Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

2/19/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
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IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

Feb 19: Export Sales at 7:30am & Cattle on Feed at 2:00pm Last Trade
Options for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal
Feb 22: Export Inspection at 10:00am
Feb 23: Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Feb 25: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 28: Export Inspections at 10:00am First Notice for March Chi, KC,
MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal

Corn:

up 0-1

Wheat:

mixed

Beans:

down 0-2

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:
Crude:

up .200
down .90

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

455-0 on
02/12/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 366-4

20 Day MA 469-4

20 Day MA 875-3

50 Day MA 365-4

50 Day MA 473-5

50 Day MA 874-2

100 Day MA 374-6

100 Day MA 489-0

100 Day
MA

879-6

Corn: ---Night Session Close: May up 04 at 3702 Dec up 02 at 3866

Opening the night at 3692, May traded to a session low of 3686. Trend line support may be found near 3684 while the 10 day moving average stands at 3674. Further support is
possible from the Feb-12 low of 3632. Posting a session high at 3704, resistance in the 370 region is likely and strengthened by the 20 and 50 day moving averages at 3712 and
3706, respectively. The previous session high of 3724 may offer further resistance.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: May down 06 at 8820 Nov unchanged at 8904
Opening the night at 8822, May posted a session low at 8810 and falling short of the previous session low of 8806. Moving average support from the 20 and 50 day stands at 8782
and 8776 respectively while trend line support is near 8752. Posting a session high at 8844, the 100 day moving average stands at 8840 while the recent Feb-17 high stands at

8870 and the Feb-02 high stands at 8904.

Wheat: ---Night Session Close: May up 02 at 4682 Sept unchanged at 4854
May opened the night session at 4680 and posted a session low at 4664. Moving average support from the 10 day stands at 4666. Taking out the previous session low, further
support is possible at the 4604 double bottom before the standing contract low of 4592. Trading to a session high of 4690, resistance is possible in the 472-473 region while the 20
day moving average is located at 4744 and the 50 day is at 4792.
News:
--- Export Sales:
Wheat range 200,000-400,000; actual of 253,600 for 15/16 and 54,200 for 16/17
Corn range 600,000-1,000,000; actual of 1,050,700 for 15/16 and 247,200 for 16/17
Soybean range 400,000-700,000; actual of 567,000 for 15/16 and 28,700 for 16/17
Soymeal range 100,000-250,000; actual of 111,400 for 15/16 and 400 for 16/17
Soyoil range 4,000-20,000; actual of 12,700 for 15/16
--- USDA announced sale of 101,600 MT of corn to Japan for 15/16
--- Ethanol Production Report
Average production of 975,000 barrels per day with a weekly corn consumption of 102.38 million bushels. Total ethanol production for the week stands at 6.825 million barrels with
stocks rising to 23.218 million barrels vers 22.956 last week; up 1.14% vers last week and up 10.12% vers last year. Demand rose from 6.189 million barrels to 6.563 while average
profit margins remain negative but improving vers last week.
--- Standard & Poor cut Saudi Arabias credit rating from A+ to A- following a downgrade in Brazil earlier this week over economic stress due to low crude oil prices.
--- Hitting a record high for the third week in the last month, crude oil inventories rose last week by 2.1 million barrels to 504.1 million, shy of the expected 3.9 million build.
--- Large Ag dealers such as Cargill and Louis Dreyfus has announced they will stop dealing in fertilizer and agrochemicals in parts of Europe and Africa to try and limit risk exposure
with low crop prices.
--- Russian Deputy Prime Minster stated the government has not come to a decision about adjustments to the current wheat export duty.
--- On Thursday, the traditional funds sold 3,000 soybeans, 3,000 soyoil, 6,000 corn and 6,000 wheat. They are estimated net short 60,500 soybeans, 47,800 soymeal, 91,000 corn
and 80,000 wheat while being long 46,900 soyoil.
--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week

121.975 on

52 Week

143.200 on

52 Week

53.975 on

Low

12/17/15

Low

12/17/15

Low

11/17/15

20 Day MA 133.690

20 Day MA 161.093

20 Day MA 64.460

50 Day MA 131.865

50 Day MA 159.532

50 Day MA 61.282

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

134.422

168.726

62.496

Nothing but positive territory trading in the cattle markets through three trading sessions this week. I would say that this will certainly have owners feeling good about where cash may
trade but a quick look this afternoon shows bids backing off from $131 to $129. Asking prices holding at $137. Ideas that the cash market will rally into the spring helped to support the
two-day surge higher but short-term cash market direction is still a bit uncertain.
While the futures board has been higher (April contract up $5.40 on the week), cutouts are sputtering. Thursdays midday cutout was down .91 to 213.44. This is down from 218.19
previous week. Not exactly constructive to higher prices.
The USDA estimated cattle slaughter came in at 100,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 301,000 head, down from 323,000 last week at this time and
down from 309,000 a year ago. There is still a general feeling in the market that the tightening supply into the spring will support.
Feeder Index up .84 to 157.79.
For Friday's USDA Cattle-on-Feed report, traders see January placements at 99.6% of last year and Marketings in January at 97.8%. This would leave February 1st On-feed supply at
99.8% of last year.

Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us
at 312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.