Climate  Change:

Cutting  Through  the  Noise

Anthony  J.  Broccoli

Director,  Center  for  Environmental  Prediction
Department  of  Environmental  Sciences
Rutgers  University
UU-­UNO  Spring  Seminar  2010
New  York,  NY
April  8,  2010
Global  warming?

Winter  2009-­2010

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2010²snowiest  month  on  
record)
Temperature  anomalies  during  2009-­10  winter  

Source: J. Hansen, NASA/GISS

Weather  vs.  Climate

Source: ClimateStations.com
Source: Climate Prediction Center
Source: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Northern  Hemisphere  Temperature  Reconstructions

´,WFDQEHVDLGZLWKDKLJKOHYHORIFRQILGHQFHWKDWglobal mean surface temperature

was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable
period during the preceding four centuriesµ
´«WKHFRPPLWWHHILQGVLWSODXVLEOHWKDWthe Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the
last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the
preceding millenniumµ National Research Council
Source: Polar Research Group,
Univ. of Illinois
Changes  in  glacier  mass
Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change

The  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  is  

the  leading  body  for  the  assessment  of  climate  
change,  established  by  the  United  Nations  
Environment  Programme  (UNEP)  and  the  World  
Meteorological  Organization  (WMO)  to  provide  the  
world  with  a  clear  scientific  view  on  the  current  
state  of  climate  change  and  its  potential  
environmental  and  socio-­economic  consequences.

The  IPCC  is  a  scientific  body. It  reviews  and  

assesses  the  most  recent  scientific,  technical  and  
socio-­economic  information  produced  worldwide  
relevant  to  the  understanding  of  climate  change.  It  
does  not  conduct  any  research  nor  does  it  monitor  
climate  related  data  or  parameters.  Thousands  of  
scientists  from  all  over  the  world  contribute  to  the  
work  of  the  IPCC  on  a  voluntary  basis. Review  is  
an  essential  part  of  the  IPCC  process,  to  ensure  an  
objective  and  complete  assessment  of  current  
information.  Differing  viewpoints  existing  within  
the  scientific  community  are  reflected  in  the  IPCC  
reports.
 ³7KHXQHTXLYRFDOGHWHFWLRQRIWKHHQKDQFHGJUHHQKRXVHHIIHFW
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Climate Change ² The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990)

³7KHbalance  of  evidence suggests

DGLVFHUQLEOHKXPDQLQIOXHQFHRQJOREDOFOLPDWH´
Climate Change 1995 ² The Second Assessment of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

³0RVWRIWKHREVHUYHGZDUPLQJRYHUWKHODVW\HDUVLV likely to  have  

EHHQGXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQJUHHQKRXVHJDVFRQFHQWUDWLRQV´
Climate Change 2000 ² The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC

³0RVWRIWKHREVHUYHGLQFUHDVHLQJOREDOO\DYHUDJHGWHPSHUDWXUHV
since  the  mid-­20th  century  is very  likely due  to  the
observed  increase  in  anthropogenic  greenhouse  gas  
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Climate Change 2007 ² The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
What  Are  Climate  Models?
Coupled  Climate  Model  Schematic
Blue: Natural
Pink: Natural + Human-induced
Future  Emissions  Scenarios
Projections  of  Future  Climate
Simulating  Future  Climate  Change

Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Potential  Climate  Change  Impacts
Global  Impacts  of  Climate  Change
Report  by  IPCC  Working  Group  II  on  Impacts,  Adaptation  and  
Vulnerability was  released  on  6  April  2007.  Some  of  the  
highlights  from  this  report:

‡ There  will  be  some  winners,  but  more  losers

‡ Densely  populated  coastal  regions  will  face  increased  
pressures  from  sea  level  rise  and  more  extreme  weather
‡ Poor  communities  and  stressed  ecosystems  will  suffer  most,  as  they  
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‡ RIZRUOG¶VVSHFLHVDUHDOUHDG\UHVSRQGLQJWRFKDQJH
Why  Is  Global  Sea  Level  Rising?
‡ Thermal  expansion
Warmer  water  is  less  dense  
than  colder  water.

‡ Melting  of  glaciers  and  

ice  caps
Water  released  by  the  melting  
of  ice  on  land  adds  to  the  
volume  of  the  oceans.  Melting  
and  calving  of  Greenland  and  
Antarctic  ice  sheets  depends  
on  the  details  of  how  the  ice  
flows).
Why  Is  Global  Sea  Level  Rising?
‡ Thermal  expansion
Warmer  water  is  less  dense  
than  colder  water.

‡ Melting  of  glaciers  and  

ice  caps
Water  released  by  the  melting  
of  ice  on  land  adds  to  the  
volume  of  the  oceans.  Melting  
and  calving  of  Greenland  and  
Antarctic  ice  sheets  depends  
on  the  details  of  how  the  ice  
flows).
Why  Is  Global  Sea  Level  Rising?
Surface  melt  area  in  Greenland

Source: Konrad Steffen

Global  mean  sea  level  changes
Sea  level  projection  based  on  empirical  relationship  
between  temperature  and  sea  level

Source: Vermeer and Rahmstorf, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 2009

 March  13,  2010:

Extensive  flooding  in  central  New  

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March  2010  wettest  March  on  record  
statewide.

Source: The Courier News

March  30,  2010:

Record  flooding  in  Rhode  Island;;  

Patuxet  River  crests  5  feet  above  
previous  record  flood;;  March  2010  
wettest  month  on  record  at  
3URYLGHQFHZLWK´LQFKHVRI
precipitation.

Source: The Providence Journal

 Warmer
Ļ
More
Precipitation

Warmer
Ļ
More
Evaporation
Simulated  Changes  in  Precipitation

Relative changes in precipitation (%) for the period 2090²2099, relative to 1980²1999.
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change.
 Index of change in precipitation intensity
(amount / wet day)

Mid-range climate scenario ± Nine model average (2080-2099

relative to 1980-1999). Figure courtesy of Claudia Tebaldi
 Index of change in number of
consecutive dry days

Mid-range climate scenario ± Nine model average (2080-2099

relative to 1980-1999). Figure courtesy of Claudia Tebaldi
 ³«WKHUHLVDQLQFUHDVHGFKDQFHRILQWHQVHSUHFLSLWDWLRQ
and  flooding  due  to  the  greater  water-­holding  capacity  
of  a  warmer  atmosphere.  This  has  already  been  
observed  and  is  projected  to  continue  because  in  a  
warmer  world,  precipitation  is  concentrated  into  more  
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New  Brunswick,  NJ,  April  16,  2007

John  Munson/The  Star-­Ledger
Climate  change  in  the  news
Northern  Hemisphere  Temperature  Reconstructions

´,WFDQEHVDLGZLWKDKLJKOHYHORIFRQILGHQFHWKDWglobal mean surface temperature

was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable
period during the preceding four centuriesµ
´«WKHFRPPLWWHHILQGVLWSODXVLEOHWKDWthe Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the
last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the
preceding millenniumµ National Research Council
Public  opinion  about  global  warming

Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Oct. 2009
 Global  Warming  Not  A  Top  Priority

Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Jan. 2009
:K\FOLPDWHFKDQJHLVQ¶WD³KRW-­EXWWRQLVVXH´

‡ Climate  change  is  not  the  result  of  malevolence.

‡ Climate  change  does  not  violate  longstanding  cultural  

traditions.

‡ Climate  change  is  perceived  as  a  future  rather  than  an  

immediate  threat.

‡ Climate  change  proceeds  gradually.

Source: Daniel Gilbert, Harvard University, Los Angeles Times, July 2006
Historical  carbon  emissions  by  country
Future  Emissions  Scenarios

Some scenarios show

Even with aggressive
All scenarios show decreased emissions
reductions in emissions,
increasing emissions in latter half of 21st
CO2 would rise to 2x
during next several century
preindustrial levels
decades
 The  Atmospheric  CO2 Balance

Human-produced emissions of CO2

Uptake of CO2 by ocean,

vegetation, and solid earth
Climate  impact  depends  on  cumulative  emissions

Source: Zickfield et al., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 2009

More  warming  is  in  the  pipeline

Future emissions

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Warming to date
 Stabilization  Wedges
Billions of Tons
16 16 GtC/y
Carbon Emitted
per Year

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Goal: In 50 years, same

global emissions as today
8 Historical
emissions Flat path

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University
15  Wedge  Strategies  in  4  Categories

Energy Efficiency &

Conservation (4)

16 GtC/y

Fuel Switching Renewable Fuels

(1) Stabilization
Stabilization & Electricity (4)
Triangle

CO2 Capture 8 GtC/y

Forest and Soil
2007 2057
& Storage (3) Storage (2)
Nuclear Fission (1)

Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

What  Should  We  Do  About  Global  Warming?
‡ Not  just  a  scientific  question.
‡ Policymakers  must  balance  a  variety  of  considerations.
‡ Your  opinion  counts  just  as  much  as  mine.
‡ There  are  no  easy  answers.
‡ &RQVHTXHQFHVRIWRGD\¶VDFWLRQVZLOOEHIHOWGHFDGHVWR
centuries  in  the  future.
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