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Fis Malsori
Prof. Barb Downey
April 18th, 2016
University of Missouri Fall 2016 Enrollment Forecast
Introduction
This memo serves the purpose of presenting an enrollment estimate for the Fall 2016 admissions process at the
University of Missouri. Additionally, this memo will recommend a forecasting technique to be used by the
admissions team in future estimation of enrollment.
Analysis
The data provided by Mizzou Magazine showed a positive trend and relationship between time & enrollment, that
is, enrollment constantly increased with time (exhibit 1.0). However, the time increments in the dataset were old
and irregular starting from the year 1948 to 2003, when the enrollment counts became available on a year by year
basis. Therefore, a decision to only keep the last 12 years of data was made.
First, after plotting the data points a nearly perfect positive linear relationship (R2=.9778) between time and
enrollment was observed. Hence, a time series forecast of was performed both in two and three year moving
averages as well as weighted moving averages of the same period structure. All four of these forecasting techniques
yielded a slight decrease in enrollment, however the least subjective to error being the weighted two year moving
average with a Mean Absolute Deviation of 1,003 which resulted in a forecast of roughly two students less than
last years actual. When the weighted moving average was performed, 70% of the weight was assigned to recent
periods and the remaining percentage was distributed to earlier periods (see exhibit 2.0).
Second, to resolve the issue of delay in forecast that the above mentioned method presents, Exponential Smoothing
was found to be significantly less subject to error and delay. The Mean Absolut Deviation of this technique
(MAD=880) was significantly lower than any of the moving averages, and thus proved to be more appropriate in
forecasting enrollment. Again, the weight of the Most recent Actual value was twice that of the previous forecast,
and thus yielded a forecast of 35,386 students to be enrolled at MU next fall which indicates a decrease of 62
students from last years actual enrollment of 35,448 (See exhibit 3.0).
Finally, a regression model was found to be appropriate since the models as well as the dependent variables pvalues were statistically significant at =0.05. The regression model yielded the most accurate estimate, with an R2
of 0.9778 and Mean Absolute Deviation of only 358. The model predicts that in Fall 2016, the University of
Missouri should expect 36,945 students to enroll, roughly 1500 more students than last years actual enrollment.
This estimate is significantly higher than any of the previously used methods, however, given that it has the least
exposure to error and delay, it should be used in priority of any other method used in this analysis (exhibit 3.0 &3.2).
Recommendation
After analyzing the results of this forecasting effort, I recommend that a simple or multiple regression model be
used to forecast future enrollment, given its very low error exposure as well as absence of delay. Researching for
other variables closely related to enrollment that could improve the estimation of the regression model should also
be considered.
Malsori Capital
Tel 573 554 6669
Fax 573 554 6668
www.malesoricapital.com
fkm6x2@mail.missouri.edu
APPENDIX
Exhibit 1.0
FALL ENROLLMENT
1 9 4 8 - 2 0 15
40,000
y = 348.08x - 668179
R = 0.9024
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Exhibit 2.0
Historical Data
Year
Error
Abs Value
Error^2
Forecast
Error
Abs Value
Error^2
Forecast
Error
Abs Value
Error^2
Error
Abs Value
Error^2
2003
26,805
2004
27,003
2005
27,985
26,904 -1,081
2006
28,253
27,494
-759
759
576,081 27,264
-989
989
977,462 27,690
-563
563
316,519 27,671
-582
582
339,190
2007
28,472
28,119
-353
353
124,609 27,747
-725
725
525,625 28,173
-299
299
89,640 28,074
-398
398
158,086
2008
30,200
28,363 -1,838
1,821 3,314,220
2009
31,314
29,336 -1,978
1,654 2,736,708
2010
32,009
30,757 -1,252
1,202 1,444,804
2011
33,318
31,662 -1,657
1,629 2,653,315
2012
34,255
32,664 -1,592
1,399 1,957,761
2013
34,658
33,787
-872
872
-684
684
467,993 33,843
-815
815
664,225
2014
35,441
34,457
-985
985
-904
904
817,035 34,443
-998
998
995,206
2015
35,448
35,050
-399
399
158,802 34,785
-242
242
58,516 35,166
-282
282
79,637
2016
1,081 1,168,561
35,445
26,944 -1,041
-663
663
440,011 35,206
35,182
1,041 1,084,514
35,446
35,368
MA2
MA3
WMA2
MAD
1,160
1,571
1,003
1,078
MSE
1,626,370
2,808,969
1,258,770
1,434,315
Malsori Capital
Tel 573 554 6669
Fax 573 554 6668
www.malesoricapital.com
fkm6x2@mail.missouri.edu
WMA3
Exhibit 3.0
Exponential Smoothing (Simple)
Forecast
Error
Abs Value
Error^2
Forecast
26,805
0
0
0
26,213
26,805
-198
198
39,204
27,039
26,954
-1,032
1,032
1,063,992
27,864
27,727
-526
526
276,545
28,690
28,122
-350
350
122,828
29,515
28,384
-1,816
1,816
3,296,466
30,341
29,746
-1,568
1,568
2,458,324
31,166
30,922
-1,087
1,087
1,181,517
31,992
31,737
-1,581
1,581
2,498,752
32,817
32,923
-1,332
1,332
1,774,720
33,643
33,922
-736
736
541,764
34,468
34,474
-967
967
935,111
35,294
35,199
-249
249
61,878
36,119
35,386
36,945
ES
MAD
880 MAD
MSE
1,096,239 MSE
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Regression
Error
Abs Value
-592
592
36
36
-121
121
437
437
1,043
1,043
141
141
-148
148
-17
17
-501
501
-612
612
-190
190
-147
147
671
671
Error^2
350,425
1,265
14,617
190,647
1,088,193
19,796
21,836
297
250,704
374,753
35,962
21,640
450,816
Regression
358
216,996
Exhibit 3.2
FALL ENROLLMENT
39,000
37,000
35,000
33,000
31,000
2003-2016
Weights
Old
0.10
Mid
0.20
Recent
0.70
Sum of Weights
1.00
Exponential Smoothing
Alpha (Recent)
0.75
Regression Equation
Intercept
1,627,329.5
Year
825.5
29,000
27,985
26,805
28,253
y = 825.53x - 2E+06
R = 0.9778
35,441
34,255
35,448
34,658
33,318
32,009
31,314
30,200
28,472
27,003
27,000
25,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Malsori Capital
Tel 573 554 6669
Fax 573 554 6668
www.malesoricapital.com
fkm6x2@mail.missouri.edu
2014
2016