10/30/2013

Public Opinion and Political

Socialization
Chapter 10

Public Opinion and Importance

Public opinion is what the public thinks about
an issue or a particular set of issues.

Polls are used to estimate public opinion.

Presidential polling has been around since
1916

George Gallup was the first to use scientific
polling methods to determine public opinion.

10/30/2013

Efforts to Influence Public

Opinion

Federalist Papers were one of the first major
attempts to change public opinion

Thomas Paines Common Sense and The
Crisis

Uncle Toms Cabin

Fahrenheit 911

The Earliest Public Opinion

Research

As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict
election winners using polls.

In 1883, the Boston Globe used exit polls to try to
predict winners in presidential elections.

Walter Lippmans Public Opinion (1922) looked
closely at how we measure public opinions.

Public opinion polling as we know it today was
developed in the 1930s

10/30/2013

The Earliest Public Opinion

Research

In 1916, Literary Digest mailed survey postcards
to potential voters in an attempt to predict the
outcome.

From 1920 to 1932, they predicted every presidential
election correctly.

In 1936 when they predicted that Alf Landon would beat
FDR. FDR won in a landslide, taking all but two states.

Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as
highly problematic.

Is polling always accurate?

10/30/2013

The Gallup Organization

The Gallup Organization - successfully predicted the 1936
election.

Founder George Gallup

Continued to be successful in predicting electoral
outcomes until the 2012 presidential election.

George Gallup

Dissertation on how to measure the readership of
newspapers

Expanded research to study public opinion about
politics

Increased use of polling to market products and candidates

How successful has the Gallup Poll been?

10/30/2013

The American National Election

Studies

Focuses on attitudes of the electorate

How voters voted

Party affiliation
Opinions of parties and candidates
Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential
elections

Polls - Designing the Survey

and Sample

Determining the content and phrasing of
the questions

Wording is crucial

Push Polls provide information on an opponent that would lead to
respondents to vote against the candidate

Selecting the sample

Population

Random sampling each person has the same statistical
chance of being contacted

Stratified sampling the best methoduse Census data
and contact same number of each race, ethnicity, age
range, etc

10/30/2013

Polls - Contacting Respondents

Telephone polls

Most Common

Random digit dialing survey by computers

Tracking polls people are polled 24 hours

In-person interviews

Exit polls interviews with voters after they cast their
vote on Election Day

Internet polls

Some polling companies have devised scientific
strategies to ensure that the results of Internet polling
are legitimate, but they arent to be confused with socalled Web polls that allow anyone to weigh in on a
topic.

What does a daily tracking poll look like?

10/30/2013

Polls - Analyzing the Data

Reveals implications for public policy and
political campaigns

Data analyzed by computers

Subgroups of population, such as men versus women,
age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed

Reporting the data

News organizations or campaigns

Shortcomings of Polling

Survey Error

Margin of error - Natural errors in statistical measurement; 3-5% is
considered a reasonably small rate of error

Sampling error - Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample

Limited Response Option

Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) - May not give respondents sufficient room
to answer

Feeling thermometer - Respondents rate feelings 0-100

Lack of Information

Filter questions - Gauge how much respondents know about or have
thought about an issue

Feelings stronger about some issues

Many people lack an opinion on certain policies

Policies that dont affect people directly

Policies that dont involve moral values

Foreign policy - Less likely to generate interest

Domestic policy - More likely to generate interest

10/30/2013

Forming Political Opinions

Gender - Women historically more liberal than men

Race and ethnicity - Differences among and within races and ethnicities
Age affects political socialization
Religion shapes political beliefs
Family influence - Children learn political beliefs at early age
Peers are influential in middle or high school
Political socialization in school
The Mass Media

Traditional news sourcesAmericans are turning away from them

Nontraditional news mediaTalk radio, online magazines, blogs

Cable and InternetOften skewed
Political leaders use media to influence public
President uses media as a bully pulpit
Political knowledge and political participationHave a reciprocal effect on
each other
Americans level of civic knowledgeLower than 50 years ago
Gender gapAlso affected by education, number of children, and marital
status

Do men and women think differently about

political issues?

10/30/2013

What are the ideological identifications of firstyear college students?

What is the extent of Americans political

knowledge?

10/30/2013

The Effects of Public Opinion

on Politics

Public has become more of a critical
player in national and international
politics

Polling a key part of that involvement

10