Study on:

nd
2 FAST TRACK Progres
PERFORMANCE & OPPORTUNITY OF INDONESIA ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT
2009 – 2018
plus
(Featuring with Coal √ Geothermal Prospect in Indonesia)
Januari 2010

Until now the condition of electric energy procurement in some sub-system of national
electricity is still deficit, during 2008, turn off often occurred in all coverage of PLN services,
including in the Java Bali interconnection system, which was reported in normal condition.

It is predicted that without additional power, in 2008, Java Bali Interconnection System
would be hit by the crisis when the power reserve was only about 27%. If it is only relying on the
additional power from the on-going and committed project, in 2010P, the power reserve is
predicted about 14%. While the proper minimum power reserve of the electricity system
reliability is about 30% up to 40%. Likewise, the Sumatera Interconnection System, without
additional power from the new generator, in 2008, the power reserve would only about 14%.

The crisis condition would still continue if the 44 IPP projects that has working contract,
could not be realized, such as 24 partnership project lots (1,100 MW), 16 electricity crisis tackling
projects lots (776 MW), and 4 Infrastructure Summit project lots (RUPTL 2006-2015/changes).

Since the beginning of the 90's, the government and PLN have opened opportunities for
the private sectors to participate in the development of national electricity infrastructure. But the
ratio of success for some IPP projects, either for Generation I (1992-1998 periods) or for
Generation II (2005-2008 period) was still considered low.

PT PLN (Persero) as the executor and the coordinator of Acceleration Program of Coal
Powered Steam Electric Generator (PLTU) 10,000 MW (Crash Program), has a purpose of
fulfilling the high growth of electric energy needs, energy diversification that impacted on the
saving of production prime cost, and as a replacement of retired and unproductive electric
generators. All coal PLTU in the project packages has total capacity of 9,475 MW, covering 40
project locations all over Indonesia, consisted of 10 locations in Java with capacity of 7,460 MW,
and 30 locations outside Java with capacity of 2,513 MW.

The level of electric energy in the next decade is averagely 9.7% (RUPTL 2009-2018), while
the additional power from some crash program generators are expected to be entirely absorbed
by the end of 2011.

To secure the electric energy supply until 2018, there should be additional power about
57,500 MW or 5,750 MW per year. In 2009, it is planned some new generator projects, 35.3 GW

1
would be build by PLN and the other 22.2 GW would be given to the IPP. During the next ten
years, IPP is directed to be more beneficial when the contribution reaches 40% of the total
national electric energy supply.

It seems that during the next ten years (2009-2018), there is a business opportunity and
investment in electricity in Indonesia that would reach a total value of US$ 83.69 billion, covering
the generator needs of US$56.57 billion, transmission US$ 14.10 billion, and distribution US$
12.38 billion.

Towards the end of 2008, the government has determined phase II electricity project
program of 10,000 MW with total capacity of 10,126 MW, which
some of the generator with capacity of 5,394 MW would be developed by PLN, and the other
4,732 MW by the Independent Power Producer (IPP).

By discussing the national electricity issues, including the progress of 10,000 MW project
phase I and II, and the other electricity infrastructure development projects, enriched with the
prospect of coal and geothermal resources in Indonesia, as well as the acceleration of the
implementation of the energy diversification policy, made this study book very useful for the
electricity business players, including PLN, and other involved corporations, as well as domestic
and international financing institutions.

This study is prepared as thick as 400 pages, we offered at Rp 5,500,000 (Five million five
hundred thousand Rupiah) per copy for the Indonesian version, or at US$ 800 (Eight hundred
US Dollar) per copy for the English version. The interested party could directly contact PT
Media Data Riset, Jakarta, through telephone number (021) 809 6071 or facsimile (021) 809 6071.
Delivery cost will be added for order from outside of Jakarta.

Thank you for your kind attention and participation.

Jakarta, July 2009

PT Media Data Riset

Drh. H. Daddy Kusdriana, M.Si

President Director

2
 LIST OF CONTENT
nd
2 FAST TRACK Progres
PERFORMANCE & OPPORTUNITY OF INDONESIA ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT
2009 – 2018
plus
(Featuring with Coal √ Geothermal Prospect in Indonesia)
January 2010
I. INTRODUCTION
II. PERFORMANCE OF NATIONAL
ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
IV. NATIONAL ELECTRICITY PERFORMANCE
2.1. Portrait of National Electricity System 1966-
2008
2.1.1. RE per Province Status December 2008
2.1.2. Development of National Electricity
Infrastructure 2008
2.2. Chain Link of National Electric Energy
Supply
2.3. Energy Management and National Electricity
Crisis
2.3.1. Role of ESDM in National
Development
2.3.2. Ground Rule and Policy of Energy in
Indonesia
2.3.3. General Description of Energy in
Indonesia
2.3.4. Coal Resource and Terminal
2.3.5. Potency of National Geothermal
2.3.6. Energy Needs of Indonesia
III. NATIONAL ELECTRICITY
INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1. Installed Capacities of National Generator
2007-2008
3.1.1. Power Capacity based on the
Generator (PLN) 2003-2008
3.1.2. Capable Power based on the
Generator (PLN) 1999-2007
3.1.3. Total Unit of Generator (PLN) 1999-
2007
3.1.4. Load Factor, Capacity, and Electric
Energy Demand Factor 1999-2007
3.1.5. Primary Energy Utilization for
Generator 1999-2007
3.2. Composition of Generator based on Primary
Energy 2007-2008
3.3. Target of Primary Energy Utilization for
Generator 2007-2008
4.1. Production & Consumption of National
Electricity Energy 2002-2007
4.1.1. Production of Electric Energy based on
Generator 2002-2007
4.1.2. Production and Purchase of Electric
Energy 2003-2007
4.1.3. Growth and Composition of Electric
Energy Sales 2003-2008
4.1.4. National Electric Consumption based
on Tariff Group 1999-2007
4.2. Electrification Ratio per Province 1980-2007
4.3. Electrified Village Ratio per Province 2006-
2007
4.3.1. Rural Electric Program (Financing
Source APBN)
4.3.2. Rural Electric Program Plan 2009
(Financing Source APBN)
V. NATIONAL ELECTRIC POWER POLICY
5.1. Tariff Policy
5.2. Primary Energy Utilization Policy
5.3. Rural and Social Electric Treatment
5.4. Standardization, Security, Safety, and Control
5.6. Electric Power Demand and Supply
Management
5.7. Integrated Resource Planning Program
VI. NATIONAL ELECTRICITY CRISIS
6.1. Condition of National Electric Energy Supply
2007-2008
6.2. Phenomena of National Electric Crisis 2007-
2008
6.3. Deficit of 8 National Electricity Sub System as
of October 2008
6.4. The Effort to Suppress the National Electricity
Crisis
3
 6.4.1. Mega Project of National Electricity
worth US$208 billion
6.5. Electric Energy Needs Growth 2009-2018
6.5.1. Peak Load and Electric Sales 2008-
2018
6.5.2. National Generator Development Plan
2009-2018
6.5.3. Projection of Additional Power based
on Generator Specification until 2018
6.6. Government, PLN, and 10.000 MW
Electricity Project Phase I and II
6.6.1. IPP Procurement
6.7. Prospect, Strategy, and policy of PLN
6.7.1. Business Prospect
6.8. PLN Performance Achievement 2008
VII. NATIONAL ELECTRICITY PROJECT
7.1. 10.000 MW Coal PLTU acceleration
development project
7.1.1. Rationale and Ground Rule
7.1.2. Acceleration of Crash Program
project
7.1.3. Progress of Realization of Private
Electric Project (IPP) Generation I &
II (1992-2009)
7.2. Challenge & Business Opportunity of Private XI.
Electricity in Indonesia 2009-2018
7.2.1. Performance of IPP Projects Indonesia
as of April 2009.
7.2.2. Role of IPP in National Electricity
Projects 2008-2018
7.3. Progress of 10,000 MW Electricity Project
Phase II (2nd Fast Track Program)
7.3.1. 18 Project Locations of second Fast
Track Program in Jamali based on
generator
7.3.2. Development of 2nd Fast Track
Program plan as of April 2009
VIII. NATIONAL ELECTRICITY
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
PROJECTS
8.1. Electric Energy Procurement Investment
Mechanism
8.1.1. National Electricity Investment
Expense Needs
8.1.2. The Effort to Minimize the National
Electricity Investment Risk
8.2. Government, PLN, and 10,000 MW Coal
PLTU Projects Financing (Seek Fund to
China)
8.2.1. The Role of China banking and Coal
PLTU Projects Financing in Java
8.2.2. PLN Projects needs fund of US$6
billion
8.2.3. PLN and Bond issuance 2008
IX. DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSMISSION AND
DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL ELECTRIC
ENERGY
9.1. Condition of Transmission and Distribution of
National Electricity
9.1.1. Transmission development 2006-2010
9.1.1.1. Main Relay Station development
9.1.2. Distribution System development
X. PRIMARY ENERGY
10.1. Spreading of wealth and Prospect of Coal in
Indonesia 2008
10.2. Spreading of wealth and Prospect of
Geothermal in Indonesia 2008
PROGRAM AND PROJECTION OF
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
11.1. Program of National Electricity
Infrastructure Development 2009
11.2. Projection of additional generator 2009-2010
11.3. Projection of National Electric Energy Needs
2009-2010
11.4. Projection of National Electric Energy Needs
2008-2027 (According to RUKN 2008-2027)
XII. PROSPECT AND CONCLUSION
Attachment
UU No.30 Year 2010 About Electricity
4
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Study of
nd
2 FAST TRACK Progres
PERFORMANCE & OPPORTUNITY OF INDONESIA ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT
2009 – 2018
plus
(Featuring with Coal √ Geothermal Prospect in Indonesia)

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