Probability & Statistical Modelling

Assignment
Page 1 of 4

QUESTION 1 (20 marks)

(a)

A manufacture of MP3 player purchases a particular microchip call LV-35, from three
suppliers: Wall Electronics, Slumb Component and Ohm Venture. 30 percent of the
LV-35 chips are purchased from Wall Electronics, 20 percent from Slumb
Components and the remaining 50 percent from Ohm Venture. The manufacturer has
extensive histories on the three suppliers and known that 3 percent of the LV-35 chips
from Wall Electronics are defective, 5 percent of chips from Slumb Components are
defective and 4 percent of the chips purchased from Ohm Venture are defective.
(i)
Construct a tree diagram of MP3 manufacturing problem.
(3 marks)
When the LV-35 chips arrive at the manufacturer, they are placed directly in a bin and
not inspected or otherwise identified by supplier. A worker selects a chip for
installation in a MP3 player and finds it defective.
(ii)
What is the probability that it was manufactured by Slumb Components?
(2 marks)
(iii)
What is the probability that the chip is produced by Ohm Venture?
(2 marks)
(iv)
Complete all the information for joint and posterior probability in the table
below:
Event
Ai
Wall
Slumb
Ohm

(b)

Prior
Probability
P(Ai)
0.30
0.20
0.50

Conditional
Probability
P(B1|Ai)
0.03
0.05
0.04

Joint
Probability
P(Ai and B1)

Posterior
Probability
P(Ai|B1)

(3 marks)
A three-figure number, not less than 100, is to be made up using three digits selected
at random from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 without using the same digit twice
in any number.
(i)

Show that the total possible number of numbers is 648.

(2 marks)

(ii)

Calculate the probabilities:

(A)
that the number is even,
(B)
that the number is divisible by 5,
(C)
that the number is greater than 600,
(D)
that the number is even and greater than 600.
(8 marks)

QUESTION 2 (20 marks)

(a)

Level 2

For each of the experiments described below, state, giving a reason, whether a
binomial distribution is appropriate.
Experiment 1
A bag contains black, white and red marbles which are selected at random, one at a
time with replacement. The colour of each marble is noted.

Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation

2016

Probability & Statistical Modelling

Assignment
Page 2 of 4

Experiment 2
This experiment is a repeat of Experiment 1 except that the bag contains black and
white marbles only.

(b)

(c)

Experiment 3
This experiment is a repeat of Experiment 2 except that marbles are not replaced after
selection.
(6 marks)
In a large city 1 person in 5 is left-handed.
(i)
Find the probability that in a random sample of 10 people
(A)
exactly 3 will be left-handed,
(1 mark)
(B)
more than half will be left-handed.
(3 marks)
(ii)
Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of left-handed people in a
random sample of 25 people.
(2 marks)
(iii)
How large must a random sample be if the probability that it contains at least
one left-handed person is to be greater than 0.95?
(3 marks)
In the Fastgrow Market Garden plants are inspected for the presence of the deadly red
angus leaf bug. The number of bugs per leaf is known to follow a Poisson distribution
with mean one. What is the probability that any one leaf on a given plant will have
been attacked (at least one bug is found on it)?
A random sample of twelve plants is taken. For each plant ten leaves are selected at
random and inspected for these bugs. If more than eight leaves on any particular plant
have been attacked then the plant is destroyed. What is the probability that exactly
two of these twelve plants are destroyed?
(5 marks)

QUESTION 3 (20 marks)

(a)

(b)

Level 2

Batteries for a transistor radio have a mean life under normal usage of 160 hours, with
a standard deviation of 30 hours. Assuming that battery life follows a normal
distribution,
(i)
calculate the percentage of batteries which have a life between 150 hours and
180 hours,
(2 marks)
(ii)
calculate the range, symmetrical about the mean, within which 75% of the
battery lives lie,
(6 marks)
Machine components are mass-produced at a factory. A customer requires that the
components should be 5.2 cm long but they will be acceptable if they are within limits
5.195 cm to 5.205 cm. The customer tests the components and finds that 10.75% of
those supplied are over-size and 4.95% are under-size. Find the mean and standard
deviation of the lengths of the components supplied assuming that they are normally
distributed.
(5 marks)
Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation
2016

Probability & Statistical Modelling

Assignment
Page 3 of 4

If three of the components are selected at random what is the probability that one is
under-size, one over-size and one satisfactory?
(2 marks)
If the standard deviation of the machine producing the components is altered without
altering the mean so that 4.95% are over-size, what will be the new standard deviation
and what percentage of components will now be under-size?
(5 marks)
QUESTION 4 (20 marks)
You are required to collect data from a random sample of 30 Asia Pacific University (A.P.U.)
students by using the simple questionnaire below. The original respondent sheets must be
submitted as attachment of the assignment. Hardcopies of all statistical results obtained by
using SPSS must be submitted with the assignment.

Respondent Number:
1.

Gender

2.

Level

____________________

___ Male

___ Female

Foundation
Diploma
Degree
Postgraduate
3.

How many times do you use the bus services in a week? ________

What do you think about the shuttle bus services for the university? Please circle accordingly.
Very
Very satisfied
Satisfied
Neutral
Dissatisfied
4.
Location of the
bus stop.
1
2
3 dissatisfied
4
5
1Cleanliness of the
2 bus.
3
5.
1 4 2
3
45
5
6.

Frequency of the bus service.

7.

Condition of the seats.

8.

Overall condition of the bus.

Tasks:
(a)

Level 2

Enter the collected data into an SPSS spreadsheet. Each column of your data should
be labeled to represent the respective variable. Use Print Screen to exhibit your data
sheet (both data view and variable view), and submit the hardcopies together with
your assignment.
(4 marks)

Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation

2016

Probability & Statistical Modelling

(b)
(c)

Assignment
Page 4 of 4

For each variable, use appropriate charts/descriptive statistics to summarise the data.
A printout of the output must be submitted with your assignment.
(8 marks)
Describe and interpret your output.
(8 marks)

QUESTION 5 (20 marks)

Thomas Manufacturing Company has $100,000 available to invest. John Thomas the CEO of
the company of would like to either to expand his production, invest the money in stocks, or
purchase the certificate of deposit from the bank. Of course the unknown is whether the
economy will continue at a high level or there will be a recession. He estimates the likelihood
of a recession at 0.20. Whether there is a recession or not, the certificate of deposit will result
in a gain of 6 percent. If there is a recession, he predicts a 10 percent loss if he expands his
production and 5 percent loss if he invests in stocks. If there is not a recession, an expansion
of production will result in a 15 percent gain, and stock investment will produce a 12 percent
gain.
(a)
Design a payoff table.
(6 marks)
(b)
What decision would you recommend based on the use of the optimistic, pessimistic,
Hurwicz ( = 0.65) and minimax regret approaches?
(6 marks)
(c)
Compute the expected monetary value for each decision. What decision would you
recommend?
(4 marks)
(d)
Compute the expected value of perfect information and interpret its meaning.
(4 marks)

Level 2

Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation

2016