CHAPTER1

PRELIMINARY
1.1 Background
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by protozoan parasites which is a class
of plasmodium that live and breed in human red blood cells. This disease is
naturally transmitted by the bite of the Anopheles mosquito. Malaria is a
disease that is spread across several regions of the world. Generally places that
are contained in the malaria-prone developing countries which do not have
shelters or disposal of water, resulting in stagnant water and can be used as an
ideal place for mosquitoes to lay eggs. Malaria is caused by parasites of the
genus Plasmodium. There are four types of plasmodium that can cause malaria,
which plasmodium falciparum with an incubation period of 7-14 days,
plasmodium vivax with an incubation period of 8-14 days, plasmodium oval
with an incubation period of 8-14 days, and Plasmodium malariae with an
incubation period of 7-30 days [6]. The parasites are transmitted to humans
through the bite of a mosquito of the genus anopheles.Gejala incurred include
fever, anemia, chills, and sweating. To diagnose someone suffering from
malaria is to check whether there is plasmodium in blood samples. But that is
often found in cases of malaria is plasmodium falciparum and plasmodium
vivax. Based on The World Malaria Report 2010, a total of more than 1 million
people, including ana-child dies of malaria every year of which 80%
2kematian occur in Africa and 15% in Asia (including Eastern Europe).
Overall there are 3.2 Billion people with malaria in the world located in 107
countries. Malaria is the world's most numerous in Africa, south of the Sahara,
where many children die of malaria and malaria reappeared in Central Asia,
Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. In Indonesia, as one of the countries that
are still at risk of Malaria (Risk-Malaria), in 2009terdapat about 2 million cases
of clinical malaria and 350 thousand cases were confirmed positive. While in
2010 to 1.75 million cases and 311 thousand of them in a positive
confirmation. Until the year 2010 are still outbreaks and increased cases of
malaria in 8 Provinces, 13 districts, 15 districts, 30 villages with a total of 1256
patients with a positive malaria patients, 74 deaths. This was an increase
compared to the year 2009, where outbreaks in seven provinces, seven
districts, 7 subdistricts and 10 villages with the number of patients with 23
deaths in 1107 [6]. Of the few cases of malaria have occurred in the world then
there are the studies that mengkontruksikan a mathematical model for malaria.

Malaria can be transmitted through the bite of mosquitoes that carry the
parasite plasmodium. Transfer can occur either parasite from mosquitoes to
humans or from humans who are vulnerable have been infected susceptible to
the mosquito. so factor pentingpada transmission of malaria is human and
mosquito. The spread of malaria usually described by the model of RossMacDonald (RM). However, this model only suitable for the deployment of
plasmodium falciparum because of the possibility of the disease does not recur.
One of the authors present the I-Ming Tang (IMT) has been introduced a
simple mathematical model to describe 3 deployment of plasmodium vivax
malaria. In this model, there is a dormant class where no merozoites in the
blood, but there are still hypnozoit in the liver [10]. In previous studies have
discussed about malaria deployment model that relies on human populations
and mosquitoes (Renny, 2009) which analyzed malaria research in general
denganmodel Seir while research will be made more devoted to the
plasmodium vivax malaria with models Sidr. According to developmental
biology to determine most of the necessary mathematical models plasmodium
vivax transmission cycle of humans to disease caused by this parasite. When a
mosquito bites a human skin, Plasmodium sporozoites that are in phase.
Sporozoites will then head to the liver (liver) and formed merozoites in very
much. This form is then entered into the bloodstream and infect blood cells
red. Most of sporozoites in liver cells that can form hipnozoit last for years,
and this form will cause relapsing malaria [2]. In the model of epidemic
plasmodium vivax malaria, the population is divided into four groups: healthy
individuals but can be infected with the disease (susceptible), a group of
individuals who are infected and can be cured of the disease (infected), a group
of individuals who are infected and can be cured but can recur ( dormant) and a
group of individuals who have recovered (recovered). Broadly speaking, this
model describes the flow of the spread of disease from the four groups of
susceptible individuals become infected, individuals infectedyang withstand
the disease will be cured but it will recur if hypnozoitnya active again entering
the dormant group. Furthermore, infected individuals are able to survive the
disease will be cured and enter the group recovered and has permanent
immunity. In malaria, there are periods of time before people become infected.
The disease can enter an endemic condition, which is defined as a condition in
which the disease spreads in a region with a very long period of time. Due to
the spread of the disease within a very long time, the changes in the population
due to births and deaths. Therefore, the birth and death of factors need to be

considered in the model. In populations air zero closed, migration does not
occur in the region so that the effect of migration was not considered in the
model. Although the math does not cure the illness, but mathematics can help
in predicting and controlling the epidemic in the future. The danger of the
spread of infectious diseases that can not be controlled, requires an effort to
learn the patterns of the epidemic. With mathematics obtained one solution
resolution of this issue. First, the pattern of the epidemic could be described as
mathematically approached the true state through a model mathematics.
Second, the math will be analyzed the pattern of the epidemic through model
has been formulated, and then interpret the results of analysis
into the real situation. Then from these models will be analyzed solution 5
equilibrium and behavior of the system can be determined by analyze the
stability of the equilibrium solution.
1.2 issues
Issues to be discussed in this thesis is how changes in patients with
plasmodium vivax malaria on time and knowing plasmodium vivax malaria
epidemics based on mathematical analysis.
1.3 Restricting the problem
Given that the problems spread of this disease is very complex, there should be
limitations on the scope of the problem for clarify and expand the problem that
is only focused on mathematical models on the spread of malaria plasmodium
vivax made by Puntani Pongsumpun and I-Ming Tang, and is limited to a
discussion of the analysis of the stability of the epidemic models (migration
effect is negligible).
1.4 Writing purpose
The purpose of this thesis is as follows :
a. Mengetahui mathematical model of the spread of plasmodium vivax
malaria.6
b. Menentukan equilibrium and stability analysis of the model so that it can be
seen from the behavior of the model.
c. Menginterpretasikan the model by applying a sample of cases.

1.5 method Discussion

The method used in this thesis is the study literature. The steps taken to
achieve the objectives include:
1. Formulation modelPengenalan on the modeling of the spread of disease
based on the literature obtained from the internet and books that
related to the dynamic model of the spread of disease. formulation models
done by studying the situation, behavior, and events in the population. Then
determine the limitations, assumptions and parameters required for the model
formulation. Plasmodium vivax deployment models discussed in this thesis
refers to the model proposed by Puntani Pongsumpun and I-Ming Tang in his
journal in 2007.
2. Analysis of the model from the model that has been formulated into
differential equations determined equilibrium point. Each system has two
kind of equilibrium that is disease-free equilibrium point and 7
endemic equilibrium point. Then it will be determined number
0R basic reproduction of each model. To know
the behavior of the spread of disease is necessary to analyze the stability of the
equilibrium point is obtained and is determined by the basic reproduction
number
0R. For global stability analysis used Jacobian matrix.
3. Simulation models modelDari obtained and to declare the value of each
parameter can be illustrated how the behavior of each
tions. The data used here was obtained from journals because of limited data in
Semarang Health Office.
4. Interpretation of the model Interpreting the results obtained from the
reference data to determine the behavior of the spread of disease.
1.6 Systematics Writing
Systematics of this thesis includes four chapters, namely introduction,
supporting the theory, discussion, and cover. Chapter I is an introductory
chapter which covers the background, problem formulation, barring problems,
the purpose of writing, the method of discussion, and systematic writing.
Chapter II is supporting the theory chapter contains material covering basic
mathematical models, determinants, eigenvalues, differential equation, the
equilibrium point, and the criteria of Routh-Hurwitz. Chapter III is the eighth
chapter discusses discussion Sidr that include models, models Sidr, stability

analysis, and simulation models. Chapter IV is the closing chapter contains

conclusions.