Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008

HIERARCHICAL TAKAGI-SUGENO TYPE FUZZY SYSTEM FOR DIABETES

MELLITUS FORECASTING
ARASH SHARIFI1, ASIYEH VOSOLIPOUR2, MAHDI ALIYARI SH 2, MOHAMMAD TESHNEHLAB2
1

Computer department of Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2
Electrical Engineering department of K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
E-MAIL: arash.sharifi@gmail.com, a.vosolipor@gmail.com, aliyari@ieee.org, teshnehlab@ieee.org

Abstract:
In this study, a new group method of data handling
(GMDH) method, based on adaptive neurofuzzy inference
system (ANFIS) structure, called ANFIS-GMDH and its
application for diabetes mellitus forecasting is presented.
Conventional neurofuzzy GMDH (NF-GMDH) uses radial
basis network (RBF) as the partial descriptions. In this study
the RBF partial descriptions are replaced with two input
ANFIS structures and backpropagation algorithm is chosen
for learning this network structure. The Prima Indians
diabetes data set is used as training and testing sets which
consist of 768 data whereby 268 of them are diagnosed with
diabetes. The result of this study will provide solutions to the
medical staff in determining whether someone is the diabetes
sufferer or not which is much easier rather than currently
doing a blood test. The results show that the proposed method
performs better than the other models such as multi layer
perceptron (MLP), RBF and ANFIS structure.

Keywords:
Hierarchical Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system; ANFIS
structure; Backpropagation algorithm; Diabetic mellitus

1.

Introduction

Fuzzy inference systems [1]-[3] have been

successfully applied to a number of scientific and
engineering problems during recent years. The advantage of
solving complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy
logic methodologies is that the experience or experts
knowledge described as the fuzzy rule base can be directly
embedded into the system for dealing with the problems.
Many efforts have been made to enhance systematic design
of fuzzy logic systems [4][9].
This paper presents a hierarchical Takagi-Sugeno
fuzzy system (TS-FS) model called ANFIS-GMDH in
which the RBF partial descriptions commonly used in
NF-GMDH [10],[11] is replaced with ANFIS [12]
structures with two input variables. Also backpropagation
algorithm and supervised training method are proposed for

tuning of this network structure's parameters.

Diabetic mellitus is a metabolic disorder that
characterized by inability of the pancreas to control blood
glucose concentration. This problem results in blood
glucose levels out of normal range. A great number of
diabetes patients are dependent on insulin (IDDM) to bring
their blood glucose levels in normal range. In type one
diabetes the disease is caused by the failure of the pancreas
to produce a sufficient amount of insulin which leads to
control blood glucose level.
The current treatment method for IDDM is insulin
injection and blood glucose monitoring. But current blood
glucose monitoring is an invasive method such as a finger
prick. It seems that using computer based methods will lead
to design more comfortable and noninvasive methods for
blood glucose monitoring.
The blood glucose metabolism of a diabetic is a
complex nonlinear process closely linked to a number of
internal factors which are not easily accessible to
measurement.
Research on diabetes data related to the application of
machine learning techniques has mainly focused on trying
to predict and monitor the blood glucose levels of diabetic
patients. It seems that some methods like using neural
networks and fuzzy neural network as a nonlinear method is
a useful to analyze and also predict blood glucose level and
other parameters.
2.
2.1.

Methodology
Outline of NF-GMDH Network

In the perceptron type GMDH algorithm [13], all

partial descriptions with one or two variables chose from all
the input variables in each layer are evaluated, and several
of them are selected. The network type NF-GMDH [10],
[11] have been proposed, whose partial descriptions are
represented by the RBF [14], [15] networks. In the net, two

978-1-4244-2096-4/08/$25.00 2008 IEEE

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Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008
input variables are introduced in each partial description.
Let the number of partial descriptions in each layer be M
and the number of layers be P. The fuzzy partial description
in this paper is as follows:
Let Aki(xi) denote the membership function of the k-th
fuzzy rule in the domain of i-th input variable. The
compatibility degree of the premise part of the k-th fuzzy
rule for the m-th partial description in the p-th layer is
computed with the algebraic product operation of the
membership functions as:

kpm =

A (x )
pm
ki

(1)

2.2. Tagaki-Sugenu Fuzzy Inference System (TS-FS)

Fuzzy inference systems are composed of a set of
rules. A TS fuzzy model has the following form of
fuzzy rules [16]:

IFTHEN

Rj : if x1 is A1j and x2 is A2j and and xn is Anj

Then y = gj (x1,x2,,xn)
(j=1,2,,N)
where gj is a crisp function of xi and usually has the form
gj (x1,x2,,xn) = w0+ w1x1++ wnxn. The overall output of
the fuzzy model can be obtained by:
N

i =1

where, L can be 1 or 2 for the partial descriptions of the

NF-GMDH. The conclusion part of the fuzzy inference rule
which infers y is simplified as a real number wi. For the
m-th partial description in the p-th layer the output is
written as:

y pm =

pm
k

w kpm

(2)

k =1

This model is called the simplified fuzzy reasoning

when following membership function is chosen.

( x pm a kipm ) 2
Akipm ( x i ) = exp i

bkipm

(3)

1
M

Pm

(4)

m =1

Figure1 shows the model structure of three layered

NF-GMDH which has three partial descriptions per layer.

Figure 1. Structure of NF- GMDH with six input variables

j =1

T
j =1

mj
i =1

mj
i =1

ij ( x i )

(5)

ij ( x i )

where 1mjn is the number of input variables that appear

in the rule premise, N is the number of fuzzy rules, n is the
number of inputs, ij is the membership function for fuzzy
set, and T is a T-norm for fuzzy conjunction.
The TS-FS is a single-stage fuzzy system. It is
important to partition the input space using some clustering,
grid partitioning etc. [17]. The shapes of membership
functions in the antecedent parts, and the free parameters in
the consequent parts are also to be determined using some
adaptive techniques [18], [19].
2.3.

Formula (2) can be regarded as the RBF network

which can be capable of approximating any continuous
mapping within an arbitrary accuracy. The final output of
NF-GMDH, y, is the average of outputs in the last layer.

y=

y=

gj ()T

ANFIS Structure

Here, type-3 ANFIS topology and learning method

which use for this neurofuzzy network is presented. Both
Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic [20] are model-free
estimators and share the common ability to deal with the
uncertainties and noise. Both of them encode the
information in a parallel and distribute architecture in a
numerical framework. Hence, it is possible to convert fuzzy
logic architecture to a neural network and vice-versa. A
network obtained this way could use excellent training
algorithms that neural networks have at their disposal to
obtain the parameters that would not have been possible in
fuzzy logic architecture. Moreover, the network obtained
this way would not remain a black box, since this network
would have fuzzy logic capabilities to interpret in terms of
linguistic variables [21].
Like fuzzy systems, ANFIS structure consists of two
parts. The first part is the antecedent part and the second
part is the conclusion part, which are connected to each
other by rules in network form. Figure 2 shows ANFIS
structure in five layers, where the first layer executes a
fuzzification process, the second layer executes the fuzzy

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Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008
AND for the antecedent part of the fuzzy rules, the third
layer normalizes the membership functions (MFs), the
fourth layer executes the consequent part of the fuzzy rules,
and finally the last layer computes the output of fuzzy
system. The feedforward equations of ANFIS with two
inputs and two labels for each input which is shown in
Figure 2 are as follow:

wi = Ai ( x1 ) Bi ( x2 ),
wi =

wi
,
w1 + w2

i = 1,2
i = 1,2

f1 = q11 x1 + q12 x2 + q13

f 2 = q21 x1 + q22 x2 + q23
w f + w2 f 2
F = 1 1
= w1 f 1 + w 2 f 2
w1 + w 2

(6)

ANFIS-GMDH and Backpropagation Algorithm

In this part the structure of ANFIS-GMDH and

learning method based on backpropagation algorithm has
been proposed. In this structure the RBF partial descriptors
are replaced with two inputs ANFIS structures in which the
number of membership functions for each input can be
changed. The output F of the m-th partial description in the
p-th layer is as follows:
n

(7)

F pm =

f lkpm A (x1pm ) B
l

k
n n

A (x1pm ) B

(8)

( x2pm )

(11)

( x2pm )

f lkpm = qlk1 x1 + qlk2 x 2 + qlk3

(9)

In order to model complex nonlinear systems, the

ANFIS model carries out input space partitioning that splits
the input space into many local regions from which simple
local models are employed. The ANFIS uses fuzzy MFs for
splitting each input dimension; the input space is covered
by MFs with overlapping, that means several local regions
can be activated simultaneously by a single input. As
simple local models are adopted in ANFIS model, the
ANFIS approximation ability will depend on the resolution
of the input space partitioning, which is determined by the
number of MFs in ANFIS and the number of layers.
Usually MFs are used as bell-shaped with maximum equal
to 1 and minimum equal to 0 such as:

x x bi
i 2
)
Ai ( x ) = exp (
i

3.

(12)

where n is the number of membership function for each

input variable and { q1, q2, q3} are real numbers. The final
output, y, of the ANFIS-GMDH is the average of the
outputs in the last layer.

y=

1
M

(13)

Pm

m =1

where M is the number of partial description in the last

layer, P. In this paper backpropagation algorithm has been
chosen for learning this network structure. Note that for
simplicity, A ( x1pm ) and B ( x 2pm ) are replaced with
l

Al and Bk respectively.
n

(10)

F
=
x1

where {xi, bi, i} are the parameters of the MFs which are
effected in the shape of MFs.

l =1

1 k =1

n
n

A n
f lk + Al Bk qlk1 F l Bk
k
l =1 x1 k =1

Bk

k =1

H Al =

l lk

2 l =1

2
k lk

B
F l
k =1 x2

l =1

(15)

A B
l

k =1

f lk F B k
k =1

A B
i

1267

x A f + A B q

Figure 2. Structure of ANFIS with two input variables)

(14)

A B
n

F
=
x2

Al

x B

l = 1,.., n

(16)

Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008
n

H Bk =

l =1

f lk F Al
l =1

A B
i

k = 1,.., n

(17)

l = 1,.., n

B k
F
= H Bk
,
x B K
x B k

k = 1,.., n

(19)

Al
F
= H Al
,
Al
Al

l = 1,.., n

(20)

k = 1,.., n

(21)

B K

= H Bk

B k
,
B K

wlk =

F pm
,
q lki , pm

i = 1,2,3

(29)

Note that the above equations are also valid for the
second input when Bk is replaced with Al.

Al
F
,
= H Al
x Al
x Al

q lki , pm = e y pm .

Al B k
n

(18)

(22)

A B
i

F
= x1 wlk
q lk1

(23)

F
= x 2 wlk
q lk2

(24)

F
= wlk
q lk3

(25)

4.

Diabetic Mellitus

Diabetes is a disease in which the body does not

produced or properly used the insulin hormone. Insulin is a
hormone that is needed to convert sugar, starches and other
food into energy needed for daily life. The cause of diabetes
continues to be a mystery, although both genetics and
environmental factors such as obesity and lack of exercise
appear to play major roles.
There are two major types of diabetes; type 1 and
type 2. Type 1 diabetes is usually diagnosed in children and
young adults, and was previously known as juvenile
diabetes. In type 1 diabetes, the body does not produced
insulin. Insulin is necessary for the body to be able to use
sugar. Sugar is the basic fuel for the cells in the body, and
insulin takes the sugar from the blood into the cells.
Type 2 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes.
In type 2 diabetes, either the body does not produce enough
insulin or the cells ignored the insulin. Insulin is necessary
for the body to be able to use the sugar. Sugar is the basic
fuel for the cells in the body, and insulin takes the sugar
from the blood into the cells. When glucose builds up in the
blood instead of going into cells, it can cause two problems:
cells may be starved for energy and over time, high blood
glucose levels may hurt eyes, kidneys, nerves or heart.
5.

Prima Indians Diabetes Dataset

By consideration y as target value and y as network

output, the performance index of the error is calculated as:

E =

1 *
y y
2

(26)

The final backpropagation algorithm is summarized

bellow:

x Apm
=
l

y F pm
E
=
.
e

F pm x Apm
x Apm
l
l

= e y pm .

The Pima Indians diabetes dataset consists of data

used to identify cases of diabetes from a 768 samples by
using eight diagnostic features. It is part of the Proben1 data
suite [22], and was used in this research following the
guidelines of the Proben1 benchmarking methodology.
The inputs described below are considered significant
risk factors for diabetes sufferer. The input variables are:

(27)

pm

F
x Apm
l

Apml = ey pm .

F pm
Apml

(28)

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Number of times pregnant (PREGNANT)

Plasma glucose concentration in an oral glucose
tolerance test (GTT)
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg)(BP)
Triceps sldn fold thickness (mm)(SKIN)
Serum insulin (pU/ml) (INSULIN)
Body mass Index (BMI)
Diabetes pedigree function (DPF)
Age (YEARS)

Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008
DPF is a synthesis of the diabetes mellitus history in
relatives and the genetic relationship of those relatives to
the subject. It provides a measure of the expected genetic
influence of affected and unaffected relatives on the
subject's eventual diabetes risk.
6.

Simulations and Results

and conventional methods. The average performance values

for 4 and 8 input variables are shown in Table 1 and Table 2
respectively. In these tables column S describes the number
of neurons for MLP and RBF networks and number of
fuzzy rules for ANFIS and ANFIS-GMDH structures.
Column Time describe the average execution time (second)
over these 10 independent runs.

In this part the proposed method is compared against

three conventional methods such as MLP, RBF and ANFIS.
The first approach relies on using 8 input variables while
for the second comparison procedure, 4 input variables are
used.
In the case we have 4 input variables, the network
structure shown in Figure 3 is employed, where the input
variable x1, x2, x3 and x4 are the number of times pregnant,
plasma glucose concentration in an oral glucose tolerance
test, body mass index and diabetes pedigree respectively.
For 8 input variables, we employed the network structure
shown in Figure 4 where the input variable x1, x2,, x8 are
the features introduced in section 5 respectively. In these
simulations MLP, RBF, ANFIS and ANFIS-GMDH
network are studied.

Figure 4. Network for Pima dataset with 8 input variables

Table 1. RESULTS FROM 4 FEATURES OF THE PIMA INDIANS

DIABETES DATASET
Network

Figure 3. Network for Pima dataset with 4 input variables

For MLP with 4 input variables the highest

performance is obtained when the network consists of two
hidden layers with first and second layer consists of 8 and
12 neurons respectively. For RBF with 4 input variables the
best performance is obtained when the hidden layer consists
of 60 neurons. For MLP with 8 input variables the best
performance is obtained when the network consists of two
hidden layers with first and second layer consists of 15 and
20 neurons respectively. For RBF with 8 input variables the
highest performance is obtained when the hidden layer
consists of 100 neurons.
For ANFIS and ANFIS-GMDH networks with 4 and 8
input variables, structures with 2 and 3 membership
functions for each input variables are used.
The 10-fold cross validation is used to comparison of
the classification ability, of the newly proposed algorithm

Train %

Test %

Epochs

Time

MLP

76.85

70.83

500

52.67

21

RBF

84.14

67.71

500

26.21

60

ANFIS (2)

77.98

71.87

200

72.43

16

ANFIS (3)

78.54

72.40

200

238.4

81

ANFIS-GMDH (2)

76.31

73.44

200

70.93

16

ANFIS-GMDH (3)

77.24

75.52

200

84.56

36

ANFIS (n): ANFIS network with n membership function for each input
variable.
ANFIS-GMDH (n): ANFIS-GMDH network with n membership function
for each input variable.
S: Structure of network. Number of neurons for MLP and RBF networks
and number of fuzzy rules for ANFIS and ANFIS-GMDH structures.

Table 2. RESULTS FROM 8 FEATURES OF THE PIMA INDIANS

DIABETES DATASET
Network

Train %

Test %

Epochs

Time

MLP

75.17

66.67

500

56.73

36

RBF

85.45

64.06

500

31.85

100

ANFIS (2)

78.54

71.35

200

722.8

256

ANFIS (3)*

NA

NA

NA

NA

6561

ANFIS-GMDH (2)

77.79

72.92

200

136.4

32

ANFIS-GMDH (3)

78.73

74.63

200

148.6

72

*Due to the number of fuzzy rules, this network structure is not applicable.

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Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics, Kunming, 12-15 July 2008
7.

Conclusions

In this paper a hierarchical Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy

system called ANFIS-GMDH and its application for
predicting the diabetes mellitus has been proposed. In the
proposed method RBF partial descriptions of NF-GMDH
are replaced with ANFIS network with two input variables.
The number of fuzzy rules in antecedent part of
ANFIS-GMDH network is smaller than fuzzy rules in
conventional ANFIS structure while its performance is
comparable to ANFIS. The number of rules and parameters
would increase tremendously (even difficult to manage) for
large number of inputs if a conventional ANFIS structure is
used. This also results in slow convergent speed. Results
show that the proposed method has high performance in
forecasting the diabetic mellitus against other conventional
methods such as MLP, RBF and ANFIS networks.
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