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National University of modern

Languages

Economics Department

Synopsis of MSC Economics 4th Semester


Topic:

DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH


IN PAKISTAN

Supervisor:

Dr. Amtul Hafeez

Submitted by:

Mr. Taha Najam Raja


Msc 4th (3027)

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Introduction
The total price of commodities produced and services provide in a state in the period of one
year is known as economic growth .Every country has a first and priority is economic growth
of its country. Every nation has the desire, known as a developed country in the world.
Developing countries are able to control poverty; to improve their quality of life,
strengthening their political and social institutions and achieve stability. We know that
without increasing the GDP of each country can not be said to be well developed country in
the world. Economic growth is the flow of money capital. The persistence of the economy is
economic growth. It may be a determinant of ways in which private spending, the budget
deficit and foreign debt. But in this research and our main objective is to determine the
economic growth through investment, government spending, taxes, savings, inflation, foreign
direct investment and securities markets. Our study aims to determine the factors that
influence positive or negative economic growth. And my motivation is to check how the
economic growth of Pakistan going up.
In the 1980s the costs of operating the government has a good outcome for economic growth.
On this occasion, time Pakistan is facing many difficulties. Pakistan per capita is very small in
1990 and 1995 for several reasons. According to the World Bank, there were seven countries,
the decline in low-income countries and Pakistan is one for the government faces operating
costs and taxes were very poor (GNP of US $ Less than 730) .Government expenditures,
consumption and taxes is the best arrangement for economic growth. They all have a result in
the nation, whether positive or negative. If the government of Pakistan done it then increases
to balance economic wealth and economic growth in Pakistan, but Pakistan fast moving
economic policies were weak and unbalanced in 1995 to 2000. In 2000 to 2006 government
build the economic policies in diverse sectors of economy like as cotton ginning cotton
ginning, both rice and cotton, Health Program, cotton ginning and flour mills for better
economic growth policies. In provision of dollar our currency is valued and numerous
policies also valued in this period.
In 2007-2010 economic state of Pakistan turns out to be most horrible and no footstep are to
be taken in to the good judgment of capita, industrialized, Banking and goods plants and
factories. Hard to introduce energy crisis and is one of the main problems of the Pakistani
economy. Because of these difficulties, which are pending at this time many industries in
Pakistan and Pakistan's economic expansion begins to plummet. So the government does not
provide an agreement in this economy so back .Because of high taxes, energy crises and there
is no output for overseas trade so the fabric factories are being stopped. According to Romer
(1986) and Lucas (1988) increasing growth rate depends on the growing and money again.
Fischer (1993) says that inflation negatively associated with economic growth and a positive
result for stable returns to scale, that is why we need a better human capital, venture to arrive
(R & D) and technological developments R & D.
1.4% poor inhabitants live in South Asian countries. There are four components are careful
when formative the long run increase rate employment productivity, person capital, skill and
bodily capital and two approach The income approach, which is from time to time referred to
as GDP (I), is intended by addition up total return to workers, gross earnings for included and
non included firms, and taxes less any subsidy. The spending method is the more common
move toward and is intended by adding total use, investment, administration expenditure and
net exports. Develop country are able to manage Poverty, get better their value of life, make
stronger their supporting and social institution and attain stability. The spine of Economic is
economic growth. It can be determinant from dissimilar ways like private spending, budget
shortage, foreign money owing. But in this investigate primary center is to decide the

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economic growth by administration expenditure, savings, price rises and FDI In 1980s the
administration expenditure has physically powerful result on economic growth. During 1991
to 2000, political stability was most horrible. At the end of 19902 decade United Nations
introduce sanction on Pakistan; due to this our net exports was slowly moving back.
Administration expenditures are rising during this decade. Normally, expenditures on armed
are used to make a decision by war zone region. Pakistan per capita is very short in 1990s to
1995.According to world bank there were seven countries that are lessening low earnings
countries and Pakistan is one of them to look Government spending and duty were very
poorly(GNP of US $ With less than 730).Government Expenditure, use and tax is best
arrangement of economic growth. Pakistani economy policy were feeble and unbalanced in
1995 to 2000.in 2000 to 2006 administration make the economic policy like as cotton
ginning, deal in rice and cotton, health plan ,cotton ginning and flour mills for get better the
financial growth. In terms of dollar our money is valued and some policy also valued in this
time. In 2007-2010 no step are to be in use in to intelligence of capita, developed, Banking
and merchandise plant. Power crisis problem is introduced. So government not provides any
plan in this way economy diminishing .Due to lofty taxes, power crisis and there are no
productive for foreign deal so the cloth factories are being closed. According to Romer (1986)
and Lucas (1988) stable raise in development rate depends on the constant and rising returns
to assets. Fischer (1993) says inflation is unenthusiastically connected with financial growth
and optimistic result on fiscal act and foreign trade markets in long-term. Since 1988,
Pakistans economic managing, have been about completely reliant on SAP (Structural
Adjustment Programmed).The reason of SAP is civilizing the Balance of payment, cut the
economic deficit, improve economic growth and reduce price rises. Improve the balance of
payment from side to side local currency depression, cutting the fiscal shortage; liberalize
trade and falling administration size. Financial growth is based on statement of constant
return of scale, for this reason require to improve being capital, more asset in R&D (research
and development) and technical developments. According to Fager berg (1987) the
modernism and economic increase has strong dealings. In 1980s, the wealth has exposed
about administration expenditures a well-built growth. In 1990 to 1995 the per capita
earnings of Pakistan is very small.the financial performance and currency markets in the
long term.
Since 1988, economic organization in Pakistan, has completely dependent on SAP (Structural
Adjustment Program). The main reason of SAP is improving the Balance of payment, reduce
the fiscal deficit, get better economic growth and reduce inflation. get better the balance of
payment from side to side local currency devaluation, reducing the fiscal deficit, liberalize
trade and declining government size.Economic growth is based on the assumption of
First semi of Zia era was moving a higher rate. After the first half was preceded to 12.8%. As
we know GDP during the Zia era was very good, so our gross investment rose steadily. Next
Zia introduced depression in money to promote net exports. Our Balance of payments became
settled throughout by Zia, because our products had managed to fit a way to promote their
products to their posts. Net wages of Pakistan is symbolically a good example of the current
government. If, however, increases in gross assets, again the increase in private consumption
of goods and services enormous. At the start of Zia decade, administration expenditures were
low, but due to Afghan conflict, armed expenditures became elevated thats result economic
increase of our country. In short, Zia era was good and greatest role form for stabilize
economy. There were also deficit harms like fall in product prices as well as oil, worldwide
depression, and debt crises like increase of debts.

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1.2 Objectives of study:

To find out the relationship among various determinants of economic growth i.e
government expenditure, net exports, savings and domestic investment

To investigate the impact of inflation on economic growth.

To identify the role of government expenditure on economic growth of Pakistan.

1.3 Research Question:

.How saving, investment, net exports, government expenditure and domestic


investment effect GDP growth in the short run and long run?

1.4 Research Hypothesis:


H0: Government expenditure has insignificant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H: Government expenditure has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H0: Net export has insignificant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H: Net export has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H0: Savings has insignificant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H: Savings has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H0: Inflation has insignificant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H: Inflation has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H0: Domestic investment has insignificant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.
H: Domestic investment has significant impact on economic growth of Pakistan.

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1.4 Plan of Study:


In 1st chapter discussed Introduction, objective of the study, Research questions, Research
hypothesis and plan of study and in 2 nd chapter describe about literature review. In 3 rd Chapter
discussed methodology, model specification, explanation of variables and data description. In
chapter 4thexplain empirical results and in chapter 5th have Conclusion and policy implication.

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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
There are a lot of studies which approaches to Economic Growth have been studied. Abstract
base is main because each theory which is connected with economic places of interest on
changed process of Economic Growth. Here diverse approaches to economic growth are
described. This study tells a little set of variables that carry strongly alter in economic growth.
Many economists have checked the impact of on saving the economic growth and establish
diverse results. Carrol and Weil (1994) was deliberate that saving has optimistic result on
economic growth. More saving rates are because of boost in per capita income. Malik and
Baharumshah (2007) was report that countries having more savings rates are also enjoy the
more growth rate and per capita income. Pakistan is a small income emergent country with
feeble capital market and extremely dependent ahead national savings for finance or outlay in
the country. Hassan and Butt (2008) was suggested that raise house saving and goods and
services sell to other countries income could lift the increase rate and decrease the
dependence of the economy on exterior debts. Sajid and Sarfraz (2008) was analyzed
unidirectional short run causality from stage of productivity (GNP) to household and state
savings. Outcome explain that frequently trade, education and employment force in the short
run and long run decide economic growth in Pakistan Iqbal et al (2009) originate that in
short and long-run, profits levels obtain highly important and positive association with the
saving performance in case of Pakistan. Afzal (2009) was analyzed the savings is an actual
crisis in Pakistan as it negatively affect the monetary development. On the other hand
inhabitants growth plays an important role in country because it increase the employment
force participation. Normally, savings are generating from the income. Ahmad and
Mahmood (2013) was analyzed the exchange rate and price rises has a negative impact
on national saving but exchange rate has considerably impact. Do business is positive
effect with national savings in Pakistan because do business cause to increase the profits
and benefit of the civilization in during market economy. Money supply positive
connected with national saving. The boost of the profits level has negatively collision on
national savings.
Investment plays all the time important role in the economy of Pakistan and also its growth.
In history a quantity of economists consider the collision of foreign direct investment on

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economic growth for diverse countries. Brzozowski and Barrell (2003) was deliberate the
collision of exchange rate on foreign direct investment and nation that exchange rate have
unenthusiastic impact on foreign direct investment. Azeem and Nishat (2005) was to look at
the positive and major impact of reform on foreign direct investment and domestic in
Pakistan. In Duasa (2007) was analyzed that the assets inflow throughout FDI has contribute
towards the constancy economic growth and has helpful impact in case of Pakistan. And Falki
(2008) was considered a lot of additional variables were also experienced like household
capital, foreign aid funds, and employment force. Fatima (2010) was studied there economy
and investment rates are little in Pakistan compare to rising countries. The economy rate is
frequently fewer than the venture rate; an important part of the investment spending is
approach from external resources and there is also domestic investment but little portion.
Arbatli (2011) was examined the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment incorporate
country exacting pull factors and universal push factors as well as institutional and
macroeconomic variables Asghar et al.
Farhan and Akram was (2012) analyzed the association between investments and
economic growth the coefficient of appreciation to private sector was main. In this way,
the appreciation to private sector has significant collision on economic growth in the
long run and also in the short run.
For this phase unenthusiastic and insignificant relation was exposed between foreign direct
investment and GDP .Foreign direct investment can have unenthusiastic collision also due to
additional factors such as political volatility, violence and law and regulate situations.
In (2012) the one study was analyzed the economic increase in Pakistan and is unbalanced
and anxious because of overseas debts, political and rule and order circumstances of the
nation. The effect of this research shows a well-built development in foreign direct investment
particularly in industrialized and crop growing sector representing to advanced capital
buildup.
There is a well-built relationship between price rises and economic expansion of any
country, which was show the development of GDP. Subsequent studies shows that
consequences of the price rise and economic growth relations
Farvaque, (2009) was investigate the association between price rises and globalization of
diverse countries by charming the variables CPI, trade ingenuousness, productivity gap and
sell to other countries prices. Ayyoub (2011) was explored the association between

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inflation and economic growth of Pakistan. Inflation has unconstructive and important
result on economic growth.
Li (2006) was deliberate price rises, a tax on actual balance, reduce actual returns to funds
which in twist cause an informational resistance afflict the monetary system. These monetary
market frictions consequences in credit ration and therefore boundary the accessibility of
asset and lastly this decrease in asset adversely impact economic growth.
Aurangzeb (2012) was examines Inflation and exchange rate has positive major result on
stock market. Rate of interest unenthusiastically and considerably influence the stock market
and FDI unimportantly influence the stock prices.
Zakaria (2010) was clarified association between budget shortage and price rises on economic
growth by means of cointegration study in Pakistan. According to this studies steady
advanced budget shortage will guide to add to in high price rises. However, this learn
conclude that in long run price rises is not connected with financial plan deficit but only to the
currency supply and money supply has no essential association with budget shortage. Khan
(2012) was studied that decrease in GDP means lack of food, High price raises rate, lack of
funds, lack of protection and net exports and not getting resources.
Mukhtar and Mubarak (2005) was analyzed the association between price rises and economic
increase of the country. The study show the optimistic association between these two
variables. According to revise, small price rises and small fiscal deficit are not important for
high expansion even over long period. High inflation is not dependable with steady economic
growth. When there are no shock a decrease in inflation rate can make considerably advanced
growth rate.
Mughal and khan (2011) was studied that fiscal shortage generates price increases. According
to this revise, inflation in Pakistan is mainly predictable to indefensible fiscal shortage and
there lives an optimistic association linking in inflation and GDP.
Oseni (2009) was study each and every one variables such as GDP, basic oil prices, foreign
exchange rate and price rises rate were powerfully connected with the stock prices. Rate of
replace and rate of interest are unenthusiastically connected with supply prices. Study has
used the multi association test to examine the link between these variables and supply prices.
In (2011) Edwin and Shajehan was empirically propose that separately from increase in the

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work force, asset in both physical and human capital, as well as small price rises and deal
liberalization polices are necessary for economic growth.
Many studies in history was examined the association among the administration expenses and
GDP growth. Gupta (2002) was indicated that the cuts in current expenses has a better growth
collision than those base on income increases and cuts in capital expenses; they indicate that
in the countries where pay rate determine the use patterns tend to be smallest amount
urbanized, while those that allot higher divide to capital and non-wage merchandise and
services take pleasure in faster economic growth. Anwar (2012) was examined protection
spending in light of apparent and genuine doubts to Pakistans safety and its relations with
economic growth.
Guess and Koford (1984) was discovered the fundamental association between government
expenses and price rises, GNP and private asset. They finished that budget deficit do not
reason change in these variables. Looney (1995) was suggests that in the big developed
sector, the private asset does not suffer from genuine crowding-out linked with the
governments non infrastructural investment program. Iqbal and Satar (2005) was come to
close that government expenses, foreign staff remittances impact economic growth positively
with high significance. But inflation rate, external debt and deterioration state of affairs of
terms of deal are appearing to be connected with economic growth unenthusiastically.
According to neo-classical, dropping the position of private division by crowding out
consequence is significant because it reduce the price rises in the economy; add to in public
money owing increase the interest rate which reduce the price rises in the financial system as
well as the output. The new-Keynesians there their multiplier effect in reply and fight that
they add to in public expenditure will add to demand and thus add to the economic growth.
A number of economists was try to discover the collision of net export on economic growth.
Ahmed and Sohail (2011), was to study aim to find the determinants of import in case of
Pakistan with help of co integration method. It examine the long-run correlation between
Pakistans joint import and major macroeconomic device of final operating cost (GDP
aggregate expenses). This document has two parts. In the first part it covers the total joint
import insist function, and secondly the disaggregate import demand function was investigate.
Erecakar (2011) was analyzed the foreign direct asset; inflation and net export have optimistic
and statistically important collision on GDP growth.
Ahmed and Fatima (2010) was deterioration of terms of trade has an unenthusiastic collision
on economic growth of Pakistan, as it in the end reduce gross domestic product. Sohail (2011)

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was examined that the two part. In the first part it cover the total joint import demand
function, and secondly the disaggregate import demand functions was investigate. Shirazi and
Manap (2004) was analyzed together the short-run and long-run relationship in the middle of
real exports, real import and real output in Pakistan. The study established brawny evidence
of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. Ullah, (2009) examined
unidirectional causality from GDP to exports.
Chaudhary, (2002) was investigated the position of deal volatility on investment and
economic growth. The consequences illustrate that export volatility does not have an effect on
economic growth and asset in Pakistan. Though export volatility could have an effect on
foreign exchange pay and as a consequence it could have unenthusiastic crash on imports and
economic growth. The experiential consequences by Iqbal and Zahid (1998) was make to
known that honesty of trade is positively associated with economic growth while budget
deficit and external money owing decrease growth of output. Iqbal and Satar, (2005) was
approached to end those foreign workers remittances crash economic growth absolutely with
high impact. Public and private asset is also a significant basis of economic growth in the
country.
But price rises rate, external money owing and deterioration situation of terms of trade are
appear to be connected with economic growth unenthusiastically. Lastly, Shahbaz (2009) was
reassesses the crash of a number of macroeconomic variables on economic growth. The
consequences reveal that monetary sectors growth improves the performance of the economy
in the long run. Credit to private part as a share of GDP, used as a substitute for monetary
development, is a good forecaster of economic growth for container of Pakistan. Likewise,
rise in exports and investment increase economic growth while price rises and imports both
decrease economic growth. Lofty economic growth is established to be linked with tiny size
of the state. Edwin and Shajehan (2001) was study to hold up that separately from growth in
the work force, asset in ability and knowledge, as well as low price rises rate and open trade
policies, are significant for economic growth.
Li (2006) was considered that price rises in market, a tax on real balance, reduce actual
income to savings which in circle causes an informational resistance afflict the monetary
system. These monetary market frictions consequences in tribute ration and thus boundary of
the accessibility of asset and finally this decrease in asset unfavorably impacts economic
growth. Mubarak (2005) was analyzed the association linking inflation and economic growth
of the state. The study shows the optimistic association between these two variables.
According to revise, little inflation and small fiscal deficits are not important for elevated

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growth even in excess of long period. High inflation is not dependable with steady economic
growth. When there are no shock a decrease in inflation rate can make considerably advanced
growth rate. Edwin and Shajehan (2001) was empirically proposed that separately from
growth in the employment force, asset in both physical and human capital, as well as small
inflation and trade liberalization polices are necessary for economic growth. Carrol and Weil
(1994) was deliberated that saving has optimistic result on economic growth. Higher saving
rates are because of boost in per capita income. Usually, savings are generating from the
incomes.

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CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
This study is conducted to come across the determination of economic growth of Pakistan.
Annual time series data for the phase of 1980-2012 is used to examine the economic
expansion and its determinants in Pakistan. GDP is dependent variable and other variables are
independent variables.

3.1 Model Specification:


lnY=0+ln(GE)+ln(DS)+(NX) +ln(INF)+(DI)+

Dependent Variable:

(GDP)= Economic Growth (% of economic growth annually)

Independent Variables:

GE=Government Expenditure (% of GDP)

NX=Net Exports (% of GDP)

DS=Domestic Savings (% of GDP)

INF= Inflation (% of GDP)

DI= Domestic Investment (% of GDP)

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Diagrammatical Review of Variables:

Domestic
Investment

Domestic
Saving

Inflation

Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)

Government
Expenditures

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Net Exports

Variables

Description

Sources

GDP

GDP is the price of final goods and services which

World Data bank

are created in a country in the time period of one

(2013)

year.
Domestic The act or procedure of investing money for

World

Data

Investment

revenues.

(2013)

Government

Government expenditure made expenditure on

State

expenditure

development and non-development expenditure.

Pakistan (2011)

Bank

bank

Of

Here we take combination of both expenditure.

Net Export

Net export minus net imports.

State

Bank

Net exports are the difference between a country's

Pakistan (2011)

total value of exports and total value of imports.


Depending on whether a country imports more goods
or exports more goods, net exports can be a positive
Inflation

or negative value
Inflation means raise in prices due to raise in money

World Data bank

supply. And Consumer Price Index (CPI) were taken,

(2013)

The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a


measure of inflation.
Saving

Saving is mixture of public and private savings.

World Data bank


(2013)

3.3 Specificatioof Variables:

Continue

Chapter 4
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Of

Result and Estimation


Next in full form of thesis not yet.

CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:
Next in full form of thesis not yet.

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