Euro Forecaster 2015

The European
Forecaster
Newsletter of the WGCEF N 20

September 2015
C ontents
5
Introduction
Draft Minutes of the 20th Annual Meeting of WGCEF
10
Infra-Synoptic High Impact Events,

..the Forecasters Obsessive Fear
15
Saint Nicolas Storm 5 December 2013
19
Social Media at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
22
Bow Echoes: Conceptual Schemes and European Relevance
32
Simulation Training
A tool for forecasters and staff
34
A Global Forecast Quality Score for Administrative Purposes
38
Severe Freezing Rain in Slovenia
43
Synoptic analysis of the Catastrophic Floods in SE Europe, May 2014
48
Representatives of the WGCEF
Cover:
Medicane on 7/11/14,
Crdit Meteo-France
source METEO FRANCE
Printed by Mto-France
Editor Will Lang - Met Office
Layout Kirsi Hindstrom - Basic weather Services
Published by Mto-France
COM/CGN/PPN - Trappes
I ntroduction
Dear Colleagues,
Welcome to the 20th edition of The European Forecaster, a newsletter which has always sought to offer
something a little different to academic journals or trade publications, with its focus firmly on the forecasting profession itself. Once more the WGCEF kindly thanks Meteo France for their support in publishing this
edition. We hope it will find a home in forecast offices across Europe, and that our forecasting colleagues
find plenty to interest them within its pages in some of the all-too-brief quieter moments during their operational duties!
As we all know, the modern operational meteorologist is multi-skilled not just a scientist but an expert
decision-maker and communicator who can offer excellent service to our customers. We are involved with
the latest developments in technology and making use of new sources of information. And we understand
that our participation in training, strategic and business matters, and research can be as beneficial as our
traditional operational roles. I am very pleased, therefore, to see that the articles in this edition are equally
wide-ranging in scope. As ever, we have some excellent case-studies, here concerning a freezing rain event,
the Saint Nicolas storm, and the catastrophic Balkan floods of May 2014. We have a summary of current
thinking around bow echo convective phenomena, and presentation of a sophisticated new verification
scheme. There are also articles outlining simulation training for forecasters, and our increasing reliance on
social media.
Looking back on the last twelve months, it is encouraging to see the WGCEF gaining greater influence and
recognition within the European meteorological circles, largely through our involvement in EUMETNET, but
also through the dedication of our members. Increasingly our advice and experience is being sought, and
the cross-border networks we have formed have allowed us to share knowledge, data and discussions
around warnings to the mutual benefit of our organisations and nations, and for Europe as a whole. I am
sure that in the coming years, the modest efforts and resources of the WGCEF will continue to clearly
demonstrate the merits of collaboration in operational meteorology and in continued development of our
forecasting capabilities and skills.
Will Lang
Chair, WGCEF
May 2015
The European Forecaster
Draft Minutes of the 20th Annual Meeting

of the Working Group on Co-operation Between
European Forecasters (WGCEF)
Friday 3rd October 2014, WMO Building, Geneva, Switzerland
List of Participants
Members: Will Lang (UK, Chair),
Andre-Charles Letestu (Switzerland, Host),
Klaus Baehnke (Germany), Dick Blaauboer
(EUMETNET FP), Christian Csekits (Austria),
Jos Diepeveen (Netherlands), Karen-Helen
Doublet (Norway), Tessy Eiffener
(Luxembourg), Alessandro Fuccello (Italy),
Bruno Gillet-Chaulet (France), Tim Hewson
(ECWMF), Cecilia Karlsson (Finland), Piotr
Manczak (Poland), Janez Markosek (Slovenia), Jean Nemeghaire (Belgium), Lola
Olmeda (Spain), Taimi Paljak (Estonia) Antii Pelkonnen (Finland), Chryssoula Petrou
(Greece), Vida Raliene (Lithuania), Natasa Strelec-Mahovic (Croatia)
Observers and Guests: Daniel Cattani (Switzerland), Pierre Eckert (Switzerland),
Knut-Helge Midtboe (Norway), Marcel van Schaik (Netherlands),
Apologies
Evelyn Cusack (Ireland, Vice-Chair), Bernard Roulet (France), Knut-Jacob Simonsen
(Denmark)
1. Will opened the meeting and welcomed the

participants, with each member then introducing
themselves.
2. The agenda was agreed, and actions from the last
meeting (newsletter production, arrangement of the
next meeting) were judged complete aside from the
standing actions to look to increase membership of
the group and promote our work.
3. Pierre Eckert, Meteo Suisse Head of Regional
Centre, West Switzerland then warmly welcomed the
WG to Geneva. He gave an overview of Meteo
Suisses structure, responsibilites and operations.
He then made a plea for more forecaster involvement into science and NWP activies, particularly
within European working groups. He recognised that
6
WGCEF involvement in EUMETNET was a positive

step towards this goal, but urged group members
and their colleagues to do more to engage with other
groups.
4. Will then gave his Chairmans address. Looking
back on another year of eventful weather across
Europe, he noted that forecasters are now increasingly influencial outside the meteorological community and routinely involved in big decisions within
our governments. So the importance of expressing
ourselves correctly and making sure our advice is
understood continues to grow. He then noted that
Geneva was the home of CERN, and noted some
parallels and differences between meteorology and
particle physics. In particular, the discovery of the
Higgs Boson had achieved great public awareness,
despite the complexity of ideas involved.

Meteorology is a more mature and well-understood
science, with very tangible outcomes, and we should
be able to gain similar understanding of, and
support for, our work.
5. There was a discussion around the latest (19th)
issue of our Newsletter, The European Forecaster,
led by Bruno. We agreed that this issue had been
the best, and certainly the biggest, yet, and passed
on many thanks to Bernard and the publishing team
and management at Meteo France for their support.
Bruno announced that Meteo France would be able
to produce the next three issues of the newsletter.
This offer was very gratefully accepted by the group.
It was also acknowledged that there should be some
planning to find alternative arrangements for the
publishing of the 23rd and subsequent newsletters.
Tim stated that, as a new member, he thought the
Newsletter could have wider distribution and more
publicity, to which the group agreed.
6. Andre-Charles gave an update on our website
www.euroforecaster.org and we thanked him for his
continued maintenance of the site. It was agreed
that the site would remain autonomous from EUMETNET sites, but that we would work to strengthen the
mutual links between WGCEF and EUMETNET sites.
Will mentioned that a WGCEF Linkedin page had
been created, and that he would look to expand
membership of this in the next year.
7. Group members then gave short summaries of
developments at their respective NMSs in the last
year. These summaries are outlines in Annex A
below.
8. Dick gave an update on EUMETNET activites, especially within the Forecasting Programme. He
explained the structure of the working groups and
expert teams and outlined further potential for
WCGEF involvement in wider activities.
9. Christian described our strong involvement in,
and his leadership of, a EUMETNET Task Team to
investigate options for collaboration in the naming
of European windstorms. The Team had produced a
number of recommendations for the EUMETNET STAC
based on substantial input from WGCEF members. A
lively discussion followed, demonstrating that there
are both pros and cons for not just the collaborative
aspects, but whether storms should be named at all.
There was a collective feeling, however, that NMSs
needed to assert their authority on this issue, else
others will name storms for us and perhaps confuse

our severe weather messaging.
10. Members of the Group then gave 10-15 minute
presentations on a wide range of relevant topics,
including case studies of recent weather, new
systems and tools for forecasters, and use of social
media. The content of these presentations is available on our website, at www.euroforecaster.
org/gpeasy/gpEasy_CMS/ Presentations_2014
11. The meeting concluded with a decision on the
location and date of the next meeting. Jean
Nemeghaire offered to host the 2015 meeting in
Belgium, which would appropriately commemorate
his retirement from both our group and from RMIB.
This offer was unanimously accepted, and the 21st
WGCEF is therefore scheduled for early October 2015
in Brussels.
12. Will declared the meeting to have been successfully completed, and the group adjourned to the
Meteo Suisse office for refreshments.
Actions
All: Promote, and increase circulation of, The
European Forecaster.
All: Send presentations to Andre-Charles for the
website
All: Send articles for next newsletter to Will between
January and March 2015
All: Discuss possible topics for next meeting via
email
Will, Evelyn and Jean: Organise next years meeting
Will, Bernard: Produce next issue of The European
Forecaster
Christian: Report back on Storm-Naming task at next
meeting.
Annex A: Summary
of NMS Developments
Andre-Charles (Switzerland)
A new radar has been installed in Vallee
A new web platform has been designed to warn
the public of dangerous conditions, including pollen
forecasts.
Klaus (Germany)
DWD is installing a new Cray HPC
The DWD global model will have 13km resolution
and 90 vertical levels. Within this is nested a
European model, and a 2.2km resolution model
covering Germany.
Some stations are now closed overnight, with an

increasing reliance on auto observations.
Christian (Austria)
No dramatic changes at ZAMG in the last year, and
no big reductions in numbers of staff, though some
merging of departments is planned.
Automatic observations are being used more
frequently, especially at night.
They are running at 2.5km version of AROME
They are unifying their forecast production
systems.
Natasa (Croatia)
The office in Rijeka has been closed due to staff
shortages, so in addition to the HQ in Zagreb, there
is only one regional office, in Split. This has caused
some issues due to some locations now being
served by offices further away and with different
dialects.
ALADIN is run 4x per day, with a version of ALARO
running at 2km resolution.
2 new forecasters have been recruited at the
Zagreb office.
Tim (ECWMF)
The move to the new ECMWF website is 90%
complete, and feedback is very much encouraged.
The website includes a facility to submit and
discuss case studies, along with known problems
with the models.
The global model will move to 8-10km resolution
next year.
In the medium term, the next computer upgrade
will also see a move to a new building.
Alessandro (Italy)
A project to reorganise Met activities is underway.
Currently warnings are issued at Regional level,
though a new procedure for severe weather warnings is being devised.
New systems are being developed, and there is a
culture of real-time feedback between operations
and developers.
Taimi (Estonia)
The weather service continues to operate six
manned observation stations.
The HIRLAM model is being developed, moving to
a new computer and also using HARMONIE.
Since June there has been a new webpage with
better visualisation of warnings.
Bruno (France)
ARPEGE is moving to 7km resolution with 105
layers, and a new DA system.
The new PCMT convection scheme has been
delayed.
The domain of AROME is being widened, incorporating an hourly DA cycle.
Staff reductions continue.
New Exec Director is seeking a reorganisation of
forecasting, with a focus on higher quality prediction
processes which require less human input.
Lola (Spain)
The ongoing reorganisation of the service results in
reduction of personnel and greater use of automated
products, based on the Global Forecast Editor (GFE)
approach.
Closer links with media are being developed.
Work is underway to improve marine forecasts.
A renewal of the HPC is expected early in 2015.
Chryssoula (Greece)
The service has financial difficulties, and when forecasters retire they are not being replaced.
Observing stations are being automated, especially
at night, with only the international airports retaining manual observations.
A colour-coded warning system has been developed,
aligned with MeteoAlarm.
The COSMO model is used. Performance can fluctuate, particularly for wind forecasts between the
islands.
Karen (Norway)
They are cooperating with Sweden to run local
AROME model.
There is increased cooperation between forecasters
and R&D, with forecasters now expected to take part
in project work.
There is emphasis on the development of marine
services, especially for the Arctic.
Vida (Lithuania)
No significant staff reductions this year.
A new workstation for aviation has been developed, and general forecasting is moving onto IBL
workstations.
They are moving into a new, better equipped, forecast room.
There has been a decision to join MeteoAlarm.
Janez (Slovenia)
No staff changes in the last year.
There is further automation of the monitoring
network.
A new radar is operational in western Slovenia
Forecasters use 3 hrly ALADIN at 5km along with
EC models.
The Met Service has a developing Twitter presence.
UK (Will)
Meteorologists are being trained in a 5 Facet
Model of modern forecasting which includes
emphasis on customer needs, soft skills and
involvement in development.
UKMO makes extensive and two-way use of social
media.
A 24/7 Space Weather centre has recently become
operational
Antii (Finland)
FMI celebrated 90 years of aviation weather
services this year.
A reorganisation is underway, which should allow
greater cooperation between operations and
research.
Piotr (Poland)
There will be further automation of the observing
network, and this process is becoming faster, with
staff reductions likely.
A new provider for aviation weather services is to
be selected later this year.
During the last storm season, a special team
supported the regional centres.
Jos (Netherlands)
The KNMI reorganisation continues, with a new
financial model and a flatter management structure.
There should be better integration between
research and development.
Staff are used flexibly, depending on the weather
situation.
Tessy (Luxembourg)
There are 22 staff at MeteoLux, but 3 new forecasters will increase that number to 25.
Its funding model has changed, with half provided
by the airport and now half by the state.
A new warnings system has been developed with
stronger emphasis on collaboration with civil protection and on publication of impact-based alerts
which push information towards the media and
public.
Flood warnings are now available on Meteoalarm,
in partnership with the hydrological agency.
Jean (Belgium)
There is a new dual polarisation radar at
Maastricht, and 3 new lidars for aerosol measurement.
There is discussion of longer range forecasts, eg up
to 2 weeks.
Infra-Synoptic High Impact Events,

..the Forecasters Obsessive Fear.
Bruno Gillet-Chaulet, Meteo France
Introduction
Forecast errors are inherent elements of the forecasters job. Some are inevitable. Some are unimportant. But some are fraught with consequences
and make a deep impression. Nowadays the synoptic scale is widely under control. Numerical weather
prediction models have become remarkably powerful, for the short range at least. Synoptic elements
then often take all our attention; the mesoscale is
sometimes put aside and remains a challenge.
During the last few years, as a forecaster, I have
been witness to several situations where violent
small scale phenomena had a national impact. In
some cases, these events were not anticipated and
called into question the role of the forecasters. In
this short article, a recent situation is described and
issues raised by the events are discussed.
Figure 1: Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, Geopotential height and temperature at 500 hPa, ARPEGE analysis.
Scenario:
The situation took place in the summer of 2014. On
Thursday, 3d of July, around midday, a cut-off low
was situated over Iberia (Figure 1). At lower levels, a
barometric marsh was spreading over a large part
of Western Europe with warm air (Figure 2). It was
mostly dry over France at that time except over the
southern regions. Instability developed over Spain in
response to diurnal heating and the presence of cold
air in the mid and upper levels. Showers, thunderstorms and lightning were observed. Because of
southerly flow, clouds and rain were crossing over
the Pyrenees and were reaching the south western
part of France in the evening (Figure 3). This was not
expected - a sunny day had been forecast, an error
that sometimes happens, fortunately in this case
without damaging repercussions!
For the next day, models gave the following
scenario: The cut-off low was predicted to turn to a
dynamic short wave trough, moving quickly northeastwards to the Alpine regions (Figure 4). At lower
levels, pressure was forecast to decrease, flow
speeding up with continual warm advection
Figure 3: Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, MSG image and lightning strikes.
10 The European Forecaster
Figure 2: Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, Mean sea level pressure and

wet-bulb potential temperature at 850 hPa, ARPEGE analysis.
Figure 6: Conceptual view for Friday 4 July, mean sea level

pressure, base time Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC.
Figure 4: ARPEGE forecast for 12 UTC, Friday 4 July, base time

Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, Geopotential height and temperature
at 500 hPa.

Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, Mean sea level pressure, 10 m wind barbs
and wet-bulb potential temperature at 850 hPa.
(increasing of wet bulb potential temperature).

Moisture was brought from the Mediterranean Sea
with south-easterly winds (Figure 5).
The graphical product below (PRESYG, Figure 6)
summarizes these conditions and highlights the key
synoptic elements: dynamic forcing with an active
PV (Potential Vorticity) anomaly; strong upper level
jet-streaks with an area of divergence (left exit, right
entrance); low level convergence with strong westerly/south-easterly winds on both sides of this area.
Finally, the vertical profile shows thermal instability
with significant values of CAPE (Convective Available
Potential Energy) and vertical wind shear (Figure 7).

Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, vertical profile over South-East of France.
Figure 8: Vigilance watch map base time Thursday 3 July, 4 p.m.
Models were in good agreement, and uncertainty

was very low. Logically, a decision was made to
issue an orange warning for violent thunderstorms accompanied by hail, heavy rainfall, and
severe wind gusts. Several Vigilance watch maps
were published for this situation. The first one was

issued on Thursday, 4 p.m. The second one
confirmed the warning with the threat extended to
the east on Friday, 6 a.m. (Figures 8, 9).
11
Figure 9: Vigilance watch map base time Friday 4 July, 6 a.m.
stones with a 2 cm diameter, heavy rainfall with

accumulated precipitation above 40 mm within an
hour. The thunderstorms caused little damage but
occurred in numerous places. Local fire brigades
had to step in because of fallen trees and branches, roof tiles blown down, flooding, and one house
destroyed by fire after lightning strike. In short, this
inventory indicates that the warning was completely justified thanks to an accurate synoptic forecast.
Right Decision:
This was the right decision to make. Over a wide
part of eastern and south-eastern regions of
France, thunderstorms were numerous and sometimes violent (Figures 10, 11). Various risk criteria
were met: wind gusts more than 100 km/h, hail-
Figure 12: Time series of level of the Nive near Cambo-lesBains with previous records (blue straight lines).
One can add that the forecaster's job was not so

difficult taking into account the relevant synoptic
elements.
However:
Figure 10: 24 h rainfall accumulation between Friday 4 July,

00 UTC and Saturday 5 July, 00 UTC.
The reader with a sharp eye will have noticed that

heavy rainfall also occurred in the south-western
part of France (Figure 10), which became the hot
issue of the time! Effectively, during the night, a
strong stationary convective system gave excessive
precipitation over a quite wide area. More than 100
mm were measured by a rain gauge in the village of
Bustince (Pays Basque). Radar observations gave
hourly intensity above 50 mm. Because the soils
Figure 11: Lightning strikes between Friday 4 July, 00 UTC
Figure 13: Headlines of Newspaper Sud-Ouest. Note the words
and Saturday 5 July, 00 UTC.
controversy, surprise, victims fulminate, catastrophic toll.
had already been saturated after a rainy spring,

there was a destructive flash flood from the river
Nive(Figure 12). The previous record, dating from
1915, was largely beaten. One person was killed,
swept away by an actual wave. Several villages
suffered a lot of damage along the riverside.
People and the media quickly complained because
the event had not been anticipated (Figure 13). As
a result, Meteo France forecasting services were
put under strain.
strong clear signal of heavy rainfall over the Pays

Basque. Consequently, the warning for rain was
issued on Friday, 7 a.m. (Figure 17), was updated
twice during the day, including flood risk, and
ended at 4 p.m. Unfortunately, this came a little
too late to be really helpful for the population and
civil protection services
Late Signal:
At this stage, it must be said with strength and
honesty that this episode couldnt have been
predicted the day before. Looking carefully at the
accumulated precipitation charts from different
models available at that time (Figures 14, 15), no
signal emerged to bring to light an exceptional
rainy event on the South-West of France. Rain was
predicted, in the form of showers or thunderstorms, but the amount of precipitation remained
under severe thresholds over this area.
Figure 15: AROME 12 h rainfall accumulation between Thursday 3

July, 18 UTC and Friday 4 July, 6 UTC, forecast base time Thursday 3
July, 6 UTC.temperature at 500 hPa, ARPEGE analysis.
Additionally, gaze was turned to the South-East

side of the Country where deep convection was
expected because of the synoptic context previously described. Some squall line features appeared in
the mesoscale rain fields focusing eye on the
threat in this direction.
The right indication was only given at the end of
the night by the fine-mesh model AROME (Figure
16), whereas the event had just started. This latest
forecast proved to be perfectly accurate with a
Figure 16: AROME 12 h rainfall accumulation between Friday 4

July, 00 UTC and 12 UTC, forecast base time Friday 4 July, 00 UTC.
Figure 14: ARPEGE 12 h rainfall accumulation between Thursday 3

July, 18 UTC and Friday 4 July, 6 UTC, forecast base time Thursday 3
July, 6 UTC.
Figure 17: Vigilance watch map base time Friday 4 July, 7 a.m.
13
Conclusion:
To be able to detect when and where models move
away from reality and to be then in a position to
correct the forecast is the primary task of the forecaster. Nevertheless, a diagnostic sometimes is not
obvious. Furthermore, these unexpected situations
correspond to those the forecaster is the least
prepared for, by definition! Luckily, these conditions seem to remain rare. As far as I am
concerned, in the past 15 years, I can remember 4
or 5 circumstances similar to the one described in
this article. And no doubt that the improvements of
numerical weather prediction will make them less
and less frequent in the future. However, they are
important because they can have detrimental
consequences for the forecast team by creating
conflicts between forecasters themselves and
between forecasters and management.
These situations point up some psychological
aspects:
Attention is often focused on a specific area where
troubles are expected. Our mind is less attentive to
what happens elsewhere.
These cases can occur most often at the worst
times, such as at the end of a night shift, when
tiredness is maximal. The ability to assimilate fresh
information, to react in a proper way, and the motivation to trigger a new warning production cycle
are minimal. The paradox is that a forecaster who is
not aware of the situation (open-minded) could be
more reactive!
The point of view presented in this article is not

intended to make forecasters paranoid, nevertheless, writing this paper, the following quote came
back to my memory:
il en ressort que celui qui doit prvoir le temps,
sil le fait avec conscience et application, ne peut
plus avoir une vie tranquille et court un grand
danger de voir craquer ses nerfs et devenir fou. *,
by Buys Ballots (President of International
Meteorological Organization), from the speech at
the first International Meteorological World
Conference (1873, Vienna, Austria).
* as a result, he who is in charge of predicting
the weather, if he works conscientiously and carefully, cant lead a quiet life and is exposed to
serious danger to mentally snap and go mad.
Saint Nicolas Storm 5 December 2013

Marcel Van Schaik, KNMI
Introduction
An active low pressure system moved east across the
northern part of the North Sea during 5 and 6 December
2013. Because of this system, a weather alarm was
issued for very strong gusts along our coast and further
inland. This storm also caused water levels to rise along
our coast because of the strong northwesterly winds at
the western flank of the aforementioned low.
In this article I would like to give an overview of the
development of the low pressure area, the model forecasts and the consequences that this storm had for
our country. This will be done from the perspective of a
marine forecaster and therefore water level forecasts
will be mentioned as well. This is also the reason that
this article will start with a short description of the
vulnerability of The Netherlands to high water levels.
The Netherlands is situated on the southern edge of the

North Sea (figure 3). It is not hard to imagine that water
levels along the Dutch coast can become critical when
strong northwesterly winds push North Sea water
towards the coast. Along our coast are several large
dune areas that are able to withstand high water levels.
Along other parts of the coast the Dutch had to build
several water barriers to improve the coastal defence.
The Hondsbossche Zeewering is one of these examples (figure 4 a). Other famous barriers include the
Maeslant barrier and the Oosterschelde barrier (figure 4
b and c). These two barriers are movable barriers and
can be closed if necessary.
Figure 3
This case is called the Saint Nicolas storm in the

Netherlands because of a Dutch national celebration that takes place on the 5th of December.
Vulnerability
a)
The Netherlands is, as the name indicates, a very

low lying country. About half of the country is situated around or below sea level (figure 1). The area
that is below sea level comprises the western part of
the country. That is also the area where most people
live (figure 2); important cities like Amsterdam, The
Hague and Rotterdam are situated in this area
b)
c)
Figure 4 abc
Figures 1 and 2
The Saint Nicolas Storm

Synoptic setting
An active low near Iceland moved
eastwards and reached Norway on
Thursday 5 December (figure 5 and
6). This low had a pressure core of
965 hPa. The Most Notable and
important feature of this low pressure system was an active cold
front that moved southeastwards
over the North Sea. This front
reached the Netherlands in the
15
Figure 8
afternoon. The cold front left the country early in the

evening. The wind veered to a northwesterly direction directly behind the cold front which caused
high water levels along the coast.
The passage of this front was accompanied by a

narrow line of (thundery) showers (figure 8). These
showers were responsible for the strongest gusts
Model Output
Figure 5
Average wind speeds reached 9-10 Bft (figure 6).

Highest wind speeds were measured just before
passage of the cold front. The strongest gusts were
measured during the passage of the cold front
(figure 7).
Figures
6 and 7
Meteorologists at KNMI make use of the following

models; ECMWF, Hirlam and the newest and most
detailed one, Harmonie. All models had a more or
less similar forecast; strong gusts were predicted by
all models and the timing of the cold front passage
was also quite similar. In the end Harmonie turned
out to be the most accurate model; the representation and prediction of thundershowers along the
frontal zone was very accurate (figure 9 and 10) and
also the forecast wind speed and wind gusts were
described accurately (figure 11 and 12).
Figures 9 and 10
Figure 11 and 12
17
Water related consequences

of the storm
Water levels
As mentioned above, water levels started to rise
after the passage of the cold front. The synoptic
charts show a northwesterly flow over a large part of
the North Sea. This caused water levels to rise along
the Dutch coast. ECMWF did calculate the storm
depression in an early stage. That is why water level
calculations showed a peak around the 5 th of
December as well. An example of this water level
calculation can be seen in figure 13. Water levels
are calculated by a water level model (WAQUA) and
all ECMWF members are used as input for this water
level model. As a consequence 52 water level
members are represented. The colored dashed lines
in this graph represent several important water level
thresholds. A video capture of a 3D animation
(figure 14) gives a representation of water levels
along the Dutch coast.
Near-record high water levels were reached in the

northeastern part of the country. Also in other parts
of the country very high water levels were reached;
the moveable barrier in the Oosterschelde had to be
closed (figure 15). The last time that this barrier was
closed was in 2007. Some low lying houses were
partly flooded.
Figure 15
Figure 13
Figure 14
Social Media at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

Klaus Bhnke, Deutscher Wetterdienst/Offenbach
Introduction
Social media complement and increasingly determine the public discourse. By March 2010, 30
million Germans were already members of internet
communities. Maintaining contact with friends and
families, the exchange of common interests and
experiences, and the opportunity to find new
friends are the main reasons for the membership of
users in these communities. Seven social media
sites were among the twenty most visited websites
in Germany (YouTube, Facebook, Wikipedia,
LinkedIn, Twitter, Blogger, Xing). The VZ network
alone had almost 17 millon users, and Facebook
had over 11 million in Germany. Although Twitter
has so far only 350,000 German-speaking active
accounts, it continues to receive high media attention. Among Twitter users an above average number
of opinion leaders were present.
All this, along with the pressure to respond in crisis
situations, urged the German Weather Service (DWD)
to enter the field of modern social media in 2011.
1994 and is published by the media group of the

central forecasting office. This is published daily and
is text-based. It contains interesting meteorological
topics or explanations, mostly influenced by current
events. Its targets are journalists, press agencies and
the interested public. The newsletter is distributed
every day by email to about 1800 customers. Since it
has also been placed on the website of the German
Weather Service, it has achieved significantly higher
distribution and readership.
Facebook
With the appearance of modern means of communication such as smartphones, the advent of new
media phenomena such as "shitstorms" as well as
severe weather events, the German Weather Service
decided to play a bigger part in the social media
sector.
Thus DWD started its Facebook page (Fig. 2) on the
web in March 2011.
Top Story of the Day

In the broadest sense, the first step
of our social media is the newsletter "Top Story of the Day" (Fig. 1),
which was launched by DWD in
Figure 1: Example for Top Story of the Day
Figure 2: DWD on Facebook
19
The aim is to position the German Weather Service

in social media, to attract the press to its web
pages, to interact with the public and have a better
means of reaction during crises.
The Facebook page is monitored daily and supplied
with interesting topics from the media department
of the central forecasting office during normal office
hours (0700-1700). During a crisis event the Public
Relations department of the Meteorological Service
monitors activities on Facebook continuously and
can respond immediately. By the end of 2014 the
website had about 69 000 followers.
Twitter
Another important social media tool is Twitter.
Twitter is an online social networking service that
enables users to send and read short 140-character messages. The German Weather Service has
participated in this service since 2011. The aim is
to position the public weather service in social
media, but here 2 separate sectors are served:

firstly the press and secondly other special users
such as the agricultural sector. This is done by
means of Twitter_press (Fig. 3) as well as by
Twitter_agrar (Fig. 4). Twitter_press is served by the
PR department and has about 4700 followers while
Twitter_agrar is supplied by the agrometeorological
department and has about 220 followers.
YouTube
YouTube is a very important social platform.
YouTube is a video portal of Google. Users can view
and upload free of charge video clips on this portal.
With the installation of a professional television
studio in the headquarters of the German Weather
Service in Offenbach (Fig. 5) it was possible to
Figure 5: TV-studio
at DWD-Headquarters
Figure 3: Twitter_presse
Figure 5:
DWD on YouTube
produce video clips that were used for YouTube

(Fig. 6) from March 2011 on. The goal was position
DWD in social medias and also to be able to
communicate professionally with the public in
case of severe weather events and crisis situations
as well as in-house with its own employees.
Figure 4: Twitter_agar
Regularly, interesting meteorological topics and

stories about DWD are produced and uploaded to
YouTube. Every day a moderated weather forecast
clip is produced by the media department of the
central forecasting office. However, for legal
Figure 7: DWD on Flickr
reasons it is open only to employees on the

intranet. Only in the case of severe weather will it be
opened to the public. Hereupon the clip will be
referenced on DWDs warning page, on Facebook
and Twitter. The YouTube clips in a severe weather
event are then regularly linked by press agencies or
used on television.
Regularly the DWD YouTube page has 5000- 9000
followers daily, during severe weather events even
reaching 30000-40000 followers.
Flickr
Flickr is a commercial web-service portal that allows
users to upload digital and digitized pictures with
comments and notes to the site and make it available to other users.
DWDs Flickr-site (Fig. 7) is supplied with interesting
weather pictures by the PR department and has
about 69 000 followers. The aim is also to position
the DWD in social media.
Twitter and Flickr at the beginning of 2011. With the

installation of a professional television studio in the
headquarters of DWD, it was possible to produce
video clips for Youtube demonstrating the idea
that 'a picture or a clip says a thousand words'.
The activities focus on:
Positioning DWD in social media
Interaction with the public
Customer service
Crisis communication
References
Leitfaden Social Media, BITKOM 2010,
Bundesverband Informationswirtschaft,
Telekommunikation und neue Medien
e. V., Albrechtstrae 10 A, 10117 Berlin-Mitte
www.facebook.com/DeutscherWetterdienst
www.twitter.com/dwd_presse
https://twitter.com/dwd_agrar
www.youtube.com/DWDderWetterdienst
www.flickr.com/deutscherwetterdienst
Summary
The DWD is widely represented in the field of social
media. This had already started with a daily
newsletter with interesting, current meteorological
topics in 1994, but later reinforced with Facebook,
21
Bow Echoes :
Conceptual Schemes and European Relevance
Laurent Goulet, Meteo France
Introduction
Convective systems are traditionally classified
according to three categories: single cells, multicells and supercells (Weisman and Klemp, 1982).
These features can be discriminated in various
ways, such as by their complexity, the environment
in which they develop, or their consequences. For
example, amongst the three categories, supercells
are probably the most complex.
However, convective reality is more complex than
prescribed by this classification. For instance, the
multicell class encompasses convective systems
whose effects can be very different. For example,
squall lines, which belong to this category, are very
mobile systems providing potentially strong gusts.
On the other hand, multicells can be also stationary, as regularly observed in Mediterranean regions,
instead giving significant rain accumulation.
as an intermediate system between a supercell and

squall line. This question will be developed later in
this paper.
A convective system may be named a bow echo if
its rain pattern seen from radar shows a bowshaped envelope. The case observed on September
12th, 2004, in southeastern France, matches this
criterion well (Figure 2b).
Nolan (1959) was first in noticing a link between
this particular feature and dangerous manifestations, such as tornadoes.
But an important step was made by Fujita (1978)
who provided pioneering work regarding bow
echoes. In particular, he proposed a simple
conceptual model which described the typical life
cycle of a bow echo (Figure 1) and its three dimensional dynamic structure. In the Fujita framework,
line-end vortices, the Rear Inflow Jet (RIJ),
and the strongest winds at the bows apex
were described.
Since then, knowledge about bow echoes
has much progressed. In particular,
researchers have focused on two facets.
Figure 1 : COMET illustration of typical bow echo life cycle, as first described
by Fujita (1978). One can notice three main steps :
the Echo (A), Bow Echo (B and and C), and Comma Echo (D and E) phases.
Moreover, in some cases, classification into three

categories appears coarse. Indeed, intermediate
kinds of convective organization can occur. They
possess attributes from different classes.
Sometimes one could define a new category.
This is probably the case regarding bow echoes.
In fact, in terms of consequences, scale, structure
and mechanism, bow echoes could be summarized
The first topic concerns the optimal environment favouring such a phenomenon
(Johns and Hirt, 1987; Evans and Doswell,
2001). The second one is about mechanisms which are responsible for the
strongest winds. In this respect, great attention has been paid to mesoscale vortices
related to bow echoes life cycle (Weisman,
1993; Atkins et al, 2005; Wakimoto et al,
2006).
Bow echoes were invented, then mainly studied,

in the USA. However, the bow echo concept also
seems relevant in a European context. Indeed, in
recent years, several articles concerning this topic
and mentioning cases observed in Europe have
been published: Schmid et al (2000), Gatzen
(2004) and Punkka et al (2006) investigated Swiss,
German and Finnish cases respectively.
The goals of this paper are multiple. First of all, our

purpose is to provide the main structural and
temporal characteristics of bow echoes: spatial
organization, typical life cycle, internal dynamics,
consequences in terms of hazards, and their
various footprints in observations.
Secondly, we focus our attention on the mechanisms responsible for this unique kind of convection. In particular, we place emphasis on building
mesovortices, RIJ dynamics, and the RKW
(Rotunno, Klemp and Weisman, 1988) paradigm, in
which an equilibrium has to exist between

baroclinic vorticity (associated to density current),
and environmental vorticity (related to vertical wind
shear).
Moreover, we give some insights about environmental conditions favouring such a convective organization. A short review will be proposed.
To conclude this article, we outline some checks
linked to bow echoes observational footprints,
giving some precious information about the convective system. Also, some perspectives will be provided regarding forecast and monitoring.
Typical Life Cycle

and Key Features
A bow echo is at first characterized by a bowshaped pattern as observed by a radar network
(Figures 2b and 3). Its size is of the order of tens to
150 km (compared to 100 to 1000 km for a squall
line). Its lifetime varies from tens of minutes to
several hours.
Before the development of the bow, the convective
context is very varied. Convection can be very organized such as in supercells or squall lines (Figure
2a), respectively in 15 and 40% of cases (Klimowski
et al, 2004). But in a slight majority of cases (45%),
convection appears only weakly organized.
Figure 2 :
Radar
reflectivities
from the French
radar network
ARAMIS, at
2245 utc (a),
0015 utc (b),
0100 utc (c).
This sequence
shows typical
life cycle of a
bow echo from
a linear squall
line (a) to a
comma shape
echo (c). The
bow echo
phase seems to
be consecutive
to merging of
the squall line
with the
convective
system number
2, off the
Pyrnes
Orientales.
Typically, bow echo formation starts from a cluster

of more or less independent cells. Then these
merge, leading to a flat system (Figure 1, step A).
Afterwards, the reflectivity pattern starts to bow.
Concavity rapidly amplifies (Figure 1 phases B
and C, Figure 2b). In some cases, reflectivities show
a spearhead shaped pattern (Figure 3). This evolution is related to a strong acceleration of midlevel
flow at the rear of the convective system: the so
called Rear Inflow Jet (RIJ; Fujita, 1978).
The Rear Inflow Jet is focused around the centre of
the line, helping its deformation and subsequent
bow pattern evolution. The RIJ is an important facet
of a bow echo. It is at the heart of its dynamics. As
the RIJ goes down to the ground, it leads to strong
acceleration of the surface wind with substantial
straight-line damaging effects (sometimes from F0
to F1 level). One reliable radar signature of the RIJ is
the Rear Inflow Notch (RIN), a channel of weak
radar echo (Figure 3; Przybylinski, 1995).
23
Rear Inflow Jet dynamic is partly connected to

midlevel (from 3 to 7 km above ground level) lineend mesovortices: the bookend vortices. These can
strengthen the RIJ, provided they are sufficiently
close to each other. For a bow echo which is northsouth oriented, the northern and southern vortices
are respectively cyclonic and anticyclonic. In the last
part of the bow echo life cycle, the cyclonic vortex
generally prevails. Convective organization then
resembles a comma pattern (Figure 1 phases D
and E, Figure 2c). In general, the size of vortices is of
the order of tens of km.
not negligible. The tornadoes are mainly F0 to F2.

But stronger intensities (F3 to F4) have already been
observed.
Some studies suspect a link between midlevel
vortices, in particular the northern cyclonic one,
and tornado genesis (Funk et al, 1999). In this
context, the influence of midlevel eddies may
extend toward ground level.
Many tornadoes seem also to be generated by low
level meso--scale vortices, in addition to midlevel
ones. These typically form in the 0.3
km above ground level layer, along
the leading edge of the convective
system (Atkins et al, 2005). Such
vortices whose size is of the order of
several km are not systematically
organized into couplets. They can
appear solitary. It may be possible
to discern between the tornadic and
the non-tornadic vortices. Thus,
tornadic vortices are stronger, longlived (duration longer than 1 hour)
and deeper (Atkins et al, 2005).
Low level vortices could also be
implicated in straight line wind
damage, in association with the RIJ,
by modulation of pressure gradient
(Wakimoto et al, 2006).
The density current or cold pool is

another important component of bow
echoes. Several studies revealed
that it is deeper than earlier thinking
suggested; it typically approaches
3-5 km in depth, with thermal deficit
from 6 to 8C (Bryan et al, 2004).
This is not surprising, as the cold
Figure 3: (a) Typical horizontal pattern of a bow echo. One can notice : a) bookend
pool plays a fundamental role regardvortices (MV) at the ends of the convective line ; b) the Rear Inflow Jet (green arrow), a
ing gusts occurrence and more
mid-tropospheric current coming from the rear of a bow echo ; c) low level meso vortex
generally in the life cycle of the
which are close to the convective system boundary ; d) the rear inflow notch, a channel of
weak reflectivity in the the stratiform region ; e) the apex, the summit of the concave pattern. storm. Recently, Adams-Selin et al
(b) Mediterranean case of the 17 august, 2004. Some key features have been reported.
(2010 and 2013), have proposed
mechanisms in which a cold pool
Such mesovortices may strongly determine the contributes to bowing development by the intermedihydrometeors distribution, and therefore the reflec- ate mechanism of a so-called mesohigh surge.
tivities. Thus a rolling up of high reflectivities may
To conclude, bow echo structure is sometimes relareveal the existence of an eddy (Figure 2c).
tively complex. One or several embedded bowing
In the USA, around 20% of the total number of segments may develop inside a larger scale system,
tornadoes may be induced by bow echoes and which can also be a bow echo or a squall line.
squall lines (Tessendorf and Trapp, 2000). This is Bowing segments generally have their own bookend
mesovortices, and their own RIJ, which represents

typically a local strengthening of the system scale
RIJ.
(a) RIJ : the pressure gradient paradigm (from Lafore and Moncrieff, 1989)
If a bow echo or larger scale system containing bow

echo(es) is sufficiently intense, one can call it a
derecho.
Mechanisms
a. The RKW Paradigm
The cold pool is very prominent inside bow echoes.
Its boundaries are a site of strong baroclinic horizontal vorticity. In the RKW theory (Rotunno,
Klemp and Weisman, 1988), this baroclinic vorticity
has to be more or less balanced by the environmental one (associated to wind shear). According to this
condition, ascending motions are more upright and
stronger. More severe and more durable storms are
favoured.
(b) RIJ : vorticity paradigm (from Weisman, 1993)
b. Mesovortices Genesis
One important bow echo attribute is its mesovortices. These have two types: 1) the midlevel bookend
vortices, which appear at the ends of the convective
line; 2) the low level vortices which develop along
the leading edge of the storm system.
Mechanisms proposed in various studies are generally based on the tilting of horizontal crosswise
vorticity (Figure 4). Horizontal vorticity is most of the
time baroclinically generated along the cold pool
boundary. However, some of the genesis of the
midlevel bookend vortices, could alternatively, at
the beginning, be the result of environmental wind
shear.
Bookend vortices genesis : primary mechanism
Figure 5: Complementary explanations of the Rear Inflow Jet.

Lafore and Moncrieff (1989)s explanation (a) is based on the
xistence of a pressure gradient from front to rear of the convective
system. Weisman (1993) propose an alternative mechanism,
implying generated baroclinically vorticity, in relation to cold pool
and the stratiform part (as associated latent heating).
Concerning low level vortices, some uncertainties

exist. Moreover, mechanisms have to be found for
both solitary structures and couplet ones. Tilting of
crosswise vorticity is not compatible with solitary
vortices. Indeed, it necessarily generates couplets.
Thus, tilting must imply streamwise vorticity, that is
the component of the vorticity parallel to the storm
relative flow.
As vertical vorticity has been created, stretching by
ascending motions amplifies the whirling motion.
Moreover, stretching of the planetary vorticity
(terrestrial rotation effect) explains why cyclonic
circulations prevail finally, in particular in the northern bookend vortex (Weisman and Davis, 1998;
Weisman and Trapp, 2003).
c. Dynamics of the Rear Inflow Jet (RIJ)
Figure 4: Main mechanism relative to bookend mesovortices

genesis. This one is based on upward tilting of baroclinic horizontal
vorticity. Baroclinic horizontal vorticity appears along boundaries of
the density current.
The RIJ is an important component of bow echoes.

At first, it is partly responsible for the strongest
winds, in particular as it is associated with low level
mesoscale vortices (Wakimoto et al, 2006).
Secondly, it is a very active piece in the complex
puzzle of bow echo dynamics.
25
The RIJ has received various explanations, which are

generally complementary. Historically, Lafore and
Moncrieff (1989) were the first to formulate an interpretation. According to the authors, the RIJ results
from a midlevel pressure gradient between the rear
and the front of the precipitating system stratiform
part (Figure 5a). In particular, the RIJ develops from
a midlevel meso low at the beginning of the stratiform part.
Weisman (1993) offers an alternative explanation in
terms of baroclinic vortices. As the stratiform part
forms, the cold pool intensifies as it spatially
extends. Thus a baroclinically generated vortices
couplet is set up at the rear of the stratiform part,
driving the RIJ (Figure 5b). One of the vortices is
close to the cold pool boundary, while the other is
linked to the buoyant airmass around the back limit
of the stratiform area. Weisman (1993) also proposes that bookend vortices can accelerate the RIJ
when they are sufficiently close to each other.
d. The Mesohigh Surge (Figure 6)

Recently, Adams-Selin et al (2010, 2013) put
forward a new proposal. They observed an intriguing phenomenon they called a mesohigh surge. It
corresponds to a sudden and local pressure
increase ahead of the convective line, just before a
bowing phase. The pressure surge implies winds
rotation perpendicular to the system orientation.
This could help in creation of a bow echo.
The mesohigh surge may be the result of a gravity
wave, and could be promoted by the following
causal chain: 1) Strengthening of the RIJ, 2)
Subsequent intensifying of evaporative cooling and
downdrafts, 3) The cold pool becomes sharper and
triggers a gravity wave which propagates ahead of

the line.
e. Bowing Development : Concluding Remarks

A bow echo seems to be the result of two kinds of
processes:
1- The RIJ may have a direct effect, putting out of
shape the convective envelope. This could be particularly true as the RIJ is focused by bookend vortices.
2- As the RIJ intensifies, evaporative cooling increases under the stratiform part, stimulating the cold
pool, and thus leading to a gravity wave. This one
produces a mesohigh surge ahead of the system,
with rotation of winds. This could help promote a
bowing phase.
European Relevance
Bow echoes were first identified in the USA (Nolan,
1959; Fujita, 1978). In Europe, the first studies
concerning bow echoes date back to the mid-nineties
(eg, Ramis et al, 1997). If interest remains less than
in USA, various studies show that no European country is immune to this phenomenon (Figure 7). Indeed,
bow echoes have been observed in Scandinavia
(Punkka et al, 2006), in Central Europe (Tuschy,
2009; Gatzen, 2004; Schmid et al, 2000), in Great
Britain (Clark, 2007; Clark et al, 2014), and in
Southern Europe (Ramis et al, 1997). Moreover, one
can identify typical American features - mesovortices, tornadoes and damaging winds and the RIJ.
Consequently, European bow echoes seem similar to
their American counterparts.
Figure 6: Meso high surge. One intriguing companion phenomenom of bowing segment apparition (Adams-Seilin et al, 2010). This
consists in a sharp pressure increase ahead of the linear convective system, just before a bowing step. Meso high surge implies winds rotation.
This one could help bow echo development.
Meteorological
Ingredients (from
Johns and Hirt, 1987;
Evans and Doswell,
2001; Burke and
Schultze, 2004; Cohen
et al, 2007)
Bow echoes can emerge all year
round. Of course, they are more
frequently observed during the
warm season from May to
August. However, this already
shows that bow echoes can
develop in various environments.
(a) The 22 July 1995 at 1511 UTC, in Switzerland.

From Schmid et al (2000)
(b) The 28 May 2009 at 1531 UTC, in Germany.

From Tuschy (2009)
(c) The 5 July 2002 at 1545 UTC, in Finland.

From Punkka et al (2006)
(d) The 19 July 2013 at 0330 UTC, in Southeastern

France. From DIRSE/PREVI (2015)
(e) Finland
(f) France
Typically, one obser ves a

dichotomy between warm
season cases and cold season
ones (table 1).
Generally, cold season bow
echoes are driven by both
strong synoptic-scale high level
forcing and fast mean flow,
compensating low CAPE
(Convective Available Potential
Energy) and low DCAPE
(Downdraft Convective Available
Potential Energy) respectively.
In summer, the situation is

reversed: the CAPE/DCAPE is
here the determining factor. The
DCAPE, and especially the CAPE
must be elevated. For instance,
CAPE has to approach 2500
Figure 7: Several European bow echoe examples :
J/kg. One explanation is that (a) in Spain (20 ms ), (b) in England, (c) in Switzerland (44 ms ), (d) in Germany (42 ms ), (e) in
CAPE and upper level forcing Finland (51 ms ) and (f) in France (42 ms ).
both control convective ascending movement, while DCAPE
Furthermore, intense bow echoes require fast flow
and mean flow both regulate wind gust magnitude.
from mid to upper level (typically 35 to 40 knots in
During warm season, if the value CAPE/DCAPE is the [4-8km] layer). This increases the probability of
fundamental, it is nonetheless not discriminating strong gusts via vertical transfer of momentum in
(table 2). In other words, high values of CAPE/DCAPE downdrafts.
are necessary, but not sufficient. Other more discrimMid to upper flow also affects the speed of the
inating ingredients have to make their contribution
convective system. Indeed strong flow involves a
First of all, the mid-troposphere has to be very fast system, thus a vigorous one: the density
unstable, that is characterized by a sharp vertical current progresses more rapidly and develops more
convergence with anterior warm air.
gradient of the temperature: at least -7.3C/km.
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
27
Parameter
Warm period
Cold season
CAPE
MUST BE HIGHT
LOW
DCAPE
HIGHTER
LOW
Mean flow
WEAKER
MUST BE STRONG
(0-6 km)
(20/30 kt)
(45/55 kt)
Deep shear
WEAKER
MUST BE STRONG
(0-6 km)
(20/30 kt)
(45/55 kt)
Hight level forcing
CAN BE WEAK
MUST BE STRONG
(2500 J/kg)
Table 1: Synthesis of some studies (Johns and Hirt, 1987; Johns,

1993; Evans and Doswell, 2001; Burke and Schultze, 2004;
Cohen et al, 2007 etc) describing climatological ingredients
relative to bow echo emergence. Seasonal dichotomy is here
emphasized.
Fast system speed is in fact particularly favoured

here. In effect, the angle between deep wind shear
and mean wind is generally weak ([0-4 km] as [0-6
km] layer). In other words, the propagative component and the advective one of the motion of the
system as a whole add up. By virtue of the RKW
theory, the direction of the wind shear provides
more or less the direction of the propagative
component. More precisely, ascending movements,
thus new cells, are promoted close to the downshear boundary of the cold pool.
According to Cohen et al (2007), a convective
system may be even accelerated as low level warm
advection and axis of maximal instability take place
in front of it, more or less aligned with mean flow.
The authors recall also that an elongated zone of
intensified instability ahead is crucial for longevity
of such a very mobile storm.
Besides, wind shear is here also a discriminating
parameter, more particularly deep shear.
Shear is not only required at the cold pool level
(up to 3 to 5 kilometers), but also at mid to upper
level. The reasons for this are not yet clear, but
the main idea is that lifting may be reinvigorated
somewhere over the cold cool (for instance,
Coniglio et al, 2006).
Figure 8: Illustration of the positive influences of an

environmental midlevel jet (around 700 to 600 hPa). A jet
permits more rapid building of a cold pool whose baroclinic
vorticity can be balanced by stronger low level shear (RKW
paradigm, 1988). Moreover environmental jet favors
triggering of the meso-scale RIJ.
Finally, beyond the shear problem, the vertical

distribution of wind may have also some important
implications for bow echo organization. An ideal
wind profile could be characterized by a jet at
midlevel (Figure 8; see also Punkka et al, 2006).
Indeed, a jet (or even a small increase of the wind at
upper level) helps a more rapid building of a cold
pool1 whose horizontal baroclinic vorticity can be
balanced by stronger low level shear (RKW paradigm), and be tilted for quicker building of bookend
vortices.
Bow echoes may be promoted via a sharper cold
pool and anticipated meso-scale RIJ triggering,
favoring an environmental jet and earlier bookend
vortices.
Parameter
DERECHO
Discriminator (Strong Bow Echoes)
Warm Season
CAPE
NO
HIGH
DCAPE
NO
HIGH
(2-6 km) Lapse rate
YES
-7.3C/km
Mean flow (0-6 km)
20/30 KT
Mean flow (6-10 km)
YES
FAST (45 KT)
Mean flow (4-8 km)
YES
FAST (35/40 KT)
Angle between (MCS motion,
YES
VERY WEAK
shear, mean wind)
MCS SPEED
YES
FAST (40 kt)
Tropospheric Shear (0-10 km)
YES
STRONG (40/50 kt)
Deep Shear (0-6 km)
YES
STRONG (30/40 kt)
Low Level shear (0-2 km)
YES
SMODERATE (20/30 kt)
Table 2: Synthesis of Cohen et al (2007)s study regarding warm

season derechos (strong bow echoes). Several parameters are
reviewed according to their discriminating character.
1- A cold pool is favoured because: 1) Stratiform development is

anticipated and 2) Dry air is injected by the rear of the system.
Convective system organization is such that perfect decoupling
exists between cold pool building and the warm conveyor.
Concluding Remarks
and Bow Echo Monitoring
Moreover, to be long-lasting, a bow echo must have

at its disposal a great deal of fuel - warm air, over a
large area ahead of it.
A bow echo is a very specific mode of organized

convection. It is more or less intermediary between
the supercell and squall line modes, having the
attributes of both but with some specificities. It is
similar to squall line linear organization with strong
straight line winds. However its scale is smaller,
going from tens to 150 km. On the other hand, bow
echoes and supercells share potential for development of vortices and tornadoes. Moreover, bow
echo meso-vortices have mechanisms which look
like those often prevailing within supercells.
One notices also the existence of an ideal vertical

wind profile, characterized by a jet at midlevel. The
advantages of such a profile for bow echoes are that
the cold pool, bookend vortices and rear inflow jet
are clearly promoted.
As with a squall line and a supercell, a bow echo is a

very dangerous kind of storm, generally associated to
very strong gusts, typically more than 25/30 ms-1.
Despite large improvements in forecasting, prediction of such storm remains a true challenge. Today,
the ingredients for bow echo formation are better
known. They strongly depend on season: high CAPE
(especially)/DCAPE during the warm season, while
high level forcing and strong mean flow dominate
along the cold season. During the warm season, the
factor CAPE/DCAPE is nonetheless not discriminating. Discriminating parameters are rather midlevel
vertical gradient of temperature, deep shear, mean
wind at mid and upper levels, and orientation
between mean flow and shear. More precisely,
warm season bow echoes environment is more
sheared, faster, with an alignment between wind
shear and mean flow. In this environment, fast
convective systems are promoted, having more
potential to be severe.
Numerical forecasting has made great progress.

Finest mesh (< 5 km) models have now the capacity
to explicitly forecast convective systems like bow
echoes, sometimes with great realism (see Figure
9). This new generation of models greatly helps
forecasters.
And observation systems permit an efficient monitoring of convective situations in real time. At first,
radar imagery and monitoring of convective merging
can provide some anticipation regarding bow echo
formation. Indeed, Klimowski et al. (2003) observe
that bow echoes are preceded by thunderstorm
mergers roughly 4050 percent of the time (see
also figure 2)!
Furthermore, radar observation can give valuable
clues regarding severity of bow echoes: 1) The Rear
Inflow Notch may provide indication of a descending RIJ (and risk of very strong gusts, Figure 10a); 2)
Rolling-up at the extremities of a bow echo may
reveal book-end vortices (Figure 10a), implying
acceleration of the RIJ and risk of tornadoes; 3)
Existence of an important stratiform part may
suggest building of a very sharp cold pool, also an
index of severity (risk of strong winds as tornadoes,
Figure 10b).
(b) WRF-ARW reflectivity from the 8 May, 2009 over

Missouri (USA)
(a) AROME reflectivity from the 19 July, 2011 over southern
France
Figure 9:
Simulated
refelectivity
produced by (a)
AROME, on July
19th, 2011 over
Southern France;
(b) WRF-ARW on
May 8th, 2009
over Missouri
(USA).
29
(a) Bow Echo

case : Night
from 6 till 7
september
2005 (southern
Var)
Figure 10: Radar imagery is a powerful tool for monitoring bow

echoes. In (a), the radar imagery provides clues of midlevel meso-scale
vortex and Rear Inflow Jet (notice the Rear Inflow Notch). In (b), this one
shows an important stratiform part which can be the clue of an sharp
cold pool. Of course, ground level observation network can give also
valuable information, concerning for instance the cold pool and gusts
occurrence (c and d): bow echo case of December 10th, 2000, over the
Nord-Pas de Calais region.
Ground level observations can help complete a

characterization of bow echoes. Thus, a sharp
decrease (increase) in temperature (pressure), or a
strong wind gust, may both suggest a prominent
cold pool and a severe bow echo (Figures 10c and
10d) and can alert forecasters about this dangerous
phenomenon.
(b) Bow Echo
case : Night
from 6 till 7
september
2005
(Tyrrhenian
Sea)
In the relatively near future, French forecasters will

make more use of real time Doppler Radar data.
These will permit direct access to dynamic attributes and the dangers of bow echoes: RIJ, book-end
vortices, maybe some large mesoscale low
level vortices, and of course nearby surface wind. A
better characterization should give better anticipation of these events, more relevant alerts, and finer
monitoring of a convective situation.
References
(c) Bow Echo
case :
10 December
2000, temporal
evolution
of 2 m
Temperature,
Mean Sea
Level Pressure
and 10 m Gust.
(d) Bow Echo

case : 10
December
2000 at 14
local hour
(over Nord-Pas
de Calais
Region)
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Mesoscale surface pressure and temperature features
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138, 212-227
Adams-Selin, R., and R.H. Johnson, 2013 :
Examination of gravity waves associated with the 13
March 2003 bow echo, Weath. Forecast., vol. 28,
3735-3756,
Atkins, N.T., C. Bouchard, R.W. Przybylinski, R.J. Trapp,
and G. Schmocker, 2005: Damaging surface wind
mechanisms within the 10 June 2003 Saint Louis Bow
Echo during BAMEX, Month. Weath. Rev., vol. 133,
2275-2296.
Bryan, G., D. Ahijevych, C. Davis, M. Weisman, and
R. Przybylinski, 2004: An assessment of convective
system structure, cold pool properties, and environmental shear using observations from BAMEX.
Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis,
MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.2.
Burke, P.C., and D.M. Schultz : A 4-yr climatology of
cold-season bow echoes over the continental united
states, Weather and Forecasting, vol. 19, 1061-1074.
Clark, M., 2007: The southern England tornadoes of
20 December 2006, Tornadoes and storm research
organization, sumo.
Clark, M., K. A. Browning, C. J. Morcrette, A. M. Blyth,

R. M. Forbes, B. Brooks and F. Perry, 2014 : The evolution of an MCS over southern England. Part 1:
Observations, Quat. Journ. of Roy. Meteor., vol. 140,
439-467.
Cohen, A. E., M.C. Coniglio, S.F. Corfidi, and S.J.
Corfidi, 2007 : Discriminating of mesoscale convective system environment using sounding observations, Weather and Forecasting, vol. 12, 1045-1062.
Coniglio, M.C., L.J. Wicker, and D.J. Stensrud, 2006 :
Effect of upper-level shear on the structure and maintenance of strong, quasi-linear mesoscale convective
system, J. Atmos. Sci., vol. 63, 1231-1252.
Evans, J.S., and C.A. Doswell, 2001: Examination of
derecho environments using proximity soundings,
Weather and Forecasting, vol. 16, 329-342.
Fujita, T.T., 1978: Manual of downburst identification
for project Nimrod. Satellite and Mesometeorology
Research Paper 156, Dept. Of Geophysical Sciences,
University of Chicago, 104 pp.
Funk, T.W., K.E. Darmofal, J.D. Kirkpatrick, V.L. DeWald,
R.W. Przybylinski, G.K. Schmocker et Y-J Lin, 1999 :
Storm reflectivity and mesocyclone evolution associated with the 15 April 1994 squall line over Kentucky
and southern Indiana, Weath. and Forecasting, vol.
14, 976-993
Gatzen, C., 2004: A derecho in Europe: Berlin, 10 July
2002, Weather and Forecasting, vol. 19, 639-645.
Johns, R.H., and W.D. Hirt, 1987: Derechos : widespread convectively induced windsorms, Weather and
Forecasting, vol. 2, 32-49.
Klimowski, B.A., M.J. Bunkers, M.R. Hjelmfelt and J.N.
Covert, 2003: Severe convective windstorms over the
northern high plains of the United States, Weather
and Forecasting, vol. 18, 502-519.
Klimowski, B.A., Hjelmfelt, M.R., and M.J. Bunkers,
2004: Radar observations of the early evolution of
bow echoes, Weather and Forecasting, vol. 19, 727734.
Lafore, J.-Ph., and M.W. Moncrieff, 1989: A numerical
investigation of the organization and interaction of
the convective and stratiform regions of tropical
squall lines, J. of the Atmos. Sci., vol. 46, 521-544.
Nolan, R.H., 1959: A radar pattern associated with
tornadoes, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 40, 277-279.
Punkka, A.J., J. Teittinen, and R.H. Johns, 2006:
Synoptic and mesoscale analysis of a high latitude
Derecho-Severe Thunderstorm outbreak in Finland on
5 July 2002, Wea. Forecasting, 21, 752-763.
Ramis, C., J. Arus, and J.M. Lopez, 1997: Two cases of
severe weather in Catalonia (Spain) : an observational
study, Meteorol. Appl., vol. 4, 207-217.
Rotunno, R., J.B. Klemp, and M.L. Weisman, 1988: A
theory for strong, long-lived squall lines, J. Atmos.
Sci., vol. 45, 463-485.
Schmid, W., H.H. Schiesser, M. Furger and M. Jenni,

2000 : The origin of severe winds in a tornadic BowEcho storm over northern Switzerland, Month. Wea.
Rev., vol. 128, 192-207.
Tessendorf, S.A., et R.J. Trapp, 2000: On the climatological distribution of tornadoes within quasi-linear
convective systems. Preprints, 20th Conf.on Severe
Local Storms, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 134137.
Tuschy, H, 2009: Examination of severe thunderstorms in Central Europe, Thesis (Master), University
of Innsbrck, 204 p.
Wakimoto, R.M., H.V. Murphey, A. Nester, D.P.
Jorgensen, and N. Atkins, 2006 : High winds generated by bow echoes. Part I : overview of the Omaha bow
echo 5 july 2003 storm during BAMEX, Month. Weath.
Rev., vol. 134, 2793-2812.
Wakimoto, R.M., H.V. Murphey, A. Nester, D.P.
Jorgensen, and N. Atkins, 2006 : High winds generated by bow echoes. Part II: The relationship between
the mesovortices and damaging straight-line winds,
Month. Weath. Rev., vol. 134, 2813-2829.
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numerically simulated convective storms on vertical
wind shear and buoyancy, Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 504520.
Weisman, M.L., 1993: The genesis of severe, longlived bow echoes, J. of the Atmos Sci., vol 50, 646670.
Weisman, M.L., and C.A. Davis, 1998: Mechanisms for
the generation of mesoscale vortices within quasilinear convective systems, J. of the Atmos Sci., vol 55,
2603-2622.
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mesovortices within squall lines and bow echoes.
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31
Simulation Training
A tool for forecasters and staff
Jos Diepeveen, Heleen ter Pelkwijk, Frans Debie, John Kambeel, KNMI
Introduction
Simulation is extensively used for educational
purposes, most frequently by way of adaptive hypermedia. It is often used in the training of civilian and
military personnel. This usually occurs when it is
prohibitively expensive or simply too dangerous to
allow trainees to use the real equipment in the real
world. In such situations they spend time learning
valuable lessons in a "safe" virtual environment yet
living a lifelike experience (or at least this is the
goal). Often the advantage is to permit mistakes
during training for a safety-critical system.
Simulation training can also be useful in the case of
forecasting the weather.
content and their working methods/routines.

Furthermore human factors such as communication
and decision-making can be monitored. The large
benefit of this way of training is the creation of a
zero-measurement: All forecasters operate under the
same conditions in the same environment.
Set up
In the schematic below the set up of the simulator
is simply shown. To maintain pressure during the
training, time runs twice as fast as in real life .
Higher speeds are also possible but have not
The Concept
The learning process can be divided
into three phases:
1) The Education phase: gaining
knowledge
2) The Training phase: transforming
knowledge into skills
3) The Practice phase: applying and
reinforcing skills in near real-time
situations under a lot of pressure
Obviously, the third stage is a
phase in which simulation training
could be helpful. At KNMI a wish
had risen to examine all three
stages of the learning process.
Previously, education had tended
to get stuck in phase 1 and 2. This
article will briefly discuss the third
phase.
With use of a simulator, the goal is
to examine two aspects of forecasters work, namely the meteorological
Image 2: The testing environment

of the forecaster
Image 1: Schematic overview simulators set-up
proven to be comfortable. The forecaster works in a

separate room with the simulator and a system to
issue forecasts as would normally be done. Also a
telephone is present where incoming questions from
customers are brought into the training. In the
control room the student is monitored and time of
action and kind of action are registered. The control
room is also the place where all the incoming information (injections) originates.
Technical details
The Meteo-Simulator at KNMI is an update of
Cloudy Camel (Pelkwijk, Higgings, Mills)
Initially it was designed specifically for KNMI, but
now it is also usable for other institutes. It is based
on php/jquery&javascript and adaption to php
requires a webserver (local or company webserver),
some of which can be taken freely from the internet.
Experiences
At KNMI we have developed experience in simulation training over the last few years. In 2014 the
training was evaluated with the use of the newly
designed Meteo Simulator.
The chosen meteorological situation was not a trivial case, the main issues were:
- Model analysis of the position of a low was wrong
(about 30-40 nm, image 3)
- Winds and precipitation prediction were very
uncertain. (image 3)
- A chemical accident had occurred in an industrial
area with questions about the dispersion with an
uncertain wind-forecast.
Evaluation and recommendations

We realise that this method of training is still in an
early stage at KNMI, and we expect to develop
further in the coming years. The first results are
promising and satisfying in many ways.
Participants feedback was very good. Also the
above-mentioned fact that a zero-measurement can
be made gives a quite good impression of the variation of skills within the group tested. This helped
very much in finding out strengths and weaknesses
and where the focus for further education should be.
Also the use of a realistic setting within the simulator was very much appreciated. However, objective
assessment is rather difficult and should better be
done by a third party.
Sources/references:
The subjects for training were shift leaders and
senior forecasters:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation#Simulation_
in_education_and_training
- Analysis & guidance

Understanding of the situation
Recognition of uncertainties
- Procedures
- Products
- Dealing with unexpected situations (chemical accidents)
- Handing over to the next shift (presentation)
Image 3: Screenshot of the Meteo

Simulator. In the left upper corner the
simulation time is running twice normal speed.
In the upper row, data sources can be selected.
The sources are refreshed automatically as
simulator time progresses. In this screenshot
the main models used at KNMI are shown.
The forecast isobars and wind speed at
a certain time (selected in orange in the left
column) for Hirlam and Harmonie are shown.
33
A Global Forecast Quality Score

for Administrative Purposes
D. Cattani, M. Matter, MeteoSwiss
Introduction
Since 1985, MeteoSwiss has used a global score for
systematically assessing the basic weather forecasts issued by the regional forecasting centres.
This assessment is done for two main reasons.
Firstly, it is used for administrative purposes as the
weather centres are expected to communicate in a
simple way to the general public and to the government the evolution of the quality of their forecasts.
On the other hand, the forecasters need to know
the performance of their predictions in order to
improve them. In 2013, we developed a new verification scheme, called COMFORT (for COntinuous
MeteoSwiss FORecast qualiTy), which also accounts
for benefits from the evolution of the forecasting
system as well as of the present automated observation networks.
COMFORT is a global measure of accuracy which
verifies deterministic forecasts of quantities representing sensible weather in Switzerland, namely:
precipitation (without distinction of its type),
sunshine duration, minimum and maximum
temperatures, and wind speed. Specifically,
COMFORT assesses the generic forecasts which are edited numerically by
the forecasters. These forecasts serve
then as a basis for generating a variety
of products, ranging from web apps to
agriculture or support for TV broadcasts.
A requirement that COMFORT had
ideally to fulfil was to encode in a
single value the general forecast quality, together with the capability to
provide intelligible explanation for a
high/low global score, typically
computed over a long period and over
a large territory, to people that are
neither experts in verification, nor forecasters. A way of conciliating these
conflicting requirements was to make
it possible to focus on specific periods
and/or geographical areas in order to
detect and analyse forecasts whose accuracy deviates from the average. Also, forecasts for all timeranges are verified using the same spatial and
temporal resolutions, which allows comparison
across different lead times. In parallel, COMFORT
can be applied to NWP forecasts, typically the
First Guess predictions which initialize the forecast editing tool used by MeteoSwiss bench forecasters, making it possible to measure forecasters
added value with respect to NWP.
Data Used in the Verification

Bench forecasters working at MeteoSwiss edit their
predictions with a graphical interface named the
Matrix Editor. These are either numerical values or
categories (the latter only for relative sunshine
which is edited according to five classes) and represent deterministic forecasts for a number of
regions. The spatial resolution of a forecast edited
in the Matrix Editor depends on the forecasts timerange. The Swiss territory is partitioned into 27
regions for short-range forecasts (time-ranges D1
and D2), into 11 regions for medium-range fore-
Figure 1: Matrix tool

Tool used by the forecaster by which they modify a first guess, with a station
corresponding to each region. Sunshine duration, precipitation, temperature minimum
and maximum and wind are forecast.
casts (time-ranges from D3 to D5) and into 6 regions

for long-range forecasts (time-ranges D6 and D7).
Each region is assigned a reference station, as well
as a number of observation stations, each reference
station being an observation station itself.
old values that we have defined for the maximum

temperature are: = 1 C and = 6 C. Between
these thresholds, the accuracy of the forecast is
measured as for a continuous quantity (for instance
using mean absolute error).
The verified quantities are of two types: temperature

and wind speed are defined in the Matrix Editor as
local quantities, which means that the predicted
values attributed by forecasters hold for the reference stations only; they are thus verified using
observations from the reference stations only. In
contrast, precipitation and relative sunshine are
defined as regional quantities which means that the
predicted values represent spatial averages over the
forecast. Regional quantities are verified using averaged observations over the corresponding region.
For the verification of relative sunshine, mean observations for a given region are obtained by averaging
measures from a number of representative stations
situated in the region. For the verification of precipitation, we benefit from a multi-sensor observation
scheme, called CombiPrecip [Sideris et al., 2011].
This tool provides precipitation estimates at a very
high spatial and temporal resolution using a combination of a continuous field of precipitation provided
by radar images and of sparser measurements
provided by the automatic rain gauge network.
Regional mean amounts used for the verification are
then obtained from the high resolution grids by
taking the average of the values at the grid-points
belonging to a given region.
This approach explained above can be applied independently to each verified quantity, which in our
case are:
Verification Principles
As mentioned in the introduction, we consider deterministic forecasts only. For any verified quantity, the
forecasts accuracy is split into three qualifications :
correct, useful and useless. These categories are
defined by two thresholds that should be seen as
tunable parameters which depend on the verification
context. Both thresholds are defined once for all
when setting up the verification framework. The first
threshold defines a tolerance interval around the
forecast value. This threshold should be seen as an
estimation of the maximum error below which a forecast is assumed as completely correct. The second
threshold is the maximum error beyond which the
forecast is considered too erroneous to be of any
value, and defines the utility interval around the
forecast value. Deciding whether a forecast is correct
or useless remains largely subjective and depends
on the verification context. For instance, the thresh-
1. precipitation (denoted by P): daily amount [mm]

2. relative sunshine (denoted by RS) with respect to
the maximum daily sunshine duration in [%]
3. minimum daily temperature (denoted by Tmin) in
[ C]
4. maximum daily temperature (denoted by Tmax) in
[ C]
5. wind speed at 10m above ground level (denoted
by V ): maximum hourly average between 6am and
6pm in [kt].
A partial score Si is defined for each of the previous
parameters. For all quantities but precipitation, the
score between the tolerance and the utility thresholds decreases linearly. Also, for precipitation the
tolerance and utility intervals depend on precipitation intensity, reflecting the assumption that an error
of a given magnitude has a smaller impact on the
quality of the forecast when the amount of rainfall is
large than when it is small or equal to zero (Fig 2).
Before combining scores for different quantities into
a single value, since errors might be of different
magnitudes depending on the verified quantity, it is
necessary to rescale them on a common scale. A
score valued between 0 and 100 with higher values
corresponding to better forecast accuracy is intuitive. The global COMFORT score is then obtained as
a weighted sum of partial scores computed for each
verified quantity:
COMFORT=pSp+RSSRS+TminSTmin+TmaxSTmax+VSV
where p, RS, Tmin, Tmax, V are the weight of

the partial scores for respectively precipitation, relative sunshine, minimum and maximum temperatures and wind speed.
Figure 2: Behaviour
of the partial score for
precipitation with respect
to the observation, for
three different values
of the forecast;
3, 8 and 20 mm.
35
regional weather conditions, more

importance might be given to this
parameter.
Tests
A significant piece of the work related
to the development of the COMFORT
score was devoted to simulations
with the aim of testing with real data
different properties of the score such
as its spatial and temporal variability,
its sensitivity to perturbations of
different kinds, its ability to reflect
theoretical enhancements to the forecasts, and its robustness against
hedging. Each quantity involved in
the verification was considered sepa Figure 3: Example of daily analysis with the scores for precipitation, sunshine
rately. The tested forecasts were
duration, temperature minimum and maximum and wind for the forecaster (VAL)
predictions edited by forecasters,
and first guess (FG). In the centre is the score for each parameter and underneath
First Guess forecasts obtained from
the global score.
different numerical outputs, and in
addition different reference forecasts:
The tuning of the parameters and in each partial persistence for temperatures and various poorscore can be made following different approaches, man predictions for relative sunshine and precipidepending on the verification context. For instance, tation.
in a customer-oriented system, thresholds might be
imposed by each specific client according to their The robustness of the score against hedging was
requirements. The thresholds that we have fixed for tested by considering different no-skill or no
our verification purposes are mostly empirical and risk forecasts in order to check that there is no
try to represent, for each verified parameter, reason- obvious systematic way of obtaining better longable estimations of what a correct, useful or useless term results, at least for short-range predictions, by
forecast for the general public is. Also, we have forecasting some predefined scheme rather than
made the choice of setting the same thresholds for best-judgement.
all regions in Switzerland as this allows easier explanation and comparison of the forecast accuracy from Simulations were also made with the aim of estimating COMFORTs sensitivity to different theoretione region to another.
cal forecast enhancements. On one hand, this was
The weights i, which should always sum to 1, repre- useful to answer a question asked by the
sent the relative importance of each verified quantity MeteoSwiss leadership when fixing quantitative
in the global score and can also be adjusted according to the verification context. We give a similar
weight to all verified parameters except for wind: 0.3
for precipitation, 0.3 for sunshine, 0.15 for Tmin as
well as for Tmax, and 0.1 for wind. The main reason
for setting such a smaller weight for wind is the difficulty of having representative observations especially in mountainous regions which prevail in the
country. We thus have made the choice of verifying
wind speed only at selected stations which capture
Figure 4: Quarterly score communicated to the government. Solid
the dominant winds blowing in Switzerland. For
lines represents the global score performed by the forecaster within
countries with larger flatlands or coastlines, where the 3 weather centres in Switzerland, and dashed line represent the
measures might be more representative of the global to achieve for 3 forecast ranges.
medium and long-term objectives for the score. On

the other hand, we aimed to show that the
COMFORT score was able to capture and reward
forecast adjustments based on new incoming
weather information (new NWP output, new or additional observations, etc.). This should encourage
forecasters to issue their forecasts according to
their best available judgement.
Communication
Every quarter, the global score COMFORT obtained
by three administrative regions for the elapsed period is communicated to the leadership and to the
government, allowing them to monitor the overall
evolution of the forecast quality. Fig 4 shows the
quarterly evolution of the score for day +1, day +3
and day +5; the dashed lines represent the goal
fixed by the government.
In parallel, regular feedback in the form of daily
bulletins verifying in greater detail individual forecasts is automatically delivered to forecasters (see
Fig 3). These bulletins show the partial scores of the
forecasters predictions (VAL) as well as scores
achieved by the NWP First Guess forecast (FG) for
all forecast regions and for a given day. In particular, this allows forecasters to see what value they
added to NWP on a concrete occasion. For each verified quantity, mean values for the whole responsibility region are provided, as well as a global score
for that day.
From this daily feedback, results over a given period

(a season or a year) can be gathered together under
the form of periodic analysis to find out the
strengths and weaknesses of the forecasts and,
whenever possible, to provide guidelines to forecasters.
Fig 5a,5b show the scores of precipitation and
sunshine duration for the summer 2014 for respectively day +1 and day +3.
Reference
Sideris, I. V., Gabella, M., Erdin, R., and Germann, U.
(2011). Real-time radar-raingauge merging using
spatiotemporal co-kriging with external drift in the
alpine terrain of Switzerland. Quarterly Journal of
the Royal Meteorological Society, 00:122.
Letestu A.-C. The New Production Process at
MeteoSwiss. The European forecaster, 15, may
2010.
Cattani, D., Faes A., Giroud Gaillard M., Matter M.,
Global Forecast Quality Score for Administrative
Purposes. To appear in MAUSAM (July 2015)
Figure 5a, 5b:

Partial COMFORT
score for precipitation
and sunshine
duration calculated
for summer 2014
(june, july, august)
for respectively
D1 and D3
37
Severe Freezing Rain in Slovenia

Janez Markosek, Environmental Agency, Slovenia
Introduction
Synoptic Situation
At the end of January and at the beginning of February

2014, severe and long-lasting freezing rain affected a
major part of Slovenia. Some days before, a cold
airmass had been advected from the NE, but later a
warm airmass flow started from the S at middle levels
between 1200 and 2000 m above sea level. In four
days in the region of Postojna, where the maximum
damage occurred, more than 150 mm of precipitation
was measured. The highest level of weather warnings
(red) were issued by the NMS for all five regions in
Slovenia. The total damage to forests and forest
roads, power and railway infrastructure and the economy was estimated to be 400 million EUR.
During the period of this severe freezing rain event

there was a deep Low in NW Europe with a
secondary Low over the Northern Mediterranean,
and a strong High pressure field over Western
Russia. A day or two before the event, the
secondary Low was deepening and at 850 hPa the
warm advection had started (see Figure 1). Such a
synoptic situation usually brings heavy snowfall in
NW parts of Slovenia and severe freezing rain in
some other places.
In Figures 2 to 4 the measurements of radio soundings over Ljubljana are shown. On 30 January 2014
Figure 1: 500hPa geopotential and MSL pressure field over Europe and North Atlantic (left) and 850hPa temperature field (right) on 30 and
31 January 2014. Source: www.wetterzentrale.de
Two days later, on 2 February, the situation over

Ljubljana was nearly the same, though the cold
advection from the E below 1000 m was even
stronger, Figure 4.
Behaviour of NWP models
Figure 2: Temperature profile (blue line), dewpoint temperature

profile (red) and wind profile over central Slovenia (Ljubljana) on 30
January 2014..
the temperature was below zero deg. C in all levels

through the whole troposphere, and on that day
moderate to heavy snowfall occurred. A day later, on
31 January, the air temperature was above zero in
deep layer between 1200 and 1700 m, see Fig. 3.
The NWP models were quite good in forecasting the

precipitation amounts, but less good in forecasting
the type of precipitation. But forecasters on duty
reacted quickly and in good time when latest runs of
numerical models showed warm advection in upper
levels from the south (Figure 5). The model's weakness was that it tended to warm the lower levels and
cool the upper levels in with increasing forecast time
(Figure 6), which might give the forecaster the impression that the freezing rain should turn to snow, which
in reality did not happen. In such cases especially,
having a vertical temperature profile measured by
radio soundings was a great help to forecasters in
providing good forecasts of precipitation type.

January 2014.
Figure 5: ALADIN/SI 6-hour forecast Horizontal Cross-section SW

to NE valid for 18 UTC on 1 February 2014.

February 2014.
In the days after 2 February, the High over Eastern Europe weakened
and Slovenia became more and more under the influence of the Low
over Western Europe. The precipitation was weak and the moderate
SW wind finally pushed out the cold air from the lower layers.
Figure 6: Temperature BIAS (colour scale in K) the strength of

the inversion is diminishing during forecast
39
Issued Warnings
Due to heavy precipitation predicted by different NWP
models (Figure 7 all showing the 72 hours accumulation in the time period 31 January 00 UTC to 3
February 00 UTC), the NMS issued many severe
weather warnings starting with the first warning on
the morning of 30 January. In the first warning only
heavy snowfall for some regions was mentioned, but
on the evening of the same day, severe freezing rain
was added into the warning text. In the following
days severe weather warnings were issued twice a
day and, in accordance to the text, the appropriate
colour on the Meteoalarm map was used. The most
severe situation was predicted for Sunday, 2 February
2014, when for all five regions in Slovenia the highest
level of weather warnings were declared (Figure 8).
Figure 8: Meteoalarm chart valid for 2 February 2014.
Precipitation Amount and Damage

Caused by Freezing Rain
The precipitation started on 30 January, spreading
from West to East. A day later the precipitation was
intense and freezing rain started in some regions.
On 1 February in the first half of the day precipitation
was weak, but intensified in the afternoon. Intense
precipitation occurred also on 2 February.
Precipitation accumulation for four days (30 January
to 3 February 2014) is shown in Figure 9.
Figure 7: Predicted 72-hours accumulation of precipitation from

different NWP models (ALADIN/SI, DWD/GME, ECMWF, NCEP/GFS) in
the time period from 31 January 00 UTC to 3 February 00 UTC.
There are two maxima with more than 300 mm

precipitation accumulation. The first one is in the
western part of Slovenia, in the area of the automatic weather station at Bovec, where there are high
mountains and a narrow valley. In the mountains it
was snowing, but in the valley mostly raining. The
second maximum is located in the S-SW of Slovenia,
where the automatic weather station Ilirska Bistrica
is located. In this area precipitation was only in the
Figure 9: Measured 4 days total precipitation (30 January to 3

February)
form of rain, and some minor flooding occurred. In

all other regions of the western half of Slovenia except the most SW part - precipitation amounts of
40 to 200 mm were reported and damage caused by
freezing rain occurred. The most affected region was
around the town of Postojna, where 165 mm of
precipitation was measured, nearly all in the form of
freezing rain (Figure 10).
Figure 11: Damage in forests and on power and railway infrastructure, Feb. 2014.
Figure 10: Freezing rain in Postojna 2 Feb. 2014.
The damage was very great in the forests and forest

roads, and also on power system infrastructure
(Figure 11). Some parts of the most affected regions
were without electrical power for up to ten days.
International help in form of electric generators was
necessary.
The railway infrastructure in particular the connection between Ljubljana and the coast (Koper) - was
severely damaged. Pylons of power lines were
broken and for more than a year only diesel locomotives maintained rail transport from and to the Port
of Koper.
41
The estimated total damage caused by this long lasting freezing rain was around 400 million EUR. As can
be seen in Figure 12, the major part of Slovenia was
damaged by freezing rain/snow and a small region
in the South by flooding.
Conclusion
References:
1. Meteorological archive of EARS
2. Daily bulletins of Civil protection authorities
3. http://www.wetterzentrale.de
4. Tim Hewson: Current activities at ECMWF related
to severe weather prediction (presentation at WGCEF
meeting in Geneve 2014)
A severe freezing rain has hit Slovenia in the last

days of January and the first days of February 2014,
leading to significant damage to forests, and railway
and power system infrastructure. The highest level of
weather warning was issued for all five regions of
Slovenia. In the most affected region more than 150
mm of precipitation in form of freezing rain occurred.
The issued warnings helped the civil protection
authorities to organize the work in all affected areas.
International help in form of electric generators was
needed.
A discussed case of severe freezing rain has led to
some improvements in modelling of precipitation
type also in the big centres like ECMWF.
Figure 12: Territory with material damage due to freezing rain or snow (purple) and due to flooding (blue cross-hatching).
Source: Daily Bulletin of Civil Protection Authorities.
Synoptic analysis of the Catastrophic Floods

in SE Europe, May 2014
Nataa Strelec Mahovi, Tanja Renko, Vlasta Tuti and Tanja Troi
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ)
Introduction
Analysis of the weather conditions
Over the past decade we have been witnessing

increasingly frequent occurrence of catastrophic
floods in Europe, caused by extreme precipitation
events. One of these was the flood that occurred in
east Croatia, north-west Bosnia and Herzegovina and
central Serbia in mid-May 2014. It will most certainly
be remembered as one of the most devastating
events, as it was the worst flooding in the region in
120 years of record-keeping, with very large areas
affected (Figure 1). More than 60 people died, over
100,000 homes and structures were destroyed and
thousands of livestock animals were killed (Figure 2).
The water caused 3000 landslides in the area, but
also exposed or moved many landmines left from
1990s war. The situation urged the Croatian
Government to proclaim the event as a catastrophe,
the first since Croatia's independence. In the region, a
state of emergency was declared in 18 towns and
cities, including Belgrade in Serbia. The Serbian Prime
Minister declared this the greatest flooding disaster
ever.
Heavy rainfall in the period between 11 and 17 May

in east Croatia and neighbouring Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Serbia exceeded the highest
amounts ever recorded in some areas. In many
places, rainfall amounts recorded during only 7 days
(Figure 3) greatly exceeded average monthly precipitation for the entire month of May, and at some
stations 3 months worth of rain fell in these few
days. The highest rainfall measured in east Croatia
was 164 litres per square meter. At some stations in
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia total precipitation over this period exceeded 200 mm and in
Bosnia even reached 300 mm.
Figure3: Total precipitation between 11 and 17 May 2014, NOAA

Climate Prediction Center (source: Wikipedia)
Figure 1: Map of flooded areas during May 2014 flood (source:

Wikipedia)
Besides the sudden and extremely heavy rainfall, the

situation was additionally worsened by the fact that
April 2014 was an extremely rainy month in most
regions, and so was the beginning of May. Compared
to climatology, April 2014 was wet or very wet across
the area of east Croatia. The analysis of the precipitation amounts for April 2014, given in percentages (%)
Figure 2: Catastrophic consequences of May 2014 flood in SE
Europe (Source: WWW)
43
of climatological average (1961 -1990) (figure 4),

shows that monthly precipitation quantities at most of
the analysed stations were above average.
Besides extreme precipitation, in most of the areas

strong winds were also observed, with storm and
even hurricane speed gusts. Windstorms caused
damage along the Adriatic coast, but also in the
continental areas. At the Croatian Adriatic coast wind
gusts reached up to 42 m/s, whereas over the northern parts of Croatia very strong northerly winds, with
constant gusts of 15 to 22 m/s and maximum gusts
of 28 m/s, blew for 24 hours (Figure 5).
Figure 4: Deviation of precipitation from the climatological

average in April 2014
In Slavonski Brod, a station next to the Sava river,

close to the area affected by floods, total monthly
precipitation in April 2014 reached 200% of the
climatological average and the rainy weather continued at the beginning of May. Therefore, large quantities of rain poured over the soil that was already
saturated with water. Water levels in the rivers were
extremely high and the Sava river, together with
affluent rivers Vrbas, Bosna and Drina, flooded large
areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia
with catastrophic consequences.
Figure 6: AT 500 (green) and temperature advection at 700 hPa

(red: warm, blue: cold) from the ECMWF model, overlaid on Meteosat
10 IR 10.8 m image on 11th May 2014, 1800 UTC
Figure 7: AT 500 (green) and temperature at 500 hPa (ECMWF),

overlaid on Meteosat 10 IR 10.8 m image on 12th May 2014, 1800 UTC
Synoptic Situation
Figure 5: Maximum wind gusts measured by automatic stations in

Croatia. a) for 13 and 14 May at Krk bridge (green), Pag bridge (blue)
and Maslenica bridge (red) in the North Adriatic; b) for 15 and 16 May
at the station Zagreb Gri
In the period between 12th and 15th May an upperlevel pressure trough was moving from the west of
Europe towards the southeast. The axis of the
trough, and with it also the surface front, moved
across central Europe and the Balkans during the
night of 11th and the morning of 12th May. After the
front passed over central Europe and the Balkan
Peninsula, the cold air from the north of the continent arrived (Figure 6).
At the same time, in the strong westerly flow from

the Atlantic, large quantities of humid air arrived
(visible in figure 7 west of the Alps). By the end of
the 12th May, a new upper-level trough formed west
of the Bay of Biscay (figure 7). It moved very quickly
eastwards with very strong westerly winds and was
getting deeper during the 13th May (figure 8).
The system was receiving humidity from the

Mediterranean and the Black Sea, while pulling cold
air from the north. During 15 May, the centre of the
surface low was over the central parts of the Balkan
peninsula. The cyclone remained quasi-stationary
for more than 3 days over SE Europe. Precipitation
was additionally enhanced by the orography of the
Bosnian mountains with many thunderstorms
embedded in the cyclonic cloud system.
Because of the northeasterly flow in the upper
levels, the cyclonic vortex slowly returned westwards, while at the same time the anticyclone ridge
(Figure 10) grew stronger.
Figure 8: AT 500 (green), isotachs at 300 hPa (yellow) and

cyclonic vorticity advection at 300 hPa (red) from ECMWF model,
overlaid on Meteosat 10 IR 10.8 m image on 13th May 2014, 0600 UTC
The process intensified when the upper-level trough

crossed over the Alps. A surface low formed over
northern Italy and the Adriatic on the 13 th May,
moving slowly towards NE. During the 14th May, the
trough closed into a deep cyclonic vortex, stretching
almost through the entire troposphere, with the
cyclone axis being placed almost vertically, so that
the centre of the upper-level low in the highest layers
was almost exactly above the centre of the surface
cyclone. This contributed to the intensity and stationarity of the entire system. The cyclone reached its
maximum on 15th and 16th May, while its centre shifted only slightly towards northeast (Figure 9).
Figure 10: Surface air pressure analysis and the position of frontal
systems on 15th May 2014, 0600 UTC (Source: DWD)
Under such circumstances, large differences in the

surface air pressure developed, causing, besides
heavy rainfall, very strong winds in many regions,
with gusts locally reaching hurricane force. Very
intense development in the cyclone led to formation
of a thick cloud layer and heavy precipitation in the
area of northern Croatia, but also extremely heavy
and long-lasting precipitation in most of Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Serbia. This was mostly rain, but
snow also fell in the mountains. In some places in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, the snowfall was quite
heavy. During the 16th May, the centre of the upperlevel cyclone was located over Serbia (figure 11),
weakening towards the end of the day.
Forecasts and warnings
Figure 9: AT 500 (green) and MSLP (black) from ECMWF model

overlaid on METEOSAT 10 10.8 m image on 15th May 2014, 0600 UTC.
The Meteorological and Hydrological Service of

Croatia (DHMZ) and corresponding meteorological
services of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia
warned about the extreme weather conditions to the
best of their abilities. The damage and casualties
caused by floods would have been even worse had
the event not been forecast on time.
45
Figure 11: Meteosat

10 Airmass RGB image
on 16th May 2014,
00 UTC, showing a
deep low system over
SE Europe
Figure 12: The

ECMWF forecast
of 24-hour
precipitation for
14th, 15th, 16th and
17th May
Figure 13:
a) Aladin forecast
of 24-hour
precipitation for
the period from
06 UTC 15th till 06
UTC 16th May;
b) interpolated
measured
precipitation for
the period from
06 UTC 15th till
06 UTC 16th May
Numerical models captured the process correctly in

space and time but slightly underestimated the
precipitation intensity. The ECMWF model forecast
well the precipitation quantity in the period from the
14th to 17th May (Figure 12), dark violet areas denoting
amounts 50-100 mm.
Similarly, for the Croatian region, the Aladin LAM run
locally at DHMZ forecast 24-hour precipitation of
between 20 and 100 mm for the area of east Croatia
over the period from 0600 UTC on 15 till 0600 UTC on
the 16th May (figure 13a), which was very close to the
actual precipitation measured (Figure 13b).
On the 14th May, a yellow precipitation alert for east
Croatia was issued by DHMZ through the
METEOALARM system, followed by an orange
precipitation alert and a red wind alert on the 15th
May. The weather forecasters of Bosnia and
Herzegovina also issued an orange precipitation
alert, and the Serbian meteorologists a red alert for
precipitation (Figure 14).
Conclusion
The flood that occurred in the lower Sava river basin
was a consequence of increased precipitation
between the 11th and 17th May 2014, especially in
the areas of east Croatia, north-west Bosnia and
central Serbia. The cause of the increased precipitation was a strong and stationary cyclone, with a
centre located over the southeast Europe. The flood
was also preceded by a very wet period, so that the
soil was saturated with water in the area of the Sava
river basin. The event was correctly forecast and all
forecasting services issued alerts for high precipitation. However, due to abnormal intensity and
stationarity of the cyclone that brought extreme rainfall (in some places exceeding the average monthly
precipitation amounts by several times), the largescale flood was inevitable.
Figure 14: METEOALARM alerts for 15th May 2014.
47

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The European

Newsletter of the WGCEF N 20

Draft Minutes of the 20th Annual Meeting of WGCEF

Infra-Synoptic High Impact Events,

Saint Nicolas Storm 5 December 2013

Social Media at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

Bow Echoes: Conceptual Schemes and European Relevance

A Global Forecast Quality Score for Administrative Purposes

Severe Freezing Rain in Slovenia

Synoptic analysis of the Catastrophic Floods in SE Europe, May 2014

Representatives of the WGCEF

source METEO FRANCE

The European Forecaster

Draft Minutes of the 20th Annual Meeting

1. Will opened the meeting and welcomed the

The European Forecaster

WGCEF involvement in EUMETNET was a positive

despite the complexity of ideas involved.

others will name storms for us and perhaps confuse

Some stations are now closed overnight, with an

The European Forecaster

The European Forecaster

Infra-Synoptic High Impact Events,

Figure 2: Thursday 3 July, 12 UTC, Mean sea level pressure and

Figure 6: Conceptual view for Friday 4 July, mean sea level

Figure 4: ARPEGE forecast for 12 UTC, Friday 4 July, base time

Figure 5: ARPEGE forecast for 12 UTC, Friday 4 July, base time

(increasing of wet bulb potential temperature).

Figure 7: ARPEGE forecast for 12 UTC, Friday 4 July, base time

Figure 8: Vigilance watch map base time Thursday 3 July, 4 p.m.

Models were in good agreement, and uncertainty

were published for this situation. The first one was

Figure 9: Vigilance watch map base time Friday 4 July, 6 a.m.

stones with a 2 cm diameter, heavy rainfall with

One can add that the forecaster's job was not so

Figure 10: 24 h rainfall accumulation between Friday 4 July,

The reader with a sharp eye will have noticed that

Figure 11: Lightning strikes between Friday 4 July, 00 UTC

Figure 13: Headlines of Newspaper Sud-Ouest. Note the words

and Saturday 5 July, 00 UTC.

controversy, surprise, victims fulminate, catastrophic toll.

12 The European Forecaster

had already been saturated after a rainy spring,

strong clear signal of heavy rainfall over the Pays

Figure 15: AROME 12 h rainfall accumulation between Thursday 3

Additionally, gaze was turned to the South-East

Figure 16: AROME 12 h rainfall accumulation between Friday 4

Figure 14: ARPEGE 12 h rainfall accumulation between Thursday 3

The European Forecaster

14 The European Forecaster

The point of view presented in this article is not

Saint Nicolas Storm 5 December 2013

The Netherlands is situated on the southern edge of the

This case is called the Saint Nicolas storm in the

The Netherlands is, as the name indicates, a very

The Saint Nicolas Storm

afternoon. The cold front left the country early in the

The passage of this front was accompanied by a

Average wind speeds reached 9-10 Bft (figure 6).

Meteorologists at KNMI make use of the following

The European Forecaster

Water related consequences

Near-record high water levels were reached in the

18 The European Forecaster