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Risk and Safety Group, Institut fur Baustatik und Konstruktion, ETH-Honggerberg, HIL E 32.3, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland
b
Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW 2308, Australia
Received 28 March 2002; revised 24 July 2002; accepted 3 January 2003
Abstract
The present paper should be seen as a basis for discussion of important aspects of risk analysis and assessment, as well as attempting to
describe risk assessment in accordance with the present state of the art. Risk assessment is thus presented in an overview form from the
viewpoint of being a means for decision-making and thus within the formal framework of decision theory. First the motivation for risk
analysis is given and the theoretical basis together with the practical aspects, methodologies and techniques for the implementation of risk
assessment in civil engineering applications are explained and discussed. The paper furthermore addresses the problems associated with risk
acceptance criteria, risk aversion and value of human life and attempts to provide suggestions for the rational treatment of these aspects.
Finally a number of problem areas are highlighted and the needs for further education, research and dissemination are stressed.
q 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Risk; Risk analysis; Decision theory; Uncertainty; Probability; Consequences; Risk averseness; Risk acceptance; Optimality
1. Introduction
During the last decade there has been an increasing
societal concern on sustainable developments focusing on
the conservation of the environment, the welfare and
safety of the individual and at the same time the optimal
allocation of available natural and financial resources. As
a consequence the methods of risk and reliability analysis
in civil engineering, mainly developed during the last
three decades, are increasingly gaining importance as
decision support tools in civil engineering applications.
However, their value in connection with the quantification and documentation of risks and the planning of
risk reducing and mitigating measures is not fully
appreciated in the civil engineering profession at large,
although it is in some specialist areas and interest in risk
management, asset management, etc. is increasing
rapidly. Risk and reliability analysis is in fact a multidisciplinary engineering field requiring a solid foundation
in one or several classical civil engineering disciplines in
addition to a thorough understanding of probability, risk
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: michael.faber@ethz.ch (M.H. Faber).
0951-8320/03/$ - see front matter q 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00027-9
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3.1. Overview
Risk analyses may be represented in a generic format,
which is largely independent from the application or
whether the risk analysis is performed in order to document
that the risks associated with a given activity are acceptable
or is performed to serve as a basis for a management
decision. Fig. 1 shows a generic representation of a risk
analysis, in this case, a flow chart based on the Australia/
New Zealand code on Risk Management [1]. Clearly, Fig. 1
shows that a risk analysis is not a one-off process, but one
that may well require regular monitoring and review due to
changes in system needs, increased operating experience,
accidents and other new information relevant to system
performance. The individual steps in the flow chart are
described in Stewart and Melchers [2].
3.2. Hazard identification
One of the first tasks in risk analysis of civil engineering
facilities is to identify the potential hazards, i.e. the sources
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Acknowledgements
This paper is based on a shortened version of a discussion
paper presented by the authors to the Joint Committee of
Structural Safety. The full text of the JCSS discussion paper,
which includes more extensive discussion of the issues
raised in the present paper, may be obtained from the JCSS
http://www.jcss.ethz.ch/.
References
[1] AS/NZS 4360. Risk Management. Standards Australia, Sydney; 1999.
[2] Stewart MG, Melchers RE. Probabilistic risk assessment of
engineering systems. London: Chapman & Hall; 1997.
[3] Hauser R. Lessons from European failures. Concr Int 1979;21 5.
[4] Eldukair ZA, Ayyub BM. Analysis of recent U.S. structural and
construction failures. J Perform Constr Facilities, ASCE 1991;5(1):
5773.
[5] Stewart MG. Structural reliability and error control in reinforced
concrete design and construction. Struct Safety 1993;12:27792.
[6] Faber MH, Kroon IB, Kragh E, Bayly D, Decosemaeker P. Risk
assessment of decommissioning options using Bayesian networks.
J Offshore Mech Arctic Engng, ASCE 2002;124:231 8.
[7] Faber MH. Lecture notes on risk and safety in civil engineering. An
introduction to Bayesian Probabilistic Nets, http://www.ibk.baug.
ethz.ch/Fa/; 2001.
[8] Friis-Hansen A. Inspection planning for offshore jacket structures
using Bayesian networks. In: Faber MH, editor. Proc. to International
Workshop on Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Planning. IBK
Bericht Nr. 266; 2001. p. 139 54.
[9] Ditlevsen O, Madsen HO. Structural reliability methods. Chichester:
Wiley; 1996.
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