InformingthePolicyFramework:

TheRisk/BenefitAssessment
CharlesNHaas

BigPictureSummary(I)
Datagaps,particularlyonlaboratorysafety, was
thought tolimitabilitytodoanabsoluterisk
assessment
(discussion)Needtodevelopscholarship(andsupport)for
thesestudies

Ifapureacceptableriskruleisusedasadecision,
thenwelackinformationonwhatthatshouldbe.
Thenewdataonseasonalvs.1918influenzasuggests
thatriskassessmentsneedtobeliving
Leavinguncertaintyoutisaviolationoffirstprinciples
(Finkel)

BigPicture(II)
Isitsafeisavapidquestion(Finkel)
Ahierarchyofpotentialdecisionrulesexist(Cox,
Finkel)andexplicitjudgmentofwhatistobe
usedneedstobemade.Decidinghowto
decideseemstobemissingfromthe
discussion(Morgan).
Stakeholderinputneedstobeincludedtodevelopthe
decisionrules

Thedecisionanalysiscommunityhasrich
scholarshipwhichneedstobebroughttobear
(Morgan)

BigPicture(III)
Fallacyofcoherence(Cox) justbecausearisk
hasbeenacceptedinthepastdoesnotmean
itwouldbeacceptablegoingforward
Needtoassesswhethercollectionofmore
informationwouldmakeadecisionbetter
(valueofinformation)

ImportantMisc.Comments
Benchresearchersmaynotbefamiliarenough
withepi parameterstoassesstransmissibility
RiskBenefitAnalysiscouldbeusedtoimprove
theriskprofileofproposedexperiments
Riskandbenefitanalysesshouldbebalanced,
humbleandexplicitaboutvaluejudgements
Longtermbenefitsmaybeparticularly
difficulttovalueandhighlyuncertain