April 01, 2009| Healthcare

Fortis Healthcare (FORHEA)

EVENT UPDATE

WHATS CHANGED
PRICE TARGET...Unchanged
EPS (FY09E)...Unchanged
EPS (FY10E)...Unchanged
RATING...........................Unchanged

Eyeing controlling stake in Wockhardt

Current Price
Rs 68
Potential upside
35%

Target Price
Rs 92
Time Frame
12-15 months

OUTPERFORMER
Rashesh Shah
rashes.shah@icicidirect.com

Fortis Healthcare is eyeing a 74% stake in Wockhardt Hospitals. The company has emerged as the frontrunner to
acquire a stake in Wockhardt Hospitals for Rs 750 crore. This deal values Wockhardt Hospitals at just over Rs 1000
crore, which is quite cheap compared to its IPO valuation of over Rs 3200 crore a year back. If the deal
materialises, Fortis is likely to invest Rs 400 crore in the first phase for a 40% stake and will raise its stake to 74%
subsequently.

Objectives of this acquisition

We believe the following reasons motivated Fortis Healthcare to go ahead with this possible acquisition:

Strategic expansion in western and southern region

Impressive financials of target company
To strengthen market position and brand equity
To make its proposed rights issue more attractive for investors
To tap the opportunity of cheaper valuations

Valuations
If the deal goes through it would be beneficial for both companies especially Fortis Healthcare based on the reasons
mentioned above. Since the deal is yet to be finalised and confirmed by the management, we continue to maintain
our forecasted financials and target price of Rs 92, which we arrived at by using the DCF methodology. At this target
price, the stock is available at 86.1x and 33x its FY09E and FY10E estimates, respectively. Though the stock looks
expensive on a P/E multiple basis, considering the companys financial turnaround, the managements aggressive
expansion strategy, low debt to equity and enough liquidity, the stock commands a premium compared to its peer
companies.
Exhibit 1: Financial Summary
Net Sales
Operating Profit
Net Profit
Operating Margins
Net Profit Margins
Diluted EPS(Rs.)
RoCE
RoE

FY07
512.4
48.5
-98.1
9.5%
NA
-5.4
-4.7%
-26.6%

FY08
507.1
20.6
-55.5
4.1%
NA
-2.4
-1.8%
-4.9%

FY09E
630.8
89.7
24.1
14.2%
3.8%
1.1
3.1%
2.4%

FY10E
914.6
122.2
63.0
13.4%
6.9%
2.8
5.3%
6.0%

Note: Not adjusted for proposed stake buy

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect | Equity Research

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Objectives of acquisition:

Strategic expansion in western and southern region

Fortis currently has a strong presence in north India with over 60% of its total bed capacity based in this
region. Its two major upcoming projects are also located in Delhi and Gurgaon. These are expected to get
launched by the end of FY10 and FY11, respectively. In contrast, Wockhardt only has a presence in the west
and south region with over 70% of its total revenues coming in from hospitals located in Bangalore and
Mumbai. Through this deal, Fortis would be able to tap the markets in the west and south region. Fortis is
also currently working on its new hospital project at Vashi with a total bed capacity of 150. This is expected to
get completed by Q2FY10
Exhibit 2: Existing locations: Fortis Healthcare

Exhibit 3: Existing locations: Wockhardt Hospital

1400
1200

600

1000

400

800
600

200

400
200

Total Beds

Kolkatta

Surat

Bhavnagar

Nagpur

Nashik

Rajkot

Hyderabad

Total Beds

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Bangalore

Raipur

Bangalore

Mauritius

Mumbai

Kota

Chennai

Jaipur

Punjab

NCR

Mumbai

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Impressive financial records of target company

Wockhardt Hospitals has maintained higher operating margins of over 16% in the past three years compared
to the operating margins of Fortis Healthcare, currently at 12%. However, on account of its higher debt equity
ratio of about 5.2:1, Wockhardts net profit margins have remained in the range of 5-7%. Through this stake
buy, Fortis would be able to improve its net profit margins and, thereby, its return ratios, going forward
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
Net Sales
Operating Profit
Net Profit
Operating Margin
Net Profit Margin
Outstanding Shares
Diluted EPS (Rs)
RoCE
RoE

FY05
129.1
21.64
1.41
16.80%
1.10%
2.5
0.56
17.0%
5.1%

FY06
158.68
28.25
13.93
17.80%
8.80%
5
2.79
15.7%
33.2%

FY07
236.48
39.28
15.59
16.60%
6.60%
5
3.12
11.4%
27.1%

9M FY08
259.48
53.96
7.31
20.80%
2.80%
7.43
0.98
10.7%
10.4%

Source: RHP, ICICIdirect.com Research

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To strengthen market position and brand equity

Fortis has aggressively used the acquisition route to strengthen its position in the market and its brand
value, which is quite visible from the past data. The acquisition of Escorts (EHIRC) in 2005 and
International Hospitals (IHL) in 2006 has helped the company to become a stronger player in cardiology
and other specialities in North India. In September 2007, the company also acquired a controlling stake in
the Chennai-based Malar Hospital. This strategy works for the company when expansion is desired at a
faster pace. Also, a running hospital would start generating revenue from the day of the acquisition

To make its proposed rights issue more attractive for investors

The Fortis management has approved a Rs 1,000-crore rights issue and warrant issue for an unspecified
amount in December 2008 for its expansions. Due to huge equity dilution post rights issue, we expect
some pressure on its EPS for FY10E. However, with the utilisation of the rights issue proceeds in this
proposed acquisition instead of utilising the whole rights issue proceeds in greenfield projects, Fortis
would certainly be able to improve its profitability and EPS since this acquisition would start generating
returns from the day of acquisitions. This, in turn, would make its forthcoming rights issue more attractive
to investors. It is to be noted that the hospital industry, being capital intensive, requires nearly two to
three years in setting up a hospital under greenfield expansions

To tap the opportunity of attractive valuations

The ongoing slowdown has thrown up an opportunity for cash rich companies looking for expansions at
fair valuations. This is clearly evident from the fact that Wockhardt is currently being valued at Rs 1,000
crore (i.e. EV of Rs 72 lakh per bed) from its previous IPO valuation of over Rs 3,200 crore (i.e. EV of Rs 1.8
crore per bed), representing a reduction of over 60% in its valuations. After Ranbaxys stake sale, the
promoters of the company are now fuelled with ample liquidity. Also, the promoters hold nearly 68%
stake in the company. At the same time, the Wockhardt group needs funds to repay its substantial debt,
which is more than 2.5 times its total equity. Hence, if the deal goes through it would be financially
beneficial for both Wockhardt and Fortis. The proposed deal would also be strategically beneficial for
Fortis

Concerns:

Valuation of Wockhardt still higher

The deal values Wockhardt Hospitals at Rs 1000 crore. Since the promoters are selling their stake in the
company, we are assuming that the debt burden of Wockhardt, which is at around Rs.435 crore (as per its
DRHP), would be passed on to Fortis. Hence, the enterprise value comes to Rs 1435 crore. On a per bed
basis it works out to Rs 72 lakh, which we feel is 16% higher compared to the current market EV per bed
of Rs 62-65 lakh. However, considering the abovementioned key positives, the valuation is still justified
even with the premium of over 15%

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations.

ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current
market price and then categorises them as Outperformer, Performer, Hold and
Underperformer. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target
price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Outperformer (OP): 20% or more;
Performer (P): Between 10% and 20%;
Hold (H): +10% return;
Underperformer (U): -10% or more;
Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicidirect.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
Gr. Floor, Mafatlal House,
163, HT Parekh Marg,
Backbay Reclamation
Churchgate,
Mumbai 400 020
research@icicidirect.com
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