A GIS Analysis To Evaluate Areas Suitable For Crushed1

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Style file version Nov. 07, 2000
C 2004)
Natural Resources Research, Vol. 13, No. 3, September 2004 (
A GIS Analysis to Evaluate Areas Suitable for Crushed

Stone Aggregate Quarries in New England, USA
Gilpin R. Robinson, Jr.,1,4 Katherine E. Kapo,1,3 and Gary L. Raines2
Received 20 March 2004; accepted 21 April 2004
Aggregate is a low unit-value mineral commodity. Costs to move aggregate from the mine
site to the point of use is a large fraction of the resource cost to users. Production sites for
aggregate occur where suitable source materials exist and where transportation and market
conditions are favorable. The increasing demand for aggregate and the difficulty of developing
and permitting new sites and of renewal of permits on existing sites of aggregate production
indicates that aggregate will be supplied from sources yet to be developed or delineated in
many areas. Site development and permitting for aggregate production is difficult because
many land management plans and zoning actions fail to anticipate prospective source areas
for aggregate in a way that is consistent with both the source rock quality and the transportation and socioeconomic factors that define the economic viability of the industry. Spatial
analysis provides a method to integrate both geology and economic (transportation and marketplace) parameters in a regional model. Weights of evidence (WofE) analysis has been used
to measure the spatial correlation of geologic map, transportation network, and population
data with current production sites for crushed stone aggregate in the New England region of
the northeastern United States. Weighted logistic regression (WLR) is used with the WofE results to rank areas in terms of their relative suitability for production of crushed stone. Spatial
analysis indicates that 85% of the 106 crushed stone aggregate quarries in New England are
sited within 1.6 km (1 mile) of either a principal highway or rail line in the region. Seventyeight percent of crushed stone aggregate quarries are sited in census tracts with population
densities exceeding 100 people/mile2 . These relations illustrate the importance of proximity
to both transportation corridors and developing areas where aggregate is predominately used.
Only one active crushed stone quarry is located in a census tract with a population density
less than 15 people/mile2 , reflecting the lack of sufficient market demand in many rural areas
to develop an operation there. However, since 1990, almost all new quarries have been developed in census tracts with population densities less than 200 people/mile2 , indicating the
difficulty of permitting new quarry sites in highly populated areas. Crushed stone aggregate
is produced predominately from three hard rock types that are distributed widely in New
England; 28% of sites use granitic rock, 25% use carbonate rocks, and 25% use mafic rock
types that are categorized as trap rock by the aggregate industry. The other crushed stone
aggregate sources include a variety of fine-grained metamorphic rock types. Carbonate rocks
and Jurassic basalt (the primary trap rock source) are the most prevalent source rocks on an
area-weighted basis. Spatial analysis can be used on a regional scale to rank areas by their
relative suitability for crushed stone aggregate production based on geology, transportation,
U.S. Geological Survey, 954 National Center, Reston, Virginia 20192.

U.S. Geological Survey, Mackay School of Mines, MS 176, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada 89557-0047.
3 Present address: Institute for Environmental Quality, Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio 45435-0001.
4 To whom correspondence should be addressed at 954 National Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 20192; e-mail:
grobinso@usgs.gov
2
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C 2004 International Association for Mathematical Geology
1520-7439/04/0900-0143/1
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Robinson, Kapo, and Raines

and population parameters. The results of this regional analysis can identify areas for more
detailed evaluation. As transportation or population features change, the model can be revised
easily to reflect these changes.
KEY WORDS: Aggregate resources, Weights of Evidence (WofE), Weighted Logistic Regression
(WLR).
INTRODUCTION
Natural aggregate consists of stone crushed from
a variety of hard-rock deposit types and sand and
gravel mined from alluvial deposits. Aggregate is
used extensively in asphalt pavement, cement concrete, and structural fill in construction activities to
develop, maintain, modify, and improve roads, buildings, and other infrastructure in urban and developing areas (Tepordei, 2001a; Langer, 1988; Langer
and Glanzman, 1993). Aggregate must meet a variety of engineering and quality specifications that
are defined by standardized tests (ASTM, 2003a,
2003b; Barksdale, 2000), and the high-quality source
rocks and gravels that meet these specifications, although generally abundant regionally, are limited or
restricted in many local areas (Langer and Knepper,
1995).
Aggregate is a high-bulk, low unit-value, high
place-value (Bates, 1969) mineral commodity whose
cost to the end user is influenced strongly by the cost of
transporting processed aggregate from the mine site
to the construction site (Poulin, Pakalnis, and Sinding,
1994). Lower quality aggregate production sites that
are closer to the consumer can be more competitive
than higher quality aggregate produced from more
distant sites (Poulin, Pakalnis, and Sinding, 1994).
Groups of aggregate producers and end users linked
by transportation corridors generally develop exclusive market areas for aggregate within a geographic
region (Poulin and Bildeau, 1993; Joseph and others,
1987; Fakundiny, 1980). The dispersed locations of aggregate production sites are a complex function of geologic, marketplace, and land use factors. Important
variables include:
(1) Variation in the distribution and quality attributes of the geologic source materials that
can be used for crushed stone aggregate,
(2) Variation in location of demand for aggregate,
(3) Variation in the availability of land with highquality aggregate source materials because of
preemptive land development and restrictive
zoning (Kuff, 1984),
(4) Variation in transportation methods, costs,

and aggregate haul distances (Poulin,
Pakalnis, and Sinding, 1994), and
(5) The relative success rate in developing new
production sites and re-permitting existing
production sites for aggregate (Weaver, 1995;
Stanley, Marlow, and Harris, 2000; Langer,
2002).
The increasing demand for aggregate, growing
at an average rate of more than 2% per year in the
United States (Tepordei, 2001a), and the difficulty
of developing and permitting new sites of aggregate
production (Stanley, Marlow, and Harris, 2000) indicates that aggregate will need to be supplied from
sources yet to be developed or delineated in many
areas (Tepordei, 2001a). The delineation of prospective source areas for aggregate involves evaluation of
both geologic factors that relate to aggregate quality
and transportation and socioeconomic factors that relate to the economic viability of the industry (Stanley,
Marlow, and Harris, 2000).
This paper explores the use of a quantitative and
reproducible data-driven Geographic-InformationSystem (GIS) technique to measure spatial relations
between existing crushed stone aggregate quarry sites,
geology, transportation networks, and population distribution. The GIS technique quickly develops a predictive model based on these regional spatial relations. The model defines the general areas most likely
to be of interest to the aggregate industry as sites for
crushed stone production, and to the land management community for planning and zoning evaluation
related to new permit applications and existing permit renewals for aggregate production. The derived
probabilities can best be considered a relative ranking
of the degree of suitability for production of crushed
stone aggregate in the area studied. The suitable areas
identified by the regional model then can be evaluated
further on a site-specific basis using more detailed information on rock properties and economic analysis
(Marlow, Stanley, and Hudman, 2001). As transportation and population features change because of planning or actual development, the model can be revised
easily to reflect these changes.
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Areas Suitable for Aggregate Quarries in New England

Two data-driven methods, weights of evidence
(WofE; Bonham-Carter, 1994) and weighted logistic
regression (WLR; Agterberg and others, 1993), are
used to model the distribution of crushed stone aggregate quarry sites relative to geologic units, transportation networks, and population density. The Arc-SDM
extension for Arcview (Kemp and others, 2001) implemented these methods used in this study.
The WofE analysis approach is a quantitative
method using evidence to test a hypothesis. The results of this analysis can be used to describe and explore relations in spatial data from diverse sources,
make predictive models, and provide support for decision makers. The WofE analysis method was adapted
to GIS for mineral-potential mapping by BonhamCarter, Agterberg, and Wright (1988) and Agterberg,
Bonham-Carter, and Wright (1990), and the method
is summarized in Raines, Bonham-Carter, and Kemp
(2000). The method tests the hypothesis that an area
is suitable for the occurrence of a mineral deposit
site, defined by a set of response variable point locations (termed training sites), relative to a set of predictor variables (termed evidence). In the mineralresource-potential mapping example presented here,
the training points are the set of locations of active
crushed stone quarries and the predictive evidence
consists of geologic, transportation network, and
population distribution spatial data. The evidential
themes may have categorical values (e.g., the classes
of geologic units or rock types from maps), or ordered values (e.g., distance to linear and other spatial
objects).
For each binary evidential theme, a pair of
weights is calculated relative to the training sites, one
for presence of the evidence criterion (w+) and one
for absence of the evidence criterion (w). Multiclass evidential themes are associated with multiple
weights, with one weight for each class. The magnitude of the weights depends on the measured spatial association between the evidence criteria and the
training sites (crushed stone quarries) in the area studied. The arithmetic difference between the binary
weights, termed contrast, is a measure of this association. Uncertainties in the weights can be used to
measure the certainty that the contrast is not zero
(Bonham-Carter, 1994). This measure is termed confidence. The weights then are used to estimate the
probability that an area contains a mineral deposit,
based on the presence or absence of evidence criteria. The response theme is the posterior probability
that a unit area contains a training point. Uncertainties resulting from variances of weights and missing
145
data allow the relative uncertainty in posterior probability to be estimated and mapped.
WofE analysis was used to analyze spatial associations among the training sites relative to the multiple evidence categories and to reclassify the evidence
categories into binary or multiclass groups for optimal prediction. Weighted logistic regression (WLR)
is used to combine mathematically the optimized evidence map patterns (Agterberg, 1989; Agterberg and
others, 1993; Agterberg, Bonham-Carter, and Wright,
1990) to predict the distribution of quarry sites. The
WLR method avoids bias that may be present in the
WofE method caused by combining evidence datasets
that are spatially related (conditional dependence;
Agterberg and others, 1993).
The model posterior probabilities derived from
WLR can best be considered a relative ranking of
the degree of suitability for crushed stone aggregate
quarry development in the area studied. The resulting
suitability theme is based on the posterior probability that a unit area contains a training site quarry. The
high ranking areas delineated by the regional models
are considered suitable for site occurrence, and can be
evaluated further on a site specific basis using more
detailed information on rock properties and market
conditions.
SOURCES OF DATA
Four types of spatial data are used in the GISbased model approach to define the areas that are
most likely to produce crushed stone aggregate from
both newly developed and re-permitted quarries. The
sites of known active crushed stone quarries were used
as training sites to develop the model. The locations of
current crushed stone quarries were identified using
information in Tepordei (2001b) and Mine Safety and
Health Administration (MSHA) permit records for
New England. The sites were characterized further by
MSHA permit history into three categories: (1) new
quarries with permits issued after 1990, (2) existing
quarries with permits renewed and new permit numbers issued after 1990, and (3) existing sites with permit numbers issued before 1990. All sites were used
to calibrate the model. Data on new and permit renewal sites were used to evaluate the model results by
permit status category and modify the model to better
apply to the development of new quarry sites.
Three evidential theme layers were used: (1)
bedrock map units with appropriate quality attributes
(Langer and Knepper, 1995) to be used for aggregate
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Figure 1. Crushed stone aggregate quarry sites in relation to bedrock geology units generally suitable for aggregate in New England.
(Fig. 1), (2) proximity to principal highways and railroad lines (Fig. 2), and (3) categorical groups defined
by census tract population density (Fig. 3). The locations of current and past crushed stone quarries
(McFaul and others, 2000; Tepordei, 2001b) were used
to identify the geologic map units that are most suitable for use as aggregate (Fig. 1).
A compilation of 1:500,000 and 1:250,000 scale
state bedrock geologic maps (Doll and others, 1961;
Hermes, Gromet, and Murray, 1994; Lyons and others, 1997; Osberg, Hussey, and Boone, 1985; Rodgers,
1985; Zen and others, 1983) were used for predictive
evidence for New England geology at the regional
level. These maps are similar in type and scale to the
regional geologic map information available for other
areas. More detailed geologic map information, which
is not available currently in digital format, is preferable because some geologic units that are suitable for
aggregate are not delineated at the scale of the state

bedrock map. The 1:500,000 and 1:250,000-scale geologic maps used in this analysis were compiled on base
maps with an estimated 250- and 125-m spatial resolution (Longley and others, 2001). The geology, which
was compiled by inspection, generally has a spatial accuracy as good as 1 km, although the mismatch of unit
contacts across state boundaries indicates that spatial
uncertainty in some areas may exceed 2 km.
The proximity to the transportation network was
categorized into groups at distance intervals of 1.6 km
(1 mile), which is greater than the estimated spatial resolution of the evidential data layers used in
the analysis. The spatial resolution of the National
Highway Planning Network database and the U.S.
Census Bureau census tract database are estimated
as 100 and 500 m, respectively (Longley and others,
2001).
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Figure 2. Surface transportation features (major highways and railroad networks) and crushed stone aggregate quarry sites in
New England.
Spatial population density information (people

per square mile) by U.S. census tract, used for predictive evidence, was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau (2000), with a scale of approximately
1:500,000 (Fig. 2). The National Highway Planning
Network database provided spatial information for
the interstates and major highway features of the
study area at a scale of 1:100,000 (Fig. 3) that were
used for predictive evidence. The highway network is
composed of rural arterials, urban principal arterials,
and all National Highway System routes (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2002). The railroad network
data is composed of the national railway system reported by the Federal Railroad Administration (U.S.
Department of Transportation, 2002).
All evidential theme layers were prepared in

grid format using Arcview 3.2 and Arc-SDM extension (Kemp and others, 2001). Each grid has a cell
size of 100 m, which is less than the minimum spatial uncertainty of the evidential theme source data.
The small cell size was selected to minimize classification error caused during the grid generation
process.
ANALYSIS OF EVIDENTIAL THEME LAYERS

WofE analysis was used to evaluate the spatial
associations among the training sites and predictive
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Figure 3. Census-tract level population density and crushed stone aggregate quarry sites in New England.
evidential theme categories, and to reclassify the

evidential theme layers for optimal prediction
(Bonham-Carter, 1994; Raines, Bonham-Carter, and
Kemp, 2000). The base model assumption in the
WofE analysis is that current aggregate marketplace conditions defining proximity to construction
markets, proximity to transportation corridors to
efficiently transport aggregate, and lithologic rock
types suitable for aggregate production will continue to be relevant in the future. This assumption
was evaluated using permit history data identifying new quarries and existing quarries with
site permits renewed after 1990 based on MSHA
records.
Bedrock Lithology
The bedrock geology map units with general
lithology characteristics highly suitable for aggregate (Langer and Knepper, 1995) and evidence of
current (Tepordei, 2001b) and past (McFaul and
others, 2000) production of crushed stone aggregate
are listed in Table 1. Some of the units in this table are
listed because they contain localized subunits, such as
carbonate rock or marble layers, which are not portrayed at the state map scale but which are suitable
for aggregate and have been utilized for aggregate
production in the past. Many other metamorphic and
granitic rock types that occur in map units that are not
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Table 1. Rock Units on State Bedrock Geologic Maps That Are
Suitable for Aggregate and Have Been Utilized to Produce
Crushed Stone Aggregate in New England, by Lithology groupa
State
CT
MA
ME
NH
RI
VT
Bedrock map unit symbols

C-sb, OC-s
C-wb, Og, Pp, Pw, Ygr, Zsgg,
Zsph, Zwr
Ob, Ohb, Om, Omo, Oq
Jb, Jha, Jho
De, Otfg, Ow, SOh
C-sc, Osg
Dcgr, SOcgr, Zdgr, Zdngr,
Zfgr, Zhg, Zpgr, Zsg
DSdi, DZl, Oa, Ohg, OZm,
Ssqd, Zb, Zdi, Zdigb, Zv
Jd, Jdb, Jhb
C-Zds, De, Opf, Ow, Pp, Pr, Pw,
Pwv, PzZc, SOvh, St, Ygg
Dsdl, Ozsk, Ssal, Ssl, Swl, Zil
C1, C1b(m), D1, K1a
Ow, Ozc, OZev
OC-s, Om, Oq, OZm, SOv
D1m, Db2b, Dc1m, OZrb,
PM1m
De9, Oal, Oalx
Oq
Dsg, Zeg, Zseg, Zsgg, Zwr
DZgd, Zbu
Pnbpu, Zbg
C-cs, C-d, C-w, Ob, Ocw, Ohg,
Omic, Os
nhu
Oa, OC-sg
Oal, pC
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Table 2. Comparison of Crushed Stone Lithology Type Reported
by Aggregate Producer (Tepordei, 2001b) and
by Location of Production Site on Geolgic Map Data
Lithology group
Carbonate rocks
Granitic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Jurassic basalt
Other Rock types
Carbonate rocks
Granitic rocks
Number of sites
Lithology group
Producer reported
Bedrock map
Carbonate rock
Granitic rock
Trap rock
Jurassic basalt
Other Mafic rocks
Metamorphic rocks
27
30
49
25
24
57
Total
11
8
15
106
11
14
32
106
Other Mafic rocks

Jurassic basalt
Metamorphic rocks
Carbonate rocks
Granitic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Metamorphic rocks
Granitic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Metamorphic rocks
Granitic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Metamorphic rocks
Carbonate rocks
Granitic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Metamorphic rocks
a Bedrock
map unit symbols are from the published state bedrock

geologic maps (Doll and others, 1961; Hermes, Gromet, and
Murray, 1994; Lyons and others, 1997; Osberg, Hussey, and Boone,
1985; Rodgers, 1985; Zen and others, 1983).
listed in Table 1 can be crushed to produce aggregate.

Some have been used to produce aggregate in limited
amounts. However, the general rock characteristics of
these map units are less suitable for aggregate than the
map units listed in Table 1. To develop the preliminary
set of evidential theme layers for WofE analysis and
optimization, the bedrock map units were grouped
into lithology categories (Table 1) The source lithology types for active quarries identified by the quarry
operators are categorized in Table 2. The source lithology types for active quarries indicated by geologic
map information are summarized in Table 3. The
distribution of these bedrock map units is shown in
Figure 1, with the lithology types grouped into three
categories.
One hundred six production sites for crushed

stone aggregate, that were active in 2001, have
been identified (MSHA permit data) and located
(Tepordei, 2001b) in New England. Table 2 lists and
compares the aggregate source rock types as classified
by the aggregate producer (Tepordei, 2001b) and by
bedrock geologic map unit. Although there is a discrepancy in numbers between the producer and geologic map classifications, the important source rock
categories are consistent.
Carbonate rock, granitic rock, and trap rock are
the most important source materials used for aggregate at the quarry sites (Table 2). Trap rock is an industry trade term that refers to a dark fine-grained
rock that generally would be classified using geologic
criteria as either mafic or metamorphic rock types.
The trap rock category has been subdivided into a
metamorphic rocks subgroup and two mafic rock subgroups [(1) Jurassic basalt and (2) other mafic rocks].
The metamorphic rocks subgroup generally represents fine-grained, poorly foliated metamorphic rock
types, including silicified metamorphic rocks occurring along fault zones. The most important source
rocks for crushed stone aggregate reported by the aggregate producers are carbonate rock, granitic rock,
and mafic rock, which comprise 25, 28, and 18%
of the producing sites, respectively. Basalt and diabase of Jurassic age is the most important individual
source rock in the mafic rock subgroup (11 sites). The
active crushed stone aggregate quarry sites categorized by bedrock geologic map unit lithology are predominately located in carbonate rock (25), granitic
rock (24), mafic rocks (25mafic rocks and Jurassic
basalt/diabase categories in Table 3), and other metamorphic rocks (32metamorphic rock and less suitable lithologies in Table 3).
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Table 3. WofE Analysis Results for Evidence Classes, Showing Optimized Reclassificationa
Reclassification
Evidence
Lithology categories
Less suitable lithologies
Metamorphic rocks
Other Mafic rocks
Granitic rock
Carbonate rocks
Jurassic basalt & diabase
Model contrast = 5.661
Model confidence = 14.245
Proximity to pricipal roads
>3.2 km from roads
1.63.2 km from roads
<1.6 km from roads
Proximity to rail lines
>3.2 km from roads
1.63.2 km from roads
<1.6 km from roads
Proximity to roads & rails
Both category >3.2 km
One category 1.63.2 km
One category <1.6 km
Both category <1.6 km
Population density
115 peo/sq mi
1645 peo/sq mi
46100 peo/sq mi
101300 peo/sq mi
301675 peo/sq mi
6761519 peo/sq mi
15203147 peo/sq mi
31487689 peo/sq mi
>7689 peo/sq mi
Sites
Area
W+
s(C)
C/s(C)
Binary
Multi
16
16
14
24
25
11
80.9%
6.1%
2.7%
7.8%
2.3%
0.2%
1.680
0.914
1.604
1.069
2.317
3.981
1.497
0.101
0.115
0.176
0.246
0.108
3.177
1.015
1.719
1.245
2.563
4.089
0.271
0.272
0.287
0.232
0.229
0.323
11.707
3.737
5.984
5.360
11.173
12.649
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
2
3
8
20
78
52.7%
18.7%
28.6%
1.944
0.011
0.945
0.671
0.003
0.995
2.616
0.014
1.940
0.368
0.248
0.220
7.113
0.054
8.803
29
27
50
74.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0.996
0.756
1.215
1.029
0.167
0.487
2.025
0.922
1.702
0.218
0.223
0.195
9.289
4.135
8.743
4
12
52
38
47.1%.
18.9%
25.3%
8.7%
2.525
0.514
0.661
1.424
0.599
0.090
0.383
0.354
3.123
0.604
1.044
1.777
0.510
0.307
0.194
0.203
6.127
1.970
5.371
8.766
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
3
1
6
16
33
22
12
7
7
2
35.7%
22.0%
14.7%
14.8%
6.4%
3.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
3.637
1.356
0.025
0.742
1.174
1.128
1.509
2.055
1.957
0.434
0.190
0.004
0.213
0.166
0.083
0.054
0.060
0.016
4.071
1.546
0.030
0.954
1.340
1.211
1.563
2.115
1.973
1.005
0.420
0.272
0.210
0.240
0.307
0.392
0.392
0.715
3.678
0.109
4.546
5.592
3.947
3.990
5.395
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
a Weights (w+, w), Contrasts (C), Standard Deviations (s), and Confidence (C/s(C)) are calculated for the preliminary evidence categories
evaluated as categorical groups. The optimized reclassification for each evidential theme layer determined by WofE analysis for binary and
multiclass models are shown in the right-hand columns. The w+ statistic represents the weight calculated for the presence of the evidence
criteria for each class within the evidence theme. The w statistic represents the weight calculated for the absence of the evidence criteria.
A positive w+ value indicates a higher number of occurring sites than expected by chance in the evidence category; a negative value indicates
fewer sites than expected by chance. Confidence values greater than 1.96 are considered acceptable because the weight value is almost twice
its standard deviation. The standard deviation of the weights reported here assume a large number, and for classes with a small number of
training sites the estimate is not robust and gives a misleading estimate of confidence. The confidence associated with classes with less than
3 sites therefore are suspect and should be ignored. These confidence values are not shown in the table.
The discrepancy between the source rocks reported by the producer and the source rock indicated
by the geologic map occurs for all rock group types
(Table 2). The discrepancy mainly reflects spatial limi-
tations and uncertainty in the grid portraying bedrock

geologic map units and, to a lesser degree, misclassification of rock type by producers. A few granitic and
carbonate rock categories that disagree between the
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producer and geology map unit classifications occur
for small bodies of granitic rock and thin carbonate
rock units that are not delinated as individual map
units on the state bedrock geologic maps (for example,
local bodies of carbonate rock occur as undesignated
map units in unit SOcm in Maine). This discrepancy
is dependent on map scale, with the result that production sites in granitic and carbonate rocks are slightly
underrepresented in the analysis and sites in otherwise less suitable lithologies receive a higher weight
than their general lithology would otherwise merit.
This weighting of less suitable lithologies represents
the degree of occurrence of small areas of suitable
lithologies (that are not designated at map scale) in
the general less-suitable lithology rock groups. The
discrepancy between the trap rock subgroups of the
producer versus the mafic and metamorphic rock subgroups defined by the bedrock geologic maps reflects
both spatial uncertainty in the bedrock map and, to
an unknown degree, misclassification of source rock
by the producer. In all of these situations, the WofE
analysis assigns an occurrence weight to the source
rock category defined by the bedrock geologic map
units.
Transportation Network
A visual correlation between crushed stone
aggregate production site locations and proximity
to principal transportation corridors is evident in
Figure 2. Thirty-six percent of the crushed stone
quarries are sited within 1.6 km (1 mile) of both
principal highways and rail lines. This distance from
transportation corridors defines an area of only 8.7%
of the region (Table 3). Most of the crushed stone
quarries (85%) are sited within 1.6 km of either a
principal highway or a rail line in the region (34%
of the regional area). These relations illustrate the
importance of proximity to transportation corridors
to the industry (Table 3).
Population Density
Population density at the census tract scale (areas on the order of a few tens of square kilometers)
is thought to provide an indicator of local proximity to construction markets and is an indicator of
the local setting of quarry operations. The population density distribution was categorized into ten intervals with similar ranges on a log-transformed scale.
Using WofE to determine optimal breakpoints, these
151
intervals were subsequently grouped into four population density classes (Fig. 3). A visual correlation
of aggregate quarry site locations by increasing population density categories is evident in Figure 3, and
the information in Table 3 quantifies the degree of
correlation.
In New England, 78% of crushed stone quarries
occur in census tracts with population densities exceeding 100 people/mile2 (28% of the regional area),
illustrating the importance of proximity to the urban
and developing urban fringe communities where aggregate is predominately used (Table 3). Only one
crushed stone quarry is located in a census tract
with a population density less than 15 people/mile2 ,
reflecting the lack of a sufficient market demand
in many rural areas to justify the required investment in the equipment needed to process and produce crushed stone relative to other sand and gravel
sources.
Most crushed stone quarries in New England
have been in operation for at least 20 years and
all of the crushed stone quarries currently active in
high population density areas were developed initially
when the areas were less populated (McFaul and others, 2000). However, existing crushed stone quarries
must renew their operating permits on a recurring
basis, ranging from every few years to more than ten
years for states in the New England region. Many of
these permit renewal applications include changes in
aggregate production rate and changes in the area of
the quarry operation.
MODEL INTEGRATION
WofE analysis was used to analyze the spatial
associations among the training sites and multiclass
evidential theme layers, and to reclassify the layers
for optimal prediction (Bonham-Carter, 1994; Raines,
Bonham-Carter, and Kemp, 2000). WLR modeling
was used to combine the optmized evidential theme
layers to calculate the posterior probability for occurrence of crushed stone aggregate production sites
(Agterberg and others, 1993; Agterberg, BonhamCarter, and Wright, 1990; Bonham-Carter, 1994). Two
models were developed and compared: (1) A simple
model (Model 1) using binary class groups of geology, transportation, and population density evidential
theme layers, and (2) a complex model (Model 2) using multiclass geology, transportion, and population
density evidential theme layers with four data categories in each evidence.
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The optimized reclassification of the geology

and population density evidential theme maps in
the binary and multiclass models used WofE analysis weight and confidence criteria as documented
in Bonham-Carter, Agterberg, and Wright (1988),
Wright (1996), Wright and Bonham-Carter (1996),
Mihalasky (1999), Raines (1999), and Kemp and others (2001). The binary and multiclass reclassification is
summarized in Table 3 along with the resulting WofE
weights.
Contrast, constrast standard deviation, confidence, and contrast differences for the preliminary
evidence categories in Table 3 were used to reclassify
evidence in the binary and multiclass models. Confidence [C/s(C) in Table 3] is used as an informal
significance test of each evidence category. A C/s(C)
absolute value of 1.96 is approximately equal to 95%
confidence that the reported contrast is not zero
(Bonham-Carter, 1994; Bonham-Carter, Agterberg,
and Wright, 1988), which is considered significant.
For the simple binary model (Model 1), for each
evidential theme layer, all preliminary evidence categories with weights significantly greater than zero
were combined into class 1, indicating those categories are associated positively with crushed stone
quarries. All categories with weights less than or equal
to zero were combined into class 0, indicating that
quarries are not associated with these areas.
The differences in contrast and their standard deviations are used to evaluate whether the preliminary
evidence categories for each evidential theme layer in
Table 3 were sufficiently similar such that they should
be combined in the multiclass model. The Students
t-test, similar to the confidence test above, is used as
a general measure of the certainty that the measured
contrasts in two preliminary evidence groups are not
identical. The studentized value of contrast difference
is calculated as:
Z = |(C1 C2 )|/(s(C1 )2 + s(C2 )2 )1/2
(1)
where Z is the studentized value and C and s are the

contrast and its standard deviation for each group
pair. A value of Z greater than 1.96 is used in this
study as an informal significance test; this value is interpreted as approximately 95% confidence that the
contrast values are not identical. Using this criterion
for the multiclass model (Model 2), geology was categorized into four lithology classes (three positively associated with crushed stone quarries), transportation
proximity into four classes (two positively associated
with aggregate production sites) and population density into four classes (two positively associated with
crushed stone quarries) (Table 3). To minimize conditional dependence between transportation evidence,
the proximity to principal roads and rail line evidence
was combined into a composite evidential theme layer
(Road & Rail, Table 3).
MODEL RESULTS
The binary evidence class model (Model 1) defines only eight posterior probability categories and
is the easiest model to compare weight, contrast,
and confidence measures. As indicated by the contrast in WofE results for the binary evidence class
model (Table 4), bedrock geology criteria provide the
strongest evidence for location of crushed stone aggregate quarries, followed by the transportation and
population density evidence that are nearly equivalent in contrast.
The geology evidence and population density evidence have similar values for w and w+. These
balanced weights indicate that the favorable criteria
in these evidence categories target where aggregate
production occurs. Such evidence can be thought of
as inclusive evidence (Raines and Mihalasky, 2002).
The weights defined for transportation network proximity are characterized by favorable areas with w+
magnitudes that are smaller than the absolute value
Table 4. Criteria, Weights (w, w+), and Contrast (C) with Confidence (C/s(C)) for Evidential Theme Categories Used to Develop the
Binary Class Model (Model 1), With WofE Model Conditional Independence Value
Evidence
w+
C/s(C)
Bedrock geology
1.6202
1.4891
3.1094
11.7440
Population density
1.2065
1.0468
2.2533
9.5601
Principal road + rail proximity
1.4153
0.9051
2.3203
8.7647
Trainig sites: 106
Prior probability = 0.0006 sites/km2
Conditional Independence (CI of Agterberg and Cheng, 2002): 2.88
CI values greater than 2.33 indicate some conditional dependence at alpha = 0.01
Criteria
Bedrock unit suitable for aggregate (Table 1)
Within census tracts with >100 people/sq mi
Within 1.6 km of principal road or rail line
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Table 5. Criteria, Weights (w+), and Contrast (C) With Confidence (C/s(C)) for Evidential Theme Categories
Used to Develop the Multiclass Model (Model 2), With WofE Model Conditional Independence Value
Evidence
(reclassification)
Geology
(lithology groups)
Population
(population density)
0 (weight)
1.6801
3.6369
Critera
Unfavorable rocks
<15 peo/sq mi
1 (weight)
1.1284
1.3562
Criteria
Granite + other rocks
1645 peo/sq mi
2 (weight)
2.3171
0.0250
Criteria
Carbonate rocks
46100 peo/sq mi
3 (weight)
3.9812
1.0470
Criteria
Jurassic basalt
>100 peo/sq mi
C
5.6613
4.6838
C/s(C)
14.3122
4.6558
Training Sites:106
Prior probability: 0.0006 sites/km2
Conditional Independence (CI of Agterberg and Cheng, 2002): 2.95
CI values greater than 2.33 indicate some conditional dependence at alpha = 0.01
of w. This indicates that this proximity evidence is

weighted most strongly where aggregate production
does not occur (i.e., far from roads and rail lines).
Such evidence can be thought of as exclusive evidence
(Raines and Mihalasky, 2002).
In the multiclass model, each evidence type has
four categories. The contrast for all evidence is large
and significant (Table 5). Based on contrast values
for the multiclass model, geology again provides the
strongest evidence for the location of crushed stone
quarries (Table 5). Population density provides the
next best evidence and transportation is the weakest
evidence.
The WofE results for both the binary class
model (Model 1:2.88; Table 3) and the multiclass
model (Model 2: 2.95; Table 5) have significant conditional dependency as calculated by the Agterberg
and Cheng (2002) CI test. Conditional dependency
is a statistical expression of the relation among
the different evidential themes. For example, high
population-density areas have a high density of principal roads and rail lines. The posterior probability
results of the models portrayed in Figures 4 and 5
were calculated using WLR in order to avoid the bias
caused by conditional dependency of the evidential
theme with regards to training sites (Agterberg, 1989;
Agterberg and others, 1993; Agterberg, BonhamCarter, and Wright, 1990; Bonham-Carter, 1994).
The posterior probability results calculated by
WLR are categorized into suitability groups in
Figures 4 and 5 using interval breaks in posterior probability that are similar for both models so that the
binary and multiclass model results can be directly
Transportation
(proximity to road/rail)
2.5245
both >3.2 km
0.5142
one 1.63.2 km
0.6614
one <1.6 km
1.4235
both <1.6 km
3.9480
7.5096
compared. Map areas with a posterior probability

lower than 0.0004 sites/km2 are designated as generally unsuitable areas for crushed stone aggregate
quarries; map areas with posterior probability exceeding this value are considered generally suitable for aggregate quarries. This threshold value, which is below
the prior probability value of 0.0006 sites/km2 , was selected to allow all bedrock groups designated as generally suitable for aggregate to occur in the suitable category for the binary model. Based on natural breaks
in the posterior probability results of the models, the
suitable category was subdivided into low, moderate,
and high suitability categories at posterior probability
values of 0.001 and 0.002 sites/km2 . Using this criterion, more than 93% of the quarry sites in both models
are sited in the suitable area occupying less than 31%
of the study area (Table 6).
EVALUATION AND MODIFICATION

OF THE MODELS
The success of the models is evident visually in
Figures 4 and 5 as most current crushed stone aggregate production sites are located in areas classified
as suitable. Of the 106 training sites, 6 sites (6%) in
the binary model (Model 1) and 7 sites (7%) in the
multiclass model (Model 2) are located in the generally unsuitable category. The poor fit of most of
these sites is explained by misclassification of lithology at the production site relative to the bedrock geology evidential theme grid. Most of these sites fit
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Figure 4. Binary Class Model results (Model 1). Quarry sites are categorized by permit status. Classification of quarry site suitability is based
posterior probability model results. Posterior probability values lower than 0.0004 sites/km2 are designated as generally unsuitable areas for
crushed stone aggregate quarries; map areas with posterior probability exceeding this value are considered generally suitable for aggregate
quarries. Based on natural breaks in posterior probability results of models, suitable category was subdivided into low, moderate, and high
suitability categories at posterior probability values of 0.001 and 0.002 sites/km2 .
the model poorly because the suitable geologic units

that the sites exploit for aggregate occur in limited
areas that are not delineated at the scale of the state
bedrock map. For a few sites that are located near
bedrock unit contacts, the misclassification is caused
by spatial uncertainty in the location of the site, spatial uncertainty in the location of the bedrock unit
on maps compiled at regional scale, and inaccuracy
in grid classification caused by the 100-m grid cell
size.
In the binary class model (Model 1, Fig. 4) all

posterior probability areas classified as suitable occur in category 1 lithology evidence (Table 3). In the
multiclass model, most of the posterior probability
area classified as suitable have category 1 or higher
lithology evidence; all of the suitable areas have at
least two category 1 evidence categories and at least
one category 2 or higher evidence (Table 6). In the
binary class model, the high suitability areas occur
only where all evidence has category 1 status. In the
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Figure 5. Multiclass Model results (Model 2). Quarry sites are categorized by permit status. Classification of quarry site suitability is based
posterior probability model results. Posterior probability values lower than 0.0004 sites/km2 are designated as generally unsuitable areas for
crushed stone aggregate quarries; map areas with posterior probability exceeding this value are considered generally suitable for aggregate
quarries. Based on natural breaks in posterior probability results of models, suitable category was subdivided into low, moderate, and high
suitability categories at posterior probability values of 0.001 and 0.002 sites/km2 .
multiclass model, the high suitability areas occur only

where geology evidence is at least category 1 status
and where at least one other evidence has category 3
status.
Although aggregate production data were not
considered in the WofE model, it is used as an indirect
validation test of the model results. Production data
from 2001 for the training site crushed stone quarries (V.V. Tepordei, proprietary data) was grouped by
the suitability categories defined by the model results.
A mean site production rate of aggregate, calculated
for each suitability category, is tabulated in Table 6.

The mean site production of aggregate increases and
differs systematically with increasing posterior probability for the binary model results (adjusted R 2 is
0.95 for least-squares regression between mean site
production and log mean site posterior probability
for the binary model suitability categories in Table 6).
The trend for the multiclass model is similar and the
results for both models overlap.
The model results were evaluated relative to information on the permit history of the quarry sites.
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Table 6. Model Results in Relation to Training Site Permit Status and Average Rate of Aggregate Production Per Site in Model Categorya
Suitability category of Model
Area
Binary Model
Generally unsuitable
Low suitability
0.69
0.20
Moderate suitability
High suitability
New sites
Avg. site production
Fraction in category
0.06
0.06
0.13
0.05
0.00
0.20
106 mTons/Yr
0.25
0.30
0.06
0.25
0.22
0.40
0.38
0.05
0.56
0.67
0.40
0.46
Multiclass Model
Generally unsuitable
Low suitability
0.77
0.14
0.08
0.13
0.06
0.11
0.20
0.00
0.22
0.32
Moderate suitability
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
N/A
High suitability
0.08
0.78
0.83
0.80
0.44
Site count
All sites
106
Repermit sites
18
Comments
Category 0 lithology
Category 1 lithology
or 2 other category 1
Category 1 lithology +
1 other category 1
3 category 1 evidence
2 category 1
>2 category 1 with >1
category 2 evidence
Category 3 population
+>1 category 1
> category 1 lithology
+>1 category 3
a Training
sites are categorized by MSHA permit history into three categories: (1) all active quarry sites (all sites), (2) quarry sites with
operating permits renewed and new permit numbers issued after 1990 (repermit sites), and (3) new quarry sites with initial permit numbers
issued after 1990 (new sites). Values in the area and sites categories are the fraction of the suitability category area or training sites that
occur in that category relative to the total area or number of sites. Average site production is calculated using unpublished site production
data for 2001 (V.V. Tepordei, proprietary data) averaged for all sites with available data in each suitability category. Production data are
not available for the one site in the moderate suitability category of the multiclass model. Comments identify the evidential theme classes
that occur in the suitability category groups for each model. The theme classes in the binary model are either category 0 or 1. The theme
classes in the multiclass model range from category 0 to 3.
The quarry sites were characterized by MSHA permit

history into three categories: (1) new quarries with
permits issued after 1990, (2) existing quarries with
permits renewed and new permit numbers issued after 1990, and (3) existing sites with permit numbers
issued before 1990. All sites were used to calibrate the
model. Data on new and permit renewal sites were
used to evaluate the model. The frequency of occurrence rates for the training sites in each category are
tabulated in Table 6. The site occurrence rates are
similar for each of the permit status categories, considering the small sample size of the new and permit
renewal categories.
Information on the population density setting of
the 18 permit renewal sites and 5 new quarry sites
was evaluated in greater detail to test and modify further the model. The permit renewal sites occurred in
all of the population density categories tabulated in
Table 3 at rates similar to the entire training site data
set. The general model forecasts seem valid for site
permit renewal rates. Based on the MSHA permit
data, 4 of the 5 new quarry sites are limited to population density settings of less than 200 people/mile2 .
The one site in Rhode Island that exceeds this range
is sited within 1 km of a census tract with a popu-
lation density less than 200 people/mile2 . The multiclass model was modified to take into account the
difficulty of permitting new quarry sites in highly populated areas by applying a population density filter at
a threshold of 200 people/mile2 to the suitability map
in Figure 5. Census-tract areas with population densities more than 200 people/mile2 were grouped into
the permit unlikely category by default. Increasing
population density is interpreted as a negative influence on the relative success rate for permitting new
quarry sites. The new quarry model results are shown
in Figure 6 relative to the five new quarry sites identified by MSHA records. Four of the five new quarry
sites occur in high suitability areas identified by the
new quarry model (Table 6, Fig. 6). One new quarry
site in Maine occurs in the generally unsuitable category based on population density evidence; this site is
within 1 km of higher population density areas. In the
binary and multiclass models (Figs. 4 and 5), the occurrence rate of crushed stone quarries in the higher
population density areas reflects the relative success
rate of the permit renewal process, whereas the occurrence rate in the lower population density areas
reflects both the rate of new quarry development and
the permit renewal process.
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Figure 6. New crushed stone quarry sites and multiclass model results with highest population densities (>200 people/sq mi) grouped in
permit ulikely category.
CONCLUSIONS
Geology provides the strongest predictive evidence for crushed stone quarry locations followed
by population density and transportation evidence,
based on the WofE contrasts evaluated for both
the binary and multiclass models (Tables 4 and 5).
Crushed stone aggregate is produced predominantly
from three hard-rock types that are widely distributed
in the region; 24% of the aggregate production sites
produce aggregate from carbonate rock, 30% produce aggregate from granitic rocks, and 34% produce aggregate from mafic and other metamorphic
rock types that are classified as trap rock by the industry. On an area-weighted basis, carbonate rocks
and Jurassic basalt are the two most important source
rocks providing crushed stone aggregate, with granitic
and other mafic rock sources falling into a third category with similar weights (Table 3).
Eighty-five percent of the active crushed stone
quarries are sited within 1.6 km (1 mile) of either a
principal highway or rail line in the region (34% of the
regional area), illustrating the importance of proximity to transportation corridors to the industry. In New
England, 78% of the quarries occur in census tracts
with population densities exceeding 100 people/mile2
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(28% of the regional area), illustrating the importance of proximity to the urban and developing urban fringe communities where aggregate is predominately used. Only one crushed stone quarry is located
in a census tract with a population density less than
15 people/mile2 , reflecting the lack of a sufficient market demand in many rural areas to justify the required investment in the equipment needed to process and produce crushed stone relative to other sand
and gravel sources. Based on MSHA permit data,
4 of the 5 quarries developed since 1990 have been
limited to tracts with population densities less than
200 people/mile2 ; the fifth site was within 1 km of
a census tract with a population density less than
200 people/mile2 . This population density threshold
was used to develop a model for new quarry
development.
This paper demonstrates a technique to define
suitable areas for aggregate production with WofE
and WLR techniques using geologic map, transportation network, and population density spatial data for
evidence. The locations of current crushed stone quarries are used as training points to model relations between the quarry sites, transportation networks, population density, and geology. The training sites were
categorized by permit history and aggregate production at the site to test and further modify the model to
apply to new quarry permit sites. Mean site aggregate
production is found to differ systematically with the
model results.
These GIS methods provide a useful first generation reconnaissance that is tied to the data and is
reproducible. This approach is data-driven and dependent on the distribution of training sites that are representative of significant deposits. Data for one area
could be used as a model that, once trained, could be
applied in other areas in a fashion comparable to the
conventional use of analogy in mineral exploration.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors thank Betsy Halliday and Louise
Santoro (Mine Safety and Health Administration)
for providing the MSHA quarry permit information
that was used in this study. Valentin Tepordei (U.S.
Geological Survey) provided unpublished information on crushed stone aggregate production that was
used in this study. The authors thank M. Milalasky
(Richard Stockton College), G. Bonham-Carter (Geological Survey of Canada), and L. Drew, J. Duval,

and S. Nicholson (all at the U.S. Geological Survey) for comments and suggestions that improved the
manuscript.
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