William N., and Stephen A. Ross, 2000, “Hedge funds: Theory and
performance”, Working Paper, Yale University and Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Hu, Henry T.C. and Black, Bernard S., 2007, “Hedge Funds, Insiders, and the
Decoupling of Economic and Voting Ownership: Empty Voting and Hidden
(Morphable) Ownership‖. Journal of Corporate Finance, vol. 13, pp. 343-367, 2007
Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=874098
Hu, Henry T.C., and Black, Bernard, 2006, “Hedge funds, insiders, and empty voting:
Decoupling of economic and voting ownership in public companies”, Working paper,
University of Texas Law School
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takeovers, “American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings‖, May 1986, pp.
323-329.
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Corporate Control”, New York University working paper.
Karpoff, Jonathan M., 2001, “The Impact of Shareholder Activism on Target Companies:
A Survey of Empirical Findings”, Working Paper.
37
Klein, April and Zur, Emanuel, 2006, “Hedge Fund Activism”, AAA 2007 Financial
Accounting & Reporting Section (FARS) Meeting Paper Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=913362
Kiev, A., 2002, “The psychology of risk mastering market uncertainty”, New York, NY,
John Wiley & Sons
Lake, Ronald A., 2003, “Evaluating and Implementing Hedge Fund Strategies”, 3rd
Edition, Euromoney Books
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http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/03/20/cramer-market-manipulator/
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http://www.ethicalcorp.com/content.asp?ContentID=4681
38
Target Hedge Fund Day 0 Comments
10tacle Avenue Capital 13/10/2006 stake increased to above 8%
Balda Guy Wyser-Pratte 17/01/2007 increased stake to 5.39%
Bertrandt Absolute Capital Management 28/12/2005 stake REDUCED from 6.5% to 3.7%
BHW Absolute Capital Management 23/12/2005 3% stake
Borussia Dortmund Och-Ziff 27/06/2006 7.56%
has 9%; demands extraordinary
CeWe MarCap (M2 Capital) 31/01/2007 dividend
also Lansdowne; merger arbitrage
Commerzbank Tosca Fund 03/08/2005 (hoping for takeover)
pressure to make changes and
Deutsche Börse Atticus 24/02/2007 increase dividend
Deutsche Börse TCI 09/05/2006 10% stake
Deutsche Post TCI 27/04/2007 speculation that TCI would invest
Deutsche Telekom Laxey 03/11/2006 Activism starts here
Deutsche Telekom Blackstone 24/04/2006 4,5%
Drillisch Montrica 09/03/2007 6.17%
EM.TV Centaurus 11/10/2004 5.22% stake reported
EM.TV MarCap (M2 Capital) 09/06/2007 3% stake
Evotec Absolute Capital Management 02/07/2007 3.037%
Hermes (holding 5.2%) pushing for
Freenet Hermes 25/06/2007 divestment, support from ACM
bought 3% and announced planned
increase to 5% and expectation of
Freenet Absolute Capital Management 24/05/2007 6Euro dividend
Gerry Weber Absolute Capital Management 22/02/2007 3.3% stake
Heidelberger Druck Centaurus 04/07/2007 5.13%
Hugo Boss Carlyle and Permirar want to takeover
(Valentino) Carlyle 16/05/2007 Valentino
Karstadt Wellington Management Company 01/03/2007
KUKA (IWKA) Guy Wyser-Pratte 28/10/2003 buys 5% stake
KUKA (IWKA) Guy Wyser-Pratte 17/10/2005 stake increased to 7%
KUKA (IWKA) K Capital Partners 07/05/2005 5.29% stake
Medion Orbis 24/01/2005 5.5% stake
Medion Orbis 21/01/2006 stake increased to 10% (early January)
Mistral Media AG Absolute Capital Management 22/12/2006
Pixelpark AG Absolute Capital Management 29/03/2007
Praktiker Eton Park Capital Management 13/04/2006 stake 6.6%
second hedge fund to invest, stake
Praktiker T. Rowe Price 10/05/2006 5.24%
Praktiker Eton Park Capital Management 03/07/2006 stake REDUCED from 6.6% to 2.4%
Highbride plans to TAKE OVER Rinol
Rinol Highbride 10/08/2005 (who is in distress situation)
77 euro bid on march 13 2006, price
jump already before HF announcement
Schering Citadel 12/04/2006 due to bid, latest bid 86
K Capital and others have bought 15%
SGL Carbon K Capital Partners 19/05/2005 stake (total, all three)
SGL Carbon K Capital Partners 24/06/2005 stake REDUCED to 2.8%
TAG Tegernsee Absolute Capital Management 18/08/2006 stake 5%
TAG Tegernsee Taube Hodson Stonex 07/09/2006 11% stake
39
stake increased to above 10% and to
Techem Elliot Associates 15/03/2007 15% one week later
first report 3 Jan; further activism mid
March 2007 and June 26 2007;
quadrupled dividend announced Feb
Techem Elliot Associates 03/01/2007 2007
TUI Absolute Capital Management 12/03/2007 3% over last 2-3 months
various hedge funds SHOWING
TUI various 13/08/2004 INTEREST, not actually buying
Vivacon Absolute Capital Management 02/03/2007 3% stake since February 21
40
41
15
14.5 10tacle
14
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
10
12
11
Balda
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
14
Bertrandt
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
42
2.7 Borussia Dortmund
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
49 CeWe
44
39
34
29
24 Commerzbank
22
20
18
16
14
43
67 Deutsche Börse
62
57
52
47
42
95 DeutscheBörse (2)
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
28
27
Deutsche Post
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
44
16
Deutsche Telekom
15
14
13
12
11
10
16
15.5 Deutsche Telekom (2)
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
81
DIS
76
71
66
61
56
51
46
41
45
10
9.5 Drillisch
9
8.5
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4
3.8 EM.TV
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
5
4.9 EM.TV (2)
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4
46
27 Freenet
25
23
21
19
17
15
27 Freenet (2)
25
23
21
19
17
15
24 Gerry Weber
22
20
18
16
14
47
59 Hugo Boss
54
49
44
39
34
24
23 KuKa
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
25
24 KuKa (2)
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
48
31 Karstadt
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
19
18
Medion
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
14
13.5 Medion (2)
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
10
9.5
9
49
9
8
Nordex
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
28 Praktiker
26
24
22
20
18
28 Praktiker (2)
26
24
22
20
18
50
29
Praktiker (3)
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
9
8.5 Rinol
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
99 Schering
89
79
69
59
49
51
13
12.5 SGL
12
11.5
11
10.5
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
14
SGL (2)
13
12
11
10
11
10.5
TAG
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
7
52
11
10.5
TAG (2)
10
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
7
59
Techem
54
49
44
39
34
62 Techem (2)
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
53
18
TUI
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
24
23 TUI (2)
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
34
32
Vivacon
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
54
30 Arquana
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
6
Mistral
5.5
4.5
3.5
2
1.9 Pixelpark
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
55
1.5
WCM
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
18
17.5 BHW
17
16.5
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
56
Relevant hedge funds and search terms used for the database research:
57
Carlyle Group Dubai Holding
Caxton Associates Edward Lampert
Celanese AG Egerton Capital
Celanese Europe Holding GmbH Elliot and Deka
Celanese Europe Holding GmbH & Co KG Elliott Associates
Celexa Group Elliott International
Centaurus Capital Elliott Management Corp
Centaurus Capital Enhanced Zero Trust
Centaurus Energy EQMC Fund
Cerberus Capital Equitilink elink
Cerberus Capital Management ESL Investments
Cerberus European Investments ESL Investments Inc
Cerberus Investment ESL Partners II
Cevian Capital ESL Partners
CeWe Color Holding AG Ethos Fund
CGA Insurance Brokers Eton Park
Chap-Cap Activist Partners Eton Park Capital Management
Chap-Cap Partners 2 Eurocastle Investment
Chapman Capital Everest Capital Advisors
Cheyne Capital Exel
Cheyne Capital Management Farallon
Children's Invest Fund Mgmt Farallon Associates
Children's Investment Fund Management Farallon Capital Institutional Partners II
Children's Investment Fund Mgmt Farallon Capital Institutional Partners III
Cholet Acquisitions Farallon Capital Institutional Partners
Citadel Farallon Capital Management
Citadel Investment Group Farallon Capital Management
Clarium Capital Farallon Capital Management Partners
CMP Acquisition Corp Farallon Capital Offshore Investors II
CMP Group Inc Farallon Capital Offshore Investors Inc
CMP Holdings Ferox Capital
CMP Investments Fortress
CMP Partners Fortress Deutschland GmbH
Coller Capital Fortress Investment Group
Convexity FrontPoint
Copper Arch Capital Fulcrum Asset Management
Costa Brava Partnership III, Gabelli Asset Management
CQS GAGFAH Immobilien-Management
Cyrus Capital Partners Gartmore
D.E. Shaw GBH Acquisition GmbH
David Jones Gerresheimer Group
DE Shaw Glenview Capital
Deutsche Annington Immobilien GLG Partners
Deutsche Asset Mgmt Grp Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Diamond Hill Focus Long-Short Fund Goodwood
Dillon Read Graham Investment Managers
Dividend Capital Trust Inc Grainger Trust
Dolphin Greenlight Capital
Dometic International AB Guy Wyser-Pratte
Drive Sarl Hao 63
Dubai Financial Harold Simmons
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Hastings Funds Management Man Group
Heat Beteiligungs III GmbH Marcap Corp
Hennessee Group Marshall Wace
Hermitage Capital Corp Maverick Capital
Hermitage Capital Management Millennium Partners
HERMITAGE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Moneywise Queensland Pty
HIE Ventures Montrica Investment Management
Highbridge Moore Capital
Highbridge Capital Murray Emerging Growth & Income Trust
Highbridge Capital Management Murray Japan Growth & Income
Highbridge Event Driven/ Relative Value Murray Johnstone Holdings
Highbridge International Murray Johnstone
Highfields Capital Murray Johnstone Private Equity
Highfields Capital GP Nakornthon Schroder Asset Management Co
Highfields Capital Management Northern Trust Corp
Highland Capital Corp Northern Venture Managers
Highland Capital Holding Corp Oaktree Capital Group,
Highland Capital Management Oaktree Capital Management
Highland Capital Partners Oaktree Capital Management.
HL Income & Growth Trust Och Ziff Capital
Icahn Partners Och-Ziff
Icahn Partners Master Fund Och-Ziff Capital Management Group
International Management Associates Och-Ziff Management Europe
Investor Group Octavian Advisors
Investor Group Omega Advisors
Investors Omega Advisors Inc
Investors Opportunity Partners
IXIS Capital Partners Orbis AG
Jabre Capital Partners Orbis Capital
Jana Partners Orbis Investment Management
JP Morgan Orbis Investment Management
JTR Management OSK Asia Securities
JWM Partners Ospraie Management
K Capital Partners Owl Creek Asset Management
K Capital Pty Pardus Capital Mgmt
Kailix Advisors Paulson & Co
KBC Alternative Investment Management Pembridge Capital Management
Kingdon Capital Pequot Capital
Kynikos Perry Capital
Lansdowne Partners Perry Capital Corp
Laxey Investment Trust Perry Capital Group
Laxey Partners Perry Corp
Legg Mason Pershing Square Capital Mgmt
Liberation Investment Group Pirate Capital
Liverpool Platinum Equity
Liverpool Partnership Polygon Investments
London Diversified Fund Management Primemodern
Lone Pine Prolific Financial Management
Lone Pine Capital PSAM
Longhirst Group Questor Partners Fund II
Magnetar RAB Capital
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Red Kite Terra Firma Investments
Relational Investors Thames River Capital
Renaissance Technologies The Children’s Investment Fund
Richard Blum Themis Investment Management
Richards Longstaff Third Avenue Managment
Rowe Price Fleming International Inc Third Point
SAC Capital Third Point Partners
SAC Capital Advisors Tibbet & Britten Deutschland
Sandell Asset Management Tontine
Sandell Asset Management Corp Tosca Fund
Sandell Perkins Toscafund
Santa Monica Partners Touradji Capital
Scandinavian Property Development ASA Touradji Capital Management
Schultze Asset Mgmt TPG-Axon
Scottish National Trust Tracinda Corp
Shepherd Investments International Trafelet & Co
Silver Point Capital Trian Fund Management
Silver Point Capital Fund Investments Trian Group
SkyBridge Capital Tribeca
Sloane Robinson Tudor
Soros Fund Management Tudor Arbitrage Partners
Southeastern Asset Management Tudor Capital Partners
Stark International Tudor Capital Ventures II
Stark Trading Tudor Capital
Steel Partners Tudor Group Holdings
Steel Partners II Tudor Investment Corp
Steel Partners Turdor Investment Corp
Stewart Horejsi Undisclosed Danish Properties
SULO GmbH ValueAct Capital Management
SULO Group Vega Asset Management
SULO Nord-West GmbH & Co KG Viterra Energy Services AG
Sulo Ost GmbH & Co KG Viterra Sicherheit und Service GmbH
TCA Group VMS Value Management Services
TDC A/S Whitehall Street Fund
Techem AG WS Capital
Techem AG Energy Contracting Wyser-Pratte
Techem Energy Services GmbH York Capital
Terra Firma Capital Partners
Terra Firma Capital Partners
Terra Firma Capital Partners -Movie Houses
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List of hedge fund managers and hedge fund investors which were used to
supplement the database search:
William Ackman
Jeffrey Altman
Richard Blum
Robert Burton
Robert Chapman
Steve Cohen
Michael Dell
Ric Dillon
Phillip Goldstein
Charles Gradante
Christopher Hohn
Stewart Horejsi
Tom Hudson
Carl Icahn
Kirk Kerkorian
Edward Lampert
Daniel Loeb
Donald T. Netter
Jim Mitarotonda
Nelson Peltz
Barry Rosenstein
Michael Roth
David Shaw
Harold Simmons
Scott Sipprelle
Carlos Slim Helu
Brian Stark
David Tepper
Ralph Whitworth
Guy Wyser-Pratte
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Convertible Arbitrage: This strategy is identified by hedge investing in the
convertible securities of a company. A typical investment is to be long the
convertible bond and short the common stock of the same company.
Positions are designed to generate profits from the fixed income security as
well as the short sale of stock, while protecting principal from market
moves.
Dedicated Shortseller: Dedicated short sellers were once a robust category
of hedge funds before the long bull market rendered the strategy difficult
to implement. A new category, short biased, has emerged. The strategy is
to maintain net short as opposed to pure short exposure. Short biased
managers take short positions in mostly equities and derivatives. The short
bias of a manager's portfolio must be constantly greater than zero to be
classified in this category.
Emerging Markets: This strategy involves equity or fixed income investing
in emerging markets around the world. Because many emerging markets
do not allow short selling, nor offer viable futures or other derivative
products with which to hedge, emerging market investing often employs a
long-only strategy.
Equity Market Neutral: This investment strategy is designed to exploit
equity market inefficiencies and usually involves being simultaneously
long and short matched equity portfolios of the same size within a country.
Market neutral portfolios are designed to be either beta or currency
neutral, or both. Well-designed portfolios typically control for industry,
sector, market capitalization, and other exposures. Leverage is often
applied to enhance returns.
Event Driven: This strategy is defined as `special situations' investing
designed to capture price movement generated by a significant pending
corporate event such as a merger, corporate restructuring, liquidation,
bankruptcy or reorganization. There are three popular sub-categories in
event-driven strategies: risk (merger) arbitrage, distressed/high yield
securities, and Regulation D.
Fixed Income Arbitrage: The fixed income arbitrageur aims to profit from
price anomalies between related interest rate securities. Most managers
trade globally with a goal of generating steady returns with low volatility.
This category includes interest rate swap arbitrage, U.S. and non-U.S.
government bond arbitrage, forward yield curve arbitrage, and mortgage-
backed securities arbitrage. The mortgage-backed market is primarily U.S.-
based, over-the-counter and particularly complex.
Global Macro: Global macro managers carry long and short positions in
any of the world's major capital or derivative markets. These positions
reflect their views on overall market direction as influenced by major
economic trends and/or events. The portfolios of these funds can include
stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities in the form of cash or
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derivatives instruments. Most funds invest globally in both developed and
emerging markets.
Long/Short Equity: This directional strategy involves equity-oriented
investing on both the long and short sides of the market. The objective is
not to be market neutral. Managers have the ability to shift from value to
growth, from small to medium to large capitalization stocks, and from a
net long position to a net short position. Managers may use futures and
options to hedge. The focus may be regional, such as long/short U.S. or
European equity, or sector specific, such as long and short technology or
healthcare stocks. Long/short equity funds tend to build and hold
portfolios that are substantially more concentrated than those of traditional
stock funds.
Managed Futures: This strategy invests in listed financial and commodity
futures markets and currency markets around the world. The managers are
usually referred to as Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs. Trading
disciplines are generally systematic or discretionary. Systematic traders
tend to use price and market specific information (often technical) to make
trading decisions, while discretionary managers use a judgmental
approach.
Multi-Strategy: The funds in this category are characterized by their ability
to dynamically allocate capital among strategies falling within several
traditional hedge fund disciplines. The use of many strategies, and the
ability to reallocate capital between them in response to market
opportunities, means that such funds are not easily assigned to any
traditional category. The Multi-Strategy category also includes funds
employing unique strategies that do not fall under any of the other
descriptions.
Fund of Funds: A `Multi Manager' fund will employ the services of two or
more trading advisors or Hedge Funds who will be allocated cash by the
Trading Manager to trade on behalf of the fund.
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