What is ecology?

The word ecology comes from two Greek words ‘Oikos’ means house or residence and
‘logos’ means knowledge. So ecology means knowledge about residence. In Bengali it is
said ‘environmental science’. The word ‘ecology’ was first use in 1869 by German
biologist Ernst Hackel. He defines ecology as the relationship of all animals with all
organic and inorganic environments. In 1963 E. Odum said: “Ecology is the study of
structure and function of nature.” In 1961 scientist Andrewarth said: “Ecology is the
scientific study of the distribution and abundance of organisms.” According to Charles J.
Krebs (1994) : “Ecology is the scientific study of the interactions that determine the
distribution abundance of organisms.”

Ecology is usually considered as a branch of biology, the general science that studies
living organisms. It is associated with the highest levels of biological organization,
including the individual organism, the population, the ecological community, the
ecosystem and the biosphere as a whole. When referring to the study of a single species, a
distinction is often made between its "ecology" and its "biology". For example, "polar
bear biology" might include the study of the polar bear's physiology, morphology,
pathology and ontogeny, whereas "polar bear ecology" would include a study of its prey
species, its population and met population status, distribution, dependence on
environmental conditions, etc.

Because of its focus on the interrelations between organisms and their environment,
ecology is a multidisciplinary science that draws on many other branches, including
geology and geography, meteorology, soil science, genetics, chemistry, physics,
mathematics and statistics. Due to its breadth of scope, ecology is considered by some to
be a holistic science, one that over-arches older disciplines such as biology which in this
view become sub-disciplines contributing to ecological knowledge. It has been argued
that the mechanistic models which have driven the development of most other sciences
are inappropriate for unraveling the complex interactions in most ecosystems, and that
progress in ecology is better served by a central paradigm driven by information theory
and complexity theory.

Ecology is also a highly applied science, especially with respect to issues of natural
resource management. Efforts related to wildlife conservation, habitat management,
mitigation of ecological impacts of environmental pollution, ecosystem restoration,
species reintroductions, fisheries, forestry and game management is often the direct
domain of applied ecology. Urban development, agricultural and public health issues are
also often informed by ecological perspectives and analysis.
The science of ecology includes everything from global processes (above), the study of
various marine and terrestrial habitats (middle) to individual inter specific interactions
like predation and pollination (below).

The environment of an organism includes all external factors, including abiotic ones such
as climate and geology, and biotic factors, including members of the same species
(conspecifics) and other species that share a habitat. If the general life science of biology
is viewed as a hierarchy of levels of organization, from molecular processes, to cells,
tissues and organs, and finally to the individual, the population and the ecosystem, then
the study of the latter three levels belongs within the purview of ecology.

Examples of objects of ecological study include: Population processes, including

reproductive behavior, mortality, bioenergetics and migrations, inter-specific interactions
such as predation, competition, parasitism and mutualism, plant and animal community
structures and their function and resilience, and biogeochemical cycling. Because of its
vast scope, ecological science is often closely related to other disciplines. Thus,
molecular ecology addresses ecological questions using tools from genetics, pale ecology
uses tools from archeology, and theoretical ecologists use often highly complex
mathematical models to explore how ecosystems and their elements function.

Aside from pure scientific inquiry, ecology is also a highly applied science. Much of
natural resource management, such as forestry, fisheries, wildlife management and
habitat conservation is directly related to ecological sciences and many problems in
agriculture, urban development and public health are informed by ecological
considerations.

The term "ecology" has also been appropriated for philosophical ideologies like social
ecology and deep ecology and is sometimes used as a synonym for the natural
environment or environmentalism. Likewise "ecological" is often taken in the sense of
environmentally friendly.

Aside from pure scientific inquiry, ecology is also a highly applied science. Much of
natural resource management, such as forestry, fisheries, wildlife management and
habitat conservation is directly related to ecological sciences and many problems in
agriculture, urban development and public health are informed by ecological
considerations.

The term "ecology" has also been appropriated for philosophical ideologies like social
ecology and deep ecology and is sometimes used as a synonym for the natural
environment or environmentalism. Likewise "ecological" is often taken in the sense of
environmentally friendly.

Historical roots of ecology

Ernst Haeckel (left) and Eugenius Warming (right), two early founders of ecology.

Ecology as a scientific discipline is relatively young, reaching prominence mostly in the

second half of the 20th century. However, systematic ecological studies can trace roots to
ancient times, with Aristotle and Theophrastus, for example, making early observations
on animal migrations and plant biogeography respectively. Several notable 19th century
scientists such as Alexander Humboldt (1769 – 1859), Charles Darwin (1809 – 1882),
Alfred Russel Wallace (1823 – 1913) and Karl Möbius (1825 – 1908) made many
important contributions, from laying down the foundation of biogeography to identifying
an interacting groups of organisms as a functionally connected community (biocoenosis).
The term "ecology" itself (German: Oekologie) was first coined by the German biologist
Ernst Haeckel in 1866, who defined it as "the comprehensive science of the relationship
of the organism to the environment." The first significant textbook on the subject
(together with the first university course) was written by the Danish botanist, Eugenius
Warming. For this early work, Warming is sometimes identified as the founder of
ecology.

Disciplines

Ecology is a broad discipline comprising many sub-disciplines. A common, broad

classification, moving from lowest to highest complexity, where complexity is defined as
the number of entities and processes in the system under study, is:

• Ecophysiology examines how the physiological functions of organisms influence

the way they interact with the environment, both biotic and abiotic.
• Behavioral ecology examines the roles of behavior in enabling an animal to adapt
to its environment.
• Population ecology studies the dynamics of populations of a single species.
• Community ecology (or synecology) focuses on the interactions between species
within an ecological community.
• Ecosystem ecology studies the flows of energy and matter through the biotic and
abiotic components of ecosystems.
• Systems ecology is an interdisciplinary field focusing on the study, development,
and organization of ecological systems from a holistic perspective.
• Landscape ecology examines processes and relationship in a spatially explicit
manner, often across multiple ecosystems or very large geographic areas.
• Evolutionary ecology studies ecology in a way that explicitly considers the
evolutionary histories of species and their interactions.
• Political ecology connects politics and economy to problems of environmental
control and ecological change.

Ecology can also be sub-divided according to the species of interest into fields such as
animal ecology, plant ecology, insect ecology, and so on. Another frequent method of
subdivision is by biome studied, e.g., Arctic ecology (or polar ecology), tropical ecology,
desert ecology, marine ecology, etc. The primary technique used for investigation is often
used to subdivide the discipline into groups such as chemical ecology, molecular ecology,
field ecology, quantitative ecology, theoretical ecology, and so forth.

Subdivisions of ecology are not mutually exclusive; indeed, very few exist in isolation.
Many of them overlap, complement and inform each other. For example, the population
ecology of an organism is a consequence of its behavioral ecology and intimately tied to
its community ecology. Methods from molecular ecology might inform the study of the
population, and all kinds of data are modeled and analyzed using quantitative ecology
techniques, often motivated by basic results in theoretical ecology.
Fundamental principles

Levels of organization

Some of the biodiversity of a coral reef

Ecology can be studied at a wide range of levels, from large to small scale. These levels
of ecological organization, as well as an example of a question ecologists would ask at
each level, include:

• Biosphere: “What role does concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide play in

the regulation of global temperature?"
• Region: "How has geological history influenced regional diversity within certain
groups of organisms?"
• Landscape: "How do vegetated corridors affect the rate of movement by
mammals among isolated fragments?"
• Ecosystem: "How does fire affect nutrient availability in grassland ecosystems?"
• Community: "How does disturbance influence the number of mammal species in
African grasslands?"
• Interactions: "What evolutionary benefit do zebras gain by allowing birds to
remove parasites?"
• Population: "What factors control zebra populations?"
• Individual Organism: "How do zebras regulate internal water balance?"
o These levels range from broadest to most specific.

Biosphere
For modern ecologists, ecology can be studied at several levels: population level
(individuals of the same species in the same or similar environment), biocoenosis level
(or community of species), ecosystem level, and biosphere level.

The outer layer of the planet Earth can be divided into several compartments: the
hydrosphere (or sphere of water), the lithosphere (or sphere of soils and rocks), and the
atmosphere (or sphere of the air). The biosphere (or sphere of life), sometimes described
as "the fourth envelope," is all living matter on the planet or that portion of the planet
occupied by life. It reaches well into the other three spheres, although there are no
permanent inhabitants of the atmosphere. Relative to the volume of the Earth, the
biosphere is only the very thin surface layer that extends from 11,000 meters below sea
level to 15,000 meters above.

It is thought that life first developed in the hydrosphere, at shallow depths, in the photic
zone. (Recently, though, a competing theory has emerged, that life originated around
hydrothermal vents in the deeper ocean. See Origin of life.) Multicellular organisms then
appeared and colonized benthic zones. Photosynthetic organisms gradually produced the
chemically unstable oxygen-rich atmosphere that characterizes our planet. Terrestrial life
developed later, protected from UV rays by the ozone layer. Diversification of terrestrial
species is thought to be increased by the continents drifting apart, or alternately,
colliding. Biodiversity is expressed at the ecological level (ecosystem), population level
(intraspecific diversity), species level (specific diversity), and genetic level.

The biosphere contains great quantities of elements such as carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen,
and oxygen. Other elements, such as phosphorus, calcium, and potassium, are also
essential to life, yet are present in smaller amounts. At the ecosystem and biosphere
levels, there is a continual recycling of all these elements, which alternate between the
mineral and organic states.

Although there is a slight input of geothermal energy, the bulk of the functioning of the
ecosystem is based on the input of solar energy. Plants and photosynthetic
microorganisms convert light into chemical energy by the process of photosynthesis,
which creates glucose (a simple sugar) and releases free oxygen. Glucose thus becomes
the secondary energy source that drives the ecosystem. Some of this glucose is used
directly by other organisms for energy. Other sugar molecules can be converted to
molecules such as amino acids. Plants use some of this sugar, concentrated in nectar, to
entice pollinators to aid them in reproduction.

Cellular respiration is the process by which organisms (like mammals) break the glucose
back down into its constituents, water and carbon dioxide, thus regaining the stored
energy the sun originally gave to the plants. The proportion of photosynthetic activity of
plants and other photo synthesizers to the respiration of other organisms determines the
specific composition of the Earth's atmosphere, particularly its oxygen level. Global air
currents mix the atmosphere and maintain nearly the same balance of elements in areas of
intense biological activity and areas of slight biological activity.
Water is also exchanged between the hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and
biosphere in regular cycles. The oceans are large tanks that store water, ensure thermal
and climatic stability, and facilitate the transport of chemical elements thanks to large
oceanic currents.

For a better understanding of how the biosphere works, and various dysfunctions related
to human activity, American scientists attempted to simulate the biosphere in a small-
scale model, called Biosphere II.

Ecosystem

The Daintree Rainforest in Queensland, Australia is an example of a forest ecosystem.

A central principle of ecology is that each living organism has an ongoing and continual
relationship with every other element that makes up its environment. The sum total of
interacting living organisms (the biocoenosis) and their non-living environment (the
biotope) in an area is termed an ecosystem. Studies of ecosystems usually focus on the
movement of energy and matter through the system.

Almost all ecosystems run on energy captured from the sun by primary producers via
photosynthesis. This energy then flows through the food chains to primary consumers
(herbivores who eat and digest the plants), and on to secondary and tertiary consumers
(either carnivores or omnivores). Energy is lost to living organisms when it is used by the
organisms to do work, or is lost as waste heat.

Matter is incorporated into living organisms by the primary producers. Photosynthetic

plants fix carbon from carbon dioxide and nitrogen from atmospheric nitrogen or nitrates
present in the soil to produce amino acids. Much of the carbon and nitrogen contained in
ecosystems is created by such plants, and is then consumed by secondary and tertiary
consumers and incorporated into them selves.

Nutrients are usually returned to the ecosystem via decomposition. The entire movement
of chemicals in an ecosystem is termed a biogeochemical cycle, and includes the carbon
and nitrogen cycle.
Ecosystems of any size can be studied; for example, a rock and the plant life growing on
it might be considered an ecosystem. This rock might be within a plain, with many such
rocks, small grass, and grazing animals -- also an ecosystem. This plain might be in the
tundra, which is also an ecosystem (although once they are of this size, they are generally
termed ecozones or biomes). In fact, the entire terrestrial surface of the earth, all the
matter which composes it, the air that is directly above it, and all the living organisms
living within it can be considered as one, large ecosystem.

Ecosystems can be roughly divided into terrestrial ecosystems (including forest

ecosystems, steppes, savannas, and so on), freshwater ecosystems (lakes, ponds and
rivers), and marine ecosystems, depending on the dominant biotope.

Dynamics and stability

Much attention has been given to preserving the natural characteristics of Hopetoun Falls,
Australia, while allowing ample access for visitors.

Ecological factors that affect dynamic change in a population or species in a given

ecology or environments are usually divided into two groups: abiotic and biotic.

Abiotic factors are geological, geographical, hydrological, and climatological

parameters. A biotope is an environmentally uniform region characterized by a particular
set of abiotic ecological factors. Specific abiotic factors include:

• Water, which is at the same time an essential element to life and a milieu.
• Air, which provides oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide to living species and
allows the dissemination of pollen and spores
• Soil, at the same time a source of nutriment and physical support
o Soil pH, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus content, ability to retain water,
and density are all influential
• Temperature, which should not exceed certain extremes, even if tolerance to heat
is significant for some species
• Light, which provides energy to the ecosystem through photosynthesis
• Natural disasters can also be considered abiotic

Biocenose, or community, is a group of populations of plants, animals, microorganisms.

Each population is the result of procreations between individuals of the same species and
cohabitation in a given place and for a given time. When a population consists of an
insufficient number of individuals, that population is threatened with extinction; the
extinction of a species can approach when all biocenoses composed of individuals of the
species are in decline. In small populations, consanguinity (inbreeding) can result in
reduced genetic diversity, which can further weaken the biocenose.

Biotic ecological factors also influence biocenose viability; these factors are considered
as either intraspecific or interspecific relations.

Intraspecific relations are those that are established between individuals of the same
species, forming a population. They are relations of cooperation or competition, with
division of the territory, and sometimes organization in hierarchical societies.

An antlion lies in wait under its pit trap, built in dry dust under a building, awaiting
unwary insects that fall in. Many pest insects are partly or wholly controlled by other
insect predators.

Inter-specific relations—interactions between different species—are numerous, and

usually described according to their beneficial, detrimental, or neutral effect (for
example, mutualism (relation ++) or competition (relation --). The most significant
relation is the relation of predation (to eat or to be eaten), which leads to the essential
concepts in ecology of food chains (for example, the grass is consumed by the herbivore,
itself consumed by a carnivore, itself consumed by a carnivore of larger size). A high
predator to prey ratio can have a negative influence on both the predator and prey
biocenoses in that low availability of food and high death rate prior to sexual maturity
can decrease (or prevent the increase of) populations of each, respectively. Selective
hunting of species by humans that leads to population decline is one example of a high
predator to prey ratio in action. Other inter-specific relations include parasitism,
infectious disease, and competition for limited resources, which can occur when two
species share the same ecological niche.

The existing interactions between the various living beings go along with a permanent
mixing of mineral and organic substances, absorbed by organisms for their growth, their
maintenance, and their reproduction, to be finally rejected as waste.

These permanent recycling of the elements (in particular carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen) as
well as the water are called biogeochemical cycles. They guarantee a durable stability of
the biosphere (at least when unchecked human influence and extreme weather or
geological phenomena are left aside). This self-regulation, supported by negative
feedback controls, ensures the potentiality of the ecosystems. It is shown by the very
stable concentrations of most elements of each compartment. This is referred to as
homeostasis. The ecosystem also tends to evolve to a state of ideal balance, called the
climax, which is reached after a succession of events (for example a pond can become a
peat bog).

Spatial relationships and subdivisions of land

Ecosystems are not isolated from each other, but are interrelated. For example, water may
circulate between ecosystems by means of a river or ocean current. Water itself, as a
liquid medium, even defines ecosystems. Some species, such as salmon or freshwater
eels, move between marine systems and fresh-water systems. These relationships
between the ecosystems lead to the concept of a biome.

A biome is a homogeneous ecological formation that exists over a large region, such as
tundra or steppes. The biosphere comprises all of the Earth's biomes -- the entirety of
places where life is possible -- from the highest mountains to the depths of the oceans.

Biomes correspond rather well to subdivisions distributed along the latitudes, from the
equator towards the poles, with differences based on the physical environment (for
example, oceans or mountain ranges) and the climate. Their variation is generally related
to the distribution of species according to their ability to tolerate temperature, dryness, or
both. For example, one may find photosynthetic algae only in the photic part of the ocean
(where light penetrates), whereas conifers are mostly found in mountains.

Though this is a simplification of a more complicated scheme, latitude and altitude

approximate a good representation of the distribution of biodiversity within the
biosphere. Very generally, the richness of biodiversity (as well for animal as for plant
species) is decreasing most rapidly near the equator and less rapidly as one approach the
poles.

The biosphere may also be divided into eco-zones, which are very well defined today and
primarily follow the continental borders. The eco-zones are themselves divided into eco-
regions, though there is not agreement on their limits.

Ecosystem productivity

In an ecosystem, the connections between species are generally related to their role in the
food chain. There are three categories of organisms:
The leaf is the primary site of photosynthesis in plants.

• Producers or Autotrophs -- Usually plants or cyanobacteria that are capable of

photosynthesis but could be other organisms such as the bacteria near ocean vents
that are capable of chemosynthesis.
• Consumers or Heterotrophs -- Animals, which can be primary consumers
(herbivorous), or secondary or tertiary consumers (carnivorous and omnivores).
• Decomposers or Detritivores -- Bacteria, fungi, and insects which degrade organic
matter of all types and restore nutrients to the environment. The producers will
then consume the nutrients, completing the cycle.

These relations form sequences, in which each individual consumes the preceding one
and is consumed by the one following, in what are called food chains or food networks.
In a food network, there will be fewer organisms at each level as one follows the links of
the network up the chain, forming a pyramid.

These concepts lead to the idea of biomass (the total living matter in an ecosystem),
primary productivity (the increase in organic compounds), and secondary productivity
(the living matter produced by consumers and the decomposers in a given time).

Fig: An ecological pyramid

These last two ideas are key, since they make it possible to evaluate the carrying capacity
-- the number of organisms that can be supported by a given ecosystem. In any food
network, the energy contained in the level of the producers is not completely transferred
to the consumers. The higher up the chain, the more energy and resources are lost. Thus,
from a purely energy and nutrient point of view, it is more efficient for humans to be
primary consumers (to subsist from vegetables, grains, legumes, fruit, etc.) than to be
secondary consumers (consuming herbivores, omnivores, or their products) and still more
so than as a tertiary consumer (consuming carnivores, omnivores, or their products). An
ecosystem is unstable when the carrying capacity is overrun.

The total productivity of ecosystems is sometimes estimated by comparing three types of

land-based ecosystems and the total of aquatic ecosystems. Slightly over half of primary
production is estimated to occur on land, and the rest in the ocean.

• The forests (1/3 of the Earth's land area) contain dense biomasses and are very
productive.
• Savannas, meadows, and marshes (1/3 of the Earth's land area) contain less dense
biomasses, but are productive. These ecosystems represent the major part of what
humans depend on for food.
• Extreme ecosystems in the areas with more extreme climates -- deserts and semi-
deserts, tundra, alpine meadows, and steppes -- (1/3 of the Earth's land area) have
very sparse biomasses and low productivity
• Finally, the marine and fresh water ecosystems (3/4 of Earth's surface) contain
very sparse biomasses (apart from the coastal zones).

Ecosystems differ in biomass (grams carbon per square meter) and productivity (grams
carbon per square meter per day), and direct comparisons of biomass and productivity
may not be valid. An ecosystem such as that found in taiga may be high in biomass, but
slow growing and thus low in productivity. Ecosystems are often compared on the basis
of their turnover (production ratio) or turnover time which is the reciprocal of turnover.

Humanity's actions over the last few centuries have seriously reduced the amount of the
Earth covered by forests (deforestation), and have increased agro-ecosystems. In recent
decades, an increase in the areas occupied by extreme ecosystems has occurred, such as
desertification.

Ecological crisis
Fig: The retreat of Aletsch Glacier in the Swiss Alps (situation in 1979, 1991 and 2002),
due to global warming.

Generally, an ecological crisis occurs with the loss of adaptive capacity when the
resilience of an environment or of a species or a population evolves in a way
unfavourable to coping with perturbations that interfere with that ecosystem, landscape or
species survival (Note: The concept of resilience is not universally accepted in ecology,
and moreso represents a contingent within the field that take a holist view of the
environment. There are also many ecologists that take a reductionistic perspective and
that believe that the environment, at base, is indeterministic). It may be that the
environment quality degrades compared to the species needs, after a change in an abiotic
ecological factor (for example, an increase of temperature, less significant rainfalls)[citation
needed]
. It may be that the environment becomes unfavourable for the survival of a species
(or a population) due to an increased pressure of predation (for example overfishing).
Lastly, it may be that the situation becomes unfavourable to the quality of life of the
species (or the population) due to a rise in the number of individuals (overpopulation).

Ecological crises vary in length and severity, occurring within a few months or taking as
long as a few million years. They can also be of natural or anthropic origin. They may
relate to one unique species or to many species, as in an Extinction event. Lastly, an
ecological crisis may be local (as an oil spill) or global (a rise in the sea level due to
global warming).

According to its degree of endemism, a local crisis will have more or less significant
consequences, from the death of many individuals to the total extinction of a species.
Whatever its origin, disappearance of one or several species often will involve a rupture
in the food chain, further impacting the survival of other species.

In the case of a global crisis, the consequences can be much more significant; some
extinction events showed the disappearance of more than 90% of existing species at that
time. However, it should be noted that the disappearance of certain species, such as the
dinosaurs, by freeing an ecological niche, allowed the development and the
diversification of the mammals. An ecological crisis thus paradoxically favoured
biodiversity.

Sometimes, an ecological crisis can be a specific and reversible phenomenon at the

ecosystem scale. But more generally, the crises impact will last. Indeed, it rather is a
connected series of events that occur till a final point. From this stage, no return to the
previous stable state is possible, and a new stable state will be set up gradually (see
homeorhesy).

Lastly, if an ecological crisis can cause extinction, it can also more simply reduce the
quality of life of the remaining individuals. Thus, even if the diversity of the human
population is sometimes considered threatened (see in particular indigenous people), few
people envision human disappearance at short span. However, epidemic diseases,
famines, impact on health of reduction of air quality, food crises, reduction of living
space, accumulation of toxic or non degradable wastes, threats on keystone species (great
apes, panda, whales) are also factors influencing the well-being of people.

Due to the increases in technology and a rapidly increasing population, humans have
more influence on their own environment than any other ecosystem engineer.

Five Elements of Ecology

The contemporary thinkers of the green movement are collectively developing an

ecological world-view. It has five basic ingredients, or five key terms; they are: Gaia
(James Lovelock), Deep Ecology (Arne Naess), Permaculture (Bill Mollison),
Bioregionalism (Gary Snyder et al.) and Creation Spirituality (Matthew Fox). These five
elements give us a structure for an integrated view of Nature.

Gaia is a scientific explanation for understanding the Earth. The majority of scientists do
not see the whole Earth as one living organism, or as an interdependent and
interconnected whole. But the Gaia hypothesis is changing that. For example, my body is
one system. On the top of my head I have my hair which is totally connected with the
toe-nail in my foot. Similarly the whole Earth is one body — Gaia.

The Earth as one system has been very graphically presented to us by the pictures of the
Earth from space taken by astronauts. They saw, from space, this beautiful icon, looking
like a great work of art, all of a piece; there is no division there; you don’t see Africa or
Europe, white or black, Muslims or Christians, Arabs or Jews, poor or rich, human or
non-human, living or non-living — there is no division. You don’t see the division
between the rainforests, the oceans and the earth. All are part of one body — a planet
home.

I experienced that the living Earth as one organism in my own way when I walked around
the world. Going across the continents and the countries, across the religious boundaries
and the language boundaries, across deserts and wilderness, mountains and valleys,
across rivers and forests, was quite an experience, a similar kind of experience as if I had
gone into space and seen the Earth from space, because I saw that all those boundaries
were artificially created out of fear by the human language. If we can transcend our
perceptions and prejudices, we can see that the Earth is truly one.

The Sanskrit scholars of India believed that vasudhaiva kutumbakam which means "the
whole Earth is one family". So a tree is not a utilitarian object to build a house with, or
make furniture. A tree is a member of my family. Even a worm in the earth is not merely
a creature to create nice soil for the food to grow. The worm is a member of my family. If
we have this kind of thinking, we will not upset the balance of the Earth, we will not
destroy the fabric of nature.

Gaia is an emotional experience as well as a scientific discovery. It is a poetic expression

as well as an intellectual concept. Scientists and ordinary people can relate to Gaia
equally. Everyone knows that we depend on each other; not only on human beings, but
we depend on the worm. If worms were not in the soil working for us, we would not be
alive, we would not be able to speak, and we would not be able to stand. Whenever we
eat our delicious meal we must thank the worms without which the food would not grow.

Once we have understood that the whole Earth is one interconnected entity, and then
Deep Ecology becomes the next step. The Gaia hypothesis will not be of much use
without realizing that everything upon this Earth has intrinsic value — a tree, a worm, a
river, all and everything are good in themselves. The tree is not good because it will make
nice furniture, or a nice house, or nice firewood. Those are all useful but secondary
aspects. The most important thing is that everything upon the Earth has a deep intrinsic
value; all things maintain a deep intrinsic relationship to each other. They are good in
themselves. We have no right to think that we human beings are more important than,
say, rainforests.

There are seven elements, from which this whole universe is made: the earth, fire, water
and air are recognized as basic elements by most people in Europe, but for the Indians
and Chinese the fifth element is space. Without space we cannot exist. And the sixth one
is time; not clock time, but eternal time. And the seventh element is consciousness.
Without consciousness we would not be able to relate to anything. Here I will not ponder
on the question, whether consciousness came first and then Gaia emerged out of it, or
whether Gaia came first and produced consciousness. Perhaps it is truly the chicken and
egg problem.

These seven elements are intrinsically and inherently good. Even an earthquake is good.
It shows that in the short term it is very painful. But in the long term the Earth is
managing, maintaining, correcting and balancing itself. Everything that naturally exists
has its own natural balance and harmony; that is Deep Ecology.

Once we accept that Gaia is good, how do we interact with it? We human beings need
food; we have to cultivate land; and we have to fulfill our vital needs. We have to collect
some trees to build our house; we have to take water from the river; we have to make
clothes; we have to make fire to keep warm; we have to breathe air, and we have to use
animals. What is the guiding principle upon which our relationship with Gaia is
determined?
That principle is Permaculture — a culture of permanence, of sustainability.When we are
tilling the soil, or making a product, whether it is paper or shoes or clothes or furniture or
electricity or whatever we are producing, we need to do it in a sustainable way. Whether
we are in business or farming, in politics, or industry, Permaculture is applicable in every
field. The idea of permanence is very much an old idea. The American Indians believed
that whatever you do, remember how your action is going to affect the seventh
generation. Permaculture helps us to think of posterity, of our children and grandchildren
and great-great-great grandchildren, and how they are going to be affected by what we do
today. So we cultivate the land, we produce goods, we run our economy, we run our
business — we need to design all our activities in such a way that all designs for living
contain the idea of permanence. In the back of our minds we need to keep the question, is
it sustainable? Is it only for a short-term profit, or is it a long-term, continuous and
durable design? The economics of permanence is Permaculture.

Now, once we accept that our relationship with the Earth should be based on the principle
of permanence, we need to develop a sense of the place. The Earth is a large planet. Can
we depend on butter from New Zealand, coffee from Kenya and tea from India? The
Japanese cars are exported to Britain and the British cars are exported to Japan; is this
sustainable? Here we have the idea of Bioregions. Mahatma Gandhi called it swadesi.
Bioregionalism is a decentralized, locally-based economy.

Whatever things can be made locally and produced locally, we should use them first; and
things which cannot be produced in our immediate locality should be imported from the
nearer neighbourhoods and districts. If they are not available within that area and we still
need some, and if it is a vital need, maybe we should get them from a national area. If we
still need a few things — but only very, very few things — then we might get them from
a continental area. But free World Trade is neither ecological nor sustainable — the
amount of energy, the extent of bureaucracy, the amount of time, the degree of
administration spent on import and export of goods is wasteful. We need to understand
the carrying capacity of a local region, and maintain a stable population. We learn to
celebrate the genius of a place. There are so many things growing without even
cultivating, but we don’t know them — because we think that an exotic thing is exotic
only when we get it from Africa or China. But there are also exotic things under our
noses.

We are always chasing the foreign market. Governments always say that the only way to
develop and strengthen the economy is to find the export market — but what about the
home market? They forget it, and they are chasing a competitive market abroad. A
bioregional economy is a complementary to the concept of good and durable Gaia. Big
institutions cannot be sustained in an ecological world. Bioregional Politics is also an
important component. Present national boundaries are residues of past empires and
military conquests. Gaian boundaries will be based on biological realities such as rivers,
mountains, valleys, cultures and languages.
Gaia, Deep Ecology, Permaculture and Bioregions are practical ideas for an integrated
view of nature. But the world cannot be sustained with practical ideas alone. It also needs
the spirit. If we do not have a place for the spirit, we will lack meaning. Therefore
Creation Spirituality which helps to develop a sense of the sacred is an essential part of
an ecological world-view. What does Creation Spirituality mean? It is not a religion, it
does not mean that you have to go to church or you have to read the Bible. It means that
the human soul and the soil are imbued with the divine principle.

Creation Spirituality helps us to see nature and ourselves differently. The Earth is sacred,
trees are sacred, rivers and mountains are sacred. In India people say, "This is the holy
river of Ganges". The river of Ganges symbolizes all rivers of the world and they are all
sacred. In India there are lots of tree shrines. We don’t need to build temples, every tree is
a shrine. Creation Spirituality develops a sense of reverence for all life, not just for
human life but for all life. Most people accept that human life is sacred, but we cannot
choose human life. We value a human being for what he or she is. We believe in the
sanctity of human life; we have to extend it to all life. Within human relationships we
accept help and service from others. On such occasions we say, "Thank you", and we
express a sense of gratitude — that gratitude is Creation Spirituality.

In the same way, when we select a fruit from the tree, or a branch from the tree to make
fire, we should say, "Thank you, tree". Even if we don’t verbalize it, even if we don’t
articulate it, it doesn’t matter. But deep in our heart if we have that sense of gratitude,
then it is Creation Spirituality. If we have that sense because of our attitude of reverence,
then we will never be able to pollute or destroy or deface nature. The modern industrial
society doesn’t have that sense of reverence for nature, and it results in the pollution and
degradation of the Earth. The crisis of environment comes out of a utilitarian,
materialistic, non-sacred, non-spiritual world-view — "the Earth is there for us to use, for
our comfort, for our convenience." As a consequence we have taken from nature without
knowing its limits. When we have a sense of reverence, we shall take from nature only
what meets our vital needs. And when we take something, we thank, we show gratitude
— like we take milk from the mother’s breast; the mother is very happy to give her milk
in the same way as the Earth is happy to give its fruits as long as we take only what we
need. When the baby is full, he or she stops sucking and doesn’t go on sucking. Well,
unfortunately we humans go on sucking the Earth. Mahatma Gandhi said, "There is
enough for everybody’s need in this world, but not enough for anybody’s greed." So need
and greed have to be differentiated. How can you differentiate them? A government
cannot legislate for it. A dictator cannot force it. It has to emerge out of our own
individual heart, from a sense of beauty, a sense of the divine. When we have that, then
we take things from the Earth and always replenish her for what we have taken.

In India every citizen was required to plant five trees and see them to maturity; take care
of them, nurture them, look after them, and worship them. That was the pancavati of
India. Those five trees were seen as a contribution every citizen was making as an act of
replenishment, an act of yajna. They were for the children and grandchildren and great
grandchildren, and for posterity. The earth provides enough essence for the humans,
animals and birds to eat, but also enough to return to the earth; the peels, the straw, the
pips, the skin, the fruits and vegetables have plenty of good for us to eat and plenty to put
back into the compost which goes back into the earth. Thus the earth is replenished. A
tree stands out naked, there all winter without leaves; the tree is now replenishing the
earth with its leaves; all the leaves have gone back into the earth; they are rotting, making
the soil fertile, so that the roots are nourished which in turn gives life to the leaves and to
the fruits, a beautiful cycle of replenishment. Nature is our great teacher, and we can
learn to replenish and not waste. There is no greater teacher than nature. Even the Buddha
and the Christ learned wisdom from nature.

Creation Spirituality is not dependent on any organized religion. It is a sense in your heart
that there is much more to life than meets the eye; there is a greater mystery than we can
know or measure; and there is greater meaning behind the world of appearance. The light
is burning inside us. We need to close our eyes and look within, not in a temple, or in a
mosque, or in a synagogue, or somewhere else. The light is not outside. The spiritual
light is inside our soul.

The world cannot be saved just by the technocrats, or by the shallow ecologists. They
say, "We can manage the environment, we are clever people". But everyone knows that
environment cannot be managed. We can only revere environment; we can only respect
environment; and we can only see environment as part of us and us part of environment.
This total unity can come only when you have a spiritual base and not just a utilitarian
base.

Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth

Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth are existential risks that could threaten
humankind as a whole, have adverse consequences for the course of human civilization,
or even cause the end of planet Earth. The concept is expressed in various phrases such as
"End of the World", "Doomsday", "and Armageddon", and others.
Types of risks

Various risks exist for humanity, but not all are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized
into six types based on the scope (personal, regional, global) and the intensity (endurable
or terminal). The following chart provides some examples:

Typology of risk

Endurable Terminal

Global Plate tectonics Nearby Gamma ray burst

Regional Flash flooding Permanent submersion

Personal Assault Death

The risks discussed in this article are at least Global and Terminal in intensity. These
types of risks are ones where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life,
or permanently and drastically reduce its potential. Jamais Cascio made an alternative
classification system.

Future scenarios

Many scenarios have been suggested. Some that will almost certainly end humanity are
certain to occur, but on a very long timescale. Others are likely to happen on a shorter
timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely
unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, Nick Bostrom writes:

Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been
excluded from the list on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal
disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray
bursts, galactic center outbursts, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility,
and various religious doomsday scenarios.
Cosmology and space

On a very long time and distance scale, the ultimate fate of the universe is generally felt
by scientists to be one that precludes the indefinite continuation of life. There are abroad
spectrums of these predictive theories that fall in the realm of cosmology, but a long-
established and widely-accepted notion is the Heat death of the universe. Most notions
involve time periods much greater than the generally accepted age of the universe of
around 13 billion years.

At the latest, in about 5 billion years, stellar evolution predicts our sun will exhaust its
core hydrogen and become a red giant. In so doing, it will become thousands of times
more luminous. As a red giant, the Sun will lose roughly 30% of its mass, so, without
tidal effects, the Earth will be in an orbit 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km) from the Sun when
the star reaches it maximum radius. Therefore, the planet is thought to escape
envelopment by the expanded Sun's sparse outer atmosphere, though most (if not all)
existing life would have been destroyed by the Sun's proximity to Earth. However, a
more recent simulation indicates that Earth's orbit will decay due to tidal effects and drag,
causing it to enter the red giant Sun's atmosphere and be destroyed. The Earth will likely
be dragged into the Sun when it becomes an enlarged red giant by no later than about 7.6
billion years; before actual collision with the sun, the oceans would evaporate, and Earth
could be destroyed by tidal forces. Alternatively, if the Sun shrinks to a white dwarf
before consuming Earth, the Earth would be too frigid to sustain life.

Meteorite impact

In the timeframe of the geologically recent history of the Earth, say, 100 million years,
several large meteorites have hit Earth. The Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid, for example, is
theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If such an object struck Earth it
could have a serious impact on civilization. It is even possible that humanity would be
completely destroyed; for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in
diameter, but probably between 3–10 km (2–6 miles). Asteroids with a 1 km diameter
impact the Earth every 500,000 years on average. Larger asteroids are less common. The
last large (>10 km) impact happened 65 million years ago. So-called Near-Earth asteroids
are regularly being observed.

A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called
Gliese 710. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the Solar System and
will likely be at a distance 1.1 light years from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models
predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the ort cloud to the Earth. Other
models, such as the one by Garcia Sanchez, predict an increase of only 5%.
Less likely cosmic threats

A number of other scenarios have been suggested. Massive objects, e.g., a star, large
planet or black hole, could be catastrophic if a close encounter occurred in the solar
system. (Gravity from the wandering objects might disrupt orbits and/or fling bodies into
other objects, thus resulting in meteorite impacts or climate change. Also, heat from the
wandering objects might cause extinctions; tidal forces could cause erosion along our
coastlines.) Another threat might come from gamma ray bursts. Both are very unlikely.

Still others see extraterrestrial life as a possible threat to mankind; although alien life has
never been found, scientists such as Carl Sagan have postulated that the existence of
extraterrestrial life is very likely. In 1969, the "Extra-Terrestrial Exposure Law" was
added to the Code of Federal Regulations (Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the
possibility of biological contamination resulting from the US Apollo Space Program. It
was removed in 1991. Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but
unlikely.

In April 2008, it was announced that two simulations of long-term planetary movement,
one at Paris Observatory and the other at University of California, Santa Cruz indicate a
1% chance that Mercury's orbit could be made unstable by Jupiter's gravitational pull
sometime during the lifespan of the sun. Were this to happen, the simulations suggest a
collision with Earth could be one of four possible outcomes (the others being colliding
with the Sun, colliding with Venus, or being ejected from the solar system altogether). If
this were to happen, all life on Earth will be obliterated and the impact may displace
enough matter into orbit to form another moon. Note that an asteroid just 15 km wide is
said to have destroyed the dinosaurs; Mercury is some 5,000 km in diameter.

Earth

Global pandemic

A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. For example, if HIV were to mutate and
become as transmissible as the common cold, the consequences would be disastrous.[17]
This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to
become less fatal over time as a function of natural selection. A pathogen that quickly
kills its hosts will not likely have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills
its hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection,
and thus likely outcompete a more lethal species or strain. A real-life example of this
process can be found in the historical evolution of syphilis towards a less virulent form.
Also, as a virus mutates and becomes easily transmittable it often gives up much of its
virulence in the process. This is not to say that a highly destructive and highly
transmissible disease is not possible. Ebola, for example, is highly contagious and 90%
fatal; the only reason it has not caused a worldwide crisis is because outbreaks usually
occur in rural Africa. Of course, a pandemic resulting in human extinction need not arise
naturally; the possibility of one caused by a deliberately-engineered pathogen cannot be
ruled out.
Megatsunami

Another possibility is a megatsunami. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the

entire east coast of the United States of America. The coastal areas of the entire world
could also be flooded in case of the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.[18] While
none of these scenarios are likely to destroy humanity completely, they could regionally
threaten civilization. There has been one recent high-fatality tsunami, although it was not
big enough to be a megatsunami.

Pole shift theory

An abrupt reorientation of Earth's axis of rotation could cause a new extinction event.[19]

Climate Change & Global Warming

Climate change is any long-term significant change in the expected patterns of average
weather of a specific region (or, more relevantly to contemporary socio-political
concerns, of the Earth as a whole) over an appropriately significant period of time.
Climate change reflects abnormal variations to the expected climate within the Earth's
atmosphere and subsequent effects on other parts of the Earth, such as in the ice caps
over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. Directly linked to observe
increases in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, global warming and climate
change are now considered key drivers behind rising global humanitarian and emergency
relief needs. According to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
(OCHA), climate disasters are on the rise. Around 70 percent of disasters are now climate
related – up from around 50 percent from two decades ago. These disasters take a heavier
human toll and come with a higher price tag. In the last decade, 2.4 billion people were
affected by climate related disasters, compared to 1.7 billion in the previous decade and
the cost of responding to disasters has risen tenfold between 1992 and 2008. Destructive
sudden heavy rains, intense tropical storms, repeated flooding and droughts are likely to
increase, as will the vulnerability of local communities in the absence of strong concerted
action.

Ice age

In the history of the Earth, many ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will almost
certainly come at an interval of 40,000–100,000 years. This would have a serious impact
on civilization, because vast areas of land (mainly in North America, Europe, and Asia)
could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but
with possible loss of humidity/water. Currently, the world is existing in an interglacial
period within a much older glacial event. The last glacial expansion ended about 10,000
years ago, and all civilizations, save a few hunter-gatherer populations, have come into
existence during that time.
Ecological disaster

An ecological disaster, such as world crop failure and collapse of ecosystem services,
could be induced by the present trends of overpopulation, economic development, and
non-sustainable agriculture. Most of these scenarios involve one or more of the
following: Holocene extinction event, scarcity of water that could lead to approximately
one half of the Earth's population being without safe drinking water, pollinator decline,
over fishing, massive deforestation, desertification, climate change, or massive water
pollution episodes. A very recent threat in this direction is colony collapse disorder, a
phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction of the Western honeybee.
As the bee plays a vital role in pollination, its extinction would severely disrupt the food
chain.

World population and agricultural crisis

The 20th century saw a rapid increase in human population due to medical advances and
massive increase in agricultural productivity made by the Green Revolution. Between
1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world
grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food
production to keep pace with worldwide population growth or actually enabled
population growth. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in
the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.
David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario
Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition
(INRAN), place in their study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy the
maximum U.S. population for a sustainable economy at 200 million. To achieve a
sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at
least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the
study.

The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to
impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. Geologist Dale Allen
Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and
massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.

Supervolcano

When the supervolcano at Yellowstone last erupted 640,000 years ago, the magma and
ash ejected from the caldera covered most of the United States west of the Mississippi
river and part of northeastern Mexico. Another such eruption could threaten civilization.
Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of
the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic
debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the
sun and cause a volcanic winter, as happened in 1816, the Year Without a Summer. Such
an eruption may cause the immediate deaths of millions of people several hundred miles
from the eruption, and perhaps billions of deaths worldwide due to the failure of the
monsoon as well as destruction of the "American breadbasket", causing starvation on a
massive scale.

Humanity

Some threats for humanity come from humanity itself. The scenario that has been
explored most is a nuclear war or another weapon with similar possibilities. It is difficult
to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter
civilization, in particular if there was a nuclear winter.

Another category of disasters are unforeseen consequences of technology.

It has been suggested that learning computers that rapidly become super intelligent may
take unforeseen actions or that robots would out-compete humanity. Because of its
exceptional scheduling and organizational capability and the range of novel technologies
it could develop, it is possible that the first Earth super intelligence to emerge could
rapidly become very, very powerful. Quite possibly, it would be matchless and
unrivalled: conceivably it would be able to bring about almost any possible outcome, and
be able to foil virtually any attempt that threatened to prevent it achieving its desires. It
could eliminate, wiping out if it chose, any other challenging rival intellects, alternatively
it might manipulate or persuade them to change their behaviors towards its own interests,
or it may merely obstruct their attempts at interference.

Biotechnology could lead to the creation of a pandemic, Nanotechnology could lead to

grey goof in which out-of-control self-replicating robots consume all living matter on
Earth while building more of themselves - in both cases, either deliberately or by
accident. It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a
device that could destroy the earth and the solar system. Another kind of accident is the
Ice-9 Type Transition, in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange
matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.

It has been suggested that runaway global warming might cause the climate on Earth to
become like Venus, which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it
could cause the end of civilization. According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan
glaciers that are the sources of Asia's biggest rivers - Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra,
Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise.
Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers.
India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods
followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for
drinking and farming for more than 500 million people. The west coast of North
America, which gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the
Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada, also would be affected. According to the California
Department of Water Resources, if more water supplies are not found by 2020, California
residents will face a water shortfall nearly as great as the amount consumed today.
Directly linked to observe increases in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters,
global warming and climate change are now considered key drivers behind rising global
humanitarian and emergency relief needs. According to the UN’s Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), climate disasters are on the rise. Around
70 percent of disasters are now climate related – up from around 50 percent from two
decades ago. These disasters take a heavier human toll and come with a higher price tag.
In the last decade, 2.4 billion people were affected by climate related disasters, compared
to 1.7 billion in the previous decade and the cost of responding to disasters has risen
tenfold between 1992 and 2008. Destructive sudden heavy rains, intense tropical storms,
repeated flooding and droughts are likely to increase, as will the vulnerability of local
communities in the absence of strong concerted action.

Approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded. In Africa, if

current trends of soil degradation continue the continent might be able to feed just 25% of
its population by 2025, according to UNU's Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources
in Africa.

James Lovelock, creator of the Gaia hypothesis, in his book The Revenge of Gaia (2006),
has suggested that the elimination of rain forests, and the falling planetary biodiversity is
removing the homeostatic negative feedback mechanisms that maintain climate stability
by reducing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide). With
the heating of the oceans, the extension of the thermo cline layer into Arctic and
Antarctic waters is preventing the overturning and nutrient enrichment necessary for algal
blooms of phytoplankton on which the ecosystems of these areas depend. With the loss of
phytoplankton and tropical rain forests, two of the main carbon dioxide sinks for reducing
global warming, he suggests a runaway positive feedback effect could cause tropical
deserts to cover most of the world's tropical regions, and the disappearance of polar ice
caps, posing a serious challenge to global civilization.

Using scenario analysis, the Global scenario group (GSG), a coalition of international
scientists convened by Paul Raskin, developed a series of possible futures for the world
as it enters a Planetary Phase of Civilization. One scenario involves the complete
breakdown of civilization as the effects of climate change become more pronounced,
competition for scarce resources increases, and the rift between the poor and the wealthy
widens. The GSG’s other scenarios, such as Policy Reform, Eco-Communalism, and
Great Transition avoid this societal collapse and eventually result in environmental and
social sustainability. They claim the outcome is dependent on human choice and the
possible formation of a global citizen’s movement which could influence the trajectory of
global development.
Other scenarios

Peak oil

Fossil Fuels attain a level of scarcity before an economically viable replacement is

devised, leading firstly to economic strain, followed by the collapse of modern
agriculture, then to mass-starvation.

Antibiotic resistance

Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics,
devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.

Gulf Stream shutdown

There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or

slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North
Atlantic and lead to cooling in that region. This would affect in particular areas
like Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Britain that are warmed by the North
Atlantic drift.

Mutual assured destruction

A full scale nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting nuclear winter would
effectively crush any form of civilization.

Overpopulation

Some scenarios of simultaneous ecological (food & water production) and

economical (see f.e. below) collapses with overpopulation are presumed to lead to
a global civil war, where the remaining habitable areas are destroyed by
competing humans (so called 'Mad Max'-scenario).

Famine

As of late 2007, increased farming for use in biofuels, along with world oil prices
at over $140 a barrel, has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and
dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up
32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year. Food riots have recently taken place in
many countries across the world. An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by
race Ug99 is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major
concern. Scientists say millions of people face starvation.
Experimental accident

Investigations in nuclear and high energy physics, such as the Trinity test and
more recently with the Large Hadron Collider, theoretical chain-reaction global
disasters triggered by these unusual conditions were worried about by some but
have not yet occurred.

Historical futurist scenarios

Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in
addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the
world would happen no earlier than 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date
on it.

Many believe that the Maya civilization's Long Count calendar ends abruptly on
December 21, 2012. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of using only five
places in Long Count Calendar inscriptions. On some monuments the Maya calculated
dates far into the past and future but there is no end of the world date. There will be a
Piktun ending (a cycle of 13 144,000 day Bak'tuns) on December 21, 2012. A Piktun
marks the end of a 1,872,000 day or approximately 5125 year period and is a significant
event in the Maya calendar. However, there is no historical or scientific evidence that the
Mayas believed it would be a doomsday.

There are six types of ecology. They are organismal, population, community, ecosystem,
landscape, and global.

Impact of Ecological environment on Agricultural

industries of Bangladesh:
What is Renewable resources?

A natural resource qualifies as a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural

processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans. Solar
radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are in no danger
of long-term availability. Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as
wood, paper, and leather, if harvesting is performed in a sustainable manner.

Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal power, fresh water, timber, and
biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the world’s capacity to replenish
them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic means of evaluating renew ability.

The term has a connotation of sustainability of the natural environment. Gasoline, coal,
natural gas, diesel, and other commodities derived from fossil fuels are non-renewable.
Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield.
Renewable Energy

Fig: A wind farm.

Fig: Total solar (left), wind, hydropower and geothermal energy resources compared to
global energy consumption (lower right).

How impact on agricultural industry:

Solar energy is the energy derived directly from the Sun. Along with nuclear energy, it is
the most abundant source of energy on Earth. The fastest growing type of alternative
energy, increasing at 50 percent a year, is the photovoltaic cell, which converts sunlight
directly into electricity. The Sun yearly delivers more than 10,000 times the energy that
humans currently use. The electricity that is produce by sun light is used in different
agricultural field and industries.

Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the
warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting
the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In
windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery
to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water for agricultural field and it also
used in different agricultural industries.

Hydropower is energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other
energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be
used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource. By this electricity we
can produce more agricultural products and this energy can be use in processing of
different agricultural products.

Geothermal power directly harnesses the natural flow of heat from the ground. The
available energy from natural decay of radioactive elements in the earths, crust, and
mantle is approximately equal to that of incoming solar energy, especially during the day.

Alcohol derived from corn, sugar cane, switch grass, etc. is also a renewable source of
energy. Similarly, oils from plants and seeds can be used as a substitute for non-
renewable diesel. Methane is also considered as a renewable source of energy.

Nuclear power, particularly a breeder reactor, is often considered renewable.

Renewable materials

Agricultural products

Techniques in agriculture which allow for minimal or controlled environmental damage

qualify as sustainable agriculture. Products (foods, chemicals, biofuels, etc) from this
type of agriculture may be considered "sustainable" when processing, logistics, etc. also
have sustainable characteristics.

Similarly, forest products such as lumber, plywood, paper and chemicals, can be
renewable resources when produced by sustainable forestry techniques.

Water
Water can qualify as a renewable material (also non-renewable) when carefully
controlled usage, treatment, and release is followed. If not, it would become a non-
renewable resource at that location. For example, groundwater could be removed from an
aquifer at a rate greater than the sustainable recharge. Removal of water from the pore
spaces may cause permanent compaction (subsidence) that cannot be renewed. Water is a
very essential element in agriculture. Without water no crop can grow. Water keeps a
vital role in agricultural sector. The water is used in agriculture field and used to process
the agricultural product.

Metal

Scrap metal dealers transfer scrap metal to companies so people can get money for their
unwanted metal as well as keep its value down. The scrap metal is used in making
different agricultural equipment that is helpful for agriculture.

What is Non renewable resource?

A non-renewable resource is a natural resource that cannot be produced, re-grown,

regenerated, or reused on a scale which can sustain its consumption rate. These resources
often exist in a fixed amount, or are consumed much faster than nature can recreate them.
Fossil fuel (such as coal, petroleum and natural gas) is an example. In contrast, resources
such as timber (when harvested sustain ably) or metals (which can be recycled) are
considered resources. A non-renewable resource is always drawn down with anabolic
processes that use up energy.

Fossil fuels

Fig: A temporary oil drilling rig.

How impact on Agricultural sector:

Natural resources such as coal, petroleum, oil and natural gas take millions of years to
form naturally and cannot be replaced as fast as they are being consumed. Eventually
natural resources will become too costly to harvest and humanity will need to find other
sources of energy. At present, the main energy sources used by humans are non-
renewable.

Some natural resources, called renewable resources, are replaced by natural processes
given a reasonable amount of time. Soil, water, forests, plants, and animals are all
renewable resources as long as they are properly conserved. Solar, wind, wave, and
geothermal energies are based on renewable resources. Renewable resources such as the
movement of water (hydropower, including tidal power; ocean surface waves used for
wave power), wind (used for wind power), geothermal heat (used for geothermal power);
and radiant energy (used for solar power) are practically infinite and cannot be depleted,
unlike their non-renewable counterparts, which are likely to run out if not used wisely.
Still, these technologies are not fully utilized. All the natural resources are used in
agricultural sector. Coal, oil and natural gas are used in producing energy that is used in
agricultural industry for watering in the field and the energy is used in running various
agricultural equipments and processing the agricultural products. Animals and insects are
helpful to keep the balance of soil. Soil is needed for producing agricultural products.

Acid rain
"Acid rain" is a popular term referring to the deposition of wet (rain, snow, sleet, fog and
cloud water, dew) and dry (acidifying particles and gases) acidic components. A more
accurate term is “acid deposition”. Distilled water, which contains no carbon dioxide, has
a neutral pH of 7. Liquids with a pH less than 7 are acidic, and those with a pH greater
than 7 are bases. “Clean” or unpolluted rain has a slightly acidic pH of about 5.2, because
carbon dioxide and water in the air react together to form carbonic acid, a weak acid (pH
5.6 in distilled water), but unpolluted rain also contains other chemicals.

H2O (l) + CO2 (g) → H2CO3 (aq)

Carbonic acid then can ionize in water forming low concentrations of hydronium ions:

2H2O (l) + H2CO3 (aq) CO32- (aq) + 2H3O+(aq)

History
Since the Industrial Revolution, emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides to the
atmosphere have increased. In 1852, Robert Angus Smith was the first to show the
relationship between acid rain and atmospheric pollution in Manchester, England.
Though acidic rain was discovered in 1852, it was not until the late 1960s that scientists
began widely observing and studying the phenomenon. The term "acid rain" was
generated in 1972. Canadian Harold Harvey was among the first to research a "dead"
lake. Public awareness of acid rain in the U.S increased in the 1970s after the New York
Times promulgated reports from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New
Hampshire of the myriad deleterious environmental effects demonstrated to result from it.

Occasional pH readings in rain and fog water of well below 2.4 (the acidity of vinegar)
have been reported in industrialized areas. Industrial acid rain is a substantial problem in
Europe, China, Russia and areas down-wind from them. These areas all burn sulfur
containing coal to generate heat and electricity. The problem of acid rain not only has
increased with population and industrial growth, but has become more widespread. The
use of tall smokestacks to reduce local pollution has contributed to the spread of acid rain
by releasing gases into regional atmospheric circulation. Often deposition occurs a
considerable distance downwind of the emissions, with mountainous regions tending to
receive the greatest deposition (simply because of their higher rainfall). An example of
this effect is the low pH of rain (compared to the local emissions) which falls in
Scandinavia.

Emissions of chemicals leading to acidification

The most important gas which leads to acidification is sulfur dioxide. Emissions of
nitrogen oxides which are oxidized to form nitric acid are of increasing importance due to
stricter controls on emissions of sulfur containing compounds. 70 Tg(S) per year in the
form of SO2 comes from fossil fuel combustion and industry, 2.8 Tg(S) from wildfires
and 7-8 Tg(S) per year from volcanoes.

Natural phenomena

The principal natural phenomena that contribute acid-producing gases to the atmosphere
are emissions from volcanoes and those from biological processes that occur on the land,
in wetlands, and in the oceans. The major biological source of sulfur containing
compounds is diethyl sulfide.

Acidic deposits have been detected in glacial ice thousands of years old in remote parts of
the globe.

Human activity
 Fig: The coal-fired Gavin Power Plant.

The principal cause of acid rain is sulfur and nitrogen compounds from human sources,
such as electricity generation, factories, and motor vehicles. Coal power plants are one of
the most polluting. The gases can be carried hundreds of kilometers in the atmosphere
before they are converted to acids and deposited. In the past, factories had short funnels
to let out smoke, but this caused many problems locally; thus, factories now have taller
smoke funnels. However, dispersal from these taller stacks causes pollutants to be carried
farther, causing widespread ecological damage.

Chemical processes

Gas phase chemistry

In the gas phase sulfur dioxide is oxidized by reaction with the hydroxyl radical via an
intermolecular reaction:

SO2 + OH· → HOSO2·

This is followed by:

HOSO2· + O2 → HO2· + SO3

In the presence of water, sulfur trioxide (SO3) is converted rapidly to sulfuric acid:

SO3(g) + H2O(l) → H2SO4(l)

Nitric acid is formed by the reaction of OH with nitrogen dioxide:

NO2 + OH· → HNO3

Chemistry in cloud droplets

When clouds are present, the loss rate of SO2 is faster than can be explained by gas phase
chemistry alone. This is due to reactions in the liquid water droplets

Hydrolysis

Sulfur dioxide dissolves in water and then, like carbon dioxide, hydrolyses in a series of
equilibrium reactions:

SO2 (g)+ H2O SO2·H2O

SO2·H2O H++HSO3-
HSO3- H++SO32-
Oxidation

There are a large number of aqueous reactions that oxidize sulfur from S(IV) to S(VI),
leading to the formation of sulfuric acid. The most important oxidation reactions are with
ozone, hydrogen peroxide and oxygen (reactions with oxygen are catalyzed by iron and
manganese in the cloud droplets).

Acid deposition

Fig: Processes involved in acid deposition (note that only SO2 and NOx play a significant
role in acid rain).

How impact on agricultural industry:

Wet deposition

Wet deposition of acids occurs when any form of precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) removes
acids from the atmosphere and delivers it to the Earth's surface. This can result from the
deposition of acids produced in the raindrops (see aqueous phase chemistry above) or by
the precipitation removing the acids either in clouds or below clouds. Wet removal of
both gases and aerosols are both of importance for wet deposition. Wet deposition is
harmful for agricultural sector because the green fields become destroy by it. As a result
food crisis are seen in the world.

Dry deposition

Acid deposition also occurs via dry deposition in the absence of precipitation. This can be
responsible for as much as 20 to 60% of total acid deposition. This occurs when particles
and gases stick to the ground, plants or other surfaces. Acid deposition has also negative
effect on agricultural sector. It causes the destroy of agricultural sector.

Adverse effects
This chart shows that not all fish, shellfish, or the insects that they eat can tolerate the
same amount of acid; for example, frogs can tolerate water that is more acidic (i.e., has a
lower pH) than trout.

Acid rain has been shown to have adverse impacts on agriculture, forests, freshwaters and
soils, killing insect and aquatic life-forms as well as causing damage to buildings and
having impacts on human health.

Surface waters and aquatic animals

Both the lower pH and higher aluminum concentrations in surface water that occur as a
result of acid rain can cause damage to fish and other aquatic animals. At pHs lower than
5 most fish eggs will not hatch and lower pHs can kill adult fish. As lakes and rivers
become more acidic biodiversity is reduced. Acid rain has eliminated insect life that is
helpful for increasing the soil health and some fish species, including the brook trout in
some lakes, streams, and creeks in geographically sensitive areas, such as the Adirondack
Mountains of the United States. However, the extent to which acid rain contributes
directly or indirectly via runoff from the catchments to lake and river acidity (i.e.,
depending on characteristics of the surrounding watershed) is variable. The United States
Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) website states: "Of the lakes and streams
surveyed, acid rain caused acidity in 75 percent of the acidic lakes and about 50 percent
of the acidic streams".

Soils

Soil biology and chemistry can be seriously damaged by acid rain. Some microbes are
unable to tolerate changes to low pHs and are killed. The enzymes of these microbes are
denatured by the acid. The hydronium ions of acid rain also mobilize toxins, e.g.
aluminum, and leach away essential nutrients and minerals.

2H+ (aq)+ Mg2+ (clay) 2H+ (clay)+ Mg2+(aq)

Soil chemistry can be dramatically changed when base cations, such as calcium and
magnesium, are leached by acid rain thereby affecting sensitive species, such as sugar
maple (Acer saccharum). The agricultural product is hampered for defect of soil.

Forests and other vegetation

Fig: Effect of acid rain on a forest.

Adverse effects may be indirectly related to acid rain, like the acid's effects on soil (see
above) or high concentration of gaseous precursors to acid rain. High altitude forests are
especially vulnerable as they are often surrounded by clouds and fog which are more
acidic than rain.
Other plants can also be damaged by acid rain but the effect on food crops is minimized
by the application of lime and fertilizers to replace lost nutrients. In cultivated areas,
limestone may also be added to increase the ability of the soil to keep the pH stable, but
this tactic is largely unusable in the case of wilderness lands. When calcium is leached
from the needles of red spruce, these trees become less cold tolerant and exhibit winter
injury and even death.

Human health

Scientists have suggested direct links to human health. Fine particles, a large fraction of
which are formed from the same gases as acid rain (sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide),
have been shown to cause illness and premature deaths such as cancer and other diseases.
As the human health becomes damaged they can’t more productive. When human health
becomes damaged then human beings are less interested to produce anything and their
productivity become decreases. Their consumption also becomes decreases so balance of
supply and demand also hampered.

Other adverse effects

Fig: Effect of acid rain on statues

Acid rain can also cause damage to certain building materials and historical monuments.
This results when the sulfuric acid in the rain chemically reacts with the calcium
compounds in the stones (limestone, sandstone, marble and granite) to create gypsum,
which then flakes off. It also damages the industry building that is used for agriculture.

CaCO3 (s) + H2SO4 (aq) CaSO4 (aq) + CO2 (g) + H2O (l)

This result is also commonly seen on old gravestones where the acid rain can cause the
inscription to become completely illegible. Acid rain also causes an increased rate of
oxidation for iron. Visibility is also reduced by sulfate and nitrate aerosols and particles
in the atmosphere.
What is Greenhouse effect?
The greenhouse effect refers to the change in the steady state temperature of a planet or
moon by the presence of an atmosphere containing gas that absorbs and emits infrared
radiation. Greenhouse gases, which include water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane,
warm the atmosphere by efficiently absorbing thermal infrared radiation emitted by the
Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. As a result of its warmth, the
atmosphere also radiates thermal infrared in all directions, including downward to the
Earth’s surface. Thus, greenhouse gases trap heat within the surface-troposphere system.
This mechanism is fundamentally different from the mechanism of an actual greenhouse,
which instead isolates air inside the structure so that the heat is not lost by convection and
conduction, as discussed below. The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier
in 1824, first reliably experimented on by John Tyndall in the year 1858 and first reported
quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in his 1896 paper.

Fig: A schematic representation of the exchanges of energy between outer space, the
Earth's atmosphere, and the Earth's surface. The ability of the atmosphere to capture and
recycle energy emitted by the Earth surface is the defining characteristic of the
greenhouse effect.
In the absence of the greenhouse effect and an atmosphere, the Earth's average surface
temperature of 14 °C (57 °F) could be as low as −18 °C (−0.4 °F), the black body
temperature of the Earth.

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW), a recent warming of the Earth's lower

atmosphere as evidenced by the global mean temperature anomaly trend, is believed to be
the result of an "enhanced greenhouse effect" mainly due to human-produced increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and changes in the use of land. The
greenhouse effect is one of several factors that affect the temperature of the Earth. Other
positive and negative feedbacks dampen or amplify the greenhouse effect.

In our solar system, Mars, Venus, and the moon Titan also exhibit greenhouse effects
according to their respective environments. In addition, Titan has an anti-greenhouse
effect and Pluto exhibits behavior similar to the anti-greenhouse effect.

Basic mechanism
The Earth receives energy from the Sun mostly in the form of visible light. The bulk of
this energy is not absorbed by the atmosphere since the atmosphere is transparent to
visible light. 50% of the sun's energy reaches the Earth and is absorbed by the surface as
heat. Because of its temperature, the Earth's surface radiates energy in infrared range. The
Greenhouse gases are not transparent to infrared radiation so they absorb infrared
radiation. Infrared radiation is absorbed from all directions and is passed as heat to all
gases in the atmosphere. The atmosphere also radiates in the infrared range (because of
its temperature, in the same way the Earth's surface does) and does so in all directions.
The surface and lower atmosphere are warmed because of the greenhouse gases and
makes our life on earth possible.

Detailed explanation

The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form of radiation. Most of the energy is in
visible wavelengths and in infrared wavelengths that are near the visible range (often
called "near infrared"). The Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming solar radiation. The
remaining 70% is absorbed, warming the land, atmosphere and ocean.

For the Earth's temperature to be in steady state so that the Earth does not rapidly heat or
cool, this absorbed solar radiation must be very closely balanced by energy radiated back
to space in the infrared wavelengths. Since the intensity of infrared radiation increases
with increasing temperature, one can think of the Earth's temperature as being determined
by the infrared flux needed to balance the absorbed solar flux.
Fig: Pattern of absorption bands generated by various greenhouse gases and their impact
on both solar radiation and up going thermal radiation from the Earth's surface. A greater
quantity of up going radiation is absorbed, which contributes to the greenhouse effect.

The visible solar radiation mostly heats the surface, not the atmosphere, whereas most of
the infrared radiation escaping to space is emitted from the upper atmosphere, not the
surface. The infrared photons emitted by the surface are mostly absorbed in the
atmosphere by greenhouse gases and clouds and do not escape directly to space.

The reason this warms the surface is most easily understood by starting with a simplified
model of a purely radiative greenhouse effect that ignores energy transfer in the
atmosphere by convection (sensible heat transport, Sensible heat flux) and by the
evaporation and condensation of water vapor (latent heat transport, Latent heat flux). In
this purely radiative case, one can think of the atmosphere as emitting infrared radiation
both upwards and downwards. The upward infrared flux emitted by the surface must
balance not only the absorbed solar flux but also this downward infrared flux emitted by
the atmosphere. The surface temperature will rise until it generates thermal radiation
equivalent to the sum of the incoming solar and infrared radiation.

A more realistic picture taking into account the convective and latent heat fluxes is
somewhat more complex. But the following simple model captures the essence. The
starting point is to note that the opacity of the atmosphere to infrared radiation determines
the height in the atmosphere from which most of the photons are emitted into space. If
the atmosphere is more opaque, the typical photon escaping to space will be emitted from
higher in the atmosphere, because one then has to go to higher altitudes to see out to
space in the infrared. Since the emission of infrared radiation is a function of temperature,
it is the temperature of the atmosphere at this emission level that is effectively determined
by the requirement that the emitted flux balance the absorbed solar flux.
But the temperature of the atmosphere generally decreases with height above the surface,
at a rate of roughly 6.5 °C per kilometer on average, until one reaches the stratosphere
10–15 km above the surface. (Most infrared photons escaping to space are emitted by the
troposphere, the region bounded by the surface and the stratosphere, so we can ignore the
stratosphere in this simple picture.) A very simple model, but one that proves to be
remarkably useful, involves the assumption that this temperature profile is simply fixed,
by the non-radiative energy fluxes. Given the temperature at the emission level of the
infrared flux escaping to space, one then computes the surface temperature by increasing
temperature at the rate of 6.5 °C per kilometer, the environmental lapse rate, until one
reaches the surface. The more opaque the atmosphere, and the higher the emission level
of the escaping infrared radiation, the warmer the surface, since one then needs to follow
this lapse rate over a larger distance in the vertical. While less intuitive than the purely
radiative greenhouse effect, this less familiar radiative-convective picture is the starting
point for most discussions of the greenhouse effect in the climate modeling literature.

Greenhouse gases

In order, Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases are:

• water vapor
• carbon dioxide
• methane
• nitrous oxide
• ozone
• CFCs

When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most
important are:

• water vapor, which contributes 36–70%

• carbon dioxide, which contributes 9–26%
• methane, which contributes 4–9%
• ozone, which contributes 3–7%

The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorbs and
emits infrared radiation and thus has an effect on radiative properties of the greenhouse
gases.

Runaway greenhouse effect

A runaway greenhouse effect occurs if positive feedbacks lead to the evaporation of all
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A runaway greenhouse effect involving carbon
dioxide and water vapor may have occurred on Venus. It is not possible that such an
event will occur on Earth as a result of anthropogenic perturbations, but other potential
runaway climate change effects involving Arctic methane release from permafrost have
been identified. Clathrates have also been identified as a major potential methane source
capable of inducing a 'runaway' effect.

Anthropogenic greenhouse effect

Of the human-produced greenhouse gases, the one that contributes the bulk in terms of
radiative forcing is carbon dioxide. CO2 production from increased industrial activity
(fossil fuel burning) and other human activities such as cement production and tropical
deforestation has increased the concentrations in the atmosphere. Measurements of CO2
from the Mauna Loa observatory show that concentrations have increased from about 313
ppm (mole fraction in dry air) in 1960 to about 375 ppm in 2005. The current observed
amount of CO2 exceeds the geological record maxima (~300 ppm) from ice core data.

The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case
of the greenhouse effect first demonstrated in the 1930s, may be called the Callendar
effect.

Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO2 levels will contribute to additional

absorption and emission of thermal infrared in the atmosphere, which could contribute to
net warming. In fact, according to Assessment Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations".

Over the past 800,000 years, ice core data shows unambiguously that carbon dioxide has
varied from values as low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of
270ppm. Certain paleoclimatologists consider variations in carbon dioxide to be a
fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.

Responses to anthropogenic global warming fall into three categories:

• Adaptation - dealing with the effects of global warming, such as by building flood
defences
• Mitigation - reducing carbon emissions, such as by using renewable energy and
energy efficiency measures.
• Geoengineering - directly intervening in the climate using techniques such as
solar radiation management

Real greenhouses
A modern Greenhouse in RHS Wisley

The term "greenhouse effect" can be a source of confusion as actual greenhouses do not
function by the same mechanism the atmosphere does. Various materials at times imply
incorrectly that they do, or do not make the distinction between the processes of radiation
and convection

The term 'greenhouse effect' originally came from the greenhouses used for gardening,
but as mentioned the mechanism for greenhouses operates differently. Many sources
make the "heat trapping" analogy of how a greenhouse limits convection to how the
atmosphere performs a similar function through the different mechanism of infrared
absorbing gases.

A greenhouse is usually built of glass, plastic, or a plastic-type material. It heats up

mainly because the sun warms the ground inside it, which then warms the air in the
greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the greenhouse, unlike
the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes
with cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof
of a greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably. It has also been demonstrated
experimentally (Wood, 1909) that a "greenhouse" with a cover of rock salt heats up an
enclosure similarly to one with a glass cover. Greenhouses thus work primarily by
preventing convection; the atmospheric greenhouse effect however reduces radiation loss,
not convection.

Impact on agricultural sector:

Ozone is a layer that situated around the earth. This layer work as a protection layer of
the globe from various UV- rays those are harmful for human, animal and agriculture.
When CFC and CO2 gas increases on a vast amount in the Ozone layer, then the ozone
(O3) layer become destroy by chemical reaction with CFC. When the ozone layer become
destroys then the UV- ray easily can enter into the earth. As a result the agricultural field
become destroy, human, animals and other natural resources also become destroy

Declining amphibian populations:

Amphibians are particularly sensitive to changes in the environment. Amphibians have
been described as a marker species or the equivalent of “canaries of the coal mines”
meaning they provide an important signal to the health of biodiversity; when they are
stressed and struggling, biodiversity may be under pressure. When they are doing well,
biodiversity is probably healthy.

Unfortunately, as has been feared for many years now, amphibian species are declining at
an alarming rate.

Fig: The Golden Toad of Monteverde, Costa Rica was among the first casualties of
amphibian declines. Formerly abundant, it was last seen in 1989. (Source: Wikipedia)

Malcom MacCallum of the Biological Sciences Program, Texas A&M University

calculated that the current extinction rate of amphibians could be 211 times the
background amphibian extinction rate.

He added that “If current estimates of amphibian species in imminent danger of

extinction are included in these calculations, then the current amphibian extinction rate
may range from 25,039–45,474 times the background extinction rate for amphibians. It is
difficult to explain this unprecedented and accelerating rate of extinction as a
natural phenomenon.”

Impact on agriculture:

The amphibian populations eat various insects in agricultural field. They keep a vital role
to keep balance in the environment. If a small amphibian lost from our eco system, the
total eco system must be destroying. For example: Goat eats tree, people eats goat, when
people become die different virus, bacteria and insects live on taking different elements
from dead body and nitrogen separate from human body that is helpful for growing tree.
If any element lost from this eco system then the eco system become destroy.
Dwindling fish stocks

Mass extinctions of marine life due to industrialized fishing have been a concern for
many years. Yet, it rarely makes mainstream headlines. However, a report warning of
marine species loss becoming a threat to the entire global fishing industry did gain
media attention.

(Image source: Wikipedia)

A research article in the journal, Science, warned commercial fish and seafood species
may all crash by 2048.

At the current rate of loss, it is feared the oceans may never recover. Extensive coastal
pollution, climate change, over-fishing and the enormously wasteful practice of deep-sea
trawling are all contributing to the problem, as Inter Press Service (IPS) summarized.

As also explained on biodiversity importance section, ecosystems are incredibly

productive and efficient—when there is sufficient biodiversity. Each form of life works
together with the surrounding environment to help recycle waste, maintain the ecosystem,
and provide services that others—including humans—use and benefit from.

For example, as Steve Palumbi of Stamford University (and one of the authors of the
paper) noted, the ocean ecosystems can

• Take sewage and recycle it into nutrients;

• Scrub toxins out of the water;
 • Produce food for many species, including humans
• Turns carbon dioxide into food and oxygen

With massive species loss, the report warns, at current rates, in less than 50 years, the
ecosystems could reach the point of no return, where they would not be able to regenerate
themselves.

Dr. Boris Worm, one of the paper’s authors, and a world leader in ocean research,
commented that:

Whether we looked at tide pools or studies over the entire world’s ocean, we saw the
same picture emerging. In losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire
ecosystems. I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are—beyond
anything we suspected.

— Dr. Boris Worm, Losing species, Dalhousie University, November 3, 2006

“Current” is an important word, implying that while things look dire, there are solutions
and it is not too late yet. The above report and the IPS article noted that protected areas
show that biodiversity can be restored quickly. Unfortunately, “less than 1% of the global
ocean is effectively protected right now” and “where [recovery has been observed] we
see immediate economic benefits,” says Dr. Worm. Time is therefore of the essence.

An example of over fishing that has a ripple-effect on the whole fish-food chain is shark
hunting.

Fig: The Great White Shark is the largest predatory fish. (Source: Wikipedia)

Millions of sharks are killed each year from over fishing and trade. Many die accidentally
in fishing nets set for tuna and swordfish, while others are caught for their meat or just for
their fins.

A demand for shark-fin soup in places like China and Taiwan is decimating shark
populations. Shark fin soup is considered a delicacy (not even a necessity) and can be
extremely lucrative. So much money can be obtained just from the fin that fishermen
hunting sharks will simply catch sharks and cut off their fins while they are alive, tossing
the wriggling shark back into the ocean (to die, as it cannot swim without its fin). This
saves a lot of room on fishing boats. Some video footage shown on documentaries such
as National Geographic reveal how barbaric and wasteful this practice is.

Sharks in general are at the top of the food chain. Without sufficient shark numbers, the
balance they provide to the ecosystem is threatened, as nature evolved this balance of
many millennia.

As WWF, the global conservation organization notes, “Contrary to popular belief, shark
fins have little nutritional value and may even be harmful to your health over the long
term as fins have been found to contain high levels of mercury.”

Declining Ocean Biodiversity

It is not just fish in the oceans that may be struggling, but most biodiversity in the seas.
This includes mammals (e.g. whales, dolphins, polar bears), birds (e.g. penguins), and
other creatures (e.g. krill).

In the past century, commercial whaling has decimated numerous whale populations,
many of which have struggled to recover.

Fig: Whaling stations like this one in the Faroe Islands is also used to hold hunted
dolphins and other animals. (Image source: Wikipedia)

Commercial whaling in the past was for whale oil. With no reason to use whale oil today,
commercial whaling is mainly for food, while there is also some hunting for scientific
research purposes.

Large scale commercialized whaling was so destructive that in 1986 a moratorium on

whaling was set up by the International Whaling Commission (IWC).
As early as the mid-1930s, there were international attempts to recognize the impact of
whaling and try and make it more sustainable, resulting in the actual set up of the IWC in
1946. Many commercial whaling nations have been part of this moratorium but have
various objections and other pressures to try and resume whaling.

Fig: Japan often claims its whale-hunting is for scientific research; the general population
is often quite skeptical of such claims. (Image source: © Greenpeace)

Japan is the prime example of hunting whales for the stated aim of scientific research
while a lot of skepticism says it is for food. Greenpeace and other organizations often
release findings that argue Japan’s whaling to be excessive or primarily for food, and for
research as secondary.

General public negativity of commercial whaling has also led to a difference between
traditional whaling communities in the arctic region and conservationists. Traditional
indigenous communities have typically hunted whale in far smaller numbers
commercially, mostly for local food consumption, but the impacts of large-scale
commercial whaling has meant even their hunting is under pressure.

Some have argued for whale hunting as a way to sustain other marine populations.
National Geographic Wild aired a program called, A Life among Whales (broadcast June
14, 2008). It noted how a few decades ago, some fishermen campaigned for killing
whales because they were apparently threatening the fish supply. A chain of events
eventually came full circle and led to a loss of jobs:

• The massive reduction in the local whale population meant the killer whales in
that region (that usually preyed on the younger whales) moved to other animals
such as seals
• As seal numbers declined, the killer whales targeted otters
• As otter numbers were decimated, the urchins and other targets of otters
flourished
• These decimated the kelp forests where many fish larvae grew in relative
protection
• The exposed fish larvae were easy pickings for a variety of sea life
 • Fishermen’s livelihoods were destroyed.

This may be a vivid example of humans interfering and altering the balance of
ecosystems and misunderstanding the importance of biodiversity.

Dr. Sylvia Earle, described as a “Living Legend” by the US Library of Congress, is a

world-renowned oceanographer, explorer, author, and lecturer. In the early 1990s she was
the Chief Scientist of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration in the
US. In 2009 she won the prestigious TED prize. As part of the prize, she was able to
share a wish, which captured some major concerns about dwindling ocean biodiversity
and its importance to all life on earth:

Impact on agricultural field:

When fish destroy from the eco system then the population those live depends on fish
also destroy, like people. Then people also loss from the earth, when people loss then
agriculture industry also destroy.

Loss of forests equates to a loss of many species

© Centre for Science and Environment,

Campaign on Forests

A 20-year study has shown that deforestation and introduction of non-native species has
led to about 12.5% of the world’s plant species to become critically rare. (In fact, as an
example, a study suggests that the Amazon damage is worse than previously thought, due
to previously undetected types of selective logging and deforestation.)
A report from the World Commission on Forests and Sustainable Development suggests
that the forests of the world have been exploited to the point of crisis and that major
changes in global forest management strategies would be needed to avoid the devastation.

What also makes this a problem is that many of the endangered species are only found in
small areas of land, often within the borders of a single country.

New species of animals and plants are still being discovered. In Papua New Guinea, 44
new species of animals were discovered recently in the forests. Logging may affect these
animals’ habitats, though. The loss of rainforests around the world, where many species
of life are found will mean that potential knowledge, whether medicinal, sustenance
sources, or evolutionary and scientific information etc. could be lost.

Brazil, which is estimated to have around 55,000 species of flora, amounting to some
22% of the world’s total and India for example, which has about 46,000 and some 81,000
animal species (amounting to some 8% of the world’s biodiversity), are also under
various pressures, from corporate globalization, deforrestation, etc. So too are many other
biodiverse regions, such as Indonesia, parts of Africa, and other tropical regions.

Sustainable Forests or Sustainable Profits?

The overly corporate-led form of globalization that we see today also affects how natural
resources are used and what priorities they are used for.

It is true that cutting down forests or converting natural forests into monocultures of pine
and eucalyptus for industrial raw material generates revenues and growth. But this
growth is based on robbing the forest of its biodiversity and its capacity to conserve soil
and water. This growth is based on robbing forest communities of their sources of food,
fodder, fuel, fiber, medicine, and security from floods and drought.

(Image source: Wikipedia)

We hear more about sustainable forestry practices by the large logging multinationals.
However, what does that really mean? Who is it sustainable for? Society and the
environment, or for the logging companies? By replanting trees that will grow quickly
and allow them to be felled for “sustained” logging sounds like a good strategy.
However, the trees that are favored for this (eucalyptus) require a lot of water to grow so
quickly. Madeley continues by describing the impact that the use of chemicals to treat
wood pulp from the eucalyptus has on local fisheries and on food production. This has
had terrible effects on indigenous people within such regions.

Illegal Timber Trade on a Large Scale

Some government institutions even buy illegal timber from pristine forests. For example,
it is claimed that UK buys all of its Mahogany from pristine forests in Brazil where 80%
of all timber is traded illegally. Even though Brazil has now tried to introduce a
moratorium on Mahogany logging for two years, this has been slammed by some as too
little, too late.

Legal Timber Trade on a Large Scale

Under much secrecy, there is a push from USA and Asian economies to reduce tariffs for
wood and paper products. Also at the WTO Ministerial meeting in November 1999,
opening more markets for easier access was the agenda, which included forests.

People and Forests

Quite often we make blanket statements or generalized conclusions that people are the
cause of deforestation. While that is true, unfortunately all people around the world are
not equal, and it also follows that some are more responsible for deforestation than
others. Often, in forests of the Amazon, Africa, or Asia, forest protection schemes have
been promoted that go against indigenous peoples and cultures, rather than work with
them.

As Indian activist and scientist Vandana Shiva and others have shown in countless work,
indigenous people often have their cultures and lifestyle structured in a way that works
with nature and would not undermine their own resource base. For example, in her book
Stolen Harvests she describes how their traditional knowledge has been beneficial to the
environment and has been developed and geared towards this understanding and respect
of the ecosystems around them.

Yet because of blanket conclusions that humankind is responsible for deforestation, we

risk assuming all types of societies are equally responsible for deforestation that is
damaging to the environment. (This hints then, that for sustainable development projects,
a more participatory approach can be accepted by local people, reducing the chance for
conflict and distrust and therefore be more likely to succeed as well.)
Fig: Water falls, an example of trying to preserve nature while allowing tourism.

As the cartoon, further above, from the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment
notes, logging companies and others can often have a larger impact on deforestation.
Industrial agriculture and beef production for example, is a major cause of deforestation
in the Amazon, to raise cattle. This is not even for local needs, but to meet fast food
restaurant demands in the Northern countries. A combination of geopolitics and
economic agreements foster a scenario for such results to occur.

Impact on Agricultural industry:

Tree is a most important agricultural factor. It keeps balance in the environment. It takes
the carbon - de- oxide (CO2) from the environment that we leave with our breadth.
Deforestation is harmful for us. When
Evolution and meaning of bio diversity
Biodiversity is a portmanteau word, from biology and diversity, originating from and
used interchangeably with "biological diversity." This term was used first by wildlife
scientist and conservationist Raymond F. Dasmann in a lay book[3] advocating nature
conservation. It was not widely adopted for more than a decade, when in the 1980s it and
"biodiversity" came into common usage in science and environmental policy. Use of the
term by Thomas Lovejoy in the Forward to the book[4] credited with launching the field
of conservation biology introduced the term along with "conservation biology" to the
scientific community. Until then the term "natural diversity" was used in conservation
science circles, including by The Science Division of The Nature Conservancy in an
important 1975 study, "The Preservation of Natural Diversity." By the early 1980s TNC's
Science program and its head Robert E. Jenkins, Lovejoy, and other leading conservation
scientists at the time in America advocated the use of "biological diversity" to embrace
the object of biological conservation.

Its contracted form biodiversity may have been coined by W.G. Rosen in 1985 while
planning the National Forum on Biological Diversity organized by the National Research
Council (NRC) which was to be held in 1986, and first misha appeared in a publication in
1988 when entomologist E. O. Wilson used it as the title of the proceedings[5] of that
forum.[6]

Since this period both terms and the concept have achieved widespread use among
biologists, environmentalists, political leaders, and concerned citizens worldwide. It is
generally used to equate to a concern for the natural environment and nature
conservation. This use has coincided with the expansion of concern over extinction
observed in the last decades of the 20th century.

A similar concept in use in the United States, besides natural diversity, is the term
"natural heritage." It pre-dates both terms though it is a less scientific term and more
easily comprehended in some ways by the wider audience interested in conservation.
"Natural Heritage" was used when Jimmy Carter set up the Georgia Heritage Trust while
he was governor of Georgia; Carter's trust dealt with both natural and cultural heritage. It
would appear that Carter picked the term up from Lyndon Johnson, who used it in a 1966
Message to Congress. "Natural Heritage" was picked up by the Science Division of the
US Nature Conservancy when, under Jenkins, it launched in 1974 the network of State
Natural Heritage Programs. When this network was extended outside the USA, the term
"Conservation Data Center" was suggested by Guillermo Mann and came to be preferred.

Definitions
Biologists most often define "biological diversity" or "biodiversity" as the "totality of
genes, species, and ecosystems of a region". An advantage of this definition is that it
seems to describe most circumstances and present a unified view of the traditional three
levels at which biological variety has been identified:

• genetic diversity
• species diversity
• ecosystem diversity

This multilevel conception is consistent with the early use of "biological diversity" in
Washington. D.C. and international conservation organizations in the late 1960s through
1970's, by Raymond F. Dasmann who apparently coined the term and Thomas E. Love
joy who later introduced it to the wider conservation and science communities. An
explicit definition consistent with this interpretation was first given in a paper by Bruce
A. Wilcox commissioned by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and
Natural Resources (IUCN) for the 1982 World National Parks Conference in Bali [7] The
definition Wilcox gave is "Biological diversity is the variety of life forms...at all levels of
biological systems (i.e., molecular, organismic, population, species and ecosystem)..."
Subsequently, the 1992 United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro defined
"biological diversity" as "the variability among living organisms from all sources,
including, 'inter alia', terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological
complexes of which they are part: this includes diversity within species, between species
and of ecosystems". This is, in fact, the closest thing to a single legally accepted
definition of biodiversity, since it is the definition adopted by the United Nations
Convention on Biological Diversity.

The current textbook definition of "biodiversity" is "variation of life at all levels of

biological organization".[8]

If the gene is the fundamental unit of natural selection, according to E. O. Wilson, the
real biodiversity is genetic diversity. For geneticists, biodiversity is the diversity of genes
and organisms. They study processes such as mutations, gene exchanges, and genome
dynamics that occur at the DNA level and generate evolution. Consistent with this, along
with the above definition the Wilcox paper stated "genes are the ultimate source of
biological organization at all levels of biological systems..."

Measurement
Polar bears on the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean, near the north pole.

Biodiversity is a broad concept, so a variety of objective measures have been created in

order to empirically measure biodiversity. Each measure of biodiversity relates to a
particular use of the data.

For practical conservationists, this measure should quantify a value that is broadly shared
among locally affected people. For others, a more economically defensible definition
should allow the ensuring of continued possibilities for both adaptation and future use by
people, assuring environmental sustainability.

As a consequence, biologists argue that this measure is likely to be associated with the
variety of genes. Since it cannot always be said which genes are more likely to prove
beneficial, the best choice for conservation is to assure the persistence of as many genes
as possible. For ecologists, this latter approach is sometimes considered too restrictive, as
it prohibits ecological succession.

Biodiversity is usually plotted as taxonomic richness of a geographic area, with some

reference to a temporal scale. Whittaker[9] described three common metrics used to
measure species-level biodiversity, encompassing attention to species richness or species
evenness:

• Species richness - the least sophisticated of the indices available.

• Simpson index
• Shannon-Wiener index

There are three other indices which are used by ecologists:

• Alpha diversity refers to diversity within a particular area, community or

ecosystem, and is measured by counting the number of taxa within the ecosystem
(usually species)
• Beta diversity is species diversity between ecosystems; this involves comparing
the number of taxa that are unique to each of the ecosystems.
 • Gamma diversity is a measurement of the overall diversity for different
ecosystems within a region.

Distribution

A conifer forest in the Swiss Alps (National Park).

Selection bias continues to bedevil modern estimates of biodiversity. In 1768 Rev.

Gilbert White succinctly observed of his Selborne, Hampshire "all nature is so full, that
that district produces the most variety which is the most examined."[10]

Nevertheless, biodiversity is not distributed evenly on Earth. It is consistently richer in

the tropics and in other localized regions such as the Cape Floristic Province. As one
approaches polar regions one generally finds fewer species. Flora and fauna diversity
depends on climate, altitude, soils and the presence of other species. In the year 2006
large numbers of the Earth's species were formally classified as rare or endangered or
threatened species; moreover, many scientists have estimated that there are millions more
species actually endangered which have not yet been formally recognized. About 40
percent of the 40,177 species assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria, are now listed as
threatened species with extinction - a total of 16,119 species.[11]

Even though biodiversity declines from the equator to the poles in terrestrial ecoregions,
whether this is so in aquatic ecosystems is still a hypothesis to be tested, especially in
marine ecosystems where causes of this phenomenon are unclear [12]. In addition,
particularly in marine ecosystems, there are several well stated cases where diversity in
higher latitudes actually increases. Therefore, the lack of information on biodiversity of
Tropics and Polar Regions prevents scientific conclusions on the distribution of the
world’s aquatic biodiversity.

A biodiversity hotspot is a region with a high level of endemic species. These

biodiversity hotspots were first identified by Dr. Norman Myers in two articles in the
scientific journal The Environmentalist.[13][14] Dense human habitation tends to occur near
hotspots. Most hotspots are located in the tropics and most of them are forests.

Brazil's Atlantic Forest is considered a hotspot of biodiversity and contains roughly

20,000 plant species, 1350 vertebrates, and millions of insects, about half of which occur
nowhere else in the world. The island of Madagascar including the unique Madagascar
dry deciduous forests and lowland rainforests possess a very high ratio of species
endemism and biodiversity, since the island separated from mainland Africa 65 million
years ago, most of the species and ecosystems have evolved independently producing
unique species different from those in other parts of Africa.

Many regions of high biodiversity (as well as high endemism) arise from very specialized
habitats which require unusual adaptation mechanisms. For example the peat bogs of
Northern Europe.

Evolution

Apparent marine fossil diversity during the Phanerozoic Eon.

Biodiversity found on Earth today is the result of 4 billion years of evolution. The origin
of life has not been definitely established by science, however some evidence suggests
that life may already have been well-established a few hundred million years after the
formation of the Earth. Until approximately 600 million years ago, all life consisted of
archaea, bacteria, protozoans and similar single-celled organisms.

The history of biodiversity during the Phanerozoic (the last 540 million years), starts with
rapid growth during the Cambrian explosion—a period during which nearly every
phylum of multicellular organisms first appeared. Over the next 400 million years or so,
global diversity showed little overall trend, but was marked by periodic, massive losses
of diversity classified as mass extinction events.

The apparent biodiversity shown in the fossil record suggests that the last few million
years include the period of greatest biodiversity in the Earth's history. However, not all
scientists support this view, since there is considerable uncertainty as to how strongly the
fossil record is biased by the greater availability and preservation of recent geologic
sections. Some (e.g. Alroy et al. 2001) argue that, corrected for sampling artifacts,
modern biodiversity is not much different from biodiversity 300 million years ago.[15]
Estimates of the present global macroscopic species diversity vary from 2 million to 100
million species, with a best estimate of somewhere near 13–14 million, the vast majority
of them arthropods.

Most biologists agree however that the period since the emergence of humans is part of a
new mass extinction, the Holocene extinction event, caused primarily by the impact
humans are having on the environment. It has been argued that the present rate of
extinction is sufficient to eliminate most species on the planet Earth within 100 years.[17]

New species are regularly discovered (on average between 5–10,000 new species each
year, most of them insects) and many, though discovered, are not yet classified (estimates
are that nearly 90% of all arthropods are not yet classified).[16] Most of the terrestrial
diversity is found in tropical forests.

Human Benefits
Summer field in Belgium (Hamois).

Biodiversity also supports a number of natural ecosystem processes and services. Some
ecosystem services that benefit society are air quality, climate (both global CO2
sequestration and local), water purification, disease control, biological pest control,
pollination and prevention of erosion. Biodiversity is also believed to create stability in
ecosystems, allowing these ecosystems to continue providing services in the face of
disturbances.

Non-material benefits that are obtained from ecosystems include spiritual and aesthetic
values, knowledge systems and the value of education. Biodiversity is also central to an
ecocentric philosophy.

Agriculture

The economic value of the reservoir of genetic traits present in wild varieties and
traditionally grown landraces is extremely important in improving crop performance.
Important crops, such as the potato and coffee, are often derived from only a few genetic
strains. Improvements in crop plants over the last 250 years have been largely due to
harnessing the genetic diversity present in wild and domestic crop plants. Interbreeding
crops strains with different beneficial traits has resulted in more than doubling crop
production in the last 50 years as a result of the Green Revolution.

Crop diversity is also necessary to help the system recover when the dominant crop type
is attacked by a disease:
 • The Irish potato blight of 1846, which was a major factor in the deaths of a
million people and migration of another million, was the result of planting only
two potato varieties, both of which were vulnerable.
• When rice grassy stunt virus struck rice fields from Indonesia to India in the
1970s. 6273 varieties were tested for resistance.[18] One was found to be resistant,
an Indian variety, known to science only since 1966.[18] This variety formed a
hybrid with other varieties and is now widely grown.[18]
• Coffee rust attacked coffee plantations in Sri Lanka, Brazil, and Central America
in 1970. A resistant variety was found in Ethiopia.[19]

Although the diseases are themselves a form of biodiversity.

Monoculture, the lack of biodiversity, was a contributing factor to several agricultural

disasters in history, including the Irish Potato Famine, the European wine industry
collapse in the late 1800s, and the US Southern Corn Leaf Blight epidemic of 1970.[20]
See also: Agricultural biodiversity

Higher biodiversity also controls the spread of certain diseases as pathogens will need to
adapt to infect different species.

Amazon Rainforest in Brazil.

Biodiversity provides food for humans. Although about 80 percent of our food supply
comes from just 20 kinds of plants, humans use at least 40,000 species of plants and
animals a day. Many people around the world depend on these species for their food,
shelter, and clothing. There is untapped potential for increasing the range of food
products suitable for human consumption, provided that the high present extinction rate
can be stopped.[17]

Human Health

The relevance of biodiversity to human health is becoming a major international political

issue, as scientific evidence builds on the global health implications of biodiversity loss.
[21][22][23]
This issue is closely linked with the issue of climate change, as many of the
anticipated health risks of climate change are associated with changes in biodiversity (e.g.
changes in populations and distribution of disease vectors, scarcity of fresh water,
impacts on agricultural biodiversity and food resources etc). Some of the health issues
influenced by biodiversity include dietary health and nutrition security, infectious
diseases, medical science and medicinal resources, social and psychological health, and
spiritual well-being. Biodiversity is also known to have an important role in reducing
disaster risk, and in post-disaster relief and recovery efforts.[24][25]

One of the key health issues associated with biodiversity is that of drug discovery and the
availability of medicinal resources. A significant proportion of drugs are derived, directly
or indirectly, from biological sources; Chivian and Bernstein report that at least 50% of
the pharmaceutical compounds on the market in the US are derived from natural
compounds found in plants, animals, and microorganisms, while about 80% of the world
population depends on medicines from nature (used in either modern or traditional
medical practice) for primary healthcare.[26] Moreover, only a tiny proportion of the total
diversity of wild species has been investigated for potential sources of new drugs.
Through the field of bionics, considerable technological advancement has occurred which
would not have without a rich biodiversity. It has been argued, based on evidence from
market analysis and biodiversity science, that the decline in output from the
pharmaceutical sector since the mid-1980s can be attributed to a move away from natural
product exploration ("bioprospecting") in favour of R&D programmes based on
genomics and synthetic chemistry, neither of which have yielded the expected product
outputs; meanwhile, there is evidence that natural product chemistry can provide the
basis for innovation which can yield significant economic and health benefits.[27][28].
Marine ecosystems are of particular interest in this regard[29], however unregulated and
inappropriate bioprospecting can be considered a form of over-exploitation which has the
potential to degrade ecosystems and increase biodiversity loss, as well as impacting on
the rights of the communities and states from which the resources are taken.[30][31][32]

Business and Industry

A wide range of industrial materials are derived directly from biological resources. These
include building materials, fibers, dyes, resirubber and oil. There is enormous potential
for further research into sustainably utilizing materials from a wider diversity of
organisms. In addition, biodivesity and the ecosystem goods and services it provides are
considered to be fundamental to healthy economic systems. The degree to which
biodiversity supports business varies between regions and between economic sectors,
however the importance of biodiversity to issues of resource security (water quantity and
quality, timber, paper and fibre, food and medicinal resources etc) are increasingly
recognized as universal.[33][34][35] As a result, the loss of biodiversity is increasingly
recognized as a significant risk factor in business development and a threat to long term
economic sustainability. A number of case studies recently compiled by the World
Resources Institute demonstrate some of these risks as identified by specific industries.[36]

Eagle Creek, Oregon hiking

Other ecological services

Biodiversity provides many ecosystem services that are often not readily visible. It plays
a part in regulating the chemistry of our atmosphere and water supply. Biodiversity is
directly involved in water purification, recycling nutrients and providing fertile soils.
Experiments with controlled environments have shown that humans cannot easily build
ecosystems to support human needs; for example insect pollination cannot be mimicked
by human-made construction, and that activity alone represents tens of billions of dollars
in ecosystem services per annum to humankind.

The stability of ecosystems is also related to biodiversity, with higher biodiversity

producing greater stability over time, reducing the chance that ecosystem services will be
disrupted as a result of disturbances such as extreme weather events or human
exploitation.

Leisure, cultural and aesthetic value

Many people derive value from biodiversity through leisure activities such as hiking,
birdwatching or natural history study. Biodiversity has inspired musicians, painters,
sculptors, writers and other artists. Many cultural groups view themselves as an integral
part of the natural world and show respect for other living organisms.
Popular activities such as gardening, caring for aquariums and collecting butterflies are
all strongly dependent on biodiversity. The number of species involved in such pursuits is
in the tens of thousands, though the great majority does not enter mainstream
commercialism.

The relationships between the original natural areas of these often 'exotic' animals and
plants and commercial collectors, suppliers, breeders, propagators and those who
promote their understanding and enjoyment are complex and poorly understood. It seems
clear, however, that the general public responds well to exposure to rare and unusual
organisms—they recognize their inherent value at some level. A family outing to the
botanical garden or zoo is as much an aesthetic or cultural experience as it is an
educational one.

Philosophically it could be argued that biodiversity has intrinsic aesthetic and spiritual
value to mankind in and of itself. This idea can be used as a counterweight to the notion
that tropical forests and other ecological realms are only worthy of conservation because
they may contain medicines or useful products.

An interesting point is that evolved DNA embodies knowledge,[37] and therefore

destroying a species resembles burning a book, with the caveat that the book is of
uncertain depth and importance and may in fact be best used as fuel.
Externality
"External" redirects here. For other uses, see External (disambiguation).

In economics, an externality or spillover of an economic transaction is an impact on a

party that is not directly involved in the transaction. In such a case, prices do not reflect
the full costs or benefits in production or consumption of a product or service. A positive
impact is called an external benefit, while a negative impact is called an external cost.
Producers and consumers in a market may either not bear all of the costs or not reap all of
the benefits of the economic activity. For example, manufacturing that cause’s air
pollution imposes costs on the whole society, while fire-proofing a home improves the
fire safety of neighbors.

In a competitive market, the existence of externalities would cause either too much or too
little of the good to be produced or consumed in terms of overall costs and benefits to
society. If there exist external costs such as pollution, the good will be overproduced by a
competitive market, as the producer does not take into account the external costs when
producing the good. If there are external benefits, such as in areas of education or public
safety, too little of the good would be produced by private markets as producers and
buyers do not take into account the external benefits to others. Here, overall cost and
benefit to society is defined as the sum of the economic benefits and costs for all parties
involved.

External costs and benefits

Implications
Standard economic theory states that any voluntary exchange is mutually beneficial to
both parties involved in the trade. This is because if either the buyer or the seller would
not benefit from the trade, they would refuse it. However, an exchange can cause
additional effects on third parties. From the perspective of those affected, these effects
may be negative (pollution from a factory), or positive (honey bees that pollinate the
garden). Welfare economics has shown that the existence of externalities result in
outcomes that are not socially optimal. Those who suffer from external costs do so
involuntarily, while those who enjoy external benefits do so at no cost.

A voluntary exchange may reduce societal welfare if external costs exist. The person who
is affected by the negative externality in the case of air pollution will see it as lowered
utility: either subjective displeasure or potentially explicit costs, such as higher medical
expenses. The externality may even be seen as a trespass on their lungs, violating their
property rights. Thus, an external cost may pose an ethical or political problem.
Alternatively, it might be seen as a case of poorly-defined property rights, as with, for
example, pollution of bodies of water that may belong to no-one (either figuratively, in
the case of publicly-owned, or literally, in some countries and/or legal traditions).

On the other hand, an external benefit would increase the utility of third parties at no cost
to them. Since collective societal welfare is improved, but the providers have no way of
monetizing the benefit, less of the good will be produced than would be optimal for
society as a whole. Goods with positive externalities include education (believed to
increase societal productivity and well-being; but controversial, as these benefits may be
internalized), health care (which may reduce the health risks and costs for third parties for
such things as transmittable diseases) and law enforcement. Positive externalities are
often associated with the free rider problem. For example, individuals who are vaccinated
reduce the risk of contracting the relevant disease for all others around them, and at high
levels of vaccination, society may receive large health and welfare benefits; but any one
individual can refuse vaccination, still avoiding the disease by "free riding" on the costs
borne by others.

There are a number of potential means of improving overall social utility when
externalities are involved. The market-driven approach to correcting externalities is to
"internalize" third party costs and benefits, for example, by requiring a polluter to repair
any damage caused. But, in many cases internalizing costs or benefits is not feasible,
especially if the true monetary values cannot be determined.

The monetary values of externalities are difficult to quantify, as they may reflect the
ethical views and preferences of the entire population. It may not be clear whose
preferences are most important, interests may conflict, the value of externalities may be
difficult to determine, and all parties involved may try to influence the policy responses
to their own benefit. An example is the externalities of the smoking of tobacco, which
can cost or benefit society depending on the situation. Because it may not be feasible to
monetize the costs and benefits, another method is needed to either impose solutions or
aggregate the choices of society, when externalities are significant. This may be through
some form of representative democracy or other means. Political economy is, in broad
terms, the study of the means and results of aggregating those choices and benefits that
are not limited to purely private transactions.
Laissez-faire economists such as Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman sometimes refer
to externalities as "neighborhood effects" or "spillovers", although externalities are not
necessarily minor or localized.

Examples
Negative

Many negative externalities (also called "external costs" or "external diseconomies") are
related to the environmental consequences of production and use. The article on
environmental economics also addresses externalities and how they may be addressed in
the context of environmental issues.

• Systemic risk describes the risks to the overall economy arising from the risks
which the banking system takes. That the private costs of banking failure may be
smaller than the social costs justifies banking regulations, although regulations
could create a moral hazard.[1]

• Anthropogenic climate change is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions from

burning oil, gas, and coal. Global warming has been ranked as the #1 externality
of all economic activity, in the magnitude of potential harms and yet remains
unmitigated.[citation needed]

• Water pollution by industries that adds poisons to the water, which harm plants,
animals, and humans.

• Industrial farm animal production, on the rise in the 20th century, resulted in
farms that were easier to run, with fewer and often less-highly-skilled employees,
and a greater output of uniform animal products. However, the externalities with
these farms include "contributing to the increase in the pool of antibiotic-resistant
bacteria because of the overuse of antibiotics; air quality problems; the
contamination of rivers, streams, and coastal waters with concentrated animal
waste; animal welfare problems, mainly as a result of the extremely close quarters
in which the animals are housed." [2][3]

• The harvesting by one fishing company in the ocean depletes the stock of
available fish for the other companies and overfishing may be the result. This is
an example of a common property resource, sometimes referred to as the Tragedy
of the commons.

• When car owners use roads, they impose congestion costs on all other users.

• A business may purposely underfund one part of their business, such as their
pension funds, in order to push the costs onto someone else, creating an
externality. Here, the "cost" is that of providing minimum social welfare or
 retirement income; economists more frequently attribute this problem to the
category of moral hazards.

• Consumption by one consumer causes prices to rise and therefore makes other
consumers worse off, perhaps by reducing their consumption. These effects are
sometimes called "pecuniary externalities". Many economists do not accept the
concept of pecuniary externalities, attributing such problems to anti-competitive
behavior, monopoly power, or other definitions of market failures.

• The consumption of alcohol by bar-goers in some cases leads to drinking and

driving accidents which injure or kill pedestrians and other drivers.

• Commonized costs of declining health and vitality caused by smoking and/or

alcohol abuse. Here, the "cost" is that of providing minimum social welfare.
Economists more frequently attribute this problem to the category of moral
hazards, the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from
the way they would if they were fully exposed to the risk. For example, an
individual with insurance against automobile theft may be less vigilant about
locking his car, because the negative consequences of automobile theft are
(partially) borne by the insurance company.

• The cost of storing nuclear waste from nuclear plants for more than 1,000 years
(over 100,000 for some types of nuclear waste) is not included in the cost of the
electricity the plant produces. If the nuclear waste is not handled properly it would
be a problem for the coming generations, which is the third party in this instance.

In these situations the marginal social benefit of consumption is less than the marginal
private benefit of consumption. (i.e. SMB < PMB) This leads to the good or service being
over-consumed relative to the social optimum. Without intervention the good or service
will be under-priced and the negative externalities will not be taken into account.

Positive

Examples of positive externalities (beneficial externality, external benefit, external

economy, or Merit goods) include:

• A beekeeper keeps the bees for their honey. A side effect or externality associated
with his activity is the pollination of surrounding crops by the bees. The value
generated by the pollination may be more important than the value of the
harvested honey.

• An individual planting an attractive garden in front of his house may provide

benefits to others living in the area, and even financial benefits in the form of
increased property values for all property owners.
 • An individual buying a product that is interconnected in a network (e.g., a video
cellphone) will increase the usefulness of such phones to other people who have a
video cellphone. When each new user of a product increases the value of the same
product owned by others, the phenomenon is called a network externality or a
network effect. Network externalities often have "tipping points" where,
suddenly, the product reaches general acceptance and near-universal usage, a
phenomenon which can be seen in the near universal take-up of cellphones in
some Scandinavian countries.

• Knowledge spillover of inventions and information - once an invention (or most

other forms of practical information) is discovered or made more easily
accessible, others benefit by exploiting the invention or information. Copyright
and intellectual property law are mechanisms to allow the inventor or creator to
benefit from a temporary, state-protected monopoly in return for "sharing" the
information through publication or other means.

• Sometimes the better part of a benefit from a good comes from having the option
to buy something rather than actually having to buy it. A private fire department
that only charged people that had a fire, would arguably provide a positive
externality at the expense of an unlucky few. Some form of insurance could be a
solution in such cases, as long as people can accurately evaluate the benefit they
have from the option.

• A family member buying a movie or game will provide a positive externality to

the rest of the family, who then can watch the movie or play the game.

• An organization that purchases a large screen and projector will give benefits to
those who may use the screen for various purposes.

• Home ownership creates a positive externality in that homeowners are more likely
than renters to become actively involved in the local community. For this reason,
in the US interest paid on a home mortgage is an available deduction from the
income tax.

• Education creates a positive externality because more educated people are less
likely to engage in violent crime, which makes everyone in the community, even
people who are not well educated, better off.

As noted, externalities (or proposed solutions to externalities) may also imply political
conflicts, rancorous lawsuits, and the like. This may make the problem of externalities
too complex for the concept of Pareto optimality to handle. Similarly, if too many
positive externalities fall outside the participants in a transaction, there will be too little
incentive on parties to participate in activities that lead to the positive externalities.
Positional

Positional externalities refer to a special type of externality that depends on the relative
rankings of actors in a situation. Because every actor is attempting to "one up" other
actors, the consequences are unintended and economically inefficient.

One example is the phenomenon of "overeducation" (referring to post-secondary

education) in the North American labour market. In the 1960s, many young middle-class
North Americans prepared for their careers by completing a bachelor's degree. However,
by the 1990s, many people from the same social milieu were completing master's
degrees, hoping to "one up" the other competitors in the job market by signalling their
higher quality as potential employees. By the 2000s, some jobs which had previously
only demanded bachelor's degrees, such as policy analysis posts, were requiring master's
degrees. Some economists argue that this increase in educational requirements was above
that which was efficient, and that it was a misuse of the societal and personal resources
that go into the completion of these master's degrees.

Another example is the buying of jewelry as a gift for another person, e.g. a spouse. For
Husband A to show that he values Wife A more than Husband B values Wife B, Husband
A must buy more expensive jewelry than Husband B. As in the first example, the cycle
continues to get worse, because every actor positions him or herself in relation to the
other actors. This is sometimes called Keeping up with the Joneses.

One solution to such externalities is regulations imposed by an outside authority. For the
first example, the government might pass a law against firms requiring master's degrees
unless the job actually required these advanced skills.

Supply and demand

The price P of a product is determined by a balance between production at each price

(supply S) and the desires of those with purchasing power at each price (demand D). 2,
along with a consequent increase in price and quantity Q sold of the product.
Supply and demand is an economic model based on price and quantity in a market. It
predicts that in a competitive market, price will function to equalize the quantity
demanded by consumers, and the quantity supplied by producers, resulting in an
economic equilibrium of price and quantity. The model incorporates other factors
changing equilibrium as a shift of demand and/or supply.

Demand schedule
In microeconomic theory, demand is defined as the willingness and ability of a consumer
to purchase a given product in a given frame of time.

The demand schedule, depicted graphically as the demand curve, represents the amount
of goods that buyers are willing and able to purchase at various prices, assuming all other
non-price factors remain the same. The demand curve is almost always represented as
downwards-sloping, meaning that as price decreases, consumers will buy more of the
good.[1]

Just as the supply curves reflect marginal cost curves, demand curves can be described as
marginal utility curves.[2]

The main determinants of individual demand are: the price of the good, level of income,
personal tastes, the population (number of people), the government policies, the price of
substitute goods, and the price of complementary goods.

The shape of the aggregate demand curve can be convex or concave, possibly depending
on income distribution.

As described above, the demand curve is generally downward sloping. There may be rare
examples of goods that have upward sloping demand curves. Two different hypothetical
types of goods with upward-sloping demand curves are a Giffen good (an inferior, but
staple, good) and a Veblen good (a good made more fashionable by a higher price).

Similar to the supply curve, movements along it are also named expansions and
contractions. A move downward on the demand curve is called an expansion of demand,
since the willingness and ability of consumers to buy a given good has increased, in
tandem with a fall in its price. Conversely, a move up the demand curve is called a
contraction of demand, since consumers are less willing and able to purchase quantities
of the product in question.

Changes in market equilibrium

Practical uses of supply and demand analysis often center on the different variables that
change equilibrium price and quantity, represented as shifts in the respective curves.
Comparative statics of such a shift traces the effects from the initial equilibrium to the
new equilibrium.

Demand curve shifts

An out-ward or right-ward shift in demand increases both equilibrium price and quantity

When consumers increase the quantity demanded at a given price, it is referred to as an

increase in demand. Increased demand can be represented on the graph as the curve
being shifted outward. At each price point, a greater quantity is demanded, as from the
initial curve D1 to the new curve D2. More people wanting coffee is an example. In the
diagram, this raises the equilibrium price from P1 to the higher P2. This raises the
equilibrium quantity from Q1 to the higher Q2. A movement along the curve is described
as a "change in the quantity demanded" to distinguish it from a "change in demand," that
is, a shift of the curve. In the example above, there has been an increase in demand which
has caused an increase in (equilibrium) quantity. The increase in demand could also come
from changing tastes and fads, incomes, complementary and substitute price changes,
market expectations, and number of buyers. This would cause the entire demand curve to
shift changing the equilibrium price and quantity.

If the demand decreases, then the opposite happens: an inward shift of the curve. If the
demand starts at D2, and decreases to D1, the price will decrease, and the quantity will
decrease. This is an effect of demand changing. The quantity supplied at each price is the
same as before the demand shift (at both Q1 and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and
demand are different. At each point, a greater amount is demanded (when there is a shift
from D1 to D2).

The demand curve "shifts" because a non-price determinant of demand has changed.
Graphically the shift is due to a change in the x-intercept.

Supply curve shifts

An out-ward or right-ward shift in supply reduces equilibrium price but increases
quantity

When the suppliers' costs change for a given output, the supply curve shifts in the same
direction. For example, assume that someone invents a better way of growing wheat so
that the cost of wheat that can be grown for a given quantity will decrease. Otherwise
stated, producers will be willing to supply more wheat at every price and this shifts the
supply curve S1 outward, to S2—an increase in supply. This increase in supply causes the
equilibrium price to decrease from P1 to P2. The equilibrium quantity increases from Q1
to Q2 as the quantity demanded extends at the new lower prices. In a supply curve shift,
the price and the quantity move in opposite directions.

If the quantity supplied decreases at a given price, the opposite happens. If the supply
curve starts at S2, and shifts inward to S1, demand contracts, the equilibrium price will
increase, and the equilibrium quantity will decrease. This is an effect of supply changing.
The quantity demanded at each price is the same as before the supply shift (at both Q1
and Q2). The equilibrium quantity, price and supply changed.

When there is a change in supply or demand, there are three possible movements. The
demand curve can move inward or outward. The supply curve can also move inward or
outward.

Supply and demand diagram

The usual economic analysis of externalities can be illustrated using a standard supply
and demand diagram if the externality can be monetized and valued in terms of money.
An extra supply or demand curve is added, as in the diagrams below. One of the curves is
the private cost that consumers pay as individuals for additional quantities of the good,
which in competitive markets, is the marginal private cost. The other curve is the true
cost that society as a whole pays for production and consumption of increased production
the good, or the marginal social cost.

Similarly there might be two curves for the demand or benefit of the good. The social
demand curve would reflect the benefit to society as a whole, while the normal demand
curve reflects the benefit to consumers as individuals and is reflected as effective demand
in the market.

External costs

The graph below shows the effects of a negative externality. For example, the steel
industry is assumed to be selling in a competitive market – before pollution-control laws
were imposed and enforced (e.g. under laissez-faire). The marginal private cost is less
than the marginal social or public cost by the amount of the external cost, i.e., the cost of
air pollution and water pollution. This is represented by the vertical distance between the
two supply curves. It is assumed that there are no external benefits, so that social benefit
equals individual benefit.

Supply & Demand with external costs

If the consumers only take into account their own private cost, they will end up at price
Pp and quantity Qp, instead of the more efficient price Ps and quantity Qs. These latter
reflect the idea that the marginal social benefit should equal the marginal social cost, that
is that production should be increased only as long as the marginal social benefit exceeds
the marginal social cost. The result is that a free market is inefficient since at the quantity
Qp, the social benefit is less than the social cost, so society as a whole would be better off
if the goods between Qp and Qs had not been produced. The problem is that people are
buying and consuming too much steel.

This discussion implies that pollution is more than merely an ethical problem; it is more
than just "greedy" and profit-maximizing firms. The problem is one of the disjuncture
between marginal private and social costs that is not solved by the free market. There is a
problem of societal communication and coordination to balance benefits and costs. This
discussion also implies that pollution is not something solved by competitive markets. In
fact, a monopoly might be able to use some of its excess profits to be benevolent and
internalize the externality (pay the cost of the pollution). More likely, a monopoly would
artificially restrict the quantity supplied in order to maximize profits. This would actually
benefit society in this situation because it would mean less pollution than in the
competitive case. Perfectly competitive firms have no choice but to produce according to
market incentives or private costs: if one decides to internalize external costs, it implies
that this producer would incur higher costs than those of its competitors and likely be
forced to exit from the market. So some collective solution is needed, such as,
government intervention banning or discouraging pollution, by means of economic
incentives such as taxes, or an alternative economy such as participatory economics.

External benefits

The graph below shows the effects of a positive or beneficial externality. For example,
the industry supplying smallpox vaccinations is assumed to be selling in a competitive
market. The marginal private benefit of getting the vaccination is less than the marginal
social or public benefit by the amount of the external benefit (for example, society as a
whole is increasingly protected from smallpox by each vaccination, including those who
refuse to participate). This marginal external benefit of getting a smallpox shot is
represented by the vertical distance between the two demand curves. Assume there are no
external costs, so that social cost equals individual cost.
Supply & Demand with external benefits

If consumers only take into account their own private benefits from getting vaccinations,
the market will end up at price Pp and quantity Qp as before, instead of the more efficient
price Ps and quantity Qs. These latter again reflect the idea that the marginal social benefit
should equal the marginal social cost, i.e., that production should be increased as long as
the marginal social benefit exceeds the marginal social cost. The result in an unfettered
market is inefficient since at the quantity Qp, the social benefit is greater than the societal
cost, so society as a whole would be better off if more goods had been produced. The
problem is that people are buying too few vaccinations.

The issue of external benefits is related to that of public goods, which are goods where it
is difficult if not impossible to exclude people from benefits. The production of a public
good has beneficial externalities for all, or almost all, of the public. As with external
costs, there is a problem here of societal communication and coordination to balance
benefits and costs. This also implies that vaccination is not something solved by
competitive markets. The government may have to step in with a collective solution, such
as subsidizing or legally requiring vaccine use. If the government does this, the good is
called a merit good.

Possible solutions
There are at least four general types of solutions to the problem of externalities:

• Criminalization: As with prostitution, addictive drugs, commercial fraud, and

many types of environmental and public health laws.
• Civil Tort law: For example, class action by smokers, various product liability
suits.
• Government provision: As with lighthouses, education, and national defense.
• Pigovian taxes or subsidies intended to redress economic injustices or imbalances.

Economists prefer Pigovian taxes and subsidies as being the least intrusive and
potentially the most efficient method to resolve externalities.

Government intervention may not always be needed. Traditional ways of life may have
evolved as ways to deal with external costs and benefits. Alternatively, democratically-
run communities can agree to deal with these costs and benefits in an amicable way.
Externalities can sometimes be resolved by agreement between the parties involved. This
resolution may even come about because of the threat of government action.

The first, and most common type of agreement, is tacit agreement through the political
process. Governments are elected to represent citizens and to strike political compromises
between various interests. Normally governments pass laws and regulations to address
pollution and other types of environmental harm. These laws and regulations can take the
form of "command and control" regulation (such as setting standards, targets, or process
requirements), or environmental pricing reform (such as ecotaxes or other pigovian taxes,
tradable pollution permits or the creation of markets for ecological services. The second
type of resolution is a purely private agreement between the parties involved.

Ronald Coase argued that if all parties involved can easily organize payments so as to
pay each other for their actions, then an efficient outcome can be reached without
government intervention. Some take this argument further, and make the political claim
that government should restrict its role to facilitating bargaining among the affected
groups or individuals and to enforcing any contracts that result. This result, often known
as the Coase Theorem, requires that

• Property rights are well defined

• People act rationally
• Transaction costs are minimal

If all of these conditions apply, the private parties can bargain to solve the problem of
externalities.

This theorem would not apply to the steel industry case discussed above. For example,
with a steel factory that trespasses on the lungs of a large number of individuals with
pollution, it is difficult if not impossible for any one person to negotiate with the
producer, and there are large transaction costs. Hence the most common approach may be
to regulate the firm (by imposing limits on the amount of pollution considered
"acceptable") while paying for the regulation and enforcement with taxes. The case of the
vaccinations would also not satisfy the requirements of the Coase Theorem. Since the
potential external beneficiaries of vaccination are the people themselves, the people
would have to self-organize to pay each other to be vaccinated. But such an organization
that involves the entire populace would be indistinguishable from government action.

In some cases, the Coase theorem is relevant. For example, if a logger is planning to
clear-cut a forest in a way that has a negative impact on a nearby resort, the resort-owner
and the logger could, in theory, get together to agree to a deal. For example, the resort-
owner could pay the logger not to clear-cut – or could buy the forest. The most
problematic situation, from Coase's perspective, occurs when the forest literally does not
belong to anyone; the question of "who" owns the forest is not important, as any specific
owner will have an interest in coming to an agreement with the resort owner (if such an
agreement is mutually beneficial).

Elasticity
Elasticity is a central concept in the theory of supply and demand. In this context,
elasticity refers to how supply and demand respond to various factors. One way to define
elasticity is the percentage change in one variable divided by the percentage change in
another variable (known as arc elasticity, which calculates the elasticity over a range of
values, in contrast with point elasticity, which uses differential calculus to determine the
elasticity at a specific point). It is a measure of relative changes.

Often, it is useful to know how the quantity demanded or supplied will change when the
price changes. This is known as the price elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of
supply. If a monopolist decides to increase the price of their product, how will this affect
their sales revenue? Will the increased unit price offset the likely decrease in sales
volume? If a government imposes a tax on a good, thereby increasing the effective price,
how will this affect the quantity demanded?

Elasticity corresponds to the slope of the line and is often expressed as a percentage. In
other words, the units of measure (such as gallons vs. quarts, say for the response of
quantity demanded of milk to a change in price) do not matter, only the slope. Since
supply and demand can be curves as well as simple lines the slope, and hence the
elasticity, can be different at different points on the line.

Elasticity is calculated as the percentage change in quantity over the associated

percentage change in price. For example, if the price moves from $1.00 to $1.05, and the
quantity supplied goes from 100 pens to 102 pens, the slope is 2/0.05 or 40 pens per
dollar. Since the elasticity depends on the percentages, the quantity of pens increased by
2%, and the price increased by 5%, so the price elasticity of supply is 2/5 or 0.4.

Since the changes are in percentages, changing the unit of measurement or the currency
will not affect the elasticity. If the quantity demanded or supplied changes a lot when the
price changes a little, it is said to be elastic. If the quantity changes little when the prices
changes a lot, it is said to be inelastic. An example of perfectly inelastic supply, or zero
elasticity, is represented as a vertical supply curve. (See that section below)

Elasticity in relation to variables other than price can also be considered. One of the most
common to consider is income. How would the demand for a good change if income
increased or decreased? This is known as the income elasticity of demand. For example,
how much would the demand for a luxury car increase if average income increased by
10%? If it is positive, this increase in demand would be represented on a graph by a
positive shift in the demand curve. At all price levels, more luxury cars would be
demanded.

Another elasticity sometimes considered is the cross elasticity of demand, which

measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded of a good to a change in the price
of another good. This is often considered when looking at the relative changes in demand
when studying complement and substitute goods. Complement goods are goods that are
typically utilized together, where if one is consumed, usually the other is also. Substitute
goods are those where one can be substituted for the other, and if the price of one good
rises, one may purchase less of it and instead purchase its substitute.

Cross elasticity of demand is measured as the percentage change in demand for the first
good that occurs in response to a percentage change in price of the second good. For an
example with a complement good, if, in response to a 10% increase in the price of fuel,
the quantity of new cars demanded decreased by 20%, the cross elasticity of demand
would be -2.0.

In a perfect economy, any market should be able to move to the equilibrium position
instantly without travelling along the curve. Any change in market conditions would
cause a jump from one equilibrium position to another at once. So the perfect economy is
actually analogous to the quantum economy. Unfortunately in real economic systems,
markets don't behave in this way, and both producers and consumers spend some time
travelling along the curve before they reach equilibrium position. This is due to
asymmetric, or at least imperfect, information, where no one economic agent could ever
be expected to know every relevant condition in every market. Ultimately both producers
and consumers must rely on trial and error as well as prediction and calculation to find an
the true equilibrium of a market. But supply and demand curves can still serve as an
excellent tool for making those kinds of predictions.

Vertical supply curve (Perfectly Inelastic Supply)

When demand D1 is in effect, the price will be P1. When D2 is occurring, the price will be
P2. The quantity is always Q, any shifts in demand will only affect price.

It is sometimes the case that a supply curve is vertical: that is the quantity supplied is
fixed, no matter what the market price. For example, the surface area or land of the world
is fixed. No matter how much someone would be willing to pay for an additional piece,
the extra cannot be created. Also, even if no one wanted all the land, it still would exist.
Land therefore has a vertical supply curve, giving it zero elasticity (i.e., no matter how
large the change in price, the quantity supplied will not change).

Supply-side economics argues that the aggregate supply function – the total supply
function of the entire economy of a country – is relatively vertical. Thus, supply-siders
argue against government stimulation of demand, which would only lead to inflation with
a vertical supply curve.
Other markets
The model of supply and demand also applies to various specialty markets.

The model applies to wages, which are determined by the market for labor. The typical
roles of supplier and consumer are reversed. The suppliers are individuals, who try to sell
their labor for the highest price. The consumers of labors are businesses, which try to buy
the type of labor they need at the lowest price. The equilibrium price for a certain type of
labor is the wage.[4]

The model applies to interest rates, which are determined by the money market. In the
short term, the money supply is a vertical supply curve, which the central bank of a
country can influence through monetary policy. The demand for money intersects with
the money supply to determine the interest rate.[5]

Other market forms

The supply and demand model is used to explain the behavior of perfectly competitive
markets, but its usefulness as a standard of performance extends to other types of
markets. In such markets, there may be no supply curve, such as above, except by
analogy. Rather, the supplier or suppliers are modeled as interacting with demand to
determine price and quantity. In particular, the decisions of the buyers and sellers are
interdependent in a way different from a perfectly competitive market.

A monopoly is the case of a single supplier that can adjust the supply or price of a good at
will. The profit-maximizing monopolist is modeled as adjusting the price so that its profit
is maximized given the amount that is demanded at that price. This price will be higher
than in a competitive market. A similar analysis can be applied when a good has a single
buyer, a monopsony, but many sellers. Oligopoly is a market with so few suppliers that
they must take account of their actions on the market price or each other. Game theory
may be used to analyze such a market.

The supply curve does not have to be linear. However, if the supply is from a profit-
maximizing firm, it can be proven that curves-downward sloping supply curves (i.e., a
price decrease increasing the quantity supplied) are inconsistent with perfect competition
in equilibrium. Then supply curves from profit-maximizing firms can be vertical,
horizontal or upward sloping.

Positively sloped demand curves?

Standard microeconomic assumptions cannot be used to disprove the existence of
upward-sloping demand curves. However, despite years of searching, no generally agreed
upon example of a good that has an upward-sloping demand curve (also known as a
Giffen good) has been found. Some suggest that luxury cosmetics can be classified as a
Giffen good. As the price of a high end luxury cosmetic drops, consumers see it as a low
quality good compared to its peers. The price drop may indicate lower quality
ingredients, thus consumers would not want to apply such an inferior product to their
face. Some example of a Giffen good could be potatoes during the Irish famine.

Lay economists sometimes believe that certain common goods have an upward-sloping
curve. For example, people will sometimes buy a prestige good (eg. a luxury car) because
it is expensive, a drop in price may actually reduce demand. However, in this case, the
good purchased is actually prestige, and not the car itself. So, when the price of the
luxury car decreases, it is actually decreasing the amount of prestige associated with the
good (see also Veblen good). A similar example is the increased demand for assets in the
growth phase of a speculative bubble (e.g., recent housing bubble), where higher prices
drive up demand because of higher expected future prices. However, even with
downward-sloping demand curves, it is possible that an increase in income may lead to a
decrease in demand for a particular good, probably due to the existence of more attractive
alternatives which become affordable: a good with this property is known as an inferior
good.

Negatively sloped supply curve

There are cases where the price of goods gets cheaper, but more of those goods are
produced. This is usually related to economies of scale and mass production. One
example is computer software where creating the first instance of a given computer
program has a high cost, but the marginal cost of copying this program and distributing it
to many consumers is low (almost zero).

Empirical estimation
Demand and supply relations in a market can be statistically estimated from price,
quantity, and other data with sufficient information in the model. This can be done with
simultaneous-equation methods of estimation in econometrics. Such methods allow
solving for the model-relevant "structural coefficients," the estimated algebraic
counterparts of the theory. The Parameter identification problem is a common issue in
"structural estimation." Typically, data on exogenous variables (that is, variables other
than price and quantity, both of which are endogenous variables) are needed to perform
such an estimation. An alternative to "structural estimation" is reduced-form estimation,
which regresses each of the endogenous variables on the respective exogenous variables.

Macroeconomic uses of demand and supply

Demand and supply have also been generalized to explain macroeconomic variables in a
market economy, including the quantity of total output and the general price level. The
Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply model may be the most direct application of
supply and demand to macroeconomics, but other macroeconomic models also use
supply and demand. Compared to microeconomic uses of demand and supply, different
(and more controversial) theoretical considerations apply to such macroeconomic
counterparts as aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Demand and supply may also
be used in macroeconomic theory to relate money supply to demand and interest rates.

Demand shortfalls
A demand shortfall results from the actual demand for a given product being lower than
the projected, or estimated, demand for that product. Demand shortfalls are caused by
demand overestimation in the planning of new products. Demand overestimation is
caused by optimism bias and/or strategic misrepresentation.

History
The power of supply and demand was understood to some extent by several early Muslim
economists, such as Ibn Taymiyyah who illustrates:

"If desire for goods increases while its availability decreases, its price rises. On the other
hand, if availability of the good increases and the desire for it decreases, the price comes
down."[6]

The phrase "supply and demand" was first used by James Denham-Steuart in his Inquiry
into the Principles of Political Economy, published in 1767. Adam Smith used the phrase
in his 1776 book The Wealth of Nations, and David Ricardo titled one chapter of his 1817
work Principles of Political Economy and Taxation "On the Influence of Demand and
Supply on Price".[7]

In The Wealth of Nations, Smith generally assumed that the supply price was fixed but
that its "merit" (value) would decrease as its "scarcity" increased, in effect what was later
called the law of demand. Ricardo, in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,
more rigorously laid down the idea of the assumptions that were used to build his ideas of
supply and demand. Antoine Augustin Cournot first developed a mathematical model of
supply and demand in his 1838 Researches on the Mathematical Principles of the Theory
of Wealth.

During the late 19th century the marginalist school of thought emerged. This field mainly
was started by Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger, and Léon Walras. The key idea was that the
price was set by the most expensive price, that is, the price at the margin. This was a
substantial change from Adam Smith's thoughts on determining the supply price.

In his 1870 essay "On the Graphical Representation of Supply and Demand", Fleeming
Jenkin drew for the first time the popular graphic of supply and demand which, through
Marshall, eventually would turn into the most famous graphic in economics.

The model was further developed and popularized by Alfred Marshall in the 1890
textbook Principles of Economics.[7] Along with Léon Walras, Marshall looked at the
equilibrium point where the two curves crossed. They also began looking at the effect of
markets on each other.

Technical Abstract: We examined the influence of different ecological factors on

outcrossing rate in populations of A. coerulea. Population size, distance between plants,
number of flowers per plant, spatial distance between anther and stigma, abundance of
bumblebees and hawkmoths, and outcrossing rate all varied among populations of this
species. Pollinator abundance also varied over time within one population. We first tested
the predictions expected between each ecological variable and outcrossing rate
separately. We then compared models with different number of factors, contrasting their
adjusted rsquare values and their Akaike information criteria (AIC) to identify the model
that best explained the variation in outcrossing rate in A. coerulea. Hawkmoth abundance
and total flowers per plant explained 87.6 % of the variation in outcrossing rate in this
species and had one of the lowest AIC. Because hawkmoth behavior and floral display
both influence the level of geitonogamy, the maintenance of mixed mating systems in
populations of A. coerulea requires little adaptive explanation.

The theory of supply and demand

"Teach a parrot to say supply and demand and you have an economist. Discuss"
(Question in a higher education final degree examination.)

The concepts of supply and demand are central to the study of economics. The body of theory is
substantial " standard undergraduate text books such as Lipsey"s An Introduction to
Positive Economics deal with the subject over several hundred pages.

Paper 4 requires the candidate to have an elementary understanding of supply and demand
theory. It is important to understand basic concepts and then apply them to real-life
situations. In doing so, some of the "nuts and bolts" of the theories may quite properly be
overlooked. For example, the candidate may have to demonstrate an ability to analyse a
situation using supply and demand curves without ever knowing - or needing to know -
how the curves are actually derived from first principles.

Background

Some regard Adam Smith as the founding father of economics. His famous book "The
Wealth of Nations" (1776) touched upon his perceptions of markets and how they
operate. Writing of the price system, which is built on the theories of supply and demand,
Smith stated that it was the "invisible hand which guides the actions of consumers and
producers".
Over a century later, Alfred Marshall proposed a more complex theory, focusing on
micro-economic analysis. It was Marshall who first formally identified the determinants of
supply and demand and then developed his concepts in diagrammatic form. The supply
and demand curves used in micro-economics today depend directly on Marshall"s work.

In the inter-war years, John Maynard Keynes drew inspiration from the work of Marshall
in formulating his "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". His theory of
effective demand (now more commonly referred to as aggregate demand) is a direct
extension of micro-economic analysis to macro-economic theory.

Supply

Supply is the flow of goods and services brought to the market place by producers in a
given time period.

Generally, the higher the price which can be obtained, the higher the quantity supplied.
Economists represent the supply curve by measuring price on the vertical axis and
quantity supplied on the horizontal axis, with the curve sloping upwards from left to right
(Figure 1).

Determinants of supply

The supply to a market will not be constant. The flow is influenced by several factors, all
of which may change over time.

Price:
As mentioned above, a higher price will prompt producers to supply more.
Prices of other goods and services:
Some goods and services display inter-dependency of supply. If the price of good A
increases this may render the supply of a good whose price remains unchanged less
attractive. An example of inter-dependency is gas bottles and gas heaters.

Costs of factors of production:

The factors of production (or productive resources) are the inputs to the production
process. They therefore, directly influence the capability of producers to bring products to
the market. These costs are those relating to land, labour, capital and the entrepreneur. If
the cost of land increases, producers may shift production towards goods which rely less
on land and more on other factors of production.

Technological innovation:
Advances in technology reduce the unit costs of production through economies of scale.
This can increase supply capability at each price level.

Producers" objectives:
Micro-economic theory relies on an assumption of profit maximisation. In practice,
producers can have many different objectives which distort our perception of how supply
behaves. In addition, market supply can depend on a wider range of factors, including
climate, action by the labour force and so on.

Demand

Demand is the flow of goods and services required by consumers over a given period of
time. Generally, the higher the level of price, the lower the level of demand. The demand
curve is therefore, usually represented as sloping downwards from left to right (Figure 2).
There are exceptions to this. Some goods and services attract lower demand when the
price falls, including many products where the price is a "badge" of exclusivity. These
products are said to display a "downward-sloping demand curve".
Determinants of demand

The determinants of demand are:

Price:
As mentioned above, the higher the price, the lower the level of quantity demanded.

Prices of other goods and services:

Some goods are substitutes for one another. If the price of one falls, the demand for the
other should also fall as it becomes less attractive to the consumer. Holidays in Greece
and Florida are good examples of this.

Some goods are complementary " the demand for them moves in tandem. If the price of
one of them falls, the quantity demanded of the other will rise. Examples of
complementary goods are portable CD players and batteries.

Income:
This is the most important determinant of demand. Generally, as income increases, the
quantity demanded should also increase. Again, there are exceptions to this. In poorer
countries, there is evidence that some staple goods, such as rice, will become less popular
even if their prices fall as incomes increase.

Tastes and preferences:

Consumer preferences have a major impact on the level of demand. These may be
influenced by a wide range of factors, all difficult or impossible to quantify precisely.

Changes in tastes and preferences can be permanent or temporary. Consider products

such as ten-pin bowling (hugely successful in the 1960s), cinema, fashion and childrens"
toys (witnessed by the resurgence of the yo-yo in 1998).

Table 1: Determinants of supply and demand

Determinants of supply Determinants of demand
Price Price
Prices of other goods and services Prices of other goods and services
Costs of factors of production Income
Technological innovation Tastes and preferences
Producers objectives

The determinants of supply and demand are summarised in Table 1 above.

Price equilibrium

Conventional micro-economic analysis states that the price of a good or service and the
output level will be determined at the intersection of the supply and demand curves
(Figure 3). This is called the equilibrium price.

Any price above the equilibrium will result in a situation where the quantity supplied
exceeds the quantity demanded. As they are unable to "clear" the market, producers may
reduce prices. Any price below the equilibrium will see the quantity demanded exceed
the quantity supplied, bidding the price upwards.
Prices should always tend to settle at equilibrium unless artificial constraints are imposed
by government, other outside agencies or by collusion between producers (cartels).

Using supply and demand curves

Your analysis of a situation posed by the examiner can be illustrated quite well by using
supply and demand curves. Some are more comfortable with these than others. In many
instances, a description in words is an adequate substitute.

Care must be taken to distinguish between a movement of the whole supply/demand

curve and a movement along a supply/demand curve. Remember the simple rule:

• if price changes, a movement will occur along the curve;

• if a determinant of supply or demand other than price changes, the whole curve
will move.

Limitations

In practice, of course, producers and consumers do not actually draw up or consult supply
and demand curves. Nor could they.

The theory is based on important assumptions, not least that in examining the relationship
between price and quantity demanded, all other factors are assumed to remain constant
(ceteris paribus).

The micro-economic model is simply a useful starting point for examining economic
behaviour from a theoretical viewpoint.

Intervention

Sometimes a maximum price is imposed for a good or service. The motive for this is
usually to protect the consumer.
During the Second World War, maximum prices were declared by the government for
essential foodstuffs and some other goods. The economic consequence is demonstrated in
Figure 4. As quantity demanded outstrips quantity supplied, several problems can
emerge. These were tackled during the war by a rationing system. Alternatives can be:

• first come, first served;

• the strongest consumers gain and the weakest consumers lose;
• emergence of a black market alongside the "official" one.

One does not have to rely upon the wartime example to illustrate the impact of a
maximum price. Exactly the same analysis can be applied to the ticket situation for the
football World Cup in France 1998.
Conversely, a minimum price may be imposed to protect producers. If this price exceeds
equilibrium, the situation demonstrated in Figure 5 emerges.

Under the minimum price regime, there is a situation of over-supply. Producers cannot
sell all they produce. This is vividly illustrated by the real-life problems which have
intermittently afflicted the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union.
Elasticity

The concept of elasticity is important in both micro-economics and macro-economics.

Elasticity of supply is the responsiveness of quantity supplied to a change in price. It can
be calculated by:

Elasticity of supply
= Change in quantity supplied / Change in price

Elasticity of demand is the responsiveness of quantity demanded to a change in price and

can be calculated by:

Elasticity of demand
= Change in quantity demanded / Change in price

If a small change in supply (or demand) brings about a larger than proportionate change
in quantity supplied (demanded), the supply (or demand) is said to be elastic.

The importance of elasticity is best demonstrated by practical examples:

Price discrimination:
Consider the example of two petrol filling stations, directly opposite one another on a
restricted access motorway junction. Petrol station A is on the slip road to the motorway
from which the motorist cannot turn off. Petrol station B is on the exit side which leads to
a town served by many similar businesses.

The demand for petrol will be more elastic at petrol station B than petrol station A.
Station B is competing with many others: station A on the other hand is the last chance
for motorists to fill up before entering the motorway. As long as the two enterprises are
physically separable, the responsiveness of quantity demanded to changes in price will be
radically different.

The Budget:
Each year, the Chancellor of the Exchequer delivers his Budget to Parliament. This sets
out, amongst other things, the planned income, expenditure and borrowing plans for at
least the coming year.

One recurrent feature of the Budget is the review of rates of indirect taxes such as VAT.
Indirect taxes are those which are imposed on expenditure. The "old favourites" for
changes in VAT are alcohol and tobacco. The reason for this is that the demand for these
products has always tended to be inelastic. A price increase through increased tax should
therefore, yield more revenue to the Exchequer. The change in price brings about a
relatively small change in quantity demanded.

The government cannot assume that such trends will continue unabated. For example, the
long-term trend against smoking (the proportion of the population smoking has reduced
by 50% in 30 years) and the cross-Channel traffic in "cheap booze" are both factors
which will have increased the elasticity of demand over time, with consequences for
projected revenues from VAT.

Other concepts of elasticity:

It is also worth having an understanding of two further measures of elasticity:

• cross-elasticity of demand is the responsiveness of quantity demanded of good A

to a change in price of good B;
• income elasticity of demand is the responsiveness of quantity demanded to a
change in income.

Application of supply and demand concepts in the examination

Paper 4 can pose questions which test either straight text book theoretical knowledge or
your ability to apply these concepts to given scenarios.

In the past there have been questions on the nature of supply and demand, their
determinants, movements of or along the curves, elasticity and so on. More practical
questions have been set in relation to price intervention (agriculture, OPEC, etc.),
practical applications of elasticity, as well as some of these concepts as they relate to the
theory of the firm (perfect competition, oligopoly, etc.,).

LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
To understand why its loss is important, you must first know what biodiversity is. The
generic definition is: the number of species in an environment and the number of
individuals in each species. To put it simply, it is the number of different species in one
area and the quantity of each of these species.

Newer definitions include genetic variation within a species and variations between types
of biological communities on the earth. Functional diversity is also now studied. This
is an analysis of the biological functions performed by a specific ecosystem. This is
useful in deter- mining the consequences of human impact on an area. However, this is
difficult to measure;
and it is highly possible that important functions of an ecosystem may be overlooked in
this measurement due to our ignorance of the processes involved (Thorne-Miller and
Catena 9).

The functioning of the biosphere (or our entire planet) is dependent on the combination of
all existing ecosystems. Our very existence depends on this process functioning
properly. Every organism has its niche in the environment. Once it is gone, it may not
be able to be replaced by any other organism. What does this mean for us as humans? A
whole host of things.

First, loss of diversity in an ecosystem can cause environmental changes. Loss of one
species may cause a chain reaction, resulting in a change to the ecosystem itself. As we
do not know what each specific organism contributes to its environment, we cannot
predict how the ecosystem will be affected. The whole ecosystem may be weakened by
this process.

Plants and animals produce defense mechanisms which are often chemicals used to either
repel predators or to aid in elimination of their competition. These chemicals are vitally
important to humans because many cures for human diseases have been found in these
compounds. If a species is lost due to our interference in its ecosystem, we also lose the
ability to study it for possible benefits to mankind.

Secondly, the loss of diversity gives us less choice as humans. This involves several
areas. If certain species are lost, they are no longer available to us either as food, as
enjoyment, or as resources for things we may not even know about yet. For example, if
we deplete all the yellowfin tuna in the ocean, we no longer have this species available
for our consumption. If we are divers or underwater explorers, we no longer can see this
fish in its own environment and receive pleasure from this act.

The fewer animals left, the fewer we can see when we interact with nature.

Other problems with loss of diversity are more subtle. When a species is depleted so that
there are only a few organisms left, the genetic diversity in the species becomes very
low. This lowers the survival rate of the species. If all the individuals left are weak, have
some form of abnormality, or are unable to survive in their environment, the species is
doomed to extinction.

Extinction is a natural process that has occurred for millions of years. The problem is
that the rate of extinction has increased dramatically in recent years due to our impact as
humans. The rate of change is perhaps as damaging as the effects of the changes. There
is no time for organisms to adapt to their constantly-changing environment.

One species may be necessary for the survival of another species. If an animal or plant is
the main or only food source for another, its extinction will cause a domino effect. Other
species will die out after the original one is lost.

The oceans of the world are much more stable than the land. Changes here usually take a
long time. The organisms which live here have adapted to meet this slow, gradual
change. They cannot tolerate drastic, abrupt changes.

Loss of diversity in an ecosystem can cause environmental

changes. Loss of one species may cause a chain reaction,
resulting in a change to the ecosystem itself. Every organism
has its niche in the environment. Once it is gone, it may not
ECOSYSTEM
be able to be replaced by any other organism. As we do not
DISRUPTION
know what each specific organism contributes to its
environment, we cannot predict how the ecosystem will be
affected. The whole ecosystem may be weakened by
this process.

There are certain species which are known as “keystone” KEYSTONE SPECIES
species. These species have unusually important roles in their
ecosystems. Fluctuation in
their population can cause dramatic effects on the entire
system. In kelp ecosystems such as those off the coast of
California there is a complex relationship between three
keystone species: the sea otter, the sea urchin,
and the kelp itself. If any one of these organisms declines
severely in population, the whole ecosystem is changed. The
otters keeps the urchin population in check. Without them, the
urchins would devour the whole kelp forest. The kelp
provides homes for many other organisms which would
suffer if it was destroyed. Yet, without sufficient sea urchins,
the sea otter population would decline. It is a complex web
which must be balanced
properly for the system to thrive (Thorne-Miller and Catena
24-25).

A second important consideration is that plants and animals

produce defense mechanisms. These are often chemicals used
to either repel predators or to aid in elimination of their
competition. These chemicals are vitally important to humans
MEDICINAL BENEFITS because many cures for human diseases have been found in
these compounds. If a species is lost due to our interference in
its ecosystem, we also lose the ability to study it for possible
benefits to mankind (see Terrestrial Ecosystems for more
details).

An aspect not given much thought is that the loss of

diversity gives us less choice as humans. If certain species
are lost, they are no longer available to us either as food, as
enjoyment, or as resources for things we may not even know
about yet. For example, if we deplete all the yellowfin tuna in
the ocean, we no longer have this species available for our LESS CHOICE
consumption. If we are divers or underwater explorers, we
no longer can see this fish in its own environment
and receive pleasure from this act. We also no longer have the
ability to study this species to see how it interacts with other
species in its ecosystem.

WHALING
A hundred years ago a whaling ship could capture 35-
40 whales in one three-year trip. Yet, in the 20th
century at the peak of indus-
trial whaling, the same amount of whales was
processed in two weeks (Cousteau 215). This has
caused the collapse of whale populations
worldwide. Some are very near extinction. The
International Whaling Commission has imposed
limits on whale hunting, and some species are
slowly recovering from our acts. However, as the
species count rises again, countries are perched
on the brink ready to lift the ban on whaling at the
first moment
that they possibly can. If this is done, our efforts will
have been in vain for it will take very few years for
us to be back in the same scenario where we found
ourselves earlier this century. With more
sophisticated technology like helicopters to track
pods and floating factories to process the animals,
the whales have little chance against our species.

Another way our terrestrial systems aid humans is that they

can be forecasters of the future. When an ecosystem is
disrupted and other species begin to disappear or to have
problems, we can heed the warning. A classic example is the
research done within the last few years on amphibians. There
ENVIRONMENTAL has been a major decline in the populations of frogs
INDICATORS throughout the world, and of those which do survive many are
deformed. It is believed that because their skin is the mode
through which they respire, they are very susceptible to
environ-
mental changes. It is in our best interest to discover what is
causing these problems before they seriously affect humans.
EXTINCTION: NATURAL VS. HUMAN-INDUCED

Extinction is a natural process that has occurred for millions of years so why does it
deserve so much attention now? The problem is that the rate of extinction has
increased dramatically in recent years due to our impact as humans. The rate of change
is perhaps as damaging as the effects of the changes. There is no time for organisms to
adapt to their constantly-changing environment. It is currently estimated that if current
environmental practices are not changed, we may lose 50% of all species globally (Myers
131).

Extinction on such a scale may be catastrophic. In former large extinctions in the

earth’s history, it has taken millions of years for the earth to recover. To put this in
perspective, this is many times longer than humans have actually been on the earth! The
main difference now is that, instead of having a mass extinction in one particular
environment, we are losing huge numbers of species in several key environments at the
same time. Not only are we depleting numerous animal and fish species, we are also
depleting large portions of our terrestrial plant species. With so many plant species
gone, there will be no resource base upon which to generate a recovery of animal species
– including humans (Myers 133). As we are also depleting nutrients in our soil due to
overuse,
what chance do the few remaining plant species have of sustaining life?

Refer to the Environmental Protection Agency website for details on the Endangered
Species Act and other environmental regulations.

Marine Causes of Diversity Pollution

Ecosystems Loss
 Why Should I Sources Whose Responsibility Is
Care? It?

Market environment
The market environment is a marketing term and refers to all of the forces outside of
marketing that affect marketing management’s ability to build and maintain successful
relationships with target customers. The market environment consists of both the macro
environment and the microenvironment.

The microenvironment refers to the forces that are close to the company and affect its
ability to serve its customers. It includes the company itself, its suppliers, marketing
intermediaries, customer markets, competitors, and publics.

The company aspect of microenvironment refers to the internal environment of the

company. This includes all departments, such as management, finance, research and
development, purchasing, operations and accounting. Each of these departments has an
impact on marketing decisions. For example, research and development have input as to
the features a product can perform and accounting approves the financial side of
marketing plans and budgets.

The suppliers of a company are also an important aspect of the microenvironment

because even the slightest delay in receiving supplies can result in customer
dissatisfaction. Marketing managers must watch supply availability and other trends
dealing with suppliers to ensure that product will be delivered to customers in the time
frame required in order to maintain a strong customer relationship.

Marketing intermediaries refers to resellers, physical distribution firms, marketing

services agencies, and financial intermediaries. These are the people that help the
company promote, sell, and distribute its products to final buyers. Resellers are those that
hold and sell the company’s product. They match the distribution to the customers and
include places such as Wal-Mart, Target, and Best Buy. Physical distribution firms are
places such as warehouses that store and transport the company’s product from its origin
to its destination. Marketing services agencies are companies that offer services such as
conducting marketing research, advertising, and consulting. Financial intermediaries are
institutions such as banks, credit companies and insurance companies.

Another aspect of microenvironment is the customers. There are different types of

customer markets including consumer markets, business markets, government markets,
international markets, and reseller markets. The consumer market is made up of
individuals who buy goods and services for their own personal use or use in their
household. Business markets include those that buy goods and services for use in
producing their own products to sell. This is different from the reseller market which
includes businesses that purchase goods to resell as is for a profit. These are the same
companies mentioned as market intermediaries. The government market consists of
government agencies that buy goods to produce public services or transfer goods to
others who need them. International markets include buyers in other countries and
includes customers from the previous categories.

Competitors are also a factor in the microenvironment and include companies with
similar offerings for goods and services. To remain competitive a company must consider
who their biggest competitors are while considering its own size and position in the
industry. The company should develop a strategic advantage over their competitors.

The final aspect of the microenvironment is publics, which is any group that has an
interest in or impact on the organization’s ability to meet its goals. For example, financial
publics can hinder a company’s ability to obtain funds affecting the level of credit a
company has. Media publics include newspapers and magazines that can publish articles
of interest regarding the company and editorials that may influence customers’ opinions.
Government publics can affect the company by passing legislation and laws that put
restrictions on the company’s actions. Citizen-action publics include environmental
groups and minority groups and can question the actions of a company and put them in
the public spotlight. Local publics are neighborhood and community organizations and
will also question a company’s impact on the local area and the level of responsibility of
their actions. The general public can greatly affect the company as any change in their
attitude, whether positive or negative, can cause sales to go up or down because the
general public is often the company’s customer base. And finally, the internal publics
include all those who are employed within the company and deal with the organization
and construction of the company’s product.

The macro environment refers to all forces that are part of the larger society and affect
the microenvironment. It includes concepts such as demography, economy, natural
forces, technology, politics, and culture.

Demography refers to studying human populations in terms of size, density, location, age,
gender, race, and occupation. This is a very important factor to study for marketers and
helps to divide the population into market segments and target markets. An example of
demography is classifying groups of people according to the year they were born. These
classifications can be referred to as baby boomers, who are born between 1946 and 1964,
generation X, who are born between 1965 and 1976, and generation Y, who are born
between 1977 and 1994. Each classification has different characteristics and causes they
find important. This can be beneficial to a marketer as they can decide who their product
would benefit most and tailor their marketing plan to attract that segment. Demography
covers many aspects that are important to marketers including family dynamics,
geographic shifts, work force changes, and levels of diversity in any given area.
Another aspect of the macro environment is the economic environment. This refers to the
purchasing power of potential customers and the ways in which people spend their
money. Within this area are two different economies, subsistence and industrialized.
Subsistence economies are based more in agriculture and consume their own industrial
output. Industrial economies have markets that are diverse and carry many different types
of goods. Each is important to the marketer because each has a highly different spending
pattern as well as different distribution of wealth.

The natural environment is another important factor of the macro environment. This
includes the natural resources that a company uses as inputs and affects their marketing
activities. The concern in this area is the increased pollution, shortages of raw materials
and increased governmental intervention. As raw materials become increasingly scarcer,
the ability to create a company’s product gets much harder. Also, pollution can go as far
as negatively affecting a company’s reputation if they are known for damaging the
environment. The last concern, government intervention can make it increasingly harder
for a company to fulfill their goals as requirements get more stringent.

The technological environment is perhaps one of the fastest changing factors in the macro
environment. This includes all developments from antibiotics and surgery to nuclear
missiles and chemical weapons to automobiles and credit cards. As these markets
develop it can create new markets and new uses for products. It also requires a company
to stay ahead of others and update their own technology as it becomes outdated. They
must stay informed of trends so they can be part of the next big thing, rather than
becoming outdated and suffering the consequences financially.

The political environment includes all laws, government agencies, and groups that
influence or limit other organizations and individuals within a society. It is important for
marketers to be aware of these restrictions as they can be complex. Some products are
regulated by both state and federal laws. There are even restrictions for some products as
to who the target market may be, for example, cigarettes should not be marketed to
younger children. There are also many restrictions on subliminal messages and
monopolies. As laws and regulations change often, this is a very important aspect for a
marketer to monitor.

The final aspect of the macro environment is the cultural environment, which consists of
institutions and basic values and beliefs of a group of people. The values can also be
further categorized into core beliefs, which passed on from generation to generation and
very difficult to change, and secondary beliefs, which tend to be easier to influence. As a
marketer, it is important to know the difference between the two and to focus your
marketing campaign to reflect the values of a target audience.

When dealing with the marketing environment it is important for a company to become
proactive. By doing so, they can create the kind of environment that they will prosper in
and can become more efficient by marketing in areas with the greatest customer potential.
It is important to place equal emphasis on both the macro and microenvironment and to
react accordingly to changes within them.
Massive Extinctions From Human Activity
As well as the need for biodiversity for continued ecosystem survival (as explained in the
Who Cares? section on this web site), from a human perspective, from common drugs to
possible cures for cancers, most of our medicine come from plants, many of which are
now endangered.

However, it has long been feared that human activity is causing massive extinctions. The
previous link, to a report from Environment New Service (August 2, 1999) says that “The
current extinction rate is now approaching 1,000 times the background rate and may
climb to 10,000 times the background rate during the next century, if present trends
continue. At this rate, one-third to two-thirds of all species of plants, animals, and other
organisms would be lost during the second half of the next century, a loss that would
easily equal those of past extinctions.” (Emphasis added)

A huge report known as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, started in 2000, was
released in March 2005. Amongst many warnings for humankind, it noted that there has
been (as summarized from the BBC) a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the
diversity of life on Earth, with some 10-30% of the mammal, bird and amphibian species
currently threatened with extinction, all due to human actions. (See this site’s section on
sustainable development for more on that assessment.)

A report from the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in 2006 confirmed concerns from
the previous year, noting that

Already resources are depleting, with the report showing that vertebrate species
populations have declined by about one-third in the 33 years from 1970 to 2003. At the
same time, humanity’s Ecological Footprint—the demand people place upon the natural
world—has increased to the point where the Earth is unable to keep up in the struggle to
regenerate.

— Human footprint too big for nature, WWF, October 24, 2006 (Emphasis added)

Research of long term trends in the fossil record suggests that natural speed limits
constrain how quickly biodiversity can rebound after waves of extinction. Hence, the
rapid extinction rates mean that it could take a long time for nature to recover.

Consider the following observations and conclusions from established experts and
institutions summarized by Jaan Suurkula, M.D. and chairman of Physicians and
Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and Technology (PSRAST), noting the
impact that global warming will have on ecosystems and biodiversity:

The world environmental situation is likely to be further aggravated by the increasingly

rapid, large scale global extinction of species. It occurred in the 20th century at a rate that
was a thousand times higher than the average rate during the preceding 65 million
years. This is likely to destabilize various ecosystems including agricultural systems.
…In a slow extinction, various balancing mechanisms can develop. Noone knows what
will be the result of this extremely rapid extinction rate. What is known, for sure, is that
the world ecological system has been kept in balance through a very complex and
multifacetted interaction between a huge number of species. This rapid extinction is
therefore likely to precitate collapses of ecolosystems at a global scale. This is predicted
to create large-scale agricultural problems, threatening food supplies to hundreds of
millions of people. This ecological prediction does not take into consideration the effects
of global warming which will further aggravate the situation.

Industrialized fishing has contributed importantly to mass extinction due to repeatedly

failed attempts at limiting the fishing.

A new global study concludes that 90 percent of all large fishes have disappeared
from the world’s oceans in the past half century, the devastating result of industrial
fishing. The study, which took 10 years to complete and was published in the
international journal Nature, paints a grim picture of the Earth’s current populations of
such species as sharks, swordfish, tuna and marlin.

…The loss of predatory fishes is likely to cause multiple complex imbalances in marine
ecology.

Another cause for extensive fish extinction is the destruction of coral reefs. This is
caused by a combination of causes, including warming of oceans, damage from fishing
tools and a harmful infection of coral organisms promoted by ocean pollution. It will
take hundreds of thousands of years to restore what is now being destroyed in a few
decades.

…According to the most comprehensive study done so far in this field, over a million
species will be lost in the coming 50 years. The most important cause was found to be
climate change.

…NOTE: The above presentation encompasses only the most important and burning
global environmental problems. There are several additional ones, especially in the field
of chemical pollution that contribute to harm the environment or upset the ecological
balance.

— Jaan Suurkula, World-wide cooperation required to prevent global crisis; Part one—
the problem, Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and
Technology, February 6, 2004 [Emphasis is original]

Additionally, as reported by UC Berkeley, using DNA comparisons, scientists have

discovered what they have termed as an “evolutionary concept called parallelism, a
situation where two organisms independently come up with the same adaptation to a
particular environment.” This has an additional ramification when it comes to protecting
biodiversity and endangered species. This is because in the past what we may have
considered to be one species could actually be many. But, as pointed out by scientists, by
putting them all in one group, it under-represents biodiversity, and these different
evolutionarily species would not up getting the protection otherwise needed.

Supply-side economics
Supply-side economics is a school of macroeconomic thought that argues that economic
growth can be most effectively created using incentives for people to produce (supply)
goods and services, such as adjusting income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by
allowing greater flexibility by reducing regulation. Consumers will then benefit from a
greater supply of goods and services at lower prices.

The term supply-side economics was coined by journalist Jude Wanniski in 1975, and
popularized the ideas of economists Robert Mundell and Arthur Laffer. Today, supply-
side economics is often conflated with the politically rhetorical term "trickle-down
economics."[1]

The typical policy recommendation of supply-side economics is to achieve the proper

level of marginal tax rates, which, by virtue of what most supply-side economists believe
to be the high rate of taxes in general, equates to the cutting of taxes.[2] Maximum benefits
are achieved by optimizing the marginal tax rates of those with high incomes and capital
investments who are deemed most likely to increase supply and thus spur growth.
Keynesian macroeconomics, by contrast, contends that tax cuts should be used to
increase demand, not supply, and thus should be targeted at cash-strapped, lower-income
earners, who are more likely to spend additional income.

Many early proponents argued that the size of the economic growth would be significant
enough that the increased government revenue from a faster growing economy would be
sufficient to compensate completely for the short-term costs of a tax cut, and that tax cuts
could, in fact, cause overall revenue to increase.[6]

Historical origins
Supply-side economics developed during the 1970s in response to the Keynesian
dominance of economic policy, and in particular the failure of demand management to
stabilize Western economies during the stagflation of the 1970s, in the wake of the oil
crisis in 1973.[7] It drew on a range of non-Keynesian economic thought, particularly
Austrian school thinking on entrepreneurship and new classical macroeconomics. The
intellectual roots of supply-side economics have also been traced back to various early
economic thinkers such as Ibn Khaldun, Jonathan Swift, David Hume, Adam Smith and
Alexander Hamilton.[8]

As in classical economics, supply-side economics proposed that production or supply is

the key to economic prosperity and that consumption or demand is merely a secondary
consequence. Early on this idea had been summarized in Say's Law of economics, which
states: "A product is no sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for
other products to the full extent of its own value." John Maynard Keynes, the founder of
Keynesianism, summarized Say's Law as "supply creates its own demand." He turned
Say's Law on its head in the 1930s by declaring that demand creates its own supply. [9]
However, Say's Law does not state that production creates a demand for the product
itself, but rather a demand for "other products to the full extent of its own value." A better
formulation of the law is that the supply of one good constitutes demand for one or more
other goods.[10]

In 1978 Jude Wanniski published The Way the World Works in which he laid out the
central thesis of supply-side economics and detailed the failure of high tax-rate
progressive income tax systems and U.S. monetary policy under Nixon in the 1970s.
Wanniski advocated lower tax rates and a return to some kind of gold standard, similar to
the 1944-1971 Bretton Woods System that Nixon abandoned.

In 1983, economist Victor Canto, a disciple of Arthur Laffer, published The Foundations
of Supply-Side Economics. This theory focuses on the effects of marginal tax rates on the
incentive to work and save, which affect the growth of the "supply side" or what
Keynesians call potential output. While the latter focus on changes in the rate of supply-
side growth in the long run, the "new" supply-siders often promised short-term results.

The supply-siders were influenced strongly by the idea of the Laffer curve, which states
that tax rates and tax revenues were distinct -- that tax rates too high or too low will not
maximize tax revenues. Supply-siders felt that in a high tax rate environment, lowering
taxes to the right level can raise revenue by causing faster economic growth. They
pointed to the tax cuts of the Kennedy administration and the high rates of the Hoover
and Nixon administrations in justification.[citation needed]

This led the supply-siders to advocate large reductions in marginal income and capital
gains tax rates to encourage allocation of assets to investment, which would produce
more supply. Jude Wanniski and many others advocate a zero capital gains rate.[11][not in
citation given]
The increased aggregate supply would result in increased aggregate demand,
hence the term "Supply-Side Economics".

Furthermore, in response to inflation, supply-siders called for indexed marginal income

tax rates, as monetary inflation had pushed wage earners into higher marginal income tax
brackets that remained static; that is, as wages increased to maintain purchasing power
with prices, income tax brackets were not adjusted accordingly and thus wage earners
were pushed into higher income tax brackets than tax policy had intended. [7]

Supply-side economics has been criticized as essentially politically conservative. Supply-

side advocates claim that they are not following an ideology, but are reinstating classical
economics. Yet, supply-siders such as Jude Wanniski have argued for lower tax rates to
increase tax revenues, and that redistribution of income through taxation was essential to
the health of the polity -- a fact which is anathema to traditional conservatives.
Some economists see similarities between supply-side proposals and Keynesian
economics. If the result of changes to the tax structure is a fiscal deficit then the 'supply-
side' policy is effectively stimulating demand through the Keynesian multiplier effect.
Supply-side proponents would point out, in response, that the level of taxation and
spending is important for economic incentives, not just the size of the deficit.

The Reagan administration justified such changes in socioeconomic terms with the
argument that "a rising tide lifts all boats".

Marx and Smith

Both supply-siders and their opponents have been keen to claim the mantles of thinkers
as diverse as Karl Marx and Adam Smith. Jude Wanniski has claimed both as supply-side
thinkers due to their advocacy of a gold monetary standard and more specifically their
focus on the agents of production in an economy. Barton Biggs, chief investment
strategist of Morgan Stanley, described Wanniski's book about supply-side economics,
The Way the World Works, as the "most important" economic book published since
Marx's writings. [12]

Supply-side vs. Monetarism

Supply-side supporters disagreed with Chicago school monetarist Milton Friedman by

arguing that cutting tax rates alone would be sufficient to cause GDP to grow, lift tax
revenues and balance the budget. Friedman, however, retained a more conventional
monetarist view, believing that while tax cuts were on the whole desirable, money supply
was the crucial variable.

Fiscal policy theory

Supply-side economics holds that increased taxation steadily reduces economic trade
between economic participants within a nation and that it discourages investment. Taxes
act as a type of trade barrier or tariff that causes economic participants to revert to less
efficient means of satisfying their needs. As such, higher taxation lead to lower levels of
specialization and lower economic efficiency. The idea is said to be illustrated by the
Laffer curve. (Case & Fair, 1999: 780, 781).

Crucial to the operation of supply-side theory is the expansion of free trade and free
movement of capital. It is argued that free capital movement, in addition to the classical
reasoning of comparative advantage, frequently allows an economic expansion. Lowering
tax barriers to trade provides to the domestic economy all the advantages that the
international economy gets from lower tariff barriers.

Supply-side economists have less to say on the effects of deficits, and sometimes cite
Robert Barro’s work that states that rational economic actors will buy bonds in sufficient
quantities to reduce long term interest rates.[2] Critics argue that standard exchange rate
theory would predict, instead, a devaluation of the currency of the nation running the high
budget deficit, and eventual "crowding out" of private investment.

According to Mundell, "Fiscal discipline is a learned behavior." To put it another way,

eventually the unfavourable effects of running persistent budget deficits will force
governments to reduce spending in line with their levels of revenue. This view is also
promoted by Victor Canto.

The central issue at stake is the point of diminishing returns on liquidity in the investment
sector: Is there a point where additional money is "pushing on a string"? To the supply-
side economist, reallocation away from consumption to private investment, and most
especially from public investment to private investment, will always yield superior
economic results. In standard monetarist and Keynesian theory, however, there will be a
point where increases in asset prices will produce no new supply, that is where
investment demand will outrun potential investment supply, and produce instead, assets
inflation, or in common terms a bubble. The existence of this point, and where it is
should it exist, is the essential question of the efficacy of supply-side economics.

Monetary policy theory

Some supply-siders advocate that monetary policy should be based on a price rule. The
aim of monetary policy should be to target a specific value of money irrespective of the
quantity of money that must be created or withdrawn by the central bank to achieve this
target. This contrasts with monetarism's focus on the quantity of money, and Keynesian
theory's emphasis on real aggregate demand. The important difference is that to a
monetarist the quantity of money, specifically represented by the money supply is the
crucial determining variable for the relationship between the supply and demand for
money, while to a Keynesian adequate demand to support the available money supply is
important. Keynes famously remarked that "money doesn't matter".

This is an area where supply-side theory has been particularly influential. Under
macroeconomic theory, the general level of price was based on the strict increase in price
of a basket of goods. Under supply-side theory, the rate of inflation should be based on
the substitutions that individuals make in the market place, and should take into account
the improved quality of goods. In the late 1980s and through the 1990s, under Presidents
of both American political parties, shifts were made in the calculation of the broadly
followed measure of inflation the "Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers", or CPI-
W, which reflected supply-side ideas on substitution. The argument for factoring in goods
quality was not accepted, which has led supply-side economists to claim that the real CPI
is actually between 0.5% and 1% lower than the stated rate.

This area represents one of the points of contention between conservative economic
theorists who argue for a quantity of money theory of inflation, including Austrian
economics, many strict gold standard economists and traditional monetarists, and supply-
side theorists. According to the increases in money supply during the 1990s, the real rate
of inflation must be higher than is currently stated. These economists argue that the cost
of housing is understated in the CPI-W, and that the inflation rate should be between
0.5% and 1% higher. It is for this reason that many central bankers, investment analysts
and economists follow the GDP deflator which measures the total output of the society
and the prices paid for all goods, not merely consumer goods.

Some supply-siders view gold as the best unit of account with which to measure the price
of fiat money, which is defined as a money supply not directly limited by specie or hard
assets. Hence the purest supply-siders are in general advocates of a gold standard.
However the reverse is not true; many gold standard advocates are harsh critics of
supply-side economics.

Supply-side economists assert that the value of money is purely dictated by the supply
and demand for money. In fiat money system the government has a legislated monopoly
on the supply of base money. Hence it has some control over the value of money. Any
decline in the value of money (or appreciation) is then viewed by some as the result of
errant central bank policy.

Effect on Tax revenues

Many early proponents argued that the size of the economic growth would be significant
enough that the increased government revenue from a faster growing economy would be
sufficient to compensate completely for the short-term costs of a tax cut, and that tax cuts
could, in fact, cause overall revenue to increase.[13] Some hold this was borne out during
the 1980s when, advocates of supply-side economics (so-called “supply-siders") claim,
tax cuts ultimately led to an overall increase in governmental revenue due to stronger
economic growth. Other economists, however, dispute this assertion.[14][15] Some
contemporary economists do not consider supply-side economics a tenable economic
theory, with Alan Blinder calling it an "ill-fated" and perhaps "silly" school on the pages
of a 2006 textbook. [4] Greg Mankiw, former chairman of President George W. Bush's
Council of Economic Advisors, offered similarly sharp criticism of the school in the early
editions of his introductory economics textbook.[16] In a 1992 article for the Harvard
International Review, James Tobin wrote, "[The] idea that tax cuts would actually
increase revenues turned out to deserve the ridicule…"[17] While few modern economists
claim that tax cuts will completely pay for themselves, some empirical and theoretical
research suggests that tax cuts do help to pay for themselves through increased economic
growth, though the end result, even conservative economists contend, will be a
significant reduction in revenues.[3] The Reagan administration was the first to implement
supply-side policies and call them that. Some maintain that they failed to deliver the

promised benefits.

Pollution from agriculture

What is Agricultural pollution? Milk is therefore one of the worst pollutants to
that could enter the river system with a
A wide range of contaminants can reach the riverbiological oxygen demand of 140,000 mg/litre.
either via groundwater or through drainage ditches,
including artificial fertilizer residues, insecticides,
herbicides, pesticides and farmyard waste, all of
which are potentially very harmful. Accidental milk
spillage from dairies is a serious contaminant.

Undiluted animal manure (slurry) is one hundred times more concentrated than domestic sewage,
and can carry a parasite, Cryptosporidium, which is difficult to detect. Silage liquor (from
fermented wet grass) is even stronger than slurry, with a low pH and very high BOD (Biological
Oxygen Demand). With a low pH, silage liquor can be highly corrosive; it can attack synthetic
materials, causing damage to storage equipment, and leading to accidental spillage.

Milk spillage, silage liquor, cattle and pig slurry; these are all examples of point source pollution.
Diffuse source pollution from agricultural fertilizers is more difficult to trace, monitor and
control. High nitrate concentrations are found in groundwater and may reach 50mg/litre (the EU
Directive limit). In ditches and river courses, nutrient pollution from fertilizers causes
eutrophication. This is worse in winter, after autumn ploughing has released a surge of nitrates;
winter rainfall is heavier increasing runoff and leaching, and there is lower plant uptake.
Phytoplankton and algae thrive in the nutrient-rich water. Normally, blue-green algae are very
important in the river ecosystem, photosynthesising sunlight energy, and liberating oxygen into the
water. In large numbers, however, algae can become excessive, discolouring the water, giving an
unpleasant smell and robbing the water of valuable oxygen as bacteria work overtime feeding on
dead algae remains. Blue-green algae can also produce toxins, which kill wildlife, cause skin rashes,
and cause pains and stomach upsets.

Eutrophication is thus depriving the river of oxygen (called "oxygen debt"). As algae dominate and
turn the water green, the growth of other water plants is suppressed; these die first, disrupting
the food chain. Death of invertebrates and fish follow on, and their dead remains in turn lead to
excess bacterial activity during decomposition, reducing oxygen levels still further. Water with
high BOD figures are badly polluted, lower figures are better.

Consider the following BOD values of typical pollutants :

Silage liquor: up to 80,000 mg/litre Vegetable washings 500-3000 mg/litre

Cattle slurry: up to 20,000 mg/litre Liquid sewage sludge: 20,000 mg/litre
Pig slurry: up to 30,000 mg/litre Domestic sewage: 300-400 mg/litre
Milk: 140,000 mg/litre Treated sewage: 20-60 mg/litre
Where is there arable farmland in the Great Stour Valley?

Intensive cereal and field vegetable cropping occurs on the Great Stour valley sides, using the
more fertile and better-drained loam soils of the Chalk and river terraces.

Grazing marshes occur on the wetter clay and peat soils of

the floodplain

How does arable agricultural pollution affect the river on a local scale?

There are high concentrations of nitrates in the local groundwater, especially to the north-east of
Canterbury (in the Thanet area). This is a Nitrate Vulnerable Zone (NVZ), where pollution levels
exceed 50 mg/litre. The EU Drinking Water Directive set this limit for safe nitrate levels in 1980.
In 1991, the EU issued another Nitrate Directive which required countries to identify NVZs where
excessive nitrate pollution came from agricultural sources. Thanet is one of 68 NVZs in the UK.
Locally, farming intensity is not as high as in Thanet, but eutrophication is bad in some of the
marsh dykes (Stour Marshes).

Excessive demand for water (farmers are licensed by the Environment Agency to abstract water
directly from the river for spray irrigation) can result in low flows, reducing the dilution capacity
of the river; this is worse in summer, and particularly in drought years. This is known as a dilution
effect, i.e. concentration increases as flow decreases. In wet winters however, prolonged and
heavy rainfall may result in organic pollution incidents, with increased runoff from fertilized fields
and accidental overflow from slurry pits. This is known as a pumping effect, i.e. concentration
increases as flow increases, flushing chemicals off the fields and farmyards. These two responses
seem to work in opposite directions, making the evaluation of diffuse pollution quite difficult.
How can we try to prevent agricultural pollution?

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries - MAFF (now called The Ministry of
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs -MEFRA) produced in 1991 a "Code of Good
Agricultural Practice" for farmers giving detailed advice on the treating, storing
and applying of animal livestock waste, the disposal of dirty water, fertilizers, fuel
oil, sheep dip, pesticides, nitrates, disposal of animal carcasses, etc. With EA advice
also, local farmers all have to produce a Farm Waste Management Plan to comply
with pollution control regulations. Some examples of good practice are:

• reducing ploughing in the autumn

• delaying the ploughing in of crop residues
• reducing the amount of fertilizers, manure and sewage sludge applied
• sowing autumn crops early
• sowing cover crops in winter to avoid bare ground
• careful management of disposal of farm waste
• Set-aside regulations will also have the beneficial effect of reducing intensity of farming in
the local area, and thus lowering nitrate levels.

What about orchards?

Fruit farming locally forms part

of the North Kent Fruit Belt.
Orchards, small fruits and hops
are all grown in this area, taking
advantage of the lighter sandy
soils of the Tertiary rocks,
sandwiched between the
heavier clay soils to the north
and the Chalk loams to the
south, (see geology.)
Are there pollution threats from orchards?
The potential threat to water pollution comes from the intensive use of pesticides. 'Pesticide' is a
general term which includes herbicides, fungicides and insecticides. They are widely used for weed
control in agriculture, but also on roadsides and railway embankments. Spray drift from pesticide
application can enter water courses if orchards are located too close to the river. The main threat
however comes, not from spraying, but from poor storage and accidental spillage, as a result of
which pesticides may get into, and contaminate, the groundwater.

Pesticides are persistent in the food chain, since the chemicals involved are non-degradable; they
are said to 'bioaccumulate' in the food chain. Organochlorides are found to cause changes in the
sexual and reproductive characteristics of wildlife. Top carnivores (in the river, fish) are especially
affected. Since pesticides are found in very low concentrations in water, their detection and
measurement is complex and expensive. The maximum admissible concentration (MAC) is extremely
small - 100 ng/litre or 1 part in 10,000,000 for any one individual substance, but 500 ng/litre for
total pesticide residues.

How does orchard pollution affect the river on a local scale?

Spray application has never been a problem locally. Triazines and Drins are representative groups
of pesticide compounds, minute traces of which have been detected in the Great Stour.

The following traces of pesticides were recorded in the river at

Bretts Bailey Bridge (GR 187602) on June 4th 1999:

Endosulphan 2.2
Malathion 15.0
HCH 7.4It can be seen that this is well within the EU Directive of 500 ng/l
DDT 2.3and thus poses no threat to water supplies. There were no
Drins 2.5recorded failures in this category of water pollution in the period
Triazines 48.1 1995-1997. It is interesting to note that certain banned
Tributyltin 4.0substances are still detectable. The Water Act (1989) lists these
Fenitrothion 8.0 pesticides which are now banned in the UK including DDT, Dieldrin,
Fenitrothion, Malathion, Endosulphan, etc. Their presence in the
river is testimony to their persistence, clearly pre-dating the 1989
TOTAL 89.5 ng/l ban.

How can we try to prevent orchard pollution?

Local farmers follow the MAFF "Code of Good Agricultural Practice" and are required to produce a
"Farm Waste Management Plan" for the Environment Agency. See arable section on prevention of
pollution for more details. Correct spraying techniques have to be observed, under safe weather
conditions.

The inevitable escape of transgenic pollen from cultivated fields will lead to the
emergence of transgenic crop-wild plant hybrids in natural patches of wild plants. The
fate of these hybrids and that of the transgene depend on their ability to compete with
their wild relatives. Here we study ecological factors that may enhance the fitness of
genetically modified hybrids relative to wild plants for a Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)
transgene conferring resistance to insects. Mixed stands of wild plants and first-
generation hybrids were grown under different conditions of herbivore pressure and
density, with Bt oilseed rape (Brassica napes) as the crop and B. rapa as the wild
recipient. Biomass and fitness components were measured from plant germination to the
germination of their offspring. The frequency of transgenic seedlings in the offspring
generation was estimated using the green fluorescent protein marker. The biomass of F1
Bt-transgenic hybrids relative to that of wild-type plants was found to be sensitive to both
plant density and herbivore pressure, but herbivore pressure appeared as the major factor
enhancing their relative fitnesses. In the absence of herbivore pressure, Bt hybrids
produced 6.2-fold fewer seeds than their wild neighbors, and Bt plant frequency fell from
50% to 16% within a single generation. Under high herbivore pressure, Bt hybrids
produced 1.4-fold more seeds, and Bt plant frequency was 42% in the offspring
generation. We conclude that high-density patches of highly damaged wild plants are the
most vulnerable to Bt-transgene invasion. They should be monitored early to detect
potential transgene spread.

Prevention methods
Technical solutions

In the United States, many coal-burning power plants use Flue gas desulfurization (FGD)
to remove sulfur-containing gases from their stack gases. An example of FGD is the wet
scrubber which is commonly used in the U.S. and many other countries. A wet scrubber
is basically a reaction tower equipped with a fan that extracts hot smoke stack gases from
a power plant into the tower. Lime or limestone in slurry form is also injected into the
tower to mix with the stack gases and combine with the sulfur dioxide present. The
calcium carbonate of the limestone produces pH-neutral calcium sulfate that is physically
removed from the scrubber. That is, the scrubber turns sulfur pollution into industrial
sulfates.

In some areas the sulfates are sold to chemical companies as gypsum when the purity of
calcium sulfate is high. In others, they are placed in landfill. However, the effects of acid
rain can last for generations, as the effects of pH level change can stimulate the continued
leaching of undesirable chemicals into otherwise pristine water sources, killing off
vulnerable insect and fish species and blocking efforts to restore native life.

Automobile emissions control reduces emissions of nitrogen oxides from motor vehicles.

International treaties

A number of international treaties on the long range transport of atmospheric pollutants

have been agreed e.g. Sulphur Emissions Reduction Protocol under the Convention on
Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Emissions trading

In this regulatory scheme, every current polluting facility is given or may purchase on an
open market an emissions allowance for each unit of a designated pollutant it emits.
Operators can then install pollution control equipment, and sell portions of their
emissions allowances they no longer need for their own operations, thereby recovering
some of the capital cost of their investment in such equipment. The intention is to give
operators economic incentives to install pollution controls.

The first emissions trading market was established in the United States by enactment of
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. The overall goal of the Acid Rain Program
established by the Act is to achieve significant environmental and public health benefits
through reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), the
primary causes of acid rain. To achieve this goal at the lowest cost to society, the
program employs both regulatory and market based approaches for controlling air
pollution.