Sei sulla pagina 1di 27

PlantationsSINGAPORE

May 21, 2013

COMPANY NOTE

First Resources Ltd


FR SP / FRLD.SI

Market Cap

AvgDaily Turnover

Free Float

Current

S$1.90

Target

S$2.22

US$2,396m

US$3.41m

31.3%

Previous Target

S$3,010m

S$4.22m

1,584 m shares

Up/downside

LONG TERM

NA
16.9%
Conviction|

Notes from the Field

SHORT TERM(3 MTH)

Elixir of youth
First Resources' 1Q13 results cement our conviction of its superior
operating efficiency over peers. Its young estates offer strong FFB
prospects, partially mitigating lower CPO prices. Low production costs
render it one of the most profitable planters under our coverage.
We initiate coverage with an
Outperform and S$2.22 target price,
based on 12.3x CY14 P/E (1SD above
its 4-year mean). Re-rating catalysts
are expected from higher FFB
production and potential dividend
uplifts when free cash flows
strengthen from 2014.

LEE Wen Ching


T(65) 6210 8604
Ewenching.lee@cimb.com

Ivy NG Lee Fang, CFA


T (60) 3 2084 9697
E ivy.ng@cimb.com

Company Visit

Expert Opinion

Channel Check

Customer Views

Strong FFB growth partially


offsets lower CPO prices

We anticipate palm oil


prices to remain volatile
this year. However the
softer CPO price will
encourage increased
usage of palm oil for food
and non-food uses.
First Resources

Price Close

135
128
122
115
108
102
95
88
82
75

2.0
1.8
1.6

Vol m

15
1.4
10
5
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg

Nov-12

Feb-13

52-week share price range


1.90
2.20

1.54

2.22
Current

Target

We expect additional income from its


refinery expansion. First Resources
currently refines just half of its CPO
output. With a new 600,000-tonne
refinery coming on stream in 2H13,
it will be able to refine its entire CPO
production. This will allow the group
to sell its palm products at higher
prices as refined palm products
attract
lower
export
taxes.
Downstream expansion should also
help the group cope better with
excess supply or high inventories
than pure upstream planters.

Transforming into a cash


cow
Free cash flows should improve
markedly in FY14 when capex scales
down and operating cash flows
improve. We think there is room for
higher dividend payouts if no M&A
opportunities surface.

Financial Summary

Relative to FSSTI (RHS)

2.2

Amid our expectations of lower CPO


prices this year, we advocate stocks
that offer strong FFB growth
prospects to cushion lower ASPs and
higher production costs. First
Resources fares well in this regard.
Its estates are nine years old on
average, and are just entering the
prime of their productivity cycle.
FFB growth from these estates,
coupled with its recent acquisition of
brownfield estates, should jack up its
FFB output by 10% in FY13, we
estimate, although group FFB yields
may
be
diluted
by
the
newly-acquired estates in the near
term.

Additional income stream


from refinery

Revenue (US$m)
Operating EBITDA (US$m)
Net Profit (US$m)
Core EPS (US$)
Core EPS Growth
FD Core P/E (x)
DPS (US$)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/FCFE (x)
Net Gearing
P/BV (x)
Recurring ROE
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
CIMB/consensus EPS (x)

Dec-11A
494.6
333.0
196.4
0.11
53.3%
14.29
0.025
1.65%
6.92
253.7
5.3%
2.51
20.9%

Dec-12A
603.4
370.8
237.1
0.14
20.5%
11.40
0.030
1.98%
6.73
9.5
11.5%
2.17
21.1%

Dec-13F
556.6
319.7
200.0
0.13
(8.3%)
11.98
0.038
2.50%
8.12
43.1
10.5%
1.92
17.0%
0.95

Dec-14F
669.8
374.1
232.2
0.15
16.1%
10.32
0.044
2.91%
6.85
20.7
6.2%
1.70
17.5%

Dec-15F
806.1
447.0
283.8
0.18
22.2%
8.44
0.054
3.55%
5.58
14.0
0.3%
1.49
18.8%

0.93

0.97

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

PEER COMPARISON

Research Coverage
Bloomberg Code
WIL SP
IFAR SP
GGR SP
FR SP

Wilmar International
Indofood Agri Resources
Golden Agri-Resources
First Resources Ltd

Market
SG
SG
SG
SG

Recommendation
OUTPERFORM
UNDERPERFORM
NEUTRAL
OUTPERFORM

Rolling P/BV (x)

Mkt Cap US$m


17,266
1,245
5,826
2,396

Price
3.39
1.09
0.57
1.90

Jan-11

Jan-12

Target Price
3.74
1.02
0.56
2.22

Upside
10.3%
-6.4%
-1.8%
16.9%

Rolling FD P/E (x)

3.5

25

3.0

20

2.5
2.0

15

1.5

10

1.0
5

0.5
0.0
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

0
Jan-09

Jan-13

Jan-13

Indofood Agri Resources

Wilmar International

Indofood Agri Resources

Golden Agri-Resources

First Resources Ltd

Golden Agri-Resources

First Resources Ltd

Peer Aggregate: P/BV vs Recurring ROE

Peer Aggregate: FD P/E vs FD EPS Growth

2.5

16%

2.0

13%

1.5

10%

1.0

6%

0.5

3%

0.0
Jan-09

Jan-10

Wilmar International

0%

Jan-10

Jan-11

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs)

Jan-12

Jan-13

16

40%

14

31%

12

23%

10

14%

5%

-4%

-13%

-21%

0
Jan-09

Jan-14

Recurring ROE (rhs)

-30%

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Rolling FD P/E (x) (lhs)

Jan-13

Jan-14

Fully Diluted EPS Growth (rhs)

Valuation

Wilmar International
Indofood Agri Resources
Golden Agri-Resources
First Resources Ltd

P/E (FD) (x)


Dec-12
Dec-13
13.93
13.92
11.68
18.13
14.15
17.09
10.11
11.98

Dec-14
12.38
16.07
14.16
10.32

Dec-12
1.20
0.89
0.68
2.17

P/BV (x)
Dec-13
1.12
0.85
0.66
1.92

Dec-14
1.05
0.80
0.64
1.70

Dec-12
13.25
6.86
8.96
6.73

EV/EBITDA (x)
Dec-13
13.12
8.27
11.34
8.12

Dec-14
11.97
8.57
9.07
6.85

Dec-14
9.0%
5.1%
4.7%
17.5%

Dividend Yield
Dec-12
Dec-13
1.85%
1.47%
0.00%
0.00%
1.93%
1.20%
1.98%
2.50%

Dec-14
1.65%
0.00%
1.45%
2.91%

Growth and Returns

Wilmar International
Indofood Agri Resources
Golden Agri-Resources
First Resources Ltd

Fully Diluted
Dec-12
-22.5%
-29.6%
-69.3%
20.1%

EPS Growth
Dec-13
Dec-14
0.1%
12.4%
-35.6%
12.8%
-17.2%
20.7%
-15.6%
16.1%

Recurring ROE
Dec-12
Dec-13
8.4%
8.6%
7.8%
4.8%
4.9%
4.0%
21.1%
17.0%

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS


Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

BY THE NUMBERS

Share price info


Share pxperf. (%)

1M

3M

12M

Relative

1.8

-7.7

-7.6

Absolute

6.7

-2.6

Major shareholders
Eight Capital Inc

16.2
% held
63.2

P/BV vs Recurring ROE

FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth

3.0

25.0%

2.5

20.8%

2.0

16.7%

1.5

12.5%

1.0

8.3%

4.2%

FMR

6.3

0.5

DB Intl Trust Singapore

5.6

0.0
Jan-09

0.0%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs)

Jan-14

Recurring ROE (rhs)

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-09

60%
52%
44%
36%
28%
20%
12%
4%
-4%
-12%
-20%
Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs)

Jan-13

Jan-14

FD Core EPS Growth (rhs)

Profit & Loss

Lower FY13 earnings on


account of lower CPO prices,
partially offset by higher
volume

(US$m)
Total Net Revenues
Gross Profit
Operating EBITDA
Depreciation And Amortisation
Operating EBIT
Total Financial Income/(Expense)
Total Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Total Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit
Taxation
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit
Recurring Net Profit
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit

Dec-11A
494.6
345.9
333.0
(23.5)
309.5
(27.8)
0.0
0.0
281.7

Dec-12A
603.4
382.2
370.8
(25.3)
345.5
(19.2)
0.0
0.0
326.3

Dec-13F
556.6
389.6
319.7
(27.5)
292.2
(21.5)
0.0
0.0
270.7

Dec-14F
669.8
468.9
374.1
(33.7)
340.4
(21.5)
0.0
0.0
318.9

Dec-15F
806.1
564.3
447.0
(35.9)
411.0
(21.5)
0.0
0.0
389.5

281.7
(75.8)

326.3
(78.1)

270.7
(59.5)

318.9
(73.4)

389.5
(89.6)

205.9
(9.5)

248.2
(11.1)

211.1
(11.1)

245.6
(13.4)

299.9
(16.1)

196.4
167.0
167.0

237.1
210.2
210.2

200.0
200.0
200.0

232.2
232.2
232.2

283.8
283.8
283.8

Cash Flow

Higher operating cash inflows


and lower investing cash
outflows to boost free cash
flows from FY14

(US$m)
EBITDA
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid
Cashflow From Operations
Capex
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing

Dec-11A
333.0

Dec-12A
370.8

Dec-13F
319.7

Dec-14F
374.1

Dec-15F
447.0

(35.6)

(29.5)

17.0

(3.4)

(4.1)

(40.2)
(29.1)
(51.9)
176.3
(158.3)

(49.1)
(22.7)
(73.0)
196.5
(174.8)

(0.0)
(21.5)
(59.5)
255.6
(200.0)

(0.0)
(21.5)
(73.4)
275.9
(160.0)

0.0
(21.5)
(89.6)
331.8
(160.0)

(40.0)
(198.3)
31.5
17.8

(55.3)
(230.2)
285.2
0.1

0.0
(200.0)
0.0
0.0

0.0
(160.0)
0.0
0.0

0.0
(160.0)
0.0
0.0

(36.7)

(47.5)

(60.0)

(69.7)

(85.1)

11.2
23.8

(10.1)
227.7

0.0
(60.0)

0.0
(69.7)

0.0
(85.1)

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

BY THE NUMBERS

Balance Sheet

Net gearing remains


conservative at 11%

(US$m)
Total Cash And Equivalents
Total Debtors
Inventories
Total Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity
Minority Interests
Total Equity

Dec-11A
210
51
39
17
317
275
0
65
843
1,183
40
48
53
35
176
171
0
224
395
0
572
885
44
928

Dec-12A
405
62
58
36
561
321
0
107
942
1,370
40
0
59
31
131
174
324
145
643
0
773
1,106
51
1,158

Dec-13F
400
66
39
36
541
394
0
107
1,042
1,543
40
0
61
31
133
174
324
145
643
0
775
1,246
62
1,309

Dec-14F
447
74
47
36
603
420
0
107
1,142
1,669
40
0
74
31
145
174
324
145
643
0
788
1,409
76
1,485

Dec-15F
533
84
56
36
709
444
0
107
1,242
1,793
40
0
89
31
160
174
324
145
643
0
803
1,608
92
1,699

Dec-11A
49.9%
28.3%
67.3%
(0.033)
0.60
10.64
26.9%
18.7%
17.48
70.9
121.7
26.8%
28.9%

Dec-12A
22.0%
11.3%
61.5%
(0.084)
0.70
18.02
23.9%
20.0%
20.85
80.5
93.1
23.9%
24.0%

Dec-13F
(7.8%)
(13.8%)
57.4%
(0.087)
0.79
13.57
22.0%
30.0%
24.26
105.9
131.7
16.9%
16.5%

Dec-14F
20.3%
17.0%
55.9%
(0.058)
0.89
15.81
23.0%
30.0%
23.39
78.0
122.5
17.8%
17.6%

Dec-15F
20.4%
19.5%
55.4%
(0.003)
1.01
19.09
23.0%
30.0%
23.39
78.0
122.5
19.8%
19.3%

Dec-11A
132,251
85,699
22.2
19.8%
919

Dec-12A
146,403
98,181
23.0
14.2%
882

Dec-13F
173,003
122,888
19.5
10.4%
822

Dec-14F
191,003
134,309
21.1
18.2%
815

Dec-15F
209,003
148,461
22.1
16.2%
838

Key Ratios
Revenue Growth
Operating EBITDA Growth
Operating EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Per Share (US$)
BVPS (US$)
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)
ROCE (%)

Key Drivers
Planted Estates (ha)
Mature Estates (ha)
FFB Yield (tonnes/ha)
FFB Output Growth (%)
CPO Price (US$/tonne)

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Elixir of youth
1. COMPANY BACKGROUND

Table of Contents
1. COMPANY BACKGROUND

p.5

2. OUTLOOK

p.8

3. RISKS

p.16

4. FINANCIALS

p.17

5. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION

p.21

Notes from the Field

At current prices, demand


is expected to be
well-supported, backed by
consumption growth from
emerging markets.
First Resources

1.1 Integrated palm-oil producer in Indonesia


First Resources is an integrated palm-oil producer based in Indonesia, with
operations spanning from planting and milling to refining. It owns 137,476 ha
of nucleus estates and 12 CPO mills with an operating capacity of 4.05m tonnes
per annum. On top of this, it owns 21,261 ha of plasma estates, which represent
13% of its total estates.
First Resources ranks 10th in our plantations universe in terms of area of
planted estates and mature estates, but is the fifth-largest of listed
Indonesia-based planters. The size of its planted estates trails that of
behemoths such as Sime Darby (552,805 ha) and Golden Agri-Resources
(366,914 ha).
Besides upstream operations, First Resources has a 250,000-tonne p.a. refinery
which processes about half its CPO production (total of 525,831 tonnes in FY12)
into higher-value refined products such as olein and biodiesel.
CPO sales form the bulk of its revenue currently, but its sales mix should
increasingly shift towards refined palm oil as new refining capacity comes on
stream. A new 600,000-tonne refinery will be commissioned in 2H13, allowing
First Resources to processes its entire CPO production in-house. This facility
will also give First Resources the flexibility to refine third-party CPO when
margins are favourable.
Figure 1: First Resources participation in the palm-oil value chain (as at Dec 12)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

1.2 Beginnings
Established in 1992, First Resources started planting that year and
commissioned its first palm-oil mill in 1998. It has been expanding its estates
rapidly since. It was listed on the Singapore Exchange in 2007. Over the past
five years, average new planting rate was over 11,000 ha p.a. The group now
manages 158,737 ha of plantations, runs 12 mills and operates an integrated
value chain. It started refining in 2010 when it commissioned its refinery,
fractionation and biodiesel plants. Although 70% of its planted mature oil-palm
estates and downstream facilities are located in the Riau region, new planting
over the past five years had mostly concentrated in West and East Kalimantan.

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 6: Plantations in the Riau, East and West Kalimantan provinces of Indonesia

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 7: Corporate milestones


2012

2011

2010
2009

2008
2007

2006
2005
2003

2002
2001
1998
1992

Achieved more than 146,406 hectares plantation under management


Commissioned 10th and 11th palm oil mill
Acquired 4,027 hectares of plantation asset in Riau province
Achieved more than 130,000 hectares plantation under management
Commissioned 9th palm oil mill
Acquired 100,000 hectares of landbank in East Kalimantan province
Commissioned refinery, fractionation and biodiesel plants
Began processing activities to further add value to crude palm oil produced in-house
Issued inaugural USD Convertible Bond (US$100 million), listed on Singapore Exchange
Commenced new plantings in West Kalimantan province
Achieved more than 100,000 hectares of plantation under management
Commissioned 8th palm oil mil
Acquired 90,000 hectares of landbank in West Kalimantan province
Listed on the Singapore Exchange
Issued second Rupiah bonds (Rp 500 billion), listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange
Commissioned 7th palm oil mill
Obtained international credit ratings from Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch
Issued inaugural USD 144A-registered bonds (US$160 million), listed on the Singapore Exchange
Commissioned 5th and 6th palm oil mills
Achieved more than 50,000 hectares of plantation under management
Issued inaugural Rupiah bonds (Rp350 billion), listed on the Surabaya Exchange
Commissioned 4th palm oil mill
Opened Research Centre and Training School
Commissioned 3rd palm oil mill
Commissioned 2nd palm oil mill
Commissioned 1st palm oil mill
Group was established and new plantings began
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources is 63.2% owned by Eight Capital, an investment vehicle of the


Fangiono family. The group is managed by brothers Ciliandra Fangiono, CEO,
and Cik Sigih Fangiono, Deputy CEO. Mr Ciliandra Fangiono oversees
strategies and funding while Mr Cik Sigih Fangiono oversees day-to-day
operations.
The stocks trading liquidity has improved since its 2007 listing. Free float has
increased from 17.5% during IPO to 31.3%, as major shareholders addressed
the investment communitys calls to improve free float by placing out treasury
shares and issuing convertible bonds. The group issued convertible bonds in
6

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

2009 to raise US$100m, due in Sep 14 (5.625% p.a. payable semi-annually;


conversion price of S$1.24735). It has since exercised its right to redeem all
outstanding CBs not converted into shares. There are no outstanding CBs.

2. OUTLOOK
2.1 Young estates behind production growth
First Resources young estates are its biggest strength. An average plantation
age of nine years renders it the planter with the second-youngest estates under
our coverage, after BW Plantations. About 24% of its trees are immature (0-3
years old), 32% young (4-7 years old), and 36% in the prime production age of
8-17 years old. Oil-palm trees require three years or so to mature, and do not
reach their peak production age for fresh fruit bunches until eight years after
planting. Their production of fresh fruit bunches gradually declines after the
age of 17.
First Resources young estates can support higher FFB production over the next
few years with manageable increases in production costs, in our view.
We forecast 10% FFB output growth for FY13 from existing estates, led by new
mature areas coming on stream. Higher volumes from nucleus estates should
shield the group from the impact of lower CPO prices.

Figure 8: Some 56% of its oil-palm estates are below seven


years old

Figure 9: Productivity of oil-palm trees is highest between ages


8-17
Title:
Source:

18 years and
above, 9%
Immature, 24%

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

8-17 years, 36%

4-7 years, 32%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 10: Planted estates and new plantings since 1990


ha

ha

160,000

20,000
18,000

140,000

16,000
120,000
14,000
100,000

12,000

80,000

10,000
8,000

60,000

6,000
40,000
4,000

20,000

2,000

1990

1995

2000

Total estate area (LHS)

2005

2010

New planted area (RHS)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.2 Acquisition growth an additional kicker


In addition to growth from the coming of age of its estates, First Resources
production should be boosted by acquisitions. Some 12,600ha of additional
mature estates will be coming on stream in FY13 from its Riau and West
Kalimantan acquisitions.
To recap, the group completed the acquisition of PT Gerbang Sawit in Oct 12 for
US$31.2m and Lynhurst Investment for US$103m in Feb 13. PT Gerbang Sawit
owns 3,500 ha of mature palm-oil estates and 4,000 ha of unplanted land bank
in Riau. Lynhurst owns 8,600 ha of oil-palm estates and 11,500 ha of unplanted
area. The group paid EV/ha of around US$12,000 for Lynhursts estates and
US$10,000 for Gerbang Sawits planted estates, which we deem fair and in line
with market prices.
Its newly-acquired estates produce lower FFB yields, estimated at 10 tonnes/ha
vs. nucleus yields of 22.4 tonnes/ha. But management expects higher yields
towards the groups average within 36 months through better agri practices.
We forecast a decline in FFB yields for the group, stemming purely from its
newly-acquired estates, from 23tonnes/ha in FY12 to 19.5tonnes/ha in FY13.
But the lower yields should be compensated by a larger area of mature estates,
leading to higher FFB production.
Figure 11: Area of planted estates

Figure 12: Area of mature estates

250,000

20%

200,000

Title:
Source:

160,000

18%

30%

140,000
25%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered
in your report

16%
120,000
14%

150,000

20%
100,000

12%
10%

100,000

80,000

8%

15%

60,000
10%

6%
40,000
50,000

4%

5%
20,000

2%
-

0%
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Planted Estates (ha)

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

0%
Dec-11A

% growth

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Mature Estates (ha)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

% growth

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 13: FFB production

Figure 14: CPO production

m tonnes

'000 tonnes

3.5

Title:
Source:

900.0

800.0

3.0

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
700.0

2.5

600.0
2.0

500.0

1.5

400.0
300.0

1.0

200.0
0.5

100.0

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.3 Yielding more than its peers


First Resources operating metrics tower above its peers. Its CPO extraction
rate is the highest among planters under our coverage, at 23.3% vs. 21.6%, on
average. We believe this could be due to the close proximity of its estates to its
mills, which ensures its fresh fruit bunches arrive at the mills with minimal
spoilage. In addition, a large portion (86%) of its fruits processed in FY12 came
from its own estates, allowing for better quality control (FFB harvested at the
point of their maximum oil content).
Its FFB yield of 23 tonnes/ha is the second-highest and well above the
industrys average 19.8 tonnes/ha. We attribute this to: 1) the group's superior
age profile; 2) high mineral soil content plus rainfall of 2.1 metres per annum in
Riau, where most of its estates are located, both ideal for oil-palm trees; and 3)
superior seeds used for planting as well as the adoption of industry best
practices.

Figure 15: Oil extraction rates

Figure 16: FFB yields (tonnes/ha)

23.5%

25.0

23.0%

Title:
Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

23.0
22.5%

21.0

22.0%
21.5%

19.0
21.0%

17.0

20.5%
20.0%

15.0

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.4 Forward sales locked in higher CPO prices


Spot CPO prices are currently 24% lower than a year ago as higher palm-oil
stocks and expectations of record soybean supplies dampen prices. The good
9

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

news is that First Resources has sold forward part of its CPO for the year. As a
result, it was able to book higher CPO prices in 1Q13 against the previous year,
defying the industrys downtrend. The group was also able to outperform its
peers in net-profit growth (+28%).
We are expecting Rotterdam CPO prices to trend lower to an average of US$910
in 2013, before rising to US$950 in 2014 and US$980 in 2015. We expect CPO
prices to weaken in 2013 from a higher palm-oil stockpile, lower biodiesel
demand in Europe as governments scale back their mandates, stronger
palm-oil supply from Malaysia and expectations of soybean bumper harvests.
There is potential for CPO prices to move up in 2Q as palm oil enters its low
production cycle. But this may not last as record soybean crops are expected to
enter the market in 3Q. After which, there could be a price recovery in late 4Q
from slower palm-oil output growth and potentially higher biodiesel mandates
in Malaysia and South America.

Figure 17: Rotterdam CPO prices

Figure 18: Historical CPO ASP for First Resources


US$/tonne

US$/tonne
1,400

Title:
Source:

1000

1,200

919
882

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

800

756

706

1,000

600

800

600

540

400

400

200
200

0
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

2008

2009

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG

2010

2011

2012

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.5 Sensitivity analysis


As a price-taker, First Resources profits are subject to international CPO price
movements. We estimate that every 10% change in CPO prices could swing its
core net profit by 17%.
Figure 19: Earnings sensitivity to CPO prices

CPO price (US$)


FY14 core net profit (US$m)
% chg in net profit

-20%
760
153.2
-34%

-10%
855
192.7
-17%

% chg in CPO price


Base case
950
232.2
0%

+10%
1045
271.7
17%

+20%
1140
311.2
34%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

The group's earnings are also sensitive to its FFB yields as these will affect its
output. We estimate that every 1 tonne/ha change in yields could add or
subtract 8% from the group's core net profits.

10

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 20: Earnings sensitivity to FFB yields


-2 tonnes/ha -1 tonne/ha
Overall FFB yield
19.1
20.1
FY14 core net profit (US$m)
194.8
213.5
% chg in net profit
-16%
-8%

chg in FFB yield (tonnes/ha)


Base case
+1 tonne/ha +2 tonne/ha
21.1
22.1
23.1
232.2
250.8
269.5
0%
8%
16%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

We regressed stock prices correlations to CPO prices since 2007 and found that
First Resources share price is relatively insulated from CPO price volatility,
compared with its peers. Its correlation coefficient of 0.44 is the second-lowest
in our universe, and is below the sectors average of 0.67. That said, there could
be other explanations for the variance, including differences in the planters
business models.

Figure 21: Correlation coefficients for planters' share prices and CPO prices

0.85

0.84
0.80

0.77

0.73

0.73

0.71
0.64

0.61
0.52
0.44

0.42

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG

2.6 Higher yields boost operating efficiency


First Resources operating efficiency has allowed the group to produce CPO at
lower costs per tonne than its peers. This is critical for planters
competitiveness in times of lower CPO prices, such as today. As a result of this
and its better selling prices against peers, the group enjoys higher profitability
for its estates. First Resources generated the second-highest operating profit
per mature ha among its listed peers in FY12, testifying to its strong
management and estates youthfulness.

11

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 22: First Resources' EBITDA per mature ha (US$/ha)

Figure 23: First Resources' cash costs per mature ha (US$/ha)

US$/ha

US$/ha

4,000

1,600

3,500

1,400

3,000

1,200

2,500

1,000

2,000

800

1,500

600

1,000

400

500

200

Title:
Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 24: First Resources has the second-highest profit per mature ha among peers
(US$)
(FY12/12 - US$ per ha)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
IOI*

FR

KLK**

BAL

SIME*

GGR

HAPL

WIL

FGV

IFAR

KAGR

*FY6/12; FY9/12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.7 Sizeable landbank for expansion


Indonesias plans to limit companies estate expansion to 100,000ha will not
affect First Resources growth plans as the group has more than sufficient
landbank to underwrite its future growth via new plantings. It owns 300,000
ha: 158,737 ha planted and 141,263 ha unplanted.
It has a planting target of 15,000-20,000 ha of oil palms per year, and aims to
expand its planted area to 200,000 ha within five years. This should raise its
CPO production to 1m tonnes each year. When it reaches this milestone,
management will take stock and decide whether to expand downstream or
upstream via estate expansion.

12

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 25: Distribution of planted estates as at Dec 12 (ha)

Figure 26: Distribution of land bank (ha)


Title:
Source:

West Kalimantan,
13,275

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
West Kalimantan,
100,000

East Kalimantan,
30,000

Riau, 110,000

Riau, 103,128

East Kalimantan,
90,000

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.8 Now an integrated palm producer, from downstream


expansion
First Resources expansion downstream has transformed it into an integrated
palm-oil producer with structurally higher profit margins. Refining not only
adds to margins but also integrates its operations.
First Resources forayed into refining by commissioning its 250,000-tonne
processing plants in 2010. These refinery, fractionation and biodiesel plants
have enabled the group to refine part of its CPO production into higher-value
products such as RBDPO (refined bleached deodorised palm oil), PFAD (palm
fatty acid distillates), RBD olein, RBD stearin, biodiesel, crude glycerine, PKE
(palm kernel expellers) and PKO (palm kernel oil).
As part of its downstream expansion, a new 600,000-tonne refinery will be
commissioned in 2H13. This will lift its refining capacity to 850,000 tonnes,
allowing First Resources to refine all of its CPO in-house and even refine third
parties CPO when margins are favourable.

2.9 Becoming a cash cow


First Resources is on the cusp of a transformation into a cash cow. Having
planted the seeds of growth in recent years, it is quite ready to reap the fruits of
its labour. Earnings growth should be powered by higher FFB and palm-oil
production as its young estates approach maturity. At the same time, capex will
taper off from FY14 once its refinery expansion is completed. Higher operating
cash inflows and lower investing outflows should strengthen its free cash flows.
By our projections, the group will be able to continue funding its capex purely
with operating cash flows.
We forecast a build-up of cash from US$405m in FY12 to US$533m in FY15.
Our forecasts assume 30% dividend payouts, though there could be room for
higher payouts in the absence of M&As. The group can improve its ROEs by
returning cash to shareholders.

13

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 28: strengthening free cash flows

Figure 27: Operating cash inflows to accelerate while capex


eases
US$m

US$m

350.0

Title:
Source:

200.0

180.0

300.0

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

160.0
250.0

140.0
200.0

120.0
100.0

150.0

80.0

100.0

60.0
50.0

40.0
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

20.0

Dec-15E

Operating cash flow

Dec-11A

Capex

Dec-12A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 30: Dividend payouts, now at 30%, could be higher in the


absence of M&As

Figure 29: Cash to pile up to US$533m by FY15


US$m

US cts

600

6.0

Title:
Source:

500

5.0

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

400

4.0

300

3.0

200

2.0

100

1.0

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 31: SWOT analysis


Strengths
Young estates support organic growth
FFB yields above industry average
Oil extraction rate above industry average
Vertically integrated business model

Opportunities
Sufficient landbank for new plantings
Increased profit pool from midstream expansion
Operating leverage from ongoing expansion

Weaknesses
Geographical concentration in Indonesia
Opex vulnerable to inflation in Indonesia, e.g. wage hikes

Threats
Lower CPO prices
Weather risk
Overcapacity of global refining industry
Competition from Malaysian planters and refiners
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

14

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

3. RISKS
3.1 CPO prices and production volumes
Our 3-year EPS CAGR forecast assumes: 1) Rotterdam CPO prices of US$910 in
2013, US$950 in 2014 and US$980 in 2015; 2) a 15% CAGR for FFB production
volumes; and 3) a 40% CAGR for refining volumes. Lower-than-expected CPO
prices or softer production could result in lower profits. We estimate that every
10% fall in CPO prices could dent its net profits by 17%.

3.2 Yield compression


Our volume CAGR hinges on sustainable CPO yields of 4.6-5.2 tonnes/ha for
the next three years, which appear reasonably conservative against its yield of
5.4 tonnes/ha in FY12. CPO yields had receded from 1.5 tonnes/ha in 4M12 to
1.2 tonnes/ha in 4M13 due to tree stress, but this was still within comfort.
Volumes could be at risk if yields fall below our assumptions for reasons such as
biological tree stress and weather risks such as El Nino.

3.3 Wage inflation


First Resources cash costs should increase as a result of Indonesias wage
inflation. Wages constitute 42% of its cash costs. Fortunately, 70% of its estates
are located in Riau, where the wage hikes are more subdued at 13% vs. East
Kalimantans +49%. Wages could play a role in its future expansion plans. Its
diverse landbank across West and East Kalimantan provides options, in our
view.
Figure 32: First Resources cash costs
Maintenance of fixed
assets, 13%

Freight , 5%
Fertilizer, 40%

Wages, 42%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 33: Minimum wage revisions in Indonesia (Rp)


2012
1,238,000
1,177,000
900,000

Riau
East Kalimantan
West Kalimantan

2013
1,400,000
1,752,073
1,060,000

% chg
13%
49%
18%

SOURCES: CIMB, WWW.WAGEINDICATOR.ORG

3.4 Global economies


We expect major economies to grow at a moderate pace in 2013. In the short
term, the euro zones debt woes and weaker economic prospects could continue
to depress CPO prices through lower demand for edible oils and crude oil.
They could also lead to outflows of speculative investment funds from
commodity markets.

3.5 Policy risks


Planters fortunes are closely bound to government policies, not just in their
countries of operations but in competitors and customers markets. Export
15

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

taxes, quotas, price ceilings or any other form of market intervention could
alter the prospects of all industry players along the value chain.
The Malaysian government recently modified the country's palm-oil export tax
to help its downstream sector in late 2012. India has also been revising its
palm-oil import duties to help its domestic refining sector. Any changes in
government export taxes for palm-oil products or import duty structures may
affect trade flows for palm oil.

3.6 Anti-palm oil lobby


The use of palm oil has increasingly run into public opposition in Western
countries, from deforestation resistance and allegations that it can cause health
problems. Palm-oil health warnings have gained much publicity in the US but
are also being disproved by academic research.
The Round Table on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a non-profit organisation,
was formed in 2004 to help palm-oil producers deal with environmental
charges levied at palm oil by getting their palm oil certified. The initiative
involves developing a certification system for the production of sustainable
palm oil based on a set of principles and criteria to counter concerns over
environmental damage caused by the development of palm oil. A senator in
France recently proposed a tax of 300 per tonne on foods that use palm,
coconut and palm-kernel products, on top of the 100 per tonne tax. This has
been dubbed the "Nutella tax" due to the presence of palm oil in chocolates and
nut spreads. It has been met with protests from Malaysian, Indonesia and food
manufacturers. We understand that France's national assembly has rejected the
proposal.
Nevertheless, if the anti-palm oil campaign gains momentum, CPO demand
could be hurt, thereby widening its price discount to other edible oils.

3.7 Environmentalists and NGOs


Planters are expected to run their operations in a sustainable manner and
comply with environmental regulations. For instance, planters must be careful
not to threaten orang utans and their habitats in the course of land clearing. It
is not uncommon for non-governmental organisations to petition against
planters operations. These could result in legal recourse and disruptions to
their planting.

4. FINANCIALS
4.1 Biological assets
First Resources reports gains from changes in the fair value of its biological
assets typically in the fourth quarter of each year, in compliance with IFRS.
Such gains accounted for 15-39% of its reported net profits in FY09-12, but the
proportion has been steadily declining owing to a faster rate of profit growth.
As these gains are non-operational, we strip them out to derive our core net
profits. First Resources assumes an average value of US$6,709/nucleus ha in
deriving the value of its biological assets, which we find reasonable.

16

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 34: Biological gains vs. net profits

Figure 35: Reported vs. core net profits


US$m

US$m
250

45%

250

Title:
Source:

200

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

40%
200

35%
30%

150

25%

150

20%

100

15%

100

10%

50

5%
50

0%
Dec-09A

Dec-10A

Dec-11A

Dec-12A
-

Gain from biological assets

Dec-09A

Dec-10A

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Reported net profit


Reported net profit

Biological gains / reported net profit (%)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Core net profit

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

4.2 Higher FFB production to compensate for lower CPO


prices
First Resources net profit CAGR in the last three years was 42%, led by CPO
price inflation (+63% over the three years) and higher FFB production (12%
CAGR). We expect its profit CAGR to moderate to 10% in the next three years
as a result of lower CPO prices, partially buffered by higher FFB volumes.
Rotterdam CPO prices averaged US$998 in 2012. We expect prices to fall to
US$910 in 2013, US$950 in 2014 and US$980 in 2015. This will dampen First
Resources ASPs from US$882 in 2012 to a projected US$822 in 2013, US$815
in 2014 and US$838 in 2015. The groups 2013 ASP would have been lower had
it not locked in forward sales at favourable prices. Higher FFB production from
organic and acquisition growth should help it cope with lower CPO prices.

Figure 36: First Resources' average CPO selling prices

Figure 37: FFB production

US$/tonne

m tonnes

950

Title:
Source:

3.5

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

900

3.0

850

2.5
800

2.0
750

700

1.5
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

17

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 38: Revenue forecasts

Figure 39: Core net profit forecasts

US$m

US$m

800

300

Title:
Source:

750

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
700

250

650
600

200

550
500

150

450
400

100
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

4.3 Margin compression in FY13


Margins are set to decline for both its plantations and refining operations.
Plantation margins should be affected by lower CPO prices and higher estate
costs, in keeping with a larger mature area and higher labour costs. We project
a decline in EBITDA margins from US$659/tonne in FY12 to US$587/tonne in
FY13, before improving to US$596/tonne in FY14, based on assumed lower
CPO prices and 6-7% p.a. increases in unit production costs.
Refining margins may decline from new capacity added from 2013. Indonesias
refining industry is bracing for an influx of new capacity in response to the
governments revamped palm-oil export tax structure which incentivises
domestic refining. First Resources believes that excess refining capacity could
suppress its refining margins below US$50/tonne in the long run.

Figure 40: Plantations and palm-oil mills: EBITDA/tonne

Figure 41: Refinery and processing: EBITDA/tonne

US$/tonne

US$/tonne

700

200

650

150

600

100

550

50

Title:
Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

500

0
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

4.4 Low gearing


Net gearing has been conservative at less than 20%. We do not foresee First
Resources taking on substantially higher debt since its capex should taper off
after 2013. Its strengthening cash position will lower its net gearing, in our

18

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

estimation. We assume a decline in its net gearing from 11.5% in FY12 to 10.5%
in FY13 and 6.2% in FY14.

Figure 42: Net debt

Figure 43: Net gearing

US$m
160

16.0%

140

14.0%

Title:
Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

120

12.0%

100

10.0%

80

8.0%

60

6.0%

40

4.0%

20

2.0%

0.0%

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

4.5 Strengthening cash flows


First Resources has guided for lower capex from FY14 onwards. It had spent
US$175m on biological assets and fixed assets in FY12. It expects to spend
US$200m in FY13 (US$40m for the construction of its new refinery), after
which capex should fall to US$160m in FY14.
Free cash flows should tick up in 2014, backed by improved operating cash
flows (assuming higher CPO prices and FFB volumes) allied with lower capex.

Figure 44: Operating cash flow

Figure 45: Investing cash flow

US$m

US$m

350

Dec-11A
-

300

Title:
Source:

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
(50)

250

200

(100)

150
(150)
100

(200)

50

Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

(250)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

19

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 46: Financing cash flow

Figure 47: Free cash flow

US$m

US$m

250

200

Title:
Source:

200

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
150

150
100

100

50
Dec-11A

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

Dec-14E

Dec-15E
50

(50)
(100)
-

Dec-11A

(150)

Dec-12A

Dec-13E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-14E

Dec-15E

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

4.6 Superior earnings growth


First Resources stands out for its superior earnings-growth prospects in our
coverage universe. In the last three years, its earnings had grown by a 28%
CAGR vs. the industrys 14% average. We project 10.5% for the next three,
which implies further outperformance over the industrys anticipated 0.8%
earnings growth.
First Resources superior outlook can be attributed to: 1) its young estates and
FFB growth, providing buffers to lower CPO prices; 2) additional income
streams from its new refining capacity; and 3) operating metrics such as
above-average FFB and OER yields.

Figure 48: Last three years: EPS CAGR for First Resources vs.
industry

Figure 49: Next three years: EPS CAGR for First Resources vs.
industry

30.0%

12.0%

Title:
Source:

25.0%

10.0%

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

20.0%

8.0%

15.0%

6.0%

10.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Industry average

First Resources

Industry average

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

First Resources

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

5. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION


5.1 Relative outperformer
First Resources stock had outperformed its peers in the last 12 months. The
regional sector had shed an average of 8% due to declines in CPO prices.
Singapore-listed planters had given up 6% on average, underperforming the

20

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

STIs 19% gain. First Resources has defied this with a 12% gain: in pole
position.

Figure 50: Planters had underperformed the STI in the last 12 months, but First
Resources was a relative outperformer
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

-25%
-30%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 51: Rotterdam CPO prices had fallen 24% over the past 12 months
1,100

1,050
1,000

950
900

850
800

750
700
May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

5.2 Strong FFB growth to back further outperformance


We are not bullish on CPO prices, but for investors seeking exposure to this
sector, we would advocate stocks with strong FFB growth prospects. First
Resources offers this. At 14.9% average FFB growth forecast for the next three
years, First Resources should offer the second-highest growth rate in the sector.
All else being equal, this implies its earnings should outperform the sectors, as
should its share price.

21

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 52: FFB output growth (%), 2013-15

Figure 53: Average FFB output growth (%)

FGV

FGV
Dec-15F

IOI

Dec-14F

IOI

HAPL

HAPL
Dec-13F

SIME

SIME

2.0%

Title:
Source:

2.6%
3.4%
4.0%

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

AALI

AALI

4.4%

GGR

GGR

4.6%

WIL

WIL

IFAR

IFAR

SGRO

SGRO

LSIP

LSIP

8.2%

SIMP

SIMP

8.2%

KLK

KLK

GENP

GENP

FR

FR

BWPT

BWPT

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

0.0%

35.0%

5.0%
5.5%
7.6%

8.9%
12.5%

14.9%
30.6%
5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

5.3 Cheap valuations, superior earnings


First Resources is the cheapest planter in Singapore and among the cheapest in
the region. It trades at 10.3x CY14 P/E vs. its local peers 12.6x and regional
peers 15.3x, on average. To us, its discounts are unjustified, in view of our
3-year EPS CAGR of 10.5% vs. the industrys 0.8%.
First Resources also trades at 1.9x P/BV, a 17% ROE vs. the sectors 1.5x and 9%
respectively. Its enterprise value per planted hectare (EV/ha) of US$19,160 is
below the industrys US$21,709 average.

Figure 54: EV per planted ha


US$ per ha
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

5.4 Initiate coverage with Outperform


We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and S$2.22 target price, based
on 12.3x CY14 P/E, 1 SD above its 4-year mean. Although this appears rich
relative to its historical trading band, we note that the stocks short listing
history skews its data. At our target, First Resources would be trading at a 19%
discount to its peers. Re-rating catalysts could stem from higher FFB
production and potential dividend uplifts when free cash flows increase from
FY14.

22

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Figure 55: 12M forward core P/E


16.0

Figure 56: Current P/BV


Title:

2.7

+2SD: 13.9x

14.0

+2SD:
2.6x
Source:

2.5

Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report

+1SD: 11.6x

+1SD: 2.3x

12.0
2.3
10.0

Avg: 2.1x

Avg: 9.3x

2.1

8.0
-1SD: 1.9x

1.9

-1SD: 7.0x

6.0

1.7

4.0

-2SD: 1.6x

-2SD: 4.7x

2.0
Dec-08

Sep-09

Jun-10

Mar-11

Dec-11

1.5
Dec-09

Sep-12

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 57: Peers Comparison

Company
Singapore
First Resources Ltd
Golden Agri-Resources
Indofood Agri Resources
Mewah International
Wilmar International
Singapore average
Malaysia
Felda Global Ventures
Genting Plantations
Hap Seng Plantations
IOI Corporation
Jaya Tiasa Holdings
Kuala Lumpur Kepong
Sime Darby Bhd
Malaysia average
Indonesia
Astra Agro Lestari
BW Plantation
London Sumatra
Salim Invomas Pratama
Sampoerna Agro
Indonesia average

Recom.

Price
(lcl curr)

Target
Price
(lcl curr)

Market
Cap
(US$ m)

FR SP
GGR SP
IFAR SP
MII SP
WIL SP

Outperform
Neutral
Underperform
Underperform
Outperform

1.90
0.57
1.09
0.46
3.39

2.22
0.56
1.02
0.46
3.74

2,396
5,826
1,245
552
17,266

12.0
17.5
18.1
24.8
13.6
14.4

FGV MK
GENP MK
HAPL MK
IOI MK
JT MK
KLK MK
SIME MK

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Underperform
Neutral

4.62
9.00
2.71
5.35
2.24
21.74
9.50

4.32
8.70
2.70
5.53
1.82
18.18
9.50

5,592
2,265
719
11,331
719
7,681
18,940

AALI IJ
BWPT IJ
LSIP IJ
SIMP IJ
SGRO IJ

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Underperform
Neutral

17,700
1,010
1,640
830.0
1,940

19,000
950.0
1,800
864.0
2,000

2,856
419
1,147
1,345
376

Bloomberg
Ticker

Average (all)

3-year EPS
CAGR (%)

P/BV (x)
CY2013

Recurring
ROE (%)
CY2013

Dividend
Yield (%)
CY2013

10.3
14.4
16.1
19.9
12.1
12.6

10.5%
2.7%
-10.2%
13.4%
9.0%
7.3%

1.92
0.66
0.85
0.95
1.12
0.99

17.0%
4.0%
4.8%
3.9%
8.6%
7.2%

2.5%
1.2%
0.0%
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%

29.5
21.9
16.2
20.6
34.5
23.7
16.9
20.1

22.6
18.0
13.5
19.5
17.4
20.4
16.4
18.3

-2.9%
9.6%
7.4%
-2.3%
26.6%
7.8%
-3.6%
-4.4%

2.64
1.85
1.09
2.42
1.24
3.14
2.00
2.23

9.1%
8.8%
6.9%
12.0%
3.8%
13.5%
12.1%
11.3%

1.7%
1.4%
3.7%
2.4%
0.6%
3.3%
3.0%
2.6%

13.8
14.1
10.7
18.8
11.2
13.7

12.7
8.8
9.4
16.2
9.7
11.9

-4.8%
34.3%
6.2%
-13.9%
7.7%
-0.6%

2.94
2.17
1.63
0.94
1.25
1.70

21.8%
16.3%
15.9%
5.0%
11.7%
12.7%

4.2%
1.4%
4.0%
2.1%
1.9%
3.4%

17.2

15.3

0.8%

1.54

9.2%

2.3%

Core P/E (x)


CY2013 CY2014

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS, BLOOMBERG

23

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

DISCLAIMER
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where
such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound
by the limitations contained herein (including the Restrictions on Distributions set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This publication
is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means
or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
Unless otherwise specified, this report is based upon sources which CIMB considers to be reasonable. Such sources will, unless otherwise specified, for market data, be market data and
prices available from the main stock exchange or market where the relevant security is listed, or, where appropriate, any other market. Information on the accounts and business of
company(ies) will generally be based on published statements of the company(ies), information disseminated by regulatory information services, other publicly available information and
information resulting from our research.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments
contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation
that the matters referred to therein will occur. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments may go down as well as up and those
investing may, depending on the investments in question, lose more than the initial investment. No report shall constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of CIMB or its affiliates
to any person to buy or sell any investments.
CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this
research report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its
related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting
commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking,
advisory, underwriting or placement services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report.
CIMB or its affiliates may enter into an agreement with the company(ies) covered in this report relating to the production of research reports. CIMB may disclose the contents of this report
to the company(ies) covered by it and may have amended the contents of this report following such disclosure.
The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any
and all of the issuers or securities analysed in this report and were prepared independently and autonomously. No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations(s) or view(s) in this report. CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this research report from receiving any compensation,
incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. Information barriers and other
arrangements may be established where necessary to prevent conflicts of interests arising. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is based on his/their coverage of
company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the research personnel involved in the preparation of this report may also
participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above. In reviewing this research report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may
give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request.
Reports relating to a specific geographical area are produced by the corresponding CIMB entity as listed in the table below. The term CIMB shall denote, where appropriate, the relevant
entity distributing or disseminating the report in the particular jurisdiction referenced below, or, in every other case, CIMB Group Holdings Berhad ("CIMBGH") and its affiliates, subsidiaries
and related companies.
Country
Australia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
India
Malaysia
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand

CIMB Entity
CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited
CIMB Securities Limited
PT CIMB Securities Indonesia
CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited
CIMB Investment Bank Berhad
CIMB Research Pte. Ltd.
CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch
CIMB Securities Limited, Taiwan Branch
CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd.

Regulated by
Australian Securities & Investments Commission
Securities and Futures Commission Hong Kong
Financial Services Authority of Indonesia
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
Securities Commission Malaysia
Monetary Authority of Singapore
Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service
Financial Supervisory Commission
Securities and Exchange Commission Thailand

(i) As of May 21, 2013CIMB has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following
company or companies covered or recommended in this report:
(a) Felda Global Ventures, Genting Plantations, Golden Agri-Resources, Indofood Agri Resources, IOI Corporation, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Sime Darby Bhd, Wilmar International
(ii) As of May 21, 2013, the analyst(s) who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any
other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report:
(a) The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CIMB may or may not issue regular reports
on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the event
of a material change to the information contained in this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB or any of its
affiliates does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and
opinion contained in this report. Neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to
any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.
This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB and its affiliates clients generally and does not have
regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are
not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof.
Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation
and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of
the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.
Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited (CSAL) (ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence number
240 530). CSAL is a Market Participant of ASX Ltd, a Clearing Participant of ASX Clear Pty Ltd, a Settlement Participant of ASX Settlement Pty Ltd, and, a participant of Chi X Australia Pty
Ltd.This research is only available in Australia to persons who are wholesale clients (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is supplied solely for the use of such
wholesale clients and shall not be distributed or passed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of
the individual recipient.
France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection
with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial instrument.
Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities Limited (CHK) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type
24

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered
in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If
the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are
unaffected. CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part
of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in
whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. Unless permitted to do so by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue or have in its possession
for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at, or the
contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong).
India: This report is issued and distributed in India by CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited (CIMB India) which is registered with SEBI as a stock-broker under the Securities and
Exchange Board of India (Stock Brokers and Sub-Brokers) Regulations, 1992 and in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 4 (g) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India
(Investment Advisers) Regulations, 2013, CIMB India is not required to seek registration with SEBI as an Investment Adviser.
The research analysts, strategists or economists principally responsible for the preparation of this research report are segregated from the other activities of CIMB India and they have
received compensation based upon various factors, including quality, accuracy and value of research, firm profitability or revenues, client feedback and competitive factors. Research
analysts', strategists' or economists' compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed or proposed to be performed by CIMB India or its
affiliates.
Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CIMB Securities Indonesia (CIMBI). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such
recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens wherever
they are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (CIMB). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are
subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such
recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part
of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in
whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the purposes of their
business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (CIMBR). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from,
or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of
the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to update
its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBR
accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on
the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed
on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR..
As ofMay 21, 2013, CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report.
South Korea: This report is issued and distributed in South Korea by CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch ("CIMB Korea") which is licensed as a cash equity broker, and regulated by
the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service of Korea.
The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change, and this report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in
connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial investment instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of
any financial investment instrument.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only, and no part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any
means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB Korea.
Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to
any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden.
Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have not been and will not be registered with
the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through a
public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval of the
Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China.
Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof
and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such
recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No
part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person
in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS.
Corporate Governance Report:
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed
to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS does
not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
ScoreRange
90 100
80 89
70 79
Below 70 or No Survey Result
Description
Excellent
Very Good
Good
N/A
United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in
the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or
governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to
any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale of
investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates.
United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (CIMB UK). CIMB UK is

25

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely
directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in
matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the Order); (c) are persons
falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Order; (d) are outside the United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an invitation
or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which this report
relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This report is directed only at relevant
persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant
persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does not constitute independent "investment
research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal
requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB Research
Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as
"U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business
activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S.
Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a
recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member
and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of
CIMB Securities (USA) Inc.
Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors
as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )
Price Close

2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6

1.4
1.2

1.0
May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 30 April 2013
1002 companies under coverage
Rating Distribution (%)

Investment Banking clients (%)

Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy

51.4%

7.8%

Neutral

35.1%

4.7%

Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell

13.5%

4.9%

Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return
by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant benchmark's total
return.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in
line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total
return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to


underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return
by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total
return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to
underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan
Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market
volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

26

First Resources Ltd


May 21, 2013

Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months.

Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal
number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better) or -10% (or worse), or
(ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +10% to -10%;
both over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number
of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily
outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2012.
AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AEONTS Good, AMATA - Very Good, ANAN not available, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH not available, BCP - Excellent, BEC - Very Good, BGH - not available, BJC Very Good, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS Excellent, CCET - Good, CENTEL Very Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, EGCO
Excellent, ERW Excellent, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very
Good, ITD Very Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN Excellent, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, PTTEP Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS Excellent, SAMART Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very
Good, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Very Good, SRICHA not available, SSI not available, STA - Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Excellent, THCOM Very
Good, TICON Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TTW Very Good, TUF - Very Good, VGI not available, WORK
Good.

27

Potrebbero piacerti anche