MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 MAR 2016

112.65

111.30

109.95

109.05

108.60

107.70

107.25

105.90

104.55

COPPER

29 APR 2016

360.50

349.30

338.10

332.60

326.90

321.40

315.70

304.50

293.30

CRUDE OIL

18 MAR 2016

2838

2662

2486

2401

2310

2225

2134

1958

1782

GOLD

05APR 2016

31127

30553

29979

29658

29405

29084

28831

28257

27683

LEAD

31 MAR 2016

131.45

127.60

123.70

122.30

119.90

118.45

116

112.20

108.30

NATURAL GAS 28 MAR 2016 137.30 132.30 127.30 124.50 122.30 119.50 117.30 112.30

107.30

NICKEL

31 MAR 2016

625.10

613.10

601.10

595.20

589.10

583.20

577.10

565.10

553.10

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

40070

38998

37926

37258

36854

36186

35782

34710

33638

ZINC

31 MAR 2016

129.50

126.70

123.90

122.60

121.10

119.80

118.30

115.50

112.70

PP

S1

S3

S4

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

ALUMINIUM

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

S2

31 MAR 2016 116.90

114

111.10

109.65

108.15 106.75

105.30 102.40

99.50

325.70 319.10

311.10 296.40

281.80

COPPER

29 APR 2016

369.70

355

340.40

333.70

CRUDE OIL

18 MAR 2016

3116

2836

2556

2436

2276

2156

1996

1716

1436

GOLD

05 APR 2016

32763

31628

30493

29915

29358

28780

28223

27088

25953

LEAD

31 MAR 2016 136.95

131.15

125.35

123.10

119.55 117.30

113.75 107.95

102.15

NATURAL GAS

28 MAR 2016 156.30

145.60

134.90

128.30

124.20 117.60

113.50 102.80

92.10

NICKEL

.
31 MAR 2016 684.20

653.50

622.80

606

592.10 575.30

561.40 530.70

500

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

42530

40720

38910

37750

37100

35290

131

125.95

123.60

120.90 118.60

ZINC

31 MAR 2016 136.05

35940

33480

31670

115.80 110.80

105.75

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL CRUDEOIL MAR BELOW 2219 TGT 2118 SL 2321
BUY ZINC MAR ABOVE 121.70 TGT 123.70 SL 119.65

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL ZINC MAR BELOW 120 TGT 118 SL 122.10 - TGT ACHEIVED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29 MAR 2016 69.6 69.45

5

69.30

69.15

69.10

69

68.90

68.70

68.55

GBPINR

29 MAR 2016 77.7 77.25

5

76.70

76.35

76.20

75.85

75.70

75.15

74.65

EURINR

29 MAR 2016 98.9 98.15

0

97.35

96.80

96.55

96.05

95.75

95

94.20

JPYINR

29 MAR 2016 62.3 61.95

5

61.55

61.35

61.20

61

60.80

60.45

60.05

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

USDINR

29 MAR 2016 70.4 69.95

0

69.50

69.25

69

68.80

68.55

68.10

67.60

GBPINR

29 MAR 2016 79.5 78.40

0

77.30

76.65

76.15

75.55

75.05

73.95

72.85

EURINR

29 MAR 2016 105. 102.80

70

99.85

98.10

96.90

95.15

94

91.05

88.10

JPYINR

29 MAR 2016 64.2 63.20

0

62.20

61.70

62.20

60.70

60.20

59.25

58.25

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL EURINR MAR BELOW 75.35 TGT 74.70 SL 76.10
SELL JPYINR MAR BELOW 60.80 TGT 60.40 SL 61.30

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY EURINR MAR ABOVE 77 TGT 78 SL 76 - NOT EXECUTED.

 NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

SYOREFIDR

20 APR 2016

SYBEANIDR

20 APR 2016

3966

3897

3828

3798

3759

3729

3690

3621

3552

RMSEED

20 APR 20165

4061

4020

3979

3960

3938

3919

3897

3856

3815

JEERAUNJHA

20 APR 2016

14653 14498 14343

14251

14188 14096 14033 13878

13723

CHANA

20 APR 2016

4546

643.50 636.75

R2
630.

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

627.60 623.30 620.80 616.50 609.80

S4
603

4442

4338

4298

4234

4194

4130

4026

3922

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

SYOREFIDR

20 APR 2016

SYBEANIDR

20 APR 2016

4179

4045

3911

3840

3777

3706

3643

3509

3375

RMSEED

20 APR 2016

4199

4109

4019

3980

3929

3890

3839

3749

3659

JEERAUNJHA

20 APR 2016

15560 15095 14630

14395

14165 13930 13700 13235

12770

CHANA

20 APR 2016

4711

4318

4213

3715

690.45 668.55 646.65 635.90 624.75

4545

4379

614

4152

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

SELL JEERA APR BELOW 14900 TGT 14560 SL 15200
BUY RM SEED APR ABOVE 3970 TGT 4040 SL 3897

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 6440 TGT 6320 SL 6555 - TGT ACHIEVED

602.85 580.95

4047

3881

559.05

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Bullion
Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday, as the dollar and global shares rose, but fund buying persisted as
investors expected a G20 summit would produce little in the way of a coordinated stimulus program. Financial
leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions and a
lack of wider consensus on how to fix the problems. Concerns that a slowing global economy could eventually
push the United States into recession eased as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected in
the fourth quarter. Despite Friday's losses, gold has rediscovered its role as a shelter for risk averse investors.
Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the top bullion exchange traded fund, held steady on Thursday, after rising to their
highest since March 2015 on Wednesday. Economists had expected fourth quarter GDP growth to be revised
down to 0.4%. The positive surprise underpinned the dollar and sent gold prices sharply lower. Hedge funds
and money managers raised their bullish stances in COMEX gold to a one-year high in the week to Feb. 23,
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest
gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.27 percent to 762.41 tonnes on Friday, the highest
in about a year. With US economy staying on the sweet spot the possibilities of further interest rate hikes in
this year have rose significantly from the beginning of this month, which has started to put pressure on gold
prices . Domestically we have a big day as the government is going to present the general budget for the year
2016-2017, where it is expected to announce a policy to curb the gold imports which is putting burden on the
current account deficit of the nation. Amidst the big economic event the markets can turn volatile as the prices
on MCX are already trading at a discount in comparison to the COMEX prices in anticipation of a possible
import duty cut .For the day we recommend a range based trade in gold.

Energy
MCX crude oil prices on Friday gained more than 5%, registering at Rs.2316/bbl for March month contract.On
weekly basis, WTI and Brent crude oil for April month contract gained around 3.20% and 6.30% respectively,
whereas MCX crude oil for March month contract gained around 5%.Crude oil prices last week showed some
relief as the market witnessed products side inventory levels moving down. Rest other than the products side
inventories, crude stocks and stocks at Cushing was most negative. Cushing stocks moved more than 65
million barrels and are near to its threshold levels.Overall crude stockpiles as per last week crossed 507 million
barrels, which is all time high levels. Apart from this, if we see the fall in Baker Hughes rig count data, its
quite supportive for crude prices in long term. 10 continuous weekly fall in active crude oil rigs have left just
400 operational rigs in the US region. Average levels as shown on right hand side have gone down from a
couple of months. International agencies are predicting the same to continue its downtrend till 2017, which is
actually good for crude oil prices. Apart from this, refinery maintenance shutdown period is going on in the US
region, during which they will produce less products and thus inventory withdrawals can be seen and also
gasoline demand will surge.
U.S. natural gas futures slid Friday on steady forecasts for two more weeks of
warmer-than-normal weather, a day after the prior front month contract expired at its lowest level since 1999.
Heating demand since the start of the industry's November-March winter season was running about 12 percent
below normal in the lower 48 U.S. states due to the warming effect of the El Nino weather pattern.
Meteorologists predict that warmth will continue into March, with heating demand expected to be 26 percent

below normal, according to Thomson Reuters Analytic. Despite the lack of heating demand, however,
consumers have used about 1 percent more gas than usual so far this winter as the power sector burns record
levels of the fuel due to its low price compared with coal, which carries higher transport and environmental
costs.

Base Metal
Copper prices surged on Friday to their highest level in more than three months as investors hoped for a
recovery in metals demand following stronger than expected U.S. economic data and a G20 policymakers
meeting. Industrial metals joined rallies in oil and share markets as investors put fears about a struggling global
economy on the back burner. U.S. consumer spending rose solidly in January while fourth quarter economic
growth was revised up to 1 percent, higher than expected. Some analysts were wary, however, due to concern
about growth in top metals consumer China. Copper demand growth in China slowed last year to about 2
percent and is not expected to improve significantly this year. China accounts for about half of global demand
estimated at around 22 million tonnes. The metals market appeared to shrug off a firmer U.S. currency, which
makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms, while oil rose as traders reversed
bets on lower prices. Stock markets rose as G20 policymakers meeting in Shanghai sought common ground on
how to reboot a struggling global economy in the face of renewed financial and political risks. Setting the tone
for the Shanghai meeting of the Group of 20, China's central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, said Beijing still had
the room and tools to support the world's second largest economy
Industrial prices surged on Friday to their highest level in more than
three months as investors hoped for a recovery in metals demand following stronger than expected U.S.
economic data and a G20 policymakers meeting. The Baltic Exchange confirmed on Friday it had received a
number of "exploratory approaches" after the Singapore Exchange Ltd revealed it was seeking to buy the
business which has been the hub of the global shipping market for centuries.
The zinc price has pushed above its sister metal lead for the first time since November and is likely to remain
ascendant in coming months as speculators step up zinc buying on forecasts of shortages while l

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Agri Sector Eye on Budget 2016
The Budget needs to outline measures to restore the health of the rural economy without increasing
unproductive subsidy spend. Rating firm CRISIL highlight six broad areas that require innovative policy
solutions:
1. Expand irrigation cover: In India, poor irrigation cover exposes agriculture to shocks from uneven rainfall
patterns. At the all-India level, irrigation covers only 46.9% of the total cropped area, exposing the rest to
monsoon shocks. Around 84% of pulses, 80% of horticulture, 72% of oil seeds, 64% of cotton and 42% of
cereals are cultivated in unirrigated conditions. The combined spending of Center and states on irrigation has
been a mere 2% per year of their total spending in the last five years.

2. Extend direct benefits transfer (DBT) scheme to food and fertiliser subsidy: A critical step to funnelling
resources into agriculture will require plugging leakages in the existing public distribution system (PDS). As

per a 2015 study by Gulati and Saini3, 46.7% of the off-taken grain is leaked from PDS. This is the gap
between the grains off-taken by each state and consumption by the targeted consumer for the year 2011-12.
Extending the DBT scheme to include food subsidy in addition to LPG transfers will help curb losses due to
leakages and result in significant savings for the government.

3. Farm investment versus farm subsidy: After coming to power, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
government promised a technology-driven second Green Revolution in India.
Encourage production by making agriculture profitable: Profitability at the farm is low and declining as cost of
inputs continues to soar. And if that werent enough, input and output cost dynamics have been turning
unfavorable year after year, reducing the farmers profit margin.

4. Big push to crop insurance: One way to mitigate the pain from crop losses due to weather shocks is
through crop insurance. But in India, coverage remains low. For example, the Universal National Crop
Insurance Scheme, which merges all existing schemes, only covers 25% of all farmers and 20% of the area.An
AssochamSkymet survey (April 2015) found that crop insurance is not a natural choice for farmers. Only 19%
of respondents have their crops insured, exposing the rest to the vagaries of monsoon. Of the uninsured, 46%
were aware but not interested, 24% said the facility was not available to them, while the rest (11%) could not
afford to pay the insurance premium.

India to deliver 8,500 MT imported Pulses shortly:

India has released total 116334.85 MT of pulses seized as pert of the de-hoarding operations, in the market as
on February 23, 2016, Ram Vilas Paswan, Food Minister, informed Rajyasabha in a written reply on Friday.
The Minister added that import of pulses is being made by Government through MMTC. Delivery of 8,500
MT pulses is expected shortly.
ndia has been under severe pressure owing to the shortfall in pulses production and subsequent rise in prices.
The rise in the prices of pulses is due to several factors leading to demand & supply mismatch. Hoarding is one
such factor. De-hoarding operations are carried out by the State Governments under the Essential Commodities
Act, 1955. All the States have been requested to enforce the Act effectively, the Minister said.As per 2nd
Advance Estimates for 2015-16, India expects total pulses production of 17.33 million tonnes during 2015-16
is marginally higher than the previous years production of 17.15 million tonnes. India imports pulses from
countries like Canada. India is Canada's biggest export market for pulses. India is the largest importer of
Canadian lentils so far this year. Analysts from Canada expects India will continue to be the strongest importer
for the rest of 2016 as well as next year.

Chana
During Fridays trading session NCDEX Chana April opened negative but later it traded upside during most
part of the day and ended the session positive only. NCDEX Chana April futures ended the day at Rs 4258 per
quintal which is 1.8% up against the previous day. Economic survey 2015 20 showed that in India most of
the land dedicated to growing pulses in each state is unirrigated and the national output of pulses comes
predominantly from un-irrigated land. According to government sources, 116334.85 tonnes of pulses have
been disposed off in the market out of 126758.59 tonnes seized from hoarders. In Maharashtra, 78,232.35
tonnes of pulses have been offloaded out of 80,167.44 tonnes seized from hoarders, while in Karnataka,

23,708.34 tonnes have been disposed out of 25,545.83 tonnes. Pulses output is expected to increase marginally
to 17.33 million tonnes in 2015-16 crop year from last year's 17.15 million tonnes though it's still not sufficient
to meet domestic demand. Every year around 4-5 million tonnes of pulses is getting imported in the country.
According to the Canadian Grain Commission Canadian pea and lentil exports are slowing down, with only
10,200 tonnes of peas and 600 tonnes of lentils moved during the week ended February 21.

Turmeric
Turmeric futures extended their bearish trade on back of negative sentiments prevailing in the market. Most
active contract opened lower; however traded in both directions for major parts of previous trade. Turmeric
April futures closed the trade at Rs. 8710 per quintal, with a loss of 0.6% w.r.t previous close. During previous
trade at Nizamabad, turmeric traded at Rs. 4025-931 for Finger variety and 4011-8279 for Bulb and arrivals
were reported at 702.9 tonnes. Turmeric Erode finger and Bulb traded steady in range of Rs. 9300-9500 and
Rs.9000-9200 per quintal respectively. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 279 tons as
on 26th Feb 2016.

Jeera
Jeera futures resumed down during Fridays trading session after the two days of recovery. Long liquidation by
the investors along with improved supplies of fresh crops in the spot markets pulled down the prices from
higher levels. Therefore, jeera future prices traded and settled the day on at Rs.14130 per quintal with 0.4%
losses. On spot market front, Unjha spot market in Gujarat, prices hovered in the range of Rs.13700- 17000 per
quintal. While at Rajkot market, prices were in the range of Rs.12400- 15500 per kg. The total arrivals reported
at Rajkot market were around 180 tonnes. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 230
tonnes as on 26 Feb 2016.

Caradamom
Cardamom futures resumed its trade in downward direction tracking weak supply and demand factors in the
market.Cardamom March futures closed the trade at Rs. 666.10 per kg, losing 0.93% from its previous close
while the April futures closed with loss of 0.58% from its previous trade. Expectation of pick up in export
demand limited the major losses for turmeric futures. During previous auction, cardamom arrivals were at
108300.2 kgs, higher by 87704.8 kgs from previous auction. Prices traded at Rs. 950 per kg, up by Rs. 93 from
its previous price for premium and Rs. 581.68 per kg on an average.Demand is good for cardamom since
almost complete daily arrivals are being sold. However, lack of availability of quality material for export is
limiting exporters from active buying in the market. As on 25th Feb 2016, MCX warehouses have 32.700 MT
eligible for delivery.

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