♦ Issue 2010/02

12 April 2010♦ Fortnightly Issue

Personal Finance & Investment

Newsletter

News and Updates for the Savvy Kiwi Indian

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Financial Briefs: » Last week effectively marked the beginning of » Investor interest in emerging markets and
NZ 2 the 2nd quarter, with rate decisions from 4 their commodities stories also jumped, with
India 3 central banks (Australia, Europe, Japan & U.K.) flows into EPFR Global-tracked emerging
dominating focus. As expected, all but Australia markets equity funds hitting a 24-week high.
FX/Commodities Snapshot stood pat on their decision to raise rates. » The U.S. Dollar index (measure of US Dollar
4 Australia hiked 25bps to 4.25%. » Global stocks against a basket of currencies) was down
posted gains for a sixth straight week, and the around 0.77% last week as risk appetite
euro firmed after sources said euro zone leaders increased.
Financial Jokes/Quotes 4 agreed to terms of a possible emergency loan » US Treasuries recorded their best week since
for Greece and U.S. economic data buoyed February, with the benchmark 10-year note
Article: recovery hopes. » U.S. DJI hit 11,000 for the first dropping 7bp to yield 3.88%, as traders
Foreign Exchange 5 time since Sep 2008. NZX up to 18-month high. speculated borrowing costs will stay low for
Asian equity markets edged to a 22-month high. most of the year and an auction of 10-year notes
NZ-India Trade 6 MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex Japan index gained more last week drew the strongest demand in at least
than 4% since the start of the year. 16 years. (Aust 10-year at 5.83%)
●●●●●●
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Moorrttggaaggeess

DEFAULT SCHEME In an effort to increase awareness as a home loan offer, customers need to qualify for HSBC
loan provider of choice for high net-worth Premier, with minimum combined home loans
PERFORMANCE
individuals, HSBC launched on April 7, a Home of $500,000. SBS Bank also cut rates last week
(thru December 2009) Loan campaign featuring competitive rates between 0.05% to 0.10% for its 1, 2 & 3 year
across common fixed terms. The new home loan rates.
Fund 1-year
rates on offer include a six-month fixed term
Performance
rate of 4.99%, the lowest of all currently Lowest Floating: BNZ’s Total Money at 5.59%
AMP (Default) published rates in the market including variable Lowest 1-year: HSBC Premier at 5.49%
6.78% rates, as well as a 12-month rate of 5.49%, the Lowest 3-year: HSBC Premier at 7.29%
ASB only one year fixed term rate that falls below source:mortgagerates.co.nz
Conservative 6.43% 5.5%. To be eligible to take up the HSBC home
AXA Income Plus
10.74% IInnssuurraannccee
ING
Conservative 6.30% Sovereign announces enhancements to its Insurance's car, life and asset protection
Fund Living Assurance Comprehensive policy. products from April 1. The introduction of the
Mercer new products/services will be staggered.
Conservative 13.99% The newly announced enhancements to the
Tower Cash TotalCareMax Living Assurance Comprehensive AIA NZ dismisses Prudential sale
Enhanced 7.68% product introduce several optional benefits, rumours…launches new business products.
Source: Morningstar plus a wider range of partial payments to
provide for varying degrees of trauma. Some of AIA New Zealand quashed rumours on March
●●●●●● the changes ensure customers will receive 30 that it will be sold by Prudential if it takes
compensation for a range of conditions upon over American International Group's (AIG's)
diagnosis, so they can seek early intervention or AIA and says it has been told by head office to
PPuubblliisshheerr::AA..SS..KK.. PPuubblliisshhiinngg adapt their lifestyles accordingly. Pregnant put growth strategies in place. Sources directly
EEddiittoorr:: SSuunniill KKhheem mllaannii women, Alzheimer's sufferers, cancer patients involved in the Prudential $35.5 billion
PPrriinntteerr:: OOffffiicceeNNoow w and heart-attack victims are some of the people purchase of AIA told Reuters that Prudential
who could benefit from the key changes. may quit some countries in Asia including
FFoorr ccoom Australia and New Zealand due to low market
mm meennttss,, aaddvveerrttiissiinngg,, oorr Marac sells half its insurance business to AA share. The two new products launched: New to
mmaaiill oorrddeerr,, pplleeaassee ccoonnttaacctt:: Business Cover and Business Continuation
((0099))33008800778877 oorr eemmaaiill:: The sale, which will see AA buy 50% of Marac Cover.
aasskkppuubblliisshh@@w woooosshh..ccoo..nnzz Insurance for $2.2 million, comes after Marac
Finance set up a finance partnership with AA
© Copyright 2010 A.S.K. last year. AA outlets will start selling Marac
Publishing. All rights reserved.
 Personal Finance & Investment
Newsletter

BNZ CONFIDENCE SURVEY - CONFIDENCE UP SLIGHTLY S&P EXPECTS MORE FINANCE COMPANIES TO
COLLAPSE
Respondents showed a slight improvement in sentiment with a net
42% confident about the economy in a year's time compared to In a report on the country's non-bank
35% three weeks ago. The survey leaves little justification for deposit takers (NBDT), S&P flagged the lack of
saying that the New Zealand is powering out of recession, but the back-up external liquidity through bank facilities or
tone does suggest improvement is slowly occurring. credit lines as a weakness of many finance companies.The
government guarantee remains a major risk for NBDTs in that most
Broadly summarised responses from selected industries debenture stock will mature before the expiry of the initial scheme
Mild improvements here and there on Oct. 12, and the "most vulnerable to liquidity and refinancing
Accountancy but cash flow still tight for many risks are those not covered by the deposit guarantee through the
small businesses. extension period."
Mild improvement evident, but
patchy and with tight margins plus NZ ranks 8th in World's Worst country for Jobs
Construction
an over-supply of trades people
still.
Jobless Rate Rise from 2009
Information 1 Ireland 13.80% 4.40%
Spending appears to be picking up.
Technology/Telecommunications
2 Slovak Republic 13.70% 4.00%
Property Development Weak. Lack of finance cited. 3 Denmark 7.30% 3.30%
Activity improving except for home 4 Turkey 13.10% 3.20%
Manufacturing furnishings including furniture and
5 Iceland 7.80% 3.20%
carpet.
6 Spain 18.80% 3.00%
Buyers in short supply with plenty
of uncertainty regarding the 7 Czech Republic 8.20% 3.00%
Real Estate - Residential 8 New Zealand 7.20% 2.50%
Budget. Investors generally selling
or not buying. 9 Hungary 11.10% 2.30%
Plentiful though not overwhelming 10 Greece 9.70% 2.20%
listings. Source: Forbes
Overall weak with customers more
Retail
discerning. DOMESTIC SALES SUPPORT GROWTH

IMF URGES NZ TO MAKE BIGGER SPENDING CUTS The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association
(NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during March
The International Monetary Fund is urging the New Zealand 2010, shows total sales in February 2010 increased 1% (export
Government to make bigger cuts to its spending. But Prime Minister sales decreased by 16% with domestic sales increasing 12%) on
John Key says the Government is not prepared to go as far as the February 2009. According to its Chief Executive, “Export sales and
IMF suggests – cuts which involve Working for Families, interest- staff numbers are still a concern with an overvalued exchange rate
free student loans and subsidies for visits to the doctor. According and weak international markets combining to ruin returns to
to the IMF, the medium term fiscal outlook in NZ has worsened, exporters. More investment and more jobs in the tradeable sector
with budget deficits of 3-6% of GDP expected over 4-5 years. will only follow improved profitability through policy settings that
Finance Minister Bill English is forecasting the budget deficit will return an exchange rate based on trade."
narrow from 2011 as a recovering economy boosts revenue and
spending cuts become effective. He pledged to limit new spending in New Zealand NZX 50 Index
the May 20 budget to NZ$1.1 billion ($780 million) in order to Week High: 3310
contain debt. Week Low: 3276
Week Close: 3310
According to the IMF, NZ GROWTH RATE PROJECTED AT 3%
IN 2010, 2011, WITH KEY RISKS BEING A DROP IN CHINESE Daily Q.NZ50 23/12/2009 - 14/04/2010 (WEL)
DEMAND/STALL IN GLOBAL ECONOMY. Price Line, Q.NZ50, 9/04/2010, 3,310.247
NZD
NZ GST RATE IS ALREADY HIGH IN ASIA PACIFIC – KPMG MEDIA
3,250
RELEASE
3,200
New Zealand's 12.5 percent goods and services tax (GST) rate is
already higher than the Asia Pacific average of 10.8%, according to
3,150
the KPMG Asia Pacific indirect tax country guide.
While this is not surprising given the relative newness of many of
3,100
the indirect tax regimes in the Asia Pacific region, if a rise to 15
percent is confirmed in the upcoming budget, the gap with the Asia
Pacific tax average will increase further. The global average is seen 29 05 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 06 12
at 15.25%. The report also shows that like New Zealand, other January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 Apr 10
countries are using GST as a way of raising taxes and broadening
their tax base. Source: Reuters

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 Personal Finance & Investment
Newsletter

NEW US-INDIA TALKS FOCUS ON MARKETS, INFRASTRUCTURE
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner opened a new bilateral
economic dialogue on April 6-7 with India by focusing on
macroeconomic stability, financial markets and infrastructure
financing.
"We don't have a specific wish list, we certainly have views," a
senior Treasury official told a news briefing. "We are eager to see
India continuing along its path of reform, continuing on a path of
contributing to global macro stability, continuing to open its
markets. These are all areas where continued scucesss would bring
great dividends, not just to the people of India, but the people of the
United States."
Geithner met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The talks were announced
during Singh's visit to Washington last November.
There will be significant focus on identifying opportunities for U.S.
firms to export to India and participating in India's infrastructure
development, the official said. The two sides also discussed
infrastructure financing, with the Treasury offering expertise in
helping India develop a municipal bond market, and India sharing
experience in private-sector infrastructure development.
PM MANNOHAN SINGH RECENTLY ANNOUNCED INDIA NEEDS TO
DOUBLE ITS INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING TO $1 TRILLION IN
THE FIVE YEARS TO 2016-17 TO ACHIEVE 10% ANNUAL GROWTH
RATES.
TRIPADVISOR, THE WORLD’S LARGEST AND MOST POPULAR
TRAVEL COMMUNITY, ANNOUNCED THE WINNERS OF ITS 2010
TRAVELERS' CHOICE AWARDS. HERE ARE INDIA’S WINNERS:
Overall Top 10 Hotels in India
1 Casa Candolim, Goa
2 Old Harbour Hotel, Cochin
3 Taj Rambagh Palace, Jaipur
4 Taj Lake Palace, Udaipur
5 The Oberoi Grand, Kolkata
6 Sajhome, Kochi
7 Ratan Vilas, Jodhpur
8 Camp Noel, Munnar
9 Hotel Victoria, Jaisalmer
10 Amarya Garden, New Delhi
Seperately, with the tourism industry reviving, the tourism ministry
says INDIA needs 150,000 new hotel rooms in 3 yrs.
SOROS, KAISER IN RACE TO BUY 4% BSE STAKE
BSE posted a net profit of Rs 55.42 crore on
revenue of Rs119.21 crore for the quarter ended
December 2009.
RESERVE BANK OF INDIA (RBI) MAY TIGHTEN
MORE IN APRIL
According to the chairman of India's top lender, State Bank of India,
the RBI may tighten monetary policy further at its April 20 review. A
chief economic adviser in the finance ministry and Kotak Mahindra
Bank (KMB) are also of the same opinion, with the latter forecasting
a further 25 basis point increase at the next meeting. In its effort to
remove the monetary stimulus, RBI's actions are likely to remain
measured and dependent on the data relating to the prevailing
inflationary situation. Liquidity needs to be kept comfortable in the
banking system to accommodate the government's gross borrowing
of 4.57 trillion rupees in the fiscal year starting April along with the
rising credit needs of the private sector. According to KMB, the RBI
is likely to raise the repo rate by another 100-125 basis points and
the cash reserve ratio by around 75-100 basis points by the end of
March 2011.
INDIA BEGINS 2011 CENSUS, ENUMERATING OVER 1.2 BILLION
PEOPLE
- a process described by Home Minister P. Chidambaram as "the
biggest exercise... since humankind came into existence."
BSE INDEX POSTS NINETH CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY GAIN
Indian shares logged their second longest weekly winning streak in
nearly a year, to close 1.4 percent higher for the week, supported by
earnings optimism and firm world equities.
According to a Reuters report, Foreign funds have been consistent
buyers of Indian equities since late-February's national budget
which pushed for fiscal consolidation and higher consumption
power. They have bought more than $5 billion of Indian equities so
Far this year, most of which came in after the budget. They had
pumped in $17.5 billion in 2009, which fuelled a rally and saw the
benchmark index gain 81 percent.
"Valuations look stretched from FY11 perspective, but people are
not looking at India from only a one-year perspective. The India
story is here to stay," said one portfolio manager.
Bombay Sensex Index
Week High: 18047
Week Low: 17679
Week Close: 17933
Daily Q.BSESN 23/12/2009 - 16/04/2010 (BOM)
Price Line, Q.BSESN, 9/04/2010, 17,933.14
INR
17,600

US micro hedge fund legend George Soros and the world’s third 17,200
biggest philanthropist George Kaiser are in the race to acquire close
to 4 per cent in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Asia’s oldest 16,800
stock exchange.
In the recent past, the valuation of the exchange saw a sudden spurt 16,400
after a new management team took over in 2009.
While some stock brokers sold BSE shares at around Rs 180 a piece 16,000
some six months ago, a bank auctioned 0.27 million shares at Rs 320
a couple of months ago. BSE currently has a near 28 per cent share 29 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 02 08 15 22 29 05 12
of the equity spot market in the country and has been making efforts January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010
to develop its derivative trading segment, where National Stock Source: Reuters
Exchange is a monopoly player.
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 Personal Finance & Investment
Newsletter

New Zealand dollar ended the week

higher aided by a number of factors,
which included a rise in the average
price of wholesale milk powder, a
possible Greek bailout and Chinese
yuan revaluation. The IMF, on the
other hand, recently made some
Daily QNZD= 31/12/2009 - 14/04/2010 (GMT) Daily QNZDINR=R 31/12/2009 - 14/04/2010 (GMT)
negative statements claiming the
Pric e Line, QNZD=, 9/04/2010, 0.7157 Pric e Line, QNZDINR=R, 9/04/2010, 31.598
NZ$ / US $ currency was 10-25% overvalued
USD INR NZ$ / Indian Rupee
Week High: 0.7174 against the US Dollar. This was seen
0.73 Week High: 31.73
Week Low: 0.6961 as temporary, as the exchange rate
Week Low: 30.90
Last Trade: 0.7157 33 may depreciate as the interest rate
0.72 Last Trade: 31.59
differential narrows with eventual
0.71 32.5 tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Indian rupee also strengthened
0.7 32 to a 19-month high against the US
Dollar, as buoyant local shares raised
0.69 31.5 expectations of more capital inflows
in the coming weeks. The dollar's
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 weakness overseas also helped the
January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 cross.
A Reuters poll of forex strategists on
Source Reuters BRIC currencies on March 30
forecasted the rupee strengthening to
43.53 against the U.S. dollar by March
2011, supported by buoyant growth in
Asia's third-biggest economy.

Gold prices rose to their

highest level this year, above
$1,160 an ounce, as a
downgrade of Greece's debt hedge against depreciation not Weekly YTD
renewed fears over the euro only of the US dollar, but of 2/04/2010 9/04/2010 Change Change
zone's financial stability, other currencies as well. (%) (%)
prompting a flight to safer Oil prices jumped to over $87
investments.. Over the past a barrel early part of the week, Crude Oil (US$) 84.87 84.96 0.11% 6.69%
several years, the US dollar (extending gains from last
and gold have often moved week) as investors bet an Gold (US$) 1120.00 1159.90 3.56% 5.84%
in opposite directions. improving U.S. job market
Recently, however, investors would herald growing crude
view gold increasingly as demand. However increased Source: Reuters
stockpiles raised worries
causing prices to retrace to $85
a barrel by end of the week.

Financial Quotes Financial Jokes

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and Insufficient Funds

flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and
betting on the unexpected.” A young college co-ed came running in tears to her
father. "Dad, you gave me some terrible financial
“Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after advice!" "I did? What did I tell you?" said the dad.
their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a "You told me to put my money in that big bank, and
great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the now that big bank is in trouble." "What are you
value of that, but they're not designed to take care of talking about? That's one of the largest banks in the
social needs.” state," he said. "there must be some mistake." "I don't
think so," she sniffed. "They just returned one of my
George Soros checks with a note saying, 'Insufficient Funds'."
- international financier

4
 Personal Finance & Investment
Newsletter
In contrast to the world’s stock
markets, foreign exchange
(forex) is traded without the
constraints of a central physical
exchange. Transactions are instead conducted via telephone or
online. With this transaction structure as its foundation plus trading
hours that extend 24 hours (minus weekends), the Foreign
Exchange Market has become by far the largest marketplace in the
world and includes trading between large banks, central banks,
governments, multinational corporations, and even retail
traders/speculators.
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 2007
the average daily turnover is around $3.2 trillion globally
($3,200,000,000,000 per day!) and that’s equivalent to:
• More than 10 times the average daily turnover of global
share markets combined1
• More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the New
York Stock Exchange2
• Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on
earth3
• An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4
1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate
2006
2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006
3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau
4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.
Market Access (The Forex Pyramid)
Unlike a stock market, where all participants have access to the
same prices, the forex market is divided into levels of access. At the
top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest
investment banking firms. Within the inter-bank market, spreads,
which are the difference between the bid(buy) and ask(sell) prices,
are razor sharp and usually unavailable, and not known to players
outside the inner circle. As you descend the levels of access, the
difference between the bid and ask prices widens. This is due to
volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for
large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the
bid and ask price. The levels of access that make up the forex
market are determined by the size of the “line” (the amount of
money with which they are trading). The top-tier inter-bank market
accounts for over half of all transactions. After that there are usually
smaller investment banks, followed by large multi-national
corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in
different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail
forex market makers. According to CNN, one retail broker estimates
retail volume at $25-50 billion daily, which is about 2% of the whole
market.
Openness of Forex Markets
There is little or no 'inside information' in the foreign exchange
markets. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual
monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary
flows caused by changes in GDP growth, inflation, interest rates,
budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A
deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released
publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to
the same news at the same time.
Retail Forex
Prior to mid 1990s, retail investors were limited in their options for
entering the forex market. They could create multiple bank
accounts, each one denominated in a different currency, and
transfer funds from one account to another in order to profit from
fluctuating exchange rates. This was troublesome because the
transaction costs incurred were large due to the small quantity of
funds being converted relative to the size of the market.
By mid to late 1990s, new market makers took advantage of
developments in web-based technology that made retail forex
trading practical. These internet-based market makers would take
the other side of retail trader’s trades. The new companies felt that
there was enough liquidity in the forex market, and eventually
within their own customer base, to guarantee markets under all but
the most unusual market conditions. These companies also created
online trading platforms that provided a quick and easy way for
individuals to buy and sell on the Forex Spot market. In addition, the
companies realized that by pooling many retail traders together,
they had the size to enter the upper echelons of the forex market,
which reduced the size of the spread. As the business grew, the
market makers were given better prices, which they then passed on
to the customer. Also, since no transaction actually led to physical
delivery to the client in online forex trading, market makers were
able to offer high amounts of leverage, up to 100:1.
Market Share of the Most Traded Currency Pairs
EUR/USD 27%
Others 33%
USD/CAD 4% USD/JPY 13%
USD/CHF 5% GBP/USD 12%
AUD/USD 6%
*Source: BIS, 2007
While the US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign exchange
transactions, there has been a marked increase in turnover
involving emerging market currencies. For the Chinese renminbi,
the Hong Kong dollar and the Indian rupee, the expansion in
turnover is likely to be related to strong economic
growth and the increasing depth and openness of domestic financial
markets in these economies.
…Continued on Page 6
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 Personal Finance & Investment
Newsletter

Forex Quotes

Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies For instance, EUR/USD is the price of Euro expressed in US dollars,
thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally quoted as in 1 Euro = 1.3500 Dollar. The first currency in the pair is
XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code referred to as the base currency, while the second currency is called
of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX is expressed. the quote currency.

Sunil Khemlani, Client Advisor

Toll Free: 0508 874 015

“This publication has been prepared on behalf of and issued by StoneBridge Securities (NZ) Limited (“StoneBridge”). This is not an offer to
deal in any financial product and is not specific advice for any particular investor. StoneBridge believes that any information or advice
(including any recommendation) contained in this publication is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability, and is
not liable for the future performance of transactions or for any loss or damage arising in connection with this publication. A full Disclosure
Statement in accordance with the Securities Markets Act 1988 is available free of charge on request. ”

New Zealand Trade and Enterprise commissioned the Nielsen
Company to conduct research into the perceptions of New
Zealand business culture and values in selected overseas
markets. Below is a summary of the research carried out in India
(as found on nzte.govt.nz):
2. Reluctance to understand Indian culture, consumer needs and
market requirements.
3. An inflexible “take it or leave it” approach
4. Low availability of information about New Zealand products
and businesses. Lack of marketing and promotional material

“Good ethics but no business appetite”
• On the surface, Indian business culture has
much in common with New Zealand’s as both
are marked by resourcefulness. However
Indian business is underpinned by long term
relationships and associated loyalty, flexibility
to meet market needs, and general enjoyment
in business interactions – none of which are
evident in New Zealand business culture.
• Three broad stages of decision making seen
in other countries apply to India in a broad
sense:
1. Awareness – New Zealand must be on the radar in order to
progress to the consideration stage
2. Consideration – country is only important here if it offers a
competitive advantage
3. Final decision – based on the robustness of the business case
and supporting relationships
• There is low awareness of New Zealand’s business capability
and a perception that while New Zealanders may have the ability,
they have no appetite for business.
“While the whole world is racing, New Zealand is pacing”
• Low business appetite is evident in New Zealand businesses
through
1. A preference for transactional rather than long term
relationships. This also indicates a high level of risk averseness
and suggests weak negotiation skills.
• English is widely spoken in India and businesses perceive this
should make it easier to partner with New
Zealand than with other Asian countries, where
language differences can be a barrier. However
the overall perception is that New Zealand is
not interested in doing business with India,
despite there being fewer language barriers
than with other countries.
• Meeting India’s market volume requirements
will always be a challenge for New Zealand
businesses, but could be overcome by
partnership and co-operation. However a focus
on independence and refusal to work with
others to match required volumes means New Zealand
businesses are losing out.
• To improve relationships with Indian businesses, New Zealand
businesses need to take the following steps:
1. Spend time learning about Indian culture and market
requirements
2. Understand and respect Indian business regulations
and adapt to meet requirements
3. Be proactive in promoting themselves to Indian
businesses, be willing to form long term relationships
and enjoy the process of doing business
4. Be flexible enough to partner with other New Zealand
companies to meet the volume requirements for the
Indian market
• Increasing promotional and educational activities across all
sectors, supported by relevant imagery, will help to raise
awareness of New Zealand as a business partner.
6

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