The Calculus of Worlds Historcal Shocking Epidemics

The primitive man was not free from diseases. They led a daily battle against germs
and bacteria that invade their water, food and the environment. However, in those days a
distant epidemic outbreak have repercussions only locally, manifesting itself in small
outbreaks that were fading fast. Only when people began to gather in rural and urban
communities, forming large populations, the spread of contagious diseases reached epidemic
proportions.
An epidemic is triggered when the disease affects a huge number of people who form a
population in a small geographic area. When the number of people affected increases
proportionally with the area of action, we are talking about a pandemy.
Top ten pandemics which devastated the world:

Smallpox,
The Flu of 1918 (the Spanish Flu),
The Black Death,
Malaria,
Tuberculosis,
Cholera,
The Yellow Fever,
The Pandemic Thyphus,
Polomyelitis,
AIDS.

In Europe, the number of deaths was so high that there was a shortage of labor force, which
has increased the demand for worker peasants, increasing their standard of living. Ironically,
even the deadliest outbreak of all time can be considered to have a good side- they have the
characteristic of being predictable.

Smallpox
The smallpox virus has started to affect people thousands of years ago, and the most
common form of it is understood mortality rate of 30%. The symptoms of smallpox are high
fever, itching and rashes on the body. The disease is spread by direct contact with an infected
person or by air, in the case of a narrow confined space.
Despite vaccine discovery, in 1796, smallpox epidemics continued to threaten the world's
population. In 1967, the virus has killed two million people and affected millions more
worldwide. In the same year, the World Health Organization started a campaign to eradicate
the virus by vaccination masses. As a result, 1977 was the last year that were marked cases
of smallpox.
Totally eradicated in the natural world, the virus is only present in the laboratory.

The Flu of 1918

Globally, the number of victims amounted to an astronomical figure: between 50 and 100
million people. Because of the large number of people killed and the affected large area,
many consider the 1918 flu pandemic as the largest one in history.
Even if we talk about the flu, a treatable disease now, the virus that caused devastation in that
year was different. It was the H1N1 aviar virus.

Malaria
Malaria in humans is caused by a protozoan parasite called Plasmodium. It is related to
Plasmodium vivax Plasmodium falciparum and is responsible for most malaria infections.
Once in the blood, they grow inside red blood cells, destroying them in the process.
Symptoms include fever, chills, sweating, muscle aches and headaches. The manifestations of
the disease can even lead to death.
Although great efforts have been made to eradicate this disease, malaria continues to pose
problems especially in sub-Saharan African region, which was excluded from the areas
sprayed with insecticide to the endangering mosquitoes. Every year, between 350 and 500
million cases occur in this region. Of these, one million end is death.

Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis is one of the most "longevive" diseases that the human race have had to face.
Tuberculosis roots are so firmly planted in the history of mankind care that ravages
testimony that caused them are written in both ancient and Egyptian mummies DNA.
Caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the disease is extremely dangerous

because it is air-borne. Targets bacteria are the lungs and the disease is manifested by chest
pain, weakness, weight loss, fever, night sweats and coughing up blood. In some cases, the
bacteria can affect the brain and kidneys.
Since the 1600s, the epidemic of tuberculosis, known as the Great White Plague, devastated
the European population for about 200 years, killing every seventh carrier. Later,
tuberculosis has become a constant problem in the American colonies. Even the late
nineteenth century, 10% of all deaths were caused by tuberculosis.
In 1944, doctors have developed an antibiotic against microbe called streptomycin. The
results were immediate and after thousands of years of suffering humanity to victory over the
disease which the Greeks called it Phthisis, wasting disease. But the victory is not a final one.
Despite discovering the cure, tuberculosis continues to infect 8 million people, of which 2
million are victims annually.

Cholera
Cholera is caused by Vibrio cholerae which is an intestinal bacteria. Typically, the disease is
not very violent in manifestation. Only five percent of those who contract the disease
manifested severe symptoms of vomiting, diarrhea and cramps in the legs, a condition
which leads to rapid dehydration that ends with entering into a state of shock. Most
immune systems are unable to cope with the cholera infection, but only if patients stay
hydrated long enough to defeat the disease. The bacteria can be spread by close physical
contact, but the usual form of the bacterium is transmitted through food and water.
Silent pandemic continues today. In 1991, 300,000 people were ill with cholera, and 4000 of
them died after contracting the bacteria.

AIDS (Acquired Immuno-Deffieciency Syndrome)

Appearance (modern) AIDS in the 80s led to the outbreak of a pandemic that has taken
over 25 million lives from 1981 to present. According to recent statistics, about 33.3
million people are identified as carriers of HIV. Of these, only 2.1 million died in 2007.
AIDS is caused by the human immunodeficiency virus - HIV.
Experts have recently changed their opinion and no longer considers the global AIDS
pandemic! Despite restricting the number of possible victims, AIDS still kills more adults
than all wars and conflicts together.

Yellow fever
Among the diseases that have "surfed" from Africa in America lies The Yellow Fever. The
manifestation of the disease was so severe that decimated entire colonies and cities. When
Napoleon sent an army of 33,000 soldiers in North America, 29,000 of them were killed
by yellow fever. Napoleon was so shocked by the losses that he decided it was not worth to
take a risk so high for this area, therefore France sold the United States.
Yellow fever, like malaria, is transmitted through mosquito bites. Typical symptoms include
fever, chills, headache, muscle pain and vomiting. Their intensity can vary from medium to
deathly. Severe infections can lead to bleeding, shock, kidney and liver failure. Degradation
of the liver causing yellowing of the skin, gives the name of the condition. Despite treatment
and measures taken, the epidemic persists in South America and Africa.

Epidemic Typhus
Epidemic typhus symptoms include headaches, loss of appetite and increasing temperature.
Fever occurs rapidly and is accompanied by chills and nausea. Untreated, the disease affects
blood circulation which is manifested by local gangrene, pneumonia and kidney disease.
Exhaustion caused by high temperature can lead eventually to delirium, coma and heart
attack. Improved treatments and modern sanitary conditions considerably slowed the
spread of disease, but there are still short bursts in South America, Africa and Asia.
Poliomyelitis
The culprit for this disease is a virus that attacks the human nervous system. It is transmitted
by faecal virus circulation in unsanitary environments is through food and water. The first
symptoms are fever, fatigue, headache, vomiting, leg pain and stiffness. Hence, in one of the
200 cases is installed paralysis. In general, it affects the muscles, but it is possible that
disease to spread to the muscles that facilitate breathing, with most often fatal results.
Currently, there is no effective treatment of polio, but doctors managed to develop an effective
vaccine in the early 50s. Since then, the number of polio cases has decreased dramatically in
developed countries. However, the disease has not disappeared. Polio vaccination
campaigns taking place globally declared aim to completely eradicate this disease.

The Black Death

The Plague was introduced in Italy (Sicily) in 1347, brought from the East where proliferate
years .In few years has spread to Europe at a rate of 200-400 miles / year creating the
largest outbreak hold history. About a quarter of the population died (in 3 years!). After
last epidemiaa (about 1350) a second outbreak occurred in Germany in 1356. Then, periodic
episodes of plague occurs every few years, but none of the as severe as in 1347.

A widespread belief is that The Black Death, ceased to be a problem after "The Great Plague
of London" ("Great Plague of London"), but it is far from truth. The last great pandemic
began in 1850 and over and over official, according to the World Health Organization, in
1959 only assigning more than 13 millions of deaths . The Black Death arrived in America
(North) around 1900 (front moved with aprox.35 of miles / year). The disease is carried by
more than 30 mammalians which include squirrels, bats, prairie dogs, mice etc.

Mathematics
Applied mathematics is the enhancement of knowledge of mathematical formalism needs of
other sciences (physics, computer science, biology, chemistry), tending to solve problems set
in concrete terms. Understanding a particular physical, biological, etc.phenomenon lead to a
mathematical model that takes into account a number of parameters.
The "Butterfly"effect can be illustrated by Lorenzs famous phrase "A butterfly wing beat in
Brazil may result in a tornado in Texas" .
This phenomenon shows that things are sometimes so complicated that is impossible to be
predicted their development and shows that sometimes an entire population (insects, larvae,
parasites, microorganisms) may disappear "without reason", or dangerously increase,
reaching invasion.
Keeping the dynamic of the phenomenon under control means, in fact, influencing
decisively the parameters of it.

The spread of the Black Death in Europe (1347-1350)

In 1347, there were about 85 million people in Europe which gives a population density of
S=50/square mile;
D-diffusion coefficient,
r-coefficient transmisie.
Suppose that the spread of news is governed by D. Then, the time required to traverse a
distance L is O. Suppose news and gossip circulating minor at the time of 100 miles / year
which gives a valuation of D. The probability that the disease can be transmitted from fleas to
humans is expressed by r. Noble (1974) estimated r. It took an average of 2 weeks infection
(probably too much) which gives a mortality rate of 15 deaths / year. After this formula we
can calculate the rate of propagation:

1
2

V 2( rSD ) 1
rS

1
2

140mile / an

Although this rate is lower than 200-400 miles / year (Langer, 1964) it is not reasonable to
estimate approximate values to the unknown (undetermined parameters).

Black Plague is by far the most lethal epidemy in history. In 13-year of reign, the pandemic
had costed the world more than 75 million deaths, including one third of Europe.

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March 27,2008
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1993
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Edit.All Elemente de teoria haosului
Ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pest
Morfologia formelor:Alain Boutot Nemira 1966